Fireworks over Georgia

[MosJan]

 

Russian president signs Georgia peace plan-2

17:47 | 16/ 08/ 2008 http://img.rian.ru/i/b_print.gif (Adds paras 7-9)

 

SOCHI, August 16 (RIA Novosti) - Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed on Saturday a French-brokered plan on resolving conflicts in Georgia, aggravated following Tbilisi's assault on its breakaway South Ossetia on August 8.

 

"The Georgian-South Ossetian conflict issue was considered during a meeting of the [Russian] Security Council, and the president informed those attending that he had just signed the plan based on the six principles," a presidential press secretary, Natalya Timakova, said.

 

The plan contains the main principles to resolve the conflict in South Ossetia, worked out at the August 12 meeting between Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

 

These are renouncing the use of force, halting all military action, providing free access to humanitarian aid, the return of Georgian Armed Forces to their bases, the return of Russia's Armed Forces to their positions prior to combat and the start of international discussions on the future status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and on ways to ensure their security.

 

The six-point deal, altered to meet Russia's demands, is widely seen as leaving Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili in a far weaker position than before his costly attempt to seize control of South Ossetia through a military offensive, which left at least 1,600 civilians dead, by Russia's estimates.

 

The plan was signed by Saakashvili on Friday evening and earlier by the leaders of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which have been seeking secession from Georgia since the 1990s.

 

However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Saturday that the document signed by the Georgian president differs from the peace plan worked out by the Russian and French presidents.

 

"We are somewhat bewildered by the fact that the document signed by Saakashvili differs from the document worked out by the presidents of Russia and France, so the issue is still to be specified via diplomatic channels," Sergei Lavrov said.

 

He said the document signed by Saakashvili lacks the introductory clause.

 

 

[MosJan]

 

Medvedev signs six-point truce with Georgia

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has signed a French-brokered peace plan to end hostilities in Georgia’s breakaway region of South Ossetia. The ceasefire deal was signed by the Georgian President on Friday – although Russia's Foreign Minister says there are slight differences between the two versions. The plan contains the main principles designed to resolve the conflict in South Ossetia, worked out at the August 12 meeting between Medvedev and French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

 

The truce signed by the Georgian leader on Friday lacks an introduction, according to Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, but the six principles of the ceasefire plan remained the same.

 

“We are somewhat puzzled by the fact that the document Mikhail Saakashvili signed yesterday differs from the one President Medvedev and Nicolas Sarkozy have agreed in Moscow,” said Lavrov. “We are going to seek explanation on this matter through diplomatic channels.”

 

As for the pace of the planned Russian troop withdrawal from Georgia, it would depend on "how extra security measures for the peacekeeping force are being put into practice on the ground," said Lavrov. He said it’ll take as much time as needed.

 

"It does not depend on us only because we are constantly coming up against some problems on the Georgian side, and everything depends on how effectively and quickly these problems are solved," he said.

 

Meanwhile, President Medvedev has instructed the Foreign Ministry and the Defence Ministry to begin consultations with the international community, including the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). He wants to negotiate a possible increase in the number of military observers in South Ossetia.

 

Georgia’s President Mikhail Saakashvili signed the agreement on Friday, during the visit of U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to Tbilisi.

 

The original document already had the signatures of the leaders of the Georgian breakaway republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

 

Both Russian and Georgian troops will now return to the positions they were in before the crisis in the Georgian breakaway republic began.

 

However, Russian peacekeepers would take up additional security measures before an internationally accepted solution to the conflict is found.

 

U.S. President George Bush has praised the signing of the peace plan, saying it is a hopeful step in negotiations. Speaking from his ranch in Texas he said Russia should now honour its pledge to end military operations in Georgia.

 

Bush also reiterated that the breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia must remain part of Georgian territory and "there's no room for debate on this matter."

 

Meanwhile, Poland's President Lech Kaczynski has criticised the way France and Germany are handling the crisis between Russia and Georgia. He says Paris and Berlin are too soft on Russia because of their close commercial ties with the country and are not taking into account the positions of newer EU members.

 

Ukrainian authorities seem to be split over their position. Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko's parliamentary bloc says that Ukraine should not be involved in the crisis on either side and that the dispute has to be resolved within international law. This contradicts the stance of President Yushchenko who appeared with Mikhail Saakashvili at a support rally in Tbilisi.

 

 

[MosJan]

 

Biased broadcast? Moscow accuses U.S. TV of gagging victims’ stories

Moscow has accused an American TV network of bias after a channel broke off from a live interview with victims of Georgian violence in South Ossetia. A 12 year old girl and her aunt were describing how Russian soldiers saved them from the Georgian attack – but were bizarrely cut off after just two minutes. The incident has sparked huge controversy over the issue of media impartiality, with Russian government officials calling it a violation of journalistic ethics. Amanda Kokoeva, who comes from the San Francisco area, was visiting her relatives in South Ossetia for the summer.

 

On the night of August 7, she watched in horror as the war broke out. Amanda spent the night in her uncle's basement. The following morning, they fled to North Ossetia and eventually Moscow.

 

But they would have never made it to safety if it wasn't for the help of Russian troops, Amanda says. And she says that’s a part of her story that the American media has repeatedly left out.

 

Upon her return to the United States, she and her aunt Laura Tedeeva gave several interviews, including a live appearance on Fox News.

 

Laura told viewers: “I want you to know who is to blame for this conflict and that’s Mr Saakashvili who started this war and who is an aggressor. 2000 people were killed in one day...”

 

After a number of tentative attempts to stop her talking, at this moment the presenter more forcefully interrupted her, saying it was time for a commercial break.

 

“Yeah, I know you don’t want to hear that,” Laura responded.

 

Laura says she is not pro-Russia. Her mother is Georgian and her father is South Ossetian, but she simply wanted to tell the truth about what her family went through.

 

She told RT: “I wanted the Americans to know that Russia didn’t start that war.”

 

Laura says she prays for her family and hopes there will be no more bombing.

 

Amanda's father is currently in South Ossetia to make sure his relatives are out of harm's way. The family says everyone is fine and they will only leave their homeland if the fighting resumes.

 

Amanda hopes to see her father again soon. And despite her ordeal in South Ossetia, the 12-year-old girl would like to go back there one day.

[MosJan]

News Send to friend | Print version http://www.russiatoday.com/media/news/3/48a6d9a3795b0.jpg

 

Mikhail Saakashvili (AFP Photo / Vano Shlamov) August 16, 2008, 17:35

Schroeder blames ‘gambler’ Saakashvili for conflict

The former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has blamed Georgia for starting the conflict in South Ossetia and described its President as a “gambler”. In an interview with the German magazine Der Spiegel, he criticised President Mikhail Saakashvili and warned against speeding up the country's accession to NATO. "Imagine that we had been forced into military action on the side of Georgia as a NATO member, on the side of an obvious gambler, as one must describe Saakashvili," he said.

 

"I don't believe Russia is pursuing a policy of annexation and I also don't believe that there will be a return to the previous status quo for South Ossetia and Abkhazia. That is out of the question."

 

Schroeder told the influential magazine that the events shouldn't undermine Germany's strategic partnership with Russia and claimed Western governments had made “serious errors” in their dealings with Moscow.

 

"I think little of demonizing Russia, and I believe Moscow will soon see the need for greater integration into the international community," he said.

 

The Former Chancellor has close links with Russia and is Chairman of the German-Russian consortium building a gas pipeline under the Baltic.

[MosJan]

News Send to friend | Print version http://www.russiatoday.com/media/news/e/48a65f463988c.jpg August 16, 2008, 8:37

War moves from battleground to broadcasting studio

The South Ossetian conflict managed to dominate the airwaves at a time when viewers should have been hooked on the Olympic Games rather than horrified by images of war. Georgia's PR campaign throughout the conflict has been directed towards the West, portraying Russia as the aggressor. Moscow believes that has led to misleading information frequently appearing in influential international broadcasts.

