MosJan

Finding The Next Flashpoint in US – Russia Relations Since the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991, US-Russian relations repeatedly have been hit by surprise developments. In just the last couple of years, unexpected events have included Edward Snowden’s leaks, Crimea, Donbas, Syria, the Russian Metrojet tragedy and the Turkish shoot-down of a Russian Su-24. The list could go on. In each case, Washington was forced to make reactive as opposed to proactive policies concerning Russia or its neighbors. This phenomenon is such that Russia’s ability to surprise is frequently presented as one of its prime tactical advantages over the West. The US Congress has even called for investigations into “intelligence failures” connected to Russia’s ability to surprise. The focus should not be on intelligence failures. Many Russians were equally surprised by these events. The problem is that Washington repeatedly has failed to look for potential flashpoints, and, therefore, has done nothing to prepare for them. Breaking the pattern, then, should begin with identifying the next potential hot spot. The list of potential problems is long, but the “frozen conflict” in Nagorno-Karabakh—an obscure region of the South Caucasus—stands out because it is far from frozen. The “hot” phase of the Karabakh war—the result of nationalist Armenia clashing with nationalist Azerbaijan during the twilight of the Soviet era—ended with a 1994 ceasefire agreement. Armenians ended up controlling the disputed Karabakh region along with a large swathe of Azerbaijan proper. The human cost was high: 20,000 killed, 1 million displaced, economies torn to shreds. After the war, Armenia fell firmly under Russia’s security blanket, while Azerbaijan looked to Turkey and the West, eager to find markets for its oil and gas. For the past two decades plus, the two combatants have failed to come to a lasting political settlement. That is now part of the problem because a renewed conflict would pit Armenia, Russia’s ally, against Azerbaijan, NATO-member Turkey’s ally. Of late, both Armenia and Azerbaijan have been testing the ceasefire; if it does crumble, the conflict has the potential to develop into another proxy war between Russia and the West. The current friction between Turkey and Russia over the Su-24 downing adds a new layer of complication to an already tense situation in the Caucasus, and has raised perceptions in the Caucasus of a heightened threat level. It does not have to be this way. The United States, Russia and France for much of the past 20 years led diplomatic efforts to manage the Karabakh conflict. These efforts have not brought peace, but they at least have prevented a renewal of large-scale fighting. Soldiers die each year, but clashes are largely contained to the front lines of the disputed territories. Peace remains elusive because neither Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev nor his Armenian counterpart Serzh Sargsyan really want the conflict resolved. The status quo of “no real war/no real peace” is useful to them because it allows their governments to justify authoritarian policies and divert popular attention from social, economic and political problems at home. In short, these leaders find it easier to blame their respective society’s ills on external enemies than to try to implement reforms. The problem now is the system of trilateral diplomacy that long kept large-scale fighting at bay in Karabakh is breaking down due to the broader erosion of East-West relations. As a result, the heat is being turned up on the long simmering conflict. Aggressive language is on the rise, as local economies struggle. This is particularly problematic in Azerbaijan, where the Aliyev administration is facing a fiscal crisis brought on by the plummeting price of oil and natural gas. Baku’s increasing reliance on authoritarian governing methods also has fueled rancor in its relations with the West, diminishing Washington’s ability to influence Azerbaijan on Karabakh. Over the past two years, occasional small-arms fire along the front lines has given way to artillery duels and mortar attacks, the downing of a helicopter, the use of drones and ambushes. The fighting claimed 72 lives in 2014, making it the bloodiest year since the ceasefire. Deaths this year look like they may have already surpassed that; fighting has moved beyond the traditional front lines to other areas of the border region. And villages have been targeted, leading to civilian deaths. In most cases, Azerbaijan appears to be testing Armenian resolve, but Armenia is responding with resounding force. Both sides are complicit in the spike of violence this year. Russia at times has played a helpful role in international negotiations; former Russian President Medvedev tried in vain to broker a resolution during his time in the Kremlin. At the same time, Russia also fuels the conflict by providing weapons to both sides. Eager to pull Azerbaijan back into its orbit, the Kremlin has authorized the sale of advanced weapons to Baku. This weapons flow has unnerved Armenia, which has sought to improve its relationship with the West, despite its alliance with Moscow. Keeping the Karabakh conflict in check would seem to be in the Kremlin’s interests. The last thing Moscow needs right now is a war next to its volatile North Caucasus region, and not too far from Syria—where the Russian military is risking becoming bogged down. With a lasting Karabakh peace settlement still looking illusive, the status quo probably suits the West too. Distracted by Syria, the Ukrainian conflict and growing terror threats at home, the West does not have the bandwidth to address yet another conflict. Another consideration is that instability in Armenia or Azerbaijan could provide a post-sanctions Iran with an opening to increase its influence in the Caucasus at Russian, Turkish and US expense. This would occur at the same time when Tehran is trying to expand its influence in Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East. Russia and the United States have a track record of at least trying to de-escalate the Karabakh conflict. Another war between Armenia and Azerbaijan is in nobody’s interest, and it is time to reinvigorate diplomacy to make sure there is not one. Editor’s note: Paul Stronski is a senior associate in the Carnegie Endowment’s Russia and Eurasia Program, where his research focuses on the relationship between Russia and neighboring countries in Central Asia and the South Caucasus. He was Director for Russia and Central Asia on the US National Security Council Staff from 2012 to 2014; he also has served as a research analyst in the US State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research, focusing on Russia and the South Caucasus. Finding The Next Flashpoint in US – Russia Relations by Paul Stronski, EurasiaNet

