Siamanto Posted December 30, 2004 Report Share Posted December 30, 2004 You keep saying well-being. That means to be well off. Cash flow is crucial here and GDP per capita is one of the the primary criterions. I would give priority to GDP over the education index if I had to define the "well-being". "Development" is different however. When finding the development index GDP and education could be viewed as equal. style_images/master/snapback.png I have used the expression "well being" in only one post! In any case, AT NO TIME, I have compared Armenia's well being, I have only compared Armenia with its neighbors based on well defined indexes/indicators. Please, let's not read more than what it's said. Read the lines, not between the lines! Thank you! I was simply reminding you that: "A country's well being - or anything of importance - is not - and should not be - solely based on a SINGLE criterion whatever that is. Basing an assessment on multiple criteria is similar to hedging in risk management!" You were putting too much emphasis on GDP or "current income." I would give priority to GDP over the education index if I had to define the "well-being". style_images/master/snapback.png Off topic! I did not compare the well being! Anyway, what would be a good model of "well being?" What would be be the indicators/parameters? "Development" is different however. When finding the development index GDP and education could be viewed as equal. style_images/master/snapback.png GDP, education among others aspects! The Human Development Index is well documented and available to the public! I will have to go with well known indexes: it's safer! That just means that humans in Armenia are more developed than in Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan, with education being the primary contributor to Armenia's lead in HDI. style_images/master/snapback.png Would you care to tell us the weight of education - and other components - in the HDI? Thank you! You seem to make statements based on your understanding and opinions. Can you please show the numbers and how the final rank is computed? Thanks! It is simple. If your people are well educated and have high Human Development Index they leave the country if you don't create enough jobs (increase the GDP). And the article is correct in that sense. style_images/master/snapback.png Yes! But, again, you're not answering the question! The question was: How did you conclude FROM THE DATA PRESENTED IN THE Human Development Index report that That just means that Armenia exports good human capital, which is very bad. style_images/master/snapback.png The shocking thing about the article is not that it doesn't have truth in it. It is the level of hostility of the author (her BS-ed sources, general ignorance) that makes me personally question her motives. Also, not being a specialist on Caucasus she tried to portray her material as if it was a result of a deep analysis and not just random selective interviews. style_images/master/snapback.png You finally see what we were trying to prove! Congratulations!! That's just an estimate (notice est. in the end). style_images/master/snapback.png I believe that the growth estimates are on track and the GDP estimates should be quite accurate. Corrections should be minimal and would have little - or no - impact on the rank, be it positive or negative! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siamanto Posted December 30, 2004 Report Share Posted December 30, 2004 Siamanto, fair arguement on your part. OK, current GDP is not what I meant for potentialities. But the GDP difference between Armenia and Azerbaijan is really small. style_images/master/snapback.png Yes, the difference is less than small! Please keep in mind that our goal - in this thread - was to show that the article above is biased and is pro-Jurkish propaganda! On the other hand, Azeris have oil that they only need to sell without any hard work. Of course, there is the pipeline issue hampering the sale of oin on their terms, but even then that is a potentiality that can be cashed today (or is it called selling short? I am not sure if this term is correct). style_images/master/snapback.png Not this again!!! First of all, the Azeri proven Oil Reserves are negligible: as much as Italy, HALF of Romania, less than Thailand etc. IT REPRESENTS 0.0005% of World Oil reserves!