 

The Georgian town of Gori became a broadcast battleground, as various media sources reported a Russian attack on the city.

 

Footage of what the Financial Times called the "ruins" of the city appeared on news networks - which came as a great surprise to Russian cameraman, Aleksandr Zhukov, who recognised his own footage as that of Tskhinvali and not Gori.

 

"When we arrived the news came that Gori was being shelled. I saw my footage and I said, 'That's not Gori, that's Tskhinvali! Having crawled the length and breadth of Tskhinvali I don't need much to tell,'" he said.

 

Larry King of CNN invited Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev on air to speak his mind.

 

"I don't know why it is being presented that Russia invaded Georgia. This is all disinformation and lies ... It's an information war," said Gorbachev.

 

He was followed by Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili, who waved papers at the camera and accused Gorbachev of being a man "who helped to bring down the KGB kingdom", but who was now "justifying what the KGB people are doing in my country." He went on to belittle the former Soviet leader's award of a Nobel Peace Prize in 1990.

 

While it may seem Russia has been 'losing the information war,' some major newspapers are beginning to tone down their initial anti-Russian stance.

 

The Washington Post has called the behaviour of the Georgian president throughout the crisis "erratic and provocative."

 

"When it comes to apportioning blame for the latest flareup in the Caucasus, there's plenty to go around. The Russians were clearly itching for a fight, but the behaviour of Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili has been erratic and provocative.

The United States may have stoked the conflict by encouraging Saakashvili to believe that he enjoyed American protection, when the West's ability to impose its will in this part of the world is actually quite limited ... It is difficult to explain why Kosovo should have the right to unilaterally declare its independence from Serbia, while the same right should be denied to places such as South Ossetia and Abkhazia."

Source: The Washington Post, 15 August 2008

 

Meanwhile, The Boston Globe writes that Saakashvilli made a strategic mistake.

 

”Given how overt the Kremlin's aims are, the fiery nationalist president of Georgia, Mikheil Saakashvili, blundered grievously when he responded to small-scale violence from local separatists in South Ossetia by sending Georgian troops to shell and assault the breakaway region's capital city.”

Source: The Boston Globe, 15 August 2008

 

And in London, The Independent's political commentator Mary Dejevsky chose to remind her readers just how the war began.

 

“And anyway, how did hostilities begin? Georgia sent troops into South Ossetia. The status of that region - which declared unilateral independence - is anomalous. It is inside Georgia's borders, but outside its control. But one reason why the dispute has not been solved is that the "fudge" over independence brought with it a degree of stability. Georgia's action upset that stability.”

Source: The Independent, 15 August 2008

 

 

French daily Le Figaro says the conflict is all about the continuing struggle between the two superpowers - Russia and the US.

 

"Even the most ardent adversaries of Moscow have no choice but to accept it was Georgian military forces that attacked the separatist pro-Russian province of South Ossetia, bombarding its capital and killing Russian peacekeepers who had been there for 15 years following the UN decision to maintain peace ... From the moment Bush became president he has wanted Russia to be isolated both economically and geographically... He must think there is no difference between yesterday's Soviet Union and today's Russia.

 

For a moment Putin believed in Bush's friendship and tried to provide some gauge of good will. Wasn't it him who removed Russian military bases from Cuba and Vietnam? Has he not joined the OSCE? And that's despite the disillusion and anger when the US installed military bases in Central Asia, Georgia, the Czech Republic and Poland."

Source: Le Figaro, 15 August 2008

 

 

[MosJan]

 

Saakashvili may be put on trial in Russia, say prosecutors

Russian investigators have launched a criminal case on charges of genocide in connection with the events in South Ossetia. Russia’s Interfax news agency reports that the Russian General Prosecutor's Office has said Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili may also be put on trial. Igor Komissarov, deputy chairman of the Prosecutor’s Investigation Committee, said it had "initiated a genocide probe based on reports of actions committed by Georgian troops aimed at murdering Russian citizens, ethnic Ossetians, living in South Ossetia."

 

According to the latest figures, about 1,600 residents and 74 Russian peacekeepers have been killed as a result of Georgia’s attack on South Ossetia.

 

Speaking at a joint media briefing with French President Nicholas Sarkozy, President Medvedev said double standards are inadmissible when evaluating the actions of politicians who are guilty of mass killings of civilians.

 

“The situation when one, who committed thousands of crimes, is characterised as a terrorist, and another as a president of a sovereign state, is very strange,” he said.

 

Meanwhile, Marina Gridneva, a spokesperson for the General Prosecutor's Office, told Interfax that Russian law allows for foreign citizens to be brought to trial if they have committed a crime against Russia’s interests.

 

She said that evidence of murder, following the attack of Georgian troops in South Ossetia, may be used as a basis for future charges against Saakashvili.

 

Aleksandr Torshin, Vice Speaker of the Russian Federation Council, said that Saakashvili and his closest allies must answer for their actions in front of an international tribunal.

 

But he said he is worried by some assumptions in the west that Mikhail Saakashvili is “inadequate and may be mentally ill.”

 

“In such a case there will be no trial against him. He would get a certificate, a ward, and everything would be explained that he is nutty. I fear such a development of events, and I have an impression that this variant is being considered in the west,” Torshin said.

[MosJan]

Medvedev Backs Independence Bids

15 August 2008By Nabi Abdullaev, Nikolaus von Twickel / Staff WritersPresident Dmitry Medvedev signaled Thursday that he would support independence bids by Georgia's separatist provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, as Russian troops roamed in Georgia proper, prompting outcries that Moscow was violating a truce reached with Tbilisi this week.

 

"We will support any decisions made by the people of South Ossetia and Abkhazia ... and not only will we support them, but we will guarantee them both in the Caucasus and throughout the world," Medvedev told Abkhaz leader Sergei Bagapsh and his South Ossetian counterpart, Eduard Kokoity, in the Kremlin.

 

The two separatist leaders were in Moscow to sign a document outlining the principles for a settlement of the Russian-Georgian conflict.

 

Russian troops poured into South Ossetia last Friday, rebuffing an attempt by Georgia's military to reclaim South Ossetia by force. Having routed Georgian units in the separatist region, the troops then moved into Georgia proper, saying it needed to destroy Georgian military bases and positions near the towns of Gori and Senaki to protect South Ossetia from further attacks.

 

Abkhazia and South Ossetia have long sought to be recognized as independent states. Russia never objected to their bids but formally pledged to respect Georgia's territorial integrity.

 

This week's truce says nothing about Georgia's territorial integrity, and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made it clear Thursday that the issue was not open for discussion. "You can forget about any talk about Georgia's territorial integrity because, I believe, it is impossible to persuade South Ossetia and Abkhazia to agree with the motion that they can be forced back into the Georgian state," Lavrov told reporters.

 

Lavrov later told Ekho Moskvy radio that mentioning Georgia's territorial integrity in any document connected to the settlement of the conflict would be regarded by South Ossetians and the Abkhaz as a "profound offense of human dignity."

 

U.S. White House spokesman Dana Perino told reporters Thursday that the administration of President George W. Bush considers such talk "bluster" and would ignore it.

 

With Russian forces firmly entrenched in its heartland, Georgia remained locked in a tense atmosphere, leading the government in Tbilisi to call for international intervention.

 

Lavrov said Russia would welcome foreign participation in peacekeeping in Georgia's separatist republics.

 

In Gori, the birthplace of Soviet dictator Josef Stalin, Georgian officials accused a contingent of Russian paratroopers of mining and looting the town instead of honoring an agreement to pull out and hand over authority to the Georgian police force.

 

Russian forces also continued to hold the western towns of Zugdidi, Senaki and Poti, but the situation there was more relaxed, local residents and the government in Tbilisi said.

