US IS TRYING TO MAKE ARMENIA ITS ALLY IN THE REGION: TRUMAN NATIONAL S

[Yervant1]

US IS TRYING TO MAKE ARMENIA ITS ALLY IN THE REGION: TRUMAN NATIONAL SECURITY PROJECT

 

http://armenpress.am/eng/news/694161/us-is-trying-to-make-armenia-its-ally-in-the-region-truman-national-security-project.html

14:49, 25 September, 2012

 

YEREVAN, SEPTEMBER 25, ARMENPRESS: Most Americans wouldn't be shocked

to learn that the largest American embassy in the world is in Baghdad,

Iraq. But the second-largest is in a surprising place: Armenia. It

begs the question: why? The Truman Project's Daniel Gaynor studying US

foreign policy, energy security and democracy issues in the Caucasus

region came forth with the announcement, Armenpress reports.

 

"The best explanation is a real estate mantra: location, location,

location. Armenia, a landlocked country with just three million

people, might be in the roughest neighborhood in the world. But in

America's eyes, it might be in the most important position of any

US ally to advance President Obama's foreign policy agenda.What it

lacks in natural resources-it has little oil, gas or jewels-it makes

up for in geography. Few countries are in better position to shape

US foreign policy than Armenia.Armenia borders Turkey, Azerbaijan,

Georgia and Iran. As a part of the former Soviet Union, it relies

on nearby Russia extensively for trade and military backing. The US

has a significant stake in all five countries, and Armenia is now

coming into view as a potentially potent lever to advance American

aims.That is, if the Armenians can be won over.As the US tries

to woo Armenia to become a stronger ally in the region, the term

"geostrategic" has never been more apt. Armenia is literally at the

center of a number of countries that Washington considers among its

top priorities. As President Obama tries to accomplish key foreign

policy objectives-like preventing Iran from attaining nuclear bombs or

seeing democracy flourish in Russia-he's got to encourage Armenia to

play along.To Armenia's south, one such issue is unfolding in Iran's

nuclear centrifuges. Last week, a media skirmish between the US and

Israel boiled over when Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu,

stated publicly that America had no "moral right" to say whether or

not Israel could bomb Iran to prevent it from developing a nuclear

weapon. President Obama reportedly called Netanyahu at 3AM to quell

tensions.America is racing to develop every diplomatic pressure point

it can on Iran, lest Israel launch a preemptive attack and embroil

America in a third Middle East war in ten years. One of those pressure

points goes straight through Armenia.While the US has cut off formal

relations with Iran-Washington talks through Switzerland's embassy

there-it's no secret that it employs a variety of foreign policy

crowbars to influence and destabilize Iran's ruling regime. Some,

like President Obama's latest round of economic sanctions, are

well known. Partnering with Armenia is not, but could have a major

impact. Through economic and diplomatic incentives, the US is actively

trying to shape Armenia into an ally. As President Obama seeks to

economically isolate Iran-his sanctions have cut the value of Iran

currency in half-he is trying to regionally isolate the regime,

as well. Armenia is key to that strategy.For Armenia, the game is

far less simple. Partnering with the US-with whom it has a good,

but not great, relationship-could alienate the few friends Armenia

has left in the South Caucasus region. It wants military cooperation

with Russia, but economic access to the west.While it has tried to

deepen relations with the European Union and the US, Armenia's two

best friends at the moment are arguably the US's most challenging

adversaries: Russia and Iran.

 

That's not necessarily because of shared ideologies, or even shared

interests; it's because Armenia doesn't have many friends to pick

from.Of its four neighbors, two-Turkey and Azerbaijan- have have closed

off their borders to Armenia. To go on a road trip, every Armenian

must pass through either Tbilisi, Georgia or Tehran, Iran.Why the

frosty reception? Turkey, which the New York Times recently called

"the historic nemesis of the Armenians," is still steaming mad over

the negative PR associated with Armenian Genocide. The Turks claim

rogue military elements are responsible; Armenians believe the Turkish

government is reluctant to take the blame.In either interpretation,

the facts are stark: about 1.5 million Armenians perished in a war with

Turkey between 1915 and 1918. The Turks closed off its border in 1993,

and with it, a significant chunk of Armenia's economy disappeared. In

the decades since, Armenia has pressed for international recognition

of the genocide-and rightfully so-but that has only stoked the fire

with the Turks.But, while one would think that the genocide rift is

what led Turkey to close off its border, it's not. Instead, Turkey

is standing in solidarity with another neighbor over a contested

territory.Azerbaijan, another fromer Soviet republic, shut its borders

with Armenia after the two battled over an Armenian-populated enclave

in Azerbaijan, called Nagorno-Karabakh, in the 1990â~@²s. Today,

the territory remains a "semi-autonomous" area; meaning that the

Azeris want it back, the Armenians believe they control it, and the

Karabakhtis has declared independence (which no country has formally

recognized).Meanwhile, the relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan

is sliding downhill. Last week, Azerbaijan made a deal with Hungary

to extradite a convicted Azeri murderer. (The man, eight years ago,

nearly decapitated a sleeping Armenian serviceman with an axe at a

NATO-sponsored English class.) He was returned under the condition

that he would serve at least 25 more years in jail.Instead, as the

New York Times put it, he received "a new apartment, eight years

of back pay, a promotion to the rank of major and the status of a

national hero." Uproar in Armenia ensued. Armenia's President released

a statement warning, "The Armenians must not be underestimated. We

don't want a war, but if we have to, we will fight and win.Meanwhile,

Azerbaijan is enjoying the windfall from oil exports. Israel, in

particular, has strengthened relations with the Azeris, purchasing

30 percent of their oil from them, as well as selling them over $1.5

billion in military supplies. The US is also a buyer of Azeri oil. As

the New York Times points out, Azerbaijan invested more money in

its military than Armenia's entire state budget last year. Hardly

the sign of harmonious relations to come.So far, Armenia's walked

a diplomatic tightrope with skill. As my Lonely Planet travel book

explains, "Despite its limited resources, Armenia has become a master

at geopolitics.

 

What other country in the world can say it maintains good relations

with the US, Russia and Iran?Given the cards they're dealt, Armenia has

been a remarkable success story. If America hopes to engender greater

cooperation, it's got to sweeten the deal-through trade agreements,

offering economic reforms and encouraging private sector development

in Armenia. Armenia became independent in 1991. Two decades later,

it's still trying to find its footing in the region. It may not have

gold, oil, gas or jewels to give to the US. But, instead, it may have

something more useful: a strategic position in the most critical--and

potentially most dangerous--region in the world.

[gamavor]

What is the most polite and diplomatic way to show somebody middle finger?

[Yervant1]

What is the most polite and diplomatic way to show somebody middle finger?

You say you are my number # 1.