SHIITES HIT THE FAN

[Arpa]

The SHIITE hit the FAN. I mean the ROTOR.

 

Thhttp://news.am/eng/news/238879.html

Pquote]STEPANAKERT. A Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) Air Force helicopter was shot at on Wednesday at around 1:45pm, and as a result of ceasefire violation by the Azerbaijani armed forces.

The helicopter was shot during a training flight in the airspace of the eastern sector of the Karabakh-Azerbaijan border.

The location where the helicopter was shot at is very close to the Line of Contact, the NKR MOD press service informed.

The adversary, using various-caliber artillery weapons, continues to intensively fire shots toward the scene of the incident.

Details of the incident are being investigated.

===

It hit the World News.

----

http://news.yahoo.com/azerbaijan-shoots-down-armenian-military-helicopter-baku-132139074.html

 

Armenia vows 'grave consequences' after helicopter downed

Baku (AFP) - Yerevan vowed 'grave consequences' Wednesday after Azerbaijani forces shot down an Armenian military helicopter, sparking fears of a major escalation of the longstanding conflict over Nagorny Karabakh

The downing is the most serious military incident along the Karabakh frontier since the 1994 ceasefire that ended a bloody war that cost 30,000 lives over the disputed region.

Armenian media reported that the helicopter's three crew members were all killed.

"A MI-24 combat helicopter attempted to attack positions of the Azerbaijani army near (Karabakh's) Agdam district," Azerbaijan's defence ministry said in a statement.

Armenian media reported that the helicopter's three crew members were all killed.

"A MI-24 combat helicopter attempted to attack positions of the Azerbaijani army near (Karabakh's) Agdam district," Azerbaijan's defence ministry said in a statement.

"The helicopter has been shot down by the Azerbaijani army," it said, adding that the wreckage fell on territory held by ethnic Armenians.

Yerevan vowed that Baku will face "grave consequences", fuelling fears that the incident might seriously undermine a shaky peace.

"This is an unprecedented escalation and the consequences for Azerbaijan will be grave, Armenias Foreign Ministry spokesman, Artsrun Hovannisyan, told AFP.

Azerbaijan's claim that the Armenian helicopter attacked its positions is not true. Examination of the wreckage will prove that the helicopter carried no weapons, he added.

The separatist defence ministry in Karabakh confirmed that its helicopter was downed by Azerbaijani forces "while conducting a training flight as part of military drills", adding that a firefight began after the incident and was continuing.

and was continuing.

"The enemy is continuing to fire intensively in the direction of the site of the incident with small arms of various calibre," it said.

Since Thursday, Karabakh forces have been conducting joint drills with Armenia coordinated by the Armenian army chief-of-staff.

- Worse since Ukraine crisis -

Two decades after a ceasefire agreement ended their bitter war over Karabakh, Azerbaijani and Armenian forces regularly exchange fire across their frontier and along the Karabakh frontline.

Last August saw an unprecedented spiral of violence with more than 20 troops killed from both sides in the deadliest clashes since an overall ceasefire was agreed

Last August saw an unprecedented spiral of violence with more than 20 troops killed from both sides in the deadliest clashes since an overall ceasefire was agreed.

Armenian separatists backed by Yerevan seized the mountainous region, which is mainly inhabited by ethnic Armenians, from Azerbaijan in a war in the 1990s.

Despite years of internationally mediated negotiations, the two sides have not yet signed a final peace deal, with Karabakh still internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan.

The peace talks are being brokered by the so-called Minsk group of mediators appointed by the OSCE in 1992 and co-chaired by France, Russia and the United States.

Oil-rich Baku, whose military spending exceeds Armenia's entire state budget, has threatened to take back the region by force if negotiations do not yield results.

Armenia, which is heavily armed by Russia, says it could crush any offensive.

Last month Europe made a fresh push to end the festering conflict.

Germany's Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier visited both countries in October to facilitate a negotiated solution to the conflict.

French President Francois Hollande also hosted leaders from Armenia and Azerbaijan for Karabakh talks but the meeting ended without any breakthrough.

Tensions between Baku and Moscow-allied Yerevan are escalating as Russia confronts the West over Ukraine, where government forces are battling pro-Russian separatists.

Tensions between Baku and Moscow-allied Yerevan are escalating as Russia confronts the West over Ukraine, where government forces are battling pro-Russian separatists.

"What happened in Ukraine has had a direct impact" on the Karabakh conflict, a source in Hollande's entourage said in October, adding that Russia's annexation of Crimea "exacerbated

[Ashot]

http://commonspace.eu/eng/news/6/id3118

http://commonspace.eu/script_upload/news/mm3rg5shng2wsdp.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The European Union has called for an investigation in an incident in which an Armenian military helicopter, belonging to the armed forces of the self-declared Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, was shot down by Azerbaijan. A statement issued by the European External Action Service (EEAS) said "it is essential that all sides show restraint and avoid any actions or statements which could escalate the situation. Furthermore, we call for an investigation into this incident."

In its' statement the European Union reiterated its full support to the efforts of the OSCE Minsk Group and the three Co-Chairs. It said both sides have to strictly respect the ceasefire, to refrain from the use of force or any threat thereof, and to resume efforts towards a peaceful resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict."

On their part, the three co-Chairman of the OSCE Minsk Process also issued a statement following the incident. Ambassadors Igor Popov of the Russian Federation, James Warlick of the United States, and Pierre Andrieu of France expressed their very serious concern about the downing of a helicopter near the Line of Contact and the recent violence. "We regret the loss of life and express our condolences to the families", they said in their statement

The Co-Chairs are deeply worried by the events that prompted this drastic incident, the first of its kind since the ceasefire agreement was reached. Their statement added, "We strongly appeal to the sides to avoid steps that would escalate tension along the Line of Contact and Armenia-Azerbaijan border. The region cannot afford another round of violence like we witnessed this summer. Today's events remind us of the volatility of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the urgency to intensify efforts to find a lasting settlement. We remain resolved to assist the sides in any way possible. We remind the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan of their responsibilities to respect the ceasefire and honour the commitments they made in Sochi, Newport, and Paris to find a peaceful resolution to the conflict. We also encourage them to adopt confidence-building measures now that would increase transparency along the Line of Contact and the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, and reduce the likelihood of events like today's incident."

