Turkish-Armenian Border

[Stormig]

http://www.rferl.org/nca/features/2003/07/...72003151512.asp

 

 

Armenia/Turkey: Economic Necessity Pushing Yerevan, Ankara Closer

By Jean-Christophe Peuch

 

For the first time since the breakup of the Soviet Union, arch rivals Turkey and Armenia seem ready to set aside their historical differences and establish good neighborly ties. While cautioning against too high expectations, Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian recently described Ankara's overtures and Yerevan's reciprocal gestures as "small steps in the right direction." RFE/RL reports on the hopes and objections raised on both sides of the sealed Turkish-Armenian border.

 

Prague, 25 July 2003 (RFE/RL) -- Ankara is exploring ways to establish ties with arch rival Armenia following the victory of Turkey's Justice and Development Party (AKP) in last November's legislative polls.

 

Regional analysts generally believe Turkey's Islamic-rooted AKP government has displayed a much more pragmatic approach to international politics than its predecessors.

 

Although AKP candidates had included possible normalization of ties with Armenia in their election program, the first tangible signs that Turkey was ready to review its policy appeared after the European Union's Copenhagen summit last December.

 

The 15-member bloc then refused to set a date for the start of entry talks with Ankara but pledged to assess its commitment to accession criteria in late 2004 with a view to opening formal negotiations the following year.

 

Brussels is primarily concerned by Turkey's poor economic indicators and human rights record. Yet it has made no secret that establishing ties with Yerevan would boost Ankara's chances of joining.

 

Both the EU and the United States have been promoting regional economic projects, such as the Transport Corridor Europe Caucasus Asia (TRACECA) and are pressing for a rapprochement between Ankara and Yerevan.

 

Istanbul businessman Kaan Soyak is the co-chairman of the Turkish-Armenian Business Development Council (TABDC), a nongovernmental organization that was set up six years ago to help maintain business contacts between Ankara and Yerevan with the tacit approval of both capitals.

 

Soyak told RFE/RL that although talks on the resumption of ties have been going on for some years, never before have both governments seem so genuinely interested in pushing for a rapprochement.

 

"I believe this is the first time both governments are so sincere. Most importantly, they have identified one by one the major problems that exist between our two countries and have assigned them priorities. We have all reasons to believe they have never been so sincere, and we are very much optimistic about the upcoming meeting our foreign ministers will have next September," Soyak said.

 

When the Soviet Union broke up in 1991, Ankara refused to recognize newly independent Armenia because of its three-year-old conflict with Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Artsax enclave.

 

As a further sign of support toward Turkic Azerbaijan, which was then experiencing a series of military defeats on the Artsax front, Turkey closed its eastern border in 1993, thus de facto decreeing an economic embargo against Armenia.

 

Officially, there is no trade between Turkey and Armenia, but goods circulate freely between the two countries through Georgia and Iran. Nevertheless, the decision to sever direct trade ties with Armenia has badly hit the Turkish economy, especially on eastern Anatolia's desolate plateau.

 

Nicolas Tavitian is the co-founder of the Brussels branch of TABDC. He says pressure exerted on Turkey's AKP cabinet by the EU and the U.S. cannot alone explain recent Turkish overtures toward Armenia.

 

"Turkey's Western partners have started talking about the reopening of the border much more actively than they had been doing for the past 10 years. Yet I believe that Turkey's own economic interests are playing a role here, and that it is precisely because [the Turks have] much to win from the border reopening that they are perhaps seriously considering that possibility now," Tavitian said.

 

The rapprochement started taking shape on the sidelines of a NATO ministerial meeting in Madrid on 3-4 June. Emerging from talks with his Armenian counterpart, Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul said Ankara might consider reopening its eastern border soon.

 

Another sign came on 19 June, when NATO held its first military exercises in Armenia. For the first time since 1991, Turkey's "Istiklal Marsi" national anthem sounded out in that part of the Southern Caucasus to welcome a group of Turkish soldiers taking part in the war games.

 

Turkish media immediately speculated that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan would use a planned visit to Kars, an eastern Anatolian city not far from Armenia, to announce the reopening of the border. But the Turkish leader instead said Ankara would not lift its embargo until Armenia stops campaigning for the international recognition of the 1915 genocide.

 

The massacre of hundreds of thousands of ethnic Armenians by Turkish soldiers in the final years of the Ottoman Empire has been a major bone of contention between Ankara and Yerevan.

 

Armenia claims 1.5 million people died as the result of a carefully organized genocidal campaign. Turkey denies both the genocide charge and the death toll, saying tens of thousands of Armenians were killed in what it says was mere "domestic unrest." It also blames Armenians for the subsequent killing of thousands of Turks.

 

Many in Yerevan -- especially among the nationalist Armenian Revolutionary Federation-Dashnaktsutiun (HHD) -- make recognition of the genocide by Turkish leaders a precondition to improving relations.

 

For Armenia, however -- an impoverished, landlocked country of 3.2 million essentially supported by distant Russia -- normalizing relations with its western neighbor is a necessity.

 

Speaking on 18 July at RFE/RL's headquarters in Prague, Armenian Social Security Minister Aghvan Vartanian said both countries are bound to resume ties, if only out of economic and geographical considerations.

 

"That relations between our two countries should be normalized is obvious. We must normalize our relations with Turkey, Azerbaijan, and all our neighbors. This is a necessity because no country in the region can develop itself isolated from [its neighbors]. We are convinced that there is no possible alternative to regional cooperation," Vartanian said.