 

The Russian commander in charge of forces in Gori, Vyacheslav Borisov, promised late Wednesday that his men would hand over power and leave by Friday. "We will go home tomorrow and the day after, but now we have to restore order," Borisov, a burly man in fatigues and a camouflage cap, told reporters at a checkpoint just outside the city limits.

 

The general said his troops were collecting weapons and military equipment left behind by the Georgian army when it retreated from South Ossetia after being overwhelmed by Russian troops last Friday. "They left everything, 1,000 American-made rifles, 40 armored personnel carriers and ammunition. This is highly dangerous to leave lying around," Borisov said. He added that his troops would guard what they found and then confiscate them.

 

But on Thursday, the Georgian Interior Ministry complained that Borisov's soldiers had reneged on their agreement to hand over control. "We had an agreement to send police forces into Gori today," ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili said. "But when our men came, they were not let into town and were then sent away."

 

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/photos/large/2008_08/2008_08_15/2_2.jpg

Dmitry Astakhov / AP

Medvedev meeting with Bagapsh and Kokoity in the Kremlin on Thursday.http://www.themoscowtimes.com/images/empty.gifhttp://www.themoscowtimes.com/images/empty.gif

 

The Russians explained that they needed more time, Utiashvili said.

 

Georgia's Foreign Ministry complained that the Russians were mining the town and said Russian forces were looting the Senaki military base and the Poti naval port, "destroying the property of the Georgian state."

 

A senior Russian Defense Ministry official, speaking on condition of anonymity, dismissed Georgia's complaint about troops in Senaki and Poti as "nothing more than another propagandist provocation," Interfax reported.

 

Borisov said his troops were not in Gori but only in the outskirts, and he said the local administration had fled upon his arrival: "When we came here ... there was no one in charge. So I called Tbilisi and asked them to send people to govern this place," he said, presenting a new mayor, Alexander Maisuradze.

 

Residents said they were desperate because the town had been deserted by much of its population of more than 40,000. "The Russians provide some stability, but we are all panicking," said Megi Abashidze, speaking by telephone with a reporter in Tbilisi.

 

She said that Wednesday night had been quiet but that residents had preferred to stay indoors. There was no gunfire, but explosions could be heard from a tank facility outside town where the Russians were destroying Georgian military vehicles, she said, adding, "We just want peace, peace, please."

 

Russia's Defense Ministry said its troops in Georgia might have opened fire Thursday but only to suppress fire from Georgian units.

 

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, as she stopped in Paris on her way to Tbilisi, called on Russia to honor the cease-fire with Georgia. Rice said Thursday that she would ask Saakashvili to sign a cease-fire document that will pave the way for withdrawal of Russian troops.

 

US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said Thursday he sees no need to deploy US fighting forces to Georgia, The Associated Press reported.

 

Lavrov on Thursday also telephoned his Georgian counterpart, Eka Tkeshelashvili, Georgia's Foreign Ministry said. It said Tkeshelashvili had complained that Russia was not honoring the cease-fire and Lavrov "could not answer the questions of Georgia's foreign minister." In a separate move, Georgia's parliament voted unanimously Thursday to pull the country out of the Russia-dominated Commonwealth of Independent States.

 

Kremlin may be bluffing over its future recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states, political analysts said.

 

Recognizing the separatist republics would not contribute to Russia's security and economic interests in the region and would come at great diplomatic cost, said Alexander Khramchikhin, a senior researcher with the Institute of Political and Military Analysis.

 

Also, by recognizing the separatists, the Kremlin would lose the right to criticize the West over Kosovo's independence bid, which many Western countries have recognized as similar to Ossetia's, said Nikolai Silayev, a Caucasus analyst with the Moscow State Institute of Foreign Relations.

 

Journalists covering the conflict spoke of harassment. Alexandra Szacka, the Moscow bureau chief for Canada's CBC Television, said Russian troops stood idly by as an armed man seized her Mitsubishi Pajero as she was standing in a convoy of about 100 journalists outside Gori on Thursday.

 

She said the attacker, dressed in fatigues, got out of a white car and suddenly fired a gun in the air. "Everybody fled, but I continued filming him shooting. That is probably why he went at me with his gun and took our car," she said upon returning to Tbilisi.

 

Szacka said three other cars were seized as well. On Wednesday, attackers outside Gori took a car and equipment from a camera team of British Sky News.

 

In Zugdidi, a town of 70,000 on the border with Abkhazia, Russian forces were patrolling the streets Thursday after disarming local police forces, a local member of the United Nations mission said. "But otherwise, the situation is pretty calm," he said, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the press.

 

Gia Nodia, Georgia's education and science minister, said that while Tbilisi had suffered human and territorial losses, a positive outcome could be that the conflict had ended uncertainty about the country's relations with Russia. "We can enter a healthier stage ... in which we see much clearer what [Russia] wants," he said in an interview in his office in Tbilisi.

 

Yet Nodia was skeptical that relations with Moscow would improve soon and accused Prime Minister Vladimir Putin of having a "personal obsession with Georgia. "As long as Putin is in charge, being Russia-friendly means being subservient to and slavish to Russia," he said.

 

Staff Writer Nabi Abdullaev reported from Moscow; Staff Writer Nikolaus von Twickel reported from Tbilisi.

[MosJan]

TBILISI, Georgia - Georgia's Foreign Ministry says Russian-backed separatists from the province of Abkhazia have seized 13 villages in Georgia and a power plant.

 

A ministry statement says Russian army units and separatist militants shifted the border of breakaway Abkhazia toward the Inguri River. It says they set up temporary administration in 13 villages and put the Inguri hydropower plant under separatist control.

 

The claim could not immediately be independently confirmed.

 

Russian-backed Abkhazian fighters forced Georgians out of their last stronghold in the province earlier this week. Fighting between Russian and Georgian forces raged in two breakaway regions — Abkhazia and South Ossetia — over the past week.

 

 

[Ashot]

"Gori in ruins"? You decide

Russia's ambassador to the UN Vitaly Churkin has dismissed media reports that the Georgian city of Gori is "in ruins." He called the allegations a "disinformation campaign" and pointed to the fact that Russian peacekeepers have in fact performed a humanitarian mission there.

 

The Russian military says it has been organising aid for locals who have remained in the city, and maintaining order on the ground to prevent looting.

 

People say they feel safer because the Russian soldiers protect them from the vandalism of local gangs.

 

But media outlets including CNN jumped on Georgia President Mikhail Saakashvili’s claim to have witnessed "first hand" two Russian planes bombing the city, and reported it as fact.

 

Speaking from the UN headquarters in New York, Russia's UN ambassador said the allegations were part of a "disinformation campaign."

 

Footage shot by RT shows a ghost town, where a statue of Stalin towers over the main square. Yes, there is glass on the ground and damaged cars, but a ruined city it certainly is not.

 

If there is one Georgian city that can be added to the pages of history for being ravaged by war, it's Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia - and Gori will remain a footnote on the “propaganda war”.

[Nané]

Conflict in Caucasus: risk or opportunity for Turkey?

 

A preliminary agreement to resolve the Georgian crisis is in place, but hostilities continue in the besieged Caucasian state, forcing Turkey to think about its priorities and face its dilemmas as a close ally of Georgia and with strategic ties to Russia.

 

The crisis began when Georgia attacked the separatist pro-Russian territory of South Ossetia on Aug. 7, sparking Russian retaliation. Scores of people have died in the fighting. Russian troops targeted not only the Georgian forces in South Ossetia but have also occupied parts of Georgia, including the Black Sea port of Poti. In sum Russia has repelled the Georgian attempt to seize back control of South Ossetia, which liberated itself from Tbilisi's rule in the 1990s.

