The Golden Opportunity To Settle Nkr Conflict

[MosJan]

GORAN LENMARKER CREATES 'GOLDEN' OPPORTUNITY TO SETTLE NKR CONFLICT

 

Regnum agency informed that Goran Lenmarker, OSCE PACE special representative of Nagorno Artsax conflict settlement, stated that today a "golden" opportunity is created for the settlement of Nagorno Artsax issue, based on "victory-victory" order. In case this order is carried out, both Armenia and Azerbaijan will suffer the least loses. The diplomat told about that during the 14th session of PACE in Washington. He emphasized that Nagorno Artsax conflict is not frozen. "People are being killed at the border each year," he said.

 

Lenmarker offered to follow the example of the Europeans, when "democracy and integration become basic components for peace."

 

He didn’t specify what "victory-victory" order means in particular. The last point of OSCE PACE formula on Nagorno Artsax settlement says the following: "OSCE PACE advices Azerbaijan and Armenia to follow the formation of "victory –victory" situation, based on the current suggestions on settlement that is supported by the European structures."

[skhara]

What?

 

This doesn't explain anything.

[Z'areh]

According to Azeri reporting:

 

Assa-Irada, Azerbaijan

July 5 2005

 

 

OSCE PA rapporteur refrains from calling Armenia aggressor

 

 

 

Baku, July 4, AssA-Irada

Three powerful countries should exist in the region and they should

be reckoned with, otherwise, chaos will emerge, said the OSCE

Parliamentary Assembly rapporteur on the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict

over Upper Garabagh Goran Lennmarker. `We cannot allow formation of

mini-states in South Caucasus', he said.

Presenting his report on the Garabagh conflict at the OSCE PA session

in Washington, Lennmarker said both Azerbaijan and Armenia realize

that the dispute is impeding their development. He also said

Azerbaijan should assure Armenians that there is not threat to their

security, calling on Azeri politicians and parliament members to

refrain from `hostile statements'.

`Armenia's primary concern is its national security. Azerbaijan

should take this into account.'

Lennmarker decisively stated that Azeri territories `cannot stay

occupied'. He also suggested that demilitarization activities be

carried out in Azerbaijan's land after it is freed from Armenian

occupation. The rapporteur also said that `the report will not be

favored by Armenians'.

Lennmarker refrained from regarding Armenia as aggressor, saying that

such terms `pose risks'.

Azerbaijani representatives at OSCE PA earlier voiced discontent over

the fact that the mentioned report did not indicate Armenia as

aggressor.*

[Z'areh]

According to Armenian reporting:

 

 

Lennmarker: the best way is to unite Artsax with Armenia

 

06.07.2005 15:23

 

YEREVAN (YERKIR) - The OSCE Parliamentary Assembly continued to discuss the report made by Goran Lennmarker, the special representative on the Artsax conflict, at its session in Washington on Tuesday, Armenpress reported.

 

Speaking to an Azerbaijani news agency following the discussion, Lennmarker noted, "By appointing a special representative we intended to engage the parliamentarians of Armenia and Azerbaijan."

 

In his turn, Satar Safarov of the Azeribaijani delegation, has told a Baku-based newspaper that the Swedish politician has said at the closed session that "the recognition of the Nagorno Artsax Republic by Europe is unacceptable and would lead to many negative consequences," adding, however, that the best way to ensure Armenians' security is the unification of Artsax with Armenia.

 

The Azerbaijani delegation was also informed that the Minsk Group is to make specific proposals for the conflict resolution before the Kazan meeting.

[ED]

Armenia, Azerbaijan "Close To Artsax Deal"

 

 

By Harry Tamrazian

 

Armenia and Azerbaijan are close to hammering out a peace accord on Nagorno-Artsax that will allow its ethnic Armenian residents to decide their status in an internationally supervised referendum, according to sources in Yerevan privy to the negotiating process.

 

The high-level sources, speaking on the condition of anonymity, have told RFE/RL that the conflicting parties have already agreed on the key points of a peace deal that could be formalized as early as this year or at the beginning of next. At the heart of it, they say, is the idea of a referendum in which the Artsax Armenians will decide whether they want to be independent, become a part of Armenia or return under Azerbaijani rule.

