MJ

Various organizational philosophies explained in "two cow" terms. Socialism: You have two cows. You keep one and give one to your neighbor. Communism: You have two cows. The government takes them both and provides you with milk. Fascism: You have two cows. The government takes them and sells you the milk. Bureaucracy: You have two cows. The government takes them both, shoots one, milks the other, pays you for the milk, and then pours it down the drain. Capitalism: You have two cows. You sell one and buy a bull. Corporate: You have two cows. You sell one, force the other to produce the milk of four cows and then act surprised when it drops dead. Democratic: You have two cows. The government taxes you to the point that you must sell them both in order to support a man in a foreign country who has only one cow which was a gift from your government.

Art? Have you been reading the history of Armenian nation or some other nation?

When talking about the net effect of the Church, we have to net it throughout its 1700 years of existence, I think. I have no problems with recognizing the positive deeds of the Armenian Church, whatever those may be. However, I have problems parroting the old (and false) cliches about the overwhelmingly positive role of the Armenian Church throughout our history. For centuries, the institution of the Armenian Church has been as disgraceful as any Church has reputation for in any country. But it appears to me that only we don’t have the courage to look at the facts, recognize them, and move on (maybe Greeks are like this, too).

BTac, In general, the Christian Church claims that there is no contradiction between the Evolution Theory and the Bible. I am aware of only some Christian Fundamentalists claiming the opposite – in particular those in Kansas. Before one can make a decision on the way the Bible has to be interpreted – literally or figuratively, it is important to understand the sources of the Bible. It is customary to claim that the writing of the Bible is directly inspired by God. OK. Let’s accept it. But then, we know that there are many more scriptures written by other Biblical personages, among them Apostles, and by many Disciples of Apostles, which are not a part of the canonical Old and New Testaments. The canonization of different scriptures in the Book is attributed to the Nickean Council, and the subsequent Councils, and these decisions are made on the basis of authoritarianism. Check, for example, our own “Theology” category for appropriate materials and references. Whether all of these scriptures should have been part of the Bible, or whether everything that had to be a part of it is included in the Bible is a subject of an ongoing dispute up to our days. And the thing is, that there are a lot of contradictions between different scriptures, and the image of Jesus Christ himself is different in different scriptures. As a result, it would be really hard to even make that judgment call as what has to be interpreted literally or figuratively, and how.

BTac, I think it is best when politicians do politics, social institutions serve nation’s social needs, and the priests provide spiritual leadership. When these functions are mixed, then we get what we have today. About “terms of unifying diasporan Armenians and connecting them to the homeland.” The fact is, as you recognize it, too, it has not happened. In fact the Church has not unified the people, but it has divided them even further. And the concept of homeland is as abstract for most of the Diaspora as it has ever been. Obviously, nobody explicitly wishes ill to the nation or the homeland. Everybody wishes well in his/her own understanding. But the thing is that just wishing well doesn’t do it good. And saying that someone wishes well doesn’t do it, either. The wishes don’t matter much. The actions do.

BTac, Just the fact of the division of the Armenian Church is not a problem itself. It is rather the reflection of an existing problem. Additionally, the existance of two Catholicosates, in my view, is the least of our problems. There are many nations with multireligous background, where the Christians and Muslims, or Christians of different denominations coexist peacfully. I think our problems are deaper than the existance of two Catholocosates. I think the primary problem of the Armenian Church is the fact of its being a social and political institution, rather than spiritual. Additionally, the problem is its lack of adequate training of the clergy, the absence of missionary function, etc. Now that the can is open, let's see how we deal with the worms.

quote:Originally posted by TigrannesIII: i dunno about that, some of the people being corrupt doesn't make it all corrupt. but the catholics have a long list of dirty laundry, from making up purgatory, moving Christmas, etc. So some of the catholics being corrupt makes their entire church corrupt, but some of the apostolic-orthodoxes being corrupt doesn't make them so, right? And don't the apostolic-orthodoxes have a list of dirty laundary?

Don't flatter yourself.

I think it is the time that you try to restrain the rage of your hormones, first. Second, it is your prerogative to try to prove yourself whatever you need to prove so that to validate your persona in your eyes. But you can do it privately. You just would be better off. Additionally, I find that the dilatants with initiative are worse than the dilatants in general. And I would advise you to try to take a better care of your neck, dude.

Berj, We are talking in such general terms that I don't even know if we are arguing or agreeing with each other.

