THE THOUGHTLESS NEIGHBORS OF ARMENIA

[Yervant1]

THE THOUGHTLESS NEIGHBORS OF ARMENIA

Editorial, 30 September 2014
http://www.keghart.com/Editorial-Neighbors-Thoughtless#comments

In addition to being landlocked, Armenia, since independence, has
had to manage in a rough and threatening neighborhood. Of its four
neighbors, only one could be unequivocally described as friendly.

The Turkbeijan Twins of Turkey and Azerbaijan have made no secret
of their pervasive hostility. Turkey remains an obdurate foe with
dreams of a Turkic empire--a dream for a contiguous land mass from
the Bosphorus to the Great Wall of China--that can't be realized
without the erasure of Armenia from the map.

Ankara also refuses to acknowledge the Genocide of Armenians, let
alone offer to return some of Western Armenia. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan
soldiers make almost daily incursions into Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia
as Baby Aliev Tweets threats to its western neighbor. Recently Baku
has begun making deranged claims that Armenia is part of historic
Azerbaijan, although the fabrication called Azerbaijan isn't even
a century old. Finally, the Turkbeijan Twins have publicly gloated
that because of their blockade of Armenia, the latter's economy is
in a downward spiral and the population has sharply declined.

North of Armenia is--to put it mildly--an unreliable Georgia. Because
it lies (double entendre intended) between Russia and Armenia, it has
been--for several decades--Yerevan's lifeline to the north. Armenia
needs a friendly and peaceful Georgia. However, the latter has a long
anti-Armenian tradition and now oppresses Armenians of Javakhk, and
through ethnocentric--if not racist--policies tries to assimilate
the Armenians of Georgia. Yerevan has been silent in the face of
Tbilisi's provocative policies because Yerevan needs the Georgian
"bridge" to Russia.

In recent years Turkey has strengthened its presence in Georgia
through investments, technical and military assistance. It has urged
Tbilisi to settle Turkish Mingrelians in Armenian Javakhk. This
past summer Armenia witnessed the further strengthening of economic,
political, military ties between Georgia and the Turkbeijan Twins. The
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline,
the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway have become the cornerstones of the
trilateral partnership. And just a few weeks ago, Tbilisi is said
to have announced ("Chorort Ishkhanoutune", Sept. 3) that it would
not allow Russian military planes to fly to Armenia using Georgian
air space. According to the newspaper, the Russian base in Gyumri is
short of supplies because of the ban. Such a decision would pose an
existential threat to Armenia in case of Azerbaijani attack.

That leaves Iran as Armenia's only reliable neighbor. Tehran is
eager to strengthen its relations with Yerevan, invest in Armenia,
help build railways, roads, oil industry infrastructure, etc.

Unfortunately, Iran itself is hurting in a Western blockade. As well,
Iran is a revolutionary Islamic regime: no one knows where it's
headed. There's also--for Armenia--the problem of putting all its
eggs in one basket. Finally, Moscow had sabotaged or rejected closer
ties between Yerevan and Tehran. Moscow wants to be the only game in
town for Armenia. Russia has made no secret that it wants its armies
in southern Armenia and in Nagorno-Karabakh as "peacemakers". Since
it owns much of Armenia's infrastructure, since Armenia's economy is
vastly dependent on Russia, since Armenia depends on Moscow for its
safety against the Turkic Twins, Kremlin can throw its weight around
at will: witness President Serge Sarkissian volte face as it switched
from the European Community to Russia's Eurasian bloc last year.

To state the obvious, twenty-three years after independence,
Armenia finds itself in a dismal state. The economy is hurting and
the population decline continues unabated. How can a weak economy
and negative demographic statistics maintain an army which would
overcome nine-million population of Azerbaijan and an economy which
is luxuriating in billions of petro dollars?

If Armenia's population decline continues, Yerevan/Stepanagerd
could be forced to make suicidal concessions to Baku or even opt to
join the Russian Federation. In the above circumstances, a besieged
Armenia/Nagorno-Karabakh might also be tempted to go for a preemptive
strike of bellicose Azerbaijan. In such an offensive Armenians might
also be tempted to end their siege by establishing a "land bridge"
to connect Nagorno-Karabakh to southwestern Russia (Dagestan). As the
bird flies, the distance from Armenian-occupied Agdam to Dagestan
is about 150 km. The reckless idea has already been floated by
Lieutenant-General and Artsakh War hero Arkady Der-Matteosyan. It
might be his idea or he could be fronting for a political group,
factions in the army or even people in the parliaments of Armenia
and Nagorno-Karabakh. The idea could also be a trial balloon.

If Armenia succeeds in such a dangerous strike, it would command
the pipelines which transport gas and oil to Georgia, Turkey, the
Mediterranean, and to Europe. Since the pipelines were funded by
Western investments, the repercussions of such an Armenian aggression
would be global. Armenia would be condemned all around. Turkey could
threaten Armenia. One thing is certain: the Armenians wouldn't try
such a risky offensive without the green light from Moscow.

As reckless as such an aggression would be, desperate times call for
desperate measures. Errors conceive further errors, just as lies do.

As the Turkbeijan choke becomes unbearable, the Armenian side might
decide it is do or die time.

The thoughtless Turkbeijan Twins should realize the pressure they have
exerted might backfire. When driven into a corner, even the smallest
boy will fight the bully.

It's time Armenia's thoughtless neighbors realized that hotheads in
Armenia might decide to go for broke and send Baby Aliev's fiefdom
to kingdom come.

[yergatuni1]

I can see this happening. As the article explains, Georgia is the key, if it continues to be unreliable this will happen and I think Russia would back Armenia. Also depends on Russia's relations with the Tatars/Azeris (whatever they want to call themselves).

[onjig]

What a headache. Sometimes there are things we have to do, but can't.