2 Questions...

[Azat]

Before I get to my 2 questions I like to write a small paragraph explaining the situation.

 

The IT industry is in trouble. More precisely the IT workers are in trouble. Currently I am in the middle of a small project(3 week) for a mid size company(about 1200 employees). This is a company well known for producing top of the line software for enterprise management. Yesterday the entire company was in a chaos. Management announced the layoffs of almost 375 people. All from the customer support organization(some of the support guys were at this company for over 20 years and were top notch developers them selves)[by the way I know many of these people as in a past life I worked for this company]. They were all given a 6 weeks severance and vacation days and were told that their jobs were being moved to India as labor was going to be 20 times cheaper and their goal was to increase the profit for their shareholders.

 

This company is not the only one to make this move to India. Thousands of companies are moving their IT/MIS departments to India, Russia, China, Bangladesh and to many other nations where labor is much cheaper. Forrester Research had a paper out few months back that talked about the Indian IT Industry going from 6 Billion in 2002 to 54 billion by 2009. China and Russia are trying hard to get in to the US/EU It industry as well. Ed Yourdon(a GOD in the Software industry) in his Death of the American Programmer talked about this 10 years ago. But at that time the web/internet was not so much in out lives as it is now and the death was going to take longer. Today the internet makes it SO easy to have your developers all over the world doing work for you.

 

We know that government can't/wont/should not do anything about this. My question is what is going to happen to the developers/software industry in the states. Is it going to die like the textile and steel industries did in the 60 and 70s.

 

My second question is, how come Armenia(full of very talented software developers) is not pushing to grab a small piece of the IT pie. They need the infrastructure the schools and all that to make a difference, but I feel that all that is possible.

[nairi]

My second question is, how come Armenia(full of very talented software developers) is not pushing to grab a small piece of the IT pie. They need the infrastructure the schools and all that to make a difference, but I feel that all that is possible.

This leads me to another question: what do you guys know of the Nairit computer? What exactly was its funtion/specialty? And do you see a future in reviving and modernizing it?

[DominO123]

My second question is, how come Armenia(full of very talented software developers) is not pushing to grab a small piece of the IT pie.  They need the infrastructure the schools and all that to make a difference, but I feel that all that is possible.

This leads me to another question: what do you guys know of the Nairit computer? What exactly was its funtion/specialty? And do you see a future in reviving and modernizing it?

From its name, I would say it is probably the best computer ever made.

[Sasun]

Here are some links to Nairi, and it turns out there were also Razdan computers.

 

http://www.bashedu.ru/konkurs/tarhov/english/nairi.htm

 

http://www.yercsi.am/new/eng/history.html

[nairi]

Here are some links to Nairi, and it turns out there were also Razdan computers.

Thanks! Not that I can judge anything by it... I think this is something for the boys to decipher

 

But what do you guys think? Is it worth reviving, modernizing, internationalizing any of these computers or would it be a waste of time?

[vava]

This leads me to another question: what do you guys know of the Nairit computer? What exactly was its funtion/specialty? And do you see a future in reviving and modernizing it?

From its name, I would say it is probably the best computer ever made.

That kind of comment just makes me want to punch you. :box:

[Azat]

Domino, I liked your answer. No wonder all the chicks in the forum like you.

-----

 

Dear Nairi, both Razdan and Nairit computer of Armenia made cloned IBM mainframes using technology developed by IBM some 20-30 years ago. The Hardware marked is completely controlled by few companies(IBM, Dell, HP/Compaq, and to a lesser extent Sun and Amdahl, and Fujitsu). These companies are very competitive and will use all kind of tactics to make sure that others have a hard time getting in to the market. I actually do not know too much about Nairit and Razdan, but will read more about them this evening from the links that Sasun provided.

 

The software market is still completely open. You do not have to be a billion dollar company to get in to the software industry. Especially true in the outsourcing industries. You need no bright software idea, no marketing, no sales, etc. All you need are a talented group of people who can code, or test or solve customer issues. And Armenia has many and con produce many more talented IT people. To grow this market the nation need to make a strong effort and put up money to build it up.

