Russian-georgian Tensions

[skhara]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3655412.stm

 

Russian threats alarm Georgia

 

By Natalia Antelava

BBC, Tbilisi

 

 

Speculation about a possible Russian military strike is rife in Georgia, in the aftermath of the Beslan school tragedy and the Kremlin's threats to go after "terrorists".

 

Georgia is anxious to retain a hold on South Ossetia

 

From 1 October no Georgian aircraft will be allowed to land in Russia - the explanation from Moscow being that Georgian airlines have not been paying their airport dues.

 

But to Tbilisi this is another sign of what many officials say is unprecedented pressure from Russia following the Beslan siege.

 

Georgians are concerned that Moscow will try to link the school siege in Beslan to Georgia and will carry out its threat of preventive strikes in Georgia, which shares borders with Russia's troubled republics of Ingushetia, Dagestan, North Ossetia and Chechnya.

 

Statements from Moscow are fuelling the fears.

 

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said he does not exclude links between Georgia's breakaway province of South Ossetia and the events in Beslan, which is only 40 kilometres (25 miles) from the Georgian border.

 

Simmering tensions

 

Russian media allege that one of the hostage-takers from Beslan is hiding in the Kodori Gorge, in Georgia's other breakaway province - Abkhazia.

 

 

 

 

North Caucasus: At a glance

Georgia country profile

 

Moscow also claims that there are still Chechen "terrorists" in Georgia's Pankisi Gorge, on the border with Chechnya.

 

Pankisi, once a haven for Chechen guerrillas - and some even allege al-Qaeda fighters - has been bombed by Russia in the past.

 

But Georgia insists that its borders along the snow-capped Caucasus range are now fully under control. The question, according to Deputy Defence Minister David Sikharulidze, is whether Russia will choose to believe this.

 

"Our border guards are on high alert and we absolutely rule out infiltration of Chechen fighters into Georgia," Mr Sikharulidze says.

 

"But we know that unfortunately Russia will try to use this school tragedy to try and pursue its own agenda in the Caucasus."

 

This agenda, Mr Sikharulidze adds, includes destabilising Georgia.

 

For years, Georgians believe, Russia has done just that by supporting separatist regimes in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

 

Saakashvili defiant

 

Just last week Russia infuriated Tbilisi by resuming a train service between Moscow and Sukhumi, the capital of Abkhazia.

 

 

The Pankisi Gorge was a haven for Chechen militants until 2002

 

Analysts believe that Moscow is punishing Georgia for its pro-Western course.

 

Georgia's aspiration to join Nato, and the presence of US marines, who are training and equipping the Georgian army in Moscow's backyard, are all thorns in Russia's side.

 

Moscow says President Mikhail Saakashvili's vows to reunite Georgia are stirring up trouble on Russia's borders.

 

Earlier this summer, Mr Saakashvili sent extra troops into South Ossetia, claiming that it was a haven for smugglers.

 

The move sparked heavy fighting, which escalated until Georgia withdrew its troops and handed control back to a joint peacekeeping contingent under Russian command.

 

The Georgian president describes the peacekeepers as "piece-keepers - there to keep the pieces of the old empire and not the actual peace".

 

In South Ossetia at least, the Soviet empire, and with it the Cold War, does seem to live on.

 

Soviet nostalgia

 

Just a month ago, as Georgian and Ossetian forces exchanged fire and shells fell on the capital Tskhinvali, Russia's General Sviatoslav Nabdzorov was drinking vodka in one of Tskhinvali's restaurants.

 

His eyes filled with tears as he raised his glass to the "Great Soviet Union".

 

General Nabdzorov's comment about the conflict was much briefer then his long and nostalgic toast.

 

"Only Russia can sort out this conflict," he said, "not America!"

 

And so the fear in Tbilisi is that the Beslan school siege will give Russia a free hand to "sort out" the conflicts in the Caucasus, including those in Georgia.

 

And while President Saakashvili says he hopes to defuse tensions with Russia at a security summit in Kazakhstan this week, he too is flexing his muscles.

 

Last Sunday, Georgian interior ministry troops launched massive exercises by the South Ossetian border.

 

"The enemy is only 20 kilometres away," said Georgian Interior Minister Irakli Okruashvili as he saluted his troops. His finger pointed to the north.

