The truth about Syria

[MosJan]

No word from Johannes ??

[Yervant1]

SYRIA WAR: CIVIL STRIFE TAKES TOLL ON MIDEAST COUNTRY'S ARMENIAN COMMUNITY

Region | 11.11.15 | 12:17

By Gayane Mkrtchyan
ArmeniaNow reporter

The four-year-long civil war in Syria has also left a mark on the
50,000-strong Armenian community of Aleppo, as a result of which
nearly half of the Armenians have left the city and the country,
others are concentrated in the north of the country and Damascus.

Syrian-Armenian historian Gevorg Yazchyan says that 15,000-17,000
Syrian Armenians came to Armenia, about the same number of them went
to Beirut, Lebanon, while others have moved to the north-east of the
country, the Kurdish-populated regions. According to the historian,
a significant part of those who left the country do not plan to return
to their birthplace at all, because they have lost everything they had
in Syria. However, there are also Syrian Armenians who are waiting for
visas to emigrate from Armenia and to settle down in other countries.

Referring to Armenians from Syria's Kessab, which became a target of
Islamist militants' attack last year, Yazchyan says that 40 percent
(about 1,000 people) of the Armenian population has returned to the
city, among whom, however, there are few young people because many
of them now serve in the Syrian army.

On March 21, 2014, terrorist groups crossed the Turkish border and
invaded Kessab and surrounding 12 villages, making the region one of
the hotspots of the Syrian war then. Only 87 days later, the Syrian
National Army managed to regain control of the area that has been
home to a large number of Armenians.

"The population in Kessab and Latakia has increased due to Armenians
from Aleppo, because today the condition in Kessab is comparatively
stable, although sounds of cannon fire can still be heard from the
surrounding hills. I also want to speak on the villages of Yakub and
Knie which are near Kessab, and there is little information about
them. These villages are also occupied and there are also people who
left those places and settled in Kessab," says the historian. "There
are Armenians in the regions of Kamishli and Al-Hasakeh where
Kurdish defense forces act. They have quite positive attitude towards
Armenians," he adds.

Yazchyan makes an interesting observation about Armenian craftsmen.

Most of them, crossing the border between the governmental forces
and rebel groups, pay a tax, and go to repair militants' equipment
and machinery.

"Sometimes warring parties have secret agreements. They say they are
well paid as there is a need for craftsmen there, and many Armenians
in Aleppo have no jobs, there are no basic products. The most serious
problem is water shortages. They have started to reuse old wells,
or the state army brings water to people," says the historian.

Up to 50 Armenian civilians have been killed in Syria, 10 soldiers
of Armenian origin were killed in action and another 50 Armenians
got wounded.

Referring to the actions of the Russian Air Force he says that
the positive effect is large enough. They use the right equipment,
while the Syrian army's ground operations' efficiency is quite low,
because there is a lot of desertion. Hezbollah, a Shi'a Islamist
militant group, helps them in ground operations.

"The Russian air forces and the Syrian army can get a lot of success,
but for the end of the war those masses should be offered a new
ideology that will fit their world outlook and religious ideas.

Western democracies will not work there. A pan-Arabian idea will not
convince people either. One needs new ideologies to eliminate those
groups," says Yazchyan.

http://armenianow.com/news/region/67708/armenia_syria_region_war_middle_east_kessab

[Yervant1]

PAYING THE PRICE FOR BEING CHRISTIAN: THE MASSACRE IN ARMENIAN-POPULATED KESSAB

12:38, 23 Nov 2015
Siranush Ghazanchyan

The Russian Insider presents a report on massacre in Kessab, a town
in Syria populated mostly by ethnic Armenians.

The reports says Damascus' jihadists crossed from over the Turkish
border to target civilians, launching mortar attacks in the town and
surrounding villages. Hundreds of families were forced to flee.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4YMGsUznFqU

http://www.armradio.am/en/2015/11/23/paying-the-price-for-being-christian-the-massacre-in-armenian-populated-kessab/

[MosJan]

https://youtu.be/8XAKlNOq7K0

[MosJan]

[MosJan]

is this going to be a turning point in Russia turkey relations ?


