Armenia's Allies

[Guest]

I know this is a very hypothetical situation but the thought has occured to me on a few occasions.

 

Even though we live in the 21st century Turkey has the ability to declare war on Armenia. Their reasons could be various and and do not have to be logical. It is obvious that Turkey is by far more powerful and can win in a matter of days (maybe weeks). Would the international community step in? Would anybody ally themselves with Armenia? In the past it was said that sovietization was what was keeping Armenia safe. Now that is no longer the case.

[Guest]

Let’s look from the perspective what will Turkey gain from attacking. Clearly the negatives outweigh the positives. In its desperate attempt to portray itself as a member of European Community, Turkey will run the risk to being outcast from Europe. It heavily depends on loans from IMF and World Bank, and becoming and pariah state will completely bankrupt the country. In addition to that Turkey follows the doctrine set by Ataturk 80 years ago, which is western orientation. What will Turkey gain from attacking Armenia, besides increasing its already poor population by 2 million more (poor Armenians) and a country whose economy is in ruins, nothing. One can bring an example of Turkish invasion to Cyprus in 1974, which was triggered by Greek extremists. Cyprus had a significant Turkish minority, who needed protection from the Republic of Turkey. There might be a pretext of protecting Azerbaijan against Armenian invasion, however the chances are extremely low. In 1992-93 armed conflict was on the brink of happening, when Armenian side attacked Sadarak in Naxichevan, however strong rhetoric by Russia and Armenia’s withdrawal from the conflict in that zone prevented an escalation of a conflict. Turkey is under obligation to protect Naxichevan’s sovereignty under the Kars and Moscow treaties. MJ jan, somebody will step in if it’s against their interests, just like Russia did in 1993.

[Guest]

quote:

---

Originally posted by alpha:
Turkey is under obligation to protect NaxichevanÂ’s sovereignty under the Kars and Moscow treaties. MJ jan, somebody will step in if itÂ’s against their interests, just like Russia did in 1993.

---

Alpha,

It is true that Turkey has stake in Nakhichevan, but the Treaty obligates Russia to execute the letter and the spirit of the Treaty. Otherwise I agree with your assessments, except that I don't see who is interested to declare war to Turkey for the sake of Armenia.

[Guest]

quote:

---

Originally posted by BTac:
Would the international community step in? Would anybody ally themselves with Armenia? In the past it was said that sovietization was what was keeping Armenia safe. Now that is no longer the case.

---

In our wildest dreams would somebody step in.

As to the Sovietization of Armenia safeguarding Armenia, I think it is sort of one-sided view. In the absence of Sovietization, other alternatives might've been in place. For example, there might've been a deal with Turkey, if not the sequence of immature diplomatic and other initiatives from the Armenian side.

After all, Turkey had recognized the independence of both Easter and Western Armenia (Western Armenia in Sevrus). It was Russia who made the Severus treaty to collapse for Armenia, by its subsequent occupation of the Republic of Armenia, and by assigning a poppet government.

[Guest]

quote:

---

Originally posted by MJ:
In our wildest dreams would somebody step in.

---

Do you think there is anything Turkey would have to lose in case it did plan an attack? I mean is the only thing keeping Turkey from attacking the fact that they just don't want to and would probably have nothing to gain?