Ahh~our Russian Freinds

[Z'areh]

ARMENIAN PRESIDENT ACCEPTS RUSSIA'S ULTIMATUM IN EXCHANGE FOR MAINTENANCE OF GAS TARIFF FOR ANOTHER YEAR: "KOMMERSANT"

 

YEREVAN, JANUARY 23. ARMINFO. Armenian President Robert Kocharyan

has accepted Russia's proposal to participate in the construction

of Iran-Armenia gas pipeline in exchange for maintenance of the

price of the Russian gas for another year, the Russian newspaper

"Kommersant" writes.

 

According to the source, at the end of 2005, Moscow unexpectedly for

Yerevan demanded $110 per cubic meter of the gas supplied to Armenia

instead of the former $54. Russia demanded its only strategic partner

in the Transcaucasia to pay the same sum for gas as Georgia. Armenia

was to pay the new price for gas or to pay in terms of the two key

industrial facilities i.e. the fifth power unit of Hrazdan TPP and

the whole gas and transportation system of the country. The ultimatum

took the Armenian authorities unawares. Those in Yerevan hoped that

the active pro-Russian position and the support to all the foreign

political initiatives of the Kremlin will help Armenia avoiding

the fate of other CIS member-states. However, Russia insisted on

market relations in the gas sphere. The new tariff proved to be too

high for the not rich Armenia. President Kocharyan had thought over

the ultimatum for about a month and at last decided to accept the

conditions forced by the Kremlin. A high-ranking official of the

Armenian President's Administration told "Kommersant" that Robert

Kocharyan arrived in Moscow with a project, wherein he proposes

Russia to participate in the construction of Iran-Armenia gas pipeline

(the construction is to be completed in the current year).

 

Factually, Armenia gives Russia the only strategically important

energy facility, the source of guaranteed incomes for future. Due

to this pipeline, Russia will be able to control over transit of the

Iranian gas to Georgia, Ukraine and Europe.

 

In its turn, Armenia began to think about transferring the relations

with Moscow to "market base." Armenian observers think that the only

trump of Robert Kocharyan in "the wrangle" with Moscow is the Russian

military base in Gyumri. At present, Russia pays nothing for the

base, wherein C-300 missiles and fighters MiG-29 are placed within

the framework of CIS United Anti-aircraft System. Armenia pays even

for communal expenses of the base. The Armenian president may demand

payment for the leasing and correct the tariff every year depending

of the amicability level, the newspaper writes.

 

In the meantime, early in the morning on Sunday the gas supply to

Georgia and Armenia was suspended because of explosions of the gas

mains North Caucasus- Transcaucasia and Mozdok-Tbilisi. Gas supply

to Armenia was cut on the very day when President Kocharyan left for

Moscow on negotiations. Moreover, the temperature in Armenia started to

fell sharply. "ArmRosgazprom" tried to calm the population stating that

the reserves of Abovyan gas holder will be enough till restoration of

the pipeline Mozdok-Tbilisi. Nevertheless, the population was called

for economizing. The explosions made Armenia understand how it is to

remain without gas in such a cold winter. The sabotage may influence

the Russian-Armenians talks at the presidents' level, for example,

making Robert Kocharyan more complaint. The results of the talks will

become known already today, the newspaper writes.

[Z'areh]

Our last remaining national treasure "Hrazdan" in return to one year supply of gas at it's original price!

 

Russia trully is a freind and not a friend! that is.... a twisted friend! and we are proving to be powerless to do anything about it...

 

or are we really powerless?

[Verginne]

You have very little understanding of the world geopolitical situation. A strong Russia will mean a strong Armenia.

 

It is imperative that Russia have an energy leverage in order to assert its position in the Caucausus. That necessitates control of the gas and I believe if the argreement is concluded, it will insure cheap gas for Armenia for the next ten years, well below what everyone else is rightly paying.

[Z'areh]

You have very little understanding of the world geopolitical situation. A strong Russia will mean a strong Armenia.

