new promising era New Promising Era "President" & VP Nikol Pashinian

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Armenpress.am

Some issues in talks with Azerbaijan require presence of mediators, says Armenian Deputy FM

15:28, 23 November 2023

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 23, ARMENPRESS. Some issues in the talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan require the presence of mediators, Deputy Foreign Minister Mnatsakan Safaryan has said.

“We’ve numerously said that there are issues where the presence of mediators is mandatory. There are issues where the presence of mediators has a very important role,” he said when asked whether Armenia is in favor of holding talks with Azerbaijan without mediators.

Such issues include the rights of the forcibly displaced population of Nagorno-Karabakh, Safaryan said, adding that Armenia attaches importance to the presence of international mechanisms in this issue. There are other issues that require guarantees, he said.

“At this moment the issue of the rights of the forcibly displaced population is being raised by Armenia,” Safaryan said.

Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed to hold a meeting on border delimitation on November 30.

 

 

https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1124779.html?fbclid=IwAR3QN2oC1fxJIo3cceQqhMCeC5xvzKhVOwA-YglEE3sZ_jiULlc_LS8Gs2I

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Armenpress.am

Kremlin expects Pashinyan’s participation in upcoming CIS and EAEU summits

17:33, 23 November 2023

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 23, ARMENPRESS. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov has said that Moscow expects Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s participation in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) summits scheduled to take place in Saint Petersburg in December.

"I think they [Armenian delegation] will come to Saint Petersburg, where the traditional informal CIS summit will take place, and also the official EAEU meeting. By the way, at this meeting the chairmanship [of EAEU] will pass from us to Armenia, thus I believe that Pashinyan will arrive to accept the chairmanship from President Putin,” TASS quoted Ushakov as saying.

 

 

https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1124791.html?fbclid=IwAR3nuNaBvke5Jz1xnZX7LYczaeYk3c8PV7NVd4Y8e_ZGXJjYRen25TUL7J4

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Nov 24 2023

After Nagorno-Karabakh: How Europeans can strengthen Armenia’s resilience

The question of Nagorno-Karabakh is unlikely to be discussed any time soon after Azerbaijan took control of the region in September. Europeans should now diplomatically engage with all sides to prevent further escalation, while supporting Armenia’s domestic political stability and strengthening its defence capabilities

Marie Dumoulin @dumoulinME on X

Director, Wider Europe programme

Gustav Gressel @GresselGustav on X

Senior Policy Fellow

On 19 September, Azerbaijan retook the long disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia decided not to respond militarily, out of a lack of capabilities and an unwillingness to engage in another bloody war which they would eventually lose. After Azerbaijan’s months-long blockade, some 100,000 residents of the enclave fled to Armenia in just a few days. Many were housed by Armenians, largely avoiding an immediate refugee crisis. But other challenges may be looming for Armenia’s security if Azerbaijan decides to push further into its territory. To prevent such an escalation, the European Union should step up its diplomatic engagement while working more actively to strengthen Armenia’s societal resilience and defence capabilities.

For now, Armenians seem to blame Russia more than their government for what has happened. This is consistent with the rapid deterioration in Armenian-Russian relations since the 2020 war and the Moscow-brokered truce. The poor performance of the Russian ‘peacekeeping’ contingent stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh, along with Moscow’s reluctance to support its Armenian ally even after Azerbaijani incursions into its territory in 2021 and 2022, and finally the absence of any Russian reaction to the Azerbaijani offensive on 19 September, has left many Armenians doubting Russia’s security backing.

These security concerns are far from over. With Azerbaijan taking back full control of Nagorno-Karabakh, the 35-year conflict over the disputed territory has now de facto turned into an interstate conflict over the delimitation, or the establishing of the outer limits, of an international border. Increasing Azerbaijani rhetoric referring to southern Armenia as “western Azerbaijan” has fuelled Yerevan’s concerns about possible irredentist claims over the territory of Armenia itself. The issue of border delimitation has been touched upon in the ongoing peace negotiations between the two countries. But, Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev regularly sends signals of his unwillingness to agree on anything in a Western-led negotiating format and has instead advocated for a settlement involving “regional actors” ie, Russia and Turkey.

Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Russia, in such a scenario, could team up in a regional format that excludes the EU and United States, in order to arm-twist Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan into concessions, including the establishment of a land ‘corridor’ – branded as the Zangezur corridor – through Armenia’s southernmost Syunik region. Here, Pashinyan’s hand would be weak and Armenia’s domestic stability under constant threat, possibly opening avenues for internal destabilisation and making the country more vulnerable to external meddling. Even without this negotiation format Armenia faces such threats. Shortly after Azerbaijani forces retook Nagorno-Karabakh, Pashinyan accused Russia of making “public calls for a change of power in Armenia, to overthrow the democratic government”.

Azerbaijan's current military positions at Armenia’s border and the tremendous disbalance of power between the two countries has raised the Armenian government’s fears of a possible invasion

However, Azerbaijan's current military positions at Armenia’s border and the tremendous disbalance of power between the two countries has also raised the Armenian government’s fears of a possible invasion. Azerbaijan took three weeks to build up and prepare the attack in Nagorno-Karabakh, as it enjoyed military support from Turkey and Israel. It could take approximately the same time to attack the Syunik region and Azerbaijan would probably prefer to do so before winter kicks in.[1]

Both scenarios could carry dramatic consequences for Armenia, not least because its fragile democracy would be endangered by domestic discontent as well as Russian pressure. But it would also be very damaging for the EU, which has engaged resources and political capital in its mediation efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Its credibility would be significantly damaged if it were to let regional actors play with borders in its immediate neighbourhood, and would discredit its commitment to Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

Furthermore, the establishment of a land corridor through the Syunik region poses significant risks for Europe, whether established through militarily means and fully controlled by Azerbaijan, or through negotiations and formally controlled by Russian forces. This would entail Turkey and Azerbaijan, possibly with Russia’s support, gaining de facto control over a corridor connecting the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea, one of the key routes connecting Europe to Central Asia and China.

The EU should act to prevent such a scenario via addressing short, medium, and long-term concerns:

1. Preventing further escalation

• The first priority should be to deter an Azerbaijani attack on the territory of Armenia through high-level political engagement with the government in Yerevan. This would show that European leaders care for Armenia. But Europeans should also engage with Azerbaijan and Turkey. The consequences of a possible attack, including the prospect of restrictive measures, should be made clear to the Azerbaijani leadership.

• Extending the mandate of the EU mission to Armenia (EUMA) to better trace ceasefire violations and providing it with technical means to exert a more thorough monitoring of the border may also be instrumental in preventing further escalation. The decision taken at the EU Foreign Affairs Council on 13 November to strengthen the EUMA to allow for more observers and patrols is a step in this direction.

2. Strengthening defence capabilities

• Armenian membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) should not be an excuse to not help it build up its defence capacity. Rather, the EU should be open to using the European Peace Facility to equip the Armenian armed forces. Delivering equipment will also require EU engagement with Georgia to provide a transport corridor.

• And while most eyes are on military equipment, the EU is best suited to provide other kinds of assistance to strengthen Armenia’s defence capacity. Assistance to reform the administration (Ministry of Defence), logistics, military education, training, and operational and tactical planning and procedures need to be put in place to enable Armenia to make use of new equipment effectively.

• Recently India has emerged as a new provider of hard security assistance to Armenia and in this role is less suspect to Moscow and Tehran than the West. Strategic consultations with the government in Delhi on supporting Armenia militarily should also form part of the European effort.

• Reforming and re-equipping Armenia’s armed forces so they are able to withstand an Azerbaijani offensive will take several years, while to prepare an Azerbaijani offensive could take a few weeks. While Armenia remains highly vulnerable, Europe should exert diplomatic and economic pressure to keep the situation from escalating.

3. Supporting a peace settlement

• In parallel, the EU should step up mediation efforts, and use the fact that Nagorno-Karabakh is no longer part of the negotiation to reframe the discussion around the issue of borders. Mediation should aim for an agreement on the delimitation and opening of borders – including the border between Armenia and Turkey – in a way that provides security to all sides. This discussion will not be easy, but it could allow for technical solutions to problems that are currently framed in terms of sovereignty: primarily the question of a transit route through Armenian territory to connect Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan. As part of a future peace settlement the EU could offer technical support and possible investments to facilitate transit and connectivity in the wider region to incentivise the opening of borders.

