I R A N

[MosJan]

Americans overwhelmingly support Iran nuclear deal

 

By a margin of 2-to-1, Americans support the nuclear deal struck with Iran over the weekend. In addition, Americans are strongly against using military force should Tehran renege on the agreed terms, a Reuters/Ipsos poll revealed Tuesday.

According to the survey, 44 percent of Americans support the interim deal signed by Iran and the P5+1 powers: US, Russia, UK, France, China, Germany and the European Union. Twenty-two percent oppose the deal.

Under the deal struck on Sunday night, Iran agreed to freeze its nuclear program for the next 6 months and cease construction work on the Arak reactor. In addition, Tehran agreed to stop enriching uranium beyond 5 per cent in a bid to allay fears that it seeks to construct a nuclear weapon. In return, sanctions on Tehran’s economy will be lightened, allowing Iran access to $4.2 billion in funds frozen as part of financial sanctions.

Though Americans didn’t indicate trust in Iranian intentions, the survey showed Americans are not interested in new US military involvement after long wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Even if the deal doesn’t hold, 49 percent said they want the US to increase sanctions on Iran, and 31 percent want further diplomacy. Only 20 percent want to use military force against Iran.

Congress, for its part, has already demonstrated appetite for further sanctions on the country. The House of Representatives has moved forward legislation that would increase pressure on Iran, though Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has said the Senate will not take up the issue until after the legislature’s Thanksgiving break.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already condemned the nuclear deal, saying the world has become a more dangerous place.

"What was achieved last night in Geneva is not a historic agreement, it was a historic mistake," Netanyahu told his cabinet Sunday. “Today the world has become a much more dangerous place because the most dangerous regime in the world took a significant step towards obtaining the world's most dangerous weapon.

"Israel is not committed by this agreement,” Netanyahu said. “The regime in Iran is committed to destroying Israel. [but] Israel has the right and obligation to defend itself from any threat, [and] will not allow Iran to develop a military nuclear capability.”

Netanyahu said that the international community had actually “agreed for the first time to uranium enrichment in Iran, while ignoring Security Council resolutions that they themselves promoted.”

US Secretary of State Kerry assured Israel will be safer over the next six months due to the agreement reached in Geneva.

Though “Israel is threatened by what has been going on in Iran,” the deal will keep the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program under supervision and control, said Kerry.

"But I believe that from this day - for the next six months - Israel is in fact safer than it was yesterday because we now have a mechanism by which we are going to expand the amount of time in which they (the Iranians) can break out (toward making a nuclear bomb),” he told CNN Sunday.

The Reuters/Ipsos online poll, conducted from Sunday through Tuesday with 591 respondents, has a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

[MosJan]

France: EU likely to lift some Iran sanctions in December

Published time: November 25, 2013 08:14

 

EU will likely ease sanctions in place against Iran in December, said French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius. The announcement comes hot on the heels of a landmark deal over Tehran’s nuclear program that ended a decade of diplomatic deadlock.

The European Union will ease sanctions imposed on Tehran “in December,” the French foreign minister told radio Europe 1 on Monday. Fabius added that a meeting between EU foreign ministers had been scheduled for the coming weeks to discuss the lightening of the sanctions.

Although Fabius did not specify which sanctions would be lifted, he said that the move would be “reversible.”

“We are doing the same as the American side,” said Fabius. The P5+1 reached a deal with Iran in the early hours of Sunday morning that will allow Tehran access to $4.2 billion in funds frozen as part of the financial penalties imposed on the country.

The agreement will allow Tehran to continue enriching uranium, but only to 5 per cent, a far cry from the 90 per cent needed for the construction of an atomic bomb. Minister Fabius said that although the international community had agreed to let Iran continue enrichment, the deal does not acknowledge Tehran’s “right to enrichment.”

“Iran cannot do whatever it wants, there are specific limitations,” he said. After the deal was clinched the international community has diverged somewhat in its interpretation of what it means for Iran’s nuclear program. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi wrote on Twitter that the right to enrichment had been recognized in negotiations.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov intimated that Iran’s right to enrichment has been acknowledged.

“This deal means that we agree with the need to recognize Iran's right for peaceful nuclear energy, including the right for enrichment, Lavrov told Russian press following negotiations.

In contrast Washington said that while it accepted Tehran’s right to a “peaceful nuclear program,” its right to enrichment had not been acknowledged.

“The first step, let me be clear, does not say that Iran has a right to enrich uranium,” said Secretary of State John Kerry on Sunday.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague said that anyone trying to undermine the nuclear deal with Iran would be “discouraged,” adding that this includes Israel.

 

“We would discourage anybody in the world, including Israel, from taking any steps that would undermine this agreement and we will make that very clear to all concerned,” Hague told the UK parliament.

The Geneva has, for the most part, been hailed as a success by the international community and a step towards the normalization of relations with Iran. However, Israel has opposed the deal and condemned it as a “historic mistake.”

At a cabinet meeting on Sunday Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel was not bound by the new agreement

“The regime in Iran is committed to destroying Israel. [but] Israel has the right and obligation to defend itself from any threat, [and] will not allow Iran to develop a military nuclear capability.”

When asked if he feared the possibility of a preventative, Israeli strike, Fabius said he did not because “no one would understand” such a move “at this stage.”