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! World Oil Reserves Second of all, that may be a poisoned gift! A diversified economy is far more stable and preferable. Third of all, all the pipeline/political issues! Most of all, I'm tired of discussing this! That aside, what I mean by other standards is unemployment rate, social inequality (I am not sure if there is an appropriate index for this), outmigration rate, percentage of people living under the poverty line, overall economy outlook which is negatively affected by lack of substantical natural resources and dual blockades, telecom monopoly, etc.. I will try to find indicators or other numbers as much as I can. I would appreciate if Armen could do that as I am too lazy But once I have the data I could analyze and report style_images/master/snapback.png More than once, I have said that we have still a lot to achieve! When there's a problem, you assess it and solve it! For instance, yesterday Azat had to deal with an urgent "disaster." He did not panic, complain and...he simply did what's needed to be done! Period! Another concern would be the gap between the rich and the poor. Anyway, without comparative data, it would hard to assess. At least we have gotten to a point to itemize the existing problems in Armenia after which hopefully some of these can be addressed and solved. What makes me upset though is the seeing things as "glass half-empty" phenomenon amongst many Armenians both in and outside of Armenia (is this is sign of national depression?). Some of the issues such as the 50% poverty, outmigration etc are easily solved specially with a small population such as in Armenia with such a small reproduction rate. I am not going to enlist how - most of you know, job creation, investment etc. The lack of substantical natural resources never stopped the Japanese becoming the second economy in the world, perhaps it was their positive outlook on the future and innovative developmental solutions, I don't know. And in the mean time, countries like Iran, Nigeria which have oil have not necessarily gotten anywhere (please don't bring up "blaming everything on US" position either with Iran). And finally, the blockade. Again, Turks are never going to let Armenia prosper if it was up to them with or without that blockade. Good thread though, thanks for all the good comments, guys, this is just my outlook on things, one positive thinking Armenian here Shnorhavor Nor Tari! style_images/master/snapback.png That's a more positive and a "healthier" view and approach! I agree! Shnorvahor Nor Dari! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armen Posted December 30, 2004 Report Share Posted December 30, 2004 I would appreciate if Armen could do that as I am too lazy style_images/master/snapback.png Nothing is impossible Susun jan. That will be 50$ per hour. I accept checks and money orders Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armat Posted December 30, 2004 Report Share Posted December 30, 2004 Stratfor.com Armenia: The Crush of Global Pressures December 28, 2004 1815 GMT style_images/master/snapback.png Thanks Armen ,sometimes we need a wake up call to act correctly.Objective reasoning is what we need.Yes it feels like our history is repeating again.Our best way out is to join EU. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joseph parikian Posted December 30, 2004 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2004 (edited) Does any one have the number of turks that left turkey since 1922 If Europeans alow turkey to join them i bet you more than half the population will move to europe ====================================================== From Cnn com http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2004/WORLD/europe/12/16/eu.turkey.gaddafi.reut/story.gadhafi.jpg Gadhafi warns Turkey threatens EU Friday, December 17, 2004 Posted: 3:51 AM EST (0851 GMT) Gadhafi: EU entry is militants' "Trojan horse." SPECIAL REPORT ROME, Italy (Reuters) -- Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi has said it would be dangerous for the European Union to admit Turkey as a member state, calling the accession bid a "Trojan horse" for Islamic militants like Osama bin Laden. "As far as the Islamic world is concerned -- including the Islamic extremists, even bin Laden -- they're rejoicing over the entry of Turkey in the European Union. This is their Trojan horse," he was quoted as saying by the Italian media. "I'm saying only what will happen with the entry of the horse into Troy," he added in comments published on the day EU leaders met in Brussels to discuss whether to begin accession talks with the secular but overwhelmingly Muslim Turkey. Gadhafi made his comments in an interview with RAI television, which is due to be aired on Friday. A transcript was printed on Thursday in Italy's La Repubblica daily. The Libyan leader said that he did not care whether Turkey was admitted, explaining that he was "only saying what will be the consequences." In a broad interview, also covering subjects from Afghanistan to the Arab-Israeli conflict, Gadhafi said he hoped to begin joint work with EU leaders soon on the issue of combating illegal immigration. He said he would invite "interested" European heads of state for a summit in Tripoli, as his country ends decades of isolation. "The date is not yet established, but we are working seriously," he said. Libya pledged to abandon its nuclear, chemical and biological weapons programs last year, prompting the United States to agree to lift its trade embargo earlier this year. The United