• Last but not least, the EU should work towards increasing Armenia’s societal resilience. In the short term, humanitarian support will be needed for Nagorno-Karabakh refugees. Their integration into Armenian society will be key to ensuring future domestic political stability in the medium and long term. Beyond this, the EU can also contribute to institutions and capacity building in the country, to make it less vulnerable to both domestic instability and external pressures.

Ultimately, the EU also needs to manage Armenia’s expectations and should refrain from making unachievable promises. By doing so, it risks exposing Armenia to greater threats not just from Azerbaijan, but also from Russia, in which case it will end up bearing responsibility for a potential worsening situation, hurting its credibility in the region. The EU cannot make Iran, Russia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan go away – nor will it completely replace them. But it can support Armenia in balancing their interests without having to make exorbitant sacrifices, and it can help avoid Armenia’s imbalanced dependency on one regional power that would leave it at its mercy.

[1] Authors’ interviews with diplomats and Armenian officials held under the Chatham House rule, Yerevan, Armenia, 10-12 October 2023.

The European Council on Foreign Relations does not take collective positions. ECFR publications only represent the views of their individual authors.

https://ecfr.eu/article/after-nagorno-karabakh-how-europeans-can-strengthen-armenias-resilience/

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Nov 24 2023

 

Pashinyan answered the questions of Armenian residents for more than 8 hours. Main theses

• JAMnews

• Yerevan

The press conference of the Armenian Prime Minister lasted for more than eight hours with short breaks. This time it was held in a new format – without journalists. Nikol Pashinyan answered citizens’ video questions, which were very different in thematic terms – up to the treatment of specific people, payment of pensions and other social problems. There were also questions concerning the country’s security, the signing of a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, and Armenian-Russian relations.

 

• “Take aid to Armenia off the agenda” – Yerevan’s appeal to the CSTO

• “We are not satisfied with many things” – Armenian Foreign Minister on relations with Russia

• “Entrust Armenia’s security to an American private company” – political scientist

 

 

“There is political will to make a decision” – on withdrawal from the CSTO

Has Armenia decided to withdraw from the CSTO military bloc operating under the auspices of Russia? There is no definite and final answer to this question yet. At least, the prime minister, who has repeatedly spoken about the allies’ failure to fulfill their obligations, is still waiting for clarification:

“We want to do everything possible to fully understand the CSTO and make our position clear to the military alliance.”

At the same time, Pashinyan is aware: if all the potential for clarifying relations is considered exhausted, the Armenian society has the right to ask why the government does not leave the organization. As he put it, “a structure that gives nothing to the Republic of Armenia and, on the contrary, creates additional problems for the security system.”

The Prime Minister emphasized that the government has the political will to make decisions that meet the interests of the country:

“If there was no such will, there would be no critical statements from Yerevan regarding the activities of the bloc. The de facto actions or inactions of the CSTO do not correspond to the obligations of the organization towards Armenia and do not correspond to Armenia’s interests.

Moreover, membership in the CSTO is an insurmountable obstacle to support and cooperation with other partners. We have to make decisions that meet our interests. If at the moment we have made a decision or have not made a decision, our reference point is the state interest of Armenia”.

 

Armenia still has not received weapons from Russia. How will the issue be resolved?

An Armenian resident asked how the government intends to solve the issue of undelivered weapons from Russia, for which the country paid millions of dollars. Pashinyan replied that the discussion of mechanisms for solving this problem is still ongoing:

“For example, one of the options could be to deduct the amount paid from the Republic of Armenia’s debt to Russia. And this is not the only option. The Russian Federation itself needs arms. The Armenian side is determined to solve the issue in a businesslike manner and hopes that the negotiations will bring concrete results”.

 

Will the broadcasting of Russian TV channels continue in Armenia?

A question was raised whether the government plans to deprive Russian TV channels of airtime in connection with the recent scandalous incidents and the airing of programs containing anti-Armenian propaganda.

Pashinyan replied that the airing of Russian TV channels in Armenia is agreed upon by interstate agreement. And in recent months, Armenian state structures have been recording violations of the clauses of this agreement.

“There is a clear regulation that [in the content of TV channels] there cannot be interference in the internal affairs of the country, attempts to destabilize the internal political situation,” he stressed.

However, given its friendly relations with Russia, the Ministry of High-Tech Industry has officially invited Russian colleagues for consultations “to find solutions.”

“I hope that these consultations will take place as soon as possible so that we can resolve this issue in a normal, working, friendly atmosphere.”

 

Is there a risk of destabilization on Armenia’s southern border?

The Prime Minister was asked this question from the town of Meghri in Syunik region – in the south of Armenia. Pashinyan replied that the government does not single out Syunik as a vulnerable zone in terms of security.

“There are also security problems in Tavush, Gegharkunik, Ararat, Vayots Dzor. These problems are obvious, they should be neither underestimated nor overestimated.”

According to the PM, Syunik is one of the most economically active regions of the country. Over the past 5 years, the government has invested more than 100 billion drams [$250 million] in the region and is implementing numerous projects, including with the financial support of the European Union.

“All this is done in order to give a clear political signal: all our plans related to Syunik are related to strategic development, welfare and economic activity.”

He emphasized that Meghri city itself is included in the concept of developing Armenia’s transportation system, unblocking regional communications under the government’s “Crossroads of the World” project.

 

“Return to Nagorno-Karabakh is unrealistic at the moment”

The reason, according to the Prime Minister, is that “Azerbaijan’s policy of ethnic cleansing has not changed.”

“In conditions when IDPs have no opportunity to return to the places where they were born and lived, the government’s policy is the following: to do everything so that they stay in Armenia and do not leave,” he said.

Pashinyan said that immediately after their arrival in Armenia, the impression was that many would leave. There was a large flow of Karabakh Armenians who left for other countries. However, according to the Prime Minister, statistics shows that then they returned. Assumes that perhaps they traveled to their relatives.

 

“There is no such thing as absolute security.”

“In order to solve the security problem, the Armenian government is pursuing a peace agenda. We have also ensured rather strong international consolidation on the issues of defense of territorial integrity, sovereignty, independence and democracy of the Republic of Armenia,” the Prime Minister said.

He believes that there is no absolute security in the current situation in the world. And it is necessary to form reliable security mechanisms in these new conditions. He is convinced that only “de jure enshrined and binding peace” can provide 100 percent security, which he seeks.

 

Is Baku ready to come to peace?

According to the Prime Minister, it is not clear at the moment whether Azerbaijan is ready to sign a peace agreement with Armenia based on the three principles agreed upon during the talks in the Brussels format:

“We cannot say with certainty that Azerbaijan refuses to sign an agreement based on these principles, but neither can we say that Baku reaffirms its commitment to these three principles.”

Earlier, Pashinyan said the following three principles were agreed upon with Azerbaijan during trilateral meetings held in Brussels on May 14 and July 15, 2023:

• “Armenia and Azerbaijan recognize each other’s territorial integrity with the understanding that Armenia’s territory is 29,800 square kilometers and Azerbaijan’s territory is 86,600 square kilometers.

• The 1991 Alma-Ata Declaration is the political basis for the delimitation of the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. In fact, there is also an understanding that the delimitation should utilize the 1974-1990 maps of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Soviet Union. It is also agreed that Armenia and Azerbaijan have no territorial claims against each other and undertake not to make such claims in the future.
• Regional communications should be unblocked on the basis of sovereignty, jurisdiction, reciprocity and equality of countries”.

During the upcoming talks, the Prime Minister intends to clarify these issues and make conclusions:

“Although there was a statement from Baku that Azerbaijan recognizes the territorial integrity of the Republic of Armenia, we need specifics on what they mean by that.”

 

On the return of Armenian prisoners of war from Azerbaijan

More than 100 captives have returned home, the prime minister recalled. But he is dissatisfied with the fact that it was not possible to achieve positive results on the remaining captive compatriots.

“Baku is using the humanitarian issue for political purposes, which is illogical. We express our willingness to be flexible and work with Azerbaijan so that the captives return. We are even ready to exchange Azerbaijanis convicted [for crimes committed on Armenian territory, including murder], on the principle of all for all. We continue our work,” he said.

He reminded that in parallel with the negotiations, Armenia is appealing to the ECHR and other instances on the issue of prisoners.

Pashinyan did not answer the question about what Armenia is doing to free the leaders of the unrecognized NKR who are in Azerbaijani captivity.

https://jam-news.net/pashinyans-answers-to-the-questions-of-armenian-citizens/

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Armenpress.am

Huge reforms are taking place in Armenian military, says Pashinyan

14:02, 24 November 2023

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 24, ARMENPRESS. Huge reforms are underway in the Armenian military, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has said.