OPEC sees oil supply from non-group nations falling The IEA said OPEC’s decision last week to impose no ceiling on its output appeared to signal a renewed determination to maximise low-priced OPEC supply and drive out high-cost non-OPEC production regardless of price. Internationally traded Brent futures were at $40.35 a barrel, up 24 cents. Wednesday was the fourth straight day of falling prices. Baku, Fineko/abc.az. In its new report the Organization of Petroleum Exporter Countries (OPEC) confirmed its forecast for 2006 on the decline of oil production in Azerbaijan and deliveries of its oil to the world market. US crude futures were at $37.43 per barrel at 0631 GMT, up 27 cents from their last settlement, but still not far off this week’s seven-year lows below $37 per barrel. “This lack of congruence may add a level of confusion in the near term, adding a degree of uncertainty to what is really going on”, he said. “I think 2016 will be a year where we will have a lower price environment”, he told The Globe and Mail on the sidelines of the Paris climate summit.

Dispatches: Finally Getting Tough on Azerbaijan Some of Azerbaijan’s international partners are finally taking exceptional steps to signal their alarm over the government’s serious crackdown on human rights. The Secretary General of the Council of Europe Thorbjørn Jagland today announced an official inquiry into Azerbaijan’s implementation of the European Convention on Human Rights. Jagland noted rightly that this rare move was triggered by European Court of Human Rights findings on “an arbitrary application of the law in Azerbaijan, notably in order to silence critical voices and limit freedom of speech.” Jagland stated he is “particularly alarmed when individuals are deprived of their liberty due to an abuse of power by a country’s legal authorities.” With so many leading human rights defenders and journalists behind bars on politically-motivated charges and dozens of NGOs and media outlets closed or severely curtailed, Jagland’s unambiguous message shows leadership, with no time left to lose on securing an end to the disastrous human rights situation in the country. Also today, across the Atlantic, United States Representative Chris Smith (R, NJ) has introduced draft legislation entitled the “Azerbaijan Democracy Act,” calling on the US government to promote “a stable, democratic Azerbaijan,” and for the Azerbaijani government to free all “political prisoners.” The bill calls for, among other things, visa sanctions on (unnamed) senior Azerbaijani officials responsible for the crackdown. These steps should send an unmistakable message to the Azerbaijani government that its crackdown, underway for nearly two years with the clear intention to decimate civil society, will come with a price. Azerbaijan’s other key partners, namely the European Union and its member states, should consider equally meaningful and concrete steps. Without such commitment to principles and human rights protection, there is little hope of reversing Azerbaijan’s devastating human right trajectory. Region / Country Europe/Central Asia Azerbaijan