States has not, however, dropped Libya from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism, which bars Tripoli from receiving U.S. arms exports, controls sales to Libya of items with military and civilian uses and limits U.S. aid. Gadhafi complained that Libya had still been poorly compensated for abandoning the weapons programs, and appeared to request assistance from the international community in setting up a civilian nuclear power program. "Their reaction has been good, in terms of words, but there's been nothing concrete," Gadhafi said. When asked what kind of compensation he was looking for Gadhafi said: "Transforming atomic (programs) to civilian use, after we decided to abandon military (program)." He did not necessarily see new hope for the Middle East peace process following the death of Yasser Arafat, who Gadhafi called by his nom de guerre, Abu Ammar. "I know the Americans and the Israelis said that Abu Ammar was the problem when he was alive. Ammar is dead. Will peace be realized?" Gadhafi asked. "No. I turn the question to those who said the problem was Abu Ammar. Now the ball is in their court. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/europe/12/16...y.gaddafi.reut/ Edited December 30, 2004 by joseph parikian Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sasun Posted December 30, 2004 Report Share Posted December 30, 2004 Yes, the difference is less than small! Please keep in mind that our goal - in this thread - was to show that the article above is biased and is pro-Jurkish propaganda! Well, I was not arguing otherwise. I know the article is biased against us, though not necessarily for Turkey's sake. So we don't have a disagreement on the article. All I want is for us to get a realistic look and neither underestimate nor overestimate Armenia's place. Not this again!!! First of all, the Azeri proven Oil Reserves are negligible: as much as Italy, HALF of Romania, less than Thailand etc. IT REPRESENTS 0.0005% of World Oil reserves!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! World Oil Reserves I have nor argument with the nubmers, but apparently that amount of oil is not too negligible for the West to build pipelines. I would prefer that Armenia had half of that amount of oil anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sasun Posted December 30, 2004 Report Share Posted December 30, 2004 (edited) The dawning problem is one that Armenian President Robert Kocharian has foreseen. In October 1999 there was a paramilitary attack against the Armenian Parliament that resulted in the deaths of several members of the country's mostly pro-Russian political faction; Russia took advantage of the situation to send special forces troops in and cement its political influence in the small country. The attack and Moscow's reaction to it shook Kocharian's view of the Russians as a dependable ally. After all, if the Russians could not prevent its most ardent supporters from harm, and would take advantage of Armenian instability to strengthen its grip, was Russian protection really worth it? This analysis, although logical, doesn't seem right. I think that Russia's continuous weakening is one of the reasons for Armenia's change in foreign policy. And the other reason is Kocharian's foreign policiy doctrine of balancing between powers which was set when he came to power, not after parliament shootings happened. Winds of change are blowing in Armenia. Russia is more strategically distant than ever, and the West's strategy of triggering soft revolutions a la Georgia and Ukraine has proven reliable. Armenia's next presidential elections are in 2006. Winds of change are blowing in Armenia; it is not clear whether Armenia will survive them. style_images/master/snapback.png What is meant by this? Armenia may not survive? Survive in what sense, it may disappear? That's not apparent at all. Or power may change? Quite possibly, at least Kocharian has not announced of plans to extend his presidency. But what does it have to do with survival? Rose revolution may not even be necessary, if Russia indeed becomes so weak then Kocharian would willingly go for a more pro Western orientation. And besides, Armenians are more mature than that to go for a rose revolution. Georgia was too weak, and Ukraine was not really a rose revolution, rather a country split which made it possible for the West to manipulate. Anyway, let's hope the gloomy outlook will not realize for Armenia. Edited December 30, 2004 by Sasun Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harut Posted December 30, 2004 Report Share Posted December 30, 2004 ... and the next presidential election is in 2008, not 2006. