Negotiations and settlment

[Berj]

Top Russian diplomat rules out early Artsax settlement

 

ITAR TASS

 

BAKU, 15 May: A meeting of the "Caucasus four" will be held in early June in

Minsk within the framework of a summit of the Commonwealth of Independent

States (CIS), Russian First Deputy Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Trubnikov

announced in Baku today. Trubnikov said meetings of the "Caucasus four" are

now held regularly.

 

The presidents of Russia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia have of late been

meeting twice a year. Their efforts have concentrated on achieving security

and stability in the region.

 

Commenting on statements by a number of Western politicians about the

possibility of settling the Nagornyy Artsax conflict by the end of 2001,

Trubnikov said that "not a single sober-minded politician would speak of a

specific timeframe for the conflict's solution". "This problem is quite old,

serious and complicated to be solved by a certain date. It requires thinking

over and working on," Trubnikov said...

[MJ]

Eurasianet Organization

May 16 2001

 

Leaders Need Majority Support in Compromise to Win Favor for

Nagorno-Artsax Peace Settlement - Expert

Jessica O'Brien: 5/16/01

 

In an Open Forum at the Open Society Institute on May 11, a month

since OSCE peace talks on Nagorno-Artsax were held in Key West,

U.S. Minsk Group co-chairman Carey Cavanaugh said "significant,

concrete progress was made in Florida" and the Presidents of Armenia

and Azerbaijan felt "closer to peace than ever before." According to

Cavanaugh, the greatest obstacle to a peaceful settlement is no

longer at the negotiating table.

 

"The people will have to be brought farther along by their leaders to

understand the need for a settlement and to be able to embrace the

settlement that may emerge from the peace process," said Ambassador

Cavanaugh. "I think that's the hardest challenge facing Presidents

Aliyev and Kocharian."

 

Years of negotiations have worn down the intransigent positions of

Armenian President Robert Kocharian and Azerbaijan President Heidar

Aliyev regarding Artsax, but the public has been isolated from the

evolving phases of the discussions, negotiations and, now, peace

talks between the presidents. As a result, says Cavanaugh of Aliyev

and Kocharian, "I think that they, themselves, are mentally in a

different place than their populations."

 

Kocharian and Aliyev have evolved an understanding of the fact that

great compromises are the essential and only means of diffusing a

situation that, status quo, leaves great room for renewed hostility

to develop and is of no benefit to either country. Still, with few

people privy to the negotiations that have been ongoing over this

frozen conflict, the loyalties of the people in Armenia and

Azerbaijan are more closely connected to the unbending terms that

sent these nations to war over Artsax in the first place.

 

Cavanaugh asserts that the peoples' resistance to compromise is not

an indication that they favor renewed conflict. "You tend to hear, in

Armenia and Azerbaijan, strong support for the idea of peace," he

said.

 

Ambassador Cavanaugh surmises that these unbending attitudes toward

compromise are at least a partial result of the secrecy surrounding

the negotiation process that has kept, and will continue to keep

people from growing used to the exact terms of a settlement as they

are established. Aliyev and Kocharian will only take their peace

package to the people once it is complete. Until then, its precise

terms will be known only to the parties and the mediation teams from

the U.S., France and Russia.

 

Cavanaugh defended the inevitability of secret peace talks with a nod

to the efforts by Barak and Arafat to offer great compromises in a

settlement that would resolve the longstanding conflict between

Israel and Palestine. "As those elements of a solution for the Middle

East became public they were ripped apart by oppositions who said,

`you cannot do this - you cannot divide Jerusalem, you cannot

compromise on the right of return - you cannot do this creative

solution on the Temple Mount'."

 

The terms of any single facet of compromise might unearth innumerable

religious, cultural and historical debates, and this could hinder

progress toward the ultimate goal of peace, obstructing a big picture

view. Encouraging long-term perspective, Cavanaugh pointed to the

increasing meaninglessness of borders between countries in Europe.

"France and Germany spent two great world wars fighting with one

another and now, if you want to drive from one to the other, you hop

in your car and you go." This would clearly take a very long time to

happen in Artsax, he said, but it was essential that the Azeri and

Armenian people be encouraged to have a future-forward perspective

that is not so bound up on particular aspects of the settlement.

 

Still, the secrecy of the process may effect the public's ultimate

acceptance of a peace settlement, and this is the ultimate paradox

facing Aliyev and Kocharian. "[The peace process] requires secrecy

but it complicates the very task I just spoke to before," says

Cavanaugh, indicating the need to gain slow public favor for

compromises that as yet remain unnamed. Aliyev and Kocharian have

been countering this problem by speaking with leading political

figures and members of their respective Parliaments in hopes of

spurring an informed public dialogue on the subject of a peace

settlement, and to spread the idea of the need for compromise.

Neither is reported to have firmed up a plan for selling a settlement

built on compromises to their people.

 

For myriad reasons, it is an opportune time for Aliyev and Kocharian

to introduce a peace settlement. These leaders are the beneficiaries

of a mediation process facilitated by a "seamless cooperation"

between the U.S., Russia and France; they are between election

periods; and there is, in Cavanaugh's words, "no competing crisis" on

the international scene at the present time.

