ATTACK ON ARMENIA IN ALL ASPECTS, ANNOUNCED ALIEV

[MosJan]

While the co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group, international society and Armenian authorities make announcements that the conflict of Nagorno Karabakh should be solved out through peaceful negotiations, the Azerbaijani side headed by its President Ilhaam Aliev make opposite aggressive announcements threatening Armenian authorities. In particular, the President of Azerbaijan warned Armenia that serious blockade is to threaten the country, if Armenian authorities dont stop attacking policy. Any idea to cooperate with Armenia is a failure until the solution of Karabakh conflict, its participation to any regional project is not allowed. And we do everything to keep the situation, to strengthen their blockade, in order they understand what expects them, Azeri mass media spread the current announcement of their President. Aliev said that until Azeri territories are occupied by Armenia, the attack on Yerevan will continue in every aspect diplomatic, political, economic, transport, military, etc. Note that the current announcement the President of Azerbaijan has made in Government session.

[MosJan]

to asa iy yethim *(&(&

[Aratta-Kingdom]

PanARMENIAN.Net

 

Aliyev doesn't give up threats to resolve Karabakh conflict by use of force

17.01.2009 14:23 GMT+04:00

 

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said his country

will continue to strengthen its army.

 

He also informed that Azerbaijan concluded an agreement with Pakistan

and Turkey on joint production of military hardware.

 

"Baku is capable to solve the problems unaided and has the right to

gain back the occupied territories by the use of force," Aliyev said

 

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

WPS Agency, Russia

DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)

January 16, 2009 Friday

 

 

 

WAITING FOR WAR?

 

by Rusim Mamedov

 

ANOTHER WAR OVER NAGORNO-KARABAKH IS FEARED IN THE CAUCASUS; The

outbreak of hostilities in the Caucasus this year is possible over

Nagorno-Karabakh.

 

Dramatic events last August when Russia helped South Ossetia repel

Georgian aggression and recognized it and Abkhazia as sovereign states

fomented expectations of another war in the Caucasus. This time the

outbreak of hostilities over Nagorno-Karabakh is feared.

 

Leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan signed the so called Meindorf

Declaration. Brokered by Moscow in Russia, the document compels them

to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh issue on the basis of internationally

acceptable principles. Several days later, however, President of

Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev announced that the Moscow Declaration allowed

for the military solution to the problem. Also importantly, Azerbaijan

boosted its military budget to $2.2 billion i.e. more than tripled it

since 2006. It means that Aliyev's words are to be taken seriously, at

least as an indication of intentions.

 

A larger part of the Armenian political establishment and practically

all Nagorno-Karabakh population (solely Armenian, these days) are of

the opinion that the Meindorf Declaration does not recognize the

Nagorno-Karabakh Republic as a side of the conflict. In other words,

that representatives of this republic denied recognition cannot

realize their interests in full. The Nagorno-Karabakh settlement

formula accepted in Moscow stands for territorial integrity of

Azerbaijan and few Armenians find it acceptable. No wonder skirmishes

and clashes along the line of contact became undeniably more frequent.

 

It is clear as well that application of the Georgian scenario is

essentially impossible because Armenia all but recognizes

Nagorno-Karabakh de facto while Russia, Armenia's ally, knows better

than to spoil relations with Azerbaijan, a country more than loyal to

Russia and (also important) predictable. It does not, unfortunately,

rule out the possibility of Azerbaijani-Armenian hostilities.

Political deterioration in Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Nagorno-Karabakh

itself will make their outbreak a distinct possibility. In this case,

official Yerevan may succumb to the demands of the opposition and

grant Nagorno-Karabakh formal recognition as a sovereign state and a

side in the conflict (emulating what Russia did with regard to

Abkhazia and South Ossetia last year).

 

Stepan Safarjan, Secretary of the Legacy faction of the Armenian

parliament, is convinced that "... Armenia should put forth the demand

to make Nagorno-Karabakh the principal side in the talks." "Should

Azerbaijan attack Karabakh, it will leave only one course of action

open to Armenia and that spells official recognition," he added.

 

What side of the fence will Moscow support in another

Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict? What kind of policy will it need in the

Caucasus to promote its own interests? What will NATO and the United

States think of another round of the hostilities? What effect will it

have on Moscow's relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan?

 

Granted that the questions are mostly academic and somewhat

provocative at this point, answers to them are needed right now to

spare Moscow being caught unprepared by a sudden outbreak of

Azerbaijani-Armenian hostilities. Moreover, answers are needed without

delay for the Russian military and military-diplomatic circles and

analogous structures in Russia's allies to try and prevent this turn

of events.

 

Seeing another round of hostilities, Moscow will have the right to

demand an instant cease-fire and immediate negotiations. Military aid

to Armenia (no matter how covert) from the Russian military base in

Gyumri will hardly be the best course of action. If Russia does not

want to antagonize Baku, Russian troops in Armenia must remain

strictly neutral. The Russian Foreign Ministry in the meantime will

have to concentrate on preventing NATO countries including the United

States from joining the battle. Moscow will do fine demanding to be

allowed to deploy Russian peacekeepers or peacekeepers from

pro-Russian CIS countries on the line of contact.

 

Source: Voyenno-Promyshlenny Kurier, No 1, January 14 - 20, 2009, p. 3

 

Translated from Russian

 

[MyTerrain]

I don't know if it's all popularity boosting rhetoric or he really meant it.