Globalisation?

[Guest]

MJ, Yes kartsum em vor ko mtker@ globalization-i masin sharunakutyun uni.

I just wonder what was in edited part of your msg.

Globalization-@ ardyok chi hakasum bnutyan mek ayl orenkin - Batsasman-batsasum (iharke voch Marxismi tesankyunits...)

[Guest]

Ararat, I don't have polished formulas. It is a very big subject. I have expressed some of my thoughts in different sections of this forum. I have a trip tomorrow. Depending on my mood, I may keep going at it after I return

[Guest]

MJ, no matter how long we argue, we will always come to the:

1.Darvinism vs Humanitarism

2.Materialism vs Idealism

3."There is no God" vs "There is God"

 

The struggle for the perfect truth goes from the times when the human being started thinking about smth other than food, shelter, clothes, reproduction and fun. And this struggle will go on until the end of times.

You're true, the message of globalisation is: "Stop thinking about anything but prosperity, there is no God, and if there is smth beyond Earth, it's the extraterrestrials". I simply don't agree with this.

In case of Armenia: let's make it short. In case of FAST globalisation we'll have to be integrated in a regional economic system where turkey will be one of the leaders with great influence on Armenia. Here comes the question are we really sure they won't hit us again. Well, I'm not.

[Guest]

Alpha , I thought we were talking about the Church and not about some super market competition.

 

Globalisation , as understood by most people ,equals to Americanisation.

Are we all supposed to become Americans? What do they have to add to our rich culture and identity? Some IT ? TV? or what?

 

Don't take me wrong . IT and Tv is great , but they are not everything.

[Guest]

Dear Berj, and Raffi!

 

I think the establishment of the belief that there is only one God, is the first, historic act of Globalization. Before, as we know, more or less each nation, or better to say ethnicity, had its own pantheon of Gods. The second historic attempt of globalization was the spread of Christianity, itself. There are some Armenians, for example, who ask why would a Jewish man be our God. Let him be the God of Jews... Before some start lynching me (...lol...), let me rush to say that I don't share this belief, but it is a reality that this type of thinking does exist...

 

The most up-to-date expression of Globalization is the Internet itself...

 

Each new expression of Globalization has experienced a lot of initial resistance. The Globalization being discussed in this forum, however, is related to the Economic and Political Globalization. Do you really think Armenia can manage not to “flow” with it... I think, even China cannot escape Globalization, in fact they steadily move in that direction...

 

Ou resistance reminds me the saying that we are trying to be "more Catholic than the Pope."

 

[This message has been edited by MJ (edited August 31, 2000).]

 

[This message has been edited by MJ (edited September 01, 2000).]

[Guest]

Dear MJ jan,

 

Your last posting splits Globalisation into two parts, and I will add one too. So, Economic, Political and Spiritual.

 

Economic Globalisation is inevitable and those who oppose to it understand nothing of this world. Internet is clearly a part of economic sector and there is no doubt, in my view, that Armenia will be a part of its development if not one of the leaders, considering our brain power.

 

Political. Considering the amount of nucs posessed by states of different national interest, it can lead to a major calsh. I consider political globalisation too risky at present.

 

Spiritual. This was the main idea included in my original posting. I think spiritual globalisation will lead to Global Spiritual Stress, psycologically the human being always neads to see, learn and and evaluate smth new, other than he has seen and heard before. Spiritual globalisation will be an INDIRECT TIRANY. And the fealing of complete spiritual comfort, when people will not look for smth new, will lead to the stress I mentioned.

 

P.S. Let's discuss Jesus being Jewish in the Christianity thread.

[Guest]

Dear Berj and Raffi,

 

My fault. I apologize. I understand that Raffi's comments related to sticking to the subject (posted in the Guidelines to Interaction) were partially directed at me. I was tired yesterday, and didn't pay attention that in this section, even though we are using the word "Globalization," we meant a specific interpretation of it. So, I eat my words about what kind of Globalization is being discussed here

 

Nevertheless, I think my comment of Christianity on being an act of spiritual Globalization is still valid. Obviously, in this comment Christianity has to be understood as a system of spiritual, but not religious values. Christianity was “descanted” upon the Earth as a global system of spiritual values and guidelines. Do you think Chinese are right opposing this system of values?

 

As far as the political Globalization is concerned, I think it is more of a cure against the threat of nucs then a source of threat itself. Maybe I didn’t quite follow your point. Please explain it in more details.