 

Still, Cavanaugh would not set what he called an "artificial

deadline" on the peace process, as a partial peace settlement is in

many ways no peace settlement at all. "The dilemma in working peace

settlements is if you don't have the whole thing, in many ways you

don't have anything," he said, likening the process to the successful

construction of a bridge. Even if you have completed 80 or 90%, you

will fall into the water if you try to drive across it prematurely.

 

"Kocharian and Aliyev have made significant progress-- but it doesn't

mean they'll succeed," said Cavanaugh. The road ahead remains

difficult, but he is encouraged by their commitment and their

preparedness to make serious compromises to bring a new future to the

region and a far better life for their people.

http://groong.usc.edu/news/msg31728.html

[Berj]

AZERBAIJAN STRUGGLES FOR ENTIRE Artsax: FOREING MINISTER GULIYEV

 

Source:ANS

 

16.05.01--BAKU--The President of Azerbaijan Heydar Aliyev said during his meeting with the Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia, Vyacheslav Trubnikov that official Baku was satisfied with what Russia and other co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group were doing toward resolution of the Artsax conflict. Said Mr Aliyev: «But it’s important that this work gives practical results. Thoughts that some agreements will be signed in Geneva or later create great hopes among people.» The Russian deputy minister recommended not to hurry and be realistic. According to him, the parties must find solution not to «second-rate» issues but those being of more importance. Mr Trubnikov said one would deceive himself if believed the problems will be solved tomorrow. The Russian diplomat noted that the major problems to be solved are determination of the status of Lachin and Shusha, Azeri regions occupied by Armenia. But Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Vilayat Guliyev said no concrete city name was discussed during the talks. According to Mr Guliyev, «Azerbaijan struggles for the entire Artsax.» Mr Guliyev said it was unacceptable to divide Artsax into separate regions. It should also be noted that Armenian President Robert Kocharian announced that the peace agreement will be based on a package variant of adjustment of the conflict. But instead of saying «NO» to the package variant like he always did, the Azeri foreign minister said he felt difficulty with evaluation of those documents since he knew nothing of their contents.

By Etibar Mamedov

[MJ]

Interfax

20 May 2001

 

STEPANAKERT

 

Nikolay Gribkov, the Russian co-chairman of the OSCE's Minsk Group for a

Nagornyy Artsax settlement, believes that Artsax is "a major independent

factor".

 

"No stable or real settlement can be achieved without taking its interests

into account or, worse still, disregarding these interests," Gribkov told the

press on Saturday [19 May] during a visit by a Minsk Group delegation to

Nagornyy Artsax. "Whether the others like it or not, Artsax is a serious

party in the conflict."

 

Concerning the possibility of involving a representative of Nagornyy Artsax

in the talks between the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents, Gribkov said

that "this will happen by all means". He noted, though, that he cannot name

the exact date when this will happen.

 

"Taking into account the place where [Armenian President] Robert Kocharyan

was born, he represents the interests of Nagornyy Artsax, as well, during

his talks with Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev," he said.

 

Following his confidential talks with the parliament chairman, prime

minister, and foreign and defence ministers of breakaway Nagornyy Artsax,

Gribkov told journalists before his departure for Armenia that the talks were

useful for finding new solutions in the settlement process.

 

Earlier, the delegation of the Minsk Group had arrived in Nagornyy Artsax

and walked across the engagement line in the Agdam sector. Mines had been

removed from this sector before the delegation's arrival and laid again

afterwards.

 

The American co-chairman of the Minsk Group Carey Cavanaugh described this

fact as "rather interesting". Thus, the co-chairmen opened a symbolic path

for the peacekeepers, he said, adding that hopefully roads between Azerbaijan

and Nagornyy Artsax will be opened after the peace settlement.

[MJ]

MEDIATORS HOPE TO MEET WITH NKR PRESIDENT TODAY IN YEREVAN

 

Mediamax

21 May 2001

 

YEREVAN

 

The Russian co-chair of the OSCE Minsk group Nikolay Gribkov said the

mediators hope to meet with the NKR President Arkady Ghukasian today in

Yerevan. He is returning from a working visit in France.

Corespondent of Mediamax informed from NKR that Gribkov said the meetings

with the Chairman of National Assembly, Premier, Foreign and Defense

Ministers of NKR held on May 19 in Stepanakert were "efficient".

The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk group arrived in NKR on May 19. For the first

in the history of this conflict, they crossed the contiguity line of the NKR

and Azerbaijani armed forces on the road of Aghdam-Barda. Under the

observation of the OSCE representatives a mine clearing and demining of the

area was carried out. According to the American co-chair Carey Cavanaugh, the

observation of the line allows to hope that after a peace settlement is

achieved, the roads between Nagorno Artsax and Azerbaijan will be opened.

Nikolay Gribkov said that the arrival of the mediators in the region has also

a business aim. Besides the meetings in Baku, Stepanakert and Yerevan, the

co-chairs visit also the regions that must be reconstructed in case if a

peace settlement is achieved. "As far as there is a tense situation in the

Transcaucasus, there will hardly be a large inflow of investments," Gribkov

said.

