TURKISH-US RELATIONS EXPERIENCE PRECIPITOUS DECLINE OVER IRA

[Azat]

http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insi...eav032603.shtml

 

Eurasia Insight:

TURKISH-US RELATIONS EXPERIENCE PRECIPITOUS DECLINE OVER IRAQ CONFLICT

Ariel Cohen: 3/26/03

 

Differences over the Iraq conflict are fueling a rapid deterioration in relations between the United States and Turkey. The Bush administration is livid over Ankara’s refusal to grant temporary basing rights for American troops and now is reportedly contemplating punitive political and economic measures against Turkey. Meanwhile, Turkish leaders, angered by the White House’s perceived high-handed behavior, are unapologetic. Bilateral tension could increase in the coming days, as Turkey prepares for possible military action in northern Iraq.

 

The Turkish parliament’s March 1 vote against US basing rights set the current confrontation in motion. [For background information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan publicly supported the proposal to grant US forces the temporary use of Turkish military facilities. Nevertheless, the failure of Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) to solidly support the measure in parliament was a major factor in the measure’s defeat.

 

Following weeks of debate, Ankara finally granted permission for US bombers to use Turkish airspace for strikes against Iraq. However, Turkey maintained its refusal to give US forces access to Turkish air bases and ground facilities. From Washington’s point of view, the Turkish decision offered too little, too late.

 

Bush administration officials privately blame Erdogan for what they view as a debacle, saying he failed to enforce party discipline on the AKP, which dominates the Turkish legislature. Some analysts believe Erdogan’s lack of leadership experience played a significant role in recent developments, which have already resulted in Turkey losing an aid package from Washington worth $6 billion. However, there is also speculation in Washington over whether Erdogan harbors a hidden Islamist agenda. The AKP’s political origins are linked with Islamic activism. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives].

 

In addition, the actions of Turkey’s influential military establishment has left US strategic planners fuming. Many in Washington believe Turkish generals should have brought more pressure to bear on MPs to approve US basing rights. The ensuing controversy, many US policy makers believe, could end up scuttling decades of close military cooperation between the two countries. Indeed, some in Washington say that strategic ties between the two countries could suffer long-term damage.

 

Pentagon planners are now scrambling to readjust tactical and strategic plans concerning northern Iraq. Prior to the March 1 parliament vote, the US attack blueprint called for American troops to move into northern Iraq from Turkish bases. US officials also were counting on Kurdish militia, known as peshmerga, to attack Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein’s military and to assist the US forces in securing northern Iraqi oil fields around Mosul and Kirkuk.

 

At present, Washington is concerned about the possibility of Turkish-Kurdish hostilities. Many Turkish officials are concerned that Kurdish separatists may try to establish an independent state amid the anticipated collapse of Saddam Hussein’s regime. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archives]. Moreover, US military planners reportedly have obtained information about contacts between Iran and Turkey, raising concerns that Tehran and Ankara might attempt to partition Iraqi Kurdistan and secure the oil fields for themselves.

 

The falling out between the Bush administration and Erdogan’s government stands to hurt Turkey far more than the United States, experts in Washington say. The Bush administration appears willing to implement punitive action against Ankara. In the defense sphere, Washington may reduce Turkish participation in US-led ballistic missile defense programs. The Bush administration may also lean on Israel to curb or stop existing military cooperation.

 

In the diplomatic realm, US support for Turkish membership in the European Union is likely to diminish. Washington also will be less likely to side with Turkey against Greek claims in the Aegеan Sea, or on the Cyprus partition issue. In addition, the Bush administration may consider reopening the US debate on recognizing Turkey’s slaughter of Armenians in 1915 as genocide. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

 

In the area of economic cooperation, some US experts believe Washington may reevaluate its commitment to the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. At the very least, the Bush administration will not feel inclined to lend further assistance to Ankara in the event of another economic crisis. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

 

Turkish leaders appear undaunted by the prospects of US retribution. A large share of the country’s political elite believe the Bush administration has acted in an arrogant manner. “I do not find it right that the United States behaved unilaterally before the process in the United Nations Security Council ended,” the Anadolu news agency quoted Turkish President Ahmet Necdet Sezer as saying March 20.

 

Turkish political analysts assert the United States bears a large share of the blame for the crisis in bilateral relations. “What was the United States’ mistake? Actually it made many,” political analyst Taha Akyol wrote in the Milliyet daily March 26. “First of all it was a mistake to even begin this war. Clearly it [the Bush administration] planned it poorly.”