on the other hand >>> US threatens Azerbaijan with sanctions due to China 18 December 2015, 16:39 (GMT+04:00) http://en.trend.az/azerbaijan/politics/2471131.html Baku, Azerbaijan, Dec. 18 By Elmira Tariverdiyeva – Trend: Much has been said about the US-China confrontation. There is nothing new or surprising in the constant opaque games of the two powers. On the one hand, by maintaining the apparent calm, on other hand, Washington and Beijing are fighting for influence in every strategically important region. Unfortunately, at this time Baku was also indirectly affected in this confrontation. Baku has recently signed several important documents with China. Of course, they could not but cause the US zealous attention and its painful reaction. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev paid a historic visit to Beijing. An important Memorandum of Understanding was also signed to jointly promote the creation of the Silk Road economic belt following President Aliyev’s meeting with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Less than a week has passed since that historic visit but the US has already made an unprejudiced gesture towards Azerbaijan. The US Helsinki Commission submitted an anti-Azerbaijani bill to the Congress. The bill envisages imposing the sanctions against Azerbaijani officials. It is clear that such kind of draft law is a measure of warning, which is just a signal for Baku. However, given the fact that the United States never does anything without any reason, it becomes clear that Washington became “jealous” of Baku to Beijing and makes it clear that it perceives such a turn by Azerbaijan from West to East as a kind of threat to its influence in the region. One can understand the US: the Silk Road Economic Belt project, which has the prospective to become the most important transit artery between Asia and Europe, one of the key places in which belongs to Azerbaijan, as well as other important projects, will undoubtedly strengthen China's influence in the region. In particular, Azerbaijan is the initiator of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway construction project, the country has built the largest port in the Caspian Sea, a shipyard, has purchased new vessels. In addition, the country hosts the headquarters of the TRACECA international transport corridor. Today, China has three ways to the West: the first way is Russia from the northern borders of Azerbaijan up to the Arctic, the second way is Iran from the southern border of our country till the Persian Gulf. It is obvious that the most politically beneficial route for China is Azerbaijan. Given that Azerbaijan and China have recently signed 10 documents, including a declaration on friendship and intensifying the cooperation, as well as projects in the spheres of education, transport, energy, railway and so on, Washington has something to worry about. China has already laid the foundation for mutually beneficial cooperation and for strengthening its economic and political positions in the region and the US has no choice but try to prevent its archenemy from entering the strategically important Caspian Sea region. Unfortunately, for this purpose, the US has chosen such an undiplomatic way which will cool down the relations between Baku and Washington. --- Elmira Tariverdiyeva is the head of Trend Agency's Russian News Service

Azerbaijan announced about sanction against the USA. http://haqqin.az/news/59825 Азербайджан вводит санкции против США 23 Декабря 2015, 18:29 Как известно, Хельсинкская комиссия США во главе с Кристофером Смитом 17 декабря представила в Конгресс законопроект, предусматривающий введение санкций против Азербайджана, передает пресс-служба Милли Меджлиса. Законопроект, который носит явный антиазербайджанский характер, предлагает пересмотреть отношения с нашей страной, наложить санкции на азербайджанских чиновников и другие меры, вызвал резкую реакцию Баку. Заместитель председателя комитета Милли Меджлиса по политике и государственному строительству Ровшан Рзаев выступил с законодательной инициативой выразить свое отношение к антиазербайджанскому документу К.Смита. Депутат Р.Рзаев подготовил проект резолюции Милли Меджлиса «О правах человека в США». Проект будет рассмотрен на совместном заседании Комитета по международным и межпарламентским связям и Комитетом по правам человека Милли Меджлиса. В документе говорится, что Азербайджан за годы своей независимости неоднократно сталкивался с политикой двойных стандартов со стороны различных организаций США. В проекте отмечается, что некоторые американские организации под различным предлогом пытаются вмешиваться во внутреннюю и внешнюю политику Азербайджана. В проекте напоминается о том, что США, которые готовят ежегодные отчеты по правам человека в мире, постоянно изыскивают причины, чтобы не подписывать международные соглашения по правам человека. На сегодняшний день США ратифицировали лишь четыре договора из 14 основополагающих документов ООН, регламентирующих права человека. До сих пор к Конвенции по правам детей не присоединились лишь две страны - Сомали и США. Проект азербайджанского парламентария предлагает прекратить сотрудничество с США в области энергетики, безопасности и в военной сфере, приостановить участие азербайджанских военных в миротворческой операции в Афганистане, запретить транзит военных и прочих грузов США через территорию Азербайджана, а также использование для этих целей инфраструктуры в Азербайджане, начать процедуру отзыва США с поста сопредседателя Минской группы ОБСЕ