 

It is imperative that Russia have an energy leverage in order to assert its position in the Caucausus. That necessitates control of the gas and I believe if the argreement is concluded, it will insure cheap gas for Armenia for the next ten years, well below what everyone else is rightly paying.

 

 

I have no problem with Russia wanting to assert its position in the Caucasus or anywhere else. I am stating the obvious as how far Armenia is marginalized in Russia eyes. A recent commentary in Hayots Ashkhar put it quite well in stating that Russia treats Armenia the same way as it treats other openly hostile countries. It goes beyond just "price" issue. Russia wants Armenia to be very weak, so weak that they want to see Armenia beg for help which will be provided just enough to help Armenia survive. and from the looks of it it seems they are succeeding.

 

The following says it all;

 

"Armenia, trying to diversify its energy sources, is currently building a pipeline to Iran. Gazprom, however, has insisted the diameter of the pipe be smaller than originally planned -- in order to prevent Armenian from shipping surplus Iranian gas to Georgia."

 

from rferl yesterday.

 

I am very touched that you want to see Russia very strong. My loyalty is to Armenia first and foremost.

[Takoush]

Zareh:

 

Can you substantiate what you said about Russians wanting us to remain weak and totally dependent on them? Till now I naivly thought that they were backing us up as our allies.

[Z'areh]

Zareh:

 

Can you substantiate what you said about Russians wanting us to remain weak and totally dependent on them? Till now I naivly thought that they were backing us up as our allies.

 

Where do you want me to start Anahid, this whole thing about industry-for-debt deal gave Russia almost total control over the industrial infrastructure of Armenia a couple of years ago. Remember Armenia owed Russia $100 million, this debt Russia demanded to be paid as soon as possible (Armenia's debt was nothing compared with the billions of dollars that Syria and Cuba alone owed to Russia which were written off overnight), so five huge enterprises were handed over to Russia (which included the nuclear stations) and now the Hrazdan is up for grabs, also it does not want Armenia to s\trike a deal with Iran without its control.

 

At the time I was told by many that those huge factories were sitting idle, thanks to Russian takeover they will start to provide jobs for thousands of people. Well we now know it did not turn out like that, most of the factories bought by Russia are idle. Not only we don’t own those enterprises anymore, now we have to purchase what those factories produced from….Russia.

 

All this for us to be protected by Russia, so I guess Karabakh war (and the threats Azeris issue periodically) is a convenient tool for Russia to squeeze Armenia to the max. And of course Turkey is there to ensure that we need that protection. It was quite convenient for Russia to be there at our request.

 

The billion-dollar arms that were "given" to Armenia during Yeltsin's time perhaps is the reason why Russia cannot write off the 100 million dollars today. But one should ask an important question: If Russia cannot supply it's strategic ally with the means to protect itself, which in turn Russia becomes the beneficiary by simply having an unlimited access to the South Caucasus, (noting that Georgia and Azerbaijan can never replace Armenia's genuine friendship towards Russia) then what price should Russia pay to enjoy those benefits readily made available by Armenians?

 

Unfortunately it looks like Russia treats Armenia just like it used to treat ASSR. The one-way flow of benefits towards the Kremlin is still in place, it seems.

 

I would like to reserve a final judgment as to where Russia stands as far as Armenia is concerned when the Karabakh issue finally gets resolved. The true picture will emerge only then. Only then we’ll see if Armenia is as important to Russia as we have come to believe for so long.

 

I hope I answered your question.

[kakachik77]

there was no one way flow during the Soviet times. The flows in fact went to different directions (Armenia to Ukraine, Ukraine to Uzbekistan, Russia to Armenia etc etc). A lot of those factories in Armenia were built by "soviet" finances. Armenia on its own could not produce them.

 

It's a game of power, if Europe or US were in place of Russia, they would be acting the same way. I have not seen any of these powers "protecting" any nation out of their sheer good will. Even US involvement in Israel, gives back US more as a way of guaranteeing a secure post in the Middle East for "oil exploration".