[Guest]

Here in Europe , most of the intelectual class opposes the idea of Globalisation , at least as it is pushed down our throats .

 

The professors of Harvard on International Development , Dr. Jef. Sachs and Dr. Dani Rodrik have some excellent articles on these subjects. Those who are interested, should read them.

 

If all nations were free to contribute their ideas and their own experiences , then why not?

 

 

 

[This message has been edited by raffiaharonian (edited September 04, 2000).]

[Guest]

200% agree!!

It looks to me that US is making the rest of the world an obidient allie!

In this case the spiritual part of their globalization is the best working...Turn on the TV - you'll see...

[Guest]

quote:

---

Originally posted by MJ:
Dear Berj and Raffi,

even though we are using the word "Globalization," we meant a specific interpretation of it. So, I eat my words about what kind of Globalization is being discussed here

As far as the political Globalization is concerned, I think it is more of a cure against the threat of nucs then a source of threat itself. Maybe I didn’t quite follow your point. Please explain it in more details.

---

MJ, you said that you'll be reading the posts, so here is what I understand when saying Globalisation.
I understand every product of the human being freely available on each spot of the planet. By "product" I mean everything of Political, Economic or Spiritual caracter. To put it shorter, everything.
Well, I'll take some products of each caracter as examples.
1.Internet for Economic
2.Democracy for Political
3.Freedom for Spiritual

During the spread of these three kind of globalising products, all the entities of every caracter, being national, etnic or religious, must VOLUNTARILY agree to accept them.
Internet is clearly being accepted voluntarily and I don't think there are people who oppose it, as it is clearly a tool to increase the tempo of economy, to push the transfer of economic information globaly to eventually reach an equal spread of economic reasources on the planet. Well, it's one of the tools to make it.
Domocracy is a controvesial product, which is being imposed by the countries who have steady, stabile and carefully set up political structures, on the countries who have different political mentality conditioned by historic and climatic reasones. A clear example of historic conditioning of political mentality is that the counries who became subject to Mongolian rule in 11-th 14-th centuries and Turic rule in 11-th 19-th centuries, were left behind of economic and political development of the rest of the world. I think if not for these invasiones, the political mentality of particularly russians would be different. So as Western Europe developed its political institutions all the way from 11-th century up to now, the countries subject to Mongolian and Turic rule came out of the dark ages only in 17-th, 18-th centuries and some of them (ones under the Ottoman Empire) only in 20-th century. The inpact of these invasions was disasterous and is felt until now. So democracy in these countries, if not imposed, will come in long way of development. And the external push for it will again and again bring to different levels of internal tirany. A clear example is push for democracy in Russia and Putin's effective raise.
Political globalisation is a cure for political differences in case it's voluntary. In case when smb. is to win the race, it's doomed. And if some entity will manage to impulsively lay an order for whole worlds political system, it will destroy itself because of human being's natural antagonism to psycological stability.
Spiritual...

Sorry my brains are burning, until next time...

[Guest]

Dear Berj, here I go again... I claim every time that I am going to speak for the last time, but keep coming back

 

Overall, as a matter of principle, I agree with your statements. I see nothing wrong with what you say.

 

But as it pertains to Armenia, what is the conclusion?

 

Let me concentrate in this intended short message only on the subject of Economic Globablization of Armenia. And these remarks of mine are not directed at you, butrather are general remarks.

 

I am aware of the negative feelings that Armenian "ishkhanikner" have regarding globalization. They are not new. They have existed 10 and more years ago to the same extend. In essence, our "ishkhanikner" are scared of globalization, because their primitive mental, and the lack of adequate skills and exposures will not allow them to be competitive in a global market, and they will loose fast their spheres of influence in modern days Armenia’s non-existing or illusionary economic pie.

 

But the globalization, especially the virtual globalization, which I suspect you are supportive of, are in my view Armenia's only chance. This would not be possible, however, without political globalization.

 

Rejection of globalization dooms Armenia towards inevitable Russian and Turkish colonization. I am convinced that only the integration in global political, economic, and yes, in cultural dimensions, provides Armenia with a chance to maintain balanced and dignified existence.

 

I think we have to be a little more far-sighted, and get rid of the illusion of being the "chosen people."