The French co-chair of Minsk group Philippe de Suremain noted that the

mediators take interest in the public opinion of Nagorno Artsax, in order

to know what do the people think about the problem and its settlement.

"Everybody's interests must be taken into account, for not creating an

impression that we are working against one or the other party," he said.

[MJ]

Mediators say bitter public hurdle to Artsax peace

 

By Rosalind Russell

 

 

YEREVAN, May 21 (Reuters) - The people of Azerbaijan and Armenia are

ill-prepared for a peace deal to end their 13-year conflict over

Nagorno-Artsax and hardline public opinion may undermine efforts to reach

one, mediators said on Monday.

 

Leaders from both sides have been engaged in intensive negotiations towards a

comprehensive peace accord in recent months, but have done little to prepare

their people for compromise, the international mediators said.

 

"The people haven't got a lot of signals from the top that they have to start

thinking about reconciliation," U.S. mediator Carey Cavanaugh told Reuters at

the end of a two-day trip to the disputed territory.

 

"The leaders aren't sending positive messages that everyone has to accept

compromises if they want to live in peace."

 

Armenian President Robert Kocharyan said the reason for his relative silence

was that he did not want to build up the hopes of the population unduly.

 

"This is a sensitive issue and we don't want to arouse expectations that will

be difficult to satisfy, because then the disappointment will be greater," he

told reporters on Monday.

 

CONFLICT MORE THAN A DECADE OLD

 

The war over the rugged peaks of Nagorno-Artsax began in 1988 when its

mainly ethnic Armenian population tried to break away from Azeri rule as the

Soviet Union began to collapse.

 

Around 35,000 people died in the six years of fighting that ensued and at

least 800,000 people fled their homes. Armenian forces eventually inflicted a

humiliating defeat on the Azeri army and a truce was called in 1994.

 

Thousands of troops still face each other across the "Line of Control" which

separates opposing forces and hundreds of thousands of refugees remain

homeless.

 

Mediators believe they are closer than ever to a peace deal after Kocharyan

and Azeri President Haydar Aliyev held four days of negotiations last month

in the Florida resort of Key West.

 

The new U.S. administration has tried to breathe life into the flagging peace

process in the hope that a deal would allow a pipeline to carry oil from the

Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean.

 

But changing the mindsets of ordinary people, fed on a diet of belligerent

propaganda for more than a decade, is the final and most challenging hurdle,

the mediators say.

 

Officials from the United States, Russia and France made a whistle-stop tour

of Nagorno-Artsax at the weekend, crossing the Line of Control to take the

pulse of public opinion.

 

On both sides of the front line they met people who said they wanted peace,

but also called for vengeance.

 

In a sprawling refugee camp of tin-roofed shelters in Agcebedi in western

Azerbaijan, Azeri refugee Gani Kasumov said he wanted to return home to the

ancient Artsax town of Shusha.

 

"We have nothing here," said the 47-year-old economist. "We must go home --

through war if that must be."

 

STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE

 

In Shusha itself, perched high on grassy slopes above the Artsax capital

Stepanakert, Armenian refugees have taken over abandoned Azeri homes, but say

they are struggling to survive.

 

"Everything was taken from me, everything," said a tearful old woman who

lived in the Azeri capital Baku for 50 years.

 

The mediators have kept details of their proposal secret, but say both sides

must be prepared to make significant concessions for a peace deal which will

unlock millions of dollars of aid to the impoverished south Caucasus region.

 

"We are trying to make it a win-win solution," said one diplomat involved in

the negotiations under the auspices of the Organisation for Security and

Cooperation in Europe. "The problem is that that idea is anathema to the

mentality of this region where people think if you win, the other side must

lose."

 

Mediators say the next round of peace talks, scheduled to take place in

Geneva in mid-June, would be postponed while the two presidents prepare the

ground at home.

 

"There are some last minute jitters," said Cavanaugh. "Making concessions for

peace is a dangerous game. Many world leaders have paid for it with their

lives."

 

12:03 05-21-01

 

Copyright 2001 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.

[MJ]

Artsax NEGOTIATIONS GRIND TO A HALT ON THE GROUND

 

Armenian News Network / Groong

May 24, 2001

 

By Onnik Krikorian

 

YEREVAN, ARMENIA

 

 

Attempts by international mediators to end the decade-long conflict

between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno Karabagh looked less

likely to succeed after the three co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group

toured the region at the weekend. In the seven years since the

ceasefire agreement signed in May 1994, neither side has made any

appreciable attempt to promote reconciliation between its people.

According to Carey Cavanaugh, the US negotiator, the "missing link" in

following up reported progress in talks held between Armenian

President Robert Kocharian and his Azerbaijani counterpart Heidar

Aliyev in Key West last month remains public opinion at home.

