New War Will Destroy Azerbaijan - Daniel Fried

[Aratta-Kingdom]

ARMENPRESS

 

NEW WAR WILL DESTROY AZERBAIJAN, U.S. DIPLOMAT

 

YEREVAN, AUGUST 10, ARMENPRESS: In an interview

with RFE/RL Azerbaijani Service U.S. Assistant

Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasia Daniel Fried

spoke about the latest developments in the Southern

Caucasus, including the efforts for resolution of the

Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Asked whether with both Armenia and Azerbaijan

entering their election cycles, he was less optimistic

about the chances for success in the Nagorno-Karabakh

peace process and whether he thought that the

presidents have missed an opportunity Daniel Fried

said, ` I don't want to be critical, I think that we

were all disappointed that the last trip of the

Contact Group didn't yield the results we had hoped.

There have been good negotiations, well good talks I

should say, some progress has been made and at some

point I hope that the leaders of the two countries

will find a way forward.

Ultimately, it's in everyone's interests. The

future of Azerbaijan will be under a cloud as long as

this issue is not resolved and it can only be resolved

peacefully. A war is going to destroy Azerbaijan's

future and do no one any good. A peaceful settlement

is the way to go. We've come this far and I hope that

we can resolve it.'

 

[AVO]

The NK2 war would put Baku-Tbilisi-Cayhan oil pipline in danger. Thats the only real harm the US sees in another war.

[Takoush]

The NK2 war would put Baku-Tbilisi-Cayhan oil pipline in danger. Thats the only real harm the US sees in another war.

I know Avo jan; the US only thinks about $ $ $ $ $ that's the only thing they see in it. While we think of our own; what the US care? And as if they are democratic and want to instill peace on earth - Huh! Baloney, right? All talk and no action; rather the opposite. Ի՞նչ կըսեն Հայերէ՞ն: "եղունք ունիս գլուխդ քերէ":

 

 

 

Edited August 13, 2007 by Anahid Takouhi

[Aratta-Kingdom]

 

 

U.S. also has an eye on Iranian oil. If a new war breaks out, it will escalate to become a regional war. Iran and Russia don't like the american presense in the region. Russia will use the opportunity to punish Georgia, and Iran, driven out of fear, will actively support Armenia.

 

If the U.S. is ever gonna attack Iran, it wants to be sure that the conflict between the Armenians and the Azeris is at least frozen-if not solved.

Edited August 14, 2007 by Aratta-Kingdom

[AK-47]

U.S. also has an eye on Iranian oil. If a new war breaks out, it will escalate to become a regional war. Iran and Russia don't like the american presense in the region. Russia will use the opportunity to punish Georgia, and Iran, driven out of fear, will actively support Armenia.

 

If the U.S. is ever gonna attack Iran, it wants to be sure that the conflict between the Armenians and the Azeris is at least frozen-if not solved.

I remember reading in the past that in the case that Azerbaijan is used as a launchpad for a possible future invasion of Iran, the Islamic Republic will attack both Georgia and Azerbaijan of course not a direct invasion but a missile shower. But anyway, an invasion of Iran is highly unlikely in the near future because Iran, unlike Iraq, can defend itself and the country and its people have not been destroyed by a decade of sanctions... yet.

 

And Georgia's future is not looking so good. Russia is gonna start to ignite the flames of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. It holds those cards in his hands and can use it anytime.

Edited August 14, 2007 by AK-47

[Aratta-Kingdom]

AK, i couldn't with you more.

 

Here is an other reason why azerbaijan will suffer dearly if they decide to start a war.

 

MOVSES HAKOBIAN : NKR DEFENSE ARMY IS QUITE EFFICIENT

By Kim Gabrielian

 

AZG Armenian Daily

22/08/2007

 

On the hundredth day of his office NKR Defence Minister Movses Hakobian

held a press conference and said the defense army of NKR fulfils its

goal and provides the security of the borders of the country.

 

The minister said today the purpose of the defense army is not to

allow the enemy to take the initiative.

 

"Now our army can sustain the balance of forces on the line of

contact. The foe knows it cannot break the balance.

 

Otherwise, it would have already attacked," the minister

said. According to Movses Hakobian, the experts who saw the military

installations confirmed that Azerbaijan will lose in case it wages a

war on NKR. Movses Hakobian also said although the name of the armed

force of Karabakh is the defense army, if necessity arises, the army

is ready to launch actions in the rear of the foe. The minister said

the air defense of Karabakh is effective. "Stepanakert will not be

shelled any more," NKR Defence Minister underscored.

 

 

 

 

[hosank]

but yes, obviously when you are a superpower such as the us, all you really do care about is money, or at least, your own interests. lets not be hypocritical, and admit that that is the goal of every country, though the US is better at it because of it's size and power, and it is simply doing the obvious thing, and trying to protect it's own economy.

 

second, i do not think that abkazia and ossetia will be a big problem in the war, no matter what the media are trying to make of it. in my opinion, georgia has made a good enough attempt at coexistance with it's brakeaway republics so far, and they are both happy enough with their status right now not to be pushed too much by russia. i think georgia would be a powerful ally in a war with azerbaijan, since they control most of azerbaijan's exports. once the pipeline, which is pretty much the only thing holding georgia and azerbaijan together is destroyed (probably by artsax artillery, since it passes right near the border, or javaxtsi armenians, since it passes right through javax, or the pkk, since it passes right through the kurdish region of turkey) georgia will be free of economic alliances and return to historic and ethno-cultural alliances. the georgian ambassador himself calls armenia the sister state of georgia, and they would cooperate more if it wasn't for georgia's economic interests..

 

point being, it would be suicide for azerbaijan to start the war again, since such a war would have little impact on armenia's already established war economy, but a huge on on azerbaijan's exclusively petrol based one.

