IRAN BECOMES AN ACTIVE REGIONAL "PLAYER"

[MosJan]

IRAN BECOMES AN ACTIVE REGIONAL "PLAYER"

 

Last updated:

July 10, 2001

 

Several events attesting to the activation of Iranian role in the South Caucasian region in general and in the context of peace settlement of the Artsax conflict in particular happened during the last two weeks.

The statements of the Iranian Ambassador to Armenia Mohammad Farhad Koleyni, published in the end of June in the Yerevan newspaper "Aravot", marked the beginning of such activation. He said, "the OSCE Minsk Group is currently trying to find common grounds between the conflicting sides and to form a common public opinion." In fact, this was the first public statement of Teheran official on the subject of Artsax peace process after the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs announced their intention to begin regular consultations with Iran. It is Koleyni who is appointed the "contact person" at the consultations of the mediators with Teheran.

Another statement of the Iranian diplomat aroused still greater interest. Mohammad Farhad Koleyni said "one could confidently say that the issue of territorial swap between Armenia and Azerbaijan is not on the agenda". According to him, such a swap would restrict Armenia's relations with neighbors, which would contradict the national interests of Yerevan.

The subject of territorial swap, which aroused wild reaction in the Armenian society, was somewhat forgotten lately. This was probably caused by the fact that everyone, including the most furious opponents of the authorities, made certain that this variant was not on the table of negotiations anymore. Koleyni's words were taken as a "verdict" on the variant of territorial swap. Several Russian experts noted the "non-randomness" of such a statement on the part of the Iranian Ambassador. "Today, Iranians, on the whole, feel themselves in the region rather confident, which their open statements attest to," the director of the Center for Caucasian Researches (Moscow) Alexander Iskandarian said in the interview to CNA agency. In the opinion of the expert of the Moscow Center of Political Technologies, Boris Makarenko, with its statement the Iranian side first of all wanted to strike a blow to the authority of the United States. However, Makarenko believes the conduct of the Iranian ambassador to Yerevan was "at least unethical".

We will venture not to agree with the opinion of the Russian expert and turn to the prehistory of the decision taken about the "indirect" participation of Iran in the Artsax peace process. According to the evidence of Mediamax sources in the Yerevan diplomatic circles, it was the Armenian side to play a significant role in this, assuring the mediators in the necessity to hold a regular dialogue with Iran. It is but natural that taking this decision the co-chairs of the Minsk Group - Russia, the USA, and to some extent France, followed their objectives. Russia, as it is known, closely cooperates with Iran, which arouses the badly concealed dissatisfaction of the United States. The latter has no relations at all with Iran. Despite this, according to the reports of Azerbaijani mass media, the US Ambassador to Baku Ross Wilson said that the presence of the Iranian representative at the talks was "necessary". According to him, the broken off American-Iranian ties would not have a negative impact on the Artsax peace process.

It is interesting that Iran, the leaders of which over the last years consistently spoke against the participation of "outer forces" (first of all – the USA) in the settlement of regional security issues during the meetings with Yerevan officials, has recently softened its position. During the visit of the head of Armenian President's Office Artashes Toumanian and deputy foreign minister Ruben Shugarian to Teheran, held last week, the sides already spoke of the necessity of Iran's involvement in the settlement of regional security issues and didn't touch upon the subject of "outer forces" – in any case, the reports of official Teheran agency IRNA made no mention of it.

One can assume that Iran and the USA have come to certain compromises. The change of official Washington's position regarding the construction of Iran-Armenia gas pipeline, the final decision on which will be made this September, can serve an example of this. A year ago, the representatives of the US Department of State spoke with a direct text against the implementation of this project. Today, when the negotiations on the gas pipeline have reached a most active stage, the USA in no way displays its negative attitude toward the project. Iran's agreement in itself to take even an indirect participation in the Artsax peace process, where the USA's role is by no means the last, can attest to the certain softening of Teheran's position.

On June 28th, the meeting of the first deputy foreign minister of Russia V. Trubnikov and the Ambassador of Iran to Russia M. Safari took place in Moscow, the main highlight at which was the work of the OSCE Minsk Group. It is not by chance that the meeting was held right after the consultations of the mediators in Malta, where the decision to visit the region in July was taken.

After the Artsax peace talks in Key West, Philippe de Suremain, who until that time held the post of the ambassador to Teheran, was appointed the co-chairman of the Minsk Group from France. In May, de Suremain said in the interview to Mediamax that the mediators were going to inform the leadership of Iran about the course of the peace process so that they got assured that no "plot" was being hatched against Teheran. "We realize that the settlement of Artsax conflict must not harm any one. It seems to me Iran is the first interested in the establishment of stability in the region, taking into account the number of crisis zones around that country," the French diplomat noted.

Today, it is still difficult to judge - will Iran's participation bring to a progress in the Artsax peace process? Another thing is apparent though – today, Iran's relations with Armenia are on a much higher level than the ones with Azerbaijan. During the visit of the Armenian delegation to Teheran, an agreement was achieved to hold regular consultations between the foreign ministries of the two countries. The official visit of the Armenian President Robert Kocharian to Teheran will take place this fall, which, as his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Khatami is convinced, "will bring the Armenian-Iranian relations to a qualitatively new level and will promote the effective cooperation between the two countries within the framework of international organizations". It is relevant to remind you that the visit of Heydar Aliev to Iran was repeatedly being postponed in the course of the last years.

Armenian Foreign Minister says Yerevan appreciates it that "unlike Turkey, Iran had taken a neutral and balanced position throughout the whole Artsax peace process, which was certainly not easy". It was probably with the consideration of this fact that the Armenian side insisted on Iran's involvement in the peace process. If it is crowned with success, Armenia will actually become the inspirer of the first peace initiative, worked out with the participation of Washington and Teheran, which will surely weaken the possibility of a new polarization in the South Caucasus.

Analytical department of Mediamax news agency