takavor Posted January 31, 2003 Report Share Posted January 31, 2003 Today, one Karabagh soldier has been shot dead by Azeri sniper near the Aghdam front-line. This is a most serious breach of the cease-fire. Moreover, this incident (murder) came just hours after a visit OSCE officials come to observe and confirm the cease-fire is still effective. I really wonder, will the Karabghtsi have to go as far as taking Bakou to garantee a complete and permanent cease-fire? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
takavor Posted January 31, 2003 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2003 Right now, Azerbaidjan is building up a new army with the latest weaponry.A contract has just been signed, entered by the Azeri govt and Germany. German military industry will provide new equipment. So, let me tell you that, when they restart the war, they won't just go after Karabagh, but the whole Armenia. And let me tell you that, I already have the necessary basic military training to go on, and I won't hesitate to join. Like thousands of us worldwide. Will you be with us then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harut Posted January 31, 2003 Report Share Posted January 31, 2003 quote:Originally posted by takavor:Like thousands of us worldwide.as unfortunate as it is, this wasn't the case during the war period, '88-'94, and i don't think this will be the case if military activities restart. quote:Will you be with us then?i would neither join nor would want anyone, be that diasporan or hayastantsi or gharabaghtsi, to fight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harut Posted February 1, 2003 Report Share Posted February 1, 2003 quote:Originally posted by takavor:I really wonder, will the Karabghtsi have to go as far as taking Bakou to garantee a complete and permanent cease-fire?will you go fight alongside with gharabaghtsis to complete that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
takavor Posted February 1, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2003 That's right. But, I think awareness is growing among Armenians, not just here in the US, but worldwide. And, I don't think I'm too wrong about the number. I also think, we ought to be prepared for the worst-case senario. Now that Bush is going after Irak, Turls will come out of this stronger, for they will get sovereignty on Nothern Irak. That's part of the deal. Iran will be next. And, to get Iran, the first step will be to get Armenia. That's my analysis. It's looks like doomsday, but it almost happened when Turkey prepared an invasion in 1993. Remember the episode of "Armenia is on the US black list of terrorist countries". It's not a coincidence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THOTH Posted February 1, 2003 Report Share Posted February 1, 2003 takavor - Don't be so consipiracy theoretical about the situation. there is plenty legitimate to worry abut without thinking up such implausible scenarios. However, if I were Armenia I would make sure I had a very elite special forces unit (Russians could train such) that would be prepared for "contingencies". Besides the potential Turkish threat - that I see as unlikely due to international constraints (again - can you spell R u s s i a n s) - I don't see any potential conflict involving Armenia where some appropriate sabotage and assasination wouldn't basically take care of the entire problem (if it aver comes to this) - regardless....So I suggest concentration on more domestic relevant issues...(that by far pose the greater threat to the perpetuation of the Armenian nation)... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
takavor Posted February 1, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2003 Toth, 1) Until recently, who would have possibly thought, that Armenia could in any way, ever be on the US list of terrorist countries? Nobody. So, very low probability doesn't mean something is not possible. That was simply a gift to Turkey, for America needs to make sure it can rely on turkey for the Irak war. 2) In 1993, Turkey was preparing an invasion, although, at the same time is was applying to join EU as member. So, it's the worry of looking bad that's gonna stop them. Only a strong Armenian military can. 3) Russia has never proved to be reliable ally.As you know, Russian Bolcheviks GAVE our land (Kars) to Turks. They didn't give Georgia's land or Azerbaidjan's land, they gave OUR land. So, when shit comes, we'll be alone. And we better be ready for it. As you see, I'm not inventing things, and I believe my analysis should be given a closer look. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THOTH Posted February 1, 2003 Report Share Posted February 1, 2003 quote:Originally posted by takavor:1) Until recently, who would have possibly thought, that Armenia could in any way, ever be on the US list of terrorist countries? Nobody. So, very low probability doesn't mean something is not possible.Yeah, but...and are you sure that Armenia is on such a list? quote:Originally posted by takavor:2) In 1993, Turkey was preparing an invasion, although, at the same time is was applying to join EU as member. So, it's the worry of looking bad that's gonna stop them. Only a strong Armenian military can.93 was sabre rattling at best - there was no serious threat (and what else really do the Turks know how to do). And if so - it was not - nor likely will it ever be - any Armenian army that will make any difference. Armenia will never be able to match Turkey in any conventional war type of showdown. And I don't think Armenia will ever be able to face up to Turkey directly militarily - but - if there were to be such a