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IRNA - Islamic Republic News Agency
Dec 4 2022
Answers to the questions of President Elham Aliyev

Tehran, IRNA - Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has recently raised some questions about the relations between Baku and Tehran.

He said that he has worked with three presidents in Iran, but [at the present time] the tension in the relations between the two countries has never been at this high level.

Mr Aliyev should be asked what are the reasons for the ups and downs of the relations between the two neighbors today.

The first question of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan was why the Iranian military exercise was held in the northwestern borders. We should ask him which country opened the chapter of the military exercise in the region? Didn't the Republic of Azerbaijan, along with Turkey and Pakistan, hold an exercise in Nakhichevan against the territorial integrity of the Republic of Armenia? This exercise was before the exercise of Conquest of Khyber by the Iranian armed forces.

Iran's exercise was held to support the territorial integrity of the countries in the region, while Azerbaijan's exercise violated Armenia's territorial integrity.

Why didn't Mr Aliyev complain about the exercise at that time?!

He not only did not complain, but also made historical claims about Armenian lands at the summit of Turkic-speaking countries, and said that he is trying to use the military route to open the Zangzor Corridor and annex a part of Armenia to his territory.

Such an action means effort to change the geopolitics of the region, threaten the geographical borders, violate the territorial integrity of a country and create new conflicts; and Iran cannot be indifferent to it.

Iran's political and military authorities announced that the exercises of the Islamic Republic of Iran are not a threat to any of its neighbors and are held with the aim of supporting the territorial integrity of the countries in the region.

Just as Iran supported the territorial integrity of the Republic of Azerbaijan in the issue of Karabakh and seven cities of this country, it also supports the territorial integrity of Armenia based on its principled policy; because the continuation of regional conflict and insecurity is a barrier to Iran's economic cooperation with its neighbors.

Elham Aliyev's other question, which was a clear interference in Iran's internal affairs, was raised while he expressed his opinion about the Azeri-speaking regions of Iran.

He knows very well that the ten million population of Azerbaijan are of Iranian descent and have been rudely separated from their homeland. Now, if such [wrong] historical claims are to be made, Iran will have a lot to say.

The Islamic Republic of Iran recognized the independence of the Republic of Azerbaijan and did not seek to make historical claims in order to maintain friendship with this country, and it is better for Mr Aliyev to leave the historical issues to the historians and allow the two countries to have good relations with each other.

The third question of Mr Aliyev was about Iran's relations with Armenia; the relations which he is trying to instill as an obstacle to his success in the war with Armenia.

The relations between Iran and Armenia are within the framework of Tehran's policy of strengthening relations with neighbors and are not against any other country.

The Islamic Republic of Iran takes its principled position in regional developments, and supports the territorial integrity of its neighbors including Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan; meanwhile, the country opposes change of geographical borders.

Unfortunately, the Republic of Azerbaijan, regardless of Iran's principled position, is seeking to strengthen relations with the occupying Zionist regime in an irrational reaction, while this action creates new problems for the Republic of Azerbaijan.

The Zionist regime of Israel is by no means a friend of Muslim states, especially Shia countries, and it is trying to establish its influence in Baku.

Israel is America's operational arm in the region, and America has always sought to create velvet revolutions in countries like the Republic of Azerbaijan, which even Mr Aliyev has acknowledged.

Relations between Iran and Armenia are logical and based on neighborhood policy, but the presence of the Zionist regime in Azerbaijan is accompanied by conspiracy which is also organized for Azerbaijan's neighbors

The future of Israel's relations with the Republic of Azerbaijan cannot serve the interests of this country.

We hope that Mr Aliyev, who is an experienced person, will accept the realities of the region and, avoid interfering in the affairs of the neighboring countries.

Mr Aliyev knows that Iran is seeking friendship with neighbors, has no intention of attacking any country and protects territorial integrity of the neighboring countries to follow its principled positions.

Iran advises the Republic of Azerbaijan to recognize the realities of the region and understand the Zionist regime's plots.

In practice, Iran proved that it carefully monitors the movements of its enemies, especially the occupying regime; and if necessary, Tehran puts preventive measures on its agenda.

1483**1583

https://en.irna.ir/news/84960572/Answers-to-the-questions-of-President-Elham-Aliyev

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Armenpress.am
Any step against Iran will receive decisive reaction – IRGC Brigadier General warns Azerbaijan

1101106.jpg 15:26, 5 January 2023

YEREVAN, JANUARY 5, ARMENPRESS. Brigadier General Alireza Taneh of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of the Iranian Armed Forces warned Azerbaijan that any step against Iran will receive a decisive reaction.

The IRGC general made the remarks at a speech on the occasion of the anniversary of Major-General Qasem Soleimani’s assassination.

“The Republic of Azerbaijan should not repeat the mistakes of Ukraine and Saddam [Hussein] and should know that the Islamic Republic of Iran, as a powerful country in the region, will never allow its borders to be endangered,” the Iranian general said, ISNA reports.

He added that any step aimed at jeopardizing Iran and its adjacent areas will receive a decisive response by the Iranian military.

 

 

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Iran will not accept any geopolitical changes of borders in region – Speaker of Parliament

1101311.jpg 09:55, 10 January 2023

YEREVAN, JANUARY 10, ARMENPRESS. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf reiterated Iran’s stance that Iran will not allow changes of borders in the Caucasian region, IRNA reports.

Qalibaf made the comments at a meeting with his Turkish counterpart Mustafa Sentop and Azeri counterpart Sahiba Gafarova.

“We can have good relations with each other in the regional and global arena, and the closer the regional countries are the better for the region. We must not allow extra-regional countries to interfere here. We will not accept any geopolitical change on the borders [in Caucasian region],” the Iranian Speaker of Parliament said.