A Russian Su-24 fighter has been shot down in Syria, the Russian Defense Ministry said, adding the plane hadn’t violated Turkish airspace and was flying at an altitude of 6,000 meters.
“During the flight, the aircraft was flying within the borders of Syria, which was registered by objective monitoring data,” the ministry said, adding that the aircraft was "supposedly shot down from the ground.”

[MosJan]

[MosJan]

UPDATE: 3:54 a.m. EST -- The Russian Defense Ministry said that the plane that was shot down by Turkey over the Syrian border was a Russian Su-24 jet flying at an altitude of 6,000 meters.

"Su-24 of the Russian aviation group has crashed in the Syrian Arab Republic after alleged fire from the ground," the Russian defense ministry reportedly said Tuesday. The statement added that the plane, which was flying at an altitude of 19, 600 feet "stayed strictly within Syrian airspace," and that its pilots were able to eject the aircraft.

 

"The fate of the pilots is being determined...The circumstances of the plane's crash are under investigation," the statement said.

While Turkey insisted that it warned the Russian plane several times before shooting it down, Russian authorities said that the plane -- which was on a bombing mission in Syria -- had not violated the Turkish airspace, the Associated Press reported.

Turkey's Anadolu news agency tweeted an image of the plane saying it was shot down because the plane violated Turkish airspace. The agency added on Twitter that the Russian plane received 10 warnings in five minutes and that it was challenged by two F-16 jets.

 

 

http://www.ibtimes.com/russian-warplane-shot-down-turkey-near-syrian-border-alleged-airspace-violation-2197581

[MosJan]

Su-24 Down in Syria
November 24, 2015 Corporal Frisk 4 Comments

Earlier today a Russian Su-24 was shot down close to the Turkish-Syrian border. According to Turkish media, the unidentified plane was shot down in Turkish airspace, after repeated warnings (10 warnings over five minutes being quoted). Russian sources claim the aircraft was brought down in Syrian airspace, something which seems to be corroborated by the fact that it was later the rebels who showed pictures of the dead pilots.

An interesting piece of evidence that surfaced surprisingly fast was a purported radar track of the Turkish F-16 as well as the Russian Su-24. According to this track, the Su-24 overflew a salient, crossing approximately 2.5-3 km of Turkish territory. In practice, even if the plane flew at low speed, it would not have spent more time in Turkish airspace than 10-30 seconds. Even if the F-16 fired an AMRAAM (the usual weapon of choice for today’s F-16 pilots) the moment the Su-24 crossed the border, chances are it would have been back in Syria by the time the missile impacted. However, a more likely explanation is that Turkey is getting fed up by the Russian intrusions, and as they never manage to shoot down an intruder during the act, they instead opted to chase it down over the border.

Overflight

This brings up the question of Rules of Engagement, or ROE for short. These are a the rules set out by countries to govern their armed forces use of force, in this case the Turkish government/higher command stipulating when their fighters are allowed to fire air-to-air missiles. In western countries during peacetime the usual rule set is variations on theme of “use of force is allowed only if fired upon first, or if there are definite indications that the enemy is about to fire”. This has clearly not been the case here (the Su-24 can carry R-60 short-range missiles for self-defence, but I find it extremely hard to believe it would have tried to take on an F-16 in a fight), and even more interesting is a tweet alleging that the Turkish fighter had shot down an ‘unidentified’ intruder. Visual identification is more or less a pre-requisite for handling this kind of incidents, and not positively identifying your target prior to shooting it down could quite possibly be a violation of international rules (if the quote was indeed correct).

[MosJan]

 

https://corporalfrisk.wordpress.com/2015/11/24/su-24-down-in-syria/

[MosJan]

Russian defence ministry says its fighter jet downed in Syria - Interfax
Tue Nov 24 01:14:02 EST 2015 | Reuters
MOSCOW Nov 24 Russia's defence ministry said on Tuesday one of its fighter jets was downed in Syria, apparently after coming under fire from the ground, Interfax news agency reported. The Turkish military said it shot down a plane after it was repeatedly warned about violating Turkish airspace. But the Russian defence ministry said the Su-24 plane had not violated Turkish airspace. The ministry said the pilots of the jet had ejected and parachuted to the ground. (Reporting by Maria Kiselyova; wr..

