New War?

[hytga]

http://www.bakutoday.net/view.php?d=8496

Renewed war might enforce sanctions on Azerbaijan

 

Baku Today 01/04/2004 12:24

 

Armenian -Azerbaijani conflict over Artsax might grow into war as long as Azeri lands are under Armenian occupation, said Azeri defense minister Safar Abiyev yesterday.

"Azerbaijan is in a state of war, our lands are under occupation. The danger of the restoration of war exists as long as Armenian armed forces in our lands, " said Abiyev.

Azeri political science experts have said, meanwhile, Armenia is deliberately trying to attract Azerbaijan into the war, as the renewed military operations can bring economic sanctions upon Azerbaijan. Not only might the United States impose economic sanctions on Azerbaijan, but also European countries may enforce economic restrictions if war restarts , they said.

 

Photo source: ANS TV

 

 

there's been some talk lately of renewing the war. Actually not just lately, but it seems that things are more intense now, so how realistic do you think it is? Could azerbaijan use the internal turmoil in armenia to renew war? We've been hearing the armenian side in response, saying that they wil give appropriate anwer.

How realistic is the threat of war, and how realistic are the responses of the armenian side?

Edited April 2, 2004 by hytga

[Armat]

http://www.bakutoday.net/view.php?d=8496

 

 

 

there's been some talk lately of renewing the war. Actually not just lately, but it seems that things are more intense now, so how realistic do you think it is? Could azerbaijan use the internal turmoil in armenia to renew war? We've been hearing the armenian side in response, saying that they wil give appropriate anwer.

How realistic is the threat of war, and how realistic are the responses of the armenian side?

The war is unrealistic. US is heavily against the war and understandably much oil investments have gone into pipeline furthermore US is building the largest embassy in Armenia and with all indications I don’t think Azeris would dare piss off Uncle Sam.It is also a middle eastern Turkish bravado deeply part of the culture. Remember all the blood baths repeatedly uttered by Iraqis and we now know how well they fought simply pathetically.

I would think before any serious negotiations Azeris like to use scare tactics to get greater concessions from Armenia. They are also desperate since time is on our side.

[ED]

They are also desperate since time is on our side.

I don’t think so, in contrary time is against us, as far as US and neaocon polices concern, it all depends on hand over of "June 30th deadline" re-election of Bush is an insurance to move ahead with and uncover "unexplored" agendas of this administration, and no surprised Baku is in a list for exploration and further expansion

[hytga]

I don?t think so, in contrary time is against us,

 

i'll agree with you. with the profits made from oil, they can by enough weapons etc.

There's been alot of call for war there, perhaps most of the population will back a war, and who knows some people might use it for political advantage

[Armat]

Ed my comment” time being on our side” I meant we have the possession of the land and it is them that have to worry and furthermore time erodes people’s desires and passions for nationalism however phony that is. In case with Azerbaijan longer Artsagh remains free the harder it would be to regain both militarily and politically

[ED]

Ed my comment” time being on our side” I meant we have the possession of the land and it is them that have to worry and furthermore time erodes people’s desires and passions for nationalism however phony that is. In case with Azerbaijan longer Artsagh remains free the harder it would be to regain both militarily and politically

Rubo jan, I know what you are saying, but with just "we have the possession" of Artsax is not enough to win and support re-assurance of public opinion, in those days ordinary blue-color worker wants a leadership and strong economical base/atmosphere to really on his families survival, ideology, land re- possession, war, longer this uncertainty goes worst it will get for our kinsman, I hope you realize what I'm trying to say and amplify here, the bottom line is what are we prepared as an concession? in political arenas we can not go brag about our victories, unless we have the back bone to support it, thus back bone be is, strong economy, social adequate/basic/satisfactory structure healthy and peaceful neighborly relations and what we discussed in the other thread regarding Diasporas involvement.

 

I think what we have achieved as a Nation in our victory in Artsax, current government and its leadership is still playing that card as "window dressing" for its survival, only time will tell what will bring, and how we are being played. I just will point out what Xrimyan Hayriq had said, mer sherep@ txtits er. Let’s hope and make sure, next time “Xrimyan Hayrig” goes, his sherep will be an Iron one.

