The Armenian Land Question

[Vigil]

The Armenian Land Question--Misunderstood Terrain

 

By David B. Boyajian

 

Geography, someone once said, is destiny. If so, the present geography

of Armenia poses major challenges for its future.

 

Small and landlocked, Armenia is outflanked by Turkey to the west and

Azerbaijan to the east. To the north, unreliable Georgia controls

Armenia's routes to the Black Sea and Russia. To the south, thankfully,

lies friendly Iran. Unfortunately, the Iranian provinces just to

Armenia's south contain millions of Azeris who might someday blockade

Armenia by forming an autonomous pan-Turkic corridor from Turkey to

Azerbaijan.

 

To endure and prosper, Armenia must somehow break out of its

geographical straightjacket by reclaiming the lands of historical

Western Armenia, which, as we know, lie mostly within what is now

called eastern Turkey.

 

That territory was the primary site of the 1915-1923 Genocide, and much

of it was to be incorporated into the Armenian Republic in 1920 by the

Treaty of Sevres, which Turkey signed but later renounced. Perhaps four

times the size of the current Republic of Armenia, the treaty territory

constitutes about 15 percent of present-day Turkey. Significantly, it

included a coastline on the Black Sea.

 

Why Land?

 

Today that coastline would provide Armenia with a direct sea route to

Europe and Russia. Georgia would lose the potential to deny Armenia

access to much of the outside world, and Armenia would be less

vulnerable to a Turkish land blockade. Armenia's economy and national

security would be strengthened.

 

Eventually Armenia might develop an ocean-going navy, including

submarines that could endow the country with a stealthy, survivable

defense capability.

 

Present-day Armenia with its limited, rocky soil has trouble feeding

itself. Regaining its well-irrigated, traditional breadbasket in

Western Armenia would clearly be beneficial.

 

Recouping territory is also simple justice, restoring what Turks took

from Armenians in the carnage of 1915 and by centuries of massacre,

deportation, confiscation, onerous taxation, abduction, rape, and

forced Islamization.

 

Says political scientist Khatchik Der Ghougassian, Turkey in 1915

"intended to redefine the geopolitical situation by eliminating

Armenians from Asia Minor. Thus, a response to the Genocide must

deprive Turkey of the geopolitical map it made possible by committing

genocide."

 

Additionally, Turkey has come to believe that it can get away with

killing huge numbers of Armenians and seizing their land. It bodes ill

for Armenia's future if Turkey is not made to unlearn that lesson.

 

But there are misconceptions about how and when Armenia can regain

territory.

 

Regaining Territory

 

Contrary to what some may think, no serious Armenian analyst has ever

suggested that Armenia can march over the Turkish border next week and

retake what rightfully belongs to it. Armenian land can be resettled

only in the long term, perhaps decades from now.

 

The most plausible scenario is war, unfortunately, though not

necessarily between Armenia and Turkey.

 

Instability breeds war, and there are few regions more unstable than

eastern Turkey where, for instance, on and off warfare between Kurds

and the central government has taken place for centuries. Though the

most recent war ended in 1999, some Kurdish groups (Pkk/Hadek/Kongra-

Gel) just announced a resumption of that conflict.

 

Future military cooperation between Armenians and Kurds, perhaps with

Russian assistance, and a subsequent division of the spoils--even if

less than Armenians would like--is a possibility.

 

Also possible is a conflict between Turkey and Russia, who have fought

at least eight wars in the last three centuries. Some of the

battlegrounds were in eastern Turkey. During World War I, for instance,

the Russian Army advanced deep into the Western Armenian heartland.

Only the Russian Revolution brought about a withdrawal. A similar

scenario, with Armenia itself possibly retaking some territory, cannot

be ruled out.

 

Neither should one underestimate the ability of Armenians themselves to

retake land. Against all odds, Armenians not only won the battle for

Karabagh in 1993, but also captured a buffer zone of about 2,000 square

miles within what is now Azerbaijan, where comparatively few Armenians

lived at the time.