Berj, Of coarse it is. But in our case, it turns to be based not on clalculations, but on the lack of professionalism and on a fake patriotic pathos.

THE TIP Grandpa and Grandma were visiting the kids overnight when Grandpa found a bottle of sorryyyyy in his son's medicine cabinet. He asked the son about using one of the pills and the son said, "I don't think you should take one; they're very strong and very expensive." "How much?" asked Grandpa. "$10.00 a pill," answered the son. "I don't care" said Grandpa, "I'd like to try one and I'll leave the money under your pillow as soon as I break this $50.00 bill." The next morning the son found $110.00 under his pillow. He said to Grandpa "I told you each pill was $10.00, not $110.00." "I know" said Grandpa, the extra hundred is from Grandma."

NEW DRUGS FOR MEN With sorryyyyy being such a great medical success for increasing men's sexual prowess, Pfizer is bringing forth a whole line of drugs oriented towards improving the performance of men in today's society. Here are a few of the new ones: DIRECTRA - a dose of this drug given to men before leaving on car trips caused 72 percent of them to stop and ask directions when they got lost, compared to a control group of 0.2 percent. PROJECTRA - Men given this experimental new drug were far more likely to actually finish a household repair project before starting a new one. COMPLIMENTRA - In clinical trials, 82 percent of middle-aged men administered this drug noticed that their wives had a new hairstyle. Currently being tested to see if its effects extend to noticing new clothing. BUYAGRA - Married and otherwise attached men reported a sudden urge to buy their sweeties expensive jewellery and gifts after taking this drug for only two days. Still to be seen: whether the drug can be continued for a period longer than your favorite store's return limit. NEGA-sorryyyyy - Has the exact opposite effect of sorryyyyy. Currently undergoing clinical trials on sitting U.S. presidents. NEGA-SPORTAGRA - This drug had the strange effect of making men want to turn off televised sports and actually converse with other family members. FLATULAGRA - This complex drug converts men's noxious intestinal gases back into food solids. Special bonus: Dosage can be doubled for long car rides. FLYAGRA - This drug has been showing great promise in treating men with O.F.D. (Open Fly Disorder). Especially useful for men on sorryyyyy. PRYAGRA - About to fail its clinical trial, this drug gave men in the test group an irresistible urge to dig into the personal affairs of other people. Note: Apparent overdose turned three test subjects into "special prosecutors." LIAGRA - This drug causes men to be less than truthful when being asked about their sexual affairs. Will be available in Regular, Grand Jury and Presidential Strength versions.

Declaration The meeting of the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, which is soon to be held at the initiative of the US Secretary of State Colin Powell, attests to the fact that negotiation processes over the Artsakh Issue have entered a new and decisive phase. Hence, it is important that our People demonstrate its prudence and consistency at each stage of these negotiations. Greatly appreciating both the continuing efforts of the two Presidents to find a peaceful resolution, as well as the steps taken in this regard by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chair states, the A.R.F. Dashnaktsutyun finds it imperative that the following principles be adopted during the ensuing negotiations: a) Any agreement aiming at the resolution of the Artsakh Issue must recognize the unification of Artsakh with Armenia, or, at a minimum, the independence of Artsakh. The process of resolving the Artsakh Issue must not be led by artificial deadlines imposed by outside forces, for a so-called "immediate" resolution. c) The delineation of the borders of Artsakh should be guided by principles of historical rights and guarantees of the real, namely by the geographical and territorial security of Artsakh and Armenia. The return of the occupied areas of the Shahumyan region, the Gedashen sub-region, the plains of Martakert, the Noyeberyan and Tavush regions is not negotiable. The Armenia-Artsakh geographical connection must be militarily impenetrable and must therefore extend the entire length of the border. d) Any possible communication between Nakhitchevan and Azerbaijan cannot be realized at the expense of the territorial integrity, sovereignty and national security of Armenia. f) Turkey cannot be considered as a negotiating party during the negotiations over the Artsakh Issue. Moreover, Turkey cannot act as an arbitrator in these processes, as it has explicitly allied itself with Azerbaijan from the very start of the Issue. g) And finally, it is important that during the negotiations to be held on United States territory, the US State Department remain meticulously unbiased and refrain from the temptation of interfering in favor of Azerbaijan. Taking into consideration the pan-Armenian nature and national importance of the Artsakh Issue, it is imperative that from here onward the authorities of the Republic of Armenia examine the Issue jointly with all the political forces of Armenia and Artsakh. ARF Bureau 20 March 2001 Yerevan [ April 22, 2001: Message edited by: MJ ]

Sorry for not replying, guys. I had some serious technical problems, and things have piled up on my desk, now. Will get back to you, hopefully, later today.