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sasun Posted December 30, 2004 Report Share Posted December 30, 2004 (edited) ... and the next presidential election is in 2008, not 2006. style_images/master/snapback.png Good point Harut. Armen, I hope you are not paying $799 a year for the subscription of this journal. Edited December 30, 2004 by Sasun Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sasun Posted December 30, 2004 Report Share Posted December 30, 2004 Oh, and one more point which further shows the superficial understanding in the article. Moreover, for Armenia to truly make a go at Westernizing, it would have to bury the hatchet with Turkey and Azerbaijan, which would mean, at a minimum, withdrawing the bulk of its forces -- volunteers -- from internationally-recognized Azerbaijani territory. In addition to that being a non-starter at home, it would enrage the Armenian diaspora, endangering the one international advantage that Armenia enjoys; the diaspora's economic support is the only thing that keeps the Armenian economy in its pseudo-functional shape. Assuming we would have to withdraw and all that (not necessary in my opinion for a pro Western Armenia - example, perpetual foes Turkey and Greece part of the same military pact yet at times almost at war). The author does not understand why Diaspora is supporting Armenia. There is no conflict of interest between ARmenia and Diaspora, only a minor disagreement over the Genocide recognition issue but there is a overall a very good understanding of the practical needs and maneurability of Armenia. Nonetheless, whatever is in the interests of Armenia will be supported by the Diaspora. It will never happen that Armenia withdraws troops from around Artsax and diaspora gets angry and abandons Armenia. That would not make sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harut Posted December 30, 2004 Report Share Posted December 30, 2004 volunteer forces? today? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harut Posted December 30, 2004 Report Share Posted December 30, 2004 (edited) first and foremost, one needs to be pro-armenia, then pro-west, pro-russia, etc... and even than, those not as orientations, but merely tools for achieving the goals of the first... Edited December 30, 2004 by Harut Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armen Posted December 30, 2004 Report Share Posted December 30, 2004 Good point Harut. Armen, I hope you are not paying $799 a year for the subscription of this journal. style_images/master/snapback.png Sasun, it's from Groong. Stratfor.com is always very superficial in its analysis. But doesn't it ring a bell that first ISG predicted a hard year for Armenia (I posted that in Armenia thread), than these NY Times articles and now this ... Noone takes Stratfor seriously but Armenia is going to be pressured politically this year and Stratfor is right about that. The Ukrainian events come to mind. And the pressure is going to be on different levels starting from me and you reading the NY Times articles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sasun Posted December 30, 2004 Report Share Posted December 30, 2004 Sasun, it's from Groong. Stratfor.com is always very superficial in its analysis. But doesn't it ring a bell that first ISG predicted a hard year for Armenia (I posted that in Armenia thread), than these NY Times articles and now this ... Noone takes Stratfor seriously but Armenia is going to be pressured politically this year and Stratfor is right about that. The Ukrainian events come to mind. And the pressure is going to be on different levels starting from me and you reading the NY Times articles. style_images/master/snapback.png That is true Armen, certain pressure is accumulating definitely. Another indicator of that is that Oskanian has started to talk about a phased solution, which makes one wonder why we didn't agree to the phased solution of Ter-Petrosian. Perhaps this one is better than the previous one, that we should come to see later. On the other hand, this pressure maybe temprary, in which case it would suffice for Armenia to maneuver a bit, to give promisses and postpone any real withdrawal till the pressure is gone, then forget about the phase solution like the Azeris forgot about the Key West agreement. In that sense time is in our favor, as the years pass we become more entrenched in Artsakh and the surrounding lands, and the Azeris become more psychologically accepting their loss. But the bottom line is, just because there is a pressure we don't have to give in. Even with the huge constraints creative thinking may result in solutions to bypass the pressures or minimize them. I trust Oskanian to come up with something better than significant concessions. Perhaps keeping our lands may come at the cost of extended periods of economic mediocrity and poverty, even then I think it is worth because land is more valuable than temporary wellbeing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armen Posted December 30, 2004 Report Share Posted December 30, 2004 That is true Armen, certain pressure is accumulating definitely. Another indicator of that is that Oskanian has started to talk about a phased solution, which makes one wonder why we didn't