 

The latest visit by the American, Russian and French co-chairs

illustrated to an accompanying group of foreign journalists the need

for lasting peace. After visiting refugees who fled their homes in

Aghdam eight years earlier, the delegation crossed into Karabagh from

Azerbaijan in an unprecedented move across the frontline. "It was an

extraordinary experience of traveling between two worlds," explains

Tom de Waal, a British journalist accompanying the delegation and

currently writing a book on the Karabagh conflict. "I've spent a lot

of time traveling between Karabagh and Azerbaijan, and it has taken

days to adjust, but suddenly we were moving between the two in just

five minutes."

 

Over the contact line that separates Karabagh from Azerbaijan, the

OSCE delegation then toured the now deserted town of Aghdam to show

journalists the destruction evident throughout. Despite the intact

mosque, Armenians in the disputed enclave have virtually stripped the

town bare. Earlier, the OSCE negotiators had attempted to persuade its

former inhabitants now living in refugee shelters in Agcebedi,

Azerbaijan, that peace would allow them to return, but journalists

instead found them unable to forgive and forget.

 

The same message came from encounters with Armenians from Baku and

Sumgait now living in Shushi, and in the northern Armenian town of

Spitak, the epicenter of the 1988 Earthquake and representative of why

peace might be beneficial to the ailing Armenian economy. "There was a

particular atmosphere to be found throughout the region," says de

Waal. "People were quite emotional and besieged the three co-chairs

with their problems. On both sides, they asked the negotiators for

compensation, but a lot of contradictory messages were coming from

these people."

 

Despite belief that the Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents are

genuine in their attempts to reach a mutually acceptable solution to

the conflict, recent statements from opposition groups in both

republics stating that compromise was unacceptable were borne out on

the ground. "No one has spoken to people about compromise or

friendship," continues de Waal. "Although they want peace, such ideas

haven't gone through their minds. They really only want peace on their

terms. In Azerbaijan, they want Karabagh returned as well as the

occupied territories, while in Armenia, people are unwilling to

compromise on its status."

 

However, many observers believe that both countries desperately need

peace in order to ensure future economic prosperity, and some even

believe that after Aliyev, there is the possibility that war could

break out again. In Armenia, lack of investment and high levels of

unemployment have resulted in emigration from the country believed to

be far in excess of that from other former soviet republics. However,

speaking to the Armenian President on Monday, he denied any direct

relationship between the conflict and poverty at home. "The conflict

has had a negative impact on the economy in the whole region, but

poverty exists in Armenia to the same extent as it does elsewhere in

the NIS. While the conflict deepens and complicates the issue,

emigration is more linked to problems encountered after independence."

 

Even so, there is no doubt that a solution to the conflict would help

both republics attract investment. At the recent Armenian Investment

Forum in New York, Cavanaugh was present to circumvent concerns that

peace might not come to fruition, but few have attempted to explain to

people living in Armenia and Azerbaijan that peace and stability might

yield positive results for them as well. "The argument that peace and

investment will help is correct," says David Stern, an AFP and

Financial Times correspondent based in Baku who also accompanied the

OSCE co-chairs. "However, I haven't heard anyone say that they need to

get this over with. At the moment what they're saying is what we have

and what we're being offered hasn't any guarantees. Karabagh or

prosperity? What prosperity?"

 

Therefore, if there is still a genuine attempt to find a solution to

the conflict, the two Presidents must now attempt to explain why peace

is important to their people. "This is a very sensitive issue," says

Kocharian. "We do not want people to be disappointed if there is no

settlement. If there were nothing in common however, it would be

pointless to talk. The most important thing is that peace will benefit

all parties to the conflict, and in the final solution, all three

sides should agree on compromise. The question is the definition of

that compromise, but lets just say that we hope that there won't be

too many more meetings before the final one."

 

However, despite the cautious optimism still evident in official

circles, that solution still looks far away, and the task of preparing

public opinion for mutual compromise will be difficult.

[MJ]

PROBABILITY OF WAR STRENGTHENING

By Farhad MAMMADOV

 

 

AZERBAIJAN

BULLETIN No:21 (275),

May 24 2001

 

Co-chairs return empty-handed from the trip to the region.

 

 

The trip of the OSCE Minsk Group's co-chairs to Baku and Yerevan that

has begun since May 18th has finished resultless. The main goal of the

visit was to prepare the next talks of the Azerbaijani and Armenian

presidents planned to be held in Geneva and at the first day of the

trip the co-chairs stated that they would try strengthening "the

important progress" gained at the Key West talks. It is notable that

co-chairs, concretely American co-chair Carry Cavanaugh was very

optimistic before the trip to the region and has several times given

statements expressing great hope for the settlement of the conflict

during this year. Even before the co-chairs' trip to the region, there

was spread news on being held of Geneva meeting on June 15 citing on

Mr. Cavanaugh.

 

But after their meetings in Baku and Yerevan, as well as in the

so-called "Nagorno Artsax Republic", the co-chairs stopped thinking

on gaining a peace in near future and left the region

empty-handed. And its reason is strong reaction of public opinion to

possible compromises both in Azerbaijan and Armenia. In the words of

Cavanaugh, the presidents- Heidar Aliev and Robert Kocharian go in the

forth of their nation by being ready to compromises. But the nations

are far from the idea of adopting the compromises.

