MJ

I just decided to "Yahoo" some information on the "oil mistery" of current days. The material below is one of the interesting, in my view insights, available in the public domain. ------------------------------------------------- February 20, 2003 France, Germany protect Iraq ties By David R. Sands THE WASHINGTON TIMES France and Germany, the two countries at the forefront of opposition to the U.S. hard line against Iraq, have a long history of commercial and other contacts with the regime of Saddam Hussein. TotalFinaElf, France's huge oil firm, holds the contract to develop Iraq's southern Majnoon and Nahr Umar oil fields, which could contain as much as 25 percent of the country's reserves. German firms were the market leaders in supplying sensitive dual-use technology to Iraq in the years before the 1991 Persian Gulf war, and they have been trying to boost civilian commercial contracts in more recent times. Khidir Hamza, an Iraqi defector who once headed Saddam's nuclear weapons program, recently called Germany "the hub of Iraq's military purchases in the 1980s." Iraq analyst Kelly Nugent Motz, in a recent analysis of Iraqi dual-use purchases that have helped build the country's arsenal of biological, chemical and possibly nuclear weapons, noted that many of the materials U.N. weapons inspectors are now seeking are "things the West supplied." "The real targets in Iraq — whether of inspectors now or of soldiers later — are the West's own exports," said Ms. Motz, editor of IraqWatch.org, published by the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control, a Washington-based research group. The issue of Western economic interests in Iraq has sparked an angry trans-Atlantic debate over motives of those supporting or opposing a potential U.S.-led military strike against Iraq. European critics — and many of the hundreds of thousands of protesters in the United States and Europe in recent days — contend Bush administration policy is driven not by Iraq's weapons but by its oil. U.S. energy firms largely frozen out by Saddam's regime could get priority deals to develop huge new Iraqi fields under a new regime in debt to Washington, they contend. But France and Germany are vulnerable on the same score, according to those who support the Bush administration tack. Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr., Delaware Democrat, at a recent Senate hearing on the future of a post-Saddam Iraq, recalled being told repeatedly during a recent European trip by skeptics that the debate about an Iraq war was "really about oil." "And I agreed with them," Mr. Biden recalled. "It is about oil — French oil and Russian oil." Richard Perle, a leading supporter of war with Iraq and head of an influential civilian Pentagon advisory board, last week said that TotalFinaElf was given a highly favorable deal on exploration rights in Iraq as part of an effort by Baghdad to buy allies against the United States. "The French interest in the propagation of contracts that will only go forward with this regime is perfectly obvious," Mr. Perle said in a speech in New York. Iraq has not been shy about dangling threats and rewards to its trading partners in order to bolster its international support and end the diplomatic and economic sanctions it has endured since the end of the Gulf war. In December 1999, the Iraqi newspaper Babel, edited by Saddam's elder son, Uday, warned France that its support for a U.S.-backed U.N. resolution toughening the existing trade sanctions could directly hurt French interests in Iraq. French oil firms might be forced to close their Baghdad offices and "lose the immense concessions which they have won but not yet exploited," wrote Abdel Razzak Hashemi, a former Iraqi ambassador to Paris. "The numerous advantages which French companies enjoy on the Iraqi market could also be halted." Baghdad followed through on the threat in July 2001, announcing that French firms would no longer be given preferential treatment in oil-development deals, citing Paris' support for the "smart sanctions" program then being pushed by the Bush administration. At the annual Baghdad international trade fair in November, the Iraqi Information Ministry reported that Saddam himself had ordered domestic buyers to "give priority" to German companies as a reward for "the firm positive stand of Germany in rejecting the launching of a military attack against Iraq by the U.S." Some 101 German companies were represented at the Baghdad exposition, including companies offering air-conditioning equipment, energy and transportation services, cosmetics, textiles and other products. Direct two-way trade between Germany and Iraq amounts to about $350 million annually, while another $1 billion is sold via third countries, according to Iraqi authorities. All Western countries — including the United States — have long involved economic ties to Saddam's regime. American firms were among the many suppliers of dual-use equipment and support that built up Iraq's conventional and unconventional military arsenals in the 1970s and 1980s. Even now, despite the extreme hostility between Washington and Baghdad, the United States buys nearly 5 percent of Iraq's oil exports under the U.N.-administered oil-for-food program. German firms were particularly active in striking deals with Iraq. Their relationships with Saddam's regime date back to the 1970s. The German daily Tageszeitung reported recently that it had seen portions of Iraq's 12,000-page arms declaration to U.N. weapons inspectors in December showing that German firms were the market leaders in supplying Iraq, even in the decade after the Gulf war. The paper reported that 80 German firms were named as suppliers in the Iraqi declaration. Even before the latest escalation of tensions, U.N. weapons inspectors had filed numerous reports of German firms complicit in aiding Iraq's covert programs in weapons of mass destruction. One April 2000 U.N. "activity memo" regarding the German firm Water Engineering Trading, found that between 1984 and late 1988 the company had, among other violations: • Sold, without license, $10 million worth of machinery and equipment, and tons of chemicals. •Supplied parts of the Samarra chemical weapons complex (identified by U.S. intelligence as Iraq's prime production site for mustard gas and nerve agents). •Supplied machine tools for converting conventional 122 mm artillery shells and rocket-propelled grenades into chemical munitions, exported as cooling containers for powdered milk. •After March 1987, sold most of the components for the $20 million Falluja chemical weapons plant to Iraq's Ministry of Industry and Military Industrialization. French firms show up far less frequently among the companies cited by the U.N. inspectors, although Iraq did acquire French Mirage jet fighters and French-made Exocet missiles during the 1980s. It was a French firm that won the contract to help build Iraq's nuclear power plant at Osirak, which was bombed by Israeli jets in 1981 shortly before it was to come on line. Mr. Hamza, the former Iraqi nuclear engineer, recalled in a recent Wall Street Journal opinion piece that many of the French projects in Iraq enjoyed huge profit markups. Saddam's regime paid $200 million for a small French research reactor in the mid-1970s that had a then-market price of about $50 million, Mr. Hamza recalled. "With these kinds of deals, is it any surprise that the French are so desperate to save Saddam's regime?" he asked. But it is French oil interests in Iraq that have attracted the most attention as the debate over war intensifies. Iraq has the world's second-largest proven oil reserves after Saudi Arabia's, and many of its most promising fields have been largely unexplored since the economic freeze imposed after the Gulf war. Russia and France have the largest contracts, while the major U.S. energy giants, including ChevronTexaco and ExxonMobil, have been largely shut out. Iraqi exile groups, including the U.S.-backed Iraqi National Congress (INC), have only increased speculation by issuing conflicting signals about the future of the energy concessions negotiated by Saddam. "American companies will have a big shot at Iraqi oil," INC Chairman Ahmed Chalabi said last year. But a senior leader of one of Iraq's two Kurdish opposition groups said the future of Iraq's oil wealth remains an exceedingly sensitive subject in the discussions with U.S. officials about a post-Saddam Iraq. "We know there are countries such as France and Russia with very important issues, but our first priority will be to ensure that our country's oil wealth is used to benefit Iraqis," the Kurdish official said. The Coalition for International Justice, a Washington-based human rights group, released an extensive study of foreign economic interests in Iraq on the brink of a likely new war. French, Russian and Chinese oil concessions, with an estimated top value of $38 billion, are the biggest interests in play. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Jiang Zemin, in a phone call yesterday, reportedly agreed they continue to oppose military action while U.N. weapons inspections proceed, a day after Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan and French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin agreed on the need to continue the inspections process. http://www.washtimes.com/world/20030220-11583742.htm