 

We are very regular, very ordinary nation, with extremely narrow exposure to the competitive world. We haven’t known yet what competition is. And believe me, once you get out of your “papa’s house,” boy, is it something to be ready for.... And, by the way, the world by far doesn't owe us for its civilization... Sooner we realize it, sooner we can save us from future troubles.

 

Yes, we have a great potential ( at least I hope that we still have). But having potential and realizing that potential are two very different things.

 

Now, since some may want to jump at some of my statements, at the risk of looking defensive, but in reality feeling quite secure regarding my thinking, I have to state that I have no desire to persuade anybody.

 

I have no problem with practically and theoretically accepting that I may be wrong in one or more, or all of my statements and orientations.

 

But nevertheless, I see no point in arguing on these types of issues. We can agree, we can disagree, we can express our thoughts, but the life goes on, and let us also get life, and get moving on....

 

P.S. I am not advocating forceful globalization, but rather voluntary acceptance of its necessity.

 

 

 

[This message has been edited by MJ (edited September 10, 2000).]

[Guest]

If by globalization you mean American tyranny then I completely disagree with the idea of Armenia being globalized. The version of globalization United States is trying to force on other nations will lead to tyrannical rule of United States. The sheer economic power of US entices other, less developed, nations to accept the American hegemony, open their markets to American / Western products and thus become a colonial subsidiary to multinational corporation. The policies of World Bank, IMF and GATT are simply speeding up the economic colonization of less developed countries.

 

Every wise businessman knows that the initial, fixed cost of setting up viable business is vital for it’s success. By opening it’s markets to global competition Armenia is pushing it’s home grown businesses to compete with already established western companies who have wide distribution networks and unlimited marketing resources. I favor the South Korean model of development for Armenia, where government chooses several fields of development, which are promising and actively protects it from foreign competition, by imposing tariffs and other protective measures. Once these business enterprises have developed enough capital, and have achieved the necessary professionalism than we can open our doors to world competition and globalization. If you see at the examples of successful nations who were able to transfer their agricultural economy, South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, and Poland, you can see that they actively protected their domestic business enterprises. The example of India, which opened its doors to world competition, shows that opening doors is not the answer to development.

[Guest]

"If by globalization you mean American tyranny then I completely disagree with the idea of Armenia being globalized. The version of globalization United States is trying to force on other nations will lead to tyrannical rule of United States. The sheer economic power of US entices other, less developed, nations to accept the American hegemony, open their markets to American / Western products and thus become a colonial subsidiary to multinational corporation. "

 

I think Unites States has zero interest to establish hegemony in Armenia, if nothing else, at least due to the complete absence of buying capability of the local population. At least it is obvious to me that the current mental leads to Turkish colonization immediately after the establishment of Diplomatic relations between the two countries. In this sense we have to be happy that Turkey is imposing economic sanctions on Armenia. It seems to me that they are not very smart, either.

 

"The policies of World Bank, IMF and GATT are simply speeding up the economic colonization of less developed countries. "

 

This doesn't correspond to the reality. As far as the facts are concerned, the mentioned polices have lead to huge trading deficits for the United States. Mexico, for example, has tremendously benefited from NAFTA, while it has had no positive effect so far on the US economy. The globalization has had the adverse effect for the US economy's manufacturing sector, and has lead not as much to export of US products, as to export of US business contracts. This is what gives rise to third parties like Reform Party, or the phenomenon of Ralf Nadar in the US.

 

"Every wise businessman knows that the initial, fixed cost of setting up viable business is vital for it’s success. By opening it’s markets to global competition Armenia is pushing it’s home grown businesses to compete with already established western companies who have wide distribution networks and unlimited marketing resources."

 

 

What home grown business? I am not aware of any, other than a slim software industry, which only benefits from letting the US and other countries’ companies in.

 

"I favor the South Korean model of development for Armenia, where government chooses several fields of development, which are promising and actively protects it from foreign competition, by imposing tariffs and other protective measures. "

 

 

It is hard to disagree with this statement. Few sectors have to be off-limits. One of them being the Real Estate, for example. The role of the Armenian Government has to be balancing and diversification of the Globalization process. The market share and concentration of each given country or conglomerate in Armenian economy should not exceed certain percentage. This practice has long history in the free world. The regulatory role of the Armenian Government has to be fully exercised. The same practice is being exercised in newly deregulating sectors of US economy.