A HELPING HAND One day, farmer Williams was in town picking up supplies for his farm. He stopped by the hardware store and picked up a bucket and an anvil. Then, he stopped by the livestock dealer to buy a couple of chickens and a goose. However, he now had a problem, how to carry all of his purchases home? The livestock dealer said: "Why don't you put the anvil in the bucket, carry the bucket in one hand, put a chicken under each arm and carry the goose in your other hand?" "Hey, thanks!" the farmer said, and off he went. While walking he met a little old lady who told him she was lost. She asked: "Can you tell me how to get to 123 Township Road?" The farmer said: "Well, as a matter of fact, I live at 132 Township Road. Let's take my short cut and go down this alley. We'll be there in no time" The little old lady said: "How do I know that when we get in the alley you won't hold me up against the wall, pull up my skirt, and ravish me?" The farmer said: "Holy smokes lady, I am carrying a bucket, an anvil, two chickens, and a goose. How in the world could I possibly hold you up against the wall and do that?" The lady said: "Set the goose down, cover him with the bucket, put the anvil on top of the bucket, and I'll hold the chickens." --Submitted by Bill Watson, Pinehurst, NC

HOT FOR TEACHER A young female teacher was giving an assignment to her 6th grade class one day. It was a large assignment so she started writing high up on the chalkboard. Suddenly there was a giggle from one of the boys in the class. She quickly turned and asked, "What's so funny,Pat?" "I just saw one of your garters!" "Get out of my classroom," she yells, "I don't want to see you for three days!" The teacher turns back to the chalkboard. Realizing she had forgotten to title the assignment, she reaches to the very top of the chalkboard. Suddenly there is an even louder giggle from another male student. She quickly turns and asks, "What's so funny, Billy?" "I just saw both of your garters!" Again, she yells, "Get out of my classroom! This time the punishment is more severe, I don't want to see you for three weeks!" Embarrassed and frustrated, she drops the eraser when she turns around again. So she bends over to pick it up. This time there is an burst of laughter from another male student. She quickly turns to see Little Johnny leaving the classroom. "Where do you think you're going?" she asks. "From what I just saw, my school days are over!"

quote:Originally posted by Anna: Can you explain it, Anna?

quote:Originally posted by alpha: All the talk about Azeri economic superiority is just a facade to cover up the rotten nature of their whole economy. ... Which means that having oil is not necessarily a fortune, but it may also be misfortune...