[Takoush]

Dear Zareh:

 

Thank you for answering me extensively an genuinely. I appreciate it quite.

 

I don't doubt one minute what you know and how you perceive to see the facts. Frankly, going back to pre-soviet times, even then Russia saw us as one of her provinces and not an entity of our own. I am not surprised; but it is very unfortunate for us because we are very close to her and I hope she doesn't do the same thing as they did right after sovietism; I mean claiming our little country back. And from what you're saying that both Seria and Cuba owe Russia much more, yet she doesn't come out and demand the same as they are doing for us, simply because they're far away. I think that is in their favor, but what about us?

 

One thing I more than agree with you and that is it's the same with all the big powers; the same darn thing. Unless they get something or better, a lot more out of you, they won't give you an inch. I should've known better and not naively thought only the best of Russia. Now I am worried Zareh for our AR. I suppose we'll just wait and see and hope for the best.

[gamavor]

The year 2006 will be the year of the begining of the Armenian-Russian divorce. Since there are no "kids" involved it should be quick, painless and smooth

[Takoush]

The year 2006 will be the year of the begining of the Armenian-Russian divorce. Since there are no "kids" involved it should be quick, painless and smooth

[hytga]

maybe karabak is the kid?

[phantom22]

THE RUSSIAN BEAR HUG

 

The founder of modern Eastern Armenian literature, Khachadour Abovian, wrote in his epoch-making novel Wounds of Armenians, in the early 19th Century: "Blessed be the moment when Russia set foot on our land". This has been a historic political statement for most of the Armenians the last two centuries. Russia has been considered Armenia's defender.

 

But as we take this statement in its historic perspective, it has relative truth in it because Armenia, being located in a most hostile neighborhood, has suffered terribly by developing and declining empires. Turks have always settled their problems with Armenians through sporadic extermination. Persian domination has not been any more favorable; for example, the Persian ruler Shah Abbas tried to depopulate Armenia through forced exodus of Armenians to Persia early in the 17th Century, to establish new communities, especially in the region of New Julfa.

 

Compared to those Moslem powers, the Russian Empire has treated Armenians with relative benevolence, despite such statements, from time to time, that "we want Armenia without Armenians" and despite confiscation of Church property during Khrimian Hayrigs period at Etchmiadzin.

 

During the Soviet era, Armenia benefited tremendously from the Russians, despite well-documented atrocities. The second Republic of Armenia proved to be the golden age of arts and sciences in modern times.

 

After the collapse of the Soviet Union a new political landscape emerged, yet Armenians continued to treat Russia with the same mindset that Abovian had prescribed in the 19th Century.

 

Times have changed and the geostrategic balance of power has shifted to the West. Those changes compel us to view Russian-Armenian relations under more critical scrutiny.

 

Determinants of Russian policy towards "near abroad", and especially towards the Caucasus region have undergone dramatic changes and Russia can no longer provide the protective umbrella, which Armenians believed to have enjoyed since Abovian days.

 

During the Ter Petrossian period, when Armenia tried naively to court Turkey, the punishment was harsh; Russia actively supported Azerbaijan, at the cost of thousands of Armenian lives, also threatening, for a moment, the loss of Karabagh.

 

That was a strong message that we cannot alienate our traditional ally, Russia. Yet that message had a reverse side too, that we cannot take Russia's friendship for granted. A case in point is the recent energy crisis, created artificially by the Kremlin, to flex its economic muscles to dictate behavior to friend and foe.

 

As the Ukraine veered towards the West, the Kremlin doubled its gas price, threatening to cut off energy completely. A temporary relief was granted, although the issue was left to future negotiations. Gas prices were raised from $60 to $90, yet the final asking price is already fixed at $110. The Ukraine has adopted a very hostile policy towards Russia and the Kremlin is responding in kind. However, the conditions set for Ukraine have been applying to Armenia as well, which is very puzzling, to say the least. In this case, Ukraine is paying the price of its hostile policy, but what about Armenia, which happens to be on the other side of the equation as Russia's friend? In this case, it looks like Armenia is paying the price of its weakness.