The prime minister was asked at an online press conference by a citizen why Armenia wasn’t using the Swiss military model, or that of any other developed country, in its armed forces.

“Huge reforms are taking place in the Armenian Armed Forces,” Pashinyan replied. “The reforms are taking place by studying international experience, among others.”

He mentioned the certification procedure for servicemembers, which enables them to raise the salary of those passing the tests.

Pashinyan also mentioned the 24-day training program for military reservists, which in some sense is aimed at advancing towards the model of the Switzerland military.

“…We want the society to be sure that if the state has entrusted someone the country’s security, then those servicemembers are capable of bearing that responsibility.”

 

 

https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1124849.html?fbclid=IwAR0HSzP729hpAzhYavg1c-hKKTXkKcC_5UaJheZCN_EovnlKC_fCCuxfDSc

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Armenpress.am

As before, so now we consider Russia our friendly country– Pashinyan

17:45, 24 November 2023

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 24, ARMENPRESS. Armenia has considered and continues to consider the Russian Federation a friendly country, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has said in response to a question from the public.

“As before, so now we consider Russia our friendly country. And in relations with friendly countries there are issues that need to be addressed. And we are guided by this logic. We hope and will do everything possible so that our relations with the Russian Federation are built on mutual respect, and respect for the interests, independence, and sovereignty of the parties," added Pashinyan.

 

 

https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1124884.html?fbclid=IwAR0myX3f7UD3ik9QR6nntF9XJQuy8b3c1JobyDYqHOGLPWIsw93lgwhd8Dk

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Armenpress.am

The concept of “Western Azerbaijan” is a concept to justify a new war against Armenia, says Pashinyan

18:37, 24 November 2023

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 24, ARMENPRESS. The "Western Azerbaijan" narrative, according to Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, raises doubts about Azerbaijan's sincerity regarding the peace process.

“The “Western Azerbaijan” narrative calls into question Azerbaijan's sincerity regarding the peace process.

One of the key provisions of the peace process should be that Armenia and Azerbaijan have no territorial claims against each other and are ready to undertake a de jure binding obligation not to advance such demands in the future,’’ Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said at a televised press conference on Friday.

“What is "Western Azerbaijan"? The concept of "Western Azerbaijan" is a concept of formation, construction and justification of a new war against Armenia", noted the Prime Minister.

 

 

https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1124887.html?fbclid=IwAR0ImlHY_0ZJsiEsYx4IauBQp9G-jp4VNRt_UizxdSpZ1caEht0lpELxRYw

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Nov 25 2023

Armenia, Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic ties

Tbilisi, Nov 25 (EFE).- Armenia and Saudi Arabia have established diplomatic relations, the foreign ministry the country in the Caucasus said on Saturday.

A foreign ministry statement said the signing of the corresponding protocol took place on Friday in Abu Dhabi by the ambassadors of the two countries to the United Arab Emirates.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said on Friday that Armenia and Saudi Arabia were in touch with each other for the past few years.

“Our foreign ministers have met twice, phone calls have taken place, contacts have taken place during various multilateral working discussions,” Pashinyan told reporters before the government formally announced diplomatic ties with the kingdom.

“I think the process is advancing, and I hope that Armenia and Saudi Arabia will soon establish diplomatic relations, which would be a very important and significant event,” he said.

After several disagreements with Russia, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced his intention to diversify the country’s foreign relations.

Saudi Arabia supported Christian Armenia in its conflict with Muslim Azerbaijan in the war for control of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020, causing great discomfort in Azerbaijan’s main ally, Turkey.

Armenia, which gained independence in 1991 after the Soviet dissolution, maintains good relations with Iran, which opposed from the beginning the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

According to some experts, it was one of the triggers for the current war between Israel and the Islamist group Hamas, which is backed by Tehran. EFE

mv-mos/ssk

https://www.laprensalatina.com/armenia-saudi-arabia-establish-diplomatic-ties/

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Nov 28 2023

As Russia Relations Sour, Armenians Prepare to Defend Themselves

In southern Armenia’s Syunik province, the prospect of war looms large.

By Tom J. Bennett

SYUNIK PROVINCE, Armenia — “When I go to bed at night, I don’t think: ‘Is my phone on charge or have I brushed my teeth?’ I think: Do I know where my parents are and is my bag packed to evacuate?”

These are the nightly thoughts of Mariam, a 22-year-old teacher living in southern Armenia’s Syunik province, 10 kilometers from the border with Azerbaijan. She’s standing in the Soviet-era sports hall of Goris State University and has just finished a class on emergency first aid. Next up: Kalashnikov shooting techniques.

Mariam is undertaking a three-month program run by VOMA, a paramilitary group that has variously been described as a survival school and a civil defense organization — or, if you’re a member of the Azerbaijani government, a terrorist group.

No matter how it is characterized, VOMA’s stated aim is a serious one: to prepare Armenian civilians to defend their country.

The attendees here seemingly hail from every corner of the community, from young mothers to university students. Along with first aid and weapons training, they’ll also take lessons in mountaineering, a crucial skill in the rugged alpine terrain that flanks the 900-kilometer border with Azerbaijan.

Of the 22 VOMA branches spread across Armenia, “the location of this branch is significant because of the vulnerability of this border area,” says Vartan, its 42-year-old head instructor.

VOMA has seen a significant uptick in attendees since Azerbaijan launched its lightning military offensive on the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh in September, taking it under in 24 hours and sending its 100,000-strong ethnic Armenian population fleeing into Armenia proper.

Most, crammed into cars or the back of open-top trucks, passed through this very town, which over the past fortnight morphed into an international crisis center. The Red Cross, The World Food Program and a host of national aid missions, including USAID head Samantha Power, poured in to show support. Tents went up, food packages were delivered, and the international media showed up in droves.

But for many of the residents of this region who feel abandoned by the international community, this display was too little, too late.

“Of course I’m let down,” Vartan said. “I was waiting for something that didn’t happen. But we just have to have hope.”

NEWS

Kremlin Says ‘Regrets’ Armenia Snubbing Defense Summit
READ MORE

According to many here, the bulk of the blame lies squarely at the feet of Armenia’s historic ally Russia, who, despite promises to mediate the conflict and the presence of 2,000 Russian peacekeepers in the region, did little to intervene.

Russia’s inaction marks a historic shift in its regional policy. In the past, Armenia has been able to rely on Russia to moderate disputes, supply arms and play politics. Though this hasn’t always been in Armenia’s favor, they’ve generally done enough to support Yerevan.

To this day, Russian border guards patrol Armenia’s borders with Turkey and Iran. In Armenia’s second city of Gyumri, a vast Russian military base houses an estimated 3,000 soldiers. The vast majority of Armenia’s gas supply comes from Russia.

These entanglements make any future split from Russia all the more difficult for Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

A VOMA first aid training. Participants' faces have been concealed due to concerns about being identified by the Azerbaijani authorities.Tom J. Bennett

Experts say the reasons for Russia’s cold shoulder are complex: the Ukraine war has left Russia internationally isolated, meaning that southern partners that provide a link to global markets — such as Turkey, Azerbaijan and Iran — have become much more valuable.

But it’s also likely that Armenia’s recent overtures to the West have angered the Kremlin. At the start of September, Yerevan carried out joint training drills with the U.S. military and sent an aid package to Ukraine personally delivered by Pashinyan’s wife Anna Hakobian.

Armenia’s parliament strained relations further when, in a rebuke to Moscow, it voted to join the International Criminal Court — meaning that if President Vladimir Putin were to step foot on Armenian soil, Yerevan would be obliged to arrest him.

Last week, Armenia was the only member of the Moscow-led CSTO alliance to skip a meeting of alliance leaders in Minsk, and Pashinyan said that Russia had failed to deliver weapons Yerevan had already paid for and accused Russia's media of destabilizing his country's political situation.

“Armenia cannot count at all on Russia in terms of its own security, so this ICC vote is a message to the West from the Armenian government that they are really willing to go further in distancing themselves from Russia,” Stefan Meister, head of the Center for Order and Governance in Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia at the German Council on Foreign Relations, told The Moscow Times.

“But I think it's a very dangerous bet they are doing because I don't see that the West will really support Armenia in a way that it needs. For the West, it’s a question of how you show support. Do you send soldiers? Peacekeepers? Do you build up leverage on Azerbaijan with sanctions?”

Rifles storedTom J. Bennett

According to Meister, that latter option appears unlikely. As a result of Western sanctions on Russia, many EU countries have turned to Azerbaijan as an alternate gas supplier. It’s unlikely that any country would want to sanction a key energy provider, leaving Armenia in a difficult negotiating position.