 

Turkey cooperates with Georgia in the field of energy, and Turkey hopes to become an eventual energy hub for Europe via the gas and oil pipelines that pass through both countries. Turkey also provides the former Soviet Union country with critical military assistance and training. But it also has important ties with Russia. Russia is Turkey's foremost trading partner with a trade volume of an estimated $30 billion this year, up from $23 billion last year. Turkey is also a key importer of Russian natural gas, as experts estimate Turkish dependence on Russia for natural gas to be about 65 percent of the total.

 

Concerned over the escalation of the conflict, the Turkish government has had difficulty determining the correct response to the crisis. Professor Mensur Akgün, who lectures on international relations at İstanbul’s Kültür University, said nobody was prepared for Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili to make such a move.

 

“Nobody could guess that Saakashvili would defy the Russian giant; attacking South Ossetia means attacking Russia,” he told Sunday’s Zaman.

 

He said it was therefore not unusual for Turkey to be in an initial state of limbo, as no foreign relations expert in the world could have predicted such an act from Saakashvili. “Turkey has followed a healthy policy by not supporting one side over the other,” Akgün added.

 

Another seasoned observer of the region, Paul Goble, director of research at the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy in Baku, agreed. “I don’t think Turkey could have intervened earlier and prevented this. Indeed, I think the one thing Turkey could have done and still can do is to provide genuine expertise to the new and often inexperienced governments on how to read what the West and especially what the Americans say. More established regimes know how to balance what Washington says diplomatically with what it says publicly and politically. Had Georgia been able to do that, it might have avoided this problem,” he explained to Sunday’s Zaman via e-mail from the United States.

 

After initial calls for an end to hostilities, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan made a surprise move and flew to Russia and Georgia on Wednesday, calling on Russian and Georgian leaders to heed his proposal for a Caucasus pact. Erdoğan said such a regional platform would play a key role in preventing similar clashes in the future. He said it would also include crisis management mechanisms based on principles of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

 

Saakashvili backed the idea, saying it would be beneficial to create a common security mechanism in the region. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin also welcomed the proposal, and Erdoğan said after talks in Moscow that the foreign ministries of the two countries would start working on the idea. “Regional peace and welfare must be secured via cooperative projects that reflect common sense and mutual interests, not sentimentalism, clashes and tensions,” he said.

 

Akgün said this is the kind of role that Turkey can play in the region, similar to what it does in the Middle East. “Since the mid-2000s, Turkey has become a force for solutions rather than problems.” He offered the example of the Turkish-mediated indirect talks between Israel and Syria.

 

According to Goble, Turkey has some enormous opportunities but faces some enormous risks as well in the wake of the Russian aggression in Georgia.

 

“Its opportunities include establishing far closer ties with Azerbaijan and Georgia and assuming the role of a major regional power. Its risks include falling into the trap of a ‘cooperative’ venture with Moscow, something that would tie Ankara’s hands, forcing it to sacrifice its interests to Russia’s,” he said.

 

Goble added that it is important to recognize that Russia miscalculated even more than Georgia. “The frozen conflicts have been internationalized, Russia has suffered a black eye diplomatically, Georgia has left the CIS [Commonwealth of Independent States] and will get into NATO as will Ukraine, and other countries in the region will become more independent of Moscow as well,” he stated.

 

Turkey’s EU membership, energy deals threatened?

 

Turkey sits in a volatile region bordering Iran, Syria, Iraq and former Soviet republics. It wants to join the European Union, but some EU states’ hesitation to expand the bloc up to the Caucasus may have increased due to the Georgian-Russian conflict.

 

Amanda Akçakoca, a policy analyst at the Brussels-based European Policy Centre, said this is a chance for Turkey to show those in the EU -- the French president in particular -- the strong role that Turkey can play through taking a lead peacekeeping role.

 

“Erdoğan should be in regular touch with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Javier Solana [high representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy, secretary-general of the Council of the European Union] so they can work on a solution together,” she stated.

 

She also said this should serve as a warning regarding the Nagorno-Artsax conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. “Nagorno-Artsax is only a short distance from the key Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan [bTC] oil pipeline, where both Baku and Yerevan have been increasing their defense spending. Turkey could play a far greater role here, again together with the EU, before Nagorno-Artsax also blows up in the world’s face.”

 

Since Turkey severed its ties with neighboring Armenia in the early 1990s in protest of the Armenian occupation of Nagorno-Artsax in Azerbaijan, Georgia has become a valuable outlet for Turkey to reach the Caucasus and Central Asia.

 

According to Akçakoca, the EU will have increasingly close ties to and responsibility for countries in the Caucasus regardless of Turkish membership, but will be far better placed to deal with them with a strong Turkey.

 

Turkey has worked hard to become a transit route for Caspian and Central Asian oil and gas exports as Europe tries to reduce its dependence on Russia. But Russia’s invasion of Georgia has raised doubts about the security of oil and gas pipelines that cross Georgia and the wisdom of further investment in the pipelines.

 

Necdet Pamir, board member of the World Energy Council’s Turkish National Committee, worries about whether transit lines through Georgia will remain secure in the long run and whether additional foreign investment will be safe. “The Russians have demonstrated their military capability of getting very close to the pipelines, and they have shown that they can easily blockade Georgia,” he said.

 

Pamir said that if the gas and oil pipelines are closed, Turkey’s losses would total up to $12 million per day.

 

James L. Williams, publisher of the Energy Economist newsletter, was blunt about the possible repercussions of the conflict. “The Georgian president brought in the whole pipeline issue probably to send more worries to the West, and especially to European consumers, so as to draw more attention to the conflict,” he said. “It’s not that we should ignore it, but it’s certainly not a reason to panic.”

 

Turgut Gür, co-chairman of the Turkish-Russian Business Council, said he is not too worried as he believes that the risk will be limited to short-term effects only. He mentioned that trucking had been temporarily impacted. He said that both Russia and Georgia were important countries for Turkey, adding that “we can’t choose one over the other.” He noted that Russia values Turkey and is aware of what an important role Turkey plays in the region.

 

The 1,000-mile BTC pipeline represents the core of Turkey’s economic interests in Georgia; it can carry up to 1 million barrels a day of crude from the Azerbaijani coast on the Caspian Sea through Georgia and Turkey to the port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean Sea. The BTC is owned by a consortium of companies. It was expected to carry more than 900,000 barrels of oil a day this month for export, bypassing routes that would have taken the oil through Russia and subjected it to that country’s transit fees.

 

Deliveries through the BTC pipeline were halted on Aug. 4 after a fire was sparked along the Turkish portion of the route. The outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) claimed responsibility for the incident. BP also shut down a smaller line, the Western Route Export Pipeline, which was recently overhauled. It can carry up to 160,000 barrels of oil a day from Baku to the Georgian Black Sea port of Supsa. As a precaution, BP also shut down the South Caucasus gas pipeline, which transports natural gas from the Azerbaijani city of Baku through Georgia into Turkey. That gas is not exported.

 

17 August 2008, Sunday

YONCA POYRAZ DOĞAN İSTANBUL

Edited August 17, 2008 by Nané

[Nané]

Turkey-sponsored Caucasian union to start as an economic partnership

 

Turkey has mapped out the details of the proposed Caucasian union and plans to launch the association on the basis of the economic partnership.

 

Turkey had proposed the formation of a Caucasian union after the clashes erupted between Georgia and Russia. Turkey, as a neighboring country of the region, has close interest in the Caucasus in its efforts to ensure energy supply safety.

 

Ankara had stepped in to resolve the conflict with Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Ali Babacan had visited both Moscow and Tbilisi.

 

Turkey's proposal to establish a Caucasian union was widely accepted. The union, called by Turkey as "Caucasus Stability and Partnership Platform", is envisaged to bring Turkey, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Russia under the same roof.

 

Sources from Turkish foreign ministry told local media the union is planned to have common security and executive bodies, and would be similar to the neighboring countries of Iraq but in a more complex structure.

 

The works on the unions would start next week.

 

TOUGH TASK

 

Although the idea was widely accepted, there is a tough task ahead of Turkey as almost every country, who would take part in this establishment, has bilateral conflicts.