 

 

"Once these business enterprises have developed enough capital, and have achieved the necessary professionalism than we can open our doors to world competition and globalization. "

 

 

How? Development of enough capital at the expense of the poverty of more than 95% of the population of Armenia? What business enterprises? Is there any capable business class left in Armenia? Haven’t all capable people already transferred their capital to Russia and other former Soviet Republics, and established businesses there? When? When there will be just 1 million or less “kheghtj u krak” population left in Armenia, lead by "asphalti fedayie?"

 

 

"If you see at the examples of successful nations who were able to transfer their agricultural economy, South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, and Poland, you can see that they actively protected their domestic business enterprises. The example of India, which opened its doors to world competition, shows that opening doors is not the answer to development. "

 

 

But these countries already had domestic business enterprises. The machinery of the Armenian domestic enterprises has either been already sold thanks to late Hambartsum Galstyan, Zhoko, Yesaie whatshisname, and similar criminals, or is obsolete. The establishment of competitive business enterprises requires significant foreign investments, among other things. Subsequently, the human-labor, which has "enjoyed" the unemployed status for a decade or more, will require tremendous training.

 

 

 

[This message has been edited by MJ (edited September 11, 2000).]

[Guest]

President wants "political integrity" and "neutral status" for Caucasus

AZERBAIJANI TV,

Channel One, BAKU

8 Sep 2000

 

 

[Presenter] Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev's working visit to the USA

is continuing.

 

As we have reported, the [uN] Millennium Summit started its work in New

York on 6th September.

 

[Aliyev] Esteemed Mr Chairman, esteemed colleagues, ladies and gentlemen:

The 20th century is ending. This century will remain in the memory of

mankind as a century of spiritual and intellectual progress and the

bloodshed of two world wars, the collapse of empires and the emergence of

dozens of new independent states, the tension of the Cold War and joint

efforts in the name of peace and stability.

 

What will the world be like in the coming century. The end of confrontation

between two systems in history and the prevailing spread of the ideas of

democracy and the free market must promote the building of a world which

will take into account the interests of all states and in which a real and

equal partnership will be set up.

 

However, analysing the development of the international situation makes us

draw a bitter conclusion about the tenacious ability of stereotypes of

rivalry to survive. We are going through a very difficult period, when a

single wrong step might turn a situation explosive and return people to the

tragic days of the past. We must pursue a difficult path so we can create

just and safe peace and order. We all need to make efforts to achieve this

goal.

 

The main tendency of the present-day stage of international development is

globalization. We are all concerned about the prospects for this

complicated and unambiguous phenomenon. Globalization must help ensure

stable development, integrity and stability in the systems of ruling

states, the elimination of discrimination in economic relations and an

increase in the welfare of peoples.

 

The supremacy of the principles and norms of international laws,

consistency in changes, partnership and assistance by more developed states

for those less developed, mutual trust and recognition of national

distinctions while remaining true to values which are common to all

mankind, must be essential aspects of this process. The strength of

democratic development lies in its diversity.

 

Azerbaijan is making its contribution to the positive development of

globalization. Exploiting its geographical position, resources and

potential, which is of worldwide geostrategic significance, my country is

effectively fulfilling the role of a bridge between the East and the West.

This is based on its rich historical past and oriented towards the future.

We are making huge efforts to restore the Great Silk Road, to create the

Europe-Caucasus-Asia transport corridor and to extract and transport the

hydrocarbon resources of the Caspian basin to international markets. These

projects are of crucial significance for the free and full development of

states of several regions of the world. They will kick-start cooperation

and will have an effective impact on the development of the global

situation.

 

However, threats from outside and internal problems and pressure from those

involved in the struggle for spheres of influence do not give young and

weak democracies an opportunity to pursue freely the policy of

strengthening and developing their statehood - which meets the interests of

their peoples - and to pursue a peaceful policy. From the very first day of

their existence, they were forced to enter a testing battle for their

independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.

 

States suffering as a result of acts of aggression, the violation of

territorial integrity, ethnic cleansing and aggressive terrorism are fully

entitled to expect the UN to conduct the most effective actions possible to

establish just peace and security and to protect UN rules.