As geopolitical moves are played out in capitals across Eurasia, the lack of a firm international response to the Nagorno-Karabakh situation has raised fears that Azerbaijan could attempt to create a land corridor to its exclave of Nakhichevan by capturing parts of southern Armenia.

“What’s worrying from the Armenian standpoint is this convergence of interests between Azerbaijan, Russia, and Turkey to open this corridor. And in the region, the only power kind of opposing it is Iran,” Karena Avedissian, a senior analyst at the Regional Center for Democracy and Security, told The Moscow Times.

For the VOMA trainees in Syunik province, the specter of war casts a long shadow.

“I think we will see a growing instability of Armenia, which has lost orientation and has no one who supports it really in a serious way,” says Meister.

The names of VOMA members have been changed to protect their identities.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/11/28/as-russia-relations-sour-armenians-prepare-to-defend-themselves-a82716

[MosJan]

[MosJan]

Azerbaijan to release 32 Armenian servicemen

 

 

 

 

https://en.armradio.am/2023/12/07/azerbaijan-to-releases-32-armenian-military-servicemen/

 

 

The Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan share the view that there is a historical chance to achieve a long-awaited peace in the region, the Office of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia and the Presidential Administration of the Republic of Azerbaijan said in a joint statement.

The two countries reconfirm their intention to normalize relations and to reach the peace treaty on the basis of respect for the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Following the talks between the Office of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia and the Presidential Administration of the Republic of Azerbaijan, an agreement has been reached on taking tangible steps towards building confidence between two countries.

Driven by the values of humanism and as a gesture of goodwill, the Republic of Azerbaijan releases 32 Armenian military servicemen.

In its turn, driven by the values of humanism and as a gesture of goodwill, the Republic of Armenia releases 2 Azerbaijani military servicemen.

As a sign of good gesture, the Republic of Armenia supports the bid of the Republic of Azerbaijan to host the 29th Session of the Conference of Parties (COP29) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, by withdrawing its own candidacy. The Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan do hope that the other countries within the Eastern European Group will also support Azerbaijan’s bid to host. As a sign of good gesture, the Republic of Azerbaijan supports the Armenian candidature for Eastern European Group COP Bureau membership.

The Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan will continue their discussions regarding the implementation of more confidence building measures, effective in the near future and call on the international community to support their efforts that will contribute to building mutual trust between two countries and will positively impact the entire South Caucasus region.

[Yervant1]

Armenpress.am

Border delimitation process with Azerbaijan will be complex and lengthy, says Deputy Prime Minister

19:38, 6 December 2023

YEREVAN, DECEMBER 6, ARMENPRESS. Border delimitation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan will be complex and lengthy, Deputy Prime Minister of Armenia, Mher Grigoryan said during the question-and-answer session with members of the government in the National Assembly.

“The delimitation process will be quite complex and prolonged; this is obvious. There seems to be a mutual understanding that the delimitation process will be carried out solely on the basis of documents having legal significance. Additionally, we will work with maps that are not pictures or map-like diagrams, but actual topographic maps. For example, the 1975 map, which should be carefully studied. There will not be a single meeting after which we will come and declare that the delimitation process is completed. This is simply impossible,” said the Deputy Prime Minister.

Grigoryan emphasized the importance of the fact that the parties share a common understanding of the process, its significance and the approach to work.

Addressing the outcomes of the latest working meeting between the commissions of Armenia and Azerbaijan on delimitation issues, the Deputy Prime Minister mentioned that they had agreed to establish a working protocol that would outline the institutional process of the work.

The Deputy Prime Minister didn’t provide substantive details from the latest meeting, as it wasn't discussed, including matters related to enclaves and exclaves.

 

 

https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1125692.html?fbclid=IwAR0g7lDNq0Lp5m2GH8MSk6Tkkk6b6tUUmbRep39v-sfR329SgfPeC_iu3D4

[Yervant1]

TASS - Russia

Dec 6 2023

Baku, Yerevan agree to swap captured servicemen

According to the report, there are no leaders of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh "and other war criminals" among the 32 military personnel that Baku will hand over to Yerevan

BAKU, December 7. /TASS/. Azerbaijan and Armenia have agreed to exchange servicemen that were ever detained in the past by both sides.

"As a result of talks between the administration of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Office of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, an agreement was reached to take tangible steps to build confidence between the two countries. Guided by the principles of humanism and as a goodwill gesture, the Republic of Azerbaijan releases 32 Armenian servicemen. In turn, the Republic of Armenia, guided by the principles of humanism and as a goodwill gesture, releases 2 Azerbaijani servicemen," said a joint statement of the Azerbaijani Presidential Administration and the Armenian Prime Minister's Office, according to the Azertag news agency.

According to the report, there are no leaders of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh "and other war criminals" among the 32 military personnel that Baku will hand over to Yerevan.

"Of the persons handed over to the Armenian side, 26 are persons detained in the Hadrut Region in December 2020, and the other 6 were detained at the border at different times," the news agency said.

https://tass.com/world/1717741

[Yervant1]

eureporter

Dec 8 2023

Joint statement of the Presidential Administration of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Office of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia

Baku, December 7, AZERTAC

The Presidential Administration of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Office of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia have released a joint statement.

AZERTAC presents the statement: “The Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan share the view that there is a historical chance to achieve a long-awaited peace in the region. Two countries reconfirm their intention to normalize relations and to reach a peace treaty based on respect for the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Following the talks between the Presidential Administration of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Office of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, an agreement has been reached on taking tangible steps towards building confidence between two countries.

Driven by the values of humanism and as a gesture of goodwill, the Republic of Azerbaijan releases 32 Armenian military servicemen.

In its turn, driven by the values of humanism and as a gesture of goodwill, the Republic of Armenia releases 2 Azerbaijani military servicemen.

As a sign of good gesture, the Republic of Armenia supports the bid of the Republic of Azerbaijan to host the 29th Session of the Conference of Parties (COP29) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, by withdrawing its own candidacy. The Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan do hope that the other countries within the Eastern European Group will also support Azerbaijan’s bid to host. As a sign of good gesture, the Republic of Azerbaijan supports the Armenian candidature for Eastern European Group COP Bureau membership.

The Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan will continue their discussions regarding the implementation of more confidence building measures, effective in the near future and call on the international community to support their efforts that will contribute to building mutual trust between two countries and will positively impact the entire South Caucasus region.”

https://www.eureporter.co/world/karabakh/2023/12/08/joint-statement-of-the-presidential-administration-of-the-republic-of-azerbaijan-and-the-office-of-the-prime-minister-of-the-republic-of-armenia/#google_vignette

[Yervant1]

Duvar, Turkey

Dec 8 2023

Armenia can become Switzerland of region, business association deputy head says

The Turkish–Armenian Business Development Council (TABDC) Deputy Chair Noyan Soyak told Gazete Duvar in an interview that Armenia had a potential to become Switzerland of the region due to its geographical location.

Vercihan Ziflioğlu / Gazete Duvar

One of the figures that try to improve the relations between Turkey and Armenia is the Turkish–Armenian Business Development Council (TABDC) Deputy Chair Noyan Soyak.

In an interview, Soyak told Gazete Duvar that Armenia has the potential to become the “Switzerland of the region” if it seizes the opportunities, and said, “30 years were wasted with wrong policies. I hope they will make better use of their geographical advantages from now on.”

The general understanding in Turkey is that the period of Armenia's first President Levon Ter-Petrosyan was a missed opportunity for the relations between two countries. In the current period, all eyes are on the policies that will be implemented by the country's young Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who came to power with the “Velvet Revolution” in 2018. Ankara follows the developments closely.

The 'football diplomacy', for which great hope was placed in 2008, could not achieve any results. The bilateral relations between Turkey and Armenia have not been improving.

On the other hand, contacts have been made in social, cultural and economic contexts. Non-governmental organizations and businesspeople continue their contacts without slowing down.

Below are the questions asked by Gazete Duvar and Soyak’s answers:

What do you think is the course of Turkey-Armenia relations? Have you ever felt like you were trying to navigate a difficult path?

Turkish-Armenian relations are an interactive relationship. Standard solutions do not work. Various obstacles may arise along the path. For example, just when you say everything is going well, a country brings the genocide bill to its agenda. Or suddenly a heated statement regarding Turkey comes to the fore in the Armenian public. As a result, the process is disrupted.

Is it possible to briefly explain how you got involved in this process?

I can say that we got involved by chance. As a company, we were doing maritime transportation. I lived in Moscow for about four years. Then I settled in the USA. We continued our business there as a company. Again, we won tenders to transport humanitarian aid to Central Asia and the Caucasus by sea. We were also carrying aid to Armenia.