[skhara]

It is likely only a matter of time before Russian troops engage Georgian.

[Armenian Highlander]

The "velvet revolution" of Georgia was financed, rather overtly, by the American based multi-Billionaire political activist named Soros. As an Armenian, I can only speculate about the Russian perspective regarding the geo-political drama being played out within the Caucasus.

 

However, it is obvious, as my previous posts have stated, there is an active agenda within various capitals to weaken Russia and the Russians realize this full well. The aforementioned agenda, sponsored by Zionists and Globalits and spearheaded primarily by Washington, London and Ankara have been concentrating their efforts within geographic areas that have traditionally been under Russian spheres of influence. As such, the anti-Russian agenda has more or less succeeded within Serbia, Uzbekistan, Georgia, Azerbaijan and, concurrently, have failed within Chechnya, Moldova, Armenia and Tajikistan. Russia, today, for obvious reasons, is unable to counter forcefully her antagonists. Thus, I believe Moscow is being patient for the time being as it consolidates its forces and assets. My only concern about Russia is the corruption that exists within it's political establishment that makes it vulnerable to subversion and treason.

 

Having lost direct control over Tbilisi and Baku, I believe that Russia is putting all her bets on a viable Armenian state. Because Moscow realizes that Armenia's geo-strategic aspiration coincides fully with hers and, more or less, with Tehran's. Concurrently, the US State Department for the past ten years has been trying very hard to win Armenia's allegiance. In essence, Washington has been trying to strengthen Armenia's enemies on the one hand, in hopes of enslaving her, and trying to win her over by financial aid on the other hand. Thus, the tiny landlocked nation of Armenia has become a major obstacle to the geo-strategic designs of Washington for the region. Thus, I am a bit concerned about future events regarding Armenia.

 

Moscow realizes that a strong Armenian state would potentially be a base for Russian military operations and economic aspirations. With Armenia within Russia's sphere of influence, the other two republics of the Trans-Caucasus are more or less useless to Washington. This is because the Trans-Caucasus has been allegorically likened to be a chair with three legs -- if one is removed it becomes useless. Thus, with Armenia outside of Washington's direct influence, the anti-Russian agenda within the Trans-Caucasus can not succeed. Therefore, it is no surprise that Russia is stockpiling weaponry within Armenia. What's more, the Georgian saga is not over yet. It will be interesting to see how the antonymous regions of Ossetia and Abkhazia will be effected in the near future. In my opinion, the autonomous region of Abkhazia will be the decisive battleground between Washington and Moscow within Georgia.

 

The primary problem with Georgia is that the nation is not homogeneous, they have dozens of distinct ethnicities living within the borders of Georgia, with Turkic tribes being most prominent amongst them. The multi-ethnic, multi-lingual and multi-faith national reality has always been a problem for the Georgians because they have not been able to formulate a cohesive national character, one that is a representative of all peoples who live within Georgia. Moreover, unlike Armenians, Georgians tend to dislike and or distrust Russians for various historic and sociological reasons. Furthermore, Georgians have deep rooted historic animosities against Armenians. Armenians have always been baffled by this because Armenians have contributed greatly to Georgian culture.

 

For example: The "Bagratuni" Georgian kingdom that rose to prominence within the thirteenth century A.D. by defeating numerous Turkic armies was of Armenian decent and its military leadership and troop was mainly comprised of Armenians. Armenian Christian monks evangelized Georgian tribes and, thereafter, administered their church for several centuries. Armenians founded or directly influenced the national script of Georgians and also heavily influenced their national Church architecture. Many prominent Georgians, including their present president, are of Armenian decent. The Armenian population of Tbilisi, during the nineteenth century, exceeded fifty percent. Yet, despite all this, the Georgians have always portrayed hostilities towards Armenians. Within the late ninetieth and early twentieth centuries, at a time when Armenians were desperately struggling against Turks for their survival, Georgians often allied themselves with Turks.

 

Consequently, today, there is not much respect towards Georgian politics and culture on the behalf of Armenians. What's more, with strong Turkic and Jewish influences within Georgia today, I do not see Georgians looking favorably toward Armenian or Russians in the foreseeable future. Armenia has been and is Russia's only natural ally within the southern Caucasus.