 

The Southern Caucasus has unfortunately become a region where one can see

the problems of these threats and risks very clearly. The main

destabilizing factor in the situation in the Southern Caucasus has become

the aggression by Armenia against Azerbaijan, which has brought innumerable

tragedies to millions of people. During the aggression, the Armenian armed

forces occupied 20 per cent of Azerbaijani territory, conducted ethnic

cleansing and expelled 1m Azeris from their native lands. In connection

with this, the Security Council issued four resolutions, which clearly

confirmed the territorial integrity and inviolability of the borders of the

Azerbaijani Republic and demanded that the Armenian armed forces should

unconditionally withdraw from the occupied Azerbaijani territories.

However, from 1993 to the present day, the Security Council's resolutions

have not been implemented.

 

Since 1992 the OSCE has been engaged in resolving the Armenian-Azerbaijani

conflict. But its actions have not yielded any results. Bilateral

negotiations between the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents are under way,

but the negotiations too have not yet yielded results. We have been

observing the cease-fire for over six years already, but it does not

resolve the problem. I am calling on the UN to take all the necessary

measures to help implement the Security Council's resolutions.

 

Peace and security cannot be achieved in the region without resolving the

Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict and settling the other conflicts, without

eliminating foreign pressure, including any foreign military presence.

Granting the Southern Caucasus political integrity and a neutral status

will allow for the establishment of normal mutual relations between the

countries of the Southern Caucasus and will ensure their harmonious

integration into the international economic system.

 

I thank UN institutions and donor-countries for the assistance they have

rendered to Azerbaijani refugees and displaced people, who have been living

in difficult conditions for over eight years already. We urgently need to

continue to attract humanitarian assistance, which is vitally important,

and to attract help in bringing these people back to their homes.

 

The UN bears a huge responsibility for the fate of peace and we pin great

hopes on it. Serious and rational reforms, including of the Security

Council, would increase the efficiency of the organization.

 

In conclusion, I would like to stress our joint responsibility for the

peace and security of our planet and express my confidence that the results

of the UN Millennium Summit will provide a firm foundation for our path to

the 21st century.

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Guest]

MJ I promise to reply to your post to my comments over the weekend, when I get a little relief from work. In the mean time enjoy reading the following article.

 

 

BBC MONITORING INTERNATIONAL REPORTS: ARMENIAN PAPER ANALYZES INTENTIONS OF RUSSIA, USA AND IRAN IN SOUTH CAUCASUS

BBC Monitoring Service - United Kingdom, Sep 14, 2000, 626 words

 

 

A journalist writing in an Armenian newspaper has suggested that Washington is "openly flirting" with Armenia to lessen Russia's hold on "the only geopolitical ally of Moscow in the region" and thus make Armenia more pro-western. The author also suggests that American analysts are not sure what to make of Iranian overtures in the region. The following are excerpts from an article by Robert Gevorgyan in the Armenian newspaper `Yerkir' entitled "Competing structures in Pan-Caucasian security system".

 

Despite Washington's obvious intentions to change the stress of its foreign political course on post-Soviet territory, the aim of American geopolitical efforts in the South Caucasus remains the same. Observers see these intentions as being a policy of "playing a game using the hands of others". The aim of the USA's geopolitical efforts is to weaken Russia's influence on Tbilisi, Baku and Yerevan as much as possible and firm up the three Transcaucasian countries' dependence on the western "satellites" of the USA.

 

It is natural that in this goal the specific nature of US-Iranian relations is of pivotal importance. These relations [between the USA and Iran] are a decisive factor in the USA's political course towards Armenia and Azerbaijan because the two countries are related to Iran as regards geography and geopolitics. And if the question of Azerbaijan's and Georgia's return to the "embrace" of Russia is on the agenda, then it is precisely because Armenia remains the only geopolitical ally of Moscow in the region. This circumstance is primarily based on military-political factors and close cooperation between Armenia's and Russia's defence departments. Armenia is the only country among the Transcaucasian republics which is a member of the [CIS] Collective Security Treaty and of anti-aircraft defence military-political systems and at the same time it has no relations with Turkey, which represents NATO's foothold in the region.