One of our partners was an Armenia national. I was invited to Armenia during the term of President Levon Ter-Petrosyan. At first I seriously hesitated whether to go or not. Armenia was a closed box for me. Our partner Arsen Ghazaryan convinced me. I went for the first time in 1996.

In fact, the idea of establishing relations with Turkey belonged to Levon Ter-Petrosyan's brother, the late Telman Ter-Petrosyan. He very much wanted bilateral relations to improve. At that time, the President of Turkey was Süleyman Demirel, and (Telman) said that they also met with him. Then we started thinking about what we could do with my partner Ghazaryan.

How did Demirel approach the process in those years? What path did you follow?

We met with Demirel and he gave us the green light. Likewise, discussions were held with the Turkish Armed Forces. We saw that there was no obstacle and we started. First of all, the issue of establishing a common platform between the two countries came to the agenda. The platform in question was the Black Sea Economic Cooperation. We had difficulty finding a name for ourselves within the union. It had to be a soft and innocent title. That's why we chose the business development concept.

In the first stage, we brought together Turkish and Armenian businesspeople who do business through Georgian merchants. Then they started doing business without intermediaries. Cultural activities followed. On the 1700th anniversary of Armenians accepting Christianity as the official religion, we took a quartet from the Turkish Presidential Symphony Orchestra to Yerevan, where they played Khachaturian.

The general judgment in Turkey is that an opportunity was missed during the Levon Ter-Petrosyan period to re-establish bilateral relations. Do you agree with this? Is it really possible to establish such sensitive relations between two countries through cultural activities? Does public diplomacy really produce results when we look at all these contexts?

Of course. The Levon Ter-Petrosyan era was a missed opportunity. If progress had been made at that time, the process would have been different from today. But Petrosyan had to resign from his post. Therefore, the process froze. Of course, things won't work with cultural activities. These are only for infrastructure, that is, 'public diplomacy.'

What would you like to say when you look back? Since we cannot change the location of countries geographically, what should we do?

Today, Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan is trying to implement what I tried to say 20 years ago. He announced a 'peace initiative' project.

You are right, we can neither take Armenia geographically and move it to another point, nor Turkey. We will live together as two neighboring countries, so we need to establish bilateral relations and also ensure economic integration.

While energy lines and transportation routes can be connected to Turkey via Armenia with an extremely easy route, it is drawn a curve through third countries. What would you like to say about this?

The lines coming out of Caspian draw a huge curve and increase the cost. It bypasses Armenia and connects via Georgia. So why do we have to draw an upward curve instead of passing a straight line through Armenia and extending it to the west?

Armenia has the potential to become the Switzerland of the region if it seizes the opportunities. 30 years were wasted with wrong policies. I hope they will make better use of their geographical advantages from now on.

As a businessperson who knows Armenia closely, where do you think mistakes were made?

Thousands of people died on both sides in the Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia in 2020. Since Armenia is a Christian country, it called for help from the West. This is a deeply flawed argument. Why would the West send aid just because it is a Christian country? What will they benefit from this? They need to think. If the gas pipes burning in the furnace of a man in France or Germany pass through Armenia, or if the internet of a man in Kazakhstan is connected through Armenia, then of course there will be concern on the other side.

How do you evaluate the Armenia policies during the AKP government in Turkey? After all, we are talking about a 21-year period.

We have been in this process for 26 years. The AKP has been in power for 21 years. Therefore, it is possible to say that a relaxed and conciliatory policy was followed until 2013. But at this point, the problems are still not solved.

Do you have contacts with Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan during this process?

We are on hold for now, we have no contact. In principle, we follow and support his statements.

When we look at it from a professional perspective, there is a concern for Turkey in the Armenian market. It is thought that if the borders are opened, the economy will be taken over. What do you think about this? Is there really such a 'danger'?

I strongly disagree. I often encounter similar questions during my contacts in Armenia. I would like to give an example. During the years when Turkey joined the Customs Union, we were worried about European goods dominating the market. Maybe production slowed down at first, but Turkish businesspeople developed different models. For example, the export item changed from textile to automotive. The same things will probably happen in Armenia. If they start production and develop different policies, they will see that their fears are unfounded.

What do you think will happen when the borders open?

If you leave Iğdır when everything is fine, you can reach Yerevan in an hour. You start doing business together. The closest shoe factory to Kars is in Gaziantep, and once the borders open, it will be Gyumri. On the Armenian side, wheat grows in a small area. It has to be bought from Russia. Therefore, it can buy wheat from Turkey.

(English version by Alperen Şen)

https://www.duvarenglish.com/armenia-can-become-switzerland-of-region-business-association-deputy-head-says-news-63461

[Yervant1]

168.am

100 տարի առաջ էլ Արևմուտքը մեզ սադրեց ու թողեց Թուրքիայի ու Ռուսաստանի արանքում. Արթուր Խաչիկյան

Դեկտեմբեր 10, 2023

 

«Պրեսսինգ» հաղորդաշարի եթերում Սաթիկ Սեյրանյանի հյուրն ԱՄՆ Սթենֆորդի համալսարանի քաղաքագիտության դոկտոր Արթուր Խաչիկյանն է։

Հարցազրույցի հիմնական թեզերը՝ ստորև.

• Հանցագործներն ու ռազմագերիները համարժեք բան չեն։ Լավ է, որ գերիները վերադարձել են, բայց ինչո՞ւ այդ հարցն ավելի վաղ չէր բարձրացվել ու լուծվել։ Դեռ այդքան գերիներ էլ ունենք Բաքվում, այդ թվում՝ ռազմաքաղաքական ղեկավարությունն Արցախի: Ինչո՞ւ չի դրվում Արցախի ռազմաքաղաքական ղեկավարությանն ազատ արձակելու մասին հարցը։ Ստացվում է՝ Արցախն էր խանգարում։ Բոլոր նրանց համար, ովքեր մտածում էին՝ Արցախը հանձնեն, հանգիստ կապրեն, վատ նորություն ունեմ․ Ալիևը Փաշինյանի հայտարարած Հայաստանի 29. 800 կմ տարածքի 15.000-ը համարում է իրենը։ Ալիևը նաև հայտարարել է, որ ռևանշ չի թույլ տալու։ Սա նշանակում է, որ մենք բանակ չպետք է ունենանք։ Սա Ալեքսանդրապոլի նույն պայմանագիրն է։

• Երբ Ռուսաստանն էր այս տարիների ընթացքում Բաքվից տասնյակ գերիներ բերում, իշխանությունները լռում էին, բայց երբ Արևմուտքն է բերում, դրա մասին բարձրաձայնում են բոլորը։

• Հայաստանյան այս գործակալների խումբն այլևս չի խոսում Արցախի մասին։ Արևմուտքը խոստացել էր, որ Արցախում էթնիկ զտում թույլ չեն տալու։ Բա ինչպե՞ս եղավ, որ 120.000 մարդ տեղահանվեց։ Հիմա եթե նույն բանը Հայաստանի հետ լինի, էլի Արևմուտքը հայտարարություններից այն կողմ չի անցնելու։

• Երբ Փաշինյանին Եվրոպայում ծափահարում են Արցախը հանձնելու համար, իսկ այստեղի գավառական քարոզիչները գովերգում են նրան, պարզ է, որ Ալիևն ինչ ուզի, պիտի հայտարարի ու անի։ Հայաստանում 2018-ից իշխանության եղած խումբը Թուրքիայի դեսպանատան ներկայացուցիչներն են Հայաստանում։

• Ալիևը պահանջելու է 15.000 քկմ տարածք, անկլավները, դեպի այդ անկլավները տանող ճանապարհները, Սյունիքը, ադրբեջանական ուժերի տեղակայում Հայաստանում, գույքի վերադարձ, փոխհատուցում… Պահանջելու է փոխել Հայաստանի Սահմանադրությունը, Անկախության հռչակագիրը, զինանշանից հանելու են Արարատը… Այս իշխանություններն Ալիևի ու Թուրքիայի պահանջով դեռ շատ անելիքներ ունեն՝ հրաժարվելու են Արարատից, Անդրանիկից, Գևորգ Չաուշից, Սասունցի Դավթից, Կոմիտասից… Ցուցակը շատ երկար է։ Խաղաղության պայմանագրում Ադրբեջանն այնպիսի կետեր կդնի, որ հետագայում Հայաստան չլինի։