[Armen]

RFE/RL Armenia Report - 08/04/2004

 

Azeri Official Yearns For Armenia's Conquest

 

By Emil Danielyan

 

Armenia will cease to exist as an independent state and its territory

will be incorporated into Azerbaijan over the next three decades, a

senior Azerbaijani military official was quoted Wednesday as saying,

raising anti-Armenian bellicose rhetoric in Baku to new heights.

 

`Within the next 25-years there will exist no state of Armenia in the

South Caucasus,' Colonel Ramiz Melikov, the chief spokesman for

Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry, said, according to the Baku daily

`Zerkalo.' `Those people have done so many nasty things to their

neighbors that they have no right to live in this region.'

 

`Modern Armenia is built on historical Azerbaijani lands,' he added. `I

think that in 25-30 years' times its territory will again come under

Azerbaijan's jurisdiction.'

 

Melikov was quoted in an extensive `Zerkalo' article that called on the

Azerbaijani government to promptly restart the war with the Armenians

and win back Nagorno-Artsax. The Azerbaijani leadership regularly

threatens to do just that, complaining about the international

community's reluctance to end Armenian control of the disputed region.

The most recent such threat came from President Ilham Aliev last week.

 

`Zerkalo' said Azerbaijani military officials believe that their troops

are prepared for renewed hostilities and that `the upcoming war will not

be long-lasting.'

 

`Today the personnel of the Azerbaijani armed forces is not the one that

existed ten years ago,' Melikov said. `We substantially exceed Armenia

with the size of the population and the number of soldiers. Soon the

entire world will recognize Armenia as an aggressor country. That is why

Armenia is now on the brink of defeat.'

 

Melikov's doomsday scenario for Armenia's future is bound to be laughed

off by the Armenian government. Official Yerevan has repeatedly

dismissed bellicose statements from Baku, saying that Azerbaijan would

have long resumed the war without a warning had it been confident of

victory. But its reaction to Aliev's latest threats was unusually sharp,

with the Armenian Foreign Ministry warning Azerbaijan of `disastrous

consequences.'

 

As if to drive home the point, the armed forces of the internationally

unrecognized Nagorno-Artsax Republic began on Tuesday a ten-day

military exercise which officials say will test their combat-readiness

during `defensive and counter-offensive operations.' The war games

followed a call-up of army reservists and will involve the use of live

ammunition.

 

Regional and international observers agree that Azerbaijan is unlikely

to try a military solution to the Artsax dispute mid-way through the

development of its Caspian Sea oil reserves by Western multinationals.

Successful implementation of those multibillion-dollar projects is a key

objective of U.S. policy in the South Caucasus. Hence, periodical

statements by U.S. officials warning the conflicting parties against

ending the decade-long truce in Artsax.

 

The outgoing U.S. ambassador to Armenia, John Ordway, described as

`extremely low' the likelihood of renewed fighting last February. `We

would do everything we can to prevent it from happening,' he said.

 

And `Zerkalo' itself quoted an unnamed Western diplomat in Baku last

week as saying that the Azerbaijani society and army are not prepared

for war and that the West does not take its government's threats

seriously.

[Vigil]

`Within the next 25-years there will exist no state of Armenia in the

South Caucasus,' Colonel Ramiz Melikov, the chief spokesman for

Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry, said, according to the Baku daily

`Zerkalo.' `Those people have done so many nasty things to their

neighbors that they have no right to live in this region.'

 

`Modern Armenia is built on historical Azerbaijani lands,' he added. `I

think that in 25-30 years' times its territory will again come under

Azerbaijan's jurisdiction.'

 

Is this a joke? What will they say next?

[Armen]

Associated Press Worldstream

August 4, 2004 Wednesday 4:47 PM Eastern Time

 

Azerbaijan lashes out at Armenian enclave over military exercises

 

BAKU, Azerbaijan

 

Azerbaijan sharply criticized authorities in the ethnic Armenian

enclave of Nagorno-Artsax on Wednesday for holding military

exercises, calling the maneuvers a provocation that would hurt

efforts to reach a settlement over the disputed region.

 

The Foreign Ministry expressed "deep concern" about the exercises and

said the international community would not be fooled by the portrayal

of "these actions by illegal armed formations of the separatist

regime" as "exercises of the so-called armed forces of

Nagorno-Artsax."

 

It said the exercises would hamper preparations for the next meeting

between the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia, which backs

the internationally unrecognized ethnic Armenian government of

Nagorno-Artsax.