 

The TABDC believes that, with the reopening of the sole Gyumri (formerly Leninakan) border gate, annual trade volume between Turkey and Armenia could double and reach $300 million within a year. It also says the opening of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border would boost Turkey's trade with Central Asia by cutting transportation costs by 35 percent.

 

As Tavitian points out, Armenia is the most natural export route for Turkish goods meant for the former Soviet Union: "The reason why Armenia is so important for Turkey is that all [main] existing [export] infrastructures are going through that country. All that existed under the Soviet Union -- be it roads or railways -- was going through Armenia. Aside from Iran, the natural corridor to reach [the Azerbaijani capital] Baku from Turkey crosses the Ararat plain, the [Azerbaijani exclave of] Nahcivan, the Zangezur mountains, and then Azerbaijan. To the north, there is a railroad link going to Gyumri [in Armenia] and Georgia. So the main two arteries to reach the former Soviet world go through Armenia. For Turkey, this is the problem."

 

In an attempt to further isolate Armenia, politicians in Turkey and Azerbaijan have drawn up plans to build a new, 780 kilometer railway link from Kars to Baku through Georgia's predominantly Armenian region of Akhalkalaki.

 

But many in Turkey question the economic rationale behind this project. Soyak says renovating the Soviet-era Kars-Gyumri-Tbilisi line would be much cheaper and economically much more viable.

 

"This is just a political project. We have no objection to it, but should we ask the Turkish state railways whether they think this project is necessary when the border between Turkey and Armenia reopens, obviously the answer would be 'no' because the annual capacity of the existing line is 10 million tons a year. This is huge. We must first use this line and, only if necessary, look at the possibility of building a second railway," Soyak said.

 

The closure of two-thirds of Armenia's borders has left it with Georgia as its major export outlet. But because of the dispute between Tbilisi and the breakaway republic of Abkhazia, the rail link between Armenia and Russia to the north remains closed.

 

A 2001 report released by the U.S. Agency for International Development notes that corruption, inefficiencies, and weak management compromise the shipment of goods through Georgia and "create a serious setback for Armenia's competitiveness."

 

Tavitian says resumption of direct trade with Turkey would bring Armenia immediate and substantial economic benefits: "The World Bank says that [in that case] Armenia's exports would double in the short term and its gross domestic product [GDP] would increase by an estimated 30 to 40 percent. Armenia's GDP currently stands at $2 billion, and the World Bank believes that if both borders -- the Turkish-Armenian border [to the east] and the Azerbaijani-Armenian border [to the west] -- were reopened, it would get at least an additional $500 million or so. This is considerable."

 

Yet, Armenia's pro-presidential HHD party has cautioned against the reopening of the border, saying Turkish goods would saturate the domestic market and strike a blow to local manufacturers and businessmen.

 

HHD, which holds a number of seats in the coalition cabinet -- including the Social Security Ministry -- also opposes the idea of establishing direct ties between the Turkish and Armenian legislatures until Ankara recognizes the 1915 genocide. The idea was floated last month by Parliament Speaker Artur Baghdasarian.

 

In Turkey, too, many resist the idea of resuming ties with Yerevan, saying armed forces of the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Artsax republic should first liberate the Azerbaijani lands they have been occupying since 1993.

 

The possible Turkish-Armenian rapprochement has also raised concerns in Azerbaijan, which fears it could weaken its position in the search for a political settlement of the Artsax dispute.

 

Regional experts believe resumption of trade or establishment of diplomatic relations between Turkey and Armenia would -- at least temporarily -- affect ties between Ankara and Baku.

 

"The main reason why attempts at reopening the border have failed so far is Azerbaijan. Should Turkey lift its blockade of Armenia, Azerbaijan would lose its main leverage on Armenia. Consequently, Azerbaijan is pressing Turkey -- as it has done in the past -- to maintain its blockade because the blockade can be effective only if Armenia is isolated from both sides," Tavitian said.

 

Ankara last December made it clear economic considerations would prevail over its strategic ties with Baku when it decides whether to resume ties with Armenia.

 

"We will take Azerbaijan's concerns into account when we decide to establish ties with Armenia," then Turkish Foreign Minister Yasar Yakis said after the EU summit. "But if our economic interests demand that we establish relations with Armenia, we must do so."

 

Analysts warn, however, that it would be wrong to conclude that the ongoing rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia heralds a shift in Ankara's policy toward Baku.

 

"In that kind of game, it is in no one's interest to change partners in the middle of the dance. One has to continue dancing with two partners," Tavitian said, adding, "The same way Azerbaijan is dancing with Russians and Turks alike, Turkey must not let Azerbaijan down for Armenia."

 

 

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Search | Newsline | Magazine | Reports | Services | Realaudio

 

© 1995-2003 Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Inc., All Rights Reserved.

http://www.rferl.org

[Stormig]

http://www.rferl.org/nca/features/1998/07/...0728135300.html

 

 

Caucasus: Burden Of History Blocks Turkish-Armenian Border

By Jolyon Naegele

 

 

Kars, Turkey; 28 July 1998 (RFE/RL) -- The Turkish-Armenian border, which Ankara closed five years ago, is unlikely to be reopened anytime soon.

 

The reason cited by the Turkish government is what Ankara calls the ongoing Armenian occupation of Nagorno-Artsax and surrounding Azerbaijani territories.

 

But other factors are at least as forceful in ensuring no change to the status quo. These include concern about losing potential oil income from a pipeline from Baku to Ceyhan, and national honor in the face of allegations of genocide against Armenians more than 80 years ago.