SURVEY - AZERBAIJAN: An oasis of wealth Many ethnic groups have fled, taking with them much of the city's character Financial Times; Nov 22, 2000 By DAVID STERN BAKU by David Stern In the most recent James Bond instalment, The World is Not Enough, 007 Bond, played by Pierce Brosnan, travels to Baku to protect an oil magnate's daughter. There he finds a place probably not very unlike what he is used to in Monte Carlo: casinos, beautiful women and lots of bad guys bent on controlling the world's oil supplies. And lots of caviar. It's all a good yarn, but reality is a bit different, of course. Baku's casinos were closed in 1998 as part of a morals campaign. So far the pipeline which Mr Bond was sent to defend has yet to begin construction. And the caviar factory located in the middle of the Caspian, where Pierce and Sophie Marceau escape a very fishy death, does not exist. But, in a sense, the Bond film could be seen to mirror a greater reality — one in which the Azeri capital provides a glittering façade behind which the country's greater ethnic and economic realities are hidden. Baku, for all its poverty today, is an oasis of wealth for the rest of the country. Outside the capital live around 6m Azerbaijanis, who can only look enviously onto the smart cafes and boutiques of Fountain Square, the city's main gathering point and promenade. Business, politics and culture are all concentrated there, while most people living in the countryside are limited to a few hours of electricity per winter day. The division between the capital and provinces is more than just economic or cultural — it is linguistic as well. Azeri, a Turkic language, dominates in the provinces, whereas in Baku it is not uncommon to find native Azerbaijanis who speak only Russian. The division to a large degree is a product of the Soviet era Natives of Baku like to describe to visitors a golden age, when a cosmopolitan, multi-ethnic metropolis thrived on the shores of the Caspian and Russian was the lingua franca. Azeris, Georgians, Armenians, Russian, Jews and the whole array of Caucasus nationalities all supposedly lived in harmony there once. "The city was better then. We all used to travel and live together. No one paid any attention to who was Azeri or who was Armenian. Today it is much worse, much poorer," says Larissa Buyantseva, a local writer. The post-Soviet era has been tough on the city, however. Economic hardship and conflict have driven away many of the ethnic groups that gave Baku its distinctive flavour. Refugees from the Artsax war, as well as labourers from the provinces, have flooded in, looking for work The infrastructure has deteriorated, while corruption has flourished. But there are also signs of rejuvenation. Today the city is crawling with oilmen. Although the boom that was promised a few years ago has still failed to materialise, most of the petroleum multinationals are still in Baku, albeit in a reduced form. Thanks in part to the foreign oilmen, the city is reclaiming some of its multicultural identity. Scots, Italians and Turks have replaced Russians, Armenians and Jews. And the Azerbaijanis show a new-found national pride, turning Baku into much more of an Azeri capital than ever before. Baku has maintained much of its turn-of-the-century charm. Mansions built by the Rothschilds, the Nobels and various Azeri oil barons still stand in the city centre. The mansard roofs and carved stone doorways and awnings give the place an almost Parisian feel. Even if the casinos are no longer open, the city still boasts its share of restaurants, cafes and discotheques. The oil money has found its way to at least small part of the Azeri population, who seem intent on matching their western counterparts in enjoying the finer things in life. But there are warning signs that some of Baku's charm could be lost forever. The city's cultural heart — its medieval walled old city, the Icheri Sheher — is gradually being destroyed for its prime real estate. Walking through the winding alleyways and narrow streets of the quarter, some parts which date from the 15th century, one feels almost in another world entirely. Old men sip tea and play dominoes under fig trees in secluded squares. Children play in cobble-stoned alleyways, while mothers sit and gossip in front of carved doorways or in back courtyards. The wail of the muezzin breaks the afternoon quiet. Slowly but surely, however, the old quarter is being reduced. Newly-built embassies now stand on top of archaeological sites, experts say. Some western businesses have restored the quarter's mansions, but just as many buildings have been razed. Perhaps in time, if an oil boom does occur, residents of Baku will realise what they have lost and somehow be able to regain it. Copyright: The Financial Times Limited http://globalarchive.ft.com/globalarchive/...itle=Azerbaijan

SURVEY - AZERBAIJAN: Link still in the pipeline Plans for oil supply are still being dogged by suspicions and counter-proposals Financial Times; Nov 22, 2000 By ROBERT CORZINE BTC PROJECT by Robert Corzine The proposed oil pipeline between Baku in Azerbaijan and Ceyhan on Turkey's Mediterranean coast has become the focus of a fascinating strategic and business battle. To some, such as the US government, it is as much a geo-political concept as a physical project. But that vision of the pipeline underpinning the political independence of the former Soviet republics of the region has sparked opposition from some big international oil companies. They view Washington's interest as a clear case of political interference in the commercial affairs of private enterprise. US involvement in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline (BTC) has also aroused the suspicions of those countries which are competing with Turkey to become the main oil export conduit from the Caspian Sea region, such as Iran and Russia. John Wolf, the outgoing US State Department official who has spearheaded Washington's efforts to breathe life into perhaps the world's most talked about "paper pipeline", admits that the definitive economic case for ETC has yet to be made. But he argues that substantial progress has been made over the past 18 months. "Eighteen months ago nobody thought ETC would be a reality," he says. "No investor would step forward. But the creation of a sponsor s group and the commitment by the companies in that group to spend Dollars 120m on basic engineering is a pretty visible start." Mr Wolf has described BTC as a "very complicated and unusual project". Those sentiments would no doubt be echoed by the oil companies which are studying various options for exporting oil from the Caspian. Over the next few years a series of studies, both technical and financial, will help define whether BTC becomes the reality that the US hopes for, or whether it will retain its "paper" status. Basic engineering will take about eight months, after which the companies involved will have to decide whether to proceed with a 12-month period devoted to detailed engineering. At that point additional investors may be invited to join the consortium. It will also be the deadline for initial volume commitments, one of the most contentious issue to have emerged in recent years, with some companies arguing that insufficient oil has been found so far in Azerbaijan to justify the multi-billion dollar scheme. American officials have been pressing oil companies operating in Kazakhstan to make early commitments to ship oil across the Caspian Sea to ensure that adequate volumes are available when the decision to go ahead with detailed engineering is taken. "The long-term economics and vision can only be fulfilled with Kazakhstan," says Mr Wolf. "There are economically valid reasons for Kazakhstan to participate. There are producers in western Kazakhstan who want a western route." Although the Kazakh government signed the Istanbul Declaration in 1998 which commits the signatories (Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, and Kazakhstan) to take all steps to promote the BTC option, Kazakh government officials have recently appeared lukewarm to the proposal. They talk instead about the viability of a pipeline to Iran, a project which Washington opposes strongly. Senior western diplomats in Almaty argue that too much oil already moves through the Straits of Hormuz. They claim that the world is dangerously dependent on a waterway that could easily be disrupted by regional rivalries, and that a western route from the Caspian is needed on security of supply grounds. BP, the British-based energy group that operates the offshore fields from which the oil for the pipeline will be produced, says it is proceeding on the basis that "BTC will be a reality", even though it is also studying alternatives, including swaps with Iran and the viability of the northern route through Russia. "If the volumes are there then we see BTC as the best option," says a BP spokesman in Baku. In recent years Turkey, the ultimate destination for the pipeline, has been suspicious of BP's intentions about BTC. In recent months Turkish officials have made it clear that they intend to link construction of the oil pipeline — estimated to cost at least Dollars 2.7bn — with that of a natural gas pipeline to Turkey from BP's giant Shah Deniz field in Azerbaijan. BP rejects suggestions that the two pipelines are inter-linked. "We want a gas sales agreement (with Turkey) whenever we can get it," says a spokesman. "We want to do business with Turkey." BP officials acknowledge that certain efficiencies and benefits could flow from working on both pipelines at the same time, especially when it comes to land acquisition and the sharing of support facilities. But they insist that the two projects should not become merged as a single entity, and that the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan option will stand or fall on economic grounds only. Copyright: The Financial Times Limited http://globalarchive.ft.com/globalarchive/...itle=Azerbaijan