[Yervant1]

IRAN-U.S. RAPPROCHEMENT - WHAT'S IN IT FOR ISRAEL / SAUDI ARABIA?

IPS - Inter Press Service
November 22, 2013 Friday

Mark N. Katz
WASHINGTON, Nov 22 2013

Israel, Saudi Arabia, and some of the other Arab Gulf states are
deeply sceptical of the Barack Obama administration's efforts to
reach a deal with Iran limiting its nuclear program and to improve
U.S.-Iranian relations generally.

Washington's traditional Middle Eastern allies warn that the Islamic
Republic cannot be trusted, and that Washington must not reach
a deal with Iran that either fails to adequately limit Iranian
nuclear ambitions, or which Tehran has no intention of abiding by
even if it does. Better ties offer the best opportunity to change how
Tehran calculates the costs and benefits of hostile behavior toward
Washington's traditional allies in the Middle East.

Israeli and Saudi leaders in particular are adamant about this, and
are frustrated, angry, and mystified that the Obama administration
knows of their concerns about Iran, but is attempting to reach an
agreement with it anyway. What their behavior reveals is that it is
not just Iran whom Israeli and Saudi leaders don't trust, but also
the Obama administration and Washington more generally.

While Israel and Saudi Arabia (among others) have had good reason
to fear the Islamic Republic of Iran in the past, the strong degree
of Iranian-U.S. hostility motivated Washington to contain Iran -
and its doing so benefited Israel and Saudi Arabia. What Israeli
and Saudi leaders now fear is that if Iranian-U.S. relations improve
significantly, Washington will no longer act so strongly to contain
Iran.

Indeed, the U.S. may press Israel and Saudi Arabia to soften their own
policies toward Iran so as not to hinder the process of Iranian-U.S.

rapprochement or Tehran's progress in "rejoining the international
community."

Something like this may well occur. And it might not just be the
Obama administration doing this. Because U.S. sanctions against
Iran have been so very tight and because U.S. public opinion has
viewed Iran so negatively for so very many years, there have been
few vested interests in the U.S. (apart from a portion of the small
Iranian-American community) willing to lobby for improved ties between
Washington and Tehran.

But as Iranian-U.S. relations improve, this will change. U.S.

corporations - especially petroleum firms - have long wanted to do
business with Iran, but sanctions and Iran's negative image prevented
this. Improved Iranian-U.S. relations will result in U.S. business
being more willing to lobby for reducing sanctions (which, they will
argue, mainly benefit their competitors in Europe, Russia, and China).

Further, the prospect of improved Washington-Tehran ties may free the
Armenian-American lobby to argue that better Iranian-U.S. relations
would greatly help their homeland escape its over-dependence on Russia
vis-a-vis Turkey and Azerbaijan (neighbors with which Armenia has
long had difficult relations).

And despite its differences with Armenia, Azerbaijan - as well as
Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and U.S. petroleum companies active in them -
would welcome the opportunity to export petroleum via Iran. Further,
the U.S. military and all those concerned with containing the Taliban
may see a friendly Iran as a better route for supplying Afghan
government forces than either unreliable Pakistan or the long and
expensive route through Russia and Central Asia.

And being a professor, I cannot help but note that cash-strapped U.S.

universities would very much like to see the return of large numbers
of full tuition-paying Iranian students.

If all these - and probably other unanticipated - constituencies with
a strong interest in friendly Iranian-U.S. relations in the U.S.

arise, then Israel, Saudi Arabia, and others who now fear Iran will
find it difficult to press Washington to resume a tougher policy
toward Iran in the future. Anticipation of this state of affairs is
undoubtedly an important factor motivating Israeli and Saudi leaders to
try to forestall an Iranian-U.S. rapprochement now before this occurs.

What they do not appreciate, though, is that improved Iranian-U.S.

relations will lead to a similar process unfolding in Iran. The
prospect of improved Iranian-U.S. relations will allow those who
would benefit from it to argue in favor of this process and against
policies that undermine it.

While it is difficult for Iranian actors to argue against the position
that Iran must remain ever vigilant against U.S. hostility when U.S.

policy toward Iran is indeed hostile, it will be easier for them to do
so if they can point to a real prospect of an improved relationship,
or better yet, an actually improved relationship that has provided
benefits they do not want to lose.

To put it bluntly: when the ayatollahs and even the leadership of the
Revolutionary Guards can travel to and own property in the U.S., send
their children to college there, and earn money as consultants to and
partners with U.S. corporations, it is doubtful that they will want
to risk losing all this for the dubious benefits of issuing nuclear
threats or supporting ungrateful and unprofitable allies such as Hamas,
Hezbollah, or Assad.

Fearful Israelis and Saudis (along with their U.S. supporters)
reading this will undoubtedly claim that the Iranians want to "have
their cake and eat it too" through benefiting from improved economic
ties with the West in order to more easily build up their military
strength and support their militant allies.

But while those who fear Iran may believe otherwise, it will simply be
impossible for Tehran to build and maintain good relations with the
U.S. while at the same time pursuing hostile policies toward Israel,
Saudi Arabia, and others. The rapprochement process - and all of Iran's
benefits from it - would quickly end if it did despite the growing
U.S. and Iranian domestic constituencies seeking better relations.

