For Once, Aliyev May Be Right

[Yervant1]

For Once, Aliyev May Be Right

 

Opinion | August 16,

2012 10:22 am

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*By Edmond Y. Azadian*

 

Any objective analysis must seek a rational solution to intractable

problems. News media and some government agencies may become more alarmist

to dramatize certain critical situations. However, there are historic

moments where the distinction between rationality and alarmism is blurred.

That is the situation in Armenia today.

 

Recently, in this column, we quoted a statement from the president of

Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, which sounded a death knell for Armenia.

 

He specifically said that Armenia's population is dwindling while

Azerbaijan's armed forces are growing. `We can wait until Armenia's

population is reduced to one million and then we can take over its

territory,' he had said.

 

In that scenario, Azerbaijan does not need to use its recently-acquired

modern weaponry, estimated to be worth $1.6 billion. Nor does it need to

use the military drones supplied by Israel. Instead, the leadership in Baku

is counting on a waiting game which is working in its favor.

 

The situation is similar to the demise of the Soviet Union. The nuclear

arsenal of the US and all the western countries were unable to dismantle

the Soviet empire, but internal decay caused that seemingly impervious

empire to implode, without a single shot fired by the West.

 

In their unabashed statements, the Azeri leaders have claimed not only

Karabagh (or Artsakh) as part of their territory, but also the entire

territory of Armenia, as recently stated by President Aliyev himself,

characterizing Armenians as `recent settlers on Azerbaijani territory.'

 

Any student of history can turn the tables and state as a historic fact

that the opposite claim has historical veracity, that in fact, Azeris are

the recent settlers in the region.

 

Aliyev is not the only leader entertaining such dreams; before him, another

president, Abulfez Elchibey, threatened to occupy Armenia, wash his feet in

Lake Sevan and drink tea on its shores. Incidentally, he also threatened to

occupy `northern Azerbaijan' in Iran and annex it to the modern Republic of

Azerbaijan.

 

If during Elchibey's administration such designs were dismissed as pipe

dreams, today they have become - and must become - serious issues of

concern.

 

The fact is Armenia is being depopulated and Aliyev's waiting-game policy

can no longer be considered a far-fetched plan. For two decades, the

Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), as well as

regional and major governments, have been negotiating to find a solution to

the Karabagh conflict. (Actually, they are spinning their wheels.) The fact

that no solution has been found indicates that it is not in the interests

of the parties involved to solve the problem. That keeps Karabagh's future

in limbo, with the population facing a paralyzing uncertainty. Even

Armenia's only strategic partner, Russia, has a policy of duplicity. During

the Soviet era, Moscow's foreign policy was driven by ideology. No more.

Today it is driven by interest, sometimes marked with ironies. For example,

the only Russian military base outside its territory is in Armenia,

ostensibly to defend Armenia against any perceived threat from Turkey. Yet

the foreign policy establishment in Moscow finds it perfectly compatible

with its policy to sell $100 million worth of weapons to Turkey.

 

The West is interested in winning over the Azeri leadership to have access

to that country's energy resources and to wean it away from Moscow. This

is

the same policy Britain exercised in 1919, trying to convince Armenians in

Karabagh to accept Azeri rule `temporarily,' until the status of the

territory was determined at the Paris Peace Conference. The Armenian

National Council of Karabagh refused the British diktat, risking the

destruction of the region by Sultanov's forces, a `governor' handpicked and

imposed on the locals by Britain.

 

The population in Armenia is dwindling and it certainly is not increasing

in Karabagh. Any solution to the Karabagh problem will surely include a

popular referendum on the status of the territory. Baku's leadership may

wait out and when Armenians lose the critical mass in the territory, they

may agree to a referendum, after having calculated the outcome.

 

Foreign investments in Armenia and Karabagh are very slow, hampering job

creation and economic recovery. The dysfunctional legal system also does

not encourage foreign investments. Even local oligarchs have moved some of

their businesses outside the country.

 

There are some bright spots and valiant undertakings in a rather gloomy

background. For example, recently a local benefactor, Levon Hayrabetyan,

financed the weddings of 700 couples in Karabagh, also pledging to set up

trust funds for children born out of those marriages. That was an

individual initiative, which can only go so far. A similar national program

must be adopted and implemented by both governments.

 

Another investor from the diaspora established a meat processing plant in

Karabagh, spending $1 million. When asked by a journalist what he would do

with his investment if we lose Karabagh, he responded: `I will not cry over

my one million, as I will have a bigger loss to cry about.'

 

These are acts of courage few and far in between. A more massive program is

needed to stop the hemorrhage and to put Armenia and Karabagh back on the

path towards revitalization.

 

Unfortunately, a rudderless diaspora is no help, either. We are fragmented

and trivialized like never before. Lay and religious leaders of national

prominence who commanded respect ironically disappeared from the scene just

when they were most needed, as Armenia attained independence.

 

There is a national emergency but we don't seem to feel a sense of urgency.

 

Armenia's depopulation will mean a catastrophe of historic magnitude. We

must not let Aliyev's design come true. We waited for six centuries to

finally have an independent homeland. Can we survive another six centuries

if we lose this opportunity?

 

In view of the gravity of this situation, all of our current priorities

pale and should thus receive corresponding importance; they lose their

significance completely should Armenia fail. This traumatic situation must

move all Armenians with a passion in order to stop the downfall. It is a

nightmarish prospect - and obsession will be forgiven in pursuit of a

solution.

 

We need to disprove Aliyev and all the enemies of Armenia. Is any one

listening?