agree to the phased solution of Ter-Petrosian. Perhaps this one is better than the previous one, that we should come to see later. On the other hand, this pressure maybe temprary, in which case it would suffice for Armenia to maneuver a bit, to give promisses and postpone any real withdrawal till the pressure is gone, then forget about the phase solution like the Azeris forgot about the Key West agreement. In that sense time is in our favor, as the years pass we become more entrenched in Artsakh and the surrounding lands, and the Azeris become more psychologically accepting their loss. But the bottom line is, just because there is a pressure we don't have to give in. Even with the huge constraints creative thinking may result in solutions to bypass the pressures or minimize them. I trust Oskanian to come up with something better than significant concessions. Perhaps keeping our lands may come at the cost of extended periods of economic mediocrity and poverty, even then I think it is worth because land is more valuable than temporary wellbeing. style_images/master/snapback.png Susun, don't you think the pressure is more about Armenia's willingness to change its overall political oreintation (liek Ukraine did), rather than concessions on Karabagh. I don't think Europe in particular would like to give Karabagh to Azerbaijan. Also, I think the U.S. has very different agenda for Azerbaijan with regard to whole Iranian thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sasun Posted January 3, 2005 Report Share Posted January 3, 2005 Susun, don't you think the pressure is more about Armenia's willingness to change its overall political oreintation (liek Ukraine did), rather than concessions on Karabagh. I don't think Europe in particular would like to give Karabagh to Azerbaijan. I would like to think that way. Indeed why would Europe want Artsax to belong to Azerbaijan and not to Armenians? I see not reason for such a preference, or the opposite preference. I think Europe and the US are largely interested in keeping the status quo. That will create less trouble for them. On the other hand if Oskanian is starting to talk about a phased agreement which is clearly not beneficial for us, then I am left to believe that there is a pressure on Armenia to make certain concessions. The only thing that I can think of is that the external powers (not sure if that includes Russia) would like to see a permanent settlement of the conflict, and since it is not possible without concessions from both sides they are pressure both sides to move forward and do something. So what do you think Armen? Also, I think the U.S. has very different agenda for Azerbaijan with regard to whole Iranian thing. style_images/master/snapback.png Can you elaborate what you mean? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kakachik77 Posted January 12, 2005 Report Share Posted January 12, 2005 this is from Groong, excellent commentary on recent articles STEREOTYPES ABOUT ARMENIA Armenian News Network / Groong January 11, 2005 By Haroutiun Khachatrian During the last five months, at least four articles appeared in leading Western newspapers about Armenia. As if agreed initially, all four are about the emigration problem. The general scheme of all articles is as follows: (see, for example the latest article of this "series" entitled "For Young Armenians, a Promised Land Without Promise" in the December 9 issue of The New York Times). People are quoted as saying that in Armenia jobs are difficult to find, or they are paid less than similar jobs abroad. Statements of the opposite type are also included, e.g. young people are quoted as saying that they will try to find jobs in their homeland, etc. However, the general tone remains negative, the titles are as sad as this one (giving a respective signal to the readers, most of whom do not read more of an article than its title). And, what is more important, the data of statistics showing the migration of Armenian workforce is no more a problem like it was in the 90s, that emigration and immigration have already balanced, are generally ignored. Some observers in Armenia express the opinion that there is a sort of "conspiracy" or "political order" aimed to display reality in Armenia worse than it is (even Haykakan Zhamanak, an opposition-minded daily, has used these terms). I believe that, in fact, some long-established stereotypes are to be blamed, according to which Armenia cannot be described in a way other than a week and dependent country. As shown below, even the works of serious political analysts are not free of these stereotypes. I take two recent materials that appeared on the www.eurasianet.org internet edition as typical examples of such an attitude, although many others of this type can be shown. They are: "Armenia: the Dream of Complementarity and the Reality of Dependency" by Michael Weinstein, and the report of the International Crisis Group entitled "Armenia: Internal Instability