The growth of these constituencies, though, could be powerful forces
acting to forestall counter-productive Iranian behaviour.

Hostile Iranian-U.S. relations have not served to put an end to
hostile Iranian policies toward Israel and Saudi Arabia in the past,
and are unlikely to do so in the future. An improved Iranian-U.S.

relationship will not lead to Iran becoming friends with Israel
and Saudi Arabia (which, of course, are not exactly friends with
each other).

Better ties between Washington and Tehran, though, offer the best
opportunity to change how Tehran calculates the costs and benefits
of hostile behaviour (if not hostile statements) toward Washington's
traditional allies in the Middle East.

Mark N. Katz is a professor of government and politics at George
Mason University in Fairfax, VA. He is the author of many books and
articles, including Leaving without Losing: The War on Terror after
Iraq and Afghanistan (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2012).

[MosJan]

Iran’s Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi: Civil Disobedience for a Free Iran
BEVERLY HILLS — In an interview with Breitbart News on Monday, Iran’s exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi called for greater American and international support for Iran’s freedom-craving people.

The crown prince is the son of Iran’s last king, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi. He is the president of the National Council for Free Elections in Iran.

“We realize that the current regime is not going to voluntarily leave the scene, which is why we have put together a campaign of resistance and civil disobedience,” Pahlavi told Breitbart News. “And that’s why we’ve been in contact with a variety of secularists within Iran representing all sorts of views from workers to teachers to labor unions” to other organizations.

Over half of Iran’s population is under the age of 40. The crown prince noted that the advent of social media and technology is a priceless tool in the quest for freedom. “And fortunately in this world of social media and Internet communication most of the give and take happens by means that were not available 20 years ago,” he said.

Pahlavi recently penned a letter to President Donald Trump congratulating him on his victory. Asked how he views Trump and his administration with regard to U.S.-Iran relations, he said, “I think the current president has indicated that he wants to be much more in support of strengthening the people’s hand and, at the same time, weakening the regime. And I think that’s exactly what we were hoping to hear.”

He said this rhetoric and support “should not be limited to the U.S,” adding that he’s “always advocated that the empowerment of any people is always the best solution at the end, especially when they have to fight very oppressive regimes. So, engaging with the people, helping civil society in these countries, is the quickest path to maximizing the success of such nations to overcome whatever struggle they are facing.”

Iran’s former recently died. The businessman had a checkered political past and was considered the father of Iran’s nuclear program. While some within the regime described his as a “man of peace,” he was better remembered by many of the Iranian people as an oppressor and for having orchestrated several international terrorist atrocities.

The crown prince also commented on the recent death of Iran’s former president, Hashami Rafsanjani, who was described in the media as a “man of peace” but who was the father of Iran’s nuclear program, as well as an oppressive ruler. Pahlavi compared Rafsanjani’s death to the passing of Cuba’s late dictator Fidel Castro: “It’s not the same anymore, no matter how many more junior cadres remain. And in that sense, more of a void will be created.” He noted the importance of making sure that “the void is filled with the proper alternative. That’s something everyone should be concerned with.”

Earlier Monday evening, Pahlavi addressed a private audience and urged “civil disobedience by means of non-violence.”

http://www.breitbart.com/california/2017/01/25/exclusive-irans-crown-prince-reza-pahlavi-civil-disobedience-for-a-free-iran/http://media.breitbart.com/media/2017/01/Crown-Prince-Reza-Pahlavi-Getty-640x480.jpg

 

 

[Arshak1946]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMjfz82UtP4&feature=push-u-sub&attr_tag=9gII2IoFOvPxZyxF-6

 

 

Watch and comments.

[Yervant1]

 

A1+

 

Levon Shirinyan: There are people in Armenia who hinder the rapprochement between Armenia and Iran (video)

• 14:14 | November 29,2017 | Politics

• Հայ
• Рус

http://en.a1plus.am/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/UVHCxBXNvU0.jpg

Political scientist Levon Shirinyan thinks that Iran should assist Armenia in strengthening its independence. He thinks that Iran should understand Armenia’s military-political situation. Levon Shirinyan says that Armenia should work on strengthening the ties with Iran, as Armenia-Iran relations can be even stronger. The political scientist assures that in case we are not active, Iran may go other way and may even reconcile with Azerbaijan. “There are people in Armenia who hinder the rapprochement between Armenia and Iran. These people are still hear and will continue to hinder the process,” said Levon Shirinyan.

To remind, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif arrived in Armenia yesterday to meet with Serzh Sargsyan and the RA Prime Minister Karen Karapetyan, as well as to participated in the opening ceremony of the Armenian-Iranian business forum.

http://en.a1plus.am/1267364.html

[Yervant1]

Panorama, Armenia

Dec 25 2017

Iranian president visited families of Armenian martyrs fallen during Iran-Iraq war

President of Iran Hassan Rouhani visited on Sunday the families of Armenian martyrs Georgekeshish Harutun and Edvin Shahmirian on Christmas Eve and spoke with them, Iranian sources reported. Saluting patience and self-sacrifice of families of great martyrs, President Rouhani said the entire Iranian nation defend blood of our dear martyrs who defended the Iranian land by giving their lives.