 

A spokesman for the military in Nagorno-Artsax, which has been de

facto independent since Azerbaijan's forces were driven out in 1994,

said Tuesday that it had begun a 10-day exercise meant to test

combat-readiness and improve coordination in "defensive battles and

counterattacks."

 

With no settlement in sight a decade after a cease-fire ended a war

that killed some 30,000 people and drove about a million from their

homes, there are fears a new armed conflict could erupt.

 

Forces of Nagorno-Artsax's government also hold several sectors of

Azerbaijan outside of the enclave itself, and sporadic firing takes

place across the demilitarized zone that separates the forces.

[HOB]

there's been some talk lately of renewing the war. Actually not just lately, but it seems that things are more intense now, so how realistic do you think it is? Could azerbaijan use the internal turmoil in armenia to renew war? We've been hearing the armenian side in response, saying that they wil give appropriate anwer.

How realistic is the threat of war, and how realistic are the responses of the armenian side?

This is what they’ve been saying since last ten years. I don’t see any serious reason for putting this standard rubbish from azeri sites in Armenian forum.

[Sasun]

Armenia Hits Out At Azeri Criticism Of Artsax War Games

 

www.armenialiberty.org

By Emil Danielyan

 

A fresh war of words between Armenia and Azerbaijan continued on Friday when official Yerevan angrily rejected Azerbaijani condemnations of the ongoing military exercise and the upcoming local elections in Nagorno-Artsax.

 

The Armenian Foreign Ministry said that Azerbaijan is using the two events to “divert attention from its unwillingness to negotiate a lasting peace.” “Whether complaining about Artsax's peaceful, legal, democratic elections, or whether making disparaging remarks about the people of Nagorno Artsax and their continued readiness to defend themselves, their families and their property…these statements simply result in a continuation of the atmosphere of distrust and cynicism,” the ministry spokesman, Hamlet Gasparian, said in a statement.

 

The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry expressed “deep concern” about the ten-day exercise which the Artsax Armenian forces began on Tuesday. It said the exercises will hamper preparations for the next meeting between the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia.

 

The two ministers held a series of face-to-face talks in recent months, emerging from them with cautiously optimistic statements about prospects of a peaceful settlement of the Artsax dispute. But those statements have been overshadowed by the latest bitter exchange between the conflicting parties. It was triggered by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev’s fresh threat to restore Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity by force if the peace process remains deadlocked.

 

The Armenian government reacted angrily, warning Baku of “disastrous consequences” of renewed fighting and questioning its commitment to peace. But Armenian officials have not commented on an even more bellicose statement attributed to the chief spokesman for Azerbaijan’s Defense Ministry. The official, Colonel Ramiz Melikov, was quoted by a leading Azerbaijani daily on Wednesday as saying that Armenia will cease to exist as an independent state and its territory will become part of Azerbaijan “in the next 25-30 years.”

 

Melikov’s reported prediction has alarmed a leading Armenian-American advocacy group. The Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA) sent on Thursday letters to the White House and the members of the U.S. Congress urging Washington to denounce the threat.

 

“We expect our government to forcefully and publicly confront the Azerbaijani government over these patently hateful and destabilizing threats,” the ANCA executive director, Aram Hamparian, said in a statement. “Failure to do so would send extremely dangerous signals to Baku."

[Armen]

Boston Herald

 

U.S. defense chief thanks Azerbaijan president

 

By Associated Press

Thursday, August 12, 2004

 

BAKU, Azerbaijan - U.S. Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld thanked

Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliev on Thursday for his country's support in

the war on terrorism.

Rumsfeld spoke with Aliev on a trip to visit U.S. allies in the

region.

Defense Minister Gen. Col. Safar Abiyev assured Rumsfeld that his

country is committed to keeping 150 soldiers in Iraq.

Azerbaijan is the only predominately Muslim country that has

contributed troops to the multinational coalition assisting the emerging

forces of the Iraqi interim government.

Azerbaijan, which also has 22 troops in Afghanstian, is seeking U.S.

support in mondernizing its military and resolving a territorial dispute

with neighboring Armenia.

The United States, meanwhile, is appealing to Caspian Sea countries

like Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan as foils to Iran, which also borders on the

oil-rich sea.

 

 

( © Copyright 2004 Associated Press. All rights reserved

[skhara]

Azerbaijan wants NATO to intervene on their side.