Ahead.". STEREOTYPE ONE. ARMENIA TOTALLY DEPENDS ON RUSSIA Weinstein writes: "Armenia's primary dependence on Russia is difficult to deny. Militarily, Russia has 2,500 troops in the country... Russia is also Armenia's major trading partner, its largest source of investment, the main destination of its surplus labor, the provider of its energy needs and military equipment and its biggest creditor..." There are several errors in these fragments (I'll show some of them below), but even their absence would not change the main question: even if all of this were correct, would it mean a pessimistic conclusion for Armenia? Yes, Russia has been the largest source of investments in Armenia in the last two years (replacing Greece), but does it mean increasing Armenia's dependency upon Russia? Quite the opposite. Nor is the presence of the Russian troops in Armenia a sign of unilateral dependency, as Russia is no less interested in having these troops in its main partner country in the Caucasus. True, Armenia depends heavily on fuel supply from Russia. But Germany does as well. To a lesser extent, but Germany is a richer country. Moreover, many analysts, including Weinstein, fail to see that this dependency will most likely decrease. He writes: "In May, 2004, Kocharian visited Moscow for talks about Russia's displeasure with Yerevan's initiatives. Moscow wants [Yerevan's] assurance that the Iranian pipeline will not be extended through Georgia and under the Black Sea to Ukraine, bypassing Russia and depriving it of a market for gas." Hence, the author sees this meeting as a typical "failure story", as Russia had prevented the Iran-Armenian gas pipeline from being extended after Armenia. In fact this was a real success story, as Russia could as well have simply prevented the construction of the Iran-Armenia pipeline, thus preserving its own monopoly in the Armenian gas market. After all, is it realistic for a country like Armenia to be fully free of dependence on its neighbors? Especially on one like Russia? STEREOTYPE TWO: "COMPLEMENTARITY" IS A DREAM Weinstein, the authors of the ICG report and many others (both in Armenia and outside) speak about the so-called complementarity, the key of the Armenian foreign policy, with skepticism if not irony. "Since Yerevan lacks the resources to execute its complementarirty policy successfully, that policy has become a hopeful facade covering continuing dependence on Russia," Weinstein writes. Since its first days of independence, Armenia has always sought to keep equally good relations both with Russia and the U.S. (and the West in general). This policy got the brand name of "complementarity" in the late 90s. Let's see the results. Armenia is the only country in the world, which has managed to preserve the status of a military ally of Russia, and, at the same time, to be one of the largest recipients of American assistance (for a long period, Armenia was the third largest recipient in per capita terms, after Israel and Egypt). In some years, Yerevan managed to pay its bills for the Russian gas directly with the money provided by the U.S. If this is a failure, what is the success? STEREOTYPE THREE: ARMENIA IS NOT ORIENTED TO THE WEST It is a long-term belief that Georgia and even Azerbaijan are more inclined to adopt Western orientation than Armenia. Surprising as it may look, this vision is based on the fact that the West is primarily interested in contacts with Azerbaijan and Georgia (rather than with Armenia) due to the oil pipeline now under construction. Another arguable assumption supporting this belief is that, being a military ally to Russia, Armenia should inevitably copy Moscow's economy policy and foreign preferences as well. Such a perception has become even stronger after the "Rose revolution" in Georgia. "Yerevan's policy of complementarity contrasts with Tbilisi's pro-Western orientation since the Rose Revolution and with Baku's "balanced" policy," Weinstein writes, leaving the natural question "Where is the contrast?" unanswered. In reality, the status of a Russian ally hasn't prevented Armenia from performing extensive economic reforms (according to the estimates of the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development, in terms of market reforms Armenia is the most advanced country among the CIS). Contrary to what Weinstein states, Russia has never been Armenia's main creditor. More than half of Armenia's foreign debt is loans of the World Bank, i.e., it is made up of the funds provided by the leading Western countries for economy reforms. As for the bilateral loans, Russia was the largest creditor before 2002, as it had provided several high-interest loans in the peak of the economy crisis in mid-90s. After Yerevan settled this debt with the debt-for-equity deal (hence making Russia responsible for the proper work of these assets), Germany has become its largest creditor country, as it extensively credits economy reconstruction and reforms in Armenia at very concessive terms. All of these have led the U.S. to include Armenia in the list of those eligible for getting funds of the newly established Millennium Challenge Corporation (17 countries were elected among more than 70). Finally, Russia did not prevent its ally from performing NATO war games in Armenia in 2003 and from being included into the EU New Neighborhood policy in 2004. STEREOTYPE FOUR: ARMENIA MAY FACE INSTABILITY The report of the International Crisis Group contains a sound body of analysis and recommendations, most of which cannot be questioned. But, having read the whole report, one may ask, why have its authors chosen to give it the title: "Armenia: Internal Instability Ahead."