 

 

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Armenpress.am
“Armenia’s security is Iran’s security” – reiterates Ambassador Abbas Badakhshan Zohouri

1102181.jpg 14:29, 20 January 2023

YEREVAN, JANUARY 20, ARMENPRESS. Ambassador of Iran to Armenia Abbas Badakhshan Zohouri has reiterated that Armenia’s security is Iran’s security.

The Iranian Ambassador made the remarks at a press briefing during a visit to Syunik Province, while speaking about the Iranian Foreign Minister’s earlier statement that he considers the security of Armenia and the region to be Iran’s security.

The Ambassador stated that Iran is engaged in the kind of policy with all its neighbors aimed at developing cooperation in all directions. “And Armenia is our neighbor, a friendly country. And we have that policy with Armenia as well. The Foreign Minister had also said that Armenia’s security is Iran’s security. And Iran’s position has always been that the independence and territorial integrity of countries must be respected, including of Armenia and everyone else, in line with international laws,” the Iranian Ambassador said.

He added that cooperation and ties in all directions between Armenia and Iran are developing.

 

 

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1 killed, 2 injured in attack on Azerbaijan embassy in Tehran

 

an. 27 (UPI) -- An armed attack on the Azerbaijan embassy in Iran killed the head of the security service and injured two guards, the Azerbaijani government said in a statement Friday.

 

 

The attack happened around 8:30 a.m. Azerbaijan time, the nation's ministry of foreign affairs said.

"The attacker destroyed the guard post with a Kalashnikov automatic weapon and killed the head of the security service," the Azerbaijani statement said. "Two security guards of the embassy were also injured while preventing the attack. Their condition is satisfactory."

Azerbaijan President Ilham Allyev condemned the attack on Twitter.

"I fiercely condemn the terrorist attack perpetrated today against our embassy in Tehran today," he wrote. "I convey my deepest condolences to the family and loved ones of First Lieutenant Orkhan Rizvan oglu Asgarov, who lost his life defending the embassy and staff."

Allyev said that terror against diplomatic missions is unacceptable and demanded that the attack be swiftly investigated "and the terrorists punished."

An investigation is underway.

Local police arrested a suspect, the BBC reported.

Tehran police chief General Hossein Rahimi told Iranian state-owned news the attack may have been over "personal issues."

He said the attacker is reportedly an Azeri citizen who claims his wife has been held at the embassy for nine months. Rahimi said the man had been waiting outside the embassy before using his car to hit a diplomatic vehicle and then started firing with an AK-47 rifle.

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Armenpress.am
Azerbaijan evacuates embassy staffers from Tehran after deadly attack

1102705.jpg 13:23, 27 January 2023

YEREVAN, JANUARY 27, ARMENPRESS. Azerbaijan will soon evacuate the staffers of its embassy in Tehran following the deadly shooting, the Azerbaijani foreign ministry press service director Aykhan Hajizada announced.

One person was killed and two others wounded after an assailant opened fire at the embassy of the Republic of Azerbaijan in Tehran on Friday morning.

Azeri media reports earlier said the person who died in the shooting was the security chief of the embassy building.

According to Daily Sabah news outlet, the gunman was armed with a Kalashnikov assault rifle.

The suspected gunman of the shooting in the Azeri embassy in Tehran has been taken into custody by Iranian police, Tehran’s Police General Hossein Rahimi told the Iranian Tasnim news agency.

During the initial interrogation process, the assailant has cited “personal and family problems” as the motive behind the shooting attack, the police chief told Tasnim.

 

 

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How in hell this incident has anything to do with Armenians? This shows how much hatred they have, starting with their clerics!

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Armenia - Jan 31 2023
Top Azerbaijani cleric: Now we know Iran is not our brother, it is Armenia’s brother
305194.jpg
January 31, 2023 - 12:30 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net - Grand Mufti of the Caucasus Allahshukur *****zade has slammed Iran for being “the brother of Armenia.”

*****zade made the remarks when expressing condolences over the attack on Baku’s embassy in Tahran.

“We brought a shahid from Iran, which we considered fraternal. Now we know that they are not our brothers, they are the brothers of Armenia,” the cleric said, although it is unclear why he would reference Armenia in his remarks.

Azerbaijani-Iranian relations have been strained over the past two years. The situation worsened in recent months when Iran held two large-scale drills near the border with Azerbaijan. Iran has also opposed the opening of a “corridor” through Armenia, which Azerbaijan has been demanding since the end of the 2020 war in Nagorno Karabakh.
https://www.panarmenian.net/eng/news/305194/Top_Azerbaijani_cleric_Now_we_know_Iran_is_not_our_brother_it_is_Armenias_brother

 

 

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Jan 31 2023
Turkey rises, Russia fades as Iran and Azerbaijan clash over Armenia
Conflict is looming once again between Armenia and Azerbaijan as regional powers maneuver in the Caucasus.

January 31, 2023

SYUNIK, Armenia — A small hotel in Goris, a sleepy tourist resort in the Syunik region in southern Armenia, seems an unlikely backdrop for geopolitical maneuvers between Western powers, Turkey, Russia and Iran. But that is what the Hotel Mirhav, a trio of rustic cottages filled with antique kilims and copperware, has become amid fears of renewed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan from which Iran could emerge the biggest loser.

Numerous families have been sheltering here since Dec. 12, when Azerbaijan effectively cut off access to their native Nagorno-Karabakh, letting a group of self-described Azerbaijani “eco-activists” with no history of environmental advocacy barge through Russian peacekeepers to block the sole road linking the disputed enclave to Armenia.