 

Some Armenian and Western officials have hinted at the possibility of such a vote over the past year that has seen major progress toward the resolution of the Artsax dispute. Presidents Ilham Aliev and Robert Kocharian could build upon it at their next meeting scheduled to take place in the Russian city of Kazan on August 27.

 

The Armenian sources claimed that the referendum would be held within 10 to 15 years from the signing of a peace agreement and would follow the return of five of the seven occupied Azerbaijani districts around Artsax. They said the Lachin district, which serves as the shortest overland link between Armenia and Artsax, would remain under Armenian control, while agreement has yet to be reached on the seventh occupied territory, Kelbajar. The Armenians are ready to pull out of Kelbajar only after a date is set for the referendum, while the Azerbaijani side is demanding its liberation along with the five other districts, the sources said.

 

Such a settlement would involve a combination of the so-called “package” and “step-by-step” strategies of conflict resolution that are preferred by the Armenian and Azerbaijani sides respectively. Officials in Yerevan and Stepanakert have indicated in recent months that they are ready to drop their insistence on a single agreement resolving all contentious issues at once provided that they get other guarantees of continued Armenian control of Artsax.

 

Azerbaijan would recognize the Armenian control at least until the referendum in Artsax, the Yerevan sources said, adding that the peace deal also calls for the deployment of peacekeeping troops from countries that are not members of the OSCE’s Minsk Group. They said this is a compromise arrangement resulting from Azerbaijani opposition to Russian participation in the peacekeeping force and Armenia’s strong objections to any Turkish military presence in the conflict zone.

 

Meanwhile, the Minsk Group’s American, French and Russian co-chairs began on Monday another round of regional shuttle diplomacy that will take them to Azerbaijan, Armenia and Artsax. The mediators have always been tight-lipped about the content of their proposals, citing the confidentiality of the peace proposals.

 

Their visit is expected to be followed by yet another meeting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders which will precede the scheduled Aliev-Kocharian talks in Kazan.

 

 

http://www.armenialiberty.org/armeniarepor...8794800B116.ASP

[skhara]

The Armenian sources claimed that the referendum would be held within 10 to 15 years from the signing of a peace agreement and would follow the return of five of the seven occupied Azerbaijani districts around Artsax. They said the Lachin district, which serves as the shortest overland link between Armenia and Artsax, would remain under Armenian control, while agreement has yet to be reached on the seventh occupied territory, Kelbajar. The Armenians are ready to pull out of Kelbajar only after a date is set for the referendum, while the Azerbaijani side is demanding its liberation along with the five other districts, the sources said.

 

I can't help but get a very uneasy feeling about this. Withdrawl before referendum seems like madness to me? How can Azeris be trusted?

[Nakharar]

This doesn't make sense at all. Aliyev knows what the outcome of the referendum will be. Why would he sign his death warrant?

[skhara]

Good point Nakharar.

 

This doesn't make sense at all. All we ever hear from Azerbaijan is threatening sabre-rattling, and now they would agree to a referendum?

[Dave]

http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2005/...8c131fbbb6.html

 

12 July 2005 (RFE/RL) -- Armenia and Azerbaijan are close to hammering out a peace accord on Nagorno-Artsax that will allow its ethnic Armenian residents to decide their status in an internationally supervised referendum, according to sources in Yerevan privy to the negotiating process.

 

 

The high-level sources, speaking on the condition of anonymity, have told RFE/RL that the conflicting parties have already agreed on the key points of a peace deal that could be formalized as early as this year or at the beginning of 2006. At the heart of it, they say, is the idea of a referendum in which the Artsax Armenians will decide whether they want to be independent, become a part of Armenia, or return to Azerbaijani rule.

 

Some Armenian and Western officials have hinted at the possibility of such a vote over the past year, which has seen major progress toward the resolution of the Artsax dispute. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian President Robert Kocharian could build upon it at their next meeting scheduled to take place in the Russian city of Kazan on 27 August.

 

The Armenian sources claimed that the referendum would be held within 10 to 15 years from the signing of a peace agreement and would follow the return of five of the seven occupied Azerbaijani districts around Artsax. They said the Lachin District, which serves as the shortest overland link between Armenia and Artsax, would remain under Armenian control, while agreement has yet to be reached on the seventh occupied territory, Kelbajar. The Armenians are ready to pull out of Kelbajar only after a date is set for the referendum, while the Azerbaijani side is demanding its liberation, along with that of the five other districts, the sources said.