? The fragment relevant to that idea in the report is: "While the present opposition -- divided and seen by many as more interested in regaining power than truly fixing the system -- does not have wide popular resonance, the situation could become much more explosive if a charismatic leader emerged." Obviously, such a conclusion does not imply that Armenia is "facing instability". Meanwhile, the possibility of internal instability in Armenia is even lower, because what is currently branded as opposition, i.e., the Ardarutiun (Justice) alliance, is not a real opposition at all. Rather, it is a part of the current ruling elite which has separated from it due to the events of the terrorist act of October 27, 1999, and partly, due to some details of the tactics towards the Nagorno Artsax problem. What is even more important, the "opposition" does not enjoy appreciable support of the country's business community. This is the key reason why the regime lead by Kocharian has remained stable (despite the violations and breaching during last year's elections) and, will, most likely, keep stability in the future, even if a "charismatic" opponent like Saakashvili or Yushchenko appears. The only possibility of internal instability in Armenia may be due to some split in the ruling coalition, but this possibility has not even been considered in the report. Hence, I can see no other reason for this alarming title to be chosen except for the failure of the report's authors to get rid of stereotypes about an "unstable" Armenia. Of course, Armenia is far from being a prosperous country with a stable environment. However, it is regrettable to see that analyses and media reports often fail to reveal its true problems and tell the readers about non-existing or forgotten ones. -- Haroutiun Khachatrian is a Yerevan-based writer specializing in economic and political affairs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
groul Posted January 15, 2005 Report Share Posted January 15, 2005 (edited) I don't have neither time nor wish to comment another piece of crap Sue wrote. But I want to comment the photo, because images are always much more powerfull than all the words. The number of people using wood to heat their apartments in winter decreases every year. Yet this year there was even sharper decrease, because natural gas is being installed in more and more Armenian regions constantly. At this moment more then a half of Yerevan and surrounding regions has natural gas supply. I am talking about what I have seen with my own eyes. So most of us have gas heaters now, almost the same I had while living in Vermont This photograph is probably taken 10 years ago, or at some wholesale wood market a which probably still exists somewhere though I personally have never seen anything like that since I moved back to Yerevan 10 months ago. Edited January 15, 2005 by groul Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arpa Posted January 15, 2005 Report Share Posted January 15, 2005 Has anyone looked into Ms. Sach's ethnicity and her special interest in Armenia vs Turkey? It may explain a lot! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gamavor Posted January 15, 2005 Report Share Posted January 15, 2005 Armenia, as well as most of the former Soviet Republics are well gasified, unlike many Eastern European countries, who also belonged to the Soviet Block. A modernization of the existing grid and some more appropriate investments would be of great benefit fot the further development of the economy. Natural Gas is the fuel for the coming 100 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominO123 Posted January 15, 2005 Report Share Posted January 15, 2005 Armenia, as well as most of the former Soviet Republics are well gasified, unlike many Eastern European countries, who also belonged to the Soviet Block. A modernization of the existing grid and some more appropriate investments would be of great benefit fot the further development of the economy. Natural Gas is the fuel for the coming 100 years. style_images/master/snapback.png According to some recent researchs, fossile fuel reserves won't last that long. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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