As much as I know, he has never been part of the political process, which under the current circumstances might be a positive phenomenon. From what I understand, he has lead the Mars Enterprise in Yerevan for some 15 years, now. There is not much known about him if it is not for being the son of his father.

Steve, My argument has been solely directed at the word “pilgrimage” (though I have used that term in the past, myself.) BTW, I didn’t quite understand your question. Could you rephrase it please? My understanding is that Etchimiadzin is built on a site of a destroyed pagan temple. Is it not so? However, I am not aware of Etchimiadzin, Hripseme, etc. ever being declared as “holly sites” by the Armenia Church (who else might declare something in Armenia as “holly site?”) However, I would gladly accept my mistake if you would care to educate me on the subject.

Dear Stormy, I think the allegations of diverting the attention from 9/11 and “hype” (what hype?) from Osama Bin Laden are baseless. In the earlier stages of the struggle with Osama, there was a visible enemy willing to engage in the open. Currently, the enemy has taken refuge primarily in the uncontrollable territories of Pakistan – so called “non man’s zone” and the character of their neutralization is different - there is no charade of televisable actions that one can bring to demonstrate “no-diverted actions.” Al Quaida is reorganizing and changing its signature and the terrain of engagement. So do the US intelligence and other services. The argument that “one was not hearing from Saddam Hussein for years” is at the core of the issue (one can argue that one was not hearing from Osama before 9/11). That is exactly where the problem starts. Saddam Hussein was given card blanch since 1991 to do whatever he may manage to do. The primary reason is that since 1991, US has not had coherent foreign policy and has not followed up on its obligation to oversee Iraq’s disarmament as contemplated by the surrender treaty signed by Saddam in 1991. Under such circumstances the problems don’t dissipate on their own, but become worse – North Korea’s example is a perfect demonstration of it. (Seems like, now, Iran is joining the camp skillfully using the circumstances). It is true that not only Iraq has WMD, and it is unfortunate. However, in the recent history, only Iraq has used them and only Iraq is perceived as a treat to its neighbors, while India and Pakistan are just on the path of mutual containment and no third country perceives them to be a thread to herself. I think you totally misunderstand what weapons; inspection means. Weapons’ inspectors duty is to verify that the known weapons have been destroyed. For example, this is what they were doing in the period of Soviet-American disarmaments – piles of missiles and warheads where being destroyed in the open, in the presence of inspectors. And even years later, one could go to the sites and observe the hills of resulted metal scrap. This is what inspectors do. Inspectors don’t come up with political decisions – they have a sole obligation to testify that the weapons subject to discussion have been indeed destroyed. On these grounds, the inspectors have unequivocally claimed that the weapons subject to interest are still unaccounted. This statement concludes their mission. The rest is to the politicians to decide. Therefore, I think the inspectors have to be left out of the equation, and if one is interested, one has to try to understand what is causing the real stalemate at the UN, which is the most important and corrupt international organization that we know of in the recent history – if needed I can bring arguments to support such allegation. The fact that US gave Saddam Hussein certain weapons, doesn’t serve as an excuse today for the US not to meddle into the situation, now. However, the source of some of the alleged weapons is highly questionable. Al Qaeda is, allegedly, directly associated with the Iraqi regime – most notably through the Egyptian Islamic Jihad, which in the recent history has merged with Al Qaeda and is currently actively operating on the territory of Iraq. True, they are operating elsewhere to – in Georgia, for example. However, the ones on the territory of Georgia are not perceived as direct threat towards the US (but rather Russia) and, additionally, a US military contingent is currently stationed in Georgia, trying to deal with the issue corresponding to the proportions of the threat. You are referring to the British incident of plagiarizing someone else’s analysis or evidence. It is very embarrassing for the British. However, it doesn’t mean that their allegations or evidence did not correspond to the truth. You are also referring to some documents that I have no knowledge of, therefore cannot comment. However, we are back to that “big, ugly, sinful Oil…” In 1991, the US troops totally demolished the Iraqi resistance and it required no serious effort to take Baghdad, and distribute the Iraqi Oil the way the winners would want. However, the US government stopped right there and didn’t do it, while having a perfect