 

Turkey closed its road and rail links with Armenia in 1993, declaring these would only reopen once ethnic Armenian forces withdraw from Nagorno-Artsax and Azerbaijan's territorial integrity is reestablished.

 

At present, the only direct transportation between the two countries is a weekly bus from Istanbul and Trabzon to Yerevan via Georgia and a twice-weekly flight between Istanbul and Yerevan. But continued closure of the road and railway linking the eastern Turkish outpost of Kars with Armenia's second largest city, Gyumri, 90 kilometers distant, has stymied commercial contacts.

 

The president of the Kars Chamber of Commerce, Mehmet Yilmaz, wants to see the border reopened as soon as possible. He notes Kars lacks industry and most locals are dependent on raising livestock.

 

"We want to open the border -- it will mean jobs for everyone. Armenians will visit Kars to shop for foodstuffs and textiles."

 

Yilmaz notes that Armenia is isolated, with virtually no land route in or out except through Georgia. (There is also a highway connecting Armenia and Iran.) Opening the border he says will open the door to Europe. He has repeatedly lobbied Turkish MPs and officials, including President Suleyman Demirel, but so far to no avail.

 

Yilmaz visited Armenia last year and the year before, talking with business people and politicians in Yerevan and Gyumri. Armenian business people have come to visit him in Kars. He says both sides are eager to resume direct trade and eliminate the circuitous travel and the middlemen in Georgia and Iran. The only barrier he says is the closed border.

 

"Turkish products such as butter, jam and olive oil are being sent to Georgia and Iran and resold to Armenia," Yilmaz says.

 

Ankara is eager to establish transportation links with the Caucasus and Central Asia, even if this means financing the construction of a new railway instead of reactivating the dormant line to Gyumri. A new 150 km railway from Kars to Georgia is due to be completed in about two years.

 

An MP from the ruling Motherland Party (ANAP) representing the district of Igdirnear the Armenian border, Adil Asirim, told RFE-RL in Ankara, "We in eastern Anatolia constantly ask why there cannot be any trade with Armenia." He says trade would boost living standards on both sides but he backs the construction of the new railway to Georgia as a way of opening eastern Turkey to new markets in the Caucasus and Central Asia.

 

In Istanbul, Marmara University Professor of International Relations Nilufer Narli says having good economic relations with all the countries in the Caucasus is in Turkey's interest.

 

But she notes the "Azerbaijani factor" must not be forgotten, particularly since Baku has a virtual veto power over Turkish-Armenian relations.

 

"Because of the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Turkey should be careful in its relations with Armenia. So the question is who is more important for Turkey. There is constant pressure from Azerbaijan. For example, when Turkey discussed opening the border crossing with Armenia, Azerbaijan reacted very strongly."

 

Narli says Turkey is unlikely to reevaluate its relationship with Armenia anytime soon.

 

Turkey is eager for an oil pipeline to be built from Baku via Georgia and through eastern Anatolia to Ceyhan that would bring in considerable revenue in transit fees for Caspian oil. With a decision on constructing the pipeline expected in October, Ankara is unlikely to do anything to antagonize Azeri president Heydar Aliyev.

 

Western diplomats in Ankara note Turkey's relationship with Armenia had been moving toward full relations until Armenian forces seized Artsax and surrounding territories. Turkey closed the border with Armenia but eventually cultivated various channels to Armenia's president, Levon Ter-Petrosian. The diplomats say Ter-Petrosian was aware that Armenia's long-term survival depends on an open border with Turkey with its access to the West. The alternative was dependence on Russia and Iran.

 

But it was Ter-Petrosian's advocacy of modifying Armenian policy on the Artsax dispute late last year that led to a sudden loss of support from the power ministers in Yerevan. He eventually resigned.

 

His successor, Robert Kocharian, has said he wants good relations with Turkey and wants to push Artsax off the negotiating table. But Turkey has responded that the issue of Artsax must be resolved before there can be an improvement in relations.

 

The French National Assembly's vote in late May equating the Turkish massacres of Armenians in 1915-16 with genocide has exacerbated tensions between Ankara and Yerevan. Officials in Ankara suspect the motion must have had prior approval from Armenia.

 

Among those pleading for moderation on both sides is the chairman of the Turkish parliament's foreign policy committee, Bulent Akarcali. He tells RFE-RL the continued closure of the border with Armenia is especially harmful to Armenia.

 

"Yerevan should understand that the best protector for Yerevan could be Turkey -- neither Europe, nor the United States. We are there and Armenia is a part of our culture."

 

Akarcali suggests Armenia should make a goodwill gesture that Baku would also accept as such. Akarcali says Turkey then could also make a gesture leading to the reopening of the border with Armenia.

 

In all likelihood that gesture would have to involve a move toward reevaluating the past.

 

Armenians allege that Ottoman Turkey committed genocide in 1915-16 in killing well over one million ethnic Armenians. Turkey denies that what occurred was genocide, insisting that the number of Armenians was closer to 300,000 and that Armenians massacred large numbers of Turks.

 

While a few lone voices among Turkish intellectuals suggest the time is approaching for Turkey to admit to the alleged crimes, far more Turks oppose any revision. The head of the history department of Erzurum University, Enver Konukcu, says the Armenians have only themselves to blame for the border remaining closed. In his words, "the Armenians have a character flaw -- they always rekindle old enmities."

 

Nevertheless, Konukcu says Turks want to normalize relations with Armenia.