To note, some 17,000 Armenians participated in Iran-Iraq War (1980–88) with 260 of them becoming martyrs in the course of war fought between 1980 and 1988.

During the visit, Dr. Rouhani also stressed that in Iran, all religions and ethnic groups stand by each other in happiness and sadness, saying “our people have always stood by each other and will continue to do so,” Mehr agency quoted the president as saying.

Referring the conditions of Christians in the Middle East, the President said: “Christians have suffered a lot of damages in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon from terrorists and this was also the case for Muslims.”

Therefore, terrorists created conditions in which fates of Muslims and Christians became interwoven more strongly requiring both sides to assist each other more than the past, he underlined.

https://www.panorama.am/en/news/2017/12/25/Iranian-president-visited-families-of-Armenian-martyrs-fallen-during-Iran-Iraq-war/1883996

[yergatuni1]

If the current Iranian government is removed amid these recent protests and a pro-US government is put in its place, wonder how that will affect Armenia and artsakh. I think it will put more pressure on Armenia.

[Yervant1]

Iran and Armenia has a long historical friendship, which will never change. Both countries interests are aligned, so I don't foresee any change no matter who is in charge of Iran.

[MosJan]

it don't look good

[MosJan]

Christian Leaders Pray Over Trump During Launch Of Evangelicals For Trump Coalition

 

 

[MosJan]

[MosJan]

[MosJan]

[MosJan]

[MosJan]

[MosJan]

clouds getting darker around iran

[MosJan]

yet again clouds are getting darker around Iran... turks / azeris / izrael & brothers are sharpening there swords

[MosJan]

https://a1plus.am/hy/article/414584?fbclid=IwAR2BuLxK6g51Cpu7IoI--JF1zNhy_70SVKTcrXx00LXYqHbaJyTVq72nVp4

Խոմենեիի ներկայացուցչությունը Բաքվում փակելը գոտկատեղից ներքև հարված է Իրանին․ Արամ Սարգսյանը

[Yervant1]

The National Interest

Oct 5 2021

As Tensions Rise, Iran Holds Military Exercises Near Azerbaijan

Iran’s anger also stems partly from Azerbaijan’s quiet security partnership with Israel, which it views as a potential threat to its territory.

by Trevor Filseth L

In a show of force directed at Azerbaijan amid rising tensions, Iran’s military has initiated a series of exercises near the neighboring country’s border. Footage broadcast on Iran’s state-run television portrayed tanks and artillery taking part in the exercises in northwestern Iran, and broadcasters claimed that Iran had tested a domestically-manufactured long-range drone.

Tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan have escalated throughout 2021. In September, troops from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) deployed to the border in response to joint military exercises between Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Pakistan.

Iran’s anger also stems partly from Azerbaijan’s quiet security partnership with Israel, which it views as a potential threat to its territory. However, the small Caspian nation’s ties to Tel Aviv have proven highly advantageous. Israeli and Turkish drone technology, as well as other assistance, were crucial to Baku’s victory over Armenia in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War from September to November 2020. In that war, Iran proclaimed neutrality and refused to aid either side, despite its traditionally closer ties to Armenia.

Another point of contention between the two countries was raised after Azerbaijan imposed taxes on Iranian truck drivers passing through Azerbaijan’s newly conquered territory in Nagorno-Karabakh to bring goods to Armenia, and arrested two truck drivers, stoking outrage in Tehran.

Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, the Foreign Minister in the administration of newly elected President Ebrahim Raisi, warned Azerbaijan’s new ambassador to Tehran that the Islamic Republic would not “tolerate the presence and activities of the Zionist regime” along its borders. Amir-Abdollahian indicated that Iran would do “whatever necessary” to repel Israeli encroachment, ominously warning that the IRGC’s Quds Force were “soldiers without borders.”

Iranian leaders also expressed concern over terror groups such as ISIS, which it suggested had infiltrated its members into Azerbaijan as volunteers during its 2020 war. Azerbaijan was known to recruit Syrian mercenaries to its side during the conflict, possibly violating international law in the process.

Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev told the Turkish state-run Anadolu Agency news outlet that Iran had not informed him of the planned exercises and questioned Tehran’s motivations for doing so, although he acknowledged that it was their “sovereign right” to conduct the exercises on their own territory.

While Iran and Azerbaijan are both majority-Shi’a Muslim states—two of the world’s only four such states, in addition to Bahrain and Iraq—they have a complicated history and some degree of mutual animosity. Ethnic Azeris are a majority in several of Iran’s northwestern provinces and have pushed for separation from Tehran on several occasions in the past century.

Trevor Filseth is a current and foreign affairs writer for the National Interest.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/tensions-rise-iran-holds-military-exercises-near-azerbaijan-194901

[Yervant1]

Oct 5 2021

"Tehran is watching closely." What will happen to cargo transportation from Iran to Armenia

• JAMnews, Yerevan
  

For three weeks already, Azerbaijani police and customs checkpoints are operating on the section of the road between the Armenian cities of Goris and Kapan, thus slowing down cargo transportation from Iran to Armenia. There is a section of the route that came under the control of Azerbaijan after the second Karabakh war.

