Expectations Of Renewed Fight Between Armenia And Azerbaijan Rising

[abass80]

Stratfor: expectations of renewed fight between Armenia and Azerbaijan rising

04.07.2007 15:21 GMT+04:00

 

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Expectations of a renewed fight between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno Karabakh region are rising, since Azerbaijan has started using the huge windfall of cash from its new pipeline to quintuple its defense budget. This time, the conflict could serve as a spark for the larger struggle between the United States and Russia, said the experts of Stratfor intelligence center.

 

The conflict between Armenia and its neighbor Azerbaijan over the disputed Nagorno Karabakh region has crescendoed in recent months, since Azerbaijan has started seeing the enormous cash windfall from its new pipeline and Armenia has scrambled to secure a protective Russian presence within its borders. But the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia is about more than the two states and their disputed territory; the United States and Russia are using that conflict as a foothold to strengthen their positions in the region as they try to expel each other, the experts say.

 

Armenia and Azerbaijan have long been deadlocked over the small sliver of land between the two states, though the conflict has been relatively dormant since the 1994 cease-fire. Technically, Nagorno-Karabakh is within Azeri territory, though it is controlled by Armenia. International pressure, lack of support from every nation but Russia and Iran, and fear of Azeri retaliation have kept Armenia from annexing the territory. Azerbaijan has been held back from retaking the land due to international pressure and the Azeri military’s relative weakness. Russia has maintained a shaky and controversial balance by supporting both sides.

 

However, Azerbaijan began to see the possibility of change in 2006 with the completion of its Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, which Western companies developed to feed oil to Europe. Azerbaijan not only became increasingly pro-Western, but it also saw tremendous new income. Azerbaijan’s president has already decided how he wants to spend his country’s newfound wealth: on defense. In 2004, Azerbaijan’s defense spending was approximately $175 million, but by the beginning of 2008, the country will begin spending at least $1 billion on defense. Armenia recently increased its defense spending by 20 percent -- from $125 million to $150 million, which obviously pales in comparison to Azerbaijan’s increase. Azerbaijan’s spending will go mostly toward air offensive capabilities, with Armenia’s going to air defense, though both now are looking to expand their ground capabilities.

 

Armenia simply lacks the influx of energy income that Azerbaijan has. The enormous Armenian diaspora inside the United States has ensured that Armenia is one of the largest recipients of U.S. foreign aid, but Armenia’s neighbors -- Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey -- have shunned it economically and politically, leaving it with little opportunity for trade or expansion. The one neighbor Armenia has an open relationship with is Iran. In March, Iran and Armenia opened the Iran-Armenia natural gas pipeline; Iran ships natural gas north and Armenia converts the natural gas to electricity to export back south to Iran. The pipeline itself is owned by Russia, as is much of Armenia’s energy infrastructure, the experts note, www.stratfor.com reports.

[Dave]

Այս անգամ մինչեւ Կասպից ծով կը ղրկենք Ազերի Թուրքին եթէ այդպէս կ՛ուզէ:

[AVO]

Հուսանք լողանալ գիտեն, լողանան դեպի Մոնգոլիա

[Lev7]

lav, ekek beraneris lopaz chi bacenk, es 90 tvakaneri chen, chi gites arten inch klini ete krivi sksi Edited July 7, 2007 by Lev7

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lav, ekek beraneris lopaz chi bacenk, es 90 tvakaneri chen, chi gites arten inch klini ete krivi sksi

Hamadsayn em,

 

mi qich realista petq linel. Hasarak hashvarka Hayastani razmakan byujen $150 Milliona isk Azerinerin@ $1 Billion. Verjin 15 tarva @ntacqum el bavakanin marzvecin u zinvecin. Haykakan banaki texnikan chi modernizacvel isk yete nuynisk modernizacrel en apa shat qich qanakutyamb yev shat dandagh temperov.

 

My husadrogh hangamanq ka miayn vor teghanq@ lernayin e yev nman paymannerum razmakan texnikan (tanker, ughatirner yev ayln) aynqan el effective che. Ayn apacucvel e Chechnyai, Aghvanstani orinakov. Tekuz henc Arcaxi orinakov. Partizankan poqr jokatnerov aveli mec vnas kareli e hascnel tshnamun yev nuyn poqr jokatov yev teghanqi lav imacutyamb kareli e kanxel laynacaval tshnamu hardsakumner@ inchpes zhamanakin 300 spartaciner@ arecin mek milionic avel parskakan banaki het.

 

Sakayn mievnuyn e yerbeq petq che teragnahatel hakarakordin.

[AVO]

Mer uje nranum er vor menk pashtpanum eyink mer hoghere. Paterazme verchatcav vorovhete yete sharunakeyink arten menk kdarnayink agressore. Mi ban el em avelatcnem, Artsaxi u Aderbejani sahmane ashxari amena shat land mine parunakox sahmaneritc mekna. Yete Adrbejane harcakvi votov kam texnikayov shat korustner en unenalu.

[Aaron]

Asdvads chani, yete griv versgsi, heshd baderazm chilinelu. yergu goghmern el irens goyutyan hamar en grvelu. An armenian defeat would not only mean the loss of artsakh but certainly that of Syunik as well, on the other hand, an Azeri defeat may result in the disintegration of Azerbaijan.

 

But the issue is not in that ... the issue is that we may have no choice at all but to fight, the alternative being even worse than defeat ... massacres, and ethnic cleansing. All of this has probably been analyzed and thought over and over by our military leaders. Let's trust them.

 

A.

Edited July 11, 2007 by Aaron

[SevanAcher]

I don’t want to underestimate our opponent’s capabilities, but I don’t think our Diaspora will simply sit back and watch the game unravel. It would be foolish on Azeri’s part to overlook that detail.