 

The Bush administration “made many blunders in its meetings with Ankara,” Akyol continued. “When Turkey was on the verge of agreeing to a set of terms [to grant US basing rights], the next day the US inexplicably threw these terms out and started again from scratch. As a result a crisis of confidence ensued. What’s more, even our public thinks we handled this issue badly. However, we don’t want anti-US sentiment to take hold in Turkey.”

 

In the coming days, attention will be focusing on possible Turkish action in northern Iraq. Washington has warned the Erdogan government against any unilateral movement of large numbers of Turkish troops into northern Iraq. On March 25, Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul said Ankara sought to cooperate with the United States on northern Iraq, but cautioned that “Turkey will make its own decision on the issue if it thinks there is such a need,” the Anadolu news agency reported.

 

Hilmi Ozkok, the chief of Turkey’s general staff, indicated a small Turkish force has been deployed in northern Iraq primarily as a defensive measure to prevent instability from spilling over into Turkey. Ozkok insisted that Turkish operations were being coordinated with US planners. “All necessary initiatives will be launched to prevent any misunderstandings,” Ozkok told Anadolu, adding that Turkey had no “aim of fighting or occupation” in northern Iraq.

 

Editor’s Note: Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., is a Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies at the Heritage Foundation. He often visits Turkey.

[THOTH]

Mostly just wishful thinking I believe. I think i the comming days/weeks you will see a U.S. aid package to Turkey and support for Turkey...well pay off for Turkey...to stay out of Iraq/Kurdistan...of course we might change our tune of the Iraqis prove more resiliant then expected (which might possibly turn out to be the case). In either event - the powers that be will be working to ensure that nothing substansially changes (except maybe AKP getting booted out!) between the U.S. and Turkish relations. I don't think that AArmenia/Armenians will end up benefiting from this in any way (too bad...)

[khodja]

Winston,

 

Are you unaware that the US is already negotiating with ROA to set up a joint US/Russian military base near Gyumri? The US wants to hedge it's bets, now that it can no longer trust Turkey. Turkey has lost it's sparkle in the eyes of the US establishment. All Turkey has left is it's geopolitical location.

[Stormig]

Are you telling me that all this while the U.S. establishment was doing everything for their love of Turkey and Turks? What it's left with is pretty much all there is to it.

[Guest Fadi]

quote:

---

Originally posted by hagarag:

Winston,

 

Are you unaware that the US is already negotiating with ROA to set up a joint US/Russian military base near Gyumri? The US wants to hedge it's bets, now that it can no longer trust Turkey. Turkey has lost it's sparkle in the eyes of the US establishment. All Turkey has left is it's geopolitical location.

---

Thats bullcrap.

[Sasun]

Why would the US want to do that? There are easier alternatives like Georgia and Azerbaijan. Also, Turks are not stupid to not realize their value and let it slip away to other countries.

[Stormig]

Crux of the matter here is that some things come and go, and some things don't. Bush's administration is not only a screwer, but it is also a screw-up for the country, IMO. It is there one time, it might be there another four years after next election - at the most. Even if Bush & Co. drop Turkey, Turkey offers services few others do, and to pass it because of a screw-up presidency (and more) would make the whole process of American policy stupid. Face it.

[Harut]

i have to use my favorite saying again.

 

"kak srtin mkhitaranq".

[khodja]

You members of this forum have now convinced me that you do not follow the news. Baliozian understands you all to a "T." I consider myself Armenian in genes only, similar to Cher, Peck, Arlen, Jr. with little Armenian consciousness, but alot of knowledge about our history (just like an odar hstorian). Perhaps my post is bullcrap or makes no sense, but this is precisely what the Americans are intending to do. The Turks can no longer be trusted. I also sometimes wonder where Winston is coming from.

[Guest Fadi]

quote:

---

Originally posted by hagarag:

You members of this forum have now convinced me that you do not follow the news. Baliozian understands you all to a "T." I consider myself Armenian in genes only, similar to Cher, Peck, Arlen, Jr. with little Armenian consciousness, but alot of knowledge about our history (just like an odar hstorian). Perhaps my post is bullcrap or makes no sense, but this is precisely what the Americans are intending to do. The Turks can no longer be trusted. I also sometimes wonder where Winston is coming from.

---

Why do you need always to convince yourself that you are an Armenian ? Who made you believe we do not follow the news ? I have seen this allegation in one Armenian newspaper article republished in groong, and that news has not been confirmed since then. If yes, then post the confirmation.