 

Turkey hopes this union would contribute to the strengthening of the relations between Ankara and Yerevan as well as the resolution of the Nagorno-Artsax conflict.

 

TURKEY-ARMENIA: Turkey is among the first countries that recognized Armenia when it declared its independency. However there is no diplomatic relations between two countries, as Armenia presses the international community to admit the so-called "genocide" claims instead of accepting Turkey's call to investigate the allegations, and its invasion of 20 percent of Azerbaijani territory despite U.N. Security Council resolutions on the issue.

 

AZERBAIJAN-ARMENIA: Nagorno Artsax is a region of Azerbaijan which has been under the occupation of Armenia since the war broke out between the two states in 1988-1994. In 1988 when the disputed region's Armenian-dominated governing council voted to secede from Azerbijan, it set of a series of bloody clashes both between and within the two neighboring countries. Some 10 percent of the Azeri population was displaced.

 

GEORGIA-RUSSIA: Russia was deeply involved at many levels in the conflicts in Georgia's breakaway regions South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and in 1993 Ajarian leaders also declared Russia the protector of their national interests. Clashes erupted between two countries last week after Georgian forces held a military operation in the South Ossetia.

 

[Nané]

What others say

 

Saturday, August 16, 2008

 

US-Russia tension

 

EMİN PAZARCI, Bugün

 

The real parties to the tension in the Caucasus are the United States and Russia. Ongoing developments are just a new phase of the U.S. operation in the Caucasus. The U.S. wants to be the sole ruler of the world. Mikhael Saakashvili, having been elected as the Georgian president, is part of this U.S. operation that disturbed Russia a great deal.

 

Russia owes a few trump cards to wrong steps by Saakashvili. Russian leader Vladimir Putin occupied Georgia as the Caucasus witnessed the revenge of the “Orange Revolution,” bringing Saakashvili to the government.

 

Is the world proceeding to a bipolar order? As for Turkey, we have official agreements signed with Georgia. We follow parallel policies with the U.S. in the Caucasus and acted together with other Western countries in the newly formed energy corridor.

 

So Russia is disturbed by us! Meaning, we have to have good relations with Russians. Turkey is dependent on Russian energy supplies. At the point we have arrived; Turkey should make a vital choice. Will it move together with the U.S. or will it form a different set of new policies independent of anyone.

 

The U.S. and Turkey are allies, but on so many different issues U.S. interests contradict Turkey's. Now we should set stronger balances in our region. Turkey can benefit from this bipolar world and better protect its own interests!

 

Strategy games

 

ALİ ÖNCÜ, Ortadoğu

 

It is a strong blow the world has taken in Caucasus. International forces were expecting a fight between the United States, Israel and Iran. So the Russia-Georgia scuffle came out of the blue.

 

What is happening in Caucasus is the revenge of Kosovo; it is an intimidation for U.S., the European Union and Turkey.

 

Russia had to challenge this single-polar world. It couldn't do it in Kosovo nor in Iraq nor Afghanistan. But since economic interests of others have started to push the door in the Caucasus, the sleeping giant Russia woke up.

 

This is good and bad for Turkey. The Russian challenge to the world is good for us in terms of our strategic position. What is bad for Turkey is changing balances in the Caucasus because Russia and Turkey have always engaged in hot encounters in this region throughout history.

 

No one should have expected that the Georgians would remain friends with the Russians. So this process is the advantage of Turkey. On the other hand, the course of events encourages Armenia.

 

Now we see the big brother in the region. Armenia is for Russia what Israel is for the U.S. The situation will not affect money markets in Turkey. Oil companies may suffer a little.

 

If Turkey provides munitions to Georgia this means Russia will feed the separatist Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, via Armenia. And I think we don't want this to happen. Do we?

 

Going on a date with Iran?

 

NAGEHAN ALÇI, Akşam

 

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is visiting Istanbul. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was in Iraq in July. He had said, “I am neither Sunni nor Shiite. I am a Muslim.”

 

Now Ahmadinejad is preparing to send the same message when the two leaders had the Friday prayer together.

 

Iranian leader met with the northern Iraqi Kurdish administration's second man, Najirvan Barzani, on Monday. “We are ready to fill the gap”: This was the message Ahmadinejad gave.

 

A common characteristic of Erdoğan and Ahmadinejad is that both are against the formation of an independent Kurdish state. Turkey is trying to bring peace to the Middle East and strengthening relations with the West so that they will not raise objections to the Iranian nuclear program.

 

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is pleased with the dialogue channel opened between Iran and U.S. via Turkey. But it could be a big mistake that all Americans are happy with this arrangement.

 

Plus, Russia is back to the arena of world politics after the tension with Georgia last week. The U.S. cannot touch Russia yet reflects this onto Iran so the likelihood of a U.S. strike against Iran is increasing.

 

 

[Nané]

Full Comment in Briefs: We're all Nagorno-Artsaxians now

 

By Kelly McParland

 

John McCain, feeling his oats, announced the other day that “we are all Georgians” now.

 

Georgia was under attack by Russian troops, you see, and since we’re supposed to sympathize with them, that makes us all Georgians.

 

It may not surprise you to know that this is not the first time we’ve all had our identities changed by a politician in the throes of oratory. John F. Kennedy famously declared himself a Berliner on a visit to the city. Ronald Reagan went a step further, declaring: “Standing before the Brandenburg Gate, every man is a German, separated from his fellow men. Every man is a Berliner, forced to look upon a scar.”

 

Reagan liked the line, which he had used earlier in another variation, declaring “In this profound sense, we are all Americans,” in a 1982 speech referring to two dozen countries in and around the Caribbean. A similar line, “Today we are all Americans” was widely used by U.S. allies after 9/11, including in a statement by Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu.

 

So we’re all Georgians, we’re all Berliners and we’re all Americans. I just hope no one attacks Nagorno-Artsax. I don’t think I could fit it on my passport.

 

Reader Comments

 

by RobertSzeged

Aug 16 2008 2:47 PM

 

I don't know if Kelly McParland's comment about "Nagorno-Artsaxians" is intended to mislead readers, who may not be familiar with the geostrategic situation in South Caucasus where Armenian-populated Mountainous Karabagh is located, or just shows her level of "expertise." If Armenians of Mountainous Karabagh will come under military assault, they will be defending themselves against US and Nato regional allies, namely Azerbaijan and its patron Turkey. The dilemma that the US, Canada and other Nato countries will face then will be if they want to say "we are all Azeris or Turks now." There will be strong pressure to do so from Israeili lobby (as Israel has extensive ties and interests in both Turkey and Azerbaijan). Alternatively, American, Canadian and other peoples can choose to call themselves "Armenians" to at least show solidarity with a small people who will be fighting for their political independence and physical survival. For Armenians in Karabagh political independence is the only guarantee of their physical survival. In the scenario outlined in the comment, Ms. McParland will face the choice whether to call herself an "Azeri and Turk" or not.

 

Click on the title of the article if you wish to read more comments.

Edited August 17, 2008 by Nané

[koko]

Saakashvili nervously chewing his tie.

Edited August 18, 2008 by koko

[Anoushik]

How the hell did he get himself in this mess? I'd often heard about Georgians being stupid but I never imagined that they'd show themselves to be that stupid.

[MosJan]

asum en j@ter@ ashnan en hasvum tesnenq vorchum inch k@lini - iom kartsiqov sa shat aveli met mi paterazmi s@kizbn e

[Anoushik]

asum en j@ter@ ashnan en hasvum tesnenq vorchum inch k@lini - iom kartsiqov sa shat aveli met mi paterazmi s@kizbn e

Yete aydpes e, uremn vijak@ shat sarsapeli klini Hayastani hamar.