 

Naturally, such a peace can not be firm. Mr. Cavanaugh himself

confirms it: "To go to concessions for the sake of peace is a

dangerous game". After the trip to the region co-chairs have come to

such an opinion that there is no use of holding the next stage of

talks without agreeing the parties with compromise. This is why, it is

not known when and whether the Geneva talks will take place.

 

In fact, the probability of breaking the Azerbaijani-Armenian talks

again was strong yet before the trip of co-chairs to the

region. Armenian president Kocharian has received the leaders of

fraction and groups at the Armenian parliament and informed them of

the course of talks after returning back from Key West talks. And a

week later after that meeting, fraction and group leaders of the

Armenian parliament issued a very aggressive statement and rejected

any compromise.

 

According to that statement, Upper Artsax either should be unified

to Armenia together with another 2 regions of Azerbaijan or get a

status of full independent state. Naturally, the Azerbaijani community

did not approach silently to becoming the territorial integrity and

sovereignty of the country to an object of compromise at the

talks. Major oppositional forces of the country, as well as the entire

public opinion regarded as impossible of abstaining from these two

principles and called Aliev to come out from this position at the

talks, as well. Generally, the method used by co-chairs for the

settlement of the conflict was wrong and over 7 years of history of

Artsax talks also confirms the impossibility of gaining any positive

progress by this method.

 

That method considers that the moderators while knowing Armenia is an

occupant party, do not pressure on him, and on the contrary, are

trying, indirectly, legalize the military successes of the

occupant. Having been lasting the resultless talks for many years and

Armenia's use of its military successes as a pressure increase the

probability of beginning the war again. Aliev himself has confirmed

it, as well. In his meeting with the representatives of the European

parliament on May 22, he has confirmed that there has increased

dissatisfaction in society with extending Artsax question and stated

that "the situation is very dangerous". At last, Aliev has admitted

that the impossibility of settling the Artsax conflict without

regarding the opinion of the community, as well as opposition. "If

Armenia does not go to compromise, then I can not do anything

alone. This is why, the probability of war will increase

time-by-time".

[MJ]

Azerbaijan News Service

May 29 2001

 

NO SECOND ARMENIAN STATE NEAR AZERI BORDERS: PRESIDENT ALIYEV

Source:ANS

 

29.05.01--BAKU--The Patriarch of Moscow and All Russia, Alexiy II was

received by President Heydar Aliyev on the Republic Day, Azerbaijan's

Independence Day. This caused the Russian Patriarch's special joy

which he expressed to the Azeri leader. Alexiy II presented President

Aliyev with Saint Daniel Order. After that, Russia's Ambassador to

Azerbaijan, Nikolai Ryabov passed to the head of the Azeri state

Russian President Vladimir Putin's congratulations on the occasion of

the Independence Day. Mr Aliyev rated the Russian Patriarch's first

ever visit to Azerbaijan as a momentous event. Touching upon historic

relations between Azerbaijan and Russia, the Azeri president noted

that although various religions exist in the world, the God is one

for all. As for the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, President Aliyev

noted that the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs suggested to solve the

problem between the two nations' presidents. But Mr Aliyev added that

one needs to take into account the fact that the two countries are

not on equal terms. Said the Azeri president: «The co-chairs insist

three proposals should be accepted. They demand to grant independent

status to Nagorno Artsax. There can't be a second Armenian state

near Azerbaijan. According to international law, UN and OSCE

principles, territorial integrity of any country is untouchable.

Armenians want our lands in Nagorno Artsax in exchange for those

occupied around this region. It will take 50 years to restore all

those occupied lands.» Reminding that he's been conducting meetings

with his Armenian counterpart since 1999, President Aliyev noted that

meetings of religious leaders sometimes have bigger impact in

solution of conflicts than those held between political leaders. The

Azeri leader also said a meeting of Azeri and Armenian religious

leaders was necessary at Patriarch Alexiy II's initiative.

 

By Natavan Babayeva

[MJ]

Artsax head says it should unite with Armenia or go independent

 

Russian news agency Interfax

29 May 2001

 

Stepanakert

 

The head of the unrecognized Nagornyy Artsax Republic Arkadiy Gukasyan, is

for the republic's participation in the talks on the future of Artsax, he

declared at a news conference in Stepanakert on Tuesday [29 May].

 

"The dialogue between the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan has brought

important elements into the settlement process, but today it is necessary to

include Nagornyy Artsax in the talks," he said.

 

He ruled out the submission of Nagornyy Artsax to Azerbaijan since that

variant, in his view, "would sooner or later cause the situation to explode".

The way to peace and stability lies through either recognizing the

independence of Nagornyy Artsax or uniting it with Armenia."

 

Gukasyan expressed doubts regarding the chances in signing an agreement on a

final settlement by the end of this year, as many questions, in his opinion,

have not been resolved.

[Berj]

AZG Daily #102 - 06/05/2001

Karabagh issue

 

RUSSIAN PLAN OF POPULATING SHUSHI WITH AZERIS WILL HURDLE KARABAGH

CONFLICT REGULATION

 

Armenia can't accept the idea of dividing Karabagh into communities

 

 

Karabagh conflict surely has four sides; Armenia and Azerbaijan as

conflict sides, and Karabagh and Karabagh's Azerbaijani community-

as interested sides. In 1991-92 this format was implemented", - said

OSCE Minsk group's Russian co-chairman Nickolay Gribkov to Armenian

and Azeri reporters in Minsk on May 31.

