Armenia Edges Away

[Vigil]

Armenia Edges Away

 

Rosbalt

14/03/2004, 11:03

 

The redrawing of the geopolitical map, now going on quite openly in the

Southern Caucasus after Georgia's 'revolution of roses,' has largely

bypassed Armenia, so far. Current indications suggest, however, that Armenia

will soon take its place at the center of the rivalry raging between

Washington, Teheran and Moscow.

 

Exporting Revolution-US Style

 

The United States has, for the most part quietly, stepped up its activity

in Armenia. The mere fact that Washington has decided to make the new

consulate that it plans to build in Erevan its largest in the world speaks

for itself. The official explanations offered by US Ambassador John Ordway

about the need for a large consulate to deal with the multitude of US

programs are hard to credit in view of Armenia's size. There is some

information suggesting that the consulate could serve in the future as a

staging area for the movement of US troops through the region. It's

obvious that the philanthropic projects of a consulate hardly need nine

hectares of land on the main road to Erevan's airport in a building with

independent energy sources and its own reservoir.

 

Recently, the Armenian media have been carrying stories about the Democratic

Institute (which is run by the not unknown Madeleine Albright) stepping up

its work in Armenia. They are saying that Chad Rodgers, who heads political

programs for the institute, has been trying to get pro-Russian-leaning

Armenian parties to make some false and self-destructive steps. In any case,

it is a fact that on January 20 Rodgers, during a meeting with Artur

Bagdasarian, speaker of Armenia's parliament, declared that the Democratic

Institute had altered its priorities in Armenia. While the institute had

heretofore concentrated on seeing that Armenia's elections were conducted

democratically, he said, the new stress will be on working with political

parties to help them realize their political and social potentials. Exactly

what he means by potential is not clear as yet. However, there have been

reports of an increase in money from Western sources going to Armenia's

opposition parties.

 

In turn, official Washington had an especially 'nice gift' for the Armenian

government. The State Department's yearly report on human rights was

particularly harsh toward Armenia. Particular stress was put on violations

during the parliamentary and presidential elections of last year. Consider,

however: The Council of Europe also found fault with the elections but

expressed appreciation for government attempts last fall to rectify the

situation and was generally optimistic about Armenia and offered it further

opportunity to deal with its problems. The American report suggested that

Washington was preparing for a possible quick change of power in Armenia.

 

One immediately thinks of what George Bush said to Mikhail Saakashvili when

Saakashvili visit the US recently: 'The way power changed hands in Georgia

may be an inspiring example for others. The president and I have discussed

the significance of the 'revolution of roses' for other parts of the planet.

The potential of people to take responsibility for their own lives and

transform their society by peaceful means -- that is a powerful example for

the peoples of the world, who thirst for freedom and want honest

government.' In the wake of the State Department report and this statement

by Bush, Robert Kocharian may be wondering if he will be among the victims

of the next 'revolution of flowers.' Especially against a background of

heightened activity by an opposition that talks of its readiness to bring

down an 'illegitimate' government, even by unconstitutional means.

 

Kremlin Miscalculations

 

In the resulting circumstances, with Washington ever more covetously

eyeing another piece of the strategically important South Caucasus,

Moscow's behavior toward Armenia looks very odd. Russia's unqualified

support for the elections of 2003, especially when violations were so

obvious that only the blind couldn't see them, itself put Armenian society

on guard. The later turning over of 80% of Armenia's energy sector to

Russia was seen as payback by the government for Russian support during

the tough election fight.

 

Even that wouldn't have stirred much dissatisfaction, if the Russian

companies hadn't immediately tried to raise prices. In consequence, the

Armenian government last fall had to give the Russian-controlled energy

companies significant tax breaks to keep them from raising prices that were

already too much for most of the population. And the threat of an increase

in prices still hangs over the country like a sword of Damocles.

 

At the same time, ArmRosGazprom (Gazprom owns 45% and Itera owns 10%, since

January 2004, Gazprom supplies Armenia with all its gas) pushed through

higher prices. There had not been an increase in gas prices in Armenia since

1997. Why Russian companies took such unpopular steps just when, after

Georgia's 'revolution,' the Armenian political situation was so exacerbated

is hard to fathom. The result was not long in coming.

 

As recently as the middle of last year, talk of anti-Russian swings of

opinion in Armenia was nonsensical. Not only were attitudes toward Russia

positive in Armenian society generally, but that was true of the government

and of the most powerful opposition groups as well. As late as July 2003,

Stepan Demirchian, leader of the opposition bloc Justice and Kocharian's

principal opponent in the election, declared that 'strategic union with

Russia is one of the main priorities of our foreign policy.' Then in

November, Viktor Dallakian, the bloc's secretary, told Rosbalt that

Kocharian has become a puppet of Moscow. He said the Armenian president had

made unprecedented concessions to Russia only 'in order to keep his

position.'