According to media reports two Armenian helicopters approached the Azerbaijani side of the line of contact whilst participating in military manoevres that have been going on for the last days. One of the helicopters was shot down and the other escaped. Azerbaijan has confirmed it shot down the Armenian helicopter 1700 meters north-east of Kangarli village (Aghdam region). This is the first time that an aircraft has been shot down in the Karabakh conflict zone since the cease fire came into force twenty years ago. A statement by the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry said that the Azerbaijani forces shot down the helicopter whilst responding to its fire. The Azerbaijani Defence Minister in the meantime has said that the soldier who shot down the helicopter has been given a medal.

According to Armenian sources "The helicopter was shot down on Wednesday at around 1:45pm, and as a result of ceasefire violation by the Azerbaijani armed forces. The helicopter was shot during a training flight in the airspace of the eastern sector of the Karabakh-Azerbaijan border. The location where the helicopter was shot at is very close to the Line of Contact."

Armenian Defense Minister press secretary, Artsrun Hovhannisyan, told Armenian News-NEWS.am that "the Azerbaijani accusations that the Armenian helicopters had launched an attack on Azerbaijani positions are mindless, since an examination of the pieces of the helicopter's debris will confirm that it was not armed".

source: commonspace.eu

photo: An Armenian helicopter is seen ablaze after being hit by Azerbaijani fire near the line of contact in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone. A second Armenian helicopter is seen moving away from the incident. (Photo is one of a series released by the Ministry of Defence of Azerbaijan).

[Ashot]

Ադրբեջանի կողմից Լեռնային Ղարաբաղի Հանրապետության տարածքը ոչ թռիչքային գոտի հայտարարելուց ժամեր անց այսօր ՀՀ Նախագահ, ՀՀ զինված ուժերի գերագույն գլխավոր հրամանատար Սերժ Սարգսյանի ուղղաթիռը վայրէջք է կատարել Ստեփանակերտի օդանավակայանում։

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_irR62xCFg

[Ashot]

[Arpa]

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/78942000/jpg/_78942481_mi-24.jpg

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/78942000/jpg/_78942481_mi-24.jpg

Dear Ashot, we-re glad to see again.

You get the idea.

From the BBC

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30025296

]Azerbaijan downs Armenian helicopter

An Armenian Mi-24 helicopter, like the one pictured, was shot down by Azerbaijani forces (file photo)

Azerbaijan's defence ministry says its forces have shot down an Armenian military helicopter violating its airspace. Three crew members were killed in the incident, according to local reports. The helicopter was flying in the disputed territory of Nagorno Karabakh, an enclave in western Azerbaijan controlled by ethnic Armenians.

A regional conflict dating from the Soviet era ended in a ceasefire in 1994 but tensions have risen again recently. Azerbaijan's defence ministry said the Mi-24 helicopter was downed close to the frontline between Azerbaijani and Armenian troops.

Separatist officials in Nagorno Karabakh confirmed the attack, saying it happened during a "training flight as part of military drills".

Tensions in the region stretch back decades.

A war broke out in 1988 during the twilight of Soviet rule over Azerbaijan, with Armenian secessionists fighting a bloody conflict against the country's army.

Under the eventual 1994 ceasefire deal, landlocked Nagorno Karabakh and seven adjacent Azerbaijani districts were left under the control of ethnic Armenian forces.

Wednesday's incident was the first of its kind since the deal was signed

]

Soldiers of the breakaway Nagorno Karabakh territory, shown on parade in 2012

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/78942000/jpg/_78942484_nagorny.jpg

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/78942000/jpg/_78942484_nagorny.jpg

[MosJan]

and the world is silent.... so bee it.. this are your friends ??? who your covering up for ??
this is your answer ...

 

 

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/american-sailors-assaulted-turkish-youths-istanbul-navy-n247046

 

 

 

[MosJan]

[onjig]

In the video on post #4 you can hear the slobbering grunts and then cheers when they see they have done some damage. A good moment for antihumans. I hope to the contrary of the Azi Orks brag, that there was no loss of life.

[Arpa]

http://news.am/eng/news/239198.html

 

One of a crew of 3 may be alive

-----

 

 

The Azerbaijani armed forces violated the ceasefire and shot down a Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) Air Force helicopter on Wednesday. The chopper was downed during a training flight, and nearby the eastern sector of the Karabakh-Azerbaijan Line of Contact. As a result, three pilots are believed to have been killed:The commander of the helicopter, Major Sergey Sahakyan, and Senior Lieutenant Sargis Nazaryan and Lieutenant Azat Sahakyan. Information was disseminated some time thereafter, however, that a member of the helicopter crew may still be alive[ The adversary, on the other hand, continues to intensively fire shots toward the crash site.

[Yervant1]

“The NATO Secretary General's Special Representative for the Caucasus and Central Asia has urged both sides of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to restrain from further action."

What the hell does "Both sides" mean, when one side only does the shooting?

As long there is Gas and Oil, we will hear this crap. Some countries have God's given right to defend themselves by any means, but us should show restraint go figure this one out. Double standard and hypocrisy comes to mind, nothing else so is the world's misguided politics.

Edited November 14, 2014 by Yervant1

[Yervant1]

Ignorance is bliss!!!!!!!!!!!! Or is it willful ignorance.

 

JOURNALISTS ADDRESS QUESTIONS ON DOWNED HELICOPTER AT U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE

10:34, 14 November, 2014

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 14, ARMENPRESS. The United States will continue to
work through its contacts on the ground to see if the sides can move
closer to a resolution. As reports "Armenpress", the State Department
Spokeswoman Jen Psaki stated this.

Among other things, Psaki noted: "We are aware of the report and we
regret the loss of life as a result of yesterday's, I should say,
downing of a helicopter along the line of contact. We extend our
condolences to the families of those killed or injured. These events -
this event is yet another reminder of the need to redouble efforts
on peaceful resolution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, including
reducing tension and respecting the ceasefire."

"As a co-chair of the Minsk Group, we certainly remain committed
to helping both sides. Obviously, we are engaged through diplomatic
channels with both sides about our belief that they need to redouble
efforts to get back to a peaceful negotiation. And naturally,
retaliation, further violence, escalating tensions certainly does not
help that effort, but we will continue to work through our contacts
on the ground to see if we can move closer to a resolution," the
State Department Spokeswoman noted.

Then, a journalist stated: "Do you acknowledge that it was Azerbaijan
which violated the ceasefire yesterday, and also violated one of the
main principles of peaceful settlement of the conflict, which is no use
of force? Do you acknowledge this part?" In this regard Psaki noted:
"I don't have any analysis of the exact events on the ground.

We've seen the same reports. There are obviously comments and claims
from both sides, but I don't have any analysis beyond that." Also,
the journalist voiced another question and said: "Azerbaijan shooting
an Armenian vessel, then it's pretty clear which party is violating
the ceasefire."