[MosJan]

 

Georgia develops huge provocation against Russia

 

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev stated Sunday that Russia would begin to withdraw its troops from Georgia on August 18. Peacemakers and units of the 58^th army, which participated in the peace-enforcement operation after Georgia’s aggression in South Ossetia, will thus leave the territory of Georgia. The decision marked Moscow’s initiative in the implementation of the document originally signed by Dmitry Medvedev and French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

 

It seems that Georgia does not intend to abide by its obligations. Nothing has been reported about Georgia’s plans to pull out its troops from the conflict zone. Moreover, Russian defense officials said that Georgia was conducting subversive military activities in the Caucasus. To crown it all it was said that Georgia was developing a massive provocation against Russia in the town of Gori.

 

“An armed group consisting of Georgian and Ukrainian nationalists and Georgia-based Chechen terrorists is being urgently formed on the outskirts of Gori. They plan to make their way to Gori and wear Russian military informs to pillage and torment the local population,” an official of the Russian Defense Ministry said. He added that the information had been received through intelligence and radio intercept.

 

All the actions will be filmed on video tape and then presented to the world as “the proof of Russia’s military atrocities in Georgia.”

 

Russia ’s peacemaking headquarters informed the population of Gori of the imminent provocation.

 

“Russian peacemakers remain on their positions. None of them has entered Gori. We officially proclaim that the Georgian authorities will be wholly responsibly for the provocation in case it becomes impossible to avoid it,” a statement from the Russian Defense Ministry said.

 

Needless to say that Georgia’s Foreign Ministry rebutted the information.

 

It is worthy of note that Russia has already suppressed an act of sabotage on Georgia’s part. In addition, a group of people wearing Russian military uniforms was spotted in the area of Zugdidi.

 

Zaur Alborov, an independent military observer told Utro.ru that a group of Ukrainian and Baltic mercenaries had been formed in Kutaisi.

 

“They were seen wearing the uniform of the Russian army and wielding Russian weapons. Several people carrying photo and video equipment were seen with them too,” the observer said.

 

Russian military men found a map of Abkhazia’s invasion and other documents in a Georgian military unit.

 

 

 

“Georgian troops were supposed to conduct land and air attacks in the unrecognized republic of Abkhazia to enter its capital, Sukhumi. Other documents that we have testify to the fact that the information, which Georgia obtained with the help of unmanned aerial aircraft, was distributed among all commanders of Georgian units,” a Russian defense official said.

 

 

In the meantime, President of South Ossetia Eduard Kokoity signed a decree to dismiss the government of the unrecognized republic and declare a state of emergency in his nation. The S. Ossetian leader said that the new government was not going to appear in his country soon.

 

Kokoity also set up an emergency committee to restore the capital of Tskhinvali and its outskirts.

 

The S. Ossetian president criticized the members of the S. Ossetian government for inadequate execution of instructions in the distribution of the humanitarian aid in the republic.

 

“I am thoroughly dissatisfied with the work of the government, of practically all services,” Kokoity stated.

 

I want to set up the government without intrigues. I want to set up the government that will work and fully satisfy the needs of the people of South Ossetia. Officials must work for the people, but not use their position for their personal well-being,” the head of the unrecognized republic said.

 

Nearly 599 tons of humanitarian cargo had been delivered to Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia ruined as a result of Georgia’s aggression by August 16.

 

In the meantime, the exchange of prisoners of war between Georgia and Russia, which was supposed to take place Monday, has failed.

 

“In accordance with norms of international law, the exchange of prisoners between Georgia and Russia based on the principle ‘all to all’ was supposed to take place Monday at 12:00 p.m, “Andrei Bobrun, a senior defense official in the Northern Caucasus said.

 

Russia originally intended to deliver eleven prisoners to Georgia and subsequently added three other men on its list. Russia’s Defense Ministry hoped to receive five prisoners from Georgia in return. However, Georgia unexpectedly set forth defense and political requirements during the talks.

 

“Georgia’s requirements were in no way connected with the exchange of prisoner,” the official added.

 

Russia reportedly has about 200 Georgian prisoners of war. According to Bobrun, Russia is willing to exchange all the Georgians to Russian military men, who found themselves in Georgia’s captivity or citizens of South Ossetia, whom Georgian servicemen kidnapped during the military operation in Tskhinvali and other settlements of South Ossetia.

 

 

[MosJan]

 

Russia says Georgian govt., church blocking humanitarian aid

21:50 | 18/ 08/ 2008 http://img.rian.ru/i/b_print.gif MOSCOW, August 18 (RIA Novosti) - A senior Russian cabinet minister accused Georgia's leadership and Orthodox Church on Monday of preventing Russian peacekeepers from delivering aid to Georgian regions caught up in last week's conflict.

 

Emergencies minister Sergei Shoigu said: "Our work has unfortunately been frustrated by Georgian authorities, including the church."

 

He said 40 metric tons of humanitarian aid had been sent to Georgian towns and villages, including Gori, after the conflict between Russia and Georgia over breakaway South Ossetia. The Georgian Orthodox Church had previously mediated in aid deliveries.

 

Of the food aid sent to Georgia, Russian peacekeepers have only managed to deliver 4 tons to those in need of it, Shoigu said.

 

Georgia launched a major ground and air offensive to regain control of South Ossetia on August 8, prompting Russia to send tanks and troops to the region, and later into Georgia proper.

 

 

[MosJan]

 

War reveals Russia's military might and weakness

By VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV – 3 hours ago

 

MOSCOW (AP) — Russia's lightning war against Georgia looks like a military triumph: An armada of Russian tanks easily crushed Georgia's modest army in a show of muscle intended to punish its U.S.-allied neighbor, scare others and reaffirm Moscow's influence on its former Soviet turf.

 

But the conflict also revealed crucial weaknesses in Moscow's military preparedness — including faulty intelligence, a shortage of modern equipment and poor coordination.

 

The swift Russian victory presented a stark contrast to the war in Chechnya in the 1990s, where Russian troops were bogged down for years, suffering a string of humiliating losses at the hands of lightly armed rebels.

 

When Georgia launched an offensive Aug. 7 to regain control of the breakaway province of South Ossetia, Russia responded immediately, sending thousands of troops and hundreds of tanks through the mountain tunnel that cuts through Russia's border with South Ossetia.

 

At the same time, dozens of Russian warplanes ranged over Georgia, attacking military bases, airports, communications and transport facilities.

 

During the two wars in Chechnya, Moscow faced widespread criticism for leveling the capital of Grozny with carpet bombings and airstrikes. This time, the military says Russian aircraft used smart weapons to make precision attacks on equipment and installations.

 

On Monday, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev flew to Vladikavkaz, near the border with Georgia, and trumpeted the attack as he decorated 30 soldiers and servicemen.

 

"It has been only 10 days since you faced a cowardly aggression," he said, standing on a drill square in front of camouflage-clad soldiers and officers he called "heroes."

 

"I am sure that such a well-done, effective and peacemaking operation aimed at protecting our citizens and other people will be among the most glorious deeds of the Russian military," Medvedev said.

 

But while Russian airstrikes for the most part seemed to pinpoint their targets in Georgia, AP reporters also witnessed heavy bomb damage to civilian areas in at least two places — the central city of Gori, where several residential structures were hit, and Ruisi, a village ravaged by Russian warplanes.

 

Human Rights Watch said at least 11 civilians were killed and dozens wounded by cluster bombs in Gori and Ruisi, and strongly urged Russia to stop using the weapons. The Russian military denied using cluster bombs, which disperse small "bomblets" over a wide area.

 

Moscow-based aviation analyst Konstantin Makiyenko said the civilian casualties appeared inadvertent. "Even the U.S. military, which has a greater number of smart weapons, sometimes accidentally hits civilians," he said.

 

Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, said the war showed that the Russian air force is still short of precision weapons and continues to rely on older types of bombs and rockets.

