Bush or Gore?

[Guest]

Winning may not be such a good thing this time around. As with Jimmy Carter and Poppa Bush, getting elected at the top of an economic cycle is bad news. When the economy turns, the next president (whether it is Gore or Bush) is going to lose dramatically in the 2004 elections.

 

Some have said this is why both parties put forth weak candidates. A sacrifice now for the hope of an 8 year run from 2004-2012.

[Guest]

But is it the issue here, Mike?

[Guest]

Sorry, I need to learn how to click the right buttons!

 

[This message has been edited by Pilafhead (edited November 09, 2000).]

[Guest]

Not sure what the issue is here, besides the idea of Bush vs Gore. Neither are good--possibly intentionally.

[Guest]

I think the current issue is that there is an ongoing attempt to steal the Presidency from Bush.

 

It is such a disgrace(:

[Guest]

Editorial: The Hijacking

Of the Presidency

Monday, November 13, 2000

 

 

The theft of the presidency proceeds apace.

A hand count of electoral returns has either begun or is about to begin in several heavily Democratic Florida counties — a shockingly subjective undertaking, front-end-loaded to deliver the Sunshine State, and thus the White House, to Vice President Al Gore.

 

But before that happens, the veep and his high-powered sidekicks need to think long and hard about what they'll do with a presidency that would amount to stolen property.

 

That is, a presidency devoid of moral authority to govern — a prescription for civil dissonance that will make the Clinton years seem like small beer in comparison.

 

We understand that the counting of ballots is part of the political process — that politicians are, of necessity, involved.

 

But too much is enough. The "recount" is swarming with Democratic Party operatives — not one of whom had the decency to do what George Bush's brother, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, did at the outset: recuse himself to avoid the appearance of impropriety.

 

By now, all America has seen the result: the Florida "hand recount."

 

This involves putting a disputed ballot up to a lamp and attempting to divine what it was the voter intended to do — as opposed to what he or she actually did.

 

But that's not a recount.

 

That's egg-candling. And mind-reading.

 

There's nothing objective about it. Or fair.

 

And it's wholly unacceptable as the means by which title to the presidency of the United States of America is delivered to anyone — let alone the guy who lost the state to George W. Bush, pending the opening of absentee and overseas ballots.

 

Bush won the state on the up — by a nano-whisker, to be sure. But he won.

 

Then he won the various recounts.

 

And that should be good enough.

 

But, of course, it's not.

 

Not to Al Gore. And not to Bill Daley of Chicago, the head mechanic in this broad-daylight effort to hot-wire the presidency and drive it off to Nashville.

 

Happily, lawyers for Gov. Bush will be in federal court this morning. Their mission: to stop this sham, and to freeze the process in place until Friday — when the absentee and overseas ballots are opened and counted.

 

And that should be the end of it.

 

Would that be fair? Yes.

 

Would it be perfect? Of course not.

 

But compared to what was going on all day yesterday — Democrats combing through their most reliable precincts, grubbing for the handful of votes they need to elect their candidate — it is the difference between night and day.

 

Between right and wrong.

 

Between a legitimate presidency and electoral piracy.

 

Between a domestically governable country and ceaseless political discord.

 

Between the beacon of democracy and reason that America has long been in a fractious, dangerous world — and the abyss.

 

That much is at stake this morning.

 

Nothing less.

[Guest]

GOP Gains in First Round

Of Recounts

Monday, November 13, 2000

 

 

Recounts — both manual and machine — proceeding in some counties in Florida are favoring George W. Bush so far. But officials with the Texas governor's campaign maintain their opposition to the process regardless of who gains from it.

 

Peter Cosgrove/AP

 

Nov. 13: A Volusia County worker holds up a ballot for review in DeLand, Fla., as the recount continues.

 

 

Bush showed a net gain of 97 votes in Polk County after a weekend re-scan of ballots there, and squeezed another 21 votes out of Volusia County with 69 of 172 precincts recounted by hand there so far. Hand recounting over the weekend in Palm Beach County turned up a net gain of 39 votes for Vice President Al Gore.