 

The United States arms and rewards its friends generously, but we have yet to see Russia treat her friends the same way.

 

The Karabagh issue is one of the frozen conflicts on Russia's southern borders. As Armenia's friend, Russia does not apply a preferential treatment. The Kremlin has held Armenia and Azerbaijan at equal distance, although Armenia remains the last bastion of friendship in the Caucasus.

 

To entice former Soviet Republics and other countries, one would think that it is in Russia's best interest to showcase Armenia through economic and political support. We have yet to see that kind of treatment. On the contrary, Russia has been extending its control over Armenia through the exchange of assets for debts.

 

This brings us to the most crucial area of Russian-Armenian relations. A 25-year treaty has been signed between the two countries to maintain Russian military bases in Armenia. It is hard to tell whether those bases serve as a vanguard of Russian military might or they are intended to protect Armenia.

 

The vacillating Russian foreign policy does not inspire too much confidence that Russian bases in Armenia can serve as a deterrent force, in case Armenia's security is jeopardized or its territorial integrity is threatened.

 

Armenia has developed a complementary foreign policy that leaves its options open. That policy has to question Armenians' conventional wisdom and has to raise serious questions about Russian plans or intentions to protect Armenia in case of a crisis.

 

Fortunately, Armenians have come a long way from Abovian's days. Recently a history professor visiting the U.S. from Armenia made a sobering statement: "Let us love Russia, only from a distance". This could also be considered as a fair evaluation of the Russian Bear Hug.

 

The Armenian Mirror Spectator editorial

[Takoush]

Why should we pay the same price as the Ukraine's when they were hostile but not Armenia?

I hate to see Armenia being kicked and stepped over just because she is very close supposedly to the Russian allies.

 

I agree with most of the arguments put forth by the Editor of the Mirror Spectator. Lest Russia look upon us as a weakling and is already taking advantage of us because of it.

 

Perhaps we can ask Kirkorian to come up with $50 Million and the rest of us in the diaspora to raise the other 50 M to distance and free ourselves from our neighbor but not so neighborly Russia.

[Aaron]

Armenia and Russia are related by thousands of ways and the gas issue is definitely not enough to end this relation. It is obvious that russia is not really interested in a strong Armenia, that it could behave better... after all we are allies right? the strengthening of one is also good for the other! Also let's remember that we only hear official news, russia is not so stupid as to disgust armenians totally, I'm sure there are other factors we're not aware of that kocharian has considered. Moreover, we don't really have a choice now. We can't ask them to leave the military base, Turkey would be delighted in that case.

 

We are dependent on Russia and that's that, whether we like it or not. Could we really expect that a landlocked country surrounded by hostile or unstable neighbours with ~85% of its borders closed, going through a transition from communim to liberal economy with all associated consequences and still unofficially at war against a stronger opponent would dictate its will to a G8 country? The question is rhetorical!

 

After all, if you read one of kocharian's interview's in 1995 or 1996 (back when he was in karabagh) he answered a question on the possibility of Russia recognizing karabagh independence. He said something like: "Russia can never recognize karabagh because it has dozens of karabaghs inside its own federetion (look at chechenya), our only hope is on Armenia and the diaspora". Basically, he always knew, and probably still knows, the limit to which Russia can be trusted.

 

A.

[Takoush]

That's right Aaron, Russia cannot be trusted fully. I still believe and wish for yes a liberal economy if we can have it. Why not? We have much wealthy people in the diaspora and if they can put together only some of their wealth they can buy, yes even buy Armenia for the sake of Armenia.

 

It's not very easy to depart from Russia completely because of our very hostile neighbors, excluding Iran of course; but frankly no one can be fully trusted, everyone knows that. And a bit of distance wouldn't harm.

Edited February 5, 2006 by Anahid Takouhi

[Verginne]

Only the USians, turks and zionists are interested in a weak Armenia. Armenia is strategically located and has its own leverage with Russia and I trust the relationship will continue despite those who wish to put her at the mercy of her enemies. Russia's enemies are Armenia's enemies. Edited February 17, 2006 by Verginne

[Z'areh]

Russia's enemies are Armenia's enemies.