• Ալիևի քայլերը հասկանալի են ու ռացիոնալ՝ իր երկրի շահերն առաջ մղելու առումով․ դրա մասին 3-4 տարի խոսում ենք, զգուշացնում ենք մարդկանց։ Այս իրավիճակում մի բան է անհասկանալի՝ ինչպե՞ս ենք մենք, մեր ժողովուրդը հանդուրժում սրանց Հայաստանի իշխանության գլխին։

• Սրանց մի մասը գործակալներ են, որոնք փող են ստանում դրսից, մյուս մասն աղանդավորներ են։ Մենք դարձել ենք սեկտանտների՝ աղանդավորների ազգ։ Հայաստանում գործող հակառուսական ուժերին հսկայական փող են տալիս, որ Ռուսաստանին հանեն այստեղից, ու տարածաշրջան, Հայաստան մտնի Թուրքիան։

• Իրանն էր, որ զսպեց Թուրքիայի և Ադրբեջանի հարձակումները Սյունիքի վրա։ Բայց ԱՄՆ-ը թույլ չի տալիս, որ ՀՀ իշխանությունները զարգացնեն հարաբերություններն Իրանի հետ։

• Այս իշխանության նպատակը մեզ Թուրքիային ու Ադրբեջանին հպատակեցնելն է, և ամենացավալին այն է, որ մեր հասարակության մի մասը դրա հետ կարծես խնդիր չունի։

• Թուրքիան ունի միայն մեկ նպատակ՝ միանալ Ադրբեջանի հետ, ոչնչացնել հայերին։ Այդպես է արդեն 100 տարի։

• Ֆրանսիական բաստիոնները, ըստ միջազգային աղբուրների, օգտագործվում են աֆրիկյան երկրներում հետախուզական խաղաղապահ առաքելությունների համար։ Դրանք պաշտպանողական ֆունկցիա չունեն։ Դրանց պատուհաններն ապակուց են։ Ցանկացած գնդակ կարող է մտնել։ Էլ չեմ ասում անօդաչուների մասին, որ միանգամից կարող են դրանք ոչնչացնել։ Ֆրանսիան Ուկրաինային տալիս է Լեոպարդ-2, իսկ մեզ՝ աֆրիկյան БТР-ներ։ Ֆրանսիան իր վրա վերցրել է խորհրդանշական աջակցության դեր, որպեսզի հանգստացնի ֆրանսահայ համայնքին։ Եվ այդ մասին ֆրանսիական Le Monde թերթն է գրել։ Ֆրանսիան Հայաստանի վրա հնարավոր ագրեսիայի դեպքում ոչինչ չի անելու։

• Հայաստանում էքստազային ինդուստրիա է։ Հիմա էլ էքստազի մեջ են ընկել ԱՄՆ պետքարտուղարի օգնական Ջեյմս Օ’Բրայենի հայտարարություններից։ Իրականում Օ’Բրայենն ասում է՝ Իրանի և Ռուսաստանի ազդեցություն Կովկասում չպե՛տք է լինի։

• Օ’Բրայենին լսում էի, ասում է՝ արցախցիներն այնպիսի շոկի մեջ են, որ իրենք էլ չգիտեն՝ ինչի են դուրս եկել Արցախից… Պատկերացնո՞ւմ եք՝ ինչ է ասում: Նույն Օ’Բրայենը երևի չի լսել, որ սեպտեմբերին մի օրում ադրբեջանցիները 1000 մարդ են սպանել։

• Երբ մի ժողովուրդ չի ուզում ուսումնասիրել իր պատմությունն ու սխալները, նրա հետ լինելու է այն, ինչ եղավ հարյուր տարի առաջ, երբ Հայաստանը Թուրքիան ու Ռուսաստանը կիսեցին իրար մեջ։ Նույն ձևով, ինչպես 100 տարի առաջ Արևմուտքը մեզ սադրեց ու թողեց Թուրքիայի ու Ռուսաստանի արանքում, վարվում են և հիմա։ Այդպես են նրանք վարվել նաև Ուկրաինայի և Վրաստանի հետ։ Եվ այդ ամենը՝ Ռուսաստանը թուլացնելու համար։

Կարդացեք նաև

• Հայկական ժողովրդավարության ալիևյան մետամորֆոզները
• Աշխարհաքաղաքական ցնցում՝ ՄԵԾ ՀԱՆՁՆՈՒՄ. նամակ ընթերցողին
• Սամվել Բաբայանի մեղադրական սլաքները՝ ընդդեմ Օնիկ Գասպարյանի, և մեսիջը՝ Նիկոլ Փաշինյանին

• Հայաստանի այս վարչախումբն այնպիսի հայտարարություններ է անում, որ Ռուսաստանի հետ խաղաթուղթ չունենաս։ Սրանք իրենց հայտարարություններով Ռուսաստանին թույլ տվեցին չկատարել իր պարտավորությունները։

• Արևմուտքը շատ լավ էլ ծախվում է։ Ալիևն ամեն ինչ կմարսի։ Եվրոպան ամեն ինչ կծախի նավթի ու գազի համար։

• Երբ Թուրքիան ամեն ինչ ստանա, ի վերջո, կբացի Հայաստանի հետ սահմանը, և դրանով կդրվի մեր տնտեսության ոչնչացման սկիզբը։ Մենք դառնալու ենք վիլայեթ, որը խանգարելու է ծովից ծով, Ստամբուլից մինչև Բաքու Թուրքիային։

Մանրամասները՝ տեսանյութում։

 

 

https://168.am/2023/12/10/1969670.html?fbclid=IwAR0YEbskWfSaiw3wcQq-DWA6R1yrcItQ9aZolUM__-8ezM1gJGGGhroYGE8

[Yervant1]

Dec 11 2023

Breakthrough In Azerbaijani–Armenian Peace Negotiations? – Analysis

December 11, 2023

By Robert M. Cutler

In a first-of-a-kind bilateral statement, without any external participation, Azerbaijan and Armenia have arrived at an extremely important humanitarian and diplomatically symbolic agreement. It is the first time Azerbaijan and Armenia agreed to coordinate on any international matter.

The humanitarian aspect is that the Republic of Azerbaijan—”driven,” according to the statement, “by the values of humanism and as a gesture of goodwill”—agreed to the release of 32 Armenian military servicemen, while the Republic of Armenia, equally “driven by the values of humanism and as a gesture of goodwill,” is releasing two Azerbaijani military servicemen. But that’s not all.

The Twenty-eighth Session of the Conference of Parties (COP28) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is now concluding in Abu Dhabi. The Twenty-ninth Session (COP29) will be held next year somewhere in Eastern Europe. In what might be called the most constructive and progressive act that “climate diplomacy” has ever accomplished, Armenia has withdrawn its own candidacy to host COP29 in support of Azerbaijan’s bid.

“The Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan,” the joint statement says, “do hope that the other countries within the Eastern European Group will also support Azerbaijan’s bid to host.” In return, Azerbaijan is supporting the Armenian candidature for membership in the Eastern European Group COP Bureau. This choice has now garnered Russia’s backing.

The choice of venue for COP29 requires unanimous consent of all the Parties. Russia had vetoed the bid of Bulgaria, the candidate from the European Union, but now Bulgaria has also withdrawn its candidature. The COP29 would have been held by default in Germany, if no universal agreement had been possible.

The bilateral statement reconfirms the two countries’ intentions “to normalize relations and to reach a peace treaty on the basis of respect for the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity.” It concludes that they “will continue their discussions regarding the implementation of more confidence-building measures,” to take effect in the near future, that “will positively impact the entire South Caucasus region.” This agreement was worked out through direct contacts between the Presidential Administration of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Office of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia.

All third-party mediation, with the possible exception of the American initiative, had collapsed by mid-2023. In fact, this new first-ever agreement illustrates how direct bilateral talks, on which Azerbaijan had insisted for some time, can be more efficacious than mediated negotiations. The latter provide the mediator with the opportunity to insert their own interests into the bilateral relationship, thus actually complicating the negotiations.

After the November 2020 Trilateral Statement on the cessation of hostilities, agreed in Moscow through direct high-level mediation, Russia dominated the peace process (such as it was) for about a year. Of course, Russia’s main motive at the time was to delay or make impossible a full and authoritative resolution of the conflict, in order to conserve its dominant position in the South Caucasus.

This monopoly began to be broken in December 2021, when President of the European Council Charles Michel hosted the first of several meetings between the two leader, under the auspices of his good offices in Brussels. Tangible progress in that format continued through subsequent meetings in February, April, May, and August 2022.