 

"With all our heart we want normalization, we want Armenian-Turkish relations to develop in a normal course. But if they are going to go back to ancient history, they will not achieve anything.

 

Konukcu says the Armenians should rid themselves of the influence of Western governments -- a reference to the French parliament's vote on Armenian genocide.

 

But in Istanbul, Bosphorus University Professor of Sociology, Nilufer Gole disagrees. She says the French vote was not regrettable at all. Rather, she says Turkey has to make the "Armenian Question" debatable in the public sphere.

 

Gole says Turks should acknowledge that "something awful happened in the past." She says archives should be open and the facts debated by historians. In her words, "you can never totally dissociate facts from current history, from ideologies, from hurt feelings, but we have to do it."

 

(This part of a continuing series of articles by an RFE/RL correspondent who recently traveled throughout Turkey)

 

 

28-07-98

 

 

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Search | Newsline | Magazine | Reports | Services | Realaudio

 

© 1995-1998 Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Inc., All Rights Reserved.

http://www.rferl.org

[Stormig]

http://eng.kavkaz.memo.ru/printnews/engnew.../id/582690.html

 

CAUCASIAN KNOT / NEWS

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

20/8/2003

 

Artsax, Armenia / Ethnopolitical issues, International relations, Politics and authorities

Rob Mosher: "We are ready to greet Turkish-Armenian border opening"

š“We are ready to greet the opening of the Turkish-Armenian border and elimination of the blockade of Armenia. The peace in the region of the Karabah conflict is sure to be appreciated”, said the director for contacts with the Congress of the Armenian Assembly of America Rob Mosher, being a delegate in Armenia among the staff officials of the US senators and congressmen.

 

When he was asked the question how he saw the opening of the border in the view of the Karabah conflict and the fact that Azerbaijan pressed Turkey in this matter, he answered, ”In this question Turkey should be an example to follow for Azerbaijan”. Mosher expressed an opinion that the opening of the border met Turkish economic interests and would serve as a guarantee of common regional stability. He assured it would become an economic incentive not only for Armenia but also for all countries of the region, which would, in its turn, stabilize the region. He stressed that uneven economic development of the countries raised the risk of conflicts.

 

 

 

Source: Own correspondent

See also:

Caucasian Knot correspondents information

Nagorno-Artsax situation

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Stormig]

U.S. Says Presses Turkey To Open Armenia Border

 

By Emil Danielyan

 

The United States is pushing hard for the lifting of Turkey’s economic blockade of Armenia, according to a State Department report obtained by RFE/RL on Thursday.

 

“The U.S. Government continues to press the Government of Turkey at every appropriate opportunity to open the border with Armenia,” the document says. “Most recently the issue was raised with Turkish officials during Secretary [of State Colin] Powell’s April 2 visit to Ankara.”

 

The report, personally approved by Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, was drafted recently in response to a Congressional inquiry last year on the status of Turkish-Armenian relations and the Bush administration’s position on the issue. It makes a strong case for the restoration of commercial links between the two rival nations.

 

“Assuming the Turkish-Armenian border were reopened, one would expect: a reduction in transportation costs to and from Armenia, an increase in Turkish-Armenian trade and an improved overall economic environment in Armenia and eastern Turkey,” the report says, adding that the benefits would also be felt “throughout the region.”

 

Armenia, it says, could also serve as “the most direct transportation corridor” between Turkey and its close ally Azerbaijan. An open Turkish-Armenian border, according to the U.S. State Department, could lead to “an uninterrupted railroad link between Istanbul and Baku and the Mediterranean and Caspian Seas.”

 

Successive Turkish governments have refused to normalize relations with Armenia until the resolution of the Nagorno-Artsax, in a show of solidarity with Azerbaijan. U.S. efforts to get to Ankara to change its tough line have not been successful so far.

 

The State Department report gives no further Armenia-related details of Powell’s talks in Ankara which focused on the U.S.-led military campaign in Iraq. But it does reveal that Armenia’s accession to the World Trade Organization last December was facilitated by Turkey. “The Government of Turkey altered its stance on Armenia’s WTO accession last year, helping to pave the way for Armenia’s accession in December 2002,” it says.

 

The Turks had reportedly objected to Armenia’s entry into the WTO, apparently fearing that Yerevan could use the WTO framework to challenge the Turkish blockade. Armenian officials ruled out such a possibility last fall.

 

The State Department also says that U.S. officials discussed the Turkish-Armenian ties during Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian’s February visit to Washington. It implicitly praises Yerevan for “encouraging” and “increasing” various-level diplomatic contacts with Ankara in the course of 2002.

 

 

 

http://www.armenialiberty.org/armeniarepor...2EC9F645BDF.ASP

[Stormig]

http://www.armeniadiaspora.com/projects/mo...ots_tourism.htm

 

...

 

The province of Armavir is the second most populated area in Armenia after the capital Yerevan. Located in the fertile, well-watered Ararat valley between Mount Ararat and Mount Aragats, the province has a 45-mile common border with turkey, which runs alongside the River Arax.

 

...

 

International transportation infrastructure in the province includes the Yerevan-Zvartnots international airport with its new international cargo terminal built by a U.S. construction company. The railroad and the highway connecting Yerevan with northern borders of Armenia traverse through the Armavir province and link it with Georgian black sea ports of Batumi and Poti. Once the Turkish- Armenian border opens, the province stands to benefit from a highway link to turkey.

 

...

[Stormig]

Does the forum software stink or what? It capitalizes all words yet minisculizes words after the hyphen, hence making what I wrote into Turkish-armenian...