 

A question to Harut. Harut, I know you are in university studying CS. Are you worried about getting a well paying job once you graduate in a year or two? What do the profs say about the outsourcing that is going on in the states right now. Don't get me wrong I am not saying that there will be no more IT jobs in the US in 10 years or anything like that, but I am certain that there will be a lot fewer good paying IT jobs.

 

few more facts about IT in India(outsourcing)

-Worldwide IT industry grew 4% in 2002. In India the growth rate was at 26%

-71% of IT work done in India is for the US

-Almost all IT projects in india were 2-3 million dollar projects, however companies are starting to hand over 30-40 million dollar projects these days and few companies like GE have already deals with India for projects in excess of 100 million dollars.

-If you think that it is IT alone you are wrong. many a times when you call your bank or a call center to ask a question about some service it is routed to India. I know but the person on the other end had a Southern accent and said is from XYZ city in the states. They send their employees to language classes and they are told never to reveal their location. Don't believe me? Read the annual report for Citibank and American Express(and I am sure many others as well)

-here is a short list of companies who outsource their IT departments to India: General Motors, British Airways, Wal-Mart, Coca-Cola, General Electric, Ford, Sony, Nokia, Siemens, United Airways, Pepsi, Boeing and Citibank

 

Anyways, I better run. I have a project due in 8-9 days that I need to finish or else my project may be mover overseas as well.

[DominO123]

This leads me to another question: what do you guys know of the Nairit computer? What exactly was its funtion/specialty? And do you see a future in reviving and modernizing it?

From its name, I would say it is probably the best computer ever made.

That kind of comment just makes me want to punch you. :box:

Look Vava, don't make me change my Avatar, by switching Seaphan with your dog. I don't want to punch that little creature.

 

What the word chicks really means? I know girls are called like that, but what it reallt means?

[Harut]

A question to Harut. Harut, I know you are in university studying CS. Are you worried about getting a well paying job once you graduate in a year or two? What do the profs say about the outsourcing that is going on in the states right now. Don't get me wrong I am not saying that there will be no more IT jobs in the US in 10 years or anything like that, but I am certain that there will be a lot fewer good paying IT jobs.

first of all, i don't study CS, but CIS.

 

seriously though... the situation is horrible. all of our CIS professors are former industry workers with digrees. that should tell you something...people are losing their jobs.

yes, i'm worried, even though professors and rest keep telling me otherwise, because i'm (not to sound arogant) one of the best students in school among students at my level. but more realistic profs warn that i have to be very good, creative, unique in some way, and have up-to-date knowledge to get a job (even note a good paying one).

there are still talks that if you are a good student companies will compete for you even on those difficult days. but i don't know anyone who was that fortunate, nor do i know anyone who knows someone like that. (just a propaganda by the school)

actually, our placement rates have fallen horriblely. they haven't released official stas yet for last 2-3 terms, but unofficially say that they have dropped a lot. if they were in low 80s before that, i suppose they should be in 50s maximum now.

and many of those get their first jobs as techicians.

though, they still are students who get good paying jobs even before graduation. but almost all of those are older students, who have previous job experience of some sort.

 

but i wouldn't suggest to take our school rates and performance of the students too seriously. our reps (LIARS!!!) will get anyone in, who has HS diploma.

[Sip]

Azat, let me make a distinction between software/hardware developers and "IT" industry.

 

The software development industry does seem to be moving to India! It makes perfect sense ... they are cheap

 

But in terms of "IT", as in information technology, I don't think it is as bad as you make it sound. At the end of the day, the work force is going to be needed HERE to physically install, manage, update, train, and hand-hold the normal users. I don't think technology is any where near the point where all things can be done remotely. Thus, although "development" may be done in far away "cheap" places, deployment, management, and usage will still be done locally here in the states.

 

What does this mean? This means that there is going to be demand for IT consultants, high-tech consulting-based firms and companies, and people that can get the ever expanding complex systems running and operational.