 

This announcement surprised and angered Armenian reporters who were

elucidating the CIS summit, and Azeris understood its implication as

a try to secure Russia's military presence in Azerbaijan and Karabagh.

Several times after Key West Peace Talks and on different levels official

Moscow hinted on both involving "Karabagh's Azeri community in the

negotiations as an interested side", and on populating Shushi with

Azerbaijanis. So, about ten days ago in Shushi the same Gribkov said

almost the same what he said in Minsk. And before that Russian deputy

foreign minister V. Trubnikov announced in Baku that the "issue of

returning Shushi to Azeris is important".

 

N. Gribkov is right: negotiations in the format of Armenia and Azerbaijan

being conflict sides and Karabagh and the so-called Karabagh's Azeri

community as interested sides already took place; but he forgot one

important element- they failed ã not registering any results neither

in negotiation process, nor in cease-fire issue. We'd like to remind

that the memorandum adopted in September 1991 by the mediation of Russian

and Kazakhstan presidents Eltsin and Nazarbayev, which presupposed

concluding cease-fire and lifting blockade imposed by Azerbaijan,

normalization

of Armenia-Azerbaijan relations, granting cultural autonomy to Karabagh,

was signed by Levon Ter-Petrosian, Mutalibov, Eltsin and Nazarbayev-

which was very unfavorable for Karabagh. In the negotiations the Karabagh

side (Leonard Petrosian and Robert Kocharian) didn't sign the memorandum-

reasoning that Armenia can't accept the idea of divide Karabagh into

communities.

 

It is important to pay attention to one thing here- the Karabagh side

didn't sign Jeleznovodsk memorandum when Karabagh was isolated by enemy,

there was no land communication with Armenia and Azeri forces captured

dozens of Armenian villages by the help of Russian weaponry. At present,

when Karabaghi army won brilliant victory in the war, official Stepanakert

will hardly negotiate with "Karabagh's Azeri community". It is

incomprehensible

how Russians imagine populating Shushi with Azeris. A question arises:

in case of populating Shushi with Azeris who is going to provide physical

security of Shushi's Armenians. Or maybe Russians want to divide the

city into Armenian and Azerbaijani parts? Today most part of Shushi's

5000 Armenians are those who escaped Sumgayit and Baku slaughters.

How can these people live side by side with yesterday's barbarians?

 

Russian plan of populating Shushi with Azeris will only make the regulation

of Karabagh conflict more difficult. It is not only unrealistic, but

is also full of unpredictable consequences. All this doesn't seem to

worry Moscow. The main thing is that the Russian plan is what Aliyev

wants. At present circumstances the primary thing for Russia is not

the regulation of Karabagh issue, but the buffing up of Russian-Azerbaijani

relations with Karabagh issue's speculation. South Caucasus is historically

the zone that interests Russia, and Moscow just can't keep this region

in the sphere of its influence- having good relations only with one

of the region's countries- Armenia.

 

The position of USA is also incomprehensible, which considers South

Caucasus a zone of its vital interests. OSCE Minsk group US co-chairman

Carey Cavanaugh says that peacekeeping forces must be located along

the Karabagh-Azerbaijani contact line. Karabagh-Azerbaijan armed conflict

ended seven years ago; there is no division line in Karabagh-Azerbaijani

conflict zone between the sides, the military equipment of the sides

is not withdrawn from there, and there are no international peace-keeping

forces. It is incomprehensible whom Carey Cavanaugh's peacekeeping

forces are going to protect. Maybe themselves? And isn't the location

of peacekeeping forces going to cause the re-launch of military action?

 

Nowhere in the world can the peacekeeping forces secure peace if the

conflict sides don't want it.

 

Russia and USA shall find out between themselves what they really want

ã before acting as mediators. In this case maybe it will be easier

to find the way of Karabagh conflict regulation.

 

By Tatoul Hagopian

 

 

*********************************************

Karabagh issue

 

 

STUPISHIN: THERE WAS NO STATE WITH NAME AZERBAIJAN BEFORE 1918

 

 

The ex-ambassador of Russia to Armenia Vladimir Stupishin, talking

about Karabagh conflict in a large article published in Russian

"Nizavisimaya

Gazeta" newspaper, writes that Karabaghi people built their own state

ã according to all international laws: "Karabagh people ground their

independence from Azerbaijan based on Soviet laws, which were severely

violated not by Karabaghis, but by Baku's politologists".

 

"It is not a secret, and Aliyev announced many times about Azerbaijan's

territorial claims to Armenia. Armenia doesn't present territorial

claims to Azerbaijan, although it can, and on legal basis, demand back

Nakhichevan, which was a part of Yerevan province, and was put under

guardianship of Azerbaijan by efforts of Bolsheviks and Kemalists.

There was not even smell of a state with a name Azerbaijan back at

the beginning of the 20-th century",- writes Stupishin.