opportunity. Furthermore, rather than cutting a deal with Iraq, and forcing it to sell its Oil inexpensively, at least through the expansion of the Food-for-Oil program, which still is an opportunity, US and UK (primarily) restricted the Iraqi sales of Oil to the world, understanding very well that it would increase the Market Power of the Saudis. Furthermore, it is established that when losing the war, Iraq may blow up its oil wells. Don’t you think that the “oil argument” may be not only the most far fetched, but the most incompetent? For example, has any alleging party done simple arithmetic to analyze how much should the US spend to invade Iraq, then how much should it spend to upgrade the Iraqi oil infrastructures, which undoubtedly will suffer in the war, as to claim that US has economic incentives to go to war under the circumstances of record US budget deficits? About the Iraqi oil and Turkey. Obviously, Turkey is Oil starved country. It is obvious that Turkey needs cheap oil – everyone does. Turkey is demanding inexpensive oil after the war? Most likely. What is the criminal intent here and what is so bad that the US would not oppose to it? Or do you mean that after the war, “US will distribute cheap Oil only to Turkey and herself?” What is the problem here? In any case, I don’t have a lot of comments, since I have a habit of not talking about the issues that I don’t know enough about and, and I can guarantee you that I know about Oil a little more than you do. By the way, if you are really interested in the subject of Oil and Iraqi war-no-war, I would recommend you doing some research into the Iraqi-French and Iraqi-Russian deals. About the region… It is everybody’s hope and wish that this war is not only going not to cause a chain reaction, but to the contrary it is going to promote long-waited stability. The segmentation of the Middle Eastern geopolitics and geoeconomy is the direct lose of the people of the region – this is the worst region in the history of mankind with the worst hatred and problems. Do you think that all this region is missing now is weapons of mass distraction? I don’t know what some retired general is talking about on TV. However, Iraqi people do need democracy to the extend that they can digest it. I would be surprised to think that this is such a bad thing to want. However, the US is not trying to establish democracy in a country where there is no culture for democracy. It is not the mission of US. The US concerned is the security of the US and the region. Otherwise, there are dozens of despots on despotic and totalitarian regimes in Africa and elsewhere. I don’t know who Gore Vidal is. Never have heard of him. What I know however, that there is an obnoxious leftism on the rise in the US and, especially in Europe. There is an obnoxious anti-Americanism, especially in Europe. I remember about 10 years ago I was out for a drink or two with some Swedish colleagues. They claimed they hated US. I asked why? Their response was very direct – “They are too rich, and we hate rich people.” More I look at Europe, and I travel to Europe. This is the conclusion I come to – at least some of the European countries. Finally, I find very sorry that a person of your intelligence and character would resort to such expressions as “monkeys and apes” when expressing yourself on such serious issues as the world politics and peace and war are. I, for one, have much higher expectations from you. P.S. I mean to call UN not "most important" but most impotent. [ February 23, 2003, 12:01 PM: Message edited by: MJ ]

IN FACT, ROBERT KOCHARIAN AND HIS ADMINISTRATION ATTEMPT TO SEIZE POWER BY FORCE, PPA LEADER STEPAN DEMIRCHIAN YEREVAN, February 22. /ARKA/. Current RA President Robert Kocharian and his administration attempt at seizing the power by force, chairman of People's Party of Armenia, presidential candidate Stepan Demirchian said at a press conference today in Yerevan. He noted that after yesterday's rally in Yerevan, about 50 people were arrested, 35 of which are his trustees. "The authorities now go to open violence, ignoring the will of people who demand that justice is restored in the country," he said. In his opinion, this testifies to the circumstance that the current authorities of the country makes its last efforts to keep the power …. The people is offended, and if fair elections were conducted not that many people would join the rally," Demirchian said. He demanded that the authorities punished all those in charge of the ballot falsifications at the presidential electins. Presidential contender Stepan Demirchian's pre-election office heads were arrested for organizing an unauthorized rally on January 21, in Yerevan. These are mainly members of Republic Party and PPA. They are sentenced to 15-day imprisonment. Note according to RA CEC decision, the second stage of the presidential elections will take place on March 5, 2003. Current RA President Robert Kocharian (49.8% of votes) and PPA chairman Stepan Demirchian (28.3% of votes) will participate in the elections. 9 candidates participated at the first stage of the presidential elections. K.K.-0-