confrontation - at some point in the future - Armenia'a military leaders (planners) would do well to try to think about war in a context of other then with armies - they should not be wedded to 20th century concepts... quote:Originally posted by takavor:3) Russia has never proved to be reliable ally.As you know, Russian Bolcheviks GAVE our land (Kars) to Turks. They didn't give Georgia's land or Azerbaidjan's land, they gave OUR land. So, when shit comes, we'll be alone. And we better be ready for it. Perhaps true - but in the current situation Armenia has no other choice. It is basically unrealistic to asume that Armenia will ever pose any real threat to Turkey or that it could ever defend itself against Turkey. quote:Originally posted by takavor:As you see, I'm not inventing things, and I believe my analysis should be given a closer look. Well its bvious that again Turkey has the West over the proverbial barrel (and again it needn't be but for Western shortsightedness..) - and this cannot be good for Armenia. As for all the rest - well yes I'm certain Turkey has certain designs on Northern Iraq...and who knows what might come to pass...but I still believe you are crfossing into the realms of paranoia...and you really don't consider your statements as a result of any really analysis - do you? Do you? [ February 01, 2003, 04:10 PM: Message edited by: THOTH ] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
takavor Posted February 1, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2003 Well Toth, Toth, You say I'm versing towards paranoia, and at the time, you just agree with me that Turkey has plans over Nothern Irak. Forecast, means taking risks. It means putting current facts evidence together to forecast were they can lead to. That's the analytical process. If I tell you, I had forecast the Afghanistan show-down about 6 months before the September 11 events? You probably won't believe me. Anyway, as I travel a lot, I can tell you that starting February 2001, Afghanistan was already ALL OVER the news channels worldwide. Why is that? Because people need to be educated first. There's been tens of documentaries wordlwide showing the customs of Afghan people, how women's rights are violated, etc... (PS: I'm not defending them here, I just present the facts). So, after a month or so of this Afghan education shit, I said. That's it. Something's up. The US and the British are going after Afghanistan. Guess what happened? Now, how does Sept 11 fit into this? I think the CIA knew there were plots. They just underestimated their enemy. They probably thought it was just gonna be small aircrafts (like single-propeller or Cesna). If I had posted this on this forum, you and others would probably said I'm paranoiac. Now, I can say I was damn right! PS I: To answer your question: Armenia has now been removed from that shameful list, after our friends in Congress lobbied hard. The Dept of Justice apologized for the so-called mistake. Mistake, my ass. PS II: You said Armenia couldn't stand up to Turkey in case of a conflict. What is Sadarabad then? A scout camp?But, that's probably true now. Tyrkey is VERY well equipped. However, with the latest weaponry, even a small country can stand up to a big bully, and inflict it severe losses. PS III: In 1993, Turkish were already deployed along the Armenian border, and field POCs were set up. Why is it they backed off? Russia? Does Armenia have mass cestruction weapons, afterall? None will ever know. [ February 01, 2003, 04:50 PM: Message edited by: takavor ] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THOTH Posted February 2, 2003 Report Share Posted February 2, 2003 takavor - As far as I'm concerned you have fully prooved my point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Accelerated Posted February 2, 2003 Report Share Posted February 2, 2003 In case of war, to defeat Armenia all Turkey has to do is to (accidently) drop a few bombs on Metzamor Nuclear Power Station, and we will be finished..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MosJan Posted February 2, 2003 Report Share Posted February 2, 2003 so will half of turky and all of nakhidjevan ~~~ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
takavor Posted February 2, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2003 quote:Originally posted by THOTH:As far as I'm concerned you have fully prooved my point.Toth, most people believe something can happen only when it happens. It's human nature. Sometimes, even when it happens, they try to convince themselves there must be some good reason why it happened. Simply because it disturbs their peaceful, and naive thinking. Because, they prefer to pretend they can live in a happy, cozy world ever after. however, other people think ahead them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Accelerated Posted February 2, 2003 Report Share Posted February 2, 2003 quote:so will half of turky and all of nakhidjevan Not if the wind is blowing in the right direction... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baboyan Posted February 3, 2003 Report Share Posted February 3, 2003 if i had the chance to fight i would Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul bunyan Posted February 16, 2003 Report Share Posted February 16, 2003 it has been reported that a azeri captured an Armenian soldier nearFizuli. the whole account read like typical azerispeak i.e. crazed foolish lies. but if true, then the Armenians should keep that wounded azeri~turk that they have in custody until the Armenian soldier is returned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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