SURVEY - AZERBAIJAN: Entrepreneurs face formidable barriers: DOING BUSINESS by Robert Corzine: Corruption and an inconsistent legal system top the list Financial Times; Nov 22, 2000 By ROBERT CORZINE Azerbaijan has proved to be a minefield for many foreign companies trying to establish operations in the country. A combination of a lack of transparency, an inconsistent legal system and widespread corruption have produced what many foreigners say is "an extremely hostile place to invest". But that hostility has not prevented some foreign companies from taking the plunge, even though one local Azeri businessman voiced an especially jaded view of such efforts in the non-oil sector: "A person who is smart puts his money in some British or Swiss bank. A smart person does not invest in Azerbaijan." The big international oil companies have certainly invested considerable amounts in Azerbaijan, but those investments have been ring-fenced through production-sharing agreements signed with the government. The personal involvement and interests of President Heydar Aliyed and the strategic importance of the big oil companies to Azerbajan's future economic and political stability have made them more or less immune to the difficulties of everyday business life experienced by smaller companies. It is companies in the non-oil sector in particular which have struggled to overcome the obstacles entrenched in the Azeri business system, as the high level of political protection offered as a matter of routine to the oil companies is noticeably absent. Azeri and foreign businessmen say the business environment suffers from a number of ills. These include: * Exceptionally low pay levels - in some cases only Dollars 30 to Dollars 40 a month - for civil servants act as an incentive and encouragement for corruption and harassment of the private sector. "This breeds the need to augment income any way they can," says one long-term western businessman in Baku. An international banker in Baku notes: "Costs of formality are very high. Once you have a formal company you attract a lot of inspectors. * A lack of transparency and clarity in the legal system leaves too much scope for individual civil servants to interpret the law and regulations as they see fit, complains a local businessman. "All those people pay for their jobs, so they wont stick their neck out until they get their money back," says a diplomat who has lobbied the Azeri government to improve the situation. "A lot of small companies can't do a lot of things legally. They make unintentional mistakes and then get crucified by the government." * The old Soviet-era mentality of suspicion still pervades certain government agencies, including the tax authorities. One foreign businessmen describes how that suspicion operates in every day life: "They look at every piece of paper, so they are bound to find something." * Centralisation of real power in the presidency has led to avoidance of decision-making at lower governmental levels. "There's only one person who can make a decision of any importance, and that's President Aliyev, says a senior diplomat. But the unwillingness of officials lower down the government chain to stick their necks out means that even relatively minor matters can filter up to the president. But not all foreign businessmen tell the tale of constant woe. Some have identified niches which do not seem to attract the same type of attention by the authorities. And even some of those who have endured constant battles with the authorities do not have entirely negative views about Azerbajan. A spokesman for one company that has failed after repeated attempts to establish a significant business position in Azerbaijan - largely because of difficulties with a deeply flawed privatisation process - says: "This is definitely an oil country with a future. And it's a young country that is bound to make a few mistakes." One European businessman has targeted such niche areas, especially in the agricultural sector, where the government has emphasised the importance of foreign investment to boost employment prospects in the countryside. Some businessmen and diplomats say every aircraft that brings oil-related equipment to Azerbaijan from Europe should return fully laden with Azeri agricultural products. But in some agricultural areas farmers are tied to existing agro-processors through a complex series of credits and debts, thus limiting their freedom to supply new entrants or diversify their products. Copyright: The Financial Times Limited http://globalarchive.ft.com/globalarchive/...itle=Azerbaijan