 

Such a settlement would involve a combination of the so-called package and step-by-step strategies of conflict resolution that are preferred by the Armenian and Azerbaijani sides, respectively. Officials in Yerevan and Stepanakert have indicated in recent months that they are ready to drop their insistence on a single agreement resolving all contentious issues at once provided that they get other guarantees of continued Armenian control of Artsax.

 

Azerbaijan would recognize the Armenian control at least until the referendum in Artsax, the Yerevan sources said, adding that the peace deal also calls for the deployment of peacekeeping troops from countries that are not members of the OSCE’s Minsk Group. They said this is a compromise arrangement resulting from Azerbaijani opposition to Russian participation in the peacekeeping force and Armenia’s strong objections to any Turkish military presence in the conflict zone.

 

Meanwhile, the Minsk Group’s American, French, and Russian co-chairs began on 11 July another round of regional shuttle diplomacy that will take them to Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Artsax. The mediators have always been tight-lipped about the content of their proposals, citing the confidentiality of the peace proposals.

 

Their visit is expected to be followed by yet another meeting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders, which will precede the scheduled Aliev-Kocharian talks in Kazan.

[Dave]

I hope the lands between Armenia and Karabagh (Karvajar) are not given to our most beloved neighbour. Karabah would be encircled by Azerbaijan! They can take back the decimated city of Aghdam for all I care...

[Z'areh]

They talk of "tight lipped" officials and then give some details about a possible resolution. So these officials are not tight lipped after all.

 

This looks like more than a trial balloon to simply gauge the public's reaction, but they have left enough wriggle room for the sides to claim "misrepresentation".

 

I also have an uneasy feeling about this, because it flies in the face of all those pronouncements by the Armenian side that Artsax Armenians have democratically and legally seceded based on the existing Soviet rules at the time. Add to that all those

declarations of FM Oskanyan about Karabkh never returning to Azerbaijan, etc...

 

We'll have to wait and see what exactly will be stipulated in an agreement which so far has kept the Artsax authorities out of the negotiating table. To me the most important thing in any future referendum is to see who will be eligible in participating in this referendum and how the Armenian side is going to control those who pop up for voting.

 

Let's not forget the "referendum" of 1939 in Alexandretta, where voters were registered from Adana and Gaziantep to tip the balance against the majority non-Turkish inhabitants of what became Hatay province of Turkey.

 

Armenia of today is not the French controlled Syria of 1939, but the example is there to see how voting can be manipulated by the powers that are to achieve the required outcome, and call it a peaceful settlement.

[Dave]

No worries about that. As far as I know, there isn't an Azeri community in Karabagh.

[MosJan]

I don’t see anything on our land thats still occupied by azeris - #1 Shahumyan #2 Naxijevan

maybe at the bingeing azeris should release shahumyan or exchange for a part that we are holding

Step by Step

 

 

PS. forgat the Artsvashen and Getashen

[Z'areh]

No worries about that. As far as I know, there isn't an Azeri community in Karabagh.

style_images/master/snapback.png

 

There isn't now but there was before, and Azeris want to make sure they come back. They want to equalize the leadership of the Armenian Artsax republic with that of the "Azeri community of Artsax".

 

This is from today's Azg

 

<

 

On July 11, Yuri Merzlyakov (Russia), Steven Mann (USA) and Bernard Fassie (France) met with the Azerbaijani foreign minister Elmar Mamediarov. The so-called head of Artsax's Azeri community, Nizami Bahmanov, brought up some details after the meeting. According to Armenpress, the talks focused on opening a transport route from Azerbaijan to Armenia through Artsax's territory as well as returning the refugees to their permanent domiciles.

 

Bahmanov said that "the key issue is returning Azeris to their settlements" and "the status of the region cannot be settled without returning them to Nagorno Artsax". "There is advance in the talks, and we are hopeful that the public will be informed on August 26 after the meeting of Azeri and Armenian president in Kazan", Bahmanov said.>>>

 

Why would the OSCE negotiators meet with Bahmanov?????

Edited July 12, 2005 by Z'areh

[DominO123]

Artsax CONFLICT MAY BE SETTLED THIS YEAR

 

YEREVAN, JULY 12. ARMINFO. The Artsax conflict may be settled

already this year or in early 2006, a top diplomat says to Radio

Liberty.