The Armenian-majority region lies within Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized borders but has governed itself under the name of the Republic of Artsakh since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

As regional powers butt heads, a full-blown humanitarian crisis is unfolding, with baby formula, medicines and other vital supplies growing scarcer by the day. Schools have been shuttered and Nagorno-Karabakh’s 120,000 inhabitants put on ration cards as Azerbaijan continues to disrupt gas and electricity supplies amid sub-zero temperatures. Armenia’s leaders accuse Azerbaijan of seeking to ethnically cleanse Nagorno-Karabakh by starving the local population and forcing it to leave.

Azerbaijan’s strongman President Ilham Aliyev hinted as much in a Jan. 10 TV interview, saying, “Conditions will be created for those who want to live [in Nagorno-Karabakh] under the flag of Azerbaijan. Like the citizens of Azerbaijan, their rights and security will be ensured.

“For whoever does not want to become our citizen, the road is not closed, but open. They can leave. They can go on their own, or they can ride with [Russian] peacekeepers, or they can go by bus. The road [to Armenia] is open.”

Rebukes from the European Union and stiffer ones from the United States have had little impact so far as the siege entered its 51st day today. The International Crisis Group ranked Nagorno-Karabakh second after Ukraine among the top 10 conflicts to watch in 2023, warning in a report this week that “another war on Europe’s Eastern flank is real.”

“I am stuck here with my two children. It’s an intolerable situation and I have no idea when it will end,” said Inna Gasparyan, whose husband and two other children are marooned in the capital Stepanakert. “The kids need vegetables. The shops are empty. What more can I tell you?” she said, her voice trailing off in despair.

At a nearby table in the Mirhav’s dining room, a clutch of men and women confer in hushed tones, studiously avoiding eye contact with fellow guests. They are members of the European Union’s 40-member civilian observer mission that is headquartered at the Mirhav. They were deployed to monitor a 250-kilometer (155-mile) cease-fire line after Azerbaijani troops crossed the border on Sept. 12 and captured a set of strategic heights inside Armenia. By the time Russia brokered a cease-fire two days later, as many as 300 servicemen were killed on both sides, marking the gravest escalation since Armenia and Azerbaijan went to war for a second time over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020.

With Turkey and Israel’s backing, Azerbaijan emerged victorious, snapping back all of its land occupied by Armenia in a previous conflict that erupted as the USSR disintegrated and shortening Iran’s de facto border with Armenia. It also took around a third of Nagorno-Karabakh. It is now thought to control roughly 200 square kilometers (124 square miles) of Armenian territory. For a newly muscular Baku, that wasn’t enough.

Catastrophe for Iran

The deeper worry is that seizing on Russia’s Ukraine woes and Iran’s domestic unrest, Aliyev will go for a bigger prize: a land and rail corridor that would link Azerbaijan via Armenia’s southernmost province Syunik to its largest exclave Nakhichevan and on to Turkey. It would separate Iran from Armenia, its sole Christian neighbor and a vital stepping stone to Western markets. Armenia, in turn, would be effectively deprived of potential military support from its friendliest neighbor, Iran.

The Zangezour corridor “would be a geopolitical catastrophe for Iran,” said Hamidreza Azizi, an Iranian visiting fellow at the Berlin-based think tank SWP.

Vahan Kostanyan, special adviser to Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, told Al-Monitor in an exclusive interview, “Azerbaijan has three objectives: the ethnic cleansing of Nagorno-Karabakh, to provoke large-scale military tension in the region and finally to push the Armenian side to give an extra-territorial corridor.” Kostanyan added, “Iran is an important partner. The border with Iran is of utmost importance to us. We have two closed borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan, thus Iran and Georgia are our only gates to the outside world.”

Azerbaijan has angrily dismissed Armenia’s pleas for international action as propaganda, saying that the Red Cross and Russian peacekeepers are assuring the flow of food and medicine into Nagorno-Karabakh.

On Jan. 23, the EU announced that it was establishing what it called a Common Security and Defense Policy mission in Armenia. As many as 200 civilian observers are to be deployed to ensure that cease-fire lines are holding along the Azerbaijani border. As Schahen Zaytounchian, a retired Iranian-Armenian neurosurgeon who runs the Mirhav hotel, opined, “The presence of observers gives me a little bit of security. Only an idiot can make some aggression.”

But their mandate does not extend to Nagorno-Karabakh, for which it would need Azerbaijan’s consent. That is unlikely to be forthcoming. Russia’s Foreign Ministry lambasted the EU move as a combined effort with the United States “to gain a foothold at all costs.” Critics say the EU is seeking to make amends for a gas deal it signed in July with Azerbaijan to double gas imports in order to make up for the loss of Russian gas as a result of Ukraine-linked sanctions. The deal will have only further emboldened Baku.

Iran has always balked at the injection of more foreign actors in its backyard. However, Azizi contended, “The Europeans being there could balance Azerbaijan and that’s in line with Iran’s interests,” even though relations between the Islamic Republic and the EU are at an all-time low.

Aliyev has made no secret of his designs on the so-called “Zangezour corridor,” calling it a “historical necessity” and asserting repeatedly that it will “definitely be opened whether Armenia wants it or not.” Iran has called any attempt to alter its borders a "red line."

Tensions between the Shia-majority neighbors are escalating beyond Armenia. On Jan. 27, a gunman burst into the Azerbaijani Embassy in Tehran, killing the head of security at the mission and wounding two guards.

“We demand that this terrorist act be investigated and the terrorists be punished,” Aliyev said in a statement. Iranian authorities said the assailant, an Iranian man, had no political motives and that it was a “family affair.” But Azerbaijan isn’t buying it. Baku said it was shutting down its mission and withdrawing all its diplomatic staff from Tehran pending the results of thorough investigations. (The Azerbaijani consulate in Tabriz will continue to function.) Video footage of the attack showing an Iranian security guard sitting inert as the perpetrator armed with a rifle entered the embassy has inflamed public sentiments in Azerbaijan.