 

"It doesn't matter whether we gain or lose votes, our principle remains the same — that a hand recount without any standards is unreliable, and as we can see ... often results in chaos," Bush spokesman Ari Fleischer said. "The best course of action is to allow the existing two recounts to stand. Anything less would be so subjective that it would neither be fair nor right."

 

As of Monday, Bush leads Gore in Florida by 388 votes, with hand recounts proceeding in two counties and on horizon in two others. A federal judge Monday morning refused the Bush campaign's request to halt the manual recount process.

 

All this, despite word from the Florida Secretary of State that recounts in all of Florida's 67 counties should be completed by 5 p.m. Tuesday and a winner certified by Saturday after overseas absentee ballots are rolled into the totals.

 

"The law unambiguously states when the process of counting and recounting the votes cast on Election Day must end," Harris said in a written statement distributed in Tallahassee. "For this election, that time is 5 p.m. Nov. 14, which is tomorrow."

 

Under those constraints, Volusia County, home of the Daytona International Speedway, could be the only one county to finish its work before the deadline. Some 42 officials there began counting the 184,019 presidential ballots there Sunday and said they expected to be finished late Monday.

 

"The count is going faster than we first expected it would. It looks like all precincts will be counted by tonight, or very early Tuesday morning at the latest," said county spokesman David Byron.

 

Just in case, the heavily Democratic county sued for the right to complete and certify its manual count regardless of the deadline, and to bar the state from ignoring its results.

 

Also Monday, Broward County officials said they plan to begin a hand recount of about 6,000 ballots in three precincts. If major problems are found, authorities will consider a full hand count of all precincts in the Democratic stronghold.

 

And in Miami-Dade County, the state's largest, officials planned to meet Tuesday to consider the Democrats' request for a hand recount.

 

Under Florida law, manual recounts are allowed if a candidate meets a post-election deadline to request them and the local election board agrees.

 

— The Associated Press contributed to this report

[Guest]

What a nightmare! What a hellish nightmare. "Beacon of democracy"???!!!...Huh!!!...epats havi tsitsaxnel kga...All I know is that from now on, the U.S. better keep its nose out of U.N. supervised third world elections to ensure that "democratically elected officials" rule that particular third world country.

[Guest]

Let's flip a coin. Head - Bush wins, tail - Gore loses.

 

Fair enough?

[Guest]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

November 10, 2000

 

Statistics point to more than random error in Florida vote

By Jace Radke

<jace@lasvegassun.com>

LAS VEGAS SUN

 

At one in 49 million, the chances of hitting Megabucks on one spin are slim, but not as slim as the odds that Vice President Al Gore would make up as much ground as he has in the Florida recount, according to a UNLV study.

 

Economics professor Tom Carroll began running statistical equations Thursday on the net gains both Gore, who gained more than 2,200 votes, and Texas Gov. George W. Bush, who added about 700 votes, have made in the recount. He found that the statistical chances for such large and different totals to occur as a result of random glitches was less than infinitesimal.

 

"The probability of being struck by lightning is about one in a million," Carroll said. "The same person would have to be hit by lightning 30 times to compare with what we've seen in this recount."

 

Carroll's equations assume that any problems in the original counting of ballots in Florida were caused by computer errors or innocuous human errors, and the chances that errors of this magnitude were the result of computer or human mistakes is extremely thin according to Carroll's calculations.

 

"A recount is a 50-50 proposition, so statistically speaking, making up something like 1,700 votes is highly unlikely," Carroll said. "For this to have been just random error is statistically unlikely. It wouldn't be unlikely to see some changes in the number of votes during a recount, but the differences should come much closer to canceling each other out."

 

Carroll, a Democrat, used the computations to illustrate a point in his Thursday night statistics class for students seeking a master's degree in business administration.

 

"The students were flabbergasted to see what they've been learning applied to a real-life situation," Carroll said. "It really is a small, small number as far as the chances of such a big difference between the changes in the numbers of votes between the candidates. It's something like 179 zeros and then a two and a three."