[MosJan]

[MosJan]

[MosJan]

http://sputniknews.com/military/20151124/1030695406/mod-su-24-flight-path.html

 

http://cdn4.img.sputniknews.com/images/103069/53/1030695345.png

[MosJan]

Russian Defense Ministry demonstrates map of the Su-24M flight which ended in downing by Turkish F-16 jet. Russian MoD insists the jet didn’t violate Turkish airspace, while Ankara says the plane crossed into its territory for 17 seconds, leaked document indicates.

 

 

[MosJan]

 

Published on Nov 18, 2015

 

Russian Air Force jets carried out airstrikes against an oil refinery controlled by Islamic State in Syria on Wednesday and destroyed around 500 fuel tanker vehicles transporting illegal oil from Syria to Iraq. READ MORE: http://on.rt.com/6wxi

[Yervant1]

TURKEY'S POLITICAL GAMBLING A THREAT TO TURKEY, ENTIRE REGION - RUBEN SAFRASTYAN

19:07 â~@¢ 24.11.15
http://www.tert.am/en/news/2015/11/24/safrastyan/1854217

Consequences of Turkey's actions pose a threat to the region, Ruben
Safrastyan, Director of the institute of Oriental Studies, Armenian
National Academy of Sciences (ANAS), told Tert.am as he commented on
the incident with the downed Russian jet.

"Following Russian news media reports one can think that Russia is
avoiding escalation. But the fact of the Russia defense minister's
being in Egypt should be considered. Russia is now seeking to get as
much information as possible," the expert said.

Russia claims the jet was in Syria's airspace, while Turkey claims
they had repeatedly warned the pilots before downing the jet. The
sides are making mutually exclusive statements. Mr Safrastyan points
out a need to wait for the results and for the sides' positions.

This is evidence that Turkey's political gambling poses a threat to
Turkey itself and to the entire region.

"We are witnessing this threat turning into reality," Mr Safrastyan
said.

The Turkish-Syrian border is about 95-km-long, with the Syrian side
under the Islamic state's control. It is through that border that
the Islamic State has contacts with the rest of the world and it is
through that border that Turkey is selling oil to the Islamic State,
with a monthly income of US $40m.

"Turkey is actually helping the Islamic State and Turkic tribes
that are in the Islamic State ranks. And it is because of its own
political gambling that Turkey is now facing such a grave situation,"
Mr Safrastyan said.

The expert does not think Moscow will not make final decisions,
and Moscow will consider the fact that the Turkish gas program,
which had been suspended, is becoming a reality.

"The program had no chance to become a reality, but it is now more
realistic. It is importance for Russia, and it will take the fact
into account. On the other hand, I do not think Russia is a state to
forgive another state's jets downing its jet," Mr Safrastyan said.

[Yervant1]

TURKEY 'ENTERS INTO A WAR'...ON THE SIDE OF ISIL

© REUTERS/ Umit Bektas
POLITICS
20:12 24.11.2015(updated 20:22 24.11.2015) Get short URL
Topic:
Russian Su-24 Jet Downed Over Syria (29)
113570432

Turkey has entered the war on the side of the Islamic State, the
Vice President of the Italian Senate Roberto Calderoli said after a
Russian Su-24 jet was downed over Syria with an air-to-air missile
launched by a Turkish F-16 fighter.

© REUTERS/ SOCIAL MEDIA WEBSITE VIA REUTERS Siding With ISIL? Turkey
Spotted Dealing With Radical Islamists in Syria On Tuesday morning
a Russian Su-24 fighter jet crashed in Syria with two people
aboard. Ankara claims Turkish F-16s shot down the plane because it
violated the country's airspace. Contrary to Turkey's accusations,
Russian President Vladimir Putin said the aircraft was 0.6 miles away
from Turkey when it was shot down.