An Israeli listening post

Some Azerbaijani officials believe that Iran staged the assault to punish Baku for sending its first ambassador to Israel this month after three decades of ties. Until now, Baku has held back so as to maintain the support of Arab countries over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, explained Zaur Shiriyev, a South Caucasus analyst for the International Crisis Group. Yet ties between Azerbaijan and the Jewish state have been flourishing for long years.

Benyamin Poghosyan, a Yerevan-based pundit said, “Azerbaijan is becoming an Israeli outpost in the region. There are Israeli advisers permanently based in Baku,” he told Al-Monitor.

The presence of Israeli military officials is frequently rumored yet impossible to prove. It’s common knowledge, however, that Azerbaijan, which is among Israel’s top suppliers of oil, has acquired large amounts of weapons from the Jewish state. Open-source intelligence showed cargo planes ferrying them throughout the 2020 war. Nor is it a secret that Israel has long used Azerbaijan to spy on Iran.

In a bid to draw Baku to its side, Iran supported Azerbaijan, at least rhetorically, at the start of the 2020 war, not reckoning just how far Russia would allow it to advance. In a similar miscalculation, Armenia decided in 2020 to open its first diplomatic mission in Tel Aviv only for Israel to go all in with Azerbaijan.

Today, Azerbaijani security forces raided several media organizations in Baku accused of being on Tehran’s payroll. Seven people described as being part of an “Iranian spy network” were detained.

Since 2021, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has conducted large-scale military drills, most recently in October along its frontier with Azerbaijan. The latest, “Mighty Iran,” included setting up pontoon bridges and crossing the Aras River, which separates the two countries.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian told the state-run IRNA news agency in an Oct. 19 interview, “Iran will not permit the blockage of its connection route with Armenia, and in order to secure that objective the Islamic Republic of Iran also launched a war game in that region."

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned in an Oct. 3 tweet, “Those who dig a hole for their brothers will be the first to fall into it.”

On Jan. 20, Iran’s ambassador to Armenia paid a visit to his country’s newly established mission in Syunik’s administrative capital, Kapan. “Armenia’s security is Iran’s security,” Abbas Badakhshan Zohouri told the Kapan news corps. A giant Iranian flag hoisted above the drab consulate is meant to telegraph Iranian heft to Azerbaijani forces lurking in the nearby mountains.

Iran’s hawkishness is music to Armenian ears. Kostanyan, the ministerial adviser, told Al-Monitor, “We had intelligence that larger attacks were being prepared by Azerbaijan when it attacked Armenia last September. Iranian actions and statements helped to stop a further deterioration of that situation.” Others credit the United States for deterring Baku.

In the small town of Meghri on the Iranian border, restauranteur Asya Sarkisyan said business has remained thin since the 2020 war. With the threat of war growing, Sarkisyan said, “I don’t want to leave but I need to think about my children," adding, “Here in Meghri our hope is in Iran. But they will act in their own interest, of course.”

Syunik has strong cultural and historical links to Iran dating back to the early 16th century, when much of present-day Armenia was under Persian rule. The traces are seen in the wall paintings rendered in exquisite Persian miniature style in the 17th century St Hovhannes church in Meghri.

Vardan Voskanyan, who runs the Iran department at Yerevan State University’s Faculty of Oriental Studies, told Al-Monitor, “We took a lot of things from Iran. Armenia is a museum of ancient medieval Iran.”

“Iran is the only country that supported us economically when Turkey sealed the border,” Voskanyan recalled. “You can’t trust the West. They will only help Armenia when it becomes another Ukraine for Russia. They will help us only if Armenia becomes anti-Iran.”

IMG_1796.jpg?itok=MtEmaZMx

Persian influence is palpable in the 17th Century Surp Hovhannes Church in the Armenian town of Meghri on the Iranian border Jan. 20, 2023. (Amberin Zaman/Al-Monitor)

In November, Armenia and Iran inked an accord to double the amount of natural gas that Iran sells to its neighbor in exchange for the latter’s electricity during a visit by Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to Tehran.

Two-way trade shot up by 43% last year and Yerevan remains a popular watering hole for Iranians in search of booze and carnal pleasures. On a recent night, a bouncer at the Manoto club, a basement dive in central Yerevan, expressed surprise when this reporter and an Armenian colleague sought entry, saying, “It’s all Persians in there, brother.” Sure enough, wisps of Farsi wafted above the din of disco music as bearded men of all ages gawked at exotic dancers writhing under the venue’s purple strobe lights.

Lonely democrat

Pashinyan, who led his country’s Velvet Revolution in 2018, ending decades of corrupt and repressive rule, has to tread carefully. He needs Western support, particularly that of Washington, as in the words of a senior Armenian official speaking not for attribution, “The United States is more interested in safeguarding a democratic Armenia than the EU.”

In September, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi led a delegation to Yerevan just days after the Azerbaijani incursion.

But Pashinyan is also in desperate need to rebuild his battered army. Russia is nominally Armenia’s top supplier, but it has yet to deliver billions of dollars’ worth of arms paid for by Yerevan, probably because they are being diverted to Ukraine. India is the only other country selling Armenia weapons, mainly because its arch enemy, Pakistan is a staunch backer of Azerbaijan. Iran would be a natural source for military kit. Yet the slightest hint of such deliveries from Tehran could trigger Western sanctions at a time when this country of 3 million is more vulnerable than it’s ever been since declaring its independence from Moscow in 1991.