SURVEY - AZERBAIJAN: Oil strategy can change nation: Political uncertainties weigh heavy on the minds of companies which can pluck this country from its poverty, write Stefan Wagstyl and David Stern Financial Times; Nov 22, 2000 By DAVID STERN and STEFAN WAGSTYL The next few years will determine whether Azerbaijan, the poorest country in Europe, will join the ranks of the oil-rich. In that time, the international oil companies which have flocked to Baku will go a long way towards establishing how much of the potential mineral wealth can be converted into proven reserves and hard cash. And Azeris, led by their 77-year-old autocratic president, Heydar Aliyev, will determine how that money will change Azerbaijan. Today, oil industry executives think there is enough oil and gas to turn Azerbaijan into an important energy supplier, even if the Caspian Sea may not become the next Arabian Gulf. But there are still great uncertainties about whether Azerbaijan will use the revenues wisely. The omens are mixed. Many countries have mis-spent their oil money through the corruption of their leaders. Far fewer have used their profits to benefit most of their citizens. President Aliyev pledges: "As a result of our oil strategy, in the next decades Azerbaijan will experience a new dawn." But the challenges the country faces are formidable, including developing its mineral resources; fighting corruption; reducing regional tensions; and preparing for Mr Aliyev's eventual political departure. Azerbaijan's heyday was 100 years ago when it briefly produced half the world's oil. When the Soviet Union collapsed it was pumping oil from decrepit wells, planted among some of the world's worst industrial pollution. Its economic troubles were compounded by a war with Armenia, over the disputed territory of Nagorno Artsax, and by civil strife which only ended after President Aliyev came to power in 1993. The former KGB general and Brezhnev confidant brutally consolidated his authority. Mr Aliyev's triumph coincided with a surge in interest from oil companies, culminating in the 1994 "contract of the century" with the Azerbaijan International Operating Company. Today, BP Amoco, the AIOC leader, estimates Azerbaijan has 7bn barrels of oil, or 0.7 per cent of world reserves, although Socar, the Azeri state oil company, puts the figure at 17.5bn barrels. BP Amoco puts gas reserves at 850bn cubic metres, or 0.6 per cent of the global total. Oil industry executives still hope for more big finds, but the anticipation levels are lower today than two or three years ago. The impact on Azerbaijan, with its population of only 8m, is already considerable: output last year was nearly 280,000 barrels a day (b/d), or 50 per cent more than in 1997. The big production surge is yet to come through the planned development by AIOC of the Azeri-Chirag Gyuneshli offshore field (ACG), which could raise output to nearly 1m b/d by 2010. As a bonus there is AIOC's proposed development of the Shah Deniz gasfield. Oil companies have invested more than Dollars 3bn in Azerbaijan, driving economic growth to an annual average of 9 per cent in 1998-2000. A further Dollars 8bn could come if the oil companies proceed with ACG and Shah Deniz and build the necessary export pipelines. All this in a country with a gross domestic product of only Dollars 4bn. The pipelines are a strategic issue. Azerbaijan favours exporting oil to the Mediterranean - via Georgia and Turkey - and gas to Turkey. This would reduce its dependence on Russian routes and the Russian-influenced Black Sea. The US supports the plan to help reduce Russian influence in the Caucasus and bind together the region's smaller states. But Russia would much prefer its own routes to be used. The oil companies want the gas pipeline but have yet to make up their minds on oil exports. The balance might be tipped in the Mediterranean route's favour if more discoveries are made, perhaps in the five offshore test wells to be drilled this year and early next. Meanwhile, the government is considering how to manage oil's economic impact. President Aliyev plans an oil fund, to be invested partly overseas in income-generating assets and partly domestically in budget support and infrastructure. The Azeri economy is enviably stable, with government borrowing under control, inflation low, and the foreign exchange rate solid. However, market-oriented reform is slow. The International Monetary Fund wants to see more progress in privatisation, banking reform and administrative change. As important as specific reforms is a change in the country's corruption-ridden culture. Politics and business are unhealthily intertwined, including at the highest level, where for example, the president's 38-year-old son - Ilham Aliyev - is both a leading light in the ruling New Azerbaijan party and a senior Socar executive. Outside oil and gas, investment is pitifully low. Swiss-based Holderbank runs the Garadagh cement plant. French brewer Castel owns a factory on the outskirts of Baku. The Baku Hyatt Hotel attracts praise. But as a European ambassador says: "A five-star hotel, a cement works and a beer factory do not make an economy." Michael Mered, the IMF representative, says: "If reforms are not quickly implemented . . . Azerbaijan could lose the current environment of economic stability and law and order, which the government has fought hard to establish." Much rests on Mr Aliyev's frail shoulders. The president says he will not retire early. He was last elected in 1998 with over 70 per cent of the vote, and only recently announced plans to seek a third five-year term in 2003. But although his mind is sharp his health seems to be weakening following heart illness. "What will happen when he is gone?" is the question most Azeris ask. The president has made his survival an issue by concentrating power in his hands. He has repressed challengers from his own party and from the opposition by violence, intimidation, and media manipulation. In this month's parliamentary elections, the ruling party resorted to widespread fraud. Mr Aliyev seems to be grooming his son as his successor. But it is unclear whether Ilham Aliyev can master the ruling party, let alone the country. Given Azerbaijan's troubles in the early 1990s, a peaceful succession cannot be taken for granted. One Azeri journalist says: "This time (in the parliamentary polls) we sat quiet. The time for action will come when (President) Aliyev goes." The oil industry may be ready to tolerate autocracy, but might take fright at prolonged civil strife. Also, Baku's relations with the US and the EU will be strained if the future brings further assaults on Azeris' democratic rights. The parliamentary election, witnessed by international monitors, cast a shadow over Azerbaijan's application to join the Council of Europe, the political rights forum. Azerbaijan was accepted, along with Armenia, but only on condition that it tackles electoral abuses. Without more respect for democracy, Azerbaijan may find itself on the fringes of the international community - oil or no oil. The country mostly looks west for support. But there are also signs that relations with Russia may be improving. Despite military ties between Moscow and Armenia, Azerbaijani officials see a new attitude towards the Caucasus under President Vladimir Putin, who is due to visit Baku in the next few days. Without Russian intervention it is difficult to see how there can be lasting peace in the southern Caucasus, including a settlement of Azerbaijan's most painful international problem - the loss of Nagorno Artsax to Armenia. Even though the province is populated mostly by ethnic Armenians, few Azerbaijanis accept the status quo. They also worry about an estimated 20m ethnic Azeris living across their southern border in Iran, where they are viewed with some suspicion. Azerbaijan lives in one of the world's tougher neighbourhoods. However, its most important challenges almost certainly lie within. Copyright: The Financial Times Limited http://globalarchive.ft.com/globalarchive/...itle=Azerbaijan