 

 

Russia's friends are not Armenia's friends.

 

 

Russophiles who are content with turning Armenia into an obedient political dog harm the interests of Armenia. Moscow should have no say in what the diameter of the gas pipeline from Iran should be.

[phantom22]

Russia wants Armenia to remain an "obedient wife." There are even forces in Russia (and sadly in Armenia) who want "enosis" of Armenia with Russia. Russia is taking advantage of Armenia's difficulties.

 

Friendship does not mean capitulation. Armenai should continue to triangulate its ties to Russia with those of the US and the EU. I wonder what wil happen after the US invades Iran and establishes a pro-Western regime there? This is imminent.

 

 

 

Only the USians, turks and zionists are interested in a weak Armenia. Armenia is strategically located and has its own leverage with Russia and I trust the relationship will continue despite those who wish to put her at the mercy of her enemies. Russia's enemies are Armenia's enemies.

[skhara]

Russia wants Armenia to remain an "obedient wife." There are even forces in Russia (and sadly in Armenia) who want "enosis" of Armenia with Russia. Russia is taking advantage of Armenia's difficulties.

 

I have never heard of such an "enosis". The only thing I have heard about this is, in the sphere of defence, and economics not a suspension of sovereignty.

 

Armenai should continue to triangulate its ties to Russia with those of the US and the EU.

 

Agreed, and it is precisely her skillfull triangulation that has kept her afloat. Except that both Yerevan and Washington know that their interests in the Caucasus are diametrically opposed, hence both sides "diplomatic talk" is nothing more than political lip service.

 

I wonder what wil happen after the US invades Iran and establishes a pro-Western regime there? This is imminent.

 

Is "pro-Western" a code word for "pro-Jew"? Lets get our defenitions of "West" straight shall we? Western civilization is also called Occidental civilisation. This includes Russia, as Russia is clearly an occidental civilization. This includes Armenia, although Armenia is very unique in having elements of both west and east having been a buffer between Rome and Parthia. Jews are not, and have never been part of the occidental civilization. Hence there is a new defenition of the so-called "West".

 

And the formula of this so-called "West" is the following:

 

Occidental civilisation + Jews - Orthodox Christian world = "West"

 

Oh and as far as what would happen if your zionist buddies install a pro-"westerner" in Iran, well here is a likely scenerio:

 

This pro-"Westerner" will work within the framework of zionist interests in the Caucasus. These zionists will be "frustrated" at the lack of progress over the Nagorno-Karabakh "peace-settlement", so something would have to give.

 

Most of you already know of the IDF food rations among Azeri POWs. Most of you allready know of the recent delegation of Jews visiting Azerbaijan, and declaring a "toleran nation where Jews and other minorities leave in peace and properity." So take a guess at what will have to give within their framework.

 

God-forbid, your zionist buddies are ever successful when it comes to Iran. If that were to happen, I would not be typing "I told you so" here on hyeforum for my thoughts would be elsewhere.

[phantom22]

I have never heard of such an "enosis". The only thing I have heard about this is, in the sphere of defence, and economics not a suspension of sovereignty.

 

Skhara, This was bandied about a few years ago by Russophile forces in Armenia. I clearly remember being disgusted by the thought.

 

 

Is "pro-Western" a code word for "pro-Jew"? Lets get our definitions of "West" straight shall we? Western civilization is also called Occidental civilisation. This includes Russia, as Russia is clearly an occidental civilization. This includes Armenia, although Armenia is very unique in having elements of both west and east having been a buffer between Rome and Parthia. Jews are not, and have never been part of the occidental civilization. Hence there is a new defenition of the so-called "West".

 

The Jews of today are overwhelmingly part of occidental civilization. The majority of Jews have lived in the West for many centuries. Sephardic and Oriental Jews constitute a minority of World Jewry.