Acquiring Iranian weapons “is not on our agenda,” Kostanyan, the ministerial adviser, told Al-Monitor.

Azerbaijan, meanwhile, is showing no such restraint. Mimicking Iran, it’s held several military exercises in the border region, most recently in December — a joint maneuver with Turkey called “Fraternal Fist.”

Ankara drones and military advisers helped cinch Baku’s 2020 victory and it's an advocate of a “Zangezour corridor” that would extend all the way to China. This would scrap its current dependence on Iran to reach Central Asian markets.

A cease-fire agreement brokered by Russia on Nov. 9, 2020, for Nagorno-Karabakh says that “all economic and transport connections in the region shall be unblocked.” Under its vaguely worded terms, Armenia is supposed to guarantee unobstructed passage through them and Russian border guards will oversee it all. However, Baku wants to be able to use the proposed artery through Syunik without being subjected to any Armenian customs controls. Armenia squarely rejects the idea, saying this would be a breach of its sovereignty. What if Azerbaijan, presumably with Turkish backing, were to up the ante and swallow a chunk of Syunik in order to attach Nakhichevan to its mainland?

The question weighs heavily in Akner, a village just northwest of Goris that was struck by Azerbaijani rockets on Sept. 13 during last year’s “two-day war.” One blew through the roof of the house shared by furniture salesman Edgar Salbuntz, his wife Ramela and his parents, Arevik and Kim. “Thanks to God we were at the neighbor's when it landed, otherwise we would all be dead,” Salbuntz told Al-Monitor as he pulled out what he said was a fragment of a Russian-made Grad rocket from a chest of drawers.

Like many in this mountainous region dotted with ancient monasteries and copper mines, he calls Syunik Armenia’s “backbone.” “If it’s gone, there will be no Armenia,” Salbuntz asserted. "But who can stand in Azerbaijan’s way?” he mused. On paper, it's Russia and her peacekeepers.

Armenia is a member of the Kremlin-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CTSO), comprising six former Soviet states. When one is attacked the rest are meant to ride to its defense. Misgivings about Russian support began to emerge when Moscow sat on its hands as Armenian forces were decimated in the early days of the 2020 war. The feelings grew when Moscow failed to intervene against Azerbaijan in the September flareup.

Olesya Vartanyan, the International Crisis Group’s senior South Caucasus analyst, told Al-Monitor, “Since the Ukraine war, we are seeing an even more assertive Azerbaijan. Russian containment and deterrence has all but disappeared.”

No Turkish delights

Turkey stepped into the vacuum on Azerbaijan’s side even as it sought to normalize relations with Yerevan. For Pashinyan, peace with Turkey was meant to fend off further attacks by Azerbaijan. So far he’s got neither.

After four rounds of face-to-face talks, diplomatic relations have yet to be established though there are hopes on the Armenian side that Turkey will allow its foreign minister to travel overland to a diplomacy forum planned for March in the Turkish seaside resort of Antalya.

Land borders between the two countries remain closed save for nationals of other countries, a first baby step decided last year. A second was to start cargo flights. Richard Giragosian, founding director of the Regional Studies Center, an independent think tank in Yerevan, told Al-Monitor, “Air cargo is BS. There is no demand."

An Armenian source with close knowledge of the talks acknowledged, “Rapprochement with Turkey has yielded nothing. Turkey has entrenched itself further in the Caucasus. Through these negotiations it’s become more of a player.” The source, who sought anonymity in order to speak freely, observed that rather than use its growing influence to de-escalate tensions between the sides, “Turkey is encouraging Azerbaijan in its maximalist demands.”

Gohar Iskandaryan, an Armenian academic who specializes in Iran, said, “For the last two centuries Russia had the upper hand. Turkey is rising in the Caucasus.”

Yerevan-based analyst Tigran Grigorian concurred, saying, “Russia has become overly dependent on Turkey and Azerbaijan since the start of the war.”

The reality is far murkier. Laurence Broers, an associate fellow at Chatham House, said, “The geopolitics of the Caucasus is still very much in flux. In 2020, it looked as though Russia and Turkey had sealed the region’s fate by ejecting the Western power and ‘regionalizing’ the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process.” Broers told Al-Monitor, “But Russia’s catastrophic invasion of Ukraine has shattered its standing as the security patron of the South Caucasus and driving a new strategic intimacy between Moscow and Iran.”

In Ukraine, the Kremlin’s discredited war machine increasingly relies on Iranian drones. Turkey’s fabled Bayraktars proved crucial in the defense of Kyiv. In the South Caucasus, much as in Syria, Russia, Iran and Turkey’s goals are both competitive and complementary.

“I think we’ll continue to see a very dynamic situation among these powers, almost a kind of ‘hyper polarity,’ with no single hegemon in control,” Broers said.

IMG_1727.jpg?itok=cEberlqV

With its mountain vistas and ancient churches, Armenia’s Syunik region is a hiker’s paradise. Image taken Jan. 19, 2023. (Amberin Zaman/Al-Monitor)

From Russia with no love

For Armenia’s Pashinyan, Russian peacekeepers’ inability — or Moscow's unwillingness, many say — to fend off the Azerbaijani “protesters” blocking the Lachin corridor appears to have been the last straw. On Jan. 10, Pashinyan said he had informed the CTSO that Armenia would no longer be hosting the bloc’s annual peacekeeping drill. “Their lack of response means that Russia’s military presence in Armenia not only does not guarantee Armenia’s security, but on the contrary, creates threats to Armenia’s security,” Pashinyan groused.