 

Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., and former Gov. Bob Miller, honorary chairman of the Gore campaign in Nevada, are among the Democratic officials nationwide questioning the chances of such irregularities showing up in the recount.

 

"As someone who has experienced two close recounts, I know that they don't usually lead to big changes in the vote totals," Reid said at a Thursday news conference. "This election changes all the rules. In the Florida recount we've seen huge changes in the vote totals, and on top of that, there are serious allegations of voting irregularities and potential fraud. This election needs to be scrutinized closely."

 

Reid went through a recount of Washoe County when Senator-elect John Ensign attempted to win Reid's seat in 1998. On election night Reid won by 401 votes, and after the recount the final margin was 428.

 

Bush had a 1,784-vote election night lead over Gore. After the recount, the unofficial margin for Bush is 327 votes.

[Guest]

I just wanted to quote these (as much as I remember):

 

Churchill:"Democracy is the worst political system, while others are unacceptable".

 

Molotov:"Democracy is nice, if you know who will become the president".

[Guest]

Martin, the coin flip just might work. I was talking to one of my professors the other day (big shot expert on election politics), and he seems confident that no matter who wins, it won't be the right guy. Why? Because statistically speaking, the margin of error is too slim and the error rate too high to be able to correctly identify the winner. So there we go; we're stuck with a flake in the White House anyway, I don't see what the bickering is all about...lol

 

BTW, I think I might have mentioned my protest vote for Buchanan because neither of the candidates were good enough. I was talking to my cousin, he cast a protest vote for Nader. Nader???????...lol.. We couldn't stop laughing for about half an hour. You see what the state of politics in this country is making us do?...sidenote: I'm so proud of my couz; he's a sports columnist for the local paper, and only 20 yrs. old!!!!

[Guest]

Besides the very strange Buchannan spike in Palm Beach County, this whole recount thing is futile. The margin is so small as to imply neither candidate is significantly the winner in Florida. Basically, they're trying to decide which candidate is the insignificant leader in votes. Just declare a cut-off and that's that.

 

Something clearly went wrong in Palm Beach--either include the votes or completely throw out the county.

 

Given the inherent error in tabulating votes and the fact that neither candidate has a nationwide mandate, both (or neither!) deserve the presidency. Let's pick one already!

[Guest]

Gayane, we were both typing the same post at the same time. Cue the Twilight Zone music...

[Guest]

Gayane, I agree with the logic of your professor. But I disagree with your conclusions, as well as Mike's conclusions.

 

To me, Bush is the President America needs at this juncture.

[Guest]

Poll: Gore May Win Strategic Victory, Lose Public Opinion

Wednesday, November 15, 2000

By Adrienne Mand

 

A new survey suggests Americans are largely divided along party lines about the presidential election pandemonium, but many agree on one point: the past week's bizarre events have shaken their confidence in both White House contenders.

According to an online Harris Poll of 117,000 voters released Wednesday, electors are "sharply polarized" over nearly every issue concerning the Florida vote counting and its implications for Al Gore and George W. Bush.

 

FOX FAST FACTS

When asked of the handling of the election controvesy by presidential canidate:

49% of the voters disapprove of Gore's handling of situation

40% of the voters approve of Gore's handling of situation

11% of the voters were undecided about Gore's handling of situation

When asked of the handling of the election controvesy by presidential canidate:

40% of the voters disapprove of Bush's handling of situation

41% of the voters approve of Bush's handling of situation

17% of the voters were undecided about Bush's handling of situation

When asked who is responsible for any incorrect voting in Florida:

20% blame election officials

40% lay blame on the voters who did not read the ballot correctly

38% blame both

 

Source: Online Harris Polls

 

By a margin of 51 percent to 40 percent, the respondents said Bush "should be the next president of the United States," based on what they currently know about the election. In addition, 52 percent said they believe Bush will be elected president "if the votes are counted perfectly, accurately and honestly in Florida," compared to 32 percent who believe he will lose.