Ms. Psaki tried to justify herself and stated: "We understand there
are views by both sides, but I don't have any comment from the U.S.

Government on it."

http://armenpress.am/eng/news/783925/journalists-address-questions-on-downed-helicopter-at-us-department-of-state.html

 

[Yervant1]

15:51 15/11/2014 » REGION

Azerbaijani military experts expose Defense Ministry’s fraud about allegedly ‘‘attacking helicopter’’

Military commentator Rashad Suleymanov published a status on his Facebook page in which he expressed dissatisfaction with the demonstration of video footage that proves that the NKR Air Force helicopter was shot down in the Armenian territory and it did not even try to attack the Azerbaijani positions; this contradicts the version of the events presented by the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry.

"If tomorrow war starts, there will be no need to send journalists to the front line. There's our military armed with Ipad-s and phones," outrages the military commentator and notes that the grandparents too sitting by the road with their iPhones in their hands will work as journalists.

In another status a Suleymanov outrages with the inaction of the official structures of Azerbaijan in connection with the distribution of the footage. "I bring to the attention of Alaftun [Amashev] that the video footage of the downed helicopter published by our media contradicts with the official information of the Defense Ministry. I say this as a person familiar with military affairs and the line of contact,” Suleymanov writes.

He also notes that Azerbaijan cannot carry out war with a press, where work deserters who "escape" from the army and do not understand anything in military life.

It is noteworthy that one of the participants of the discussion - a user named Ruslan Rahimov draws attention to the fact that the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan itself extended the screenshots of this very video. Another participant of the discussion - military expert Uzeir Jafarov confesses that he is the author of this video, and notes that the Defense Ministry would spread a video footage with better quality, if it was available.

"Rashad, I understand your concern, but no need to worry. Perhaps you are concerned with the fact that the military servicemen tell the commander "hit" and that the second helicopter moves off. PERMISSION was granted officially. The soldiers were simply a bit in a hurry. Ilkin just clicked on the "button", Jafarov says.

Another panellist - user named Hagani Safaroglu notes that the official statement of the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry about the attacking helicopter and the video footage published in the Azerbaijani media apparently contradict each other. "What this amateurishness means? Defense Ministry is obliged to give an explanation," the user writes.

After this discussion, Aflatun Amashov, the chairman of the Press Council of Azerbaijan, issued a statement condemning the media for dissemination of the video. "No journalist could have taken the moment when the helicopter was shot down. In this case, question arises - how could the media get this footage. I think that this should be seriously investigated," Amashev stated.

As NKR Defense Ministry press service reported earlier, on November 12, at around 1:45 pm, Nagorno Karabakh Air Forces’ Mi-24 helicopter was shot by the Azerbaijani Armed Forces during military training flight in the airspace in the eastern section of Karabakh – Azerbaijan Line of Contact. The land, on which the incident occurred, is in close proximity to the line of contact. Opponent after the incident continued intense bombardment scene from weapons of different caliber. The place where the helicopter was shot is close to the Line of Contact. The enemy continued to fire shots from weapons of different calibers after the incident.

Meanwhile, the press secretary of Armenian Defense Minister Artsrun Hovhannisyan wrote on his Facebook page that Azerbaijani Armed Forces have carried out an unprecedented provocation on the border with the Republic of Nagorno Karabakh; this has also led to escalation of the situation. In the same time the fabrications of the Azerbaijani side, as if the Armenian helicopters had attacked their positions and they allegedly had merely responded to this step, are senseless. "The study of the wreckage of the helicopter will confirm that he was not armed. The escalation of the Azerbaijani side has continued even after the helicopter fall down. Moreover, the Azerbaijani side continued shelling, not allowing even to get closer to the pilots. The consequences of this unprecedented escalation will be very harmful for the Azerbaijani side and will remain as a stain on the conscience of the military-political leadership of Azerbaijan. Captain of the helicopter was Major Sergei Sahakyan. Information about the fate of the crew will be given later," Artsrun Hovhannisyan stated.

Source: Panorama.am

[Yervant1]

15:21 15/11/2014 » SOCIETY

Media expert: Videos allegedly showing Karabakh helicopter downing were from Syrian war

The videos allegedly showing the Nagorno-Karabakh helicopter downing, released by Azerbaijan several hours after the incident, were filmed during the Syrian war, media expert Samvel Martirosyan told reporters on Saturday.
According to him, after the incident, Azerbaijan started to disseminate video recordings to show that allegedly there have been military operations. Two videos were released, which actually were from the Syrian war, Mr Martirosyan noted.
The media expert praised the Armenian media for their coverage of the recent events.

Source: Panorama.am

[Yervant1]

Empty rhetoric!

US Congressmen condemn Azerbaijan’s actions: Nagorno Karabakh residents deserve and want peace

Members of Congress continue condemning Azerbaijan’s latest escalation of anti-Armenian aggression, reports Asbarez.

“The downing of an Armenian helicopter today is an indefensible aggressive action that threatens to undermine the fragile ceasefire and plunge the region back into violence,” House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ed Royce (R-CA) announced. “Azerbaijan must immediately cease all such attacks and provocations and commit to concrete progress in the Minsk Group talks.”

In a statement issued earlier today, Rep, Judy Chu explained “I am deeply troubled by the latest evidence of Azerbaijan’s continued aggression with their attack on an apparently unarmed helicopter. The people in Nagorno Karabakh deserve and desire peace, but Azerbaijan’s disregard for the 1994 cease fire threatens both sides with conflict.”

“Azerbaijan should be held accountable for engaging in violence and not in peaceful negotiations,” commented San Fernando Valley, CA Congressman Brad Sherman, tweeting in solidarity with the Armenian Youth Federation #ArtsakhStrong social media campaign raising awareness about Karabakh freedom and opposing Azerbaijan’s increasing aggression.

CA Board of Equalization Member and Controller Elect Betty Yee also shared her concerns regarding the most recent attack. “When life is threatened anywhere and citizens are left in fear, the possibility of peace becomes less hopeful. I join my elected colleagues around the world in denouncing this act of violence against Armenia. May peace reign within the borders, and may violence against any people and nation be condemned,” Betty Yee stated.

Congressmen Frank Pallone and Adam Schiff had condemned the actions of Azerbaijan earlier.