 

Of course right now things are horrible. After the .com crash, the silicon valley crash, and basically the fall of the high-tech boom, IT was hit very hard. But it will undoubtedly rebound. Computers aren't going to go away. Secretaries and bosses aren't going to become geeks over night. There is going to be a need for IT people (CIS, MIS, etc) for YEARS to come. I mean come on ... some companies are still running on VAX VMS and using things written in COBOL!!!!

[Sip]

Of course the downfall of all this is going to be the ever dropping price of bandwidth. It may soon be cheap to actually transfer data to India, process, and store there, as opposed to doing anything local here!!!! Hard to believe but optical fiber is SO cheap and SO plentiful, that may end up happening. I doubt it ... but it could!

 

Imagine ... entire companies existing on a rack in Bangladesh with only a few thousand dumb-terminals here in the states communicating remotely through the net! That is a scary thought

[Sip]

Sorry to add yet another "interestingly enough" ...

 

I was trying to think about parallels in the hardware industry ... DRAM is made in South Korea and Taiwan ... a lot of silicon comes from those areas. But still, if you take a company like intel, they have fabs in the US (oregon for example) and produce CPUs locally in the US. So why doesn't intel move completely to Taiwan for example?

 

---

[edit]: I think part of the answer is this ... as a rule of thumb, anything that is going to require "brains" (i.e. research capital and investment) will remain in the US. Anything that is purely labor, will move. Just coding and doing software development doesn't require the amount of resources and "brains" required to design and built the next generation CPU.

[Azat]

Azat, let me make a distinction between software/hardware developers and "IT" industry.

 

The software development industry does seem to be moving to India! It makes perfect sense ... they are cheap

 

But in terms of "IT", as in information technology, I don't think it is as bad as you make it sound. At the end of the day, the work force is going to be needed HERE to physically install, manage, update, train, and hand-hold the normal users. I don't think technology is any where near the point where all things can be done remotely. Thus, although "development" may be done in far away "cheap" places, deployment, management, and usage will still be done locally here in the states.

...

I agree 100% with what you said Sip, but if I amy add more to put things in prospective.

 

IT Technician/MIS Specialist/the guy who installs the software and does a lot of hand holding of the users - 30-45K per year even with few years of experience.

 

Software developer 60K to start and up to 120K with years of experience as an employee. Some people who are high end consultants earn 125-150 per hour(some even more)

 

For you see the part of the IT sector that we are loosing(Software Development) is the part that use to pay the most.

 

I also agree with you that high end consultants. specialists, good managers/directors are going to in higher demand to be able to manage those complex work environments.

 

-------------

Granted hardware is a completely different issue

[Azat]

InfoWorld had an article today that talked about a deal between Qwest and IBM and India.

 

Qwest has given IBM and $2 Billion outsourcing contract for the next 10 years and most of which will be outsourced in turn to India.

 

 

BTW: the next big wave of outsourcing is going to come in the HR organizations. That eliminated another cost center for companies and the need expansive ERP software like Peoplesoft.

[Sasun]

Let's hope that such cost cutting will boost the economy and create new jobs, maybe not tech jobs but something that the laid-off techies can easily learn to do.

 

But if the HR jobs also go to India that would take more cuts than tech jobs. Or am I wrong? I am guessing there are a lot more HR staff than IT staff. On the other hand HR people are normally paid less than programmers, so there is not as much gain in outsourcing.

[Azat]

Here is an article from todays Time Magazine

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/...-471198,00.html

 

Goodbye tech, hello house painting.

[Sip]

Tata Consultancy Services????

 

I think we found Bruin's future employer!!!!! I wonder if she'll like living in India

 

Very nice article Azat ... thanks for posting the link.

[Azat]

Sip jan, the singing is just a side gig.

[Stormig]

A question to Harut. Harut, I know you are in university studying CS. Are you worried about getting a well paying job once you graduate in a year or two? What do the profs say about the outsourcing that is going on in the states right now. Don't get me wrong I am not saying that there will be no more IT jobs in the US in 10 years or anything like that, but I am certain that there will be a lot fewer good paying IT jobs.

Yeah - just take in the new graduates for cheaper, laying off the older, more experienced.

I know of at least one person who has moved to Armenia for that reason.