[shaunt]

The next time we meet on the battle field shall be our last; I pray to the Gods that they give us the strength to massacre every living Azeri in the region. I'm sick of these idiots. If they do not exist, they cannot bother us.

 

[gamavor]

Azerbaijan wants NATO to intervene on their side.

Highly unlikely! In case of resumed hostilities Azeris can only rely on American sponsored Talibans, Chechen terrorist, and Turkish military advisers. None of the great players in the region wants to get 'personal', because that would lead to unpleasant encounter with a hungry Bear. And as you know such meetings are not very pleasant.

 

If Azeris made even one move that would be in our advantage - our dream can finally become true. From Caspian to Black and from Black to Meditereanean.

 

Tigrani HAIK!

[mx5]

Just came back from a first time trip with my family to Armenia,the impressions are enormous,i will post them here soon.we have a Pearl,a Gem there that needs our constent care and effection.

we all decided that we can move and live there if Armenian authorities issue a law granting the Diasporian Armenians the Armenian nationality on the spot(no negotioations on this one!!). Armenia will be bolstered economicaly and we will also contribute in its deffence.

I think we can geather enough power to establish back our historical land from SEA To SEA,and own back our Stolen OIL by useless azeris which rightly belongs to us the Armenians!!!!.And I think this should suit the western world without any doubt.

 

A Nation without a dream is a useless nation..

 

What Azeri Deffence ministry is hoping to achieve is:

-to send Armenia into the hands of Russia for the coming 25-30 years,Russia being the main arms supplier to Yerevan,thereby luring him to keep a distance from the western countries.

-Hamper economic growth by doing that.

-Highten the "broken to the ground" azeri morals.

 

I think this is a childs game which has no chance of sucsess.

Edited August 15, 2004 by mx5

[Vigil]

-to send Armenia into the hands of Russia for the coming 25-30 years,Russia being the main arms supplier to Yerevan,thereby luring him to keep a distance from the western countries.

 

Mx5, why is this a "bad idea"? I want Armenia to remain neutral, but if it had to pick a side I think it would more beneficial in the long run to remain loyal to Russia.

[Vigil]

Mx5, forgot to welcome you back from your trip and I hope you had a great time.

[mx5]

Mx5, why is this a "bad idea"? I want Armenia to remain neutral, but if it had to pick a side I think it would more beneficial in the long run to remain loyal to Russia.

Thanks Vigil I think every Armenian should go and visit Armenia just to know what he/she is missing,I remember saying to my son :I dont know where will you end up in the future but always remember your PAST is here,and for that matter the other SIDE of the "border".and I sincerely hope that you will end up here where you belong.

 

As for beiing bad Idea ,the answer is simple and obvious:Because America would not allow that for the long term,he thinks Armenia as the most important country in the region and badly wants to gain him on his side no matter what,in some cases even more important than Turkey itself,as it posseses (Turkey)all the ingrediants of disintagration in the future!!,and Armenia could be the most stable of them all!!!.

 

And from what I saw russians are not doing that great a job in Armenia(e.g:encouraging the business mafias)..just my oppinion though and of many people I met there.

Edited August 15, 2004 by mx5

[skhara]

Highly unlikely! In case of resumed hostilities Azeris can only rely on American sponsored Talibans, Chechen terrorist, and Turkish military advisers. None of the great players in the region wants to get 'personal', because that would lead to unpleasant encounter with a hungry Bear. And as you know such meetings are not very pleasant.

 

I agree with you that it is unlikely as things stand today. America wants to chase the Bear out of the Caucausus, however. If that happens Armenia is all by herself surrounded by Turks.

 

As for beiing bad Idea ,the answer is simple and obvious:Because America would not allow that for the long term,he thinks Armenia as the most important country in the region and badly wants to gain him on his side no matter what,in some cases even more important than Turkey itself,as it posseses (Turkey)all the ingrediants of disintagration in the future!!,and Armenia could be the most stable of them all!!!.

 

Nobody is as important as Turkey in the current state-department policy. What are the guarantees that Western powers will protect Armenia from Turkish incursions? If Russia is chased out of the Caucasus, Armenia will be left by herself. The Western powers will be too far, while Yerevan is so close to the Turkish border. Also, from past examples we can see that Armenia cannot trust the US because when it comes to Turkey the US will let them get away with bloody murder as the Cyprus example showed.