SURVAY: AZERBAIJAN: They thought it couldn't get worse Financial Times; Nov 22, 2000 By DAVID STERN For thousands of Azerbaijani refugees in the Bilasuvar camp, life could soon become even worse. Here on the former Soviet republic's desolate southern border with Iran, some 18,000 fugitives from the war in Nagorno Artsax have made their home for the past eight years. They live in mud brick hovels, scorched by the sun in the summer and frozen by winds in the winter, and subsist on handouts from international aid agencies. No jobs are to be had in a country where unemployment is estimated unofficially to be 25 per cent. Now international aid agencies say that they are scaling back their humanitarian operations in favour of less-expensive development programmes so that the refugees can begin to look after themselves. The United Nations High Commission for Refugees is reducing expenses this year from Dollars 12m to Dollars 4.7m. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) is cutting its budget by half. Other aid organisations are doing the same, or pulling out entirely. The reason for the reduction, western officials say, is "donor fatigue" - the state of exhaustion that occurs when foreign contributors provide money to what appears initially a short-term crisis, but lose interest as the arrangement drags on. "Donors don't like to provide for a situation that seems to have no solutions," says Borje Sjokvist, head of delegation for IFRC's Baku office. Resolving Azerbaijan's ongoing struggle with neighbouring Armenia over the disputed enclave of Nagorno Artsax, in the country's south-west, does at the moment appear particularly hopeless. The conflict, which has claimed more than 20,000 lives, began as a request to Moscow in 1988 by the province's local assembly to cede from the Soviet administration in Baku and join up with their brothers in Yerevan. Violence soon broke out among the villages, which escalated with the end of the Soviet Union and the easy access it gave both sides to the Soviet army's arsenal in the Caucasus. Since the fighting stopped in 1994 the two sides have been locked in negotiations for a final peace settlement. For the most part they have failed to make any progress. Hopes were raised at the end of 1999 that a deal was in the making. After a series of one-on-one meetings over the summer between Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev and his Armenian counterpart, Robert Kocharian, rumours circulated in the two capitals that the two leaders would sign an initial peace deal at the OSCE summit in Istanbul in October last year. But the assassination in the Armenian parliament of the country's prime minister, parliamentary speaker and six other government officials buried any plans for a breakthrough. Since then no new proposals have been offered. At the heart of the deadlock remains the status of Artsax. The Azerbaijanis say that they are willing to grant it "the highest level of autonomy". This translates into de facto independence for the territory, but without its own army or foreign policy. The Armenians say they did not win the war to see the province return to being dominated by Baku. They insist on complete sovereignity. There are other issues. Probably most important of these is what to do with Susha, one of Azerbaijan's most important historical and cultural centres, but now a ghost town. It is located in the heart of Artsax, overlooking the Armenian-dominated capital of Stepanakert. Although no concrete proposals for a settlement seem to be in the offing, fears are increasing that time may be running out. Azerbaijan's Mr Aliyev is rumoured to be in poor health, and if he left the political stage prematurely it is difficult to see who would have the authority among the remaining Azeri politicians to reach a deal. Meanwhile, for Azerbaijan's extensive refugee population - actually referred to as "internally displaced persons" because they crossed no international boundaries - hope is drying up that they will ever return home. The Azeri government is loath to provide them with too much assistance, experts say, for fear that if the IDPs become too comfortable they may become settled. This could be viewed as a tacit acknowledgement that Azerbaijan lost the war and Artsax is gone forever. Azeri officials, for their part maintain that there are not enough funds in the state budget to deal with the problem. But for the approximately 300,000 Azerbaijanis living in camps, railway wagons and temporary housing, the ways of the government and aid agencies are all a mystery. Says Ibrahim Rzaev, 33, an inhabitant of Bilasuvar: "Eight years have passed and nothing has happened. Sometimes I think that they have completely forgotten about us." David Stern Copyright: The Financial Times Limited http://globalarchive.ft.com/globalarchive/...itle=Azerbaijan