 

Simultaneously, it is obvious that Moscow's regional policy programme foresees the establishment of Russia's superiority in the whole Transcaucasus, and first of all, in Azerbaijan which is rich in oil. It is logical and natural that the question of Armenian-Azerbaijani contradiction will be used "as a coin" in these machinations, as it has been used in the past. Moscow's geopolitical efforts in the direction of making Baku return to the zone of its influence and strengthening Moscow's hold over Yerevan do not conform to Washington's plans which are directed at reorientating Armenia towards the West. The USA is continuing its policy of openly flirting with Moscow's only ally in the South Caucasus. [Passage omitted: it is thought Moscow is planning to strengthen its ties with both Yerevan and Baku to reduce Turkish and American investment in the Caucasus and neutralize American influence in the Transcaucasus]

 

One should also take into account that Moscow and Tehran are playing a separate game in the region and their interests do not coincide every time and everywhere. This becomes more evident in the light of the present activation of Iran's regional policy. From this point of view one must pay attention to the opinion of a number of Washington analysts who wonder if on the whole a larger or smaller strengthening of Tehran's positions in the direction of the Caucasus and Central Asia and in particular in the Transcaucasus is of benefit for the USA. Such a variant in the development of the situation, according to American analysts, will make it more difficult for Russia to succeed in its foreign policy course towards the countries of the region.

 

And if to the meeting of the "Caucasus four" (Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Russia) in Tbilisi there will also be invited the representatives of such interested sides such as Turkey, the USA and the European Union, the invitation of Iran's representative will also become a necessary condition. This will in fact produce a so-called balanced blueprint for a common regional security system, according to which Russia will stand at the same level as Turkey and Iran. Such a development would mean a reduction in Moscow's influence in the region, which may create tension in relations between Russia and Iran.

 

Source: 'Yerkir', Yerevan, in Armenian 13 Sep 00 p6 /BBC Monitoring/ © BBC.

[Guest]

Guys I have a question,

 

The national security of Armenia on the border with turkey is currently provided by Russia. Taking into account the precedent of Cyprus, when one NATO member invaded a territory which was another NATO member's national interest sphere, can we rely on the pricipals of crisis management applied in the security structures of the West.

[Guest]

I don’t think Armenia can simply rely on the Western security structures, since your example shows that they are not a guarantee. But I think it would be very naive to assume that the CIS (Russian) security structures are any more guarantees for Armenia. We know that the Russian foreign policy in our region swings from one direction to another direction, any time they feel one of the former republics pulls too much away from its sphere of influence. We have seen that even the former Soviet security structures were not guarantees for Armenia, either. Everybody who was aware of the Soviet Military Tactical Plans knew that the Soviet Military Detachments’ function was to halt the NATO (meaning Turkish) advancement for seven minutes, until their Air Escadron from the territory of Georgia arrives to inflict further damage on the enemy. The Army was supposed to halt the advancement of Turkish forces just North of Northern Caucasus. Soviets never had an intention to fight for Armenia, but to use it as a buffer zone, until they bring together their act, to stop the advancing Army at the Southern borders of Mother Russia.

 

My understanding is that the Russian military presence in Armenia is of symbolic significance today, too. Their personnel is only fulfilling a function for protecting the borders in a literal sense of the word, which of coarse is very important from the point of view of diminishing the drug trafficking appetite of some interested parties, as well as other contrabands.

 

If we are talking about the anti-air defense, I suspect that this is also of symbolic character. The Russian anti-defense systems have proven to be useless in Iraq and Yugoslavia. Of coarse, these systems are providing more than adequate defense against the Azerbaijan’s unsophisticated Air Force. But I doubt they can serve on this capacity against Turkey’s (NATO) Air Force.

 

I am not aware of any guaranteed security structures for Armenia. I think Armenia cannot afford (financially) to bring together its own absolute security guarantees, either. Therefore, for very long time it has to live with the risk of not being reliably protected against Turkey.

 

I think that Armenia has to endorse any security structures available, including simultaneous Russian, Western and Iranian structures. I think a new security model may be required. But Armenia has to also work on reducing the potential risks through diplomatic initiatives. This may also free up a lot of valuable monetary resources for the development of the Armenian economy.

 

Obviously these are very complex issues, and without being experts, or knowing the details of the playing field, it would be very hard for us to give really qualified answers.

[Guest]

I absolutely agree with MJ's thought, and will add (unfortunately) that, Armenia will destroy itself by "Nafar Pahogh" Government structure. What couldn't done Kyazim Karabekir against "Bah u Kloong" defense, will do Ismail Cem against S-400(!) and Tayfoon-s. Actually there is no need any military action. Soon Armenia will have lots of Turkish Harems (with the countenance of many private Turkish businesses). Just 2 years ago, in Los Angeles, Robert Kocharyan promised guaranty for Diaspora businesses. According to the US embassy in 1999 72 American businessmen were rubbed in Armenia. Where is your guaranty Mr. Bedny Rubo (Eshi glookh- sorry for this expression). One of my hobbies is to collect (from newspapers) pictures of Kocharyan with cup on hand (Mechi parunakutyune parz e). Nation giving to the world culture Narekatsi-Koochak, today become Aborigens.