 

Check out this article:

Genocide Acknowledgment: Why Turkey and the State Department Fear It

 

From the article:

 

Conventional wisdom says that the United States was bullied by Turkey into withdrawing the Armenian Genocide Resolution from the House of Representatives a few months ago.

 

Conventional wisdom is wrong. The most powerful nation on earth is not afraid of Turkey. Moreover, the US would have stood firm had it felt Genocide acknowledgment would advance its national interests.

 

In actuality, the United States-or part of it-has been Turkey's willing accomplice in the Genocide debacle and more.

 

The very fact that the big guns-the State Department foremost, but also the Pentagon, White House, and others-were unholstered to shoot down the resolution suggests that much is at stake.

 

Turkey is worried about Genocide acknowledgment. The Turkish government acknowledging the Genocide would puncture its overblown, can-do-no-wrong self-image. Furthermore, an admission could encourage other ethnic groups-notably Kurds, Assyrians, Greeks, and others-to more vigorously press for recognition of Turkish crimes against them.

 

More ominous, however, are the other generally cited consequences of acknowledging the Genocide: reparations and territorial claims.

 

Reparations to Armenians are a matter not only of money but also of possible restoration of individual, communal, and church property and landholdings lost in the Genocide. According to legal expert Shavarsh Toriguian, author of The Armenian Question and International Law, there are precedents for such types of cases.

 

Armenian territorial claims would probably be based on pacts such as the 1920 Treaty of Sevres, which provided for Armenian and Kurdish states on formerly Ottoman land. Armenia's borders were delineated by President Wilson and included 16,000 square miles, with a Black Sea coastline, that presently lie in eastern Turkey.

 

Then there are other potential land problems, such as the 60-year old Syrian claim over the Turkish coastal province of Alexandretta-Hatay.

 

Turkey's ongoing fear of internal fracture is not unwarranted in view not only of legitimate claims by Armenians, Kurds, and others, but also Turkey's own tenuous identity based on forcing the catchall term "Turk" upon its varied population of Kurds, Laz, Balkan Muslims, Circassians, Chechens, Assyrians, Armenians, and others.

 

Territorial claims cast a shadow over Turkey's entire eastern half. This worries many Turks because even a minor loss of land there could cut the off country from the Turkic nations directly to the east.

 

Some Turks today openly say that their country has a "Sevres syndrome," referring to the fear that Turkish territory could splinter along ethnic lines, abetted by outside forces.

 

The Turkish Daily News recently reported that senior Turkish Foreign Ministry official Tansu Okandan "has emphasized that Armenia was continuing its territorial claims on Turkey, adding that Armenian authorities have identified six northeastern provinces of Turkey as 'western Armenia.'"

 

The same news agency states that some Turkish foreign policy experts "believe that Armenia's territorial claims are the main reason" for "pushing for global recognition of the alleged genocide of Armenians."

 

The official Web site of the Turkish Armed Forces says that "receiving compensation" and "obtaining territory from Turkey" are parts of an Armenian "plan."

 

Certainly neither Turkey nor the State Department have forgotten worldwide Armenian calls after World War II, also put forward by Stalin, to annex Kars and Ardahan to Soviet Armenia, calls that were rejected by Turkey and the US. The Republic of Armenia today has not put forward any territorial demands against Turkey.

 

Turkish officials frequently say that Turkey is a "unitary state," which specifically alludes to its anxiety over Kurdish separatism.

 

The State Department has been fretting too. Two years ago, US Ambassador to Turkey Mark Parris declared: "We want a democratic and stable Turkey, with its territorial integrity uncompromised." Translation: Both countries are worried about losing Turkish land.

 

For quite some time the State Department has refused to officially characterize the Armenian Genocide as "genocide." The new role of Turkey since the dissolution of the Soviet Union may have only reinforced US denial.

 

Were Turkey seen only as a NATO ally, a buffer against Russia, a friend of Israel, and an adversary of Iran and some Arab nations, these might be enough to explain the State Department posture on the Genocide.

 

But there's more: Turkey is central to the State Department's post-Cold War strategy to project the United States politically, economically, and even militarily into Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and the five former Soviet republics of Central Asia, four of which are Turkic.

 

Referring to this very area, journalist and geopolitical analyst Anatol Lieven asserts that due to "the personal interests of some State Department officials and academics, the result has been an ambitious strategy to roll back Russian influence in the region and to replace it with a new, more benign American hegemony."