As NKR Defense Ministry press service reported earlier, on November 12, at around 1:45 pm, Nagorno Karabakh Air Forces’ Mi-24 helicopter was shot by the Azerbaijani Armed Forces during military training flight in the airspace in the eastern section of Karabakh – Azerbaijan Line of Contact. The land, on which the incident occurred, is in close proximity to the line of contact. Opponent after the incident continued intense bombardment scene from weapons of different caliber. The place where the helicopter was shot is close to the Line of Contact. The enemy continued to fire shots from weapons of different calibers after the incident.
Meanwhile, the press secretary of Armenian Defense Minister Artsrun Hovhannisyan wrote on his Facebook page that Azerbaijani Armed Forces have carried out an unprecedented provocation on the border with the Republic of Nagorno Karabakh; this has also led to escalation of the situation. In the same time the fabrications of the Azerbaijani side, as if the Armenian helicopters had attacked their positions and they allegedly had merely responded to this step, are senseless. "The study of the wreckage of the helicopter will confirm that he was not armed. The escalation of the Azerbaijani side has continued even after the helicopter fall down. Moreover, the Azerbaijani side continued shelling, not allowing even to get closer to the pilots. The consequences of this unprecedented escalation will be very harmful for the Azerbaijani side and will remain as a stain on the conscience of the military-political leadership of Azerbaijan. Captain of the helicopter was Major Sergei Sahakyan. Information about the fate of the crew will be given later," Artsrun Hovhannisyan stated.

Source: Panorama.am

 

[Yervant1]

DEFEATED ON GROUND WAR, AZERBAIJAN DECIDED TO SHIFT THEATRE TO AIR

13:50 * 14.11.14

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is being dealt with at the highest
level Larisa Alaverdyan, Executive Director, the Foundation against
the Violation of Law (FAVL) told reporters on Friday.

No conflict has ever been dealt with at such a high level, with
representatives of the great powers' presidents involved, she added.

"This is evidence of a great role assigned to the situation in this
region," Ms Alaverdyan said.

Azerbaijan does not admit its defeat this August, but points to their
"victory in their air as well."

"We should not hope for others - Russia or any other nation. We must
rely on ourselves just as during the Artsakh war, which we won with
flying colors," she said.

Deputy Director of the Institute of Literature Vardan Devrikyan, who
participated in the Nagorno-Karabakh war, believes that Azerbaijan's
act created a new military technical situation.

"Our excellent retaliations this July and August forced Azerbaijan
into that step. Defeated in ground war, Azerbaijan decided to shift
the theater of war to the air," Mr Devrikyan said.

Armenian military command must retaliate and they know how to do it,
he said.

Armenian News - Tert.am

[Yervant1]

MEP: EU SHOULD ORGANIZE AN AD HOC MISSION TO EXAMINE THE DOWNING OF THE NKR HELICOPTER

16:17, 14 Nov 2014

Member of the European Parliament, head of the EU-Armenia Parliamentary
Friendship Group Eleni Theocharous has issued a statement condemning
the Azerbaijani provocative actions and states that the EU should
organize an ad hoc mission to examine what happened on the ground.

"With this statement, I feel the obligation to condemn a provocative
action taken by the Azerbaijani Military Forces, on November 12 2014,
against innocent people who have probably lost their lives. In fact,
the Azerbaijani Military Forces shot down an unarmed helicopter of
the Nagorno - Karabakh (NKR) Defense Army while it was on a training
flight.

The fate of the crew members remains unknown because of Azerbaijan's
continued shootings and therefore the rescue operation seems to be
very complicated. This incident is the most serious one since the
cease fire agreement signed in 1994 by Azerbaijan, Nagorno Karabakh
Republic and Armenia.

I have already sent a letter to the President of the European
Commission Jan Claude Junkcer and to other Commissioners in which I
highlighted the facts of the incident. Furthermore, I proposed that
the EU should organise an ad hoc mission to examine on the ground
what really happened. What is evident, for the time being, is that
the government of Azerbaijan has violated the cease-fire and three
innocent people have rather lost their lives.

The EU should condemn this action and support the efforts for the
solution of the problem [conflict of Nagorno Karabakh] on the basis
of the right of self-determination (article 1 paragraph 2 of the
UN Charter)."

http://www.armradio.am/en/2014/11/14/mep-eu-should-organize-an-ad-hoc-mission-to-examine-the-downing-of-the-nkr-helicopter/

[Yervant1]

Correction, Artsakh was never a part of Azerboobjan!

 

 

http://static.bbci.co.uk/frameworks/barlesque/2.75.0/desktop/3.5/img/blq-blocks_grey_alpha.png

13 November 2014 Last updated at 11:02 ET

 

Armenian helicopter downing: 'Grave consequences' warning

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/78956000/png/_78956468_armenia_chopper.png

Footage from the Azerbaijan defence ministry showed the helicopter explode in the air before coming down

 

Armenia has threatened "grave consequences" after Azerbaijan shot down one of its helicopter in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region.

All three crew members on board were killed in the incident, Armenian media report.

Azerbaijan's defence ministry said the Mi-24 helicopter was downed after it tried to attack its positions.

Nagorno-Karabakh is part of Azerbaijan but has been under Armenian control since a 1994 ceasefire.

During the collapse of Soviet rule, the two sides fought a bloody war over the territory, at a cost of 30,000 lives.

"This is an unprecedented escalation and the consequences for Azerbaijan will be grave," Armenian foreign ministry spokesman Artsrun Hovannisyan said.

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/78962000/jpg/_78962489_78962488.jpg

Armenia's President Serzh Sargsyan © and Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev ® held talks last month

A further statement from Armenia's foreign ministry accused the Azeris of a "criminal provocation" and of "gravely violating agreements reached at recent summits".

Azerbaijan's foreign ministry said the aircraft had illegally intruded on Azerbaijani airspace. A statement on local media called for the withdrawal of Armenian forces from the territory.

Mediators appointed by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) said they were "deeply worried" by the incident.

Spiralling violence

Wednesday's incident is the first time an aircraft has been shot down in the region since the 1994 truce.

Under the deal, landlocked Nagorno-Karabakh and seven adjacent Azerbaijani districts were left under the control of ethnic Armenian forces.

There have been sporadic clashes ever since, but violence escalated over the summer with at least 19 soldiers killed in clashes.

Armenian forces have been carrying out military drills over the past week in Nagorno-Karabakh.

The presidents of the two countries met in Paris last month with French President Francois Hollande in an attempt to ease tensions.

But despite years of negotiations, a peace agreement is yet to be reached,

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/78942000/gif/_78942824_nagorno_karabakh_map.gif

 

[Yervant1]

http://asbarez.com/App/Asbarez/images/asbarez_01_460x101.jpg

Friday, November 14th, 2014

 

Blood, Oil: Which is Thicker?

http://asbarez.com/App/Asbarez/eng/2014/11/Garen-Y.131.jpg

Garen Yegparian

BY GAREN YEGPARIAN

Here I am, trying to make sense of things. But, the last few days of developments and news are giving me a case of cognitive dissonance. It doesn’t help that we, Armenians, see what Turkey and Azerbaijan do as inextricably intertwined… even though sometimes they are really NOT.