 

As I said before we need western approved (!) Junta. Not like now-days Birdan-Agha so called [impostor] "Yergrabah" (who never fought in front). We need smart dictator - like Shvardnadze. Just look at Pinochet. During 20 years Chili became 2-nd powerful economy in Latin America (from 2-nd at the bottom in 1973). That's why when recently he arrived in San Tiago vast majority of people with great joy welcomed former dictator. There was just 2 dozen demonstrators, who protested against him. Something to think about it. West always welcome Pro-Western military Junta (one like in Algeria, Tunis and Turkey!). This is our last chance. I don't like to exaggerate!

If somebody has another "project", with great interest I will hear him/her.

Thanx

 

 

[This message has been edited by Ararat (edited September 16, 2000).]

[Guest]

quote:

---

If we are talking about the anti-air defense, I suspect that this is also of symbolic character. The Russian anti-defense systems have proven to be useless in Iraq and Yugoslavia. Of coarse, these systems are providing more than adequate defense against the Azerbaijan’s unsophisticated Air Force. But I doubt they can serve on this capacity against Turkey’s (NATO) Air Force.

---

MJ
let me not agree with you in this point. I'm sure it's clear for you that Russia won't give its latest technologies to third countries. And beside that in anti-air forces having good systems doesn't mean anything unless you know how effective to use it. I have served in this forces and I think I know more about this. Have you heard the story how US tried to get one of the best anti-air systems in the world C-300? After spending 100s of millions dollars they got one model and then found out that the model they finally got is not in use in Russian army anymore
And a few words about Turkey's air forces. When Russia said that one of these C-300 will be sold to Kypus, Turkey told Russia that they will hit the ship that transport the system to Kyprus if it'll pass Black Sea. One of that system would be enough to put down many Turkish airplanes 100s of miles away from their border. I don't know the end of this story thought.

[Guest]

Garo, as you understand, I am not an expert in these issues. Let's suppose that the anti-air system currently dispatched in Armenia is perfect. Let's go back to the political aspect of the issue. Is it a guarantee for Armenia's security. I think not, since the Russian policy may change in such a way that they may decide leave Armenia. It sounds not likely now, but it sounded less likely in 1917-1918 and 1990-1991. Besides, some day Georgia and Azerbaijan may decide to reverse their course of antagonism with Russia, and let Russian forces in. I think, we should not think that Armenia is so important to Russia that it will never happen. It seems like Armenia is important to them today, but we don't know how is their policy, or the whole regional policy going to change in the future.

 

As far as the delivery of S-300 to Cyprus is concerned, as far as I know, the system is already dispatched there.

[Guest]

I came across the following material, which is somewhat along the lines of my previous statements regarding a new model of security in Caucasus:

 

 

Armenia wants to cooperate with both NATO and Russia - defence minister

Snark

14 Sep 2000

 

 

Yerevan, 14th September: Armenian Defence Minister Serzh Sarkisyan sees no

contradiction in Armenia's cooperation with both NATO and Russia.

 

"Armenia cooperates with NATO within the framework of the Partnership for

Peace programme, and we do not see any contradiction in cooperating with

our strategic partners," Serzh Sarkisyan noted in an interview with the

Snark news agency.

 

The minister said that during the planned visit by NATO Secretary-General

George Robertson to Armenia in late September, the parties would discuss

further plans for cooperation and development of Armenian-NATO relations.

The signing of a document on the results of the visit has not yet been

scheduled.

[Guest]

DEFENSE AND SECURITY

September 18, 2000, Monday

RUSSIAN TROOPS TO ENTER ARMENIA?

Segodnya, September 14, 2000, p. 3

 

 

Before his visit to Georgia Colonel General Gennady Troshev visited

Armenia in order to inspect Russian military units stationed near Yerevan

and in the town of Gyumry (formerly known as Leninakan) in northern

Armenia. Then the commander of the North-Caucasian Military District held

talks with Armenian Defense Minister Serzh Sarkisyan. The sides discussed

issues of the 2000 plan of interaction between the Russian and Armenian

Armed Forces. Under that plan, a combined tactical exercise is to be held

by the end of the year. Armenian military units and units of the 102nd

Russian military base of the North-Caucasian Military District will

participate.