Azerbaijani customs officers stop Iranian trucks on the Vorotan section of the Goris-Kapan road and demand payment of customs duties “for crossing the border with Azerbaijan”. Customs posts, according to the official report of Azerbaijan, appeared due to the fact that “numerous incidents of entry of Iranian trucks into the part of Karabakh controlled by Russian peacekeepers have been established”.

The Armenian side faces serious economic problems, since 40% of the country’s trade turnover is carried out through Iran.

Tehran is actively discussing the issue with both Yerevan and Baku. But there is no final decision yet.

All the details – what is happening on the southern border of Armenia, how the country’s government intends to ensure the uninterrupted movement of Iranian trucks and expert opinion on the matter below.

• Customs payments for Iranian trucks: what is happening at the Armenian-Azerbaijani border
  
• Echo of the second Karabakh war: why Baku got the opportunity to blockade the south of Armenia

Tensions on the Goris-Kapan interstate road

After the fall of 2020, that is, the end of the second Karabakh war, the 21-kilometer section of the road between the Armenian cities of Goris and Kapan came under the control of Azerbaijan. The security of this section of the road has been ensured by Russian border guards since December.

The tension here began on August 25, 2021, when the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan blocked the road on the Karmrakar-Shurnukh-Goris-Vorotan section and opened it only two days later. Some Armenian villages became isolated and the Russian peacekeepers had to provide them with food during these days.

On September 12, the road closed again – this time to Iranian trucks. Near the village of Vorotan, the Azerbaijani side established posts, armed masked officers began to check the documents of the drivers of Iranian trucks and transported cargo, as well as demand the payment of customs duties.

On September 15, Azerbaijani police arrested two Iranian drivers under the pretext of “illegal entry into the territory of Azerbaijan”. Until now, nothing has been reported about their fate.

Is there a way out of the crisis?

The situation on the Goris-Kapan road has returned to the agenda the issue of building alternative roads in the southern border region of Armenia – Syunik, which was discussed at the beginning of the year.

“We will start construction as soon as the weather conditions permit us”, said Minister of Territorial Administration Suren Papikyan, who now holds the post of Deputy Prime Minister, in February.

To bypass the Kapan-Goris highway, the government decided to build an alternative Kapan-Tatev road. Reconstruction of the Tatev-Aghvani section of this road (43 km long) began at the end of July.

“Tatev-Aghvani will be completed this year, all unpaved roads will be ready by winter, but the asphalt road, of course, will only be in the spring”, Deputy Prime Minister Suren Papikyan told Azatutyun (Freedom) radio.

The government plans to complete the construction of the Tatev-Aghvani road by the end of November.

Tatev-Aghvani or Tatev-Ltsen?

Along with the construction of the Tatev-Aghvani road, the Armenian government initiated the construction of another bypass route – Tatev-Ltsen. But the second highway will only be ready in the next year, 2022.

Moreover, the difference between the two bypass routes, which should become an alternative to the Goris-Kapan interstate road, is that Tatev-Aghvani is difficult to pass for trucks with trailers.

It turns out that many Iranian trucks will have to wait several more months or even a year before they can transport goods to Armenia without paying customs duties to Azerbaijan.

“Tehran is closely following the development of events”

The situation caused tension in Tehran’s relations with Baku, and the problem was discussed with the Armenian authorities.

In response to a request from the Armenian CivilNet publication, the Iranian Embassy in Armenia stated that Tehran is closely following developments in the region in recent months, in particular, the situation with Iranian cargo trucks:

“Development of relations with friendly Armenia and removal of road obstacles and problems are on the agenda”.

The situation on the Goris-Kapan road was discussed during the summit meetings. On September 17, in Dushanbe, the heads of Armenia and Iran discussed, among others, “the issue of organization of uninterrupted cargo transportation between the two countries”.

According to Iranian news agencies, President Raisi announced that an Armenian-Iranian working group would be set up for “energy exchange, transportation and joint production”. According to the same source, Nikol Pashinyan welcomed “Iran’s initiatives to resolve existing problems”.

On September 24, in New York, within the framework of the 76th session of the UN General Assembly, a meeting was held between the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Iran, who discussed “challenges for transport transit from Iran to Armenia and ways to overcome them”.

Iranian Ambassador Abbas Badakhshan Zokhuri periodically discusses the situation with the Armenian authorities. In recent weeks, he met with the Speaker of the Parliament, the Secretary of the Security Council, the Foreign Minister and one of the Deputy Prime Ministers. It is reported that during these meetings, the deepening of economic cooperation and the prospect of increasing trade turnover to $ 1 billion a year were discussed.

Expert opinion

What steps will Iran take?

According to Iran expert Garik Misakian, Iran is inclined to restore uninterrupted communication as soon as possible. In his opinion, judging by the statements of the Armenian and Iranian sides, one can assume that Iran is ready “to support the construction of an alternative road or take part in it”.

“Iran is not inclined towards the final closure of the Goris-Kapan road. In connection with this situation, many negative statements have already been made in Iran, even at the highest level”, says Garik Misakian, citing the arrest of two Iranian drivers as an example.

However, despite the tension that has arisen in the Iranian-Azerbaijani relations, according to Misakian, Tehran will not take any steps until the Armenian side has yet expressed its official position:

“The Iranian side has neither the tools nor the desire to interfere in this issue or solve it in favor of Armenia”.