There was some good news on the Hrant Dink case. A court ordered further investigation of civil servants who might have been negligent or complicit in Dink’s murder plot.

Then we had Azerbaijan downing an unarmed helicopter on a training mission resulting in the death of three members of Artsakh’s military. The Azeris are making no effort to hide or mask their provocation, since the defense ministry has announced that an officer has been honored for downing the aircraft.

Obviously, the loss of life is the first concern. Second is that the Azeris continue to probe for weakness and instigate tension along the Artsakh-Azerbaijan front. Third is that Artsakh will now be compelled to teach Azerbaijan another lesson. How can that lesson be anything but withering? And when it happens, would it be any surprise if the Azeris used it as a pretext for yet more cross-border attacks? If war is near, this is the shortest route to it.

While all this is happening, we read about “Landmine Free Artsakh Committee” raising money for the HALO Trust’s ongoing efforts to rid the area of landmines and other ordnance. The European Union Special Representative for the South Caucasus, Ambassador Herbert Salber wants to visit Artsakh to develop awareness of conditions on the ground. Both of these are bits of good news.

Yet, there’s the countervailing bad news of the Minsk Group and other international institutions issuing their usual bloodless call for “restraint,” “non-escalation,” “honoring of commitments,” etc. Don’t these people have a conscience? Don’t they have brothers, sisters, children, and parents whose death would sorely grieve them? Why do they not strongly condemn the perpetrator of the crime, clearly naming Azerbaijan as the responsible party and taking punitive steps against it? Doesn’t this look like shades of Turkey’s Genocide denial and international complicity with it?

I can only see black, not just figuratively, but the darkness of oil. There’s no other rational explanation for the international community’s inertia in confronting Azerbaijan’s repeated ceasefire violations. These people are so worried about Baku’s petty dictator and his tantrums that they render all other considerations moot.

What are we to do? No doubt, there’ll soon be a gaping crater where the shooting that downed the helicopter came from. And after that? We must keep plugging. No one said liberation of a homeland is easy.

[Yervant1]

AZERI PRESIDENT WELCOMES SHOOTING DOWN OF ARMENIAN HELICOPTER

by Tatevik Shahunyan

Monday, November 17, 12:50

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev praised the destruction of the
Armenian helicopter on the border.

Contact.az reports that while visiting the staff of the Azerbaijani
Armed Forces in Shamkir on Saturday, Aliyev expressed confidence that
"our armed forces have high combat capability and will continue to
provide an adequate response to any provocation of the enemy."

The Azerbaijani President also gave relevant instructions in relation
to the situation.

To remind, the Azerbaijani armed forces violated the ceasefire and shot
down an NKR Air Force helicopter on November 12. The helicopter was
downed during a training flight, and it crashed nearby the Karabakh-
Azerbaijan line of contact. As a result, three pilots are believed
to have been killed: the commander of the helicopter, Major Sergey
Sahakyan, the Senior Lieutenant Sargis Nazaryan, and the Lieutenant
Azat Sahakyan.

http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=2F4518D0-6E3F-11E4-956F0EB7C0D21663

[Yervant1]

ARMENIAN CIVIL ACTIVIST BEGINS HUNGER STRIKE IN FRONT OF OSCE OFFICE IN YEREVAN

17:27 * 17.11.14

Spokesman for the Heritage party, civil activist Davit Sanasaryan
has begun a hunger strike in front of the OSCE office in Yerevan.

He is urging the OSCE to act in conformity with its mandate and mediate
the handover of the three-member crew of the Armenian helicopter shot
down on November 12.

It is due to the OSCE Minsk Group's inadequate conduct that the
crew members' bodies are still at the crash site, Mr Sanasaryan
told Tert.am.

"Days have passed, but nothing has been done, and the boys are lying
there. The OSCE must quickly get in touch with both countries'
authorities, take immediate measures for the Red Cross or our
servicemen approach the site and take the boys away.

But OSCE representatives are only making inadequate statements and
have talks with officials. We are not seeking any serious steps on
their part," he said.

Asked about the reasons for the OSCE Minsk Group not taking any
serious steps, he said:

"They may fail to have a clear idea of the situation. Otherwise, they
would realize that their delayed steps may result in serious warm and
they would leave Armenia after failing to implement their mandate. At
least Armenia will do what it has to. But none of us wants war."

Mr Sanasaryan ruled out the possibility of Azerbaijani pressures
against the OSCE Minsk Group. "Their hand is simply far from the
pulse for coming and staying on the border a little longer to see
that they very often suffer a failure," he added.

Asked whether his protest isn't also directed against the Ministry
of Defense, the activist gave a negative answer, warning against any
attempts to make haste.

"Of course, ours can get there to pull out the bodies, but we may
have more victims and losses. Azerbaijanis may have tenfold the size
of ours, but I do not want any losses. I have one desire - to be able
to take adequate steps to pull out our guys," he added.

Mr Sanasaryan said he isn't aware if there are any people wishing to
join him, but warned against any extreme steps. "I would call upon
anyone to avoid joining me and taking such a step. Hunger-strike is
an extreme measure," Mr Sanasaryan said, adding that he doesn't think
it is right to push the Ministry of Defense to large-scale measures.

Mr Sanasaryan added that employees of the OSCE Office had approached
to him say that the ambassador was out.

Despite the cool autumn weather in Yerevan, the activist says he is
determined to spend the night outside the building.

http://www.tert.am/en/news/2014/11/17/sanasarian-armenia/

[Yervant1]

ARMENIAN HOSTAGES IN AZERBAIJAN

Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
Comments - 17 November 2014, 23:53

Several days have passed since the Azerbaijanis shot down the Armenian
helicopter but the Armenian side cannot get close to the place where
the Armenian helicopter fell. The Azerbaijanis are firing at the place
which is said to be a neutral area. The NKR minister of defense Movses
Hakobyan announced that the helicopter is lying 150 meters from the
Azerbaijani positions and 350 meters from the Armenian positions.

The Armenian side has applied to the Red Cross and mediators but
without any progress so far. On the other hand, opinions are heard
that the Armenian armed forces must invade this territory instead of
addressing the international organizations.

However, this is not an easy task indeed. The difference between the
armed forces of Armenia is not enough for a massive "blitzkrieg" in
this situation. The Azerbaijanis are not just armed with hunting guns.