 

Some civilian casualties could probably have been avoided if Russia's equivalent to the U.S. GPS satellite navigation system was fully working. But the GLONASS system doesn't yet have the necessary number of satellites in orbit and, more importantly, portable navigation devices are still a rarity in the Russian military, according to officials.

 

Georgia said it downed at least 21 Russian warplanes, while Russia confirmed the loss of just four aircraft, including three Su-25 ground attack jets and a Tu-22 long-range bomber.

 

The conflicting claims couldn't be resolved, but even the loss of four aircraft is a heavy toll given the small size of Georgia's military.

 

Russia's deputy chief of General Staff, Col. Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn, said the Georgians shot down the planes from hidden locations outside military facilities using Soviet-built Tor and Buk anti-aircraft missiles supplied by Ukraine. He said Russian pilots grew more cautious as the campaign continued.

 

While Russia would have to expect to lose some low-flying ground attack jets, former Russian air force chief Anatoly Kornukov said the loss of the heavy bomber — which the military said was on a reconnaissance mission — should have been avoided.

 

"They sent the Tu-22 crew to their deaths thinking that the Georgian air defense would mount no resistance," Kornukov told Interfax news agency.

 

Moscow-based independent military analyst Alexander Golts said that sending the heavy bomber on a reconnaissance mission over Georgia was a mistake.

 

"Using the Tu-22 for a reconnaissance mission over Georgia was the same as using a microscope to drive nails," he said.

 

Some Western experts believe that Russia spent months preparing for the invasion, and provoked the confrontation that led to Georgia's attack on the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali. They pointed to military exercises the Russian military conducted just across the border in July, the lingering presence of extra Russian troops in the region in August and the speed and efficiency of Moscow's response.

 

Russian military officials insist, however, that they were surprised by the attack and organized their response in a matter of hours.

 

Although the deployment was swift, it didn't always run smoothly.

 

As hundreds of battered Russian armored vehicles wound through the mountain passes toward Tskhinvali, an AP reporter saw a number of tanks broken down in the road, blocking traffic; or being repaired, with soldiers working underneath them with wrenches; or even being towed by other vehicles.

 

Numerous armored vehicles also broke down en route to Chechnya 14 years ago.

 

After a hasty march to Tskhinvali, a Russian general in charge of the entire Russian military force in the region recklessly drove into the city in an advance convoy and was ambushed by Georgian forces. He suffered a leg wound.

 

Russia said 74 soldiers died and more than 170 were wounded in fighting, but Georgian officials claimed Russian losses were much higher.

 

Georgian officials said they lost 160 soldiers and that 300 are missing. Russia said the figure is much higher.

 

The physical damage inflicted by the air war on Georgia's military and equipment is unclear. But there is no doubt of the political damage it caused.

 

The bombing campaign complicated Moscow's efforts to persuade the world that the motive behind its intervention was the protection of South Ossetian civilians.

 

Media coverage in the West has tended to paint Georgia as the victim in the conflict. The Georgian assault on South Ossetia has often been overlooked in reports that focused on the Russian attack.

 

While foreign political reaction has been divided — with the U.S. offering the harshest condemnation of Russia — most countries have at least criticized Russia's actions as disproportionate.

 

"The victorious Russia has found itself in complete isolation. That raises the question of whether it was a victory," Golts said.

 

Russia may also have made ousting Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili a key goal in its brief war. If so, it failed. After the fighting stopped, a pro-government rally in the Georgian capital drew tens of thousands of people.

 

"Georgia's military losses were higher than Russia's, but financial, political and moral losses of Russia were much higher than those of Georgia," Andrei Illarionov, former Kremlin adviser turned opposition activist, said in a commentary posted in the online Yezhednevny Zhurnal.

 

 

[ED]

esh esh bayts esqanel esh? cheye patkeratsnum iskapes es vracinerin, otsi pes 7 anqqam kashin poxumen.

 

what does he want? US and EU showed no interest of sending peacekeepers to the reagion, I suspect saakashvilli will be out before end of the year, like gamsakurdia he might vanish and found dead somewere.

 

and Godzila rice, did anybody heard the way she talks? "Russia Must get out" makes me wonder, she is really is still working for Chevron and dick the chaney, stupid women!!!!

 

the other protoge of soros was our own levon anter petrosyan, I'm somewhat glad Sarkisian is the president of Armenia

[Arpa]

Saakashvili nervously chewing his tie.

Show us a picture where Saakash chews his tutsie, tush

Edited August 19, 2008 by Arpa

[Nané]

Turkey, Iran: Ankara's Priorities Shift

 

18/08/2008 14:49 (13:33 minutes ago)

 

STRATFOR -- Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s two-day trip to Ankara ended Aug. 15. While the Iranian government and state media have touted his trip as proof that Iran and Turkey are close allies, the Turkish government is far more concerned with containing the current situation in the Caucasus, which could have major implications for Turkey’s ally Azerbaijan. Read STARTFOR analysis.

 

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad wrapped up a two-day trip to Ankara on Aug. 15. The Iranian government and state media have been hyping Ahmadinejad’s visit to Turkey for days in an attempt to showcase to the world the Iranian belief that Iran and Turkey, as the two principle non-Arab regional powerhouses, are close and natural allies.

 

But while Iran is eager to forge closer ties with Turkey, the Turks do not have much time for Ahmadinejad right now. Ankara has bigger things on its mind, namely the Russians.

 

Turkey is heir to the Ottoman Empire, which once extended deep into the southern Caucasus region where Russia just wrapped up an aggressive military campaign against Georgia. Turkey’s geopolitical interests in the Caucasus have primarily been defensive in nature, focused on keeping the Russians and Persians at bay. Now that Russia is resurging in the Caucasus, the Turks have no choice but to get involved.

 

 

The Turks primarily rely on their deep ethnic, historical and linguistic ties to Azerbaijan to extend their influence into the Caucasus. Azerbaijan was alarmed, to say the least, when it saw Russian tanks crossing into Georgia. As far as Azerbaijan was concerned, Baku could have been the next target in Russia’s military campaign.

 

However, Armenia — Azerbaijan’s primary rival — remembers well the 1915 Armenian genocide by the Turks, and looks to Iran and especially Orthodox Christian Russia for its protection. Now that Russia has shown it is willing to act on behalf of allies like South Ossetia and Abkhazia in the Caucasus, the Armenians, while militarily outmatched by the Azerbaijanis, are now feeling bolder and could see this as their chance to preempt Azerbaijan in yet another battle for the disputed Nagorno-Artsax region— especially if it thinks it can look to Russia to militarily intervene on its behalf.

 

The Turks and their ethnic kin in Azerbaijan are extremely wary of Russia’s intentions for the southern Caucasus beyond Georgia. Sources told Stratfor that Azerbaijan has learned that the Russian military jets that bombed Gori and Poti were based out of Armenia (?????) . This development not only signaled a significant expansion of Russia’s military presence in the southern Caucasus, but it also implied that Armenia had actually signed off on the Russian foray into Georgia, knowing that Russian dominance over Georgia would guarantee Armenian security and impose a geographic split between Turkey and Azerbaijan. If the Armenians became overly confident and made a move against Azerbaijan for Nagorno-Artsax, expecting Russian support, the resulting war would have a high potential of drawing the Turks into a confrontation with the Russians — something that both NATO member Turkey and Russia have every interest in avoiding.

 

The Turks also have a precarious economic relationship with Russia. The two countries have expanded their trade with each other significantly in recent years. In the first half of 2008, trade between Russia and Turkey amounted to $19.9 billion, making Russia Turkey’s biggest trading partner. Much of this trade is concentrated in the energy sphere. The Turks currently import approximately 64 percent of the natural gas they consume from the Russians. Though Turkey’s geographic position enables it to pursue energy links in the Middle East and the Caucasus that can bypass Russian territory, the Russians have made it abundantly clear over the past few days that the region’s energy security will still depend on MOSCOW ’s good graces.