 

Democratic voters, however, sharply favored Gore on both questions, and Republican voters favored Bush, with the independents siding with Bush.

 

"The political struggle in Florida is clearly seen through the ‘polarizing’ lens of partisan loyalty," said Gordon S. Black, chairman and CEO of Harris Interactive. "With everyone seeming to take sides, from the voters to members of Congress and the national media, this process is likely to accentuate the partisan divisiveness that has characterized the House and the Senate for the past 10 years."

 

"The winner may want to reach out to his adversaries," Black added, "but he is likely to find no one listening."

 

Butterfly Bungling

 

A majority of respondents said they believe some Florida voters may have voted for Pat Buchanan by mistake when using the butterfly ballot in Palm Beach County, which is the subject of citizen lawsuits and much of the controversy. Fifty-four percent felt this way, compared to 35 percent who did not.

 

At the same time, 61 percent said the problems in the Sunshine State were the result of honest errors.

 

And while 48 percent of respondents viewing the actual ballot on their computers said it was "not at all confusing," 52 percent stated the ballot was "somewhat" to "extremely confusing." However, 53 percent who said it would be "difficult" to vote for the wrong candidate, while 41 percent of those who saw it said it would be "easy." Six percent were not sure.

 

New Election?

 

In addition, the American electorate is against a revote either in Palm Beach County or the entire state, the survey found, with 60 percent of voters not wanting any new elections. Sixteen percent would support a revote in Palm Beach County and 16 percent in all of Florida.

 

They’d even prefer to hold a new election nationally, rather than let Palm Beach County hold the lone revote, by a margin of 47 percent to 34 percent, with the rest undecided.

 

There was agreement, however, that the results should not be challenged in court. Regardless of who wins, nearly three of every four voters said they do not want the loser to challenge the decision. Part of the reason is that just 31 percent said they were confident that the courts would make "a fair and just decision."

 

New Occupant to Suffer

 

What remains clear is that whoever ends up occupying the White House will lack major support from both Republicans and Democrats. According to the poll, just 49 percent would feel confidence in the new administration, even if the loser conceded and did not go to court over the results. In addition, 45 percent said a protracted court battle would undermine their confidence in the new administration no matter who wins, and 43 percent believe the election has created a crisis in the country.

 

But neither candidate is without critics. Forty-nine percent of respondents disapproved of the way Gore is handling the situation, with 40 percent approving and 11 percent undecided. Bush fares slightly better, with 40 percent of the voters disapproving, 41 percent approving and 17 percent undecided.

 

Another Poll Shows Not Many Favor Hand Counts

 

A second online Harris Poll of 6,101 likely voters, conduced Monday and Tuesday, found the electorate does not support the hand counting of ballots only in four heavily Democratic counties.

 

Just 6 percent said the four counties should be hand counted, while 23 percent would hand county those four and any other counties requested by either party. Twenty-nine percent would hand count the entire state. But 40 percent oppose any kind of hand counting — and 72 percent of Republicans supported this position.

 

Even Democratic voters opposed the Democrats’ attempt to count just four counties by hand. While Republicans preferred no additional hand counts, 52 percent would support it if it were applied throughout the state.

 

Voters are divided on Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris’ decision to enforce Florida's statutory requirement for Tuesday's 5 p.m. ballot count deadline and certify the ballots. Forty-nine percent of voters were in favor of the decision, while 43 percent were opposed.

 

Hurting Gore More Than Bush

 

The turmoil is hurting Gore more than Bush. If Gore wins Florida, 42 percent of voters will believe the results have been arrived at fairly, while 56 percent will believe so if Bush wins.

 

In addition, if Gore takes Florida, 47 percent want to recount ballots in other states. If Bush wins, 57 percent would oppose recounts elsewhere.

 

"The Democratic strategy of demanding hand recounts in four heavily Democratic counties is pretty obviously a one-sided solution to the problem of reaching a fair and accurate count for the whole state," Black said. "The Republican strategy, by contrast, of declaring the counting closed is also not well received by many, but it is not as one-sided as the Democratic position."