Indeed, there are many, including senior Armenian officials, who believe that Russia favors Aliyev’s Zangezour corridor scheme as this would give Russia direct land access to Turkey and a further means to bust Western sanctions. Russian peacekeepers would control the route and Armenian forces would notionally be deployed with them. But the prevailing consensus is that the Russians can’t be trusted and anti-Russian sentiments among ordinary Armenians are growing by the day. Dozens of protesters were detained in early January during an anti-Moscow rally outside Russia’s 102nd base in the city of Gyumri on the Turkish border. The crowd chanted slogans calling for Armenia to pull out of the CTSO and for Russian forces to leave.

“Moscow has made clear that it does not want to alienate Baku or its ally Ankara. From the high ground that they now control inside Armenia, Azerbaijani forces could sweep down to take more territory, which would cut off southern Armenia from the rest of the country and force Yerevan into more concessions. Some worry that if Baku grows frustrated with the pace of talks, it could well try its luck at exactly this manoeuvre,” the International Crisis Group commented in its new report.

On a recent afternoon in Goris, Russian peacekeepers stood outside their base smoking cigarettes, visibly bored. Others browsed the shelves of a richly stocked local supermarket before plumping for bananas and tangerines.

“When we ask them, ‘Why aren’t you doing anything to help us?’ they just stare blankly or say they were sent here for military service and don’t know what they are actually supposed to do,” said a shopkeeper who makes custom patches and other paraphernalia for the Russians. “Look,” he said, holding up a baseball cap in the colors of the Russian flag and embroidered with a giant “Z,” a symbol of support for the war on Ukraine. He declined to be identified by name.

Gevorg Mirzoyan, a construction worker in Akner who is helping Salbuntz repair his shattered home, agrees that Russia can no longer be counted upon. “I think Iran is a good ally,” he told Al-Monitor. Deepening discord between Iran and Azerbaijan is bolstering such sentiments across Syunik.

IMG_1703.jpg?itok=l3-AW6lt

Locals in Goris, Armenia, produce custom patches and other paraphernalia for Russian forces stationed there, Jan. 20, 2023. (Amberin Zaman/Al-Monitor)

In a further provocation, Aliyev has begun to play the ethnic card. Iran has a sizable Azeri population thought to equal 15-20% of its population. In a Nov. 25 address Aliyev asserted, "We had to conduct military exercises on the Iranian border to show that we are not afraid of them. We will do our best to protect the secular lifestyle of Azerbaijan and Azerbaijanis around the world, including Azerbaijanis in Iran. They are part of our people."

Aliyev went on, “There are schools that teach in Armenian in Iran, but there are no schools that teach in the Azerbaijani language. How can this be? If someone says that this is interference in internal affairs, we absolutely reject it. Azerbaijan's foreign policy is as plain as day. We did not and do not interfere in the internal affairs of any state."

The comments mark a big shift. Firdevs Robinson, former Caucasus editor for the BBC who closely monitors the region, told Al-Monitor. “Azerbaijani nationalists’ feelings of solidarity with Iran’s Azerbaijani ethnic minority and their hostility towards Iran for siding with Armenia are nothing new.” He went on, “What has been notable is the growing unfriendly rhetoric coming from Baku in recent months.”

The SWP’s Azizi believes that Azerbaijan’s efforts to sow separatism in Iran won’t have much of an effect. Azizi told Al-Monitor, “The ethnic factor in the recent Iranian protests have been quite marginal. Also, it's highly unlikely that Iranian Azeris would want to leave an authoritarian regime to join another one.”

Interviews with several Iranian-Azeri truck drivers parked along the road between Meghri and Goris suggested that Azizi may be right. Huseyin Ismaili, who has been carrying Iranian oil to Armenia for the past 15 years, told Al-Monitor, “Yes, it’s true that Azerbaijan is telling us to stand up for our culture and rights and all that. We hear this stuff on Azerbaijani and Turkish television channels.” He added, “They tell us we need freedom. We have enough freedom. Iran is good. Iran is beautiful. No thank you, I say.”

Still, Iran’s Azeri population would certainly react to armed confrontation with its ethnic kin across the border. “The only real option Tehran has, and is working on, is to return to its traditional policy of supporting Azerbaijan against Armenia,” Azizi said. “I cannot even rule out the possibility of Iran arming Armenia with drones and the like.”

Back in Yerevan, Iskandaryan, the Persophile academic, says she would welcome such a move.

“If we have to choose between annihilation as a nation or sanctions from America, I prefer the latter,” she said.

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/01/turkey-rises-russia-fades-iran-and-azerbaijan-clash-over-armenia

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MEHR News Agency, Iran
Feb 1 2023
4410646.jpg?ts=1675232015233

TEHRAN, Feb. 01 (MNA) – Deputy Prime Minister of Armenia Mher Grigoryan said that Iran is a friendly country and an important partner for Armenia, calling for holding regular interactions between Yerevan and Tehran.

Deputy Prime Minister of Armenia Mher Grigoryan and Vice President of Iran Masoud Mir Kazemi co-chaired the session of the monitoring commission of the course of agreements (steering committee) of the 17th session of the Armenian-Iranian Inter-Governmental Joint Commission in Tehran.

The prospects of developing trade-economic relations between the two countries, as well as opportunities for enhancing the existing cooperation in energy and transport, were discussed at the session, Grigoryan’s office said in a read-out.

Ideas were exchanged around creating favorable conditions for developing and enhancing trade-economic relations, including within the framework of the EEU.

A day before the session, Deputy PM Mher Grigoryan and Iranian Vice President Masoud Mir Kazemi held a meeting, Armen Press reported.

The deputy ministers of territorial administration and infrastructures, economy, and environment of Armenia participated in separate themed discussions as part of the commission’s meeting to outline the existing problems in the mutually-beneficial directions of the Armenian-Iranian cooperation and to implement joint actions for solving them.