[HyeFedayis]

YEREVAN (YERKIR)--"Resumption of hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh would cause more damage than in 1992-1994, since collisions would take place between well-equipped armies not guerilla troops," said Vladimir Kazimirov, the former Russian co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group.

 

If war resumes, he said, neither side would manage a victorious blitzkrieg. Hostilities will linger for the next 4-5 years and the consequences will be destructive for the initiator first and foremost. This is a fact that demands very thorough consideration by the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, he said.

 

According to Kazimorov, the war is a threat for the entire international community as well. "The South Caucasus is not a region deserving indifference," he said, noting that it won't be easy to justify new carnage or an occupation of Armenia, since everyone sees Yerevan and Stepanakert as insisting on a compromise solution, while Baku stubbornly threatens war if Armenians don't relinquish all territorial claims, including Nagorno-Karabakh. The Repetition of hostilities will be perceived as a great anomaly," the Russian diplomat said.

 

"The side that dares to violate the armistice will immediately draw universal condemnation for breaking from the principles of the OSCE and the commitments to the CoE," he stated. "World powers and influential international organizations, which have worked for a peaceful resolution of the conflict will severely condemn the aggressor," he added.

 

Although Article 9 of the Azerbaijani constitution rejects war as a means of settling international conflicts, Azeri leaders have already undermined the authority of their Laws by making repeated bellicose statements, Kazimorov noted. They don't fail to cite the Constitution when commenting on the referendum on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh but they completely ignore the above-mentioned article, he added.

 

Baku's role in exacerbating the situation in the Caucasus is becoming more apparent, Kazimorov stated. Baku has been intensifying the arms race in the Caucasus by drastically boosting its defense budget year after year. While President Heydar Aliyev has completely neglected the agreement with Armenia and Karabakh on the suppression of border incidents, he noted.

 

Every day the Azeri Defense Ministry reports a violation of the ceasefire by Armenians. However, if Baku truly wanted to suppress such incidents, why doesn't it follow the agreement officially signed under the aegis of the OSCE? Meanwhile, Yerevan and Stepanakert have time and again stated their support of the agreement.

 

If Baku thinks this agreement imperfect, it could be amended or replaced by another one. However, it is clear that Azerbaijan prefers the mounting casualties so as to aggravate tensions and pursue their hysterical propaganda.

 

According to Daniel Fried, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs armed revenge will entail grave consequences and ruin Azerbaijan's future.

[hosank]

personally, i think that if a war starts again, the artsakh civilians, per say, would not necessarily be directly affected because the fighting will go on in the uninhabitated buffer zone. armenian forces are too well equipped, and well dug in, thus it would be a static war, till azeri forces are depleated..

 

(and hopefully we will take that opportunity to take back shahumian..utik and naxichevan_

[AK-47]

personally, i think that if a war starts again, the artsakh civilians, per say, would not necessarily be directly affected because the fighting will go on in the uninhabitated buffer zone. armenian forces are too well equipped, and well dug in, thus it would be a static war, till azeri forces are depleated..

Yes and in addition to being very well dug in, nature is on our side. The north is mountainous, southern Artsakh is mountainous and most of the border between Artsakh and what is called as "azeri territory" is where we are heavily defended. It will be an uphill battle for those punks if they decide that there is 100% chance of war, as their monkey of a defence minister said today.

[Balaclava]

I don't want war.

[AK-47]

Nagorno-Karabakh

The risk of a thaw

 

IT MAY be the most combustible place in Europe. Were it to reignite, the effects could be dire. Yet the world takes little interest in Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous enclave disputed by Armenians and Azerbaijanis, preferring to see it as just another “frozen conflict”. The fear is that it may be thawing.

 

A war that killed 25,000 people ended in a ceasefire in 1994, leaving Armenians in possession of the province (which already had an Armenian majority in Soviet times, but was part of Azerbaijan), plus a long ribbon of Azerbaijani territory that the Armenians treat as a “buffer zone”. The trenches across the ceasefire line have moved closer, and shots are often exchanged; 30 soldiers have been killed this year. There are no peacekeepers, only a tiny unarmed group of international observers. Even they are no longer monitoring the ceasefire after a diplomatic dispute.

 

Suspicions in both countries have stymied any peace talks. Both are expanding defence spending. Oil-rich Azerbaijan takes in as much as $20 billion a year in oil revenues. President Ilham Aliev has promised that his military budget, now $1 billion a year, will overtake Armenia's total public spending. On October 30th he said, “We should be ready at any moment to liberate the occupied territories by military means.”

 

A meeting of the two countries' foreign ministers this week offered only a fading chance for an agreement on a framework peace deal. The hope had been that the two presidents might accept a statement of basic principles that postpones final decisions on sovereignty, while Armenians withdraw from occupied territory and the borders reopen. Unfortunately both countries face presidential elections next year, so their political leaders prefer not to risk accusations of making deals with the enemy.

 

A full-blown war may still be unlikely in the immediate future. But as a recent report from the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, “Risking War”, points out, the most dangerous moment may come in 2012, when Azerbaijani oil revenues start falling and Mr Aliev's government may feel the country's military edge over Armenia is at its greatest.

 

Nagorno-Karabakh sits in a strategically vital region, surrounded by Georgia, Russia, Iran and Turkey. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline runs close to the ceasefire line. It would be easy for even a small clash to get out of hand. An official who has dealt with the dispute for years quotes Anton Chekhov's maxim that, if a gun is hanging on the wall in the first act, it will always go off by the play's end.

 

Source: http://www.economist.com/world/europe/disp...ory_id=10225045

Edited November 30, 2007 by AK-47

[AVO]

Good find AK