 

Many issues have already been agreed on and the parties are now

working to overcome the last few contradictions in the text of the

settlement agreement.

 

The source says that the core of the agreement will be the conduct of

a referendum on the status of Artsax in 10-15 years. Azerbaijan

recognizes the de facto status of Artsax that is the right to

self-determination. Artsax will control Lachin. The 5 territories

Artsax is now controlling will be given back to Azerbaijan in

exchange for a referendum - to join Armenia, to join Azerbaijan or to

be independent.

 

The problem of peacekeeping has also be determined - keeping peace in

the zone will be countries other than the MG member states - this will

be acceptable to both Armenia and Azerbaijan as member to MG are both

Turkey and Russia.

 

The phased settlement scenario covers also Armenian-Turkish relations

- opening of border. As soon as the agreement is signed Turkey opens

its border with Armenia while Azerbaijan stops its blockade of

transport routes.

 

-------------

 

Who says the referendum results will be recognized by the international community? From when the allies had EVER respected their promisses in regard to Armenia.

[Nakharar]

Who in their right mind believes that such a referendum will ever take place? I can't imagine Azerbaijan agreeing to this considering their constant sabre rattling.

[Arpa]

Look at this news. Look who is bargaining with whom.

Why is the US indebted to them?

2.5 billion on top of the 2,500 billions already delivered?

=======

 

"Israel Seeks $2.2 Billion in US Aid for Gaza Pullout

By VOA News

11 July 2005

 

Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Shimon Peres says Israel will formally ask the United States for two-point-two billion dollars in additional aid to help fund Israel's planned withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.

 

Mr. Peres said Monday that Israel will use the money to remove and resettle Jewish settlers currently living in Gaza and in four West Bank enclaves targeted for closing. The pullout is scheduled to begin next month.

 

Israel's Haaretz newspaper says the Bush Administration has already agreed in principle to the aid.

 

It said an Israeli delegation planned to meet in Washington with U.S. officials on Monday to work on details of the package. A report that the meeting already took place could not be immediately confirmed.

 

National Security Council spokesman Fred Jones told VOA Washington has not approved the package since Israel has not yet made the request.

 

Some information for this report provided by AP."

=====

 

Under no circumstances should Azeries be allowed to get between Artsakh and Armenia, nowhere between Berdzor(Lachin) and Karvajar or even close to Syunik in th south. Aghdam must never be rebuilt and a straight line between Martuni and Martakert should be the frontier.

 

Survey this map.

http://www.armsite.com/maps/

Edited July 13, 2005 by Arpa

[MosJan]

MINSK GROUP WORKING OUT 'BASIS OF SETTLEMENT' OF THE CONFLICT

 

Co-Chairs Will Discuss 'Wording Alternatives'

 

Co-chairman of the OSCE Minsk group arrived in the region on Sunday. This is the first visit of the mediators since the parliamentary elections in Nagorno Artsax on June 19 that were estimated as democratic by international and local observers.

 

On July 11, Yuri Merzlyakov (Russia), Steven Mann (USA) and Bernard Fassie (France) met with the Azerbaijani foreign minister Elmar Mamediarov. The so-called head of Artsax's Azeri community, Nizami Bahmanov, brought up some details after the meeting. According to Armenpress, the talks focused on opening a transport route from Azerbaijan to Armenia through Artsax's territory as well as returning the refugees to their permanent domiciles.

 

Bahmanov said that "the key issue is returning Azeris to their settlements" and "the status of the region cannot be settled without returning them to Nagorno Artsax". "There is advance in the talks, and we are hopeful that the public will be informed on August 26 after the meeting of Azeri and Armenian president in Kazan", Bahmanov said.

 

Mediamax informs that the co-chairs and Mamediarov discussed "the present stage of Artsax settlement process and the situation created after the Warsaw meeting between Armenian and Azeri presidents and the Paris meeting of foreign ministers". After the meeting with President Aliyev, Minsk group co-chairs will set off for Yerevan to meet Armenian authorities. Settlement talks will continue further in Stepanakert, Nagorno Artsax.

 

Lately, authorities in Baku have been often speaking of exploiting common transport corridors. The former Russian co-chair to the Minsk group, Vladimir Kazimirov, told Vremya Novostey paper on this occasion that official Baku's offer is "directed to the electorate and the outer world".