 

The opposition was even aggrieved by recent agreements about Russia's

Military Base 102, about which hitherto one had either spoken well or said

nothing. 'The world has seen nothing like these agreements about Russia's

military base. The Russian side is not only given the land under the base,

but the government has taken it upon itself to pay for public services. The

opposite is how it's done elsewhere. Countries supplement their budgets from

a foreign military presence,' Dallakian declared.

 

November 2003 was, in a sense, the turning point. Armenia's opposition

politicians 'exploded,' as it were, and took an explicitly anti-Russian

position. As if in concert, opposition figures began characterizing Russian

policy toward Armenia and throughout the Southern Caucasus as

neo-imperialistic, based on force and totalitarian. In the camp of the

opposition, the view began to harden that Armenia was isolating itself by

tying its foreign policy and its economy to Russia. There was increasing

talk about the need to intensify the country's ties to the United States and

NATO.

 

Moreover, these tirades against the Kremlin began to be heard on television,

something entirely new for Armenia. On February 16, at the founding

convention of the newly created Liberal-Progressive Party, its leader,

Ovaness Ovannisian, spoke out explicitly in favor of Armenia's joining NATO

so that it would not find itself on the dividing line in the South Caucasus.

He said Russia did not wish to see democracy established in Armenia and that

Russian influence had reached the point where the Kremlin could dictate who

would or would not be president of Armenia.

 

The Iranian Factor

 

It is clear that if a Russian-US conflict flares up over whose influence

prevails in Armenia, Iran -- which shares a border with Armenia -- cannot

stand aside. Washington having control of Armenia would be a serious blow

to Teheran. Iran simply cannot allow that to develop on its northern

borders. Very likely, this was what lay behind the unexpected visit by

Iran of its special services chief, Information Minister Ali Unesi, to

Erevan on February 25-26, who met with Armenia's top leaders, including

His Holiness Garegin II, and then was gone.

 

Competing forces are building up in Armenia, and it is uncertain which will

prevail. It is clear that Russia won't back down to Armenia. Meanwhile,

within Armenia itself partisans of strategic cooperation with Russia

outnumber their opponents. For the time being. We should not forget that

opposition leader Stepan Demirchian officially received about 33% of the

votes in the presidential election. And the tilting of the opposition in the

anti-Russia direction, with practically no countereffort by Moscow, is

capable of creating all the fundamentals for Russia's losing Armenia.

 

Samvel Martirosian, Rosbalt, Erevan Translated by Howard Goldfinger

Edited May 31, 2004 by Vigil

[Arpa]

Armenia Edges Away

 

Rosbalt

14/03/2004, 11:03

 

The redrawing of the geopolitical map, now going on quite openly in the

Southern Caucasus after Georgia's 'revolution of roses,' has largely

bypassed Armenia, so far. Current indications suggest, however, that Armenia

will soon take its place at the center of the rivalry raging between

Washington, Teheran and Moscow.

 

Exporting Revolution-US Style

 

The United States has, for the most part quietly, stepped up its activity

in Armenia. The mere fact that Washington has decided to make the new

consulate that it plans to build in Erevan its largest in the world speaks

for itself. The official explanations offered by US Ambassador John Ordway

about the need for a large consulate to deal with the

Very interesting.

We had seen these news before yet we have not learned the reason why the world's biggest US embassy will be built in Yerevan. There must be a reason. Anybody have an idea why?

We have also learned that most of the expert construction workers will be drawn from foreign countries including Turkey.

 

December 2003

 

NEW U.S. EMBASSY CONSTRUCTION PROJECT FACTSHEET

 

-- The new U.S. embassy is being built on a location adjacent to Lake Yerevan. The site occupies an area of 90,469 sq/m (22 American acres), the biggest lot on which a new U.S. embassy has been built. With regard to office space, the new embassy compound in Yerevan is classified as one of the largest U.S. embassies worldwide.

 

-- The location of the new embassy was selected as a result of serious and open discussions with the government of Armenia, during which dozens of sites were evaluated to find one that would best meet the needs of the U.S. and Armenian governments.

 

-- The new embassy compound in Yerevan is budgeted for 80 million USD.

 

-- The new embassy compound contains a five-story Chancery Building of 13, 470 square meters, USAID Building (future), two-story Marine Security Guard Quarters, GSO Annex, Warehouse, Main and Service Compound Access Control Structures.