 

 

 

I fixed it -- Nairi

Edited November 4, 2003 by nairi

[THOTH]

Very nice serios of posts Stormy.

 

Well I hope it happens - long overdue - and I thinmk necessary not only for norrmalising current relations (which is a must - cannot be any other way in the long term...and needed for so many reasons...not that there aren't legit concerns as well..there are...but outweighed by benefits etc)....and I think this is the only way to open up Turkey in the area of recognizing some real history vis a vis the Armenains etc

[Setrak]

Highly unlikely I might assume. I don't think there is an urgency for Turkey to open the border any time soon. Probably those people living at the border regions can be disregarded alltogether by the political establishment. Even though Turks and Armenians will never become best of friends and develop feelings of mutual love, commercial activities will be beneficial for both countries especially for Armenia. Armenia will gain cheaper access to world markets and I can assume that the Turkish infrastructure, transportation facilities and legal guarantees are much more superior than Armenia's current trading partners.

[bellthecat]

And, these days, what real use is a single track railway for international trade? Only if the border were open to a road network would it be important and there is no proper road from Kars to the border. On the Turkish side, one was planned in the early 1990s, and if you travel by train to the border you can still see the unfinished road bridges. So, while opening the border would have a symbolic importance, its real economic importance will be minimal until the communications are improved.

 

Steve

[Stormig]

So exactly how much of a benefit IS there in goods being traded across a single border versus having Georgia in between? We know that the closure of the border hasn't resulted in halt of trade. And how many people (maybe a wrong way of specifying a population in question) is this benefit going to effect? Surely the consumers will be in an advantageous situation. And what about services? Tourism (of all sorts)?

What about the Baku-Ceyhan-Tbilisi pipeline the World Bank recently gave its full blessing to? For what end will it have gone through Georgia to start with? Which weighs heavier - the inexistence of the border or Armenian-Azerbaijani relations the way they are now? (I'd think the latter - if it doesn't weigh heavier, it provides greater uncertainty as opposed to any deal with Georgia, a country with which both of the other two are on good terms with.)

Will Turks learn anything? (Do Armenians need to learn anything about Turks? I don't think so.) What portion will? And would any of this give any hope for better treatment of Armenian historical and cultural heritage in Turkey? I'm thinking most likely not...

Opinions from people in contact with Armenia or in Armenia itself would be appreciated and appropriate.

[Sasun]

For one thing, Georgians are exploiting their monopoly to Black sea ports and charging too high (significantly higher than for Azeris) for transit through its territory. So opening borders will likely change this situation, assuming that would also mean letting Armenia use Turkish ports. The cost of transporation itself will also decrease due to reduction of the route. As a result many exportable productions in Armenia will become profitable and thus possible, and many imports will become cheaper. There maybe even Turkish investments in Armenia. In short, it will be a significant economic boost.

[Stormig]

Significant economic boost for Armenia - but how appealing is this for Turkey, beyond a few businessmen? Also - what with corruption and all, which needs to be straightened out, how willing would your average Turkish businessman be to invest, knowing/assured that his investments won't be confiscated for some dumb excuse?

 

Unrelated, but what about cultural, academic, etc., programs/exchanges? I think this would be important in the lives of the culturally and otherwise aware if not the commoner.

[MJ]

So exactly how much of a benefit IS there in goods being traded across a single border versus having Georgia in between? We know that the closure of the border hasn't resulted in halt of trade. And how many people (maybe a wrong way of specifying a population in question) is this benefit going to effect? Surely the consumers will be in an advantageous situation. And what about services? Tourism (of all sorts)?

 

What about the Baku-Ceyhan-Tbilisi pipeline the World Bank recently gave its full blessing to? For what end will it have gone through Georgia to start with? Which weighs heavier - the inexistence of the border or Armenian-Azerbaijani relations the way they are now? (I'd think the latter - if it doesn't weigh heavier, it provides greater uncertainty as opposed to any deal with Georgia, a country with which both of the other two are on good terms with.)

 

Will Turks learn anything? (Do Armenians need to learn anything about Turks? I don't think so.) What portion will? And would any of this give any hope for better treatment of Armenian historical and cultural heritage in Turkey? I'm thinking most likely not...

Opinions from people in contact with Armenia or in Armenia itself would be appreciated and appropriate.

 

Not much benefit for a long time to come.

 

It is obvious by now that the government of Turkey doesn't see much benefit for Turkey from the lifting of the blockade. I keep hearing from "informed sources" that it will be lifted in "two months," "six months," etc. Each time it turns to be just a conversation, which means that Turkey does not see urgency in the matter for herself.

 

Now, given that the transportation tariffs imposed on Armenia are quite high, i.e. there is already "established market," even if Turkey lifts the blockade, I don't see any reason why would Turkey impose less tariffs than Georgia - there are no competitive forces to push the price down.

 

Perhaps the cost of imports into Armenia from Turkey would go somewhat down, assuming no significant customs duty. But I still don't see any reason for Turkey to do it so far as she does not need significant output from the Armenian economy, which I don't see for many years to come. It is possible that there may be some targeted and focused mutual economic developments, which would not be bad, either. But I don't see anything significant to gain from it in the big picture of things.

 

However, there is an important political gain from the opening of the borders, assuming that Armenia can enhance further the presumed political axis.

 

Otherwise, I think there is too much hype in this issue.

Edited November 6, 2003 by MJ

[Sasun]

Significant economic boost for Armenia - but how appealing is this for Turkey, beyond a few businessmen?