 

"Azerbaijan is getting ready for parliamentary elections, and pre-election calculations influence Baku's talks strategy", Kazimirov said. He thinks that "Armenians, who are not squeezed by the election factor yet, have positive but reserved evaluation of the talks process".

 

Kazimirov noted that despite belligerent statements and harshness over key issues, Azerbaijan has also begun speaking of trust-inspiring arrangements, of which it did not want to hear formerly. The former co-chair pointed out to Baku's proposal to maintain common control over Aghdam-Nakhijevan road (via Nagorno Artsax, Lachin and Armenia).

 

"The issue of communication in the conflict zone is important, but that is no key for the settlement", Kazimirov said, adding "the status of Nagorno Artsax and liberation of regions Armenia occupied 11-12 years ago are still in the epicenter of discords".

 

A day before the visit, Yuri Merzlyakov stated that the mediators will continue working out the " basis of regulation" of the confrontation with the sides. "We are in high and working mood. I think that this visit will be beneficial for further talks process", Merzlyakov said.

 

The visit of Minsk group co -chairs to the South Caucasus will last till July 16. On August 26, Armenian president will meet his Azeri counterpart in Kazan on the sidelines of CIS non-official meeting. Before that, it is expected that Armenian and Azeri foreign ministers will have 1 or 2 meetings.

 

By Tatoul Hakobian

[MosJan]

SO at First we gave them the Aghdam -~-Khojalu back

then let them back to Artsax

let them use Armenia as Highway to naxijevan - gave them control over the road

and in 10-15 years will be a referendum on the status of Artsax

 

by then Artsax will be populated by 90% azeris – and guess what we will not get that referendum in our favor

[shaunt]

by then Artsax will be  populated  by 90% azeris – and  guess  what we will not get that  referendum in our favor

style_images/master/snapback.png

 

What was the Azeri population prior to the war? That will be the number that will be allowed to return. Just like the situation in Israel. There is no way in hell Israel will ever allow every displaced Israeli Arab to return to their homes. And if they insist on increasing their numbers, we'll start settling Armenians from Krasnodar in Artsakh.

 

Artsakhians are in control of Artsakh.

[skhara]

I don't know why any of the Azeris should be allowed back into Artsakh. Can't they occupy the former homes of Armenians in Azerbaijan?

[Dave]

If these Azeris really want to return to Artsakh, then they should let the Armenians occupy their former homes in Baku and other regions...

 

But which sane Armenian would want to go back to Azerbaijan and live among Turks?

 

 

Azeris composed 22.9% (37 300) of Karabagh's population before the war.

 

 

I don't know why any of the Azeris should be allowed back into Artsakh. Can't they occupy the former homes of Armenians in Azerbaijan?

 

There were supposedly more Azeri refugees than Armenian ones.

Edited July 14, 2005 by Dave

[skhara]

If these Azeris really want to return to Artsakh, then they should let the Armenians occupy their former homes in Baku and other regions...

 

But which sane Armenian would want to go back to Azerbaijan and live among Turks?

 

No sane one, thus the Azeri side can make a generally empty offer if they really wanted to. Besides all those homes are already occupied by the Azeris.

 

Azeris composed 22.9% (37 300) of Karabagh's population before the war.

There were supposedly more Azeri refugees than Armenian ones.

 

The biggest amount of Azeri refugees came from the districts around Artsax. If they are allowed to return to those dictricts, there would be twice as many displaced Armenians.

[Rodik]

No body can really give an honest opinion on this new option for peace on Artsakh. I can assure you that if you count the Azeri community in Artsagh when this referendum takes place 10 years from now, it would be disastrous for the Armenian side. The demographic situation will change in the ethnic Azeri favor.

 

This is absolutely unacceptable, although I'm confident Kocharyan is not so stupid to agree to it without certain conditions that would favor the Armenian side.

[Z'areh]

This whole affair is simply a test of endurance for us. To see how much world excrement will we endure. The world is simply going to do whatever it can to keep the so-called territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, and in this regard the Russians have proved to be the whores of politics by joining the international community in this game. At this point they do not care if Artsax is lost for the Armenians. So this referendum business...with a promise [a promise!!!!] of voting to stay in or out is just a scam.

 

Still, we do not know the details...we'll have to wait and see.