French President Emmanuel Macron shoehorned his way into that process in October 2022 at the first summit of the European Political Community (EPC), in Prague. This led to the breakdown of the process, as German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz was subsequently added in. The early-October fiasco of the Grenada meeting put paid to Michel’s autonomous initiative.

Not only was a request that Turkey—a key regional actor—should participate alongside France and Germany explicitly refused. Moreover, the attempt was made to ambush Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev with a previously prepared statement, and to compel his agreement with it. Sensing the trap, Aliyev simply declined to attend, on the basis that repeated declarations by Macron and actions by the French parliament incontrovertibly demonstrated France’s incapacity to be an impartial arbiter.

American diplomacy entered the scene in early 2023. After over two years of confusion following the 2020 war, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken initiated a meeting held, in February between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, also attended by Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Karen Donfried as well as by newly-appointed Senior Advisor for Caucasus Negotiations (finally no longer representative to the defunct OSCE Minsk Group) Louis Bono.

An intensive meeting in Washington in May, mediated by Blinken between the two countries’ foreign ministers represented that rare diplomatic phenomenon, a genuine breakthrough. Armenian-American interest groups continually militated against peace through their strong influence in the Congress. Over the summer, they reasserted this influence, obtaining the appointment of James O’Brien to the post of Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs.

O’Brien gave disastrously misinformed testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on November 15, during which he announced suspension of all military and other assistance to Azerbaijan and, among other things, confused the Russian troops based inside Armenia at Gyumri with the Russian troops deployed in the formerly Armenian-occupied area of Azerbaijan. He also repeated the Armenian lobby’s baseless contention that Azerbaijan was preparing a military attack against the territory of Armenia.

An informal ban on high-level Azerbaijani visits to Washington was soon announced, but this was rescinded after President Aliyev reciprocated by cutting off all U.S. official visits to Baku. He rescinded this move after Blinken telephoned him personally to ask to allow O’Brien to visit Baku in early December, in return for which Aliyev received the rescission of the informal American ban on Azerbaijani visits to Washington.

When O’Brien met with Aliyev in Baku on December 6, he was exceptionally accompanied by the U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan. According to the State Department communiqué, they “discussed our countries’ deep historical ties and the importance of the bilateral relationship,” and O’Brien told Aliyev that “Secretary Blinken looks forward to hosting Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan in Washington soon for the next round of peace negotiations.”

In return, and in a final desperate attempt to block peace, the principal Armenian interest group in Washington has begun a campaign against giving Bayramov a visa to enter the United States. It seems, nevertheless, that U.S.–Azerbaijani relations are now more or less back on track; however, given the bilateral and various regionally-focused forums now available, what the U.S. can specifically contribute to peace in the South Caucasus remains to be seen.

Robert M. Cutler

Robert M. Cutler was for many years senior researcher at the Institute of European, Russian and Eurasian Studies, Carleton University, and is a past fellow of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute.

https://www.eurasiareview.com/11122023-breakthrough-in-azerbaijani-armenian-peace-negotiations-analysis/

[Yervant1]

Greece - Dec 14 2023

Greek, Armenian defence ministers meet in Athens, sign military cooperation agreement

Greek Minister of National Defence Nikos Dendias met with his Armenian counterpart, Suren Papikyan, during the latter’s visit to Athens on Thursday.

Following their meeting, Dendias stated, “We condemn terrorism and strive to protect civilians. We support everyone’s right to live in their ancestral homes. We endorse the resumption of negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, facilitated by the European Union, to establish conditions of peace and security for the region’s peoples. We stand by the Armenian people.”

Dendias noted that the meeting coincides with a period of heightened tensions, mentioning the situations in the Caucasus, Ukraine, and the Middle East, which contribute to various pockets of instability in the region.

Against this backdrop, Greece maintains a firm stance, Dendias emphasized, “We support dialogue based on the principles of the United Nations Charter and International Law. We advocate for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of all states, firmly opposing any attempt to forcibly redraw borders.”

The Greek minister highlighted the signing of a military cooperation agreement with Armenia, emphasizing its significance. He mentioned that this agreement is a top priority for the Greek government, aiming to create an innovative system for boosting the Greek defense industry.

Papikyan echoed Dendias, stating that this bilateral military cooperation has a rich history, based on traditionally friendly relations between the two peoples, mutual support readiness, and shared overall views.

[AMNA]

https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/1227186/greek-armenian-defence-ministers-meet-in-athens-sign-military-cooperation-agreement/

[Yervant1]

Armenpress.am

Armenia ready to restore railway communication with Azerbaijan, says Armenian PM

11:49, 14 December 2023

YEREVAN, DECEMBER 14, ARMENPRESS. Armenia expresses readiness to restore motorway and railway connection with Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said at the Ministerial Meeting of Landlocked Developing Countries, which Yerevan is hosting.

Speaking about the possibility of restoring railway communication with Azerbaijan, Pashinyan noted that it could be carried out through two pre-existing railways.

“The first is the northern route, which connects the Azerbaijani Kazakh region with the Tavush region of Armenia. The second is the southern route, which, among others, also connects the western regions of Azerbaijan with Nakhichevan. We believe that the western regions of Azerbaijan can be connected with Nakhichevan and the outside world through the northern route. We have officially expressed this readiness, and today, we reiterate it," Pashinyan said.

According to the Prime Minister the motorways also can have northern, middle, and southern routes, which will open new opportunities for the region.

“Basically, through the Crossroads of Peace, Armenia can connect and be connected with other countries along the north-south and east-west axis,’’ said Pashinyan.

“Moreover, we express the same readiness in terms of reopening the Armenia-Turkey railway, as well as in terms of reconstructing, reopening the two Armenia-Turkey motorways, which will have a significant impact not only on our region, but also on international economic relations, cultural, political ties, and global security issues, in general," noted Armenian PM.

Additionally, the Prime Minister underscored that all routes of communication must operate under the sovereignty and jurisdiction of the countries through which they pass.

“The next principle is as follows: each state, through its state institutions, ensures border control, customs control and security of all infrastructures, including the passage of citizens, goods and vehicles,'' noted PM Pashinyan.

 

 

https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1126221.html?fbclid=IwAR0KwkyFxM0-rDhSdkiuIyumFcDuZyfyBGRLg_cSBzIDim0InW0GRTwOOPU

[Yervant1]

 

IG News, India

Dec 18 2023

 

India’s Akash missile system can destroy not 4 but 64 targets simultaneously.

 

The Akash missile system of India, the Air Force of Armenia, the Philippines, Armenia IG news

India has done something that no country in the world has done so far. Because so far many countries in the world have claimed that they have systems that can target multiple targets at the same time, but no one has shown it yet. However, for the first time, India has released a video of hitting 4 targets simultaneously with the Akash missile system.

The Akash weapon system was originally designed and developed by the Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO). This precision defense system in India has received orders from international customers. It is also regularly updated by DRDO scientists. This missile system was tested by India on December 12 at Surya Lanka Air Force Base.

Recently, the Philippines signed an agreement worth 375 million dollars with India to buy the BrahMos missile. China has a conflict with the Philippines on many issues, and is engaged in strengthening the defense system, in this situation it has also shown interest in the air defense system. At the same time, Egypt and Armenia have expressed their interest in purchasing the Akash defense system.

 

What is the specialty of heaven?

Akash is a short-range air-to-air missile system, which protects against air attacks. The Akash Weapon System (AWS) can engage multiple targets simultaneously in a group or independent mode. It has anti-counterfeiting (ECCM) facilities. The entire weapon system is optimized for mobile devices. Along with this there are 3 types of Akash, which range from 4.5 kilometers to 90 kilometers. It has the ability to easily shoot down helicopters, fighter jets, UAVs etc. Also, it automatically detects the target until it is killed.

Akash One has a range of 25 kilometers and can engage 4 targets simultaneously. In addition, the range of other species is 40 km. It can easily kill 12 targets. The extent of the third range is 90 km and is named Akash NG. If we talk about the NG variant, it has the power of 98 percent probability of killing. An Indian-made radar is installed on the NG, which can detect the enemy at a distance of 150 kilometers. Not only that, it is capable of killing 64 targets simultaneously.