 

"Because of this, Gore loses more support at this point than Bush," he continued. "Gore might well win the strategic victory, only to lose in the court of public opinion."

 

And not many expect the mess to be figured out soon. Just 20 percent believe it will be settled by Saturday, while 15 percent more said it would be by Thanksgiving and 11 percent by Dec. 1.

[Guest]

quote:

---

Originally posted by MJ:
Source: Online Harris Polls

---

Gee, an online poll, that's not inherently biased, is it?

[Guest]

Martin,

 

Here's a Gore-Florida joke you'll like. It's an Adobe file.

 

http://mldebay.homestead.com/files/votingf...gfordummies.pdf

[Guest]

quote:

---

Originally posted by Gayane:


Martin, why?

---

Gayane,

I think the attitude you are ascribing to is not constructive.

I don't see why is Bush a flake. I also think it is an incorrect approach to elections to vote for someone, to protest someone else. The best protest is not to vote for any one.

We have two candidates. We have a divided House and Senate. We have culturally polarized country. Somebody has to be the President. Who is the best choice, you think?

Protesting is easy. Disliking is also easy. But the governing is really hard, especially in these circumstances.

In a way, I think you and your cousin are responsible for the situation we have at our hands

[Guest]

Martin, why?

[Guest]

quote:

---

Originally posted by MJ:
To me, Bush is the President America needs at this juncture.

---

My post had nothing to do with my opinion as to who should be president. I was strictly talking about the results of the people. The American people obviously do not feel strongly about one or the other, hence the office could go to either.

[Guest]

lol, Martin, I feel like I'm being lectured by daddy dearest...And just like with my father, I'll have to reluctantly agree But if we're going to blame anyone, let's blame my cousin: after all HE voted for Nader...lol

 

(I'm sorry, I know I'm not taking these elections very seriously; it's just that I'm very much disillusioned...that's my official excuse anyway )

[Guest]

No lecturing, Gayane. Just expression of an opinion. Besides, I suspect, I may be considerably younger than your father.

 

I wonder what do you expect from an election, so that not to be disillusioned?

[Guest]

Congress Could Affect

Status of Electors

Friday, November 17, 2000

By Alan Fram

 

WASHINGTON — Under a 19th century law, it would take only a single member from both the House and Senate to try to invalidate Florida's electoral votes if they were cast for Al Gore. A majority of both chambers would be needed to nullify the Florida electoral ballots.

The process has been used once, in 1969, when a pair of lawmakers unsuccessfully challenged a North Carolina electoral vote cast for George Wallace. Among those voting to disallow that electoral ballot were Rep. George Bush, R-Texas, the future president and father of George W. Bush, currently locked in a legal battle with Gore over Florida's 25 electoral votes.

 

While the electoral challenge scenario is unlikely to occur in this year's election, House Republicans have raised it as a possibility as both parties lay the groundwork for what role Congress could play in deciding presidential elections.

 

As political tensions continued to escalate over the crucial Florida vote, top lawmakers from both parties were compiling historical and procedural information about Congress' involvement in the process.

 

Among them were House Majority Whip Tom DeLay, R-Texas, who distributed a two-page memo describing a process by which the House and Senate could vote to reject some or all of a state's electoral votes. His paper mentions no states or candidates by name, and spokesman Jonathan Baron said DeLay "neither expects nor desires this to be decided in the House."

 

Even so, Rep. Martin Frost of Texas, a member of the House Democratic leadership, said he believed the idea was not serious.

 

"There will be a result from Florida, and I can't imagine Congress stepping in there and trying to overturn a decision from any state," Frost said.

 

Under the Constitution, if Florida's votes were invalidated, the House might then decide the presidential election. The vice president's selection might then fall to the Senate, creating the improbable possibility of a president and vice president from different parties.

 

Frost said he was updating a report he had prepared 20 years ago on House procedures for electing a president.

 

Others researching the issue included House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt, D-Mo.; Reps. Bill Thomas of California and Steny Hoyer of Maryland, the chairman and top Democrat, respectively, on the House Administration Committee; Rep. David Price, D-N.C., who is a former political science professor; and Democratic and GOP Senate leaders.