They will resist, of course, and new victims on the Armenian side
are possible, especially that we are dealing with an open area.

At the same time, there is such a sensitive issue as the bodies of the
crew. The helicopter plunged and burned, and the members of the crew
could have burned. It is possible that search will take a long time.

On the other hand, it has not been stated whether the Azerbaijanis
could have taken the bodies of the Armenian crew. Are the Armenian
armed forces keeping the area under fire to prevent the Azerbaijanis
from getting close to the bodies?

At the same time, the question arises whether it was not possible to
attack suddenly and occupy the area and take the bodies of the crew
provided that the Armenian side was conducting a large-scale military
training with plenty of personnel and equipment.

Several things are essential, of course. First, the Armenian side
was mobilized for a drill but in such cases usually the enemy is also
brought to defense preparedness. For example, when the Azerbaijanis
are conducting a large-scale military exercise at the border of
Artsakh or Armenia, the Armenian forces are also prepared for any
sudden development. So there is a high probability that the sudden
attack would not help.

Was this circumstance there or any military action would have been
fraught with new victims therefore a decision to refrain from such
action was made?

Anyway, the existing situation is complicated. From the purely military
point of view, the optimal solution can be a thoroughly worked out
action for which the even landscape is additional complication.

The addresses to the international organizations have not received
a specific answer. There is no doubt that the issue is going through
a stage of political-diplomatic discussions. In addition, it is not
ruled out that not only the issue of returning the bodies of the crew
to Armenia is discussed but the incident and the issue of bodies has
triggered a bigger discussion.

In this context it is obvious that Baku will use the bodies of the
Armenian crew as hostages trying to achieve maximum tradeoff in
regard to the response of the Armenian armed forces. The Armenian
minister of defense has announced that the answer of the Armenian
side is going to be equal and even a little disproportionate. And
Azerbaijan certainly knows very well the defense capability of the
Armenian units and their possible consequences.

At the same time, it is possible that the Armenian side will not strike
unless the issue of the Armenian side has not been clarified, and the
bodies have not been returned. Hence, the bodies of the Armenian crew
are hostages in Azerbaijan and Baku will, most probably, try to get
guarantees from the Minsk Group mediators that after returning the
bodies the Armenian side will refrain from the declared strikes.

The mediators may, of course, make Baku return the bodies without
political bargaining but it would have been possible if the helicopter
incident had not become a subject of political bargaining among the
mediators. Meanwhile, this causes doubts, almost incredible, especially
due to two important circumstances: the close military-technical
cooperation between Russia and Baku and the fact that the helicopter
was downed with a system supplied by Russia.

- See more at:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33234#sthash.w5MuG1eV.dpuf

[Yervant1]

Commentary
Countries Selling Weapons to Azerbaijan
Are Just as Guilty for Attacks on Artsakh

By Harut Sassounian
Publisher, The California Courier
www.TheCaliforniaCourier.com

Azerbaijan's armed forces committed a criminal act on November 12,
shooting down an unarmed Armenian helicopter inside Artsakh's borders
and killing three military officers. This is the first time since the
1994 ceasefire that Azerbaijan has attacked an Armenian aircraft.
Armenia should not only retaliate against Azerbaijan, but also take
all appropriate diplomatic measures to identify and condemn the
country that sold Baku the missiles used to down the helicopter. It
should be noted that in recent years Israel and Russia have sold
billions of dollars of sophisticated military hardware to Azerbaijan.
This unwarranted attack is partly due to 20 years of tit-for-tat
border skirmishes during which Azeri sharpshooters kill Armenians and
Armenian soldiers return fire killing Azeris. Sitting in his Palace in
Baku, Pres. Aliyev does not seem to be bothered by the loss of young
Azeris, so long as an equal number of Armenians are killed, since
there are several times more Azerbaijanis (close to 10 million) than
Armenians (less than three million) in their respective countries. For
Aliyev, sacrificing Azeri soldiers is a worthwhile investment for the
sake of keeping the focus of the international community on the
unresolved Karabagh conflict.
Armenians worldwide are relieved that leaders of Armenia and Artsakh
have announced their serious intent to respond to the latest Azeri
aggression with a massive and disproportionate attack. One would hope
that after a major Armenian counteroffensive, Aliyev might realize
that Azerbaijan is paying a heavy price for his self-defeating
military adventures.
Sadly, the Armenian unwillingness to launch a large-scale retaliation
over the years emboldened Azerbaijan's despot to resort to more brazen
attacks, culminating in last week's downing of an unarmed
helicopter. What's next? Blowing up a civilian plane with a large
number of Armenian passengers, as he has repeatedly threatened to do?
Another puzzling situation is the continued high-level peace talks
between the two countries, while one of the sides -- Azerbaijan --
keeps on shooting! How is it possible to talk peace and fire at the
same time? At the end of every summit meeting, Armenian and
Azerbaijani leaders, along with Minsk Group mediators representing the
United States, France and Russia, routinely declare that the Karabagh
conflict should be resolved through peaceful means, while Azerbaijan
continues its aggressive behavior before, during, and after the peace
talks!
To make matters worse, after each Azeri attack, the Minsk Group urges
both Armenia and Azerbaijan to exercise restraint and places the blame
equally on both sides. Such unfair and false parity only emboldens
Azerbaijan to intensify its aggression. If the international community
truly seeks a peaceful resolution and wants to prevent unnecessary
bloodshed around Artsakh, it should ban the sale of weapons to
Azerbaijan and issue a strong condemnation each time it violates the
ceasefire.
Meanwhile, the Armenian government needs to take all necessary
defensive measures to protect the people of Armenia and Artsakh from
wanton Azeri attacks, even if it has to launch pre-emptive strikes
deep inside Azerbaijan. Aliyev should not forget that his country's
oil and gas pipelines, oil fields and refineries are highly vulnerable
to such attacks which could cause billions of dollars of damage to the
economy.
To discourage Azerbaijan's aggressive behavior, Armenia must declare
that it would not only retaliate, but also freeze the peace talks by
six months after each Azeri attack. Because Aliyev hopes to get back
through negotiations some of the territories on the periphery of
Artsakh, the suspension of peace talks would delay and eventually
block the return of any territory. Thus, after a lengthy suspension of
the talks, Aliyev would learn a valuable lesson: You can't talk peace
and make war at the same time!
Should Azerbaijan persist in its hostile behavior, Armenia could
terminate all negotiations and decide either to recognize the Republic
of Artsakh, or officially declare that Artsakh is an inseparable part
of Armenia.
If Aliyev is foolish enough to make war, he may end up losing more
territory and leave his country's considerable energy infrastructure
in total shambles. No one should take seriously Aliyev's repeated
threats to invade Armenia and Artsakh. Most military experts
acknowledge that Azerbaijan's military is inferior to Armenia's,
despite the lavish expenditure of billions of petrodollars to acquire
the latest weaponry.