[Azat]

http://www.unitedmedia.com/comics/dilbert/archive/images/dilbert2003080130673.jpg

[gamavor]

A question to Harut.  Harut, I know you are in university studying CS.  Are you worried about getting a well paying job once you graduate in a year or two?  What do the profs say about the outsourcing that is going on in the states right now.  Don't get me wrong I am not saying that there will be no more IT jobs in the US in 10 years or anything like that, but I am certain that there will be a lot fewer good paying IT jobs.

Yeah - just take in the new graduates for cheaper, laying off the older, more experienced.

I know of at least one person who has moved to Armenia for that reason.

That's a very popular trick not only in the IT business. This is such an "effective" tool for growth that reminds me a joke from the old times about the different interpretation of the socialism according to the big boss. So, during the times of Gorbachov, when his fellow men informed him that the "train of the socialism stopped because there are no railways ahead to proceed" , he ordered the people outside the train, to run up and down carrying bushes and trees, as if the train is moving.

[Azat]

Bush Lays Off Congress; will Outsource Lawmaking to India

By Jay Slupesky

 

Washington - Citing the growing cost of running the Federal government and the need to cut costs in order to reduce the budget deficit, President Bush announced today that he was laying off all 535 members of Congress and transferring lawmaking operations to a legislative support center in Bangalore, India.

 

"Hey, outsourcing is the way to go these days," said Bush at an impromptu news conference where he announced the decision, adding, the American people want to see less government waste. Since every one of those ex-Congressmen had a salary of $150,000, this move will cut our costs by over $80 million per year, and that's not even counting what we'll save on health insurance and retirement plans." Sources indicate that the Indian replacements will be paid approximately $250 per month.

 

The outcry from the newly laid-off Senators and Representatives was swift. Ex-California Senator Diane Feinstein said, "This is absolutely outrageous. How can a bunch of replacements over in India run Congress? What do they know about filibusters and committee hearings?" As she was being escorted out of the Hart Senate Office Building by U.S. Capitol Police officers, Feinstein complained that the newly-terminated lawmakers were only given ten minutes to clean out their desks and leave the building.

 

"I think it's a great idea," said Vice President Dick Cheney, speaking from a secure undisclosed location. "The American people were fed up with that expensive do-nothing Congress which didn't always give the President everything he asked for. Our new Indian replacements will be much cooperative to the President, which is what we all want." Asked whether the outsourcing may be unconstitutional, Cheney noted, "That's up to the Supreme Court to decide, but as you know, they usually see things our way."

 

The new members of Congress seem thrilled with the attention they are receiving. Speaking from the offices of All-India Legislative Support Centre Ltd. in Bangalore, new Mississippi Senator Ramchandra Shektar Gupta told reporters, "The Indian people are very hard working and we will do our best as U.S. Congressmen and Congresswomen. And we are going to have some fun too. Just think: we have $2 trillion of the American taxpayers' money to spend!"

 

 

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HyeGurl, the above is a joke, no need to get upset at Bush again.

[Sasun]

[Azat]

And I was worried about IT industry being outsourced to India, China and Russia.

 

Even a monkey can do what I do.

 

http://www.newtechusa.com/ppi/images/7517897_image001.jpg

 

They are not watching monkey porn or any other movie, they are programming. No kidding...

 

Higher Primates Can Program After VB.NET Training", it seems that Stamford School of Zoology's Dr. James McAuliffe amazed even himself with the results of recent experiments:

 

"Baboons and chimpanzees can use computers, do software testing, and even program...

 

...When male baboons were shown multi-way branches leading to certain GIF, JPG and BMP images of interest, we found the male animals could quickly navigate and recall up to seven levels of deep menu nesting, with each level containing up to 27 menu items.

 

...That’s about 35 million possible paths."

 

 

http://www.newtechusa.com/ppi/pressroom.asp#higher

[Sip]

ashahhaahahahhahha hahaahhaah

 

Thanks! I needed that early in the morning! By the way, Azat, I think I've seen a chimp painting walls too so you may want to rethink your house painting backup career.