 

Turkey’s economic standing also largely depends on its ability to act as a major energy transit hub for the West through pipelines such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which was recently forced offline due to a purported Kurdish militant attack and the war in Georgia. Turkey simply cannot afford to see the Russians continue their surge into the Caucasus and threaten its energy supply.

 

For these reasons, Turkey is on a mission to keep this tinderbox in the Caucasus contained. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan spent the last couple of days meeting with top Russian leaders in MOSCOW and then with the Georgian president in Tbilisi . During his meetings with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, President Dmitri Medvedev and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Erdogan pushed the idea of creating a Caucasus union that would include both Russia and Georgia. Though this organization would likely be little more than a talk shop, it is a sign of Turkey’s interest in reaching a mutual understanding with Russia that would allow both sides to maintain a comfortable level of influence in the region without coming to blows.

 

The Iranians, meanwhile, are sitting in the backseat. Though Iran has a foothold in the Caucasus through its support for Armenia, the Iranians lack the level of political, military and economic gravitas that Turkey and Russia currently hold in this region. Indeed, Erdogan did not even include Iran in his list of proposed members for the Caucasus union, even though Iran is one of the three major powers bordering the region. The Turks also struck a blow to Iran by holding back from giving Ahmadinejad the satisfaction of sealing a key energy agreement for Iran to provide Turkey with natural gas, preferring instead to preserve its close relationship with the United States and Israel. Turkey simply is not compelled to give Iran the attention that it is seeking at the moment.

 

The one thing that Turkey can look to Iran for, however, is keeping the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict under control. Iran’s support for Armenia has naturally put Tehran on a collision course with Ankara when dealing with the Caucasus in the past. But when faced with a common threat of a resurgent Russia, both Turkey and Iran can agree to disagree on their conflicting interests in this region and use their leverage to keep Armenia or Azerbaijan from firing off a shot and pulling the surrounding powers into a broader conflict. In light of the recent BTC explosion claimed by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Turkey can also look to Iran to play its part in cracking down on PKK rebels in the region, many of whom have spent the past year fleeing a Turkish crackdown in northern Iraq by traversing through Iran to reach the southern Caucasus.

 

While Iran and Turkey can cooperate in fending off the Russians, it will primarily be up to Turkey to fight the battle in the Caucasus. Russia has thus far responded positively to Turkey’s diplomatic engagements, but in a region with so many conflicting interests, the situation could change in a heartbeat.

 

Reprinted with permissions of STRATFOR.

 

Strategic Forecasting, Inc., Stratfor, is a private intelligence agency founded in 1996 in Austin, Texas. George Friedman is the founder, chief intelligence officer, and CEO of the company.

 

 

 

[Nané]

Day.Az interview with famous political scientist Eldar Jahangirov.

 

- Was Russia's military aggression against Georgia a surprise for you?

 

- I was not so much surprised at the very fact of aggression, as everything could be expected from the working leadership of Russia, intoxicated with oil revenues, maximally high stabilization fund and Russia's growing role in the world, especially considering the Putin's personal antipathy to Saakashvili.

 

I was astonished at the open cynicism, one-sidedness and unprofessionalism of Russian mass media. I am far from the romantic assessment of political events and it is obvious to me that there are conflict parties in any conflict. Each party has its own motives for actions. Revealing and even biased coverage of this motive is one of the functions of the mass media, while in Russia we have become witnesses of the merely insulting fooling of the audience.

 

All means were used here, including open subject falsifications, role interviews, physiognomists, who diagnosed Saakashvili by his mimics... and it occurred on the first rate channels with participation of serious journalists and analysts, as they had previously seemed to be.

 

Thus, I was astonished with the Russian agitation campaign, which turned first rate mass media into hysterical battle lists of Goebbels times

 

- How far can the Kremlin go in its aggressive policy?

 

- Under pretense of doubtful arguments about Russian passports and offended "peacekeeping forces", Russia has invaded the territory of a sovereign country by the help of its regular troops. Isn't it the farthest end? If there is something more, it will be necessary to throw away the whole structure of international law and live by the principle "the strongest wins".

 

- How can the world society stop Russia, considering the fact that the Kremlin does not care about its opinion in the Georgia's issue?

 

- The recent events and statements of world leaders state that the process of stopping has been launched.

 

Everything that is going on in Russia and in the Caucasus region has recently been under microscope and today it is possible to say that pressure started on all possible fronts including political, information, diplomatic and financial ones.

 

For example, Russia has been temporarily excluded from the G-8 format-the member-states did not invite the Russian representative to their session. Protests in front of the Russian embassies are held in most world capital cities. The diplomatic rhetorics and terminology has changed towards Russia and its leadership.

 

World mass medias, by Saakashvili's hint, recalled the forgotten case of Litvinenko, accusations of poisoning Ukrainian President Yuschenko. The urges to minimize West's energy dependence on Russia became more frequent and tougher. As is known, two US congressmen introduced to the house of representatives a draft resolution, calling on the International Olympic Committee to deprive Sochi of the right to hold winter Olympic Games. Moreover, in several days, from August 9 until August 13, the outflow of funds, invested into Russia, made $239,000,000. This occurred within just several days and everything proves that the volumes of outflow will be even higher soon. Thus, the process has been launched, with less left-to reveal the signs of adequacy of the working leadership of Russia.

 

- What can be the consequences of Russia's consolidation for Azerbaijan?

 

- Our interests have rarely coincided with those of Russia historically. We are in direct stiff competition on many issues, especially on energy issues. Nevertheless, our countries are geographically doomed to neighboring. Civilian economic and cultural consolidation of Russian on transparent and predictable rules does not pose any threat to us. The threat is posed by the growing militarism and loss of feeling of political reality among young Kremlin leaders. For Azerbaijan it is a threat of transferring to a narrow corridor of pro-western orientation, loss of resources for opposing Russia and additional obstacles in restoration of our territorial integrity.

 

- Is it possible to say that Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili has strengthened Armenia's position in Nagorno Artsax issue, in fact betraying Azerbaijan, though indirectly?

 

- I think nothing is too unambiguous in this issue. On the one hand, Russia has asymmetrically prevented Georgia's attempt to restore its territorial integrity. During private talks and by means of propaganda, Armenians will undoubtedly refer to this precedent. But, on the other hand, Russia has not yet issued its passports in Khankendi and Shusha residents. There are no offended peacekeepers in Nagorno Artsax. Only the CSTO may serve as a ground, but considering the concentration of world interests in the region, it is a real step to a more global opposition. These events have attracted world attention to our region and experts started to draw parallels between the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno Artsax. The recent events showed that people's patience is not limitless and it is impossible to ignore international law all the time.

 

- Which steps should official Baku take to prevent possible repetition of Georgia's script in Azerbaijan's case?

 

- Though Azerbaijan has consistently supported Georgia in combat with separatism, the possibility of execution of Georgian script towards us is absent. We have taken the only right position in this conflict. Our position has been dictated by national interests and is absolutely consistent. We have supported Russia in the issue of the constitutional order in Chechnya. We have supported Russia in the Kosovo issue. It is only left to hope for the adequate steps of the opposite side.

 

/Day.Az/

 

 

 

 

[MosJan]

one word that hurts me the most is separatism

 

so if CCCP has decided that abxazya was to be part of Georgia, or Stalin has gave a way Artsax and Javaxq to others - now this MOFO's are entitled to this property and we the people who have been in this place for more then vratsy or azeri , we are separatists ??

 

 

so it's OK to kill and drive people away - but it's not ok to voice your opinion regarding your homeland

 

CCCP has create this bazzar of osetya abxazya artsax and javaxq it's working for today's russia, eventough we are free , we still are in russian hands directly or indirectly

 

if russia wishes to solve this bazzar he can start recognising osetya, abxazya artsax naxijevan and help to return to it's rightful owners

way didn't it recognize the osetya wan CCCP was splinting up ??