 

The sides also discussed air protection of Armenian territory within the

framework of the joint CIS anti-aircraft defense system. This is why

Colonel General Troshev visited a Russian division of S-300 anti-aircraft

missile systems stationed in Gyumry. According to our source in the

Armenian Defense Ministry, the parties also discussed the relocation of

certain Russian military units from Georgia to Armenia. However, Colonel

General Troshev did not confirm this information.(Translated by Andrei

Bystrov)

 

 

DEFENSE AND SECURITY

September 15, 2000, Friday

RUSSIAN MILITARY FLIGHTS OVER GEORGIA BANNED

Kommersant-daily, September 12, 2000, p. 2

 

 

Since yesterday, any flights of Russian military aircraft over Georgian

territory are forbidden. The official reason for this decision consists in

the Russian Defense Ministry's $41,000 debt to Tbilisi for the use of

Georgian airspace.

 

(...) From now on, it is forbidden for any Russian military aircraft to

enter Georgian airspace en route to military bases in Georgia and Armenia.

 

(...) Official Tbilisi needs military cooperation with Russia less and

less. In the sphere of radar monitoring Georgia is cooperating with NATO

and US structures. Relevant radar surveillance services are provided by

NATO military bases deployed in Turkey.

 

However, observers perceive a political motive in the current flight ban.

The $41,000 rubles Russia owes Georgia is insignificant in comparison to

Georgia's enormous debts to Moscow in other spheres. Observers say that

Russia's recent cancellation of the Bishkek agreement on visa-free regimes

among CIS countries may have something to do with the flight ban. Yesterday

Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze sternly criticized Russia's new

policy. Perhaps the actions of the Georgian government are a response to

Moscow's latest move.

 

In addition, Russia and Georgia are currently conducting difficult talks

over the future status of Russian military bases stationed in Georgia.

Official Tbilisi keeps insisting that the Georgian Defense Ministry's take

full control over the Vasiani military airfield. The Russian side has so

far rejected this plan. Another round of talks is scheduled for late

September and early October.

DEFENSE AND SECURITY

September 15, 2000, Friday

 

ARMED INCIDENT ON THE ARMENIAN-TURKISH BORDER GUARDED BY RUSSIAN FRONTIER

GUARDS

Vremya Novostei, September 13, 2000, p. 2

 

 

As we were told in the headquarters of the Russian Federal Border Guard

Service (FBS), three Turkish servicemen crossed the Armenian-Turkish state

border and penetrated 300 meters into Armenian territory. When a Russian

frontier detachment attempted to detain the trespassers, the latter opened

fire. A skirmish ensued. According to the FBS, there were no casualties

among the Russian servicemen. Since all the trespassers returned to Turkish

territory, they likewise did not suffer losses. Nevertheless, several

frontier outposts of the Gyumri FBS unit in whose area of responsibility

the incident took place, have switched to red alert: they are ordered to

maintain increased combat readiness. This stretch of the border is

protected by reinforced frontier detachments.

 

FBS officials are not inclined to dramatize the situation. At any rate, the

command of the frontier group "Armenia" has not yet requested support from

Russian army units stationed in Armenia. The Gyumri-based 102nd Russian

Military Base is to assist the frontier guards only in case of a serious

crisis. Air support is also guaranteed - MiG-29 fighters of the Russian Air

Force's 426th Air Group are based in Armenia. However, until recently the

355 kilometer-long Armenian-Turkish state border was considered a fairly

quiet area. In all of 1999, the four Russian frontier units patrolling the

border detained only 50 trespassers (35 of them attempted illegally to get

to Turkey from Armenia, another 15 to Armenia from Turkey). However, this

past summer the situation in the border became more complicated, especially

after Turkish frontier guards killed a Russian contract serviceman,

Sergeant Anatoly Zyablikov, in the zone of the Armavir Frontier Unit on

June 17.(Translated by Andrei Bystrov)

[Guest]

Anyone followed the news on Davos forum?

[Guest]

I haven't. What is it about, Berj?

[Guest]

Nothing special. A bunch of drunk swiss crashed a McDonnalds