 

The overall goal is to stop imperialistic Russian pressures against its neighbors-nearly all of them ex-Soviet republics or satellites-and thereby, it is hoped, tame and physically contain Russia so that it can never again challenge the West.

 

As part of this strategy, Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic have recently joined NATO. Nearly all of the other ex-Communist countries of eastern Europe are on a fast-track for NATO membership.

 

On Russia's southern border in the Caucasus and Central Asia, the eight ex-Soviet republics are to be linked to the West mainly via oil and gas pipelines-such as the proposed Baku-Ceyhan and trans-Caspian projects-and bolstered with economic and military assistance from the West.

 

Georgia and Azerbaijan, though not Armenia, have expressed great eagerness to join NATO. The US Army's 82nd Airborne Division has even dropped in, literally, on Kazakhstan.

 

Facing an arc of independent or hostile countries across its entire land mass from Europe to China, Russia is to be contained to an extent undreamed of during the Cold War.

 

Turkey is a critical link in the containment policy. Its eastern territory is the only friendly land-bridge into the three republics of the Caucasus, which in turn is just across the Caspian Sea from Central Asia.

 

After all, northern routes into that region are blocked by Russia, while southern routes traverse countries that are hostile or problematic to the US-Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

 

Therefore Turkey, particularly its east, must remain intact if the Russian bear is to be caged. Or so the State Department believes.

 

Turkey's eastern provinces are vulnerable to Armenian and Kurdish territorial claims. Thus, it would appear, the State Department looks with disfavor upon issues, such as Genocide acknowledgment, that might further such claims.

 

Whatever one may think of the goal of containing Russia, and putting aside overly sentimental notions of Russia as Armenia's "big brother," a side-effect of the plan is to isolate Armenia between its two Turkish adversaries. Armenia would also be distanced from Russia's counterbalancing presence and dependent on the alleged goodwill of the West. Historically, these elements have been disastrous for Armenians.

 

Perhaps an enlarged Armenia and a Kurdish state might someday be seen by the US as alternatives to eastern Turkey. This would, however, require a considerable shift in State Department thinking.

 

The need to link Azerbaijan to Turkey is emphasized by Zbigniew Brzezinski, President Carter's National Security Advisor. Mr. Brzezinski, in his book The Grand Chessboard, asserts that Azerbaijan is a "geopolitical pivot" and "the vitally important cork controlling access to the bottle [of the] Caspian Sea basin and Central Asia." Pipelines from Azerbaijan to Turkey "would prevent Russia from exercising a monopoly on access to the region."

 

Actually, the proposed Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline, from Azerbaijan through Georgia to Turkey's Mediterranean coast, is viewed by most American experts as economically unjustifiable because there may never be enough Caspian oil to fill it.

 

Regardless, since even a largely empty pipeline would further the geopolitical goal of creating a permanent American passageway into the region, the State Department ignores the economic costs and continues to pressure oil companies for construction.

 

Armenia and Georgia are the only routes through which Turkey and the West can reach Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea. Although Georgia is pro-Western and currently serves as the link between Turkey and Azerbaijan, it is is torn by ethnic separatism and under pressure by Russia. That leaves Armenia, but its borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan remain closed.

 

Only a Karabagh agreement can unseal the Armenian-Azeri border and, therefore, the crucial Turkey-Nakhichevan-Armenia-Azerbaijan corridor across southern Armenia. The detached Azeri enclave of Nakhichevan has a 6-mile border with Turkey. The Turkish-Armenian border might open as well.

 

The result: the Caucasus, Caspian Sea, and therefore Central Asia, would be thrown open to the West. But only if Karabagh is solved, which explains why the State Department so badly wants an agreement.

 

Incidentally, although it pretends otherwise, Russia does not particularly want a Karabagh agreement for these very same reasons.

 

So intent is the State Department to forge a Turkic corridor across Armenia that special negotiator Carey Cavanaugh recently said that he has not yet given up on the "Goble plan," which Armenia rejects, that envisions a formal exchange of land: Karabagh to Armenians, and southernmost Armenia (Meghri) to Azerbaijan.

 

Might the State Department acknowledge the Genocide to make Armenians more inclined to take a chance with a Karabagh agreement? Evidently not. Genocide recognition is apparently regarded as a slippery slope that could put eastern Turkey, and thus the goal of Russian containment, at risk.