Garik Misakian believes that Iran will first do what proceeds from its national interests, security and economic issues and will wait for Armenia’s position:

“If the Armenian side agrees to transfer control over this section of the road to Azerbaijan, Iran will accept it. If the Armenian side starts any process of returning or joint exploitation of this section of the road, Iran will adjust its policy accordingly, since it cannot interfere in the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. At this stage, it seems that Iran supports the Armenian side”.

Armenia’s losses

Collecting customs duties on Iranian truck drivers on the Goris-Kapan interstate road could have serious economic consequences for Armenia. For three weeks now, economists and the opposition have been talking about the need for the country’s authorities to resolve this issue.

However, the government does not share their concerns. In particular, Minister of Economy Vahan Kerobyan told reporters that he does not see any big problems:

“Yes, there is an obstacle that I am sure we will overcome in the near future”.

Economist Suren Parsyan believes that Armenia’s foreign trade turnover with Iran is about $410 million a year.

Armenia exports $ 90 million (electricity, which accounts for 80% of exports, meat products and timber) and imports $ 320 million from Iran (gas, oil products, fertilizers, construction materials). And all transportation is carried out by Iranian trucks.

“Armenia very often uses the territory of Iran both for import and export of goods to Arab and Asian countries. If the road issue is not resolved, Armenian goods will become more expensive and lose their competitiveness in the international market, be it the UAE, Iran, China, India or any other country”, says the economist.

Suren Parsyan considers it necessary to reduce risks, otherwise the current situation will affect the economic activity of Armenia in general and the volume of exports – with all the ensuing consequences.

According to the economist, the Tatev-Aghvani road under construction is a temporary solution: even if the road is widened, it will be difficult to pass and ensure the same volume of cargo transportation:

“The only long-term solution will be the construction of the Sisian-Agarak road within the framework of the North-South project”.

With the North-South highway, Armenia can become a transit country. From the north, it will connect Armenia with Georgia and provide access to the Black Sea and European countries. From the south, the highway will connect the country with Iran. The road began to be built in 2012, it was planned to put it into operation in 2019, but so far only about 20% have been built. In 2021, the European Union announced that it will provide 600 million euros for the construction of the most difficult sections of the highway.

Suren Parsyan notes that, according to the draft state budget, the work will begin at the end of next year. Moreover, first it will be necessary to carry out design work, and the construction itself may take another 2-3 years.

https://jam-news.net/tehran-is-watching-closely-what-will-happen-to-cargo-transportation-from-iran-to-armenia/

[Yervant1]

1. Columnists

FATAH: Turkey's ambitions clash with Iranian sovereignty

Author of the article:

Tarek Fatah

Publishing date:

Oct 06, 2021 • 15 hours ago • 3 minute read • Join the conversation

Iranians find themselves isolated and under threat of having their land trade links with Europe cut off. PHOTO BY PETER HERMES FURIAN /iStock / Getty Images

 

 

Article content

While the rest of the world is distracted by the news of the Taliban pushing Afghanistan back into the dark ages, another conflict is brewing elsewhere in the Muslim world, this time pitting Turkey’s Ottoman Caliphate dreams against rival Iran.

 

A possible flare-up might occur as Turkey strengthens its ties with Azerbaijan in what is being referred to as the “Council of Turks,” a group that includes Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, stretching east towards the region where China meets the Islamic republics to its west.

And now with the Taliban controlling Afghanistan and Pakistan’s subservience to all things Turkish, the Iranians find themselves isolated and under threat of having their land trade links with Europe cut off.

The conflict lines were drawn out during the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020 when troops from Turkey, Pakistan and remnants of Syrian ISIS were deployed alongside Azeri forces to wrest control of Nagorno Karabakh from Armenia.

An emboldened Azerbaijan has made attempts to cut off all land trade routes from Iran towards Europe by imposing tariffs at border crossings and detaining Iranian trucks and their drivers.

On Sept. 24, the simmering tensions went public when Iranian lawmaker Fada Hossein Maleki, who is a member of the Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee warned Azerbaijan of obstructing transit of goods between Iran and Armenia and objected to a joint military exercise at the Iranian border by the military forces of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Pakistan.

Pakistan’s military that has been involved in the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan, has been providing military manpower to boost Azerbaijan’s strength, most likely as mercenaries for hire by Turkey.

The Iranian parliamentarian warned that Iran closely monitors developments beyond its northern borders and is sensitive to suspicious moves close to its borders.

He added that Iran did not expect such a military exercise regardless of why it was carried out. He added that Iran also expects Turkey and Pakistan to seek Tehran’s views before arranging such joint exercises.

Maleki said, “Regardless of the label of the joint military exercise, security circles all over the world will perceive it differently.” Meanwhile, he warned Baku to be wary of suspicious moves as belligerent countries such as Israel are planning to disrupt the security balance of the region. He told Baku: “Not to play in the hands of regional troublemakers, as most of those troubles would be targeted at Baku.”

Article content

There have been several reports in recent days that Azeri forces, which have entered Armenian territory north of the Iranian border after last year’s war with Armenia, have been stopping and preventing free movement of Iranian vehicles. The Iranian ambassador in Baku has complained to Azerbaijani officials. Maleki raising the issue said, “Armenia is an independent country and Iran wishes to have trade relations with Yerevan.”