It appears that today’s demonstrations in Yerevan have been carried without repressions, however with thousands of people chanting “Amot, Amot” directed at the ruling regime. One of the leaders of demonstration in his speech has expressed confidence in the employees of the Armenian Internal Affairs Ministry, claiming that these employees are with the people, they have put their lives on the line to defend the country during the military operations in early 90s, and despite being under the command of the corrupt leadership, many of them are refusing to obey the orders to conduct oppressive actions and operations against the protesters.

I meant that there is no precedent in Armenian History of people organizing "pilgrimages to holly sites." I am not aware of declaration of any holy sites in Armenia history. I understand your argument that the word pilgrimage is indeed used in a lose manner in our days. As I said above, my comment was of a tangential character.

Stormy, First I thought you where referring to some countries suppressing the freedom of expression of other countries. The Freedom of Speech and Expression is a beautiful thing. Many people, including our own nation, have paid high price to earn it, and as you know, we are still fighting for the freedom of the expression of our people in Armenia, which is being suppressed in unprecedented ways as we speak. However, the Free Speech and Expression bear sympathy and weight when they are exercised in a truthful and responsible manner. BTW, which part of the Iraqi developments do you consider to be crap?

And who would those countries be, Stormy?

And here speaks the top plunderer and murderer of Armenia: _________________________________________________ OPPOSITION'S ACTIONS JEOPARDIZE ARMENIA'S SECURITY: DEFENCE MINISTRY Arminfo 22 Feb 2003 FEBRUARY 22. The opposition's current actions break the internal stability in Armenia and jeopardize the country's constitutional order and security, which is pregnant with unforeseeable consequences, the board of Armenia's Defence Ministry stated today. In this situation the Armenian army fully supports the government. "We urge the opposition to stop making anti-constitutional and opportunist statements. As a guarantor of the country's security the DM reminds that Armenia is still living in conditions of temporary armistice." The DM urges the country's public and opposition to be sensible and reserved, to comply with the law and to maintain the public order. "The Armenian army will not stay passive in case of an attempt to shatter Armenia's statehood or a possibile threat to the country's security." "We believe that reason will triumph and the second round of the presidential election will be held in full compliance with the law."

Wait to hear about the rats abandoning the ship.

quote:Originally posted by MJ: Another outcome is the regimes resignation conditional to Demirchian's issuance of a pardon to some key players in the regime. Here is the second step (the furst step being the "coaches coaching of the opposition:") ------------------------------------------------- STEPAN DEMIRTCHYAN WILL NOT ACCEPT KOCHARYAN'S PROPOSAL TO MEET Arminfo 22 Feb 2003 FEBRUARY 22. "Neither Robert Kocharyan not representatives of his electoral staff have not asked me to meet with them," presidential candidate, leader of the People's Party of Armenia Stepan Demirtchyan said at a press-conference today. He said that he does not want to meet with a man who sponsors criminal structures. He said that he did not proclaim himself a presidential. "I only said that the first round was rigged and the falsifiers must be punished." According to head of Demirtchyan's electoral staff Grikor Haroutyunyan the real picture was received only in 50% of the electoral districts. According to the data collected, Pres.Kocharyan polled 42%. If one adds to this figure CEC's falsified data from the remaining electoral districts, Kocharyan polls 46.6% at most, but never 49.8%.

DEMIRCHIAN ACCUSES AUTHORITIES OF DESTABILIZING THE COUNTRY'S SITUATION YEREVAN, February 22 (Noyan Tapan). About 50 people who were arrested on February 21 overnight in the aftermath of their participation in the rally the previous day are Stepan Demirchian's proxies and local campaign managers, Stepan Demirchian announced during a press conference held on Saturday evening. "We demand that those who committed violence and fraud be punished, but instead proxies and heads of our structures are punished. It will yield no result, but will show that are in the death struggle," Demirchian said. According to Demirchian, the people are insulted and demand that dignity and law be restored. The opposition could not have brought so many people together if the elections were free and fair. The candidate stated that the opposition acts entirely within the framework of the law and henceforth will, too, following the path of law. Meanwhile, the authorities have obviously taken to overt violence and provocations: "No one can stop me from meeting with my voters tomorrow, and I would advise them not to make absurd attempts to obstruct that meeting," said Demirchian apparently in response to the statement by Yerevan's mayor that the rally slated for Sunday were unsanctioned. Demirchian said that the demand for verification of the vote outcomes in certain polling precincts was in fact sabotaged and no checkup was managed within two days. Only one of the polling precincts situated in Yerevan's Nor Nork district was checked, and the results of that checkup were "disgraceful". Demirchian asserted that contrary to the accusations leveled by the authorities, he did not acclaimed himself president but only argued that Robert Kocharian had no received so many votes that the authorities said he had. "Let them not accuse us groundlessly of destabilizing the situation in the country: it is the authorities that destabilize the situation and the whole responsibility for the consequences lies with the authorities and with Robert Kocharian personally," he claimed.