"Turkey has officially entered the war on the side of ISIL by downing
at the order of [President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan a Russian aircraft
which has participated in operations against Islamic terrorists in
Syria," the leading member of the Northern League (Lega Nord) Party
wrote on his Facebook page.

According to Calderoli, Turkey is a "'Trojan Horse' with which
assistance the Islamic fundamentalism would like to take a clear shot
at the West."

"Why is Turkey still in NATO after what happened? What else can be
expected of the UN apart from taking a strong stand on ISIL and its
allies?" Calderoli wondered.

The politician has also criticized Rome's official stance.

"The Government [of Matteo Renzi] is on the wrong side with [German
Chancellor Angela] Merkel, instead of taking the side of Putin in
this war to defend our values, our freedom and our traditions,"
Calderoli wrote.

Read more:
http://sputniknews.com/politics/20151124/1030680429/turkey-isil-war-su24.html#ixzz3sQyCjHgH

[Yervant1]

EXPERTS: RUSSO-TURKISH STANDOFF MAY HAVE INDIRECT IMPACT ON ARMENIA

Region | 25.11.15 | 14:03

Alina Nikoghosyan
ArmeniaNow intern

Russian-Turkish relations can indirectly affect Armenia, but everything
depends on how the sides will try to deal with the problem and how
they will respond to tensions, experts in Yerevan believe.

The tensions between Russia and Turkey reached their peak on November
24, when a Russian military plane participating in the anti-terrorist
operation in Syria was shot down by the Turkish air force.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the incident was a "stab in
the back" and that it will seriously affect Russian-Turkish relations.

"It is obvious that any serious military political process, situation,
development somehow affects the security of the whole region,
including neighboring regions," Turkey expert Levon Hovsepyan told
media on Wednesday.

"Armenian-Russian strategic partnership, the Russian military presence
in Armenia, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Azerbaijani-Russian
relations, the Georgian factor: all these factors will have an impact
on Armenia," he said.

He said it is too early to make evaluations and it is necessary to wait
and see what kind of involvement NATO and the United States will have.

Another Turkey expert Andranik Ispiryan, in his turn, said that
Azerbaijan has maintained a complete silence and Turkey should also
be concerned about that. He also referred to the growing anti-Turkish
sentiments in Russia and consequent greater support for the Armenian
cause.

"Turkey has already expressed concern that Russia will use the Armenian
factor," he said.

http://armenianow.com/news/region/68081/armenia_russia_turkey_plane_region

[Yervant1]

TURKISH GAMBIT: STRAINED RELATIONS BETWEEN MOSCOW, ANKARA TO IMPACT REGIONAL AFFAIRS

Analysis | 25.11.15 | 11:42

By Naira Hayrumyan
ArmeniaNow correspondent

Armenia may be involved in an emerging Russian-Turkish standoff in
the region in the wake of the November 24 incident in which Turkish
air forces shot down a Russian warplane engaged in an anti-terrorist
operation in Syria. But most analysts do not expect a full-blown
conflict between Russia and NATO member Turkey.

The shooting down of the plane sparked a new wave of anti-Turkish
rhetoric in Russia as relations between Moscow and Ankara dramatically
worsened on Tuesday. Experts believe that the South Caucasus will
feel the consequences of this spat.

Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a tough statement, saying that
the incident will have a serious impact on Russo-Turkish relations.

However, his spokesman Dmitry Peskov later clarified that the matter
did not concern a Russian military response. Nevertheless, the most
discussed topic today is whether the incident with the plane could
trigger a war between Turkey and Russia.

Analysts note that the two states do not have land borders and the
border only on the Black Sea. The "border" between Turkey and Russia
lies on the Armenian-Turkish frontier, which is often called the
"external border of the CIS" and is protected by Russian border guards.

Armenia hosts Russia's 102nd military base, which has an air
component. Russia and Armenia also intend to create a unified air
defense system.