At the end of the session, the Deputy PM said that Iran is a friendly country and an important partner for Armenia, and thanked the Iranian side for the warm hospitality and attached importance to holding regular discussions in this format. Deputy PM Grigoryan invited Vice President of Iran Masoud Mir Kazemi to visit Yerevan for holding the next such meeting.

Both sides said the governments will focus on solving the recorded issues.

MP/PR

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Feb 1 2023
Hawkish Iran helped stop larger Azerbaijani attacks says Armenia1120_Nagorno_Karabakh_Armenia_Azerbaijan
Armenian soldiers were outgunned in the 2020 war over Nagorno-Karabakh. / screengrab.
By bne IntelIiNews February 1, 2023

Iranian hawkishness helped to stop larger attacks when Azerbaijan launched a military assault on Armenia last September, according to Vahan Kostanyan, Armenia’s deputy foreign minister.

In an interview with Al-Monitor published as part of a January 31 article, Kostanyan said: “We had intelligence that larger attacks were being prepared by Azerbaijan when it attacked Armenia last September. Iranian actions and statements helped to stop a further deterioration of that situation.” Others credit the US for deterring Baku, noted the publication, also describing Iran’s hawkishness as “music to Armenia’s ears”.

Azerbaijan was equipped with major military hardware obtained from “brother nation” Turkey and Israel—where it has lately, to Iran’s ire, opened its first embassy—when it achieved a victory in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in late 2020, causing Armenia to cede it substantial occupied territories.

Encouraged by its victory, Baku then set its sights on a new target—a land and rail corridor that would link Azerbaijan via Armenia’s southernmost province of Syunik to Azerbaijani exclave Nakhichevan and on to Turkey.

As Al-Monitor noted, this “Zangezour corridor” would “separate Iran from Armenia, its sole Christian neighbor and a vital stepping stone to Western markets. Armenia, in turn, would be effectively deprived of potential military support from its friendliest neighbor, Iran”.

The Zangezour corridor “would be a geopolitical catastrophe for Iran,” Hamidreza Azizi, an Iranian visiting fellow at the Berlin-based think tank SWP, was quoted as saying.

In further comments in the interview, Kostanyan said: “Azerbaijan has three objectives: the ethnic cleansing of Nagorno-Karabakh, to provoke large-scale military tension in the region and finally to push the Armenian side to give an extra-territorial corridor.”

“Iran is an important partner. The border with Iran is of utmost importance to us. We have two closed borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan, thus Iran and Georgia are our only gates to the outside world,” he added.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, with full backing from Turkey, has referred to the desired corridor as a “historical necessity”, and has said it will “definitely be opened whether Armenia wants it or not”.

But Iran has assessed that the operation of the corridor would interfere with its borders, something which it said is a "red line."

Warning Azerbaijan off rash actions, since 2021, Iran has conducted extensive military drills along its frontier with Azerbaijan. The latest, codenamed “Mighty Iran,” included setting up pontoon bridges for crossings of the Aras River, which makes up much of the border.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian told Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency last October that “Iran will not permit the blockage of its connection route with Armenia, and in order to secure that objective the Islamic Republic of Iran also launched a war game in that region."

Azerbaijan has responded with its own military exercises. In December, the “Fraternal Fist” drill, a joint manoeuvre with Turkey, took place.

As things stand, the focus is on what appears to be Azerbaijan’s latest aggressive ploy in its attempt to secure its objectives—an apparent blockade of Armenian inhabitants of Nagorno-Karabakh that has lasted more than 50 days. The inhabitants’ only road to Armenia has been cut off by self-described Azerbaijani “eco-activists” who have taken control of the route in the face of passive Russian peacekeepers, deployed in the locality after the 2020 war.

Reports of food and medicine shortages among the blockaded inhabitants cut no ice with Baku, which says the claims amount to Armenian provocation and asserts it has no control over the activists.

The overall standoff between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains a dangerous powder keg. Any evidence of Armenia obtaining Iranian armaments would, note observers, potentially ignite further conflict, though Yerevan, fearing US sanctions, has publicly stated it is not requesting weapons from Tehran.

https://www.intellinews.com/hawkish-iran-helped-stop-larger-azerbaijani-attacks-says-armenia-268653/?source=armenia

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Feb 3 2023




Will there be a war in Iran, and how might this threaten Armenia? Opinions















Iran and Armenia


In Armenia the alarming situation developing around Iran is of concern, as it creates risks for Armenia as well. Armenian experts believe that any shocks in Iran are not in the interests of Yerevan. They say that the risk of war given recent rapprochement between Iran and Russia and the sale of Iranian drones to the Russian Federation.




A series of powerful explosions occurred on the night of January 29 at military facilities in Iran. Among those hit by rockets is a factory that made drones many sources say are being supplied to Russia to fight the war in Ukraine. Some Western media reported that Israel was behind the strikes.





In the Armenian expert community, recent events in Iran have brought to the for discussion of the so-called “Zangezur corridor”, a road through the south of Armenia on the border with Iran which will connect Azerbaijan with its exclave Nakhichevan. AzerbaijanTurkey insist on having a “corridor”, that is, a road that Armenia will not control. Yerevan categorically refuses to take this step, offering any route through its territory, but with the preservation of its sovereign rights.


The President of Azerbaijan has repeatedly stated that Armenia will be forced to provide an extraterritorial corridor, “whether it wants it or not.” And this is perceived in Armenia as a “threat to break through the road by military means.” Iran is also categorically against the corridor. Some Armenian experts are sure that this is Tehran’s red line, but if Iran is drawn into a major war, Baku may be tempted to take advantage of the situation and get its corridor by force. Others believe that the guarantor of the territorial integrity of Armenia is not Iran, but norms of international law.