[Yervant1]

http://www.ragmamoul.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/etom_1.jpg

To Retaliate or not to Retaliate?

 

November 19, 2014

By Edmond Y. Azadian

http://www.ragmamoul.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/azadian-edmond-150x150.jpg

Should Armenia hit back at Azerbaijan or not? That is the Shakespearean dilemma looming over the border between Karabagh and Azerbaijan. Although it is a forgone conclusion on the Armenian side of the border that sooner or later Armenian forces have to retaliate against Azerbaijan for its provocation in shooting down last week an Armenian unarmed military M1-24 helicopter, which was flying near the ceasefire line accompanied by another helicopter.

As of this writing, recovery efforts have failed. The helicopter was shot down within the no-man’s land and the bodies of the three soldiers remain on board and inaccessible, as the area remains under intense firing on both sides. The Armenian side is firing to keep the Azeri forces away to prevent them from committing any foul play; the Armenians worry the enemy may plant a missile in the crash site to prove their case that the Armenian forces had hostile intentions. The Azeris are firing to keep away the Armenian forces from the no-man’s land and possibly protract the tension and its eventual resolution.

In defiance of President Ilham Aliyev’s declaration of Karabagh’s air space as a no-fly zone, President Serge Sargisian arrived at the Stepanakert airport aboard a military helicopter, accompanied by Defense Minister Seyran Ohanian. They both wore military fatigues, viewed the continuing war games and the Armenian president delivered a stern speech, threatening to retaliate against the aggression in an appropriate manner, painful enough to discourage Azerbaijan from further provocations.

The opposition and the pro-government circles are unanimous in their determination that retaliation is a must. But many differ in the timing and the measure of that retaliation. The military brass is inclined to exercise immediate and massive retaliation, while other circles advise further study of the Azeri motivations and the consequences of that retaliation.

The international observers, having studied the logic of Karabagh conflict, are of the opinion that the Armenian side will not keep silent for long.

Despite the rising of war rhetoric and ensuing violations of the ceasefire regime, all sides seem to be convinced that an all-out war is not an option yet. President Sargisian, who threatened to retaliate in his defiant speech, stated that the threat of an all-out war is not imminent.

The international reaction to the shooting down of the helicopter was very predictable. Jan Psaki of the US State Department, the members of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group and the Russian Foreign Ministry unanimously cautioned both sides equally to refrain from further provocation, knowing full well who was the responsible party in this latest incident.

The fact that Azerbaijan’s ministry of defense has handed out military honors to the soldiers who fired the missile proves that the incident was not an accident or a case of miscalculations; it was a decision made on the highest level of the Ministry of Defense.

Last June, the ceasefire line was violated many times and the Armenian forces retaliated against Azeri provocation on three fronts, causing a large number of Azeri casualties. In August, President Vladimir Putin of Russia invited the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, cautioning them to use restraint. Then, other top-level meetings followed. The US Secretary of State John Kerry and French President Francois Hollande brought the presidents of the two nations together and there was a renewed lull on the border.

Additionally, every time summit meetings took place with the participation of the two presidents and hopes were raised for a peaceful settlement of the conflict, Azerbaijan immediately violated the ceasefire regime to dampen the hopes for peace. This time around, it took some time to repeat the scenario, but it came and more aggressively than before.

The opposition newspaper Haykakan Jamanak is of the opinion that Mr. Aliyev is not 100 percent sure of the outcome of the war and that any miscalculation will cost the end of the Aliyev dynasty with the loss of tremendous wealth stolen from the state coffers and the ensuing life of an exile.

Many in Armenia have been wondering why Moscow is arming Azerbaijan so heavily when the latter’s only enemy is Armenia, Russia’s strategic ally.

Answers and speculations are many and varied; one answer is that Moscow is eager to entice Baku to join the Eurasian Union to complete its hegemony over the Caucasus. Others believe that it is in the interest of Russia to keep the region simmering, short of all-out war, to pose as a savior to both sides.

Considering the military developments on the Russian-Ukrainian border, Armenians expect that Russia may try to introduce its forces in Karabagh for “peace-keeping” purposes. All observers believe that the military dynamics in the Caucasus are under Russian control.

Another frequent question is why Aliyev chose to shoot down the military helicopter and why now?

Again, answers are many and varied. Recently, during a military ceremony, echoing his master’s voice, the Azeri Defense Minister Zakir Hasanov criticized the “idleness” of the Minsk Group. He expressed his exasperation and announced that the only alternative remains the military option to “restore Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity.”

The escalation of the rhetoric seems to be the discontent of restive population of Azerbaijan under Aliyev’s repressive regime, which has come under severe criticism, mostly from the western governments. Therefore, to divert the population’s attention from the general discontent, Aliyev needs a scapegoat, which is the Karabagh conflict. As he amasses the nation’s wealth, he wishes to project a patriotic image and sometimes his vanity trumps sanity, forcing him into adventurous postures.

Knowing full well Moscow’s grip on Armenia, Aliyev demonstrates his impatience to force Moscow’s hand into action, to order Armenia to withdraw its forces from Karabagh.

As speculations and theories abound, one source in Armenia believes that the recent provocation was caused by the west, forcing Azerbaijan to engage in another bloody conflict while Moscow is busy on its border with Ukraine.

That possibility seems remote, even when Russia is not engaged in any place over the globe. The answer is given in an interview by a prominent Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhaur. It has always been a moot question whether the Armenian-Russian defense pact covers Karabagh. The analyst said he believes that Russia may intervene if Armenia is attacked by Turkey, a prospect which is a remote possibility at this time. “But if war breaks out between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Karabagh, the Russian pact with Armenia does not cover Karabagh. The most that Russia will do is to warn the two sides to cease the hostilities.” And this is the protection from our strategic ally, Russia.

As if the turmoil in Georgia was not enough, now the escalation of Armenian-Azeri border is intensifying with unforeseen consequences.

As to whether Armenia will retaliate, it is a foregone conclusion in all quarters. That solves the Shakespearean dilemma, leaving us with the question when and in what shape that retaliation will come.