Oh, I thought you were asking about Armenia. For Turkey, Armenia is too small a market and there is not enough incentives for such a small market. But we hear that Turkey would be interested to use Armenia as a transit territory to/from Azerbaijan and Middle Asian countries. Actually, we also need Turkey mostly for transit at this point when Turkish consumers are not as rich as in Europe and elsewhere.

 

I never never heard anything about interest in cultural/educational exchanges and things of this nature.

[MJ]

Email communication:

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

TURKISH- ARMENIAN BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT COUNCIL TABDC

 

 

 

***********************************************

 

Discovering Common Grounds of Economic Cooperation

 

***********************************************

 

VISIT US @ www.tabdc.org

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DESPITE OF NEGATIVE CONVICTIONS, TURKISH PUBLIC IS IN FAVOUR OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE RELATIONS WITH ARMENIA

 

 

 

On 3rd December 2003, results of a survey held by a group of academician with 2,183 persons in 12 cities about the main foreign policy problems of Turkey has been published in Radikal. Research has been assessed as an important input to determine the social attitudes and choices in Turkey.

 

 

 

According to results of the research, general attitudes of the Turkish public towards the neigbour countries are as follows: Turkish public has negative convictions about Armenia by 71 percent and about Israil and Greece by 63 percent. This ratio shows that general attitudes of Turkish public towards external world are negative. This also overlaps with the threat perceptions from the coutries of the region. 74 percent of the Turkish public thinks that neighbour countries have territorial pretentions on Turkey. This result shows that “enemy culture” has a wide social base and society has adopted the description of “Turkey surrounded with the enemies” with a confidential culture.

 

 

 

Despite of anxiety towards neigbour countries, Turkish public thinks that Iran can not export her regime to Turkey (77%). Opinion of the public about the development of the relations with the Armenia which is the main country has the most negative convictions from the Turkish public in the region, is “yes” by 44.7 percent, “no” by 43.5 percent. By the research Turkish public has accepted the idea of Armenian genocide allegations must be freely discussible in Turkey by 61 percent. Inspite of historical and current oversensitivity of the subject, society has adopted a position in favour of freedom of expression.

[Stormig]

Armenian foreign minister praises talks with his Turkish counterpart

 

Mediamax news agency

6 Dec 03

 

YEREVAN

 

Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan has said that his meeting

with his Turkish counterpart Abdullah Gul was "qualitatively different

from two previous ones". The two ministers met in Brussels on 5

December.

 

"We are close to taking the first step," Oskanyan told Mediamax,

commenting on the meeting.

 

"Although it is too early to make clear statements, I have to say that

the meeting has become an important phase, and I think that within the

next few months we will achieve the first small positive result in the

issue of the Turkish-Armenian border," Oskanyan said.

 

He went on to add that regional problems and issues of Armenia's and

Turkey's relations with the European Union were discussed at the

meeting as well. He said that an agreement on another meeting had been

reached.

[Stormig]

Any credibility already, please?

 

 

ANKARA - Turkish Daily News

8 December 2003

 

Oskanian expects opening of Turkish border soon

 

ANKARA - Turkish Daily News

Armenia's foreign minister has voiced optimism on the possibility of opening

the country's border with Turkey and said he expected steps to be taken in

the next few months.

 

Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian said his recent meeting with his

Turkish counterpart Abdullah Gul was more substantial than past meetings.

 

"We are about to take the first steps," Oskanian told Armenia's Mediamax

news agency. "I think we will be able to get the first positive results on

the opening of Turkish-Armenian border in the next few months.

 

Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 after Armenian forces occupied

the Azeri territory of Nagorno-Artsax. The Turkish side has said the

restoration of ties depends upon Armenia's withdrawal from these

territories, ending backing of the Armenian diaspora's efforts to get

allegations of an Armenian genocide at the hands of the late Ottoman Empire

recognized in international platforms and recognizing the current

Turkish-Armenian border.

 

Oskanian said he and Gul had also agreed to hold another meeting in the

future.

[Sasun]

Oskanian expects opening of Turkish border soon

This may have to do with the new phase of Artsax talks. There appears to be more pressure on Armenia, openning the Turkish border would be helpful to gain Armenian public support for more concessions on the Artsax issue.

[ED]

It wouldn’t be hard to win a public support for concisions in this state of socio-economic problems Armenia is facing now days.

[Stormig]

Armenian minister hails progress in Turkish relations

 

Mediamax news agency

14 Jan 04

 

Yerevan, 14 January: Armenia will continue its dialogue with Turkey

aimed at reaching a considerable progress in bilateral relations,

Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan said in Yerevan today.

 

Vardan Oskanyan noted that despite the harshly worded statements made

by Ankara representatives from time to time, Armenian-Turkish relations

were regarded by Turkey as less dependent on the settlement of the

Nagornyy Artsax conflict in 2003 than before, Mediamax reports.

 

The Armenian foreign minister said that in 2003 Armenia and Turkey

carried on the dialogue not only on the level of foreign ministers

of the two countries but also within the framework of international

organizations, especially UNESCO, the Council of Europe and the

Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization. "My meetings with

Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul last year let us believe that

our dialogue is not over and we can achieve positive results if

persistent work is carried out," Vardan Oskanyan said.