[Sasun]

I believe in the following, this is more realistic. We have more opportunities to loose than to gain, which is not surprising viewed historically. Essentially, that is true for all small countries.

 

[khodja]

That article was not the first discussion of this issue. It has been discussed two times previously in news articles.

 

As for me convincing myself that I am an Armenian, I can only remember my interaction with Peck's young, lovely and blond Armenian second cousin, who was totally assimilated as is 1/4 Armenian Peck, about how the Armenian mind-frame drives us apoplectic.

[khodja]

Perhaps Armenia will find itself in a situation not to it's liking. I am sure that Russia will not abandon it's little brother. As for the US, we have increased our lobbying positioon and the Turkish government has weakened theirs. They still hold some trump cards, but the equation has shifted in our favor.

[khodja]

Who will be the next president of Armenia? Raffi Hovanissian? I suggest we install Ara Baliozian as President for life, so that he can kick some ass, and bring Armenians into the 21st century.

[Guest Fadi]

quote:

---

Originally posted by hagarag:

That article was not the first discussion of this issue. It has been discussed two times previously in news articles.

 

As for me convincing myself that I am an Armenian, I can only remember my interaction with Peck's young, lovely and blond Armenian second cousin, who was totally assimilated as is 1/4 Armenian Peck, about how the Armenian mind-frame drives us apoplectic.

---

Hagarag, I see no one beside you on this board, that always refer to his Armenian blood, this is why I wrote what I wrote, you sound incertain of your Armenianism, why so ?

[khodja]

The affluent members of my family have had our geneology traced back 2,000 years. Giligia nobility, with strains of French, Jew (Bagratuni), and Chinese (Mamikonian), Assyrian. I understand that my blood is mixed.

 

But my problem with Armenians is what sits between their ears. BALIOZIAN RULES!!!!!!!!

[Guest Fadi]

quote:

---

Originally posted by hagarag:

The affluent members of my family have had our geneology traced back 2,000 years. Giligia nobility, with strains of French, Jew (Bagratuni), and Chinese (Mamikonian), Assyrian. I understand that my blood is mixed.

 

But my problem with Armenians is what sits between their ears. BALIOZIAN RULES!!!!!!!!

---

Hagarag, sorry I have no idea of what you are talking about, I wonder what this has to do with the topic, and why you should always bring your family genealogy tree in every discussion.

[khodja]

Domino,

I merely answered the question you directed at me. Are you pursuing word games, eh Domino? Are you pursuing a Levantine approach to our dsicussion?

[Guest Fadi]

quote:

---

Originally posted by hagarag:

Domino,

I merely answered the question you directed at me. Are you pursuing word games, eh Domino? Are you pursuing a Levantine approach to our dsicussion?

---

I asked you a question yes, but you did not answered me, you again brought your blood and your genealogy, you posted exactly the subject for which I asked my question. Never mind, I am bored with this useless discussion.

 

Talk me about your book, are you finishing it ?

 

[ March 27, 2003, 11:28 AM: Message edited by: Domino ]

[Guest Fadi]

/

 

[ March 27, 2003, 11:08 AM: Message edited by: Domino ]

[MosJan]

"Lions" were once thought to magical creatures

 

"Lions" hunt in groups. While one group of "lions" drives the prey to a certain area, another group will wait to ambush the approaching "animals"

 

Using their keen sense of smell, "lions" can tell if "prey" is nearby and even how long ago it was in the area.

 

http://p.vtourist.com/652887.jpg

 

After a "lion" moves on, a certain proportion of the carcass is available to the next level of "predator", which is the hyena. What I would guess is that "hyenas" were scavenging on "lion" "kills"

 

"Lions" rarely eat an entire "kill". "Hyenas" and "vultures" finish the rest.

 

[ March 27, 2003, 12:28 PM: Message edited by: MosJan ]

[lady of grace]

hagarag, how do you know about homos? just chillllll bro. You are too up-tight! Don't forget lion is the king of the jungle. He can do as many times as he wants to. And Leos are the best. what sign are you? Would you consider yourself optimistic or pessimistic?

[lady of grace]

Mos inch asir?

[khodja]

Lady of Grace,

 

I am an optimist. I see an Armenian Renaissance brewing. I am a Libra. Mosjan was speaking about lions, hyenas and vultures. I think that he was speaking of the situation in and around Iraq. As for homosexuals, most are nothing like the lions. If you work in the arts in LA, you get to know them. I was surprised when I found Armenians among them.

[lady of grace]

I'm aware of Mos's comment. thanks!