PRESIDENT WARNS OPPOSITION AGAINST TRANSCENDING THE LIMITS OF LAW YEREVAN, February 22 (Noyan Tapan). President Robert Kocharian has urged the opposition to act solely within the framework of the law and not to disturb public stability. Speaking on Public TV, the president said: "The opposition is much stronger when it acts within the legal framework." Whenever it goes beyond this boundary, it immediately allows the authorities to do what is incumbent upon them by enforcing the law and strengthening their positions. In this sense, what the opposition is doing now is wrong also tactically. The president warned that the authorities would vigorously respond to any actions aimed at disrupting public order and fraught with impediments to the routine work of government bodies. "There is no prodding people to extremities," the president underlined. In another development, the RA Defense Ministry Board issued a statement blaming the opposition for "violating the internal political balance of the state" by its actions and calls. The armed forces "stand beside the legitimate authorities," the authors of the statement emphasized, calling on the opposition to put an end to "the anti-constitutional and destructive activities." "The armed forces cannot assume a passive stance in the event of possible threats to state order or the security of state borders," the statement says. P.S. No, it is not a joke.

The declaration below seems to be the latest development that I know. My understanding is that when California wakes up tomorrow, information about further escalation will have arrived, I think. _________________________________________________ KOCHARIAN AND HIS REGIME ATTEMPT TO "USURP POWER": DEMIRCHIAN YEREVAN, February 22 (Noyan Tapan). Robert Kocharian and his regime are making unconcealed attempts to usurp power under the guise of elections. The public will and determination to prevent this from happening have already made the criminal regime back off and abandon their designs to declare Kocharian the winner in the first round. This is the statement of the presidential candidate, PPA leader Stepan Demirchian, which was made public in a press conference on February 22. According to Demirchian's statement, this aspiration of the authorities is testified to by the mass violations and riggings committed in Kocharian's favor with the participation of pro-establishment representatives during the February 19 voting and the subsequent vote count, the inaction of the Central Electoral Commission that had failed to prevent those violations, the failure to stop the law-enforcement bodies from taking violent actions, and finally the February 22 arrests of people who participated in the previous day's protest rally in Yerevan. According to the document, the sum of the data already falsified in precincts has nothing to do with the published votes, which is evidenced by the fact that the CEC avoids providing a precinct-by-precinct breakdown of the vote. "The attempts to apply force to stifle the will of the people expressed on February 19 in order to retain power by all means is the last-ditch efforts of the agonizing anti-popular, criminal regime. All these attempts are futile. The united people will achieve a victory," the author of the statement stresses, adding that an attempt to usurp power is the gravest crime, and the whole responsibility for its consequences lies entirely with Robert Kocharian. [ February 22, 2003, 04:23 PM: Message edited by: MJ ]

Stormy, As a note of tangential pertinence to the subject, the term pilgrimage, though used in the recent history, is not characteristic to Armenian history and tradition. It bears sort of religious content, for which there is no precedent in Armenian history, and is more characteristic for the Islamic context. Any expeditions that Armenian may or may not organize or support would be of historic and cultural character, which is a proper context for the upcoming future. However, given the corruptness of Armenian self-perception, especially in Diaspora, that term may be forced into circulation, unfortunately.