 

Commenting on a possible trilateral meeting of Armenian, Turkish and

Azerbaijani foreign ministers, Vardan Oskanyan said that Yerevan had

not received such an offer yet. The minister noted that Armenia had

already taken part in two such meetings and did not rule out the

possibility of holding a new one, provided that during the talks

Turkey did not act as a mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

[Sasun]

I hope that the Armenian Authorities will think twice before opening the border. They are so naive, Turkey is a country with a 70000000 counting population. Can you imagine what will happen if they open the border and this people start traveling in and out Armenia. In that case we for sure can forget about Armenia. This would be one of the biggest mistakes in armenian history, we should learn from our expirience from the past. What they did to us before CAN happen in future too.

Davo jan, I disagree. First of all, why do you think 70 million Turks would all of a sudden want to travel to Armenia? Second, when they travel they bring money to spend, so that's a boost to the economy as every country who is open to turism knows. Not to mention all the business activities that would be important for the economy. There could a flood of cheap products to compete with Armenian made products and thus harm the economy, that's a different story (I believe these questions have been addressed in this or other threads).

[Stormig]

Eurasianet organization, United States

April 8 2004

 

AZERBAIJAN: TURKEY COULD PROVE SPOILER FOR NAGORNO-Artsax PEACE

Zulfugar Agayev: 4/08/04

 

Prospects for a Nagorno-Artsax peace agreement suffered a potential

setback recently when President Ilham Aliyev warned that Azerbaijan

might withdraw from peace talks if Turkey opens its border with

Armenia. In recent months, Turkey, a key Azerbaijani ally, has

indicated that it may be willing to consider ending its 11-year

blockade of Armenia. The Turkish decision-making process appears to

be driven by Ankara's ambitions to join the European Union.

 

Turkish-Armenian relations have been marked by animosity for much of

the past century, with tension continuing to revolve around the mass

slaughter of Armenians by Ottoman Turkish soldiers during World War

I. On an official visit to the United States in late January, Turkish

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that his Justice and

Development Party (AKP) government might decide to re-open the border

with Armenia "if the friendly initiatives of Turkey were

reciprocated." Erdogan said that Turks living in economically

depressed neighboring regions with Armenia want to see the border

opened so that they can easily trade with the former Soviet republic.

Currently, trade between the two states - estimated by the

Turkish-Armenian Business Council, a non-governmental organization,

at roughly $70 million - takes place via Georgia and Iran.

 

Without Turkey, Azerbaijan would be the only state maintaining a

blockade of Armenia over Yerevan's ongoing occupation of Azerbaijani

territory captured during the Nagorno-Artsax war. A decision to

open Turkey's borders with Armenia, Aliyev said, would leave Baku at

a disadvantage in negotiating for the withdrawal of Armenian troops

from Azerbaijani territory. "If Turkey were to open its doors to

Armenia, Azerbaijan will lose an important lever in finding a

solution to the conflict," the president told reporters on March 24

after returning from an official visit to Uzbekistan. "It also would

make it impossible for us to continue the peace talks and would even

bring the talks to an end."

 

Already that threat appears to have been put to work. A meeting

between the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers, originally

scheduled for March 29 in Prague, was cancelled at "the wish of one

side," OSCE Minsk Group Chairman Yuri Merzlyakov told the Azerbaijani

Channel ATV. The Minsk Group, made up of the US, UK, Russia and

France, is charged with overseeing the Nagorno-Artsax peace

process. Citing an "informed source" in the Armenian Foreign

Ministry, the Armenian news agency Mediamax reported that the

cancellation had not been at Armenia¹s instigation.

 

Little progress has been made in the Nagorno-Artsax peace process

since 2002. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight

archive]. Despite intermittent announcements of fresh peace

proposals, and a meeting between Armenian President Robert Kocharian

and President Aliyev last December in Geneva, no concrete

breakthrough has emerged. Aliyev stressed in early February that he

was "not in favor of making compromises," and Azerbaijani officials

later announced that they were in "no hurry" to find a solution to

the Artsax question.

 

Since Aliyev's initial comments, other Azerbaijani leaders have

attempted to exert pressure on Ankara to maintain the status quo. "If

Turkey opens the border with Armenia, it will deal a blow not only to

Azerbaijani-Turkish friendship but also to the entire Turkic world,"

Azerbaijani Parliament Speaker Murtuz Alasgarov told MPs on April 6,

according to a Trend news agency report.

 

Until recently, Turkish support for Azerbaijan on the Artsax

question appeared steadfast. Turkey and Azerbaijan share close

cultural ties. Although Turkey was one of the first countries to

recognize Armenian independence in 1991, Ankara has no diplomatic

relations with its neighbor. In 1993, Ankara closed the Turkish

border with Armenia in an act of solidarity with Azerbaijan.

 

But now, more than 10 years later, Turkey's foreign policy objectives

have changed. In December 2004, the European Union will decide

whether to begin accession talks with Turkey, potentially putting the

country in line to become the EU's first predominantly Muslim member

state. To enhance Turkey's chances for success, Prime Minister

Erdogan launched an ambitious reform program to improve the country's

checkered record on human, political and ethnic minority rights and

rebuild its economy from a five-year-long recession. [For background

see the Eurasia Insight archive].

 

>From the EU's perspective, lifting the blockade of Armenia remains a

key component of any program for change. A draft version of the

European Parliament's yearly report on the status of Turkey's

accession bid reportedly called on the country "to open the borders

with Armenia, establish good-neighbor relations . . . and to give up

any action impeding the reconciliation of the two countries."