In this equation of Turkey vs. Iran and Azerbaijan vs. Armenia, Israel is also playing an unethical game by arming the Azeris in an undeclared bizarre alliance with Pakistan.

Inside Israel, there is little unanimity on Israel’s involvement in the conflict. A column in the Jerusalem Post raised a deeply ethical and moral question. Harut Sassounian wrote that the Jewish State needs to stop arming Azerbaijan. In a controversial remark, he wrote: “It is disgraceful that descendants of the Holocaust are arming Azerbaijan to kill survivors of the Armenian Genocide for a fistful of dollars!”

Israel simply cannot turn its focus beyond Iran. This can turn into an obsession that totally blinds Jerusalem from viewing the real threat – Pakistani nukes targeting Israeli cities. While Iran may be pressured to not enrich uranium, Pakistan’s nuclear missiles may ostensibly aim at rival India, but the truth is they are aimed at Tel Aviv, not New Delhi.

So when Europe and Asia collide near the Caspian Sea, the catastrophe may not occur at the hands of Iran, but the much-loved ally of America, Pakistan – currently hired as mercenaries for Turkey.

Edited October 7, 2021 by Yervant1

[Yervant1]

Oct 6 2021

“Iranian troops will enter Armenia and liquidate the Zionist uprising”

by The Frontier Post

Written by The Frontier Post

Yuri Sokolov

The situation in the South Caucasus is unstable again. On the border with Iran and Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan have begun a new stage of the exercises “Indestructible Brotherhood-2021”. Iran, in turn, is carrying out maneuvers on the border with Azerbaijan. The parties exchange unfriendly statements and link them with the results of the war in Karabakh. Gazeta.ru understood the reasons for this tension and how it would affect Moscow’s interests.

“Conquerors of Khaybar” vs. “Brotherhood-2021”

The first anniversary of the second Karabakh war gave rise to new contradictions in Transcaucasia. They manifested themselves in early September, when Azerbaijan began to hinder the supply of Iranian fuel to Nagorno-Karabakh. The Azerbaijanis stopped freight transport from Iran, which was heading to Stepanakert, and charged a fare from each driver.

In response, the Iranian armed forces announced the Conquerors of Khaybar exercises in the northwest of the country. It is important to note that Tehran is conducting large-scale exercises on the border with Azerbaijan for the first time in 30 years.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made a loud statement. “T-hose who suffer from illusions will soon be slapped in the face. The countries of the region should not allow foreign armies to interfere, ”he said.

The Iranian government newspaper Vatan-e-Emrooz specified the official position of the state in a very peculiar way: “Ankara and Baku know that in case of a change in borders, Iranian troops will immediately enter the territory of Armenia and liquidate the Zionist uprising.”

Iran, apparently, hints at close military-technical cooperation between Azerbaijan and Israel during last year’s war – in particular on drones. Although in Tel Aviv it was repeatedly emphasized that this interaction did not at all mean acceptance of one or another side of the conflict, but was explained only by commercial interests.

“Now Iranian propaganda is actively using the Israeli map for an internal audience, talks about the presence of the Israeli military in Azerbaijan and symbolically calls its teachings“ Conquerors of Kha-ybar ”in honor of the Battle of Khaibar in 629, where the troops of the Prophet Muhammad defeated the Jews. However, in reality, the Iranians are not worried about Tel Aviv, but Ankara,” – Isa Javadov, a historian and orientalist, told Gazeta.Ru.

Azerbaijan and its ally Turkey announced their intention to conduct joint maneuvers as part of the next stage of “Indes-tructible Brotherhood-202-1” on October 5-8 on the border with Armenia and Iran, in the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic.

At the same time, the parties focused on the fact that they are talking about “measures for demining and training in the territories liberated from the Armenian occupation.” In Yerevan, it seems, they took the hint. In any case, on October 4, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan arrived in Tehran for talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian.

Zangezur Corridor of Discord

Regardless of the reasons that prompted Iran to defend its position at the diplomatic and military level, it is difficult not to notice that Tehran’s policy has changed markedly with the coming to power of President Ibrahim Raisi in the summer of 2021.

“The situation is very alarming, since the actions of the new president are rather unconstructive and clearly not peaceful. I hardly imagine that ex-Pres-ident Rouhani would use escalation to advance his goals, as Raisi does, ”says Stanislav Pritchin, senior researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies, IMEMO RAN .However, according to t-he expert, it will be difficult for Tehran to change the balance of power in the region.

“The ability of Baku to influence the Iranian-Armenian trade by blocking the Goris-Kapan highway was only a trigger for the accumulating discontent of Iran. In the long term, Iran fears the opening of the Zangezur corridor, which will connect Azerbaijan and Turkey by land and will be able to attract the Azerbaijani-Turkish military presence on the border of Iran and Armenia under various pretexts, ”Javadov said.

Thus, the transit of Iranian products and energy resources through Armenia to other regions will be jeopardized, and the Cauca-sus will become another place where Ankara will seize the levers of pressure on Iran, the expert said.