Decision 2003: Voting day turned from fair to foul at some precincts By Gayane Abrahamyan, Zhanna Alexanyan, Vahan Ishkanyan and Gayane Mkrtchyan ArmeniaNow reporters On Election Day, Wednesday, a woman named Louisa who lives in the Arabkir area of Yerevan received a knock on her door and was offered 5,000 drams (about $8.60) if she would sign an agreement to vote for President Robert Kocharyan. She was also offered a ride to and from her voting precinct station. The campaigners took Louisa's name and passport money. Louisa took the money and the ride. "One way or another I was going to vote for Kocharyan," she said later. "But the money won't do any harm." Actions such as money for votes were among accounts of violations leading a collection of foreign monitors to conclude that the first round of the 2003 Presidential election did not meet international standards of a democratic election. A proxy of Stepan Demirchyan complained that at poling station 260710 in Echmiadzin at about 8:30 a.m., when around 30 votes had been cast, a group appeared and put more than 80 pre-marked ballots into the box. The accusation was recorded by a team of foreign observers on the site and similar violations were reported in three other Echmiadzin stations around 6:30 p.m. At School No. 2, Elena Paronyan, a proxy of the Armenian Communist Party reported that a group including the Mayor of Echmiadzin, Hakob Hakobyan, and Robert Kocharyan's local campaign manager Hrachik Abgaryan "surrounded the electoral box. Whoever you complain to, they shut your mouth. They did their job laughing and went away." At another site a proxy, who wished to remain anonymous, says about 30 "broad-shouldered men" surrounded the electoral box in three rows, and "the number of electoral papers they put into the box corresponds to the number of people registered in Armenia but living in other countries. They did their calculations in advance." Complaints were made to Central Electoral Commission president Seyran Melkonyan who said: "They went out and left without saying anything. I did not prevent that. What should I do?" The editorial office of ArmeniaNow received a call from School No. 172 in Yerevan that a man took a bundle of ballots from underneath his coat and put them in the ballot box. At that location Demirchyan proxy Kamo Avetisyan claimed that about 200 false ballots had been cast. Anna Arzakanyan, an observer with the Non-Governmental Organization "The Choice is Yours" said she witnessed the ballot box stuffing and that police on the scene did not intervene though they were allowed to. Electoral Commission representative Lianna Mkrtchyan says she was talking and saw nothing. Five Opposition candidates signed a letter to the Electoral Commission, citing 10 violations, including charges that names of the deceased were included on voter registration lists. The letter also alleged that a group of young men in the village of Ohanyan tried to stuff a ballot box and when they were stopped, stole the box. Candidate Vazgen Manoukyan assessed the process of elections in 2003 as worse than in 1996 and 1998. "I have much information," the former Prime Minister said. "There probably were violations such as filling voting boxes in 1996, but that time the majority of violations were made through registrations. This is being organized by the authorities intentionally in order to guarantee the percentage." Adrine Avagyan, 27, proxy for Manoukyan in election district No. 40, says she was attacked when she tried to interfere with a man who was putting multiple ballots in the box. "I wasn't able to take the ballots from him," Avagyan said. "He threw me to the ground and continued to beat and curse." Election Commission member Venera Stepanyan says that at her poling station in Nairy Zaryan school Election Day went smoothly until about 30 minutes before closing time. At around 7:30 p.m.: "About 20 people gathered and created disorder. They stood near the ballot box. We told them to stay away from the box but they didn't. Then the lights went off and noise was raised." Nubar Gevorgyan, who was in charge of watching the box said men were trying to take away the ballot box. "When the lights went off I put my hand on the box but when they pushed me away I didn't see what happened next," Gevorgyan said, showing his hand which had been scraped when the box was pulled away. (At an upstairs station in the same school at around 4 p.m. a proxy chased but was unable to catch a man they say put several ballots into the box.) Sophelia Vardanyan, who teaches Armenian language and was standing as an observer for "The Choice Is Yours", was pushed away by the intruders. She was crying of insult and trembling of fear following the incident. "I've been respecting Kocharyan until this moment," she said. "Now he is disgusting to me. How can I register these breaches? I can't write down incorrect information. But I am afraid to tell the truth. Who knows who is who? My son is attending this school. I don't want somebody to hurt him." Proxies and Commission members opened the box to inspect the wrinkled ballots and found they contained votes for President Kocharyan. It turns out that, although the ballots contained Commission member signatures, the stamp necessary to validate the votes had come from a different precinct. (On the night before an election, Commission members sign ballots which are then placed in a safe. After a vote has been made, a different Commission member than the one who signed the ballot, stamps the ballot in the presence of the voter, who then places the ballot in the box. It is possible that the men obtained the signed ballots overnight and hoped that the Commission members would only look at the signature and not the stamp. In any case, 150 votes with the wrong stamp were declared invalid.) Zhanna Antonyan of Yerevan says that neither she nor her 25-year old daughter's names were listed on a voting register, but that her husband, who died seven years ago, was. She said she would not bother with going to the court to have her name restored. "I'm really tired of doing this every election," she said. "Let them do whatever they want with my vote." It has been a season of many emotions, Decision 2003. Doves of peace were offered and officers to enforce that peace were stationed around the Central Elections Commission. www.armenianow.com