 

EU economic clout provides a compelling incentive for Ankara to

listen. In 2002, the latest year for which figures are available, the

EU ranked as Turkey's top trade partner, accounting for more than 50

percent of its exports and 45 percent of its imports. At the same

time, the United States has also urged Turkey to rebuild ties with

Armenia. At a March 26 press conference in Yerevan, US Deputy

Secretary of State Richard Armitage stated that restoring official

economic ties between the two states would bring benefits to both

sides "rather dramatically and relatively quickly."

 

For its part, Azerbaijan represents vast oil and natural gas wealth

that could enable Turkey to realize its dream of becoming a highly

profitable East-West energy bridge. Conscious of this weight, Aliyev

was quick to remind Ankara where its interests should lie. "Turkey is

a great and powerful nation and I am sure that Turkey will withstand

the pressures [to open its border with Armenia]," the Azerbaijani

president stressed. "The Turkish-Azerbaijani brotherhood is above

everything."

 

Aliyev said he had received previous assurances from both Erdogan and

Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul that the Turkish-Armenian border would

be opened only after Armenia withdraws from Azerbaijan's occupied

territories. Ahmed Unal Cevikoz, Turkey's ambassador to Baku, told

The Baku Sun, an English-language weekly, that Erdogan's statement in

Washington had probably been "misunderstood" by the Azerbaijanis.

 

The Turkish ambassador emphasized that his country maintains all

three of its conditions for opening its border with Armenia:

withdrawal from Nagorno-Artsax, an end to Armenian territorial

claims on Turkey's Eastern Anatolia region, and an end to Armenia's

campaign to secure international recognition of the 1915 slaughter of

1.5 million Armenians by Turkey's Ottoman Empire as genocide.

 

But some Azerbaijani analysts believe that Turkey's changes on other

foreign policy questions presage a similar about-face on its Artsax

position. Thirty years after its invasion of Cyprus, Turkey recently

began talks with Greece on a UN reunification plan for the island,

another ingredient for Turkey's accession to the EU. Turkey also has

bowed to US pressure on the Kurdish question, as Ankara has refrained

from sending Turkish troops into Kurdish-populated northern Iraq, and

has since extended language and media rights to its own Kurdish

populations. "This policy of retreat is obvious in the positions that

Ankara now holds on the issues of Cyprus, the Iraqi Turkomen and also

on Artsax," said Altay Goyushov, a Baku-based expert on Turkish

affairs.

 

Some analysts argue that Erdogan's government is more concerned with

expanding trade than it is about potential for friction with a fellow

Turkic, Muslim state. "I think there are many in AKP who believe that

increased commerce makes better neighbors, and thus eases the way for

better relations," Ugur Akinci, a Turkish analyst who accompanied

Erdogan to Washington, wrote in an opinion piece published in the

Turkish Daily News.

 

The World Bank agrees. Both the Bank and the UN's Food and

Agriculture Organization have long argued that the blockade has

hindered the economic development of both Armenia and Turkey. The

World Bank has estimated that the lifting of both the Azerbaijani and

Turkish blockades could increase Armenia's GDP by as much as 30-38

percent. The Turkish-Armenian Business Council has estimated that

bilateral trade could reach $300 million per year with the lifting of

the blockade.

 

As Azerbaijan looks on from the side, one analyst cautions that

patience is the best operating strategy. "We should consider that

Azerbaijan and Turkey are two separate countries," said Goyushov,

"and although the two are bound by ethnicity and religion, their

interests can sometimes be different."

 

 

Editor's Note: Zulfugar Agayev is a freelance writer based in Baku.

[Anonymouse]

I hope that the Armenian Authorities will think twice before opening the border. They are so naive, Turkey is a country with a 70000000 counting population. Can you imagine what will happen if they open the border and this people start traveling in and out Armenia. In that case we for sure can forget about Armenia. This would be one of the biggest mistakes in armenian history, we should learn from our expirience from the past. What they did to us before CAN happen in future too.

Anyone versed on the basics of economics knows this would be beneficial for Armenia in the long-run. Let's not be obtuse about this shall we?

[koko]

I agree with Davo.

They are already selling out armenia.

People from all over the world come to armenia and buy out cheap antiques, that really belongs in the national museum.People are poor and sell them for cheap prices, we're selling out our national heritage.

And it wont take long before mcdonalds will start to pop out in every street corner in armenia as well.

[Stormig]

The Georgian Messenger

30 April 2004

 

Prepared by Anna Arzanova

Azerbaijan fears reopening Turkish-Armenian border

 

According to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliev

went to Ankara where held negotiations with senior Turkish leadership.

President Aliev met with the Ambassador of Turkey to Baku Unal Chevikez on

the eve of his journey and discussed details

of his visit. "The achievements of Turkey make us happy and the achievements

of Azerbaijan make Turkey happy. I am very happy that

important steps were and are taken in this direction," stated Aliev. Despite

such an optimistic tone, the experts in Baku noticed that there is

some tension in the relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey.

 

The problem is that authorities in Turkey are inclined to establish a normal

border-customs regime with Armenia in the near future. According to Turkish

diplomatic sources, there really are intense, informal diplomatic contacts

on this issue between Yerevan and Ankara. The fact of such negotiations was

also confirmed by the former Minister of Internal Affairs of Azerbaijan, the

leader of the National Democratic Party, Iskender Gamidov.

 

Baku has a very sickly reaction to the possibility of changes along the

Turkish-Armenian border and even tries to dissuade officials in

Ankara. Aliev stated once again that he is against the opening of the

Turkish-Armenian boarder, because this step will not contribute to

settle the Artsax conflict peacefully.