 

-- The design-build contract was awarded in September 2001. The general contractor is JA Jones Construction, North Carolina, U.S.A, which has retained MLL Industries of Armenia as its main subcontractor. As of December 2003, the overall project has reached 40% completion and is expected to finish by December 2004. The new embassy is scheduled for dedication and occupancy in spring 2005.

 

-- The Project management is carried out by the Office of Overseas Buildings Operation, U.S. Department of State. Currently there are 18 Americans from the U.S. Government office and 35 locally recruited staff at the project site supervising the project implementation.

 

-- The total workforce of 582 at the project site consists of 16 Americans, 9 Filipinos, 65 Turks, and 492 Armenians.

 

-- The U.S. government paid the prevailing market price of about 5 million USD for acquiring the new embassy site from Armenia. The sale agreement included several provisions to ensure that the rights of all parties, both Armenian and American, are protected. The new embassy, after it is completed, will not block citizen access to Lake Yerevan, which remains the property of the Republic of Armenia.

 

-- The need for a new embassy resulted from the tremendous expansion of the U.S. relationship with Armenia in recent years. The new embassy complex will house U.S. embassy employees and visitors, both American and Armenian, in safe, secure, and attractive surroundings. The new embassy compound also represents a substantial U.S. investment in Armenia's construction industry in terms of specialist training and skills development.

 

-- The new embassy compound is being built to the highest architectural and engineering standards to resist blast and earthquake. Numerous review boards, both in the United States and in Armenia, have ensured that it complies with all local building and architectural codes and that it presents the most favorable impression of the United States.

http://www.usa.am/press/pr113003.htm

[Vigil]

Very interesting.

We had seen these news before yet we have not learned the reason why the world's biggest US embassy will be built in Yerevan. There must be a reason. Anybody have an idea why?

 

In my opinion geopolitically Armenia is a very stratigic place. If you look at a worldatlas it is evident that through Armenia they have access to Europe, Asia, and the Middle-East. Another factor that plays an important role is the recent turbulence with Turkey and their eagerness to invade Iran.

 

We have also learned that most of the expert construction workers will be drawn from foreign countries including Turkey.

 

This is a very bad idea due to the horrible track record of Turkey's construction industry.

Edited May 31, 2004 by Vigil

[Armat]

Kocharian giving away precious energy sectors to Russia is actually equivalent to treason.

What would a chess player think about politics in Armenia as described in that article?

1. Use all competing powers for your advantage

2. Screen out what is more important –queen? (US) Russia (rook) Iran (bishop or knight)

3. Analyze the long term strategy the benefits verses negative consequences.

4. Supporting US in my opinion is the best option considering the Mullah government is not going to last long ,Iranian society is ripe for new democratic revolution. Mullahs have few years left in power and once overthrown Iranians will become the greatest ally to US after Israel as was the case before revolution.

5. Armenians must take the advantage of truly leading the caucuses in Economy, military and in politics and then as it is already signs of happing it cannot be ignored hence we must strive for our interests first.

[hytga]

There is some

information suggesting that the consulate could serve in the future as a

staging area for the movement of US troops through the region.

 

even though it's big it's hardly a good place from which to start a mass invasion, one of the reasons being is that first they'd have to move the troops to the consulate, and prepare, which obveously would not go unnoticed

Edited March 15, 2004 by hytga

[Armat]

Invading Iran?Pure fantacy.US can not even sort out Iraq draining US treasurydaily.There will be no more Bush.This is certain to happen

 

Arpa and others

Suppose US were building the biggest consulate in Azerbaijan or in Georgia how would Armenians feel? Certainly lesser importance correct, and that lesser importance could translate that her interests could easily have overrun by her neighbors right? So now in my simple thinking this is great news for Armenia as far as I see.

Edited March 15, 2004 by Armat

[Arpa]

So now in my simple thinking this is great news for Armenia as far as I see.

Of course it is great news, if only the fact that a compound of that size will have a comparable staff to fill which in turn translate into $$$$. Yet it is a mystery why the US is building the largest embassy in one of the world's smallest countries.

Has anybody heard or seen Ankara's reaction to these developments? Unless, of course half the premises will be staffed with US allies(???) like NATO and others, and you know who the closest NATO member to Yerevan is.

Ultimately, if this compound is meant to be a hub of activities (propaganda, espionage, subversion, you name it) for the neighborhood will that not attract undesirable consequences? On the other hand, if and when Yerevan is threatened then the US may act more forcefully since it will have a sizable staff of US citizens.

[hytga]

nd you know who the closest NATO member to Yerevan is.

who?

[Armat]

who?

Turkey....