Outside Eye: A non-Armenian's view of life in his adopted home By John Hughes Editor After boasting - as early as four months ago and as recently as Wednesday - that he would be re-elected without a runoff, Robert Kocharyan may be just days away from losing his presidency to a ghost. Stepan Demirchyan got enough votes Wednesday to force a runoff, but it was his slain father, Karen, whose reputation earned them. Armenia has unexpectedly become a boiler of potential political upheaval bubbling under one of winter's biggest snows. Into that snow on Wednesday voters went to speak their minds and again on Thursday, some 10,000 or so, to shout their claims that their voting rights were abused. Turns out that foreign observers agreed with the protesters' claims. And now not only is the President's career in jeopardy but his legacy polished by a reign over historic economic growth is threatened with the tarnish of his having staged a corrupt campaign and still losing. In the few words he managed for Thursday's rally, Demirchyan promised that his first order of business if elected President would be to punish those who tried to steal the election from him. His comrades in opposition used words such as "rape" and "political corpses" to emphasize their commitment to the cause. All the rhetoric needed was a "smoke him out" reference and it could have been a Bush vs. Bin Laden rally. The politics of revenge may determine Armenia's next President, but even the most anti-Kocharyan voter must wonder what kind of house Demirchyan would set up once he'd cleaned the current one. It would likely be a house into which veteran statesmen such as Vazgen Manoukyan, Artashes Geghamyan and Raffi Hovhanissian would be welcomed. And their association may, second to his name, be Demirchyan's strongest credential. In Armenia's last Presidential election in 1998, it was Karen Demirchyan and Kocharyan in a hotly contested runoff. (Karen Demirchyan, who became Speaker of Parliament, was one of eight leaders assassinated in 1999.) Nostalgia for a past that is no longer possible in independent Armenia has thrust Stepan Demirchyan into a role once held by his Communist leader father. And if the people who are trying to put him in power are merely voting for "the good old days", then disappointment can be the expected fruit of their campaign season. No one must be more shocked than Robert Kocharyan these days, unless it is those who have ridden his reign to their own places of power and may now be two weeks away from abrupt career changes. I don't know anybody who likes Robert Kocharyan. I do know, however, people who voted for him reluctantly because the alternatives were not strong enough to win their confidence. I doubt anything will happen before March 5to change those votes. But it must concern Kocharyan supporters that, even with the privilege of power afforded him to abuse voting legislation (as a joint report by observers from OSCE, ODIHR and PACE has confirmed), he failed not only to receive a mandate but even to win in the manner he said he would. Long before the well-meaning West sent its overseers here to judge Armenia's ability to behave democratically, measures - some through the subtle means of legislation and others as blatant as a bullet - were being taken to assure a Kocharyan victory. You have to be here awhile to see the pieces fall into place. I hadn't been here long enough to see the cause and effect potential last April when the only oppositional television station, A1+, was denied a broadcast license. While local colleagues were trying to convince me of Government conspiracy, I argued that the television company simply failed to produce a good business plan. At the time one local journalist told me this was the beginning of the Presidential campaign. I now see that she was right, as on Wednesday, State-sanctioned television and a Foreign Ministry-supported website proclaimed a calm and clean election while all day long our newsroom and other media had received reports to the contrary of ballot stuffing, outright beatings of journalists and proxy observers and even of one ballot box that was stolen. Most of the country relies on television for its news, and, in the absence of A1+ there was no broadcast that didn't follow the Party line. It is no coincidence, either, that a decision on assigning a new frequency that might have gone to A1+ - which should have been made in November - was postponed until after the election, by a Commission that is appointed by the President. And speaking of postponements: On January 17, two days after an attorney claimed he would produce evidence implicating Kocharyan sympathizers in the 1999 Parliament assassinations, the trial of the accused was put on hold and - after more than a year of steady and almost daily testimony - has not had a session since. If at first an outsider is naïve about how things work here, the pendulum might later swing to paranoia. Still, I wonder too why in a country as small as this, the public has yet to be given results of a census taken in October 2001. The entire population of Russia was counted and figures released in two months. Yet in this little place we're supposed to believe that the process takes 19 months - as a report is expected in June, after the Parliamentary elections. Might an up-to-date account of the numbers make it impossible for the Kocharyan camp to have gotten the votes claimed? In any case, whether by his own manipulation or the Opposition's impotence, Robert Kocharyan got nearly twice as many votes as the next man, and was only 0.2 percent away from the 50 percent (plus one vote) required to win. He was only about 4,500 votes shy of the combined votes of his eight opponents. Again today his promoters are confidently predicting victory in the run off. But in the dimmed sun of bright campaign promise, long shadows fall from his term in office and chill a disenfranchised citizenry who at best might be tolerant though it deserves to be hopeful. He has run on a platform that recounts five years of economic growth. And it is undeniable that Armenia is in better fiscal condition than at anytime since independence, with evidence that the trend will continue. But consider this: Who but a total incompetent or outright adversary could stop the growth, considering that so much of it comes from international aid, out to buy good will and regional stability, and from a Diaspora eager to build a country regardless of who runs it? And who has profited from the economic boom? Certainly not the thousands who have fled the country during Kocharyan's administration, so perhaps others, including Government Ministers who make routine gambling trips to Moscow and own banks, hotels and discos. It is known here that the President's wife recently bought one of the privatized hospitals and that his former political allies now running Artsax are in line to buy two others, one of which, a source tells me, was ordered privatized by the President over the objection of Parliament. Maybe there's nothing wrong with former Communists capitalizing on capitalism, except that anybody who has so much as paid off a traffic cop knows that in this country business success comes from skirting the law. And even the perception of corruptibility damages a public's ability to believe its leadership. The argument is well made that a flourish of new business brings jobs and that "trickle down" economics could save the middle class. I hope that is true. But many of us would like it if the trickle didn't so often stop in the pockets of Ministers and mobsters whose loyalty to the man in charge is bought by guarantees of personal financial excess. Finally, it should not be forgotten that Robert Kocharyan dominates the political scene here today only because his two principal rivals for power were murdered on the floor of the Parliament. Whether either of the assassinated would have led Armenia any better will forever remain unknown. The "martyred" were also flawed men. But one left a ghost. And whether or not he is Presidential material, he has risen to have haunting effects on the plans of this President and his men. www.armenianow.com