jannnn

wow furks ?? no way .. no way furks do that..

Putin: The Russian army music band alone is enough to overthrow Turkish president; I urge Erdoğan to study World War II history meticulously According to Moscow Times, the Russian president Vladimir Putin has sharply rebuked Turkey’s war-like policy in the troubled Middle-East and reiterated his country’s firm stance in supporting a political solution for Syria’s nearly five-year civil war. “The American administration has turned a deaf ear to the international community’s calls to end its double-track policy in the Middle-East. I told Americans that you cannot fight terrorism unless you desist from backing the main ally of ISIS which is Turkey's Erdoğan. In fact, The Russian army band alone is enough to unseat Erdoğan and terminate his malevolent interfering in Syria, but we seek a peaceful resolution to the current standoff,” Moskovskaya Pravda cited the Russian President as saying in a meeting with State Duma's Defense Committee on Tuesday. Ignoring Iraq’s sovereignty, the Turkish army sent a battalion near the Iraqi city of Mosul, allegedly to train Kurdish militias which prompted Baghdad to summon Turkish ambassador to protest at the Ankara’s increasingly dubious role in the ongoing war with the Islamic State. Erdoğan must understand, added Mr. Putin, that he cannot attack and infringe on the international law like a hooligan and Erdoğan also must realize that Russians defeated much more vicious dictators than him and his liking. “So-called Mr. President [Erdoğan], you must read the history of Hitler and his bitter downfall. Your dreams of reviving the Ottoman Empire are perilous for Turkey and already doomed to fail,” said Putin. Russia and Turkey continue to trade accusations since Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet http://www.awdnews.com/top-news/putin-the-russian-army-music-band-alone-is-enough-to-overthrow-turkish-president-i-urge-erdo%C4%9Fan-to-study-world-war-ii-history-meticulously

i wounder how much will this effect the price of OIL ? might it be part of it's agenda to bring price of oil up ??

Բարի տեսանք Յովհաննէս

JAnnnn

Video Shows Israeli Commandos Rescuing Wounded Jihadists From Syria Video Nearly every night, Israeli special ops forces secretly rescue wounded fighters in Syria, among them jihadists, as seen in dramatic footage the Daily Mail captured while embedded with the military force. The Daily Mail reported that the secret nighttime missions have saved more than 2,000 people since 2013, some of them members of Al Qaeda-affiliated groups in Syria. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3315347/Watch-heart-pounding-moment-Israeli-commandos-save-Islamic-militants-Syrian-warzone-risking-lives-sworn-enemies.html#v-1005669583935587312 http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/12/08/14/2F0768E000000578-3315347-image-a-1_1449584136653.jpg

this should go to Commedistan but it's ok TURKISH GOVERNMENT: WE CAN OCCUPY RUSSIA IN SEVEN DAYS "Since the crash of" Sukhoi-24 "russian, Russia has taken every conceivable opportunity to undermine Turkey. Certainly my government behaves like a mature and experienced government, but our patience has limits. Faced with Russian efforts, we have, no fear, no remorse. We act with moderation, to bring our relations back to normal, if necessary, I assure you ,we can can occupy Russia in less than seven days with NATO and our regional allies " The Pentagon has responded to a globally-released 'Kill List', asking law enforcement to give extra protection for military personnel whose personal information was released, News Channel 10 reports. http://de.awdnews.com/top-news/turkish-government-we-can-occupy-russia-in-seven-days

still no word from Hovannnes ??