 

Currently, the West and Turkey's only route into Azerbaijan and the

Caspian region that avoids their Russian and Iranian adversaries is

through unstable Georgia. Were Georgia to become further destabilized,

Armenia would, in theory, possess considerable leverage as the only

remaining route. Might some land concessions then be offered Armenia in

return for its cooperation?

 

Resettlement Issue

 

Another misconception is that Armenians could never repopulate Western

Armenia since surviving among its several million Turks and Kurds would

be unrealistic. Again, no serious analyst has ever suggested, nor would

Armenians consider, repopulating territory while it remained under

Turkish control. Armenia or a friendly power would need to administer

the territory for it to be safe for resettlement.

 

What about the Turks, Kurds, and others, many of part Armenian descent,

who now occupy homes, property, farms, and towns in eastern Turkey that

90 years ago were Armenian? Admittedly, the question has no simple

answer.

 

There are, however, many precedents for large-scale population

movements. For example:

 

. Azerbaijan's attack on Karabagh more than a decade ago led hundreds

of thousands of Azeris in Armenia and Armenians in Azerbaijan to flee

in opposite directions. This was a tragedy, yet a peace accord may

someday allow many of these people to return to their homes or be

compensated.

 

. After their war ended in 1922, Greece and Turkey "exchanged" 1.5

million people--most Greeks in Turkey were sent to Greece, while lesser

numbers of Turks in Greece returned to Turkey.

 

. Kurds are currently repopulating districts in northern Iraq from

which the former regime had removed them, though not always in ways

that are fair to the present Arab residents.

 

. The Council of Europe is demanding that as many as 100,000 Meshket

Turks, whom Stalin deported from Georgia to Central Asia, be settled

near Armenians in Georgia's Javakhk region. Turks deserve to be

resettled, but not Armenians?

 

No one underestimates the difficulties. Even in 1920, the Sevres Treaty

in hand, the destitute survivors of the Genocide and the impoverished

Armenian Republic would have encountered difficulty in returning to and

administering their land. Indeed, Turkey confiscated Armenian property

and nearly eradicated Armenians in 1915 precisely to make it hard for

the survivors and other Armenians to ever return.

 

To totally dismiss the goal of Armenian resettlement is, therefore, to

reward Turkey for having created the problem in the first place.

Ultimately, the criminal, not the victim, bears responsibility for

setting things right.

 

Armenians do not, of course, wish hardship on others. Still, Armenia

deserves a measure of justice and security. If Turkey wants to talk

about that, Armenians have always been willing to sit down at the

table.

 

The Future

 

Admittedly, just holding onto Armenia and Karabagh now is difficult,

especially in view of the menacing Turkish-Georgian-Azeri axis backed

by the US. Frankly, it is even conceivable that Turkey, in its ongoing

drive into the Caucasus and Central Asia, will someday overrun a piece

of Armenia before the latter gets even one inch of its territory back.

 

Armenia's present state of affairs does not, however, preclude us from

considering how best to address the land issue in the future.

 

Some Armenians have, unfortunately, convinced themselves that even

mentioning the land issue is too provocative. As if the Genocide and

subsequent land theft were not themselves the ultimate provocations.

 

Remember, too, that Turkey--a relative newcomer to the region,

incidentally, and nowhere near as old as the Armenian nation--is itself

beset by political and economic problems and nearly surrounded by less

than friendly nations including Greece, Cyprus, Iran, Russia, and

others.

 

Just as few foresaw the independence of Armenia and the disintegration

of the Soviet Union, no one can predict whether or how the land issue

will be resolved.

 

Ottoman Turkey has, however, been shrinking steadily for hundreds of

years. Moreover, as it occupies Armenian territory and rules over

Kurds, Turkey can still be regarded as an empire. Be they Roman,

Byzantine, British, or Soviet, empires inevitably contract and fall.