 

Moreover, the State Department feels it will get what it wants without making any concessions to Armenians. Better, it thinks, to provide some aid to Armenia while making veiled threats that failure to reach a Karabagh accord will ultimately lead to Armenia's isolation.

 

Stripped of diplomatic niceties, "isolation" means this: "Play ball with the US, or you Armenians will find yourselves facing the Turks alone after we chase your friend, Russia, from the Caucasus, and, by the way, remember what happened in 1915."

 

Unfortunately, were Armenia to fall exclusively into the American orbit, it would be vulnerable to Turkish designs anyway because the US will nearly always let Turkey have its way. Witness, among many examples, Turkey's occupation of Cyprus, its vicious assaults on Kurds using American-made weapons, and, in the last decade, its saber rattling against Armenia.

 

Meanwhile, the State Department hedges its bets by urging "dialogue" between Turks and Armenians on the Genocide, hoping either that the issue becomes mired in endless academic discourse or that, through some miracle, an agreement is reached that does not disrupt US strategy.

 

If the State Department's containment policy drives it to lie about the Genocide, subtly threaten Armenia, and let Turkey get away with murder-past, present, and future-that is evidently considered a small price to pay.

 

While the reasons for the State Department's collusion with Turkey are apparent, how to bring about positive changes in US policy is admittedly a harder task.

 

Some policies may appear to be set in concrete due to entrenched elements in the State Department that are incapable of asserting American interests and values over Turkish ones. Yet it is precisely because the containment policy is built on questionable assumptions that change is possible.

 

The United States is relying on a Turkey that is contemptuous of human and minority rights, largely undemocratic, unwilling to undertake more than token reforms, and always on the brink of instability and possible fracture. Moreover, these characteristics typify many of the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia. The region bears little resemblance to eastern Europe, the other and more stable pole of the US containment policy.

 

Ironically, while seeking to prevent the reestablishment of a Russian empire, the containment strategy may promote a potentially destabilizing, rogue pan-Turkic one that could threaten American and Western interests.

 

State Department rhetoric about support for democracy and human rights in the region appears to be, unfortunately, a smokescreen for less attractive geopolitical goals. Aside from the hypocrisy, policy based on an unsustainable lie, such as Genocide denial, can only end in failure. This can be likened to sabotaging American interests.

 

It is unclear if Congress and the American people understand what the State Department has in store for them. Perhaps they need to be told.

[gamavor]

Yes Skhara, I agree and the article is very interesting indeed. The Azeris hysteria is nothing but well orchestrated attempt from Washington to scare off Armenians (as if they don't know us! ). On the other hand, what is at stake is to sell out Russian interests in the region. If not anything else, Armenia is blessed with excellent diplomacy - Oskanian is doing outstanding job.

 

Everything in life comes with a "little" price tag.

[mx5]

What are the guarantees that Western powers will protect Armenia from Turkish incursions? If Russia is chased out of the Caucasus, Armenia will be left by herself.

I highly agree with you about the above quote,what Im trying to say here is that there is an unseen revalary between the two powers in regarding of Armenia.

each can serve a different purpose While one can give you security the other can introduce prospirity,if any each of them would give me the both I take that immidiately,if not I will content myself with the first..the security!!.

 

But keep in mind that in presence of russia we will have to learn to live in poverty and make no fuss about it!!...

 

As for Turkey I think its role and importance in this modern geopolitical era is highly exagerated,I dont think that the west is in desparatly need its favours any more,the Cypros invasion was done under completely different conditions with the presence of soviet union and the promise(which was a blunder)Makarios than made to the USSR giving them a base in Cypros.

 

Turkey has no role any more except that his bragging role as an ass-kisser!!

[Teutonic Knight]

God bless Russia!

 

http://members.fortunecity.com/whitepride1/whitepride/whitepride/images/picoftheweek_l_jpg.jpg

[Armen]

http://www.rosbalt.ru/2004/08/16/173704.html

 

The article is in Russian. I'll post it in English as soon as it appears in Groong.

[Armen]

If not anything else, Armenia is blessed with excellent diplomacy - Oskanian is doing outstanding job.

This is so true. He is brilliant.

 

Actually, Russia's current foreign minister Sergei Lavrov is half-Armenian. His father is an Armenian from Tbilisi. And he mentioned that during Oskanian's visit to Moscow recently. Lavrov has served as Russia's representative to UN for 10 years or so.