 

In a part of the presidential election process usually ignored, each state's electors — chosen by the voters on Election Day — will meet in their state capitals on Dec. 18 to cast their votes for president. A joint session of the new Congress will convene on Jan. 6 to officially count those ballots.

 

But a law enacted following the disputed 1876 election of Republican Rutherford B. Hayes allows a member of the House and a senator to force a vote on nullifying a state's electoral votes.

 

Many observers think most lawmakers would vote along party lines in such a case, and with some races still incomplete, House Republicans will have a slender majority of about 10 seats in the 435-member chamber next year.

 

It could be tougher for Republicans in the Senate, where a victory by Democratic challenger Maria Cantwell in her still-unfinished Washington state race against incumbent GOP Sen. Slade Gorton would produce a 50-50 split. With Gore as vice president until the new president is sworn in on Jan. 20, he could break a tie if the Senate was voting on whether to reject Florida votes for his presidential candidacy.

 

Unclear, however, is whether it takes a majority of the 538 electors — 270 votes — to elect a president, or a majority of the electoral votes that Congress has allowed. Since knocking out Florida's 25 electoral votes would leave Gore with less than 270 votes but a lead in the rest of the tally, Republicans might argue that 270 votes are needed for anyone to prevail.

 

That could throw the presidential vote to the House, where each state — no matter the size of its congressional delegation — would get one vote. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories could not vote.

 

Republicans will hold a 28-18 edge in state delegations plus four ties, pending a pair of still-undecided races. States with ties could not cast votes.

 

While a partisan split would be expected in each delegation, GOP Rep. Constance Morella of Maryland told The Washington Post that she would consider voting for Gore, who carried her state, though an aide said the process was undecided. The Maryland delegation is divided four-to-four between the two parties.

 

Democrats hold a 17-13 edge in the House delegation from Texas, Bush's home state, and some might struggle over how to vote.

 

Senators would each have one vote in selecting the vice president. Gore could break a tie and deliver the decisive vote for his running mate, Sen. Joseph Lieberman, D-Conn.

[Guest]

In case of a tie vote in Florida, the winner will be decided by drawing lots

 

In New Mexico an election tie can be resolved with a hand of poker, if a judge approves it

 

November 17, 2000

Web posted at: 5:32 p.m. EST (2232 GMT)

 

 

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- When all the legal wrangling in Florida is over and all the ballots are counted, what if Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush receive the same number of votes for president?

 

How to break the tie?

A Florida law offers a decidedly low-tech way out of the dilemma: The winner is determined by drawing lots, or objects of varying sizes.

 

FindLaw Consumer Center Select a topic Bankruptcy Discrimination Divorce Estate Planning Landlord-Tenant Personal Injury Taxes

 

Statute 100.181 says in part: "In case two or more persons receive an equal and highest number of votes for the same office, such persons shall draw lots to determine who shall be elected to the office."

 

"In terms of all the bizarre twists, I would call this the most bizarre," said Johnny Burris, who teaches election law and the Florida Constitution at Nova Southeastern University's law school.

 

He said some local elections have been decided by drawing lots under the statute, passed in 1941, but never a statewide election and certainly not a presidential election in Florida.

 

Notice that the law "doesn't specify how they draw the lots," Burris said. "It could be balls in a hat, you could draw straws."

 

The New Mexico solution

In New Mexico, where the presidential race was also close, the state constitution calls for a game of chance to resolve a tie.

 

And one game of chance is not favored over another, though a judge would have to decide what type of game the candidates would have to play.

 

"Drawing straws. Flipping a coin. Drawing a hand of cards. It doesn't, necessarily, have to be poker. A dice roll. All of those possibilities would probably fit within what our constitution calls a game of chance," said John Dendahl, chairman of the New Mexico Republican Party.

 

CNN Correspondent Greg Lamotte and CNN.com Correspondent Raju Chebium contributed to this report