 

In the opinion of ex-ambassador, the establishment of security in the

region is necessary for the West in order to draw Russia out of the

region under the name of communication and energy programs. "Why shall

we support those programs ã and especially at the expense of our Armenian

ally. Pax Americana is not a gift for Russia in South Caucasus- it

is going to work against our national and state interests",- says the

ex-ambassador.

 

"Did Russian diplomacy become so dull to fully back "small empire"

(i.e. Azerbaijan)? The latter received Karabagh from Bolsheviks in

1921. There can be or can not be territorial disputes between Armenia

and Azerbaijan, but they can't have any connection with Karabagh",-writes

Stupishin, concluding that "Karabagh never belonged to Turks, and it

came out of Azerbaijan ã violating neither Turks', nor Lezgis', nor

Talishis' and nor any other people's territories, who happened to be

in one artificial state union".

 

[ June 05, 2001: Message edited by: Berj ]

[MJ]

AZERBAIJANI POLITOLOGIST CONSIDERS IT NECESSARY TO COPE WITH

AMERICANS AND THEN PREPARE FOR WAR AGAINST ARMENIA

 

YEREVAN, JULY 10. ARMINFO. Americans like West Europeans

are absolutely unaware of the Artsax conflict, Ex-State Adviser,

politologist Vafa Guluzade said in his interview to the Zerkalo

newspaper.

 

The politologist said that the USA thinksa that Azerbaijan can easily

leave these territories to Armenia and that we must do it. The USA

must understand that Azerbaijan will never agree with unjust

settlement-scheme, even if it satisfies the interests of the White

House in oil, the politologist added. He said that such an attempt

will destabilize the situation in the whole region and endanger

America' interests.

 

Speaking of the "Cyprus settlement scheme," the politologist said

that its application to the Artsax conflict "would mean inclusion

of Artsax and Lachin into Armenia's territory and return of the

Azerbaijani 'minority,' which has become such due to the Soviet

authorities, to Nagorny Artsax." That is, he explained,

Azerbaijanis will receive an autonomy as part of Artsax and will be

included into Armenia. "There is no other understanding of the Cyprus

settlement-scheme," he said. Guluzade pointed out that only

liberation of the occupied territories and return of Artsax under

sovereignty of Azerbaijan is possible.

 

Guluzade said that Azerbaijan must either restore its sovereignty or

it will loose Artsax and Lachin forever for liberation of the six

regions.

 

He pointed out that "if a country part of whose territory is occupied

does not prepare for war, it is a criminal country." Azerbaijan must

prepare for war even more than the country which occupies its

territories, he said, adding that he means Russia and not Armenia.

"Armenia has no intention to return anything to us. We must increase

the public awareness of this idea, in order that everyone understands

that we must achieve justice by ourselves," the politologist said.-M-

[MJ]

9 July 2004, Volume 7, Number 27

RFE/RL Caucasus Report

 

FROM SIMMERING CONFLICT TO SIMMERING PEACE PROCESS. There must surely have

been moments over the past 12 years when the task of the Organization for

Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group seemed only marginally

less frustrating than that of a team of conservationist zoologists who,

having brought together in one cage two giant pandas from zoos at opposite

ends of the planet, find to their chagrin and consternation that even though

the survival of the species is in jeopardy, there is no way they can induce

the pair to mate.

 

That is not to deny that the Minsk Group has come very close on at least two

occasions to brokering a settlement acceptable to all three parties to the

conflict. In 1997, Azerbaijan agreed to a phased settlement of the conflict

that Armenia too accepted, albeit with reservations, while the unrecognized

Nagorno-Artsax Republic rejected it. But further negotiations on that

model for resolving the conflict were thwarted by the forced resignation in

February 1998 of then-Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrossian. Then in early

2001, the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan reportedly reached a

tentative oral consensus, which was apparently never committed to paper, and

which Azerbaijan's President Heidar Aliyev subsequently retreated from.

 

It is a truism that any number of factors can imperil attempts to reach a

political settlement of a decade-old conflict. At the most banal level,

personal antipathy between the mediators can inhibit progress. (In a 1991

interview with the German weekly "Die Zeit," then-Czechoslovak President

Vaclav Havel confessed to being "surprised and shocked" by the realization

of how great a role such personal sympathies or animosities play in

decisions that affect the lives of millions of people.) The fact that the

Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers have met three times between

mid-April and late June, and that a fourth meeting may take place in August,

suggests, though, that at present the negotiating process is not stalled by

the quirks of personal chemistry.

 

But to an even greater degree, the outcome of any peace progress is

inevitably hostage to domestic political considerations, specifically, the

willingness, or conversely the reluctance of national leaders to risk their

careers by agreeing to concessions that many voters consider not only

politically unacceptable but an insult to the memories of those who gave

their lives fighting. While success could be rewarded by a nomination for

the Nobel Peace Prize, failure, or even badly judged timing, can spell the

end of a political career -- as in the case of Ter-Petrossian. Azerbaijan's

current President Ilham Aliyev, who hopes to win a second presidential term

in 2008, has little incentive to undermine his chances of doing so by making

major concessions before then, and indeed has said on several occasions that

he will "never" do so.