Zhanna Vardanyan, Iranist

Information attack

“There have been similar attacks on Iran before, especially from Israel, in the form of various kinds of sabotage, in particular on nuclear and other strategic facilities for the production of UAVs, missiles, etc. The last attack cannot be compared with the previous either in scale or in the amount of harm caused. It’s just that this attack was accompanied by a powerful information attack of allegedly many explosions in different cities of the Islamic Republic.


In fact, the attack on the Ministry of Defense factory in Isfahan was officially confirmed. On the same day, there was a fire at a factory for the production of motor oils in the city of Sahid-Shalimi. Iran denied information about other explosions.


This powerful flow of disinformation came from the Arab, Israeli, Turkish and Azerbaijani media, and they were not confirmed in authoritative American publications, which spoke of only two incidents.


Iran_attack_2023-1024x576.jpgAn explosion in the city of Isfahan. Photo: svs-gru.ru/


Azerbaijani involvement

“The attack on the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran the day before the drone strikes is personal in nature. Azerbaijan managed to seize the opportunity and turn everything against Iran, again through powerful propaganda. In this, Baku received support from Israel and Britain. This is evidenced by the first meetings of Azerbaijani officials immediately after the attack on the embassy, namely presidential aide Hikmet Hajiyev with the ambassadors of Israel and Britain.


These countries may develop a plan of some kind of action against Iran, from propaganda and information warfare to assistance in sabotage.


Tehran has already accused Azerbaijan and Israel of attacking Iranian facilities from the territory of Azerbaijan, although Baku denied this.


That is, the involvement of Azerbaijan in this sabotage is possible given its obvious anti-Iranian position, but most likely not from its territory. The attack on the Iranian facility was carried out in Isfahan with the help of quadcopters, so it is likely that it was carried out by local agents. Isfahan is located in the center of Iran, and it is unlikely that these quadcopters could fly there from Azerbaijan.”




Inviolability of the Armenian-Iranian border

“Iranian-Azerbaijani relations have been aggravated in recent years due to the position of the Islamic Republic of Iran on the issue of the Armenian-Iranian border. Of course, there have been tense periods between now, but it never reached such a peak.


Iran’s clear and categorical position regarding the territorial integrity of Armenia and the “corridor” through the Armenian city of Meghri led to serious problems with Azerbaijan. In view of this, Baku is trying to put pressure on Iran, neutralize it on the corridor issue. And the attack on the Azerbaijani embassy was an excellent reason to turn everything against Iran, present it as a terrorist country, raise the issue of some international mechanisms, etc.


Months earlier there was a larger attack on the Azerbaijani embassy in London, but there was no such reaction from Baku as in the attack on the embassy in Iran.”




Test of strength

“In general, the situation around Iran as well as inside the country is quite tense, so any scenario is possible. If the circle continues to narrow, if the attacks continue, there will be various kinds of sabotage, then the situation may lead to Iran simply not being able to respond to various developments, including along the Meghri corridor.


It’s not that Iran can abandon its red lines, but that it can lose its influence. This can only happen in the worst case scenario. For example, if Armenia finds itself in a situation similar to the Syrian events. Iran may then try to make mutual concessions with other players and get its share.


The inertia and inaction of Armenia, the inability to defend its borders, territorial integrity and security of the country on its own can lead to the Syrian scenario. If Armenia continues to weaken, it could be divided between Turkey, Azerbaijan and Iran. This is the worst case scenario.


The way out of the situation for Armenia may be the opportunity to straighten up in a short time, stand up for its own security and take advantage of the support of countries with which it has common interests.”




Will there be a war in Iran?

“Iran has been threatened by war for a long time, and in the past they also talked about the great risks of war, but still there’s been no war. War in Iran was either delayed or avoided, or it was of a different nature. Today the situation in the Islamic Republic is tense, and the same mechanisms are being used: information warfare, sanctions, and minor sabotage in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon against pro-Iranian forces.


If there is a war in Iran, it will completely divert Tehran’s attention from Armenia, it will be busy with his own problems. And then perhaps Azerbaijan and Turkey would take advantage of the situation and attack Armenia. In any case, war on Iran is not in our interests.”




Who can attack Iran?

“Azerbaijan is already sufficiently involved in the anti-Iranian campaign, but the sides have so far refrained from a real war, taking into account the likely consequences. After all, not just Azerbaijan and Iran will fight, but in that case Turkey, Israel and the West will take an active part.


War in Iran is not beneficial not only for Armenia, but also for Russia, which has found a good partner in Iran in its isolation. Iran for the Russian Federation is an opportunity to circumvent sanctions. Moreover, Iran itself has many years of experience of sanctions behind it. Therefore a weakening of Iran is not in the interests of Russia. Of course, in a number of issues Iran and Russia are rivals, but in countering the West they are natural allies.”




Andrias Ghukasyan, political scientist

Norms of international law – guarantor of Armenian-Iranian border

“Iran going to war with Israel is unlikely, as would be Azerbaijan’s participation. The states are not ready for this. What is happening today are elements of a hybrid war manifested in sabotage.


There is no Iranian red line on Armenian territorial integrity. There are norms of international law. But in Armenia there is propaganda that there are no norms of international law, and Azerbaijan can wage war and occupy [the southern region of Armenia] Syunik. The situation with Iran does not give Azerbaijan a reason for aggression against Armenia.


The fact that Iran did not retaliate against the drone attacks shows that the Iranian authorities have not made a final decision about whether to break off relations with the West and engage in a military confrontation or seek diplomatic solutions to difficult issues.”


https://jam-news.net/iran-and-armenia/





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