 

And the formula of this so-called "West" is the following:

 

Occidental civilisation + Jews - Orthodox Christian world = "West"

 

Oh and as far as what would happen if your zionist buddies install a pro-"westerner" in Iran, well here is a likely scenerio:

 

This pro-"Westerner" will work within the framework of zionist interests in the Caucasus. These zionists will be "frustrated" at the lack of progress over the Nagorno-Karabakh "peace-settlement", so something would have to give.

 

Most of you already know of the IDF food rations among Azeri POWs. Most of you allready know of the recent delegation of Jews visiting Azerbaijan, and declaring a "tolerant nation where Jews and other minorities leave in peace and properity." So take a guess at what will have to give within their framework.

 

The equation can change suddenly. Have you not read the repercussions of Ankara's meeting last Thursday with the leaders of Hamas? Soon Armenia may find itself in the Zionist camp. Why do you think that Israel is making overtures toward Armenia in the last few months? Also, the situation in Iran may drastically change suddenly

 

God-forbid, your zionist buddies are ever successful when it comes to Iran. If that were to happen, I would not be typing "I told you so" here on hyeforum for my thoughts would be elsewhere.

 

Your biggest nightmare will soon come to pass. The US will be setting up a regime in Iran, just like they did with the Shah after they undermined Mossadegh.

[skhara]

Skhara, This was bandied about a few years ago by Russophile forces in Armenia. I clearly remember being disgusted by the thought.

 

Well I'm pro-Russia. Not necessarily pro-Putin though. And I'd agree with Z'areh on the pipeline. Not only that, Armenia should be actively finding ways in which she can blackmail Russia,

 

The Jews of today are overwhelmingly part of occidental civilization. The majority of Jews have lived in the West for many centuries. Sephardic and Oriental Jews constitute a minority of World Jewry.

 

Umm.... The Jews living in the Occidental civilization have been in a perpetual state of war with the occidental civilisation. Let me repeat myself, Jews are not, and have never been part of the Occidental civilization. A race cannot just join this civilisation. It has already been formed through the humun history Hence the active creation of the "West".

 

 

The equation can change suddenly.

 

Wow, guess what? I agree with you if you are talking about the equation I presented where the final outcome is a so-called "west". You can change it by adding or subtracting whatever variables you feel like. But the variables of this equation do not change. And the Occidental civilisation is one such variable.

 

Have you not read the repercussions of Ankara's meeting last Thursday with the leaders of Hamas?

 

What is your point? Russia met with leaders of Hamas. Hamas has been democractically elected by the Palestinian people and Hamas is their representative. Armenia would meet with Hamas too if she deems it necessary for some reason. There are no "repercussions" to the Turk-Jew partnership. Although feel free to point out what those "repercussions" are, this way I have a chance at challenging, and debunking your idea.

 

Soon Armenia may find itself in the Zionist camp.

 

Well if you were king of Armenia she would already be in the Zionist camp. She would be opposed to Russia and to the so-called evil "Islamofascists" of Iran. She would sign a declaration to the entire world that she fully and completely recognises the territorial integrity of Turkey as is and she fully and completely recognises the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan as is. To Artsakh would come turkish "peacekeepers" to resettle the Azeris. Armenia would become a Turkic sh*thole and be to totaly and completely vulnerable to turds politically, militarially, demographically, and economically. Where am I wrong?

 

Why do you think that Israel is making overtures toward Armenia in the last few months? Also, the situation in Iran may drastically change suddenly

 

What overtures. Armenia is the only anti-Zonist obstacle in the South Caucasus, hence their "overtures". They make many more "overtures" towards Azerbaijan from the news I read.

 

Your biggest nightmare will soon come to pass.

 

It is not "my" nightmare. If it comes to pass, it will be a national nightmare.

 

What is with you and constantly trying to put Armenia in bed with zionists?

Edited February 19, 2006 by skhara

[Verginne]

Soon Armenia may find itself in the Zionist camp

 

Ridiculous. The only thing you care about is israel even if it means the end of Armenia.