 

The conflict sides and the OSCE Minsk Group have a gentlemen's agreement not

to divulge either specific proposals under discussion or the reactions of

one side to statements by the other. That insistence on the confidentiality

of the negotiating process is intended to preclude the leak of details that

could destroy a tenuous consensus reached in months or even years of talks

by provoking a domestic political backlash that might even endanger the

stability of one or other government. Although stage-managed, the

Azerbaijani parliament debate that followed the leak in February 2001 of

three successive Minsk Group draft peace proposals demonstrated the kind of

groundswell of anger and resentment that an unfavorable settlement could

unleash (see "RFE/RL Caucasus Report," 23 February 2001).

 

But the lack of detailed information also serves to engender any amount of

speculation, disinformation, and rumors concerning peace proposals that have

no formal status -- such as that by EU rapporteur Per Gahrton early this

year that Armenia withdraw its forces from five occupied Azerbaijani

districts in return for the resumption of rail communication between

Azerbaijan and Armenia. Deliberate disinformation can, nonetheless, serve a

useful purpose during long-drawn-out negotiations insofar as it may serve to

deflect attention from what is really on the negotiating table. Cautiously

worded statements by Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian and the Minsk

Group co-chairs following the most recent meeting between Oskanian and his

Azerbaijani counterpart Elmar Mammadyarov in Prague last month suggest that

the talks at present focus on ways to narrow the gap between the two sides'

preferred approaches. Since 1998, Armenia has insisted on a "package"

solution to the conflict that would address and resolve all disputed issues

in a single agreement, without leaving any "loose ends," even if the various

provisions of that agreement were implemented not simultaneously but

consecutively, over a period of time. Azerbaijan, by contrast, favors the

"step-by-step" approach under which a series of separate aspects of the

problem would be addressed and resolved one at a time, and the second

problem or set of problems would only be addressed after measures to

implement the first had been successfully completed. That approach would

theoretically enable Azerbaijan to demand a major concession from Armenia

(such as the withdrawal of Armenian forces from the regions which they

currently control bordering on the unrecognized Nagorno-Artsax Republic)

without making a concession of similar magnitude in return. That approach is

anathema to Yerevan, insofar as it entails the possible danger of Armenia

surrendering its biggest "bargaining chip" -- the occupied districts --

without securing in return what it considers most important, namely a

cast-iron agreement that Nagorno-Artsax should not be vertically

subordinated to the Azerbaijani central government.

 

RFE/RL's Armenian Service quoted Oskanian as saying on 17 May after his

meeting with Mammadyarov in Strasbourg that "the essence of the problem is

Nagorno-Artsax's status. Everything else is the consequence of the failure

to resolve that problem. So if we are to resolve the conflict, we must

concentrate on Nagorno-Artsax's status, rather than try to find solutions

to secondary issues, putting the main issue aside." Four weeks later,

Oskanian told RFE/RL's Armenian Service after his talks with Mammadyarov in

Prague on 21 June that the "nature of the ongoing talks is such that one

should really opt for a synthesis" of the Armenian and Azerbaijani

positions.

 

Speaking in Moscow on 24 June, Russian OSCE Minsk Group co-Chairman Yurii

Merzlyakov said that the co-chairs are drafting a new peace proposal that

would "allow us to synthesize incompatible things," meaning the diverging

approaches of the two sides. He predicted that "this is possible...if the

parties display goodwill."

 

Merzlyakov's disclosure suggests that there are indeed grounds for cautious

optimism that a solution to the conflict can be reached. But Mammadyarov

warned that it will take time: the Azerbaijani daily "Ekho" on 24 June

quoted him as comparing the negotiations to cooking, implying that for the

best results, neither process should be rushed. At the same time,

Mammadyarov expressed confidence that the final product will be both "tasty"

and "digestible" to everyone.

 

On 1 July, Oskanian said the Minsk Group co-chairs will travel to Yerevan,

Stepanakert, and Baku later in July, but will not bring a new peace

proposal, RFE/RL's Armenian Service reported. He added that "negotiations at

the level of presidents and foreign ministers have not yet reached a point

where the co-chairs have enough material to put something on paper." On 8

July, Armenian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamlet Gasparian said the

co-chairs will visit Yerevan on 12 July, Stepanakert on 13 July, and then

Baku, Noyan Tapan reported. (Liz Fuller)

[DominO123]

"if a country part of whose territory is occupied does not prepare for war, it is a criminal country."

 

Martin, correct me if I am wrong, but is this not the same person that proposed to have NATO bases in Baku?

[MJ]

"if a country part of whose territory is occupied does not prepare for war, it is a criminal country."

 

Martin, correct me if I am wrong, but is this not the same person that proposed to have NATO bases in Baku?

I don't know.

[DominO123]

Google answered me. Indeed he is the one proposing it... what a criminal he is for having proposed such a crime...

[Nakharar]

That criticism was probably meant for his own government. Meaning that inactivity on their behalf is tantamount to criminal behavior. No wonder he was replaced a short time afterwards.