Turkey’s patience with Russia "has a limit" - media Turkey’s patience with Russia December 14, 2015 - 18:49 AMT PanARMENIAN.Net - Turkey's foreign minister said Ankara's patience with Russia "has a limit" after Moscow's "exaggerated" reaction to a weekend naval incident between the two countries, an Italian newspaper reported on Monday, December 14, according to Reuters. A Russian destroyer fired warning shots at a Turkish vessel in the Aegean on Sunday to avoid a collision and summoned the Turkish military attache over the incident. "Ours was only a fishing boat, it seems to me that the reaction of the Russian naval ship was exaggerated," Mevlut Cavusoglu told Italian daily Corriere della Sera in an interview. "Russia and Turkey certainly have to re-establish the relations of trust that we have always had, but our patience has a limit," Cavusoglu said. The incident is likely to heighten tensions between the two nations who are at odds over Syria and Turkey's downing of a Russian warplane last month. Cavusoglu said Russia had already "put itself in a ridiculous position" with accusations by its President Vladimir Putin that Turkey had shot down the jet to protect oil supplies from Islamic State. He also criticized Russia's military intervention in Syria, saying it was aimed at propping up the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, not combating Islamic State. "Unfortunately Russia is not in Syria to fight terrorists," he said, adding that only 8 percent of its air strikes had been aimed at Islamic State while 92 percent were against other groups hostile to Assad. Cavusoglu also said air strikes were not sufficient to defeat Islamic State and soldiers on the ground were necessary, according to the interview.

Ռուսաստանը 3 պայման է առաջադրել Թուրքիային` կապված Սու-24-ի միջադեպի հետ Թուրքիայում Ռուսաստանի դեսպան Անդրեյ Կառլովը 3 պայման է հայտնել Մոսկվայի և Անկարայի միջև հարաբերություններում ստեղծված ճգնաժամը հաղթահարելու համար, որն ի հայտ է եկել թուրքական օդուժի կողմից ռուսական ռազմական ինքնաթիռը խոցելուց հետո: Ինչպես մեջբերում է Hurriyet Daily News-ը` Կառլովի խոսքով` առաջին հերթին Թուրքիան պետք է ներողություն խնդրի Սու-24-ի վրա հարձակում գործելու համար, որը հանգեցրել է երկու ռուս զինծառայողի մահվան: Երկրորդ հերթին, Ռուսաստանը կարծում է, որ Թուրքիայի իշխանությունները պետք է գտնեն և պատժեն տվյալ միջադեպի պատասխանատուներին: Բացի այդ, Թուրքիան պետք է փոխհատուցի միջադեպից պատճառված վնասը, որը կրել է ռուսական կողմը: Դիվանագետը ընդգծել է, որ ինքնանետում իրականացրած ռուս օդաչուի վրա կրակել է Թուրքիայի քաղաքացին:

its a great site to see greater atmosphere to be in il get some pics for you all soon.. till then this was for 2015 year

Astavts Hogin Lusavori Zoheri, mer karaVorutyann el tasib ta mi qich or es mer HAyraQaghaq@ Veranoroqen.. lutsen xndirnern mardkants..