“Tehran’s militant rhetoric adds even more complexity to the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh co-nflict, which is already filled with internal dynamics. But the most unpleasant thing for Moscow is that such rhetoric of Tehran gives Ankara even more opportunities to act as the patron of Baku and, accordingly, get even more reas-ons to increase its influence in Azerbaijan,” Pritchin said.

At the moment, the strategy of the Iranian leadership strongly contradicts the roadmap of the Karabakh settlement outlined by Russia. “By its demonstrative unwillingness to build the Zangezur corridor, Iran is actually torpedoing the achievements of Russian diplomacy in unblocking transport communications,” Isa Javadov explained.

Nevertheless, a positive outcome for the Iranian side under a military scenario is hardly visible, the expert said.

The armed formations of the Islamic Republic are now involved in Syria and Iraq, significant costs are spent on financing allied groups in Yemen and Lebanon, and instability in Afghanistan is a reason to keep troops in this direction. Another military conflict involving Iran will only exacerbate its international isolation and hit once again on the well-being of the population.

At the same time, neither Azerbaijan nor Turkey are also interested in the conflict, although they are pulling troops to the borders to demonstrate force. Russia, too, would be satisfied only with a balance of interests in the region, which excludes a military scenario. This probably explains the diplomatic work being carried out by the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry Sergei Lavrov . On October 6, the minister plans to hold talks with his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir Abdollahian.

https://thefrontierpost.com/iranian-troops-will-enter-armenia-and-liquidate-the-zionist-uprising/

[Yervant1]

Asbarez.com

Iran Closes Routes to Turkish Trucks

by Asbarez Staff

October 7, 2021

in Armenia, Artsakh, Featured Story, Latest, News, Top Stories

Cargo trucks on Turkey-Iran border

Iran reportedly has closed its roads to Turkish trucks, a Turkish official told the Russian RIA Novosti news agency. The news comes days after Azerbaijani media claimed that Iran had closed its airspace to Azerbaijani military planes flying to Nakhichevan.

Ozcan Alash, the head of the Turkish Association for the Development of Trade with Iran, told RIA Novosti that initially Tehran introduced a ban on the passage of Turkish trucks then Ankara reportedly made a decision to halt entry of Iranian trucks into Turkey as retaliation.

Baku and Tehran are in a diplomatic row over Azerbaijani forces stopping and taxing Iranian trucks en-route to Armenia on the Goris-Kapan Highway. Azerbaijani forces also arrested two Iranian truck drivers last month. The rift has escalated due to disparaging comments from official Baku, especially Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, who late last month accused Iran of holding military drills near Azerbaijan’s border as a response to the highway blockade issue.

Ankara has voiced support for Baku’s policies, especially its moves on the transport link between Iran and Armenia.

“The trade turnover between Iran and Turkey has been completely suspended due to the tense situation on the border between Iran and Azerbaijan,” Alash told RIA Novosti.

He clarified that the current situation could negatively impact trade between Turkey and Iran, which has already plummeted due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

https://asbarez.com/iran-closes-routes-to-turkish-trucks/?fbclid=IwAR3RivRrfe8a7V3vyxlWVrVLvHa7FHNVCRxuZCb4Dz-cckJhWKcivA6Kcdg

[Yervant1]

Tehran Times, Iran

Oct 8 2021

Iran, Armenia confer on establishing new transit routes

October 8, 2021 - 15:30

TEHRAN - Iranian Deputy Transport and Urban Development Minister Kheirollah Khademi has announced an agreement between Iran and Armenia for establishing new transit routes, IRNA reported.

“The alternative transit route for Iranian trucks in Armenia will be asphalted within the next month, and there will be no need to use the previous route which passes through Azerbaijan and requires us to pay tolls to the country,” Khademi said.

Earlier this week, Khademi visited Armenia on top of a delegation for discussing solutions to resolve recent transit problems posed by Azerbaijan along a 20-kilometer section of Armenia’s Goris-Kapan Road stretching from Norduz (in Iran) to Yerevan.

“Positive meetings were held with Armenian officials, including the Minister of Infrastructure and his deputies. In order to determine a new route for Iranian trucks; good solutions were also suggested with a specific schedule to solve the problem,” the official stated.

The northern part of the route (from Yerevan to Georgia) has been completed by Armenia and the southern part toward the Norduz border in Iran is remaining which the two sides agreed to launch the construction operations.

According to Khademi, Armenia's long-term plan is to build section 4 of this global corridor, and Iran has announced its readiness for its consultants and contractors to participate in the implementation of this project.

Azerbaijan is controlling and claiming ownership for approximately 20 km out of a 400 km route from Norduz to Yerevan. Since last month, Azerbaijan has imposed strict regulations on Iranian drivers which are posing major problems for them passing through the 20-kilometer section of Armenia’s Goris-Kapan Road including paying tolls levied by Azerbaijani border guards.

Iran and Armenia are seeking ways to bypass Azerbaijan for their traffic.

The Goris-Kapan Road is the main traffic route in southern Armenia. Since the end of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, a 20-kilometer section of the road has been under Azerbaijani control. But since early 2021 it has set up border guard posts on their sections of the road, thereby disrupting the traffic along the route.

EF/MA

https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/465760/Iran-Armenia-confer-on-establishing-new-transit-routes