There is a joke: “Why do animal right supporters intimidate older, wealthy fur wearing women?” The answer is “because it is less safe to intimidate the lather wearing bikers.” ------------------------------------------------- Fur flies at London fashion show Thursday, February 20, 2003 Posted: 7:27 AM EST (1227 GMT) LONDON, England -- Anti-fur protesters hijacked a star-studded fashion show as models paraded on the London catwalk. With an audience including American singers Christina Aguilera and Pink, Welsh classical singer Charlotte Church and diva Shirley Bassey, three demonstrators stormed the stage. Security guards surrounded the protesters and ushered them to the exits as models in designer Julien Macdonald's show at London Fashion Week show attempted to continue as if nothing untoward was happening. The protest was staged by People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals against Macdonald because of his use of fur in his outfits. Sean Gifford, PETA UK's director of campaigns, said: "Some old designers not only are heartless and shameless, they are also deaf -- to the cries of animals in steel traps and painfully killed on fur farms internationally." The stars in the audience were more forgiving than PETA. Bassey said: "I love him because he is Welsh and stylish...and because he gave me these shoes." Church said she loved his "completely glam" designs but added: "They're all a bit risque for me. But I love looking at them." Macdonald himself was able to laugh off Wednesday night's interruption, saying his fur jackets and coats were all rabbit and by-products of the meat industry. "None of the animals was raised for their fur...so the protest was a bit of a waste of their time," he told Reuters. Macdonald's show, staged in a completely round theatre in north London, was among the last of 50 catwalk shows in London Fashion Week. His clothes are loved by celebrities for their red-carpet allure. Australian singer Kylie Minogue is expected to be dressed in a Macdonald design for the Brit music awards in London on Thursday. www.cnn.com [ February 21, 2003, 12:18 PM: Message edited by: MJ ]

Another interesting material, I think - this time in English. There is an interesting comment regarding Karabagh. _________________________________________________ Agony 18.02.2003, The round of the pre-electoral preaching is over. Every candidate carried out his preaching more or less successfully, naturally, each typical to his style. Some of them preferred representing their own programs to devoting most of their time to anti-preaching of the others. Naturally, the candidates mainly visited all the regions. During the last days of preaching, the candidates or electoral staffs publicly estimated their own chances as well. The main opposition candidates either declared that are going to win in the first round or pointed out that two opposition candidates will compete in the second round. Head of the present president's staff declared that Robert Kocharian would win just in the first round. Dynamics of the represented figures is rather worth attention. If at the beginning of the publicity campaign "the rented sociologists" used to speak of fantastic 75% percent of votes, now at his last press conference S. Sargsian stated only "50% percent and more", what means that even the authorities take into consideration with the registered progress of the opposition. Rather interesting is the change of mood among our countrymen. The opposition candidates are evidently welcomed in the regions of Armenia, sometimes even with great delight and excitement. As for the present president, he wasn't welcomed at all, especially during the last days, and even mobilization of administration didn't change the situation. The fact, that the authorities are rather nervous, is obvious from the last press conference of S. Sargsian. At this conference he used such vocabulary that hasn't been used by him so far. His ironical smile was eloquent as well and one could see it during the whole program. The masterpiece of the press conference was another unexpected step by Sargsian - the division of the society into "we" and "they". Logic of it was rather clear: for "we" he meant those from Artsakh, for "they" - the others and especially for the opposition, which was accused of having anti-Karabagh moods and intending "to hand" it. Even a map depicted on a slogan of one of the candidates was qualifies as "liberated territories handed over beforehand". Certainly, such accusation is beyond any understanding, as one could easily regard all the TV channels broadcasting weather as traitors, since they all widely use the same map. Nevertheless, people of Artsakh will hardly wish to identify themselves with these two, and the letter of 8000 people from Artsakh, read by Albert Bazeyan at the opposition referendum, proves it rather well. By the way, it's not by chance that the ARP and particularly the prime minister have been rather modest during the whole preaching campaign; actually their participation in the publicity campaign of the present president had only symbolic nature. Perhaps, they prefer waiting, moreover, when there are no sign of unity among the authority elite. Particularly interesting is the fact that during the last few days, representatives of the authorities, including first of all those appointed by the president of RA, were substituted in the electoral committees. S. Sargsian has appealed his team members "to calm down", "to behave themselves", "not to let any falsification"; when a high-ranking official talks about rigged elections, it means they are really expected. In fact, pre-electoral staffs and opposition mass media are overflowed with various and numerous alarms concerning electoral transgression. It's also important that S. Sargsian declared that till the Election Day and right on the Election Day there'll be "no use of force". But he didn't tell that after elections, for example in case of defeat of the authorities or in case of the population's revolt against adulteration, there'll be no use of force either, so one shouldn't exclude that September 26 of 1996 can be repeated. By the way, there are rather hysterical declarations in the authority camp according to what if Robert Kocharian isn't elected, the country will be lost, or they ascribe unleashing a civil war to the opposition. Rather eloquent evidence of community mood is the opposition city referendum, which wasn't at all different from that of 1988, and it's worth mentioning that speeches of the speakers were warmly applauded even in the back rows. Such things haven't at all happened at any referendum in the square of Liberty. No figures are to be represented here, but one can't ignore the fact that the second round is inevitable. Anyway, we just have to hope that everything will finish in a peaceful way, without any clashes and that people will actively participate in the coming elections just to have a chance of choice. www.iravunk.com

Not here. But in Armenia there is significant expertise in that arena.

Thanks for trying, Azat. The link should be good enough, I guess, Besides, one will find a lot more up to date information on that site.

Dear Elly, You would be well advised to organize a fact finding trip to Armenia.

Why doesn't it work?

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