Turkish banks await reform By Leyla Boulton in Ankara Published: March 11 2001 20:10GMT | Last Updated: March 12 2001 09:24GMT Turkey could start a radical restructuring of state-owned banks even before it unveils a revamped economic reform package later this week. Kemal Dervis, appointed economics minister 10 days ago and charged with the task of trying to salvage Turkey's struggle against double-digit inflation from the wreckage of last month's 25 per cent devaluation, will on Monday resume work on a revised economic programme. Mr Dervis flew back on Sunday from Washington after a visit to resign his post at the World Bank and explore the possibility of additional funding for Turkey from the International Monetary Fund and other lenders. Mr Dervis has indicated that both he and his interlocutors view Turkish politics as the biggest potential threat to renewed reform efforts. A clash between Bülent Ecevit, prime minister, and President Ahmet Necdet Sezer - on the eve of what was supposed to be Turkey's biggest treasury bill auction - triggered the collapse of an IMF-backed disinflation programme. Mr Ecevit stressed at the weekend that his government fully supported economic reform. But financial markets, which reopen in Turkey on Monday after a week-long public holiday, will want to see action to back such assertions. Even before Mr Dervis announces a comprehensive blueprint by the end of this week, experts expect early reform in the banking sector. As a first step the authorities are likely to extricate from the money markets Ziraat and Halk, the two biggest state-owned banks, as well as Sumer Bank, an umbrella gathering five troubled banks under state administration. The plan is to replace these institutions' expensive short-term money market funding, exceeding $4bn, with cheaper longer-term borrowing instruments. http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=...NA0C&Collid=Any