Sad Anniversary: 27 years on, post-earthquake rehabilitation not over in Armenia yet When a powerful earthquake struck near the town of Spitak in 1988, razing several towns and villages in the north of Armenia to the ground, it seemed that the kind of solidarity that people back then had would help rebuild within a few years. But today, 27 years after the natural disaster that killed 25,000 and left more than half a million people homeless, a “disaster area” has not yet become an obsolete phrase in the vocabulary of Armenians. Some of those who survived the December 7, 1988 earthquake in Spitak, Gyumri (then Leninakan), Vanadzor (then Kirovakan) and elsewhere in Armenia as well as the generations that came after the earthquake to live in makeshift housing feel embarrassed today not only because their vital problems have not been solved, but also because the very date of the disaster, once colored in black in the nation’s calendar, is being forgotten. When a state program aimed at assisting the homeless families of the earthquake area in getting new homes was launched in earnest in 2008, the priority beneficiaries of it would be those who lost apartments in residential buildings. Problems of people who lost their homes in rural communities were also on the agenda. According to Yevgenia Atayan, the head of the Department of Housing Policy and Communal Infrastructure of the Ministry of Urban Development, problems connected with homeless families in the earthquake area will be solved within a year. “Since 2008, out of the 5,363 families recognized as beneficiaries of the program, 4,398 have seen their housing problems solved. The housing problems of the remaining 965 families are expected to be solved before the end of 2016. The Ministry of Urban Development will thus complete the disaster zone housing program,” Atayan said at a press conference on December 4. But according Vahan Tumasyan, who heads the Shirak Center NGO, today in Gyumri alone there are 2,700 families who live in makeshift housing. Of them, only a thousand are included in the waiting lists of state assistance programs as beneficiaries. The discrepancy between official and unofficial figures is due to the fact that over years families originally included in assistance programs have grown larger as new generations created families of their own. In many cases when the original beneficiary family got a home, some of its members had to remain in temporary shelters for objective reasons. Officially, however, they ceased to be considered “homeless” and beneficiaries of state assistance programs. “Twenty-seven years after the earthquake, people continue to live in extremely difficult conditions. Armenia can be registered in the Guinness Book of Records as a country that has been implementing a program on liquidating the consequences of a disaster the longest. Even rehabilitation after World War II did not take that long,” Tumasyan said. Receiving Gyumri Mayor Samvel Balasanyan in Yerevan on Friday, President Serzh Sargsyan acknowledged the problem. “According to the Ministry of Urban Development, Gyumri has approximately 250 families who were affected by the earthquake and need homes. I am very well aware that the number of people who need housing in Gyumri is larger, but there are such people throughout Armenia. Tens of thousands of citizens need housing in Armenia today. These problems will, no doubt, be solved in due course,” he said. Still, many in Gyumri remain skeptical about government pledges. Many are also angered by the decision of the city authorities to have a New Year tree installed in the main square before December 7, which remains a mournful day for people in the earthquake-affected areas as well as for many across Armenia. “Who remembers today what disaster happened to Gyumri? If they remembered, they would not have set up a New Year tree still in November, but would have waited at least until after December 7. Or maybe with this New Year tree they want to show that everything is good, that there are no people in temporary shelter in the city,” Karine Sargsyan, a 40-year-old doctor from Gyumri, complained. The points raised by the woman, who also questioned the wisdom of appointing a referendum on constitutional amendments for December 6, appear to be shared by many in Gyumri. Many believe that considering the traditionally strong pro-opposition sentiments in Armenia’s second largest city (leading opposition groups campaigned against changing the Constitution), the day for the referendum has been chosen so that people in Gyumri do not take to the streets and protest the outcome of the voting on a day that marks the earthquake anniversary. Speaking to ArmeniaNow ahead of the referendum, Karine Sargsyan predicted that Gyumri would still mostly vote “No” in the December 6 ballot. “There has been no positive change during all these years, the city is being gradually abandoned by its people,” she added. The prospect of December 6 later becoming a public holiday (marking the possible passage of constitutional amendments, but, in essence, of a new Constitution) had also raised concerns among many who think it is inappropriate to have a public holiday on the eve of December 7. Still in October, however, head of the parliamentary faction of the ruling Republican Party of Armenia Vahram Baghdasaryan said that officially Armenia’s Constitution Day will remain July 5 to mark the day when the original version of the Constitution was adopted in 1995. But he added that December 6 could still be marked as constitutional reform day. http://armenianow.com/society/68434/when_a_powerful_earthquake_struck_near_the_town_of_spitak_in_1988_razing_several_towns_and_villages_in_the_north_o

Earthquake Victims Remembered Today, December 7, Armenians remember the victims of a devastating earthquake that hit the country’s northern provinces 27 years ago. Prime Minister Hovik Abrahamyan was among those who went to Gyumri to pay homage to the memory of 25,000 people (according to official estimates) killed in the natural disaster http://armenianow.com/sites/default/files/img/imagecache/600x400/gyumri-earthquake1988-27years.jpg

http://hetq.am/static/content/gyumri/erkrasharj/2015/DSC02291.jpg