 

Akash will be taken to Armenia soon

In 2020, the Indian government approved the export of the Akash missile, after which 9 countries expressed their interest in purchasing it. Akash Technology is developed by DRDO and fully developed by Bharat Dynamics Limited. Bharat Dynamics Limited’s order book confirms that Akash will soon be delivered to Armenia. Until now, Armenia used to buy 94 percent of its weapons from Russia, but after the war in Ukraine, Russia refused to supply arms to Armenia. After that Armenia negotiated an arms deal with the Indian government. Until now, Armenia uses the Russian-made Pichora 125. However, he is currently upgrading his air defenses.

https://irshadgul.com/indias-akash-missile-system-can-destroy-not-4-but-64-targets-simultaneously-the-akash-missile-system-of-india-the-air-force-of-armenia-the-philippines-armenia-ig-news/

[Yervant1]

Dec 20 2023

India set to export Akash indigenous air-defence system to Armenia even as Azerbaijan sees red

New Delhi: India is set to export its indigenously developed air-defence system to Armenia, expanding its repertoire of military exports to the Asian nation. The deal, valued at approximately ₹6,000 crores, involves the delivery of Akash supersonic surface-to-air missile system, which is developed by the Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO) and manufactured by Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL).

Earlier in April, the defence ministry had alluded to an undisclosed export order for the air-defence system without divulging details about the recipient nation. This move follows a pattern of exports to Armenia, encompassing the Pinaka multi-barrel rocket launchers, artillery guns, various ammunition types, and drones.

Sources within the defence establishment indicate that shipments of the Akash air-defence systems to Armenia are poised to commence soon. Notably, the export of the Akash system is not limited to Armenia alone. India has offered it for export to other countries, including Vietnam and the Philippines.

The Indian Army and the Indian Air Force have already operationalized the Akash air defence system.

Recently, as India Sentinels reported, the Akash air-defence system was successful in destroying four aerial targets simultaneously. It was the first such achievement in the 25-kilometre range by any surface-to-air missile system in the world.

Azerbaijan upset

Arms sales to Armenia by other countries, including India, has upset Azerbaijan – Armenia’s archenemy. Earlier this month, the Azeri president, Ilham Aliyev, warned India and France against providing Yerevan with weapons that may pose Baku a threat. Aliyev said such supplies could start a new war in the region.

In a news conference on December 6, Aliyev also said Azerbaijan “will have to react to protect its people” should Armenia start receiving serious weapons from India and France, adding that he has already “warned everybody”.

Previously, in November 2022, Kalyani Strategic Systems announced a deal worth $155.5 million (worth around ₹1,265 crore at that time) for 155mm advanced towed artillery guns with an undisclosed overseas customer, which later was revealed as Armenia.

This peeved Baku and the Azeri media criticized New Delhi’s move to sell the advanced howitzers and the Pinaka multi-barrel rocket system to Yerevan.

In a July op-ed titled “India’s warmongering in south Caucasus is wake-up call for Azerbaijan, Turkey and Pakistan” in Azernews, the author, Rena Murshid, wrote India’s “main reason” for deep ties with Armenia is Azerbaijan’s “fraternal relations” with Pakistan.

She wrote: “At present, while the situation in the south Caucasus is tense, and when both Europe and Russia are competing to solidify their influence in the region, India’s such behaviour (selling advanced military platforms to Armenia) could mean just an act of destabilizing the region.”

Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict

Azerbaijan and Armenia have resorted to military conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh (officially called the Republic of Artsakh or the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh), which is a landlocked enclave inside Azerbaijan but had a majority population of ethnic Armenians until this year. The conflict between the two former Soviet republics over the control of the enclave escalated into a full-scale war in the early 1990s following the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

Armenia won that war, which led to the occupation of regions around Soviet-era Nagorno-Karabakh. This resulted in tit-for-tat expulsions of ethnic Armenians from Azerbaijan and ethnic Azerbaijanis from Armenia.

In 1993, the United Nations security council adopted four resolutions backing Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity and demanded the immediate withdrawal of Armenian forces from all Azeri territories. The ceasefire ending the war, signed in 1994 in Bishkek, was followed by two decades of relative stability.

Things then deteriorated significantly in the 2010s and escalated to a four-day bloody conflict in 2016, in which hundreds of soldiers and people died. However, the frontline remained mostly unchanged.

In late 2020, after 30 years, the second full-scale war erupted between the two countries over Nagorno-Karabakh. This time, Azerbaijan scored a huge victory. An armistice was established by a tripartite ceasefire agreement on November 10, resulting in Azerbaijan regaining all the occupied territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh as well as capturing one-third of the enclave itself.

Ceasefire violations in Nagorno-Karabakh and on the Armenian–Azerbaijani border continued, and Azerbaijan began blockading Artsakh in December 2022, and launched a large-scale military offensive in September this year.

This resulted in the total capitulation of Armenian forces and surrender of the Artsakh (Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh) authorities. Almost all the ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh fled the enclave and Artsakh is set to dissolve by January 1, 2024.

https://www.indiasentinels.com/diplomacy/india-set-to-export-akash-indigenous-air-defence-system-to-armenia-even-as-azerbaijan-sees-red-6085#google_vignette

[Yervant1]

 

Dec 20 2023

 

Greece, Cyprus and Armenia sign tripartite military cooperation plan for 2024

The joint Greece-Cyprus-Armenia action plan for 2024 was signed on December 18 in Yerevan by the Head of the International Organisations Section of the Hellenic National Defence General Staff (GEETHA), Brigadier General Vasileios Tsamis, the Head of the International Cooperation Department of the Cyprus National Guard General Staff, Colonel Alkiviadis Alkiviadis, and the head of the Department of Defence Policy and International Cooperation of Armenia’s Ministry of Defence, Levon Ayvazyan.

As announced today by GEETHA, the 2024 plan is a continuation of the 2023 plan, is part of the Greece-Cyprus-Armenia Tripartite Military Dialogue, and includes, among other actions:

● Staff participation in operational training exercises and activities.

● Joint training of Special Forces – Special Operations Forces.

● Carrying out co-training using simulators.

● The exchange of experiences and lessons learned from the use of Air Defence Systems and Unmanned Combat Aircraft, and more generally on items related to Air Defence.

● Co-training on Management and Leadership subjects.

● Staff meetings and conversations on matters of mutual interest.

With the signing of the plan for 2024, the statement added, the already close military cooperation between the Armed Forces of the three countries is further deepened in the context of their defence coordination, and the joint effort to address common challenges is strengthened to strengthen peace of security and stability in the Caucasus and Eastern Mediterranean region.

https://greekcitytimes.com/2023/12/20/greece-cyprus-and-armenia-2024/

[Yervant1]

Dec 24 2023

Current Crisis In Russian-Armenian Relations Reflects Changes In Both Countries – OpEd

December 24, 2023

By Paul Goble

The current deterioration of relations between Moscow and Yerevan is not the result of bad personal relations between Putin and Pashinyan, Sergey Markedonov says, but rather reflects fundamental changes in each, including most prominently Russia’s dependence on Azerbaijan and Turkey and a generational shift in Armenia.

The changes in Armenia are more immediately striking, but the changes in Russia may ultimately prove more important, according to the Russian specialist on the Caucasus now at MGIMO (profile.ru/abroad/iz-za-chego-v-otnosheniyah-moskvy-i-erevana-nachalsya-krizis-i-kak-daleko-on-zajdet-1431698/).

Not only has Armenia lost Karabakh and the role that disputed territory played in defining Yerevan’s politics at home and abroad – the new leadership in Yerevan came to power on issues not related to that one — Markedonov says; but an entirely new generation of Armenian leaders has come to power, one whose members have little memory of Soviet times.

In 1991, the current Armenian prime minister was 16, his foreign minister was 12, his Security Council secretary eight, the head of the Armenian parliament was 11, and the mayor of Yerevan only two. And thus it is indicative that “Pashinyan became the first leader of post-Soviet Armenia for whom Russian wasn’t a native language but a learned one!”

Consequently, this new ruling group was prepared to move away from Moscow and seek expanded ties elsewhere. Their predecessors had already distanced themselves from Russia but had not moved toward the divorce that the Pashinyan government appears to be heading, Markedonov continues.

At the same time, he says, Russia had its own reasons for shifting away from Armenia, reasons that are “often forgotten in Yerevan.” Putin’s “special military operation” not only meant that Moscow was focusing primarily on Ukraine but was reevaluating relations with other countries in terms of that conflict.

“For Russia today, it is more important to preserve the Turkish and Azerbaijani ‘windows’ to the outside world and to avoid the opening of ‘a second front’ in the Trans-Caucasus than to struggle for the preservation there of the former status quo,” Markedonov argues.

For that reason and because it is “difficult to be more Armenian than Armenia” as far as Karabakh is concerned, Moscow has distanced itself from Yerevan at least for the present – although Markedonov expresses the hope that the situation could change once again just as it did a century ago.

https://www.eurasiareview.com/24122023-current-crisis-in-russian-armenian-relations-reflects-changes-in-both-countries-oped/