Revolution In Armenia?

[Dave]

Do you think a Revolution similar to the Rose, Velvet, and Tulip Revolutions would soon happen in Armenia?

[kakachik77]

I believe it happened when Levon Ter-Petrosyan resigned and Kocharyan took over.

[Stormig]

Do you think a Revolution similar to the Rose, Velvet, and Tulip Revolutions would soon happen in Armenia?

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Apricot?

[kakachik77]

Armenia is a special case...

 

1. Diaspora

2. Genocide issue and most Western countries not recognizing it.

Why would Armenia turn MORE pro-west when that same West (and I mean US here) is more pro-Turkish in most issues.

3. Armenia never had a post Soviet ex-communist leader.

4. Armenia's economy has shown considerable progress towards market economy (#1 in CIS).

5. The Karabagh issue would not permit for turbulence in the government.

6. Historically Russia has been a reliable ally (not US, France or England).

[Nakharar]

You raised some good points. Armenia is definitely in much better shape economically than either Georgia and Azerbaijan. The unfortunate thing is that this economic growth is coupled with the ongoing exodus and the return of hard currency from abroad. We might pay a high price in the future. Also there is a healthy and viable opposition in Armenia unlike its other two neighbors who are under the thumb of its leaders. Its organizational structure and institutions, however corrupt or inefficient they may be, are much more estalished.

[MiG-35]

Armenia is a special case...

1. Diaspora

2. Genocide issue and most Western countries not recognizing it.

Why would Armenia turn MORE pro-west when that same West (and I mean US here) is more pro-Turkish in most issues.

3. Armenia never had a post Soviet ex-communist leader.

4. Armenia's economy has shown considerable progress towards market economy (#1 in CIS).

5. The Karabagh issue would not permit for turbulence in the government.

6. Historically Russia has been a reliable ally (not US, France or England).

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Exactly!

[MosJan]

SCENARIO OF A COLORFUL REVOLUTION IN ARMENIA IS POSSIBLY IN PROCESS

 

The ghost of revolution roaming in post-soviet states will make our authorities reconsider the foreign policy if we, certainly, do not want to appear under the ruins of new geopolitical events.

 

Daily Azg talks with Stepan Safarian, expert from the Center for National and International Studies.

 

- Amidst nowaday geopolitical developments, Armenia's integration into the EU is viewed as the only reliable path for progress. But it's not a primary issue today for our state. And Putin's visit showed, to put it roughly, that we cannot pin hopes on our ally any more.

 

- I think that our state is not to be jerky as regards its foreign policy doctrines, thinking that it may pose a threat to the existence of authorities or even the state. An impasse emerges. It turns out that we stressed things that needed fewer accents. It turns out that it was useless, for one, to cooperate with Russia in military sphere as who will the Russian troops defend us from if Turkey becomes an EU member? From the EU?

 

But does the solution of different issues concerning our security go hand in hand with the civilized divorce from Russia? If the agreement of Collective Security of the CIS countries is also viewed in the context of civilized divorce, if the agreement will be annulled if not today then tomorrow, what kind of security system will we have?

 

There is a serious demand within Armenia today to stick to the European path. Our Center conducted a poll last year on this matter. 64 percent of respondents were for European integration believing that Armenia will join the EU in future.

 

- In effect, our complementary policy did not justify itself.

 

- The complementary policy is for states that have covered certain distance. Generally we need 3 levels to pass to complementary policy.

 

The first one is when we take our stand in our own country, and the state productively organizes its socio-political life. The second one is the level of competitive strength, i.e. our potential to compete with other states and the third one is creating a network with other states. I mean that complementarism is a kind of network thinking. That's a truism that we should have known. Without having overcome first two stages we declared the third one.

 

- Based on what you said, do you think it possible that Armenia will become an axis of the next colorful revolution?

 

- Definitely yes. There are several moments that stand for my assertion. Particularly, the West's complaints reflected in numerous reports on Armenia. Secondly, the USA is somehow controlling this process. Last year US senators, congressmen and high-ranking officials from the State Department sent letters to 9 CIS leaders who had previously signed a statement against the OSCE. The CIS states that received America's letters are the ones where upheaval was to be expected. This list includes Leonid Kuchma and the Kyrgyz president and apparently all other state leaders who hinted of living through their last days in power.

 

The next important issue is that the inner political structure of Armenia did not reflect the outer picture of the rapidly changing world. The elections of 2002-2003 did not bring about changes of the system. We live with our old configurations in a changed world. And this situation leaves door open for revolution.

 

- In this context how do you see our confrontation with Azerbaijan over Artsax issue?

 

At the Congress hearings in US last month an opinion was voiced about desirability of changes especially in Armenia. It was mentioned that the Armenian Diaspora strongly stymies putting pressure on Armenia.

 

Everything depends on how things will develop in Azerbaijan. If we accept that the parliamentary election in fall of the current year will be free, the opposition will take seats at the parliament and the authorities will put up with it, then I think Armenian issues will be viewed separately. But if elections in Azerbaijan are ragged, which is highly possible, then the two states will face change of power for the sake of Artsax issue.

 

- Is that possible that a scenario for Armenia is already launched?

 

- It's not excluded but telling the truth I was more concerned with Putin's visit when he declared that he came to Yerevan on the Armenia side's invitation. Armenia's strivings to keep to the Russian track and developing mutual relations may be fatal for the authorities. I mean that extra elections may well be held.

 

- Does that mean that the West may intervene?

 

- Yes I do, especially when the political system is on a very low level of legitimacy.

 

By Karine Danielian