[Yervant1]

BAKU IN PANIC. AWAITING ARMENIA'S HEAVY STRIKE

Haikazn Ghahriyan, Editor-in-Chief
Comments - 18 November 2014, 20:47

The Azerbaijani ministry of defense has announced that if the enemy
dares launch any military action, the Azerbaijani armed forces
will respond promptly and substantially, causing huge losses and
destruction.

Apparently, this is their answer to the statements by the leadership
of the Armenian armed forces. Note that upon concluding the military
exercise in Karabakh Serzh Sargsyan announced that the Armenian side
will respond to Azerbaijan. RA Minister of Defense Seiran Ohanyan
said their response will be a little disproportionate.

For his part, the commander of the NKR Defense Army announced that
"we will strike them where they are not expecting. Our relevant
services are, therefore, constantly studying the weaknesses and
strengths of the enemy, and we will hit them where it will be more
painful for the enemy. And this does not mean that we are going to
hit their weak spot. We will hit their strongest and best protected
spot to resolve our problems at once."

After shooting down the Armenian helicopter Azerbaijan declared
Karabakh a no-fly area. In answer to this Serzh Sargsyan went to
Karabakh by helicopter, and upon the end of the military exercise
the helicopters of the Armenian armed forces were flown.

Azerbaijan has not allowed the Armenian side to get close to the
helicopter which fell in the neutral area. The Armenian side is
trying to resolve this problem through the mediators. The Armenian
side could have attacked this site immediately after the incident,
especially that the equipment was deployed in the site and brought
to defense preparedness. However, certain circumstances prevented the
Armenian side from such actions, and the "prime time" was missed. Now,
as military and experts say, such actions would be fraught with
serious consequences.

The statement of the Azerbaijani defense ministry indicates that
the Azerbaijani side is in panic and is doing everything it can to
prevent the Armenian side from reaching the helicopter, keeping the
Armenian crew as hostages to make sure that the Armenian side does
not strike that direction.

On the other hand, Azerbaijan understands that the Armenian side
would have hardly been dissuaded from such actions by the risk of
Azerbaijan's prompt and substantial strike. They also understand
that the action of the Armenian army would have been the least of all
troubles. Baku has a bad feeling, which is felt from the publications
of the Azerbaijani and Turkish press.

The point is that the action of the Armenian army is not the only
problem. By shooting down the Armenian helicopter Azerbaijan has made
itself vulnerable because, firstly, it violated the international
norms and ceasefire, and secondly, this indicates quite a different
level of resistance and heavier responsibility when any answer of the
Armenian side, including one outside the logic of the "local conflict",
will be considered legitimate. Air incidents change the course and
level of military-political processes in the global practice.

>From this point of view, the Armenian side has gained an advantage
which only needs to be used. In the meantime, the key issue is to
return the bodies of the crew of the downed helicopter.

http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33238#sthash.0jd9NnmD.dpuf

[Yervant1]

WHERE DOES RUSSIA STAND ON HELICOPTER SHOOT-DOWN?

EurasiaNet.org
Nov 18 2014

In Ukraine, Russia is widely seen as a troublemaker intent
on destabilizing the government in Kyiv. But when it comes to
Nagorno-Karabakh, the longest current conflict in the Caucasus,
the Kremlin is expected to act as a force for restraint.

In the wake of a helicopter shoot-down incident on November 12,
the Karabakh conflict finds itself at a crossroads, in which the
potential for a return to full-scale warfare seems higher than at
any point since the signing of a 1994 ceasefire. Azerbaijani forces
downed the Armenian helicopter near the ceasefire line of contact,
where both countries' armed forces remain on high alert, and where
gunfire exchanges regularly occur.

A widely held belief among Azerbaijani policymakers and political
analysts is that Russia will be an important, perhaps even decisive,
factor in what happens next. They note that Moscow is Armenia's chief
strategic ally and economic patron.

Elkhan Shahinoglu, head of Baku's Atlas Research Center, is among
those who think the Kremlin will exert a moderating influence on
the Armenian government. "Perhaps Armenia will want to respond to
this incident. However, the final decision will be up to Moscow,
as always," Shahinoglu predicted.

With the Kremlin embroiled in the Ukrainian conflict, and with
Western sanctions taking a steep toll on the Russian economy, it is
likely President Vladimir Putin wants relative calm in the Caucasus,
experts in Baku believe. "Considering the challenges Moscow is facing
in Ukraine and tensions with the West, I do not expect Moscow will
want to open a new front here, too," Shahinoglu said.

Arastun Orujlu, director of the East-West Research Center, said
Russia's geopolitical interest in the Caucasus is the maintenance of
the status quo, i.e. a "frozen conflict" in which neither side had
the upper hand in Karabakh. "Russia sees frozen conflicts as the main
support for its existence in the region," Orujlu said.

Azerbaijani officials remain defiant and unapologetic over the
shoot-down, in which the three-man Armenian air crew died. Casting
the incident as an act of self-defense, the Azerbaijani high command
awarded a medal to the officer who ordered the attack. Baku maintains
the helicopter was probing Azerbaijani defenses along the frontline,
while Armenian officials insist it was on a routine training mission.

"Azerbaijan only wanted to let Armenia know that they should respect
our borders," commented Uzeyir Jafarov, a military affairs journalist.

Jafarov pointed out that two Armenian helicopters were probing the
frontline on November 12, and that if Azerbaijani forces were intent
on provoking the revival of a full-scale conflict, they would have
downed the second helicopter.

Some experts suggested the incident is connected to a desire by
some officials in Baku to test Moscow's mood. Azerbaijan and Russia
have long had a prickly relationship: not only has Moscow's special
relationship with Yerevan been a source of tension in Baku, but Russia
and Azerbaijan have also wrangled over energy export-related issues,
including competing pipeline routes.

The Euromaidan upheaval in Ukraine, however, has brought Russia and
Azerbaijan closer together. Seeking to keep the Euromaidan spirit from
seeping into their own countries, both Moscow and Baku have carried
out far-reaching crackdowns on all forms of free expression this year.

And these days, international observers see Putin's administration
as philosophically simpatico with President Ilham Aliyev's government
in Baku.

Orujlu is among those who wonder whether the shoot-down was Baku's way
of gauging Moscow's true feelings toward Baku. "It might be a little
intelligence operation by Azerbaijan, seeking to find out the reaction
of Russia [to such actions], given that Moscow has challenges in
Ukraine and a closer relationship [now] with Azerbaijan," Orujlu said.

Ultimately, no matter what happens in Moscow, Azerbaijan is ready for
any contingency, said Shahinoglu. "If Armenia decides to respond,
Azerbaijan will not step back and it will lead to a new war,"
Shahinoglu said.

http://www.eurasianet.org/node/70981