History knows as many as 18 Russo-Turkish wars and each, as a rule,
ended in the division of land. Much of that land historically
belonged to Armenians and was populated by Armenians. Now much
of the historically Armenian land continues to be divided by the
Turkish-Russian agreements of 1921 - called the Moscow and Kars
treaties.

Many Russian experts believe that by shooting down the Russian plane,
Turkey tried to provoke Moscow's "spontaneous" action. However,
Turkey is a NATO member and actions against Turkey are equivalent to
aggression against NATO, something which Russia knows well.

Most likely, Moscow will limit its actions to cancellation of tourist
travels to Turkey (especially that it is not the best season for
holidaymaking now), ceasing of its military cooperation with Turkey
and anti-Turkish propaganda for internal use. Because in Moscow
they understand that a conflict with Turkey does not only mean a
conflict with NATO, but also the denunciation of earlier treaties,
and thus destabilization of the entire region of the South Caucasus
and southern Russia.

At the same time, analysts do not rule out the possibility that Turkey
will go further and will try to achieve at the international level
military sanctions against Russia, and, in particular, will seek the
withdrawal of its forces from Syria. The fact that U.S. President
Barack Obama has recognized Turkey's right to defend itself could
mean that Washington will support Ankara if it submit an application
to the United Nations.

Analysts also note that the Turks shot down the Russian plane on the
same day when finally the government bodies were formed in Turkey
after the November general elections. Turkish President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan regained his foothold in domestic politics and decided to go
for broke, Russian experts say. They expect new aggressive steps from
Turkey against Russia.

http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/68060/armenia_turkey_russia_syria_plane_pilot_shot_down_region

[Yervant1]

RUSSIA MAY CANCEL IMPORTANT PROJECTS WITH TURKEY: MEDVEDEV

14:35, 25 Nov 2015
Siranush Ghazanchyan

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said Nov. 25 that Russia may
consider cancelling some important joint projects with Turkey after
the downing of the Russian jet by Turkish F-16's near the Syrian
border on Nov. 24.

Turkish companies could lose Russian market share due to the incident,
Medvedev said in a statement published on the government website,
barring Turkish companies from the Russian market.

"The recklessly criminal actions by the Turkish authorities that shot
down a Russianaircraft have led to three consequences. The first is
a dangerous aggravation of Russian-NATO relations, which cannot be
justified by any rationale, including state border protection. Second,
Turkey has demonstrated by its actions that it is, in effect,
defending the ISIS [using an alternative acronym for the Islamic
State of Iraq and the Levant] terrorists, which is not surprising,
given the available information that certain Turkish officials have
direct financial interest in deliveries of oil products from ISIS-owned
facilities," Medvedev said.

Russia may even scrap big energy projects with Turkey, such as the
Turkey's first nuclear power plant for which Russia has been contracted
to build.

"And third, long-standing friendly relations between Russia and Turkey,
including economic and cultural relations, have been undermined. This
damage will be difficult to repair. The direct consequences are likely
to be the renunciation of a number of important joint projects and the
loss by Turkish companies of their positions in theRussian market,"
Medvedev added.

Turkey commissioned Russia's state-owned Rosatom in 2013 to build
four 1,200-megawatt reactors in a project worth $20 billion.

Russia and Turkey are also working on the Turkish Stream pipeline
project, an alternative to Russia's South Stream pipeline, which was to
transport gas to Europewithout crossing Ukraine. The South Stream plan
was dropped last year due to objections from the European Commission.

http://www.armradio.am/en/2015/11/25/russia-may-cancel-important-projects-with-turkey-medvedev/

[Yervant1]

S-400 WILL BE DEPLOYED AT SYRIAN AIRBASE HMEYMIM: RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTER

15:15, 25 Nov 2015
Siranush Ghazanchyan

Russia will deploy S-400 defense missile systems to Hmeymim airbase
in Syria, Russian Defense Minister Gen. Sergei Shoygu said Thursday,
Sputnik News reports.

Russia is deploying S-400 Triumf (NATO reporting name: SA-21 Growler)
next generation surface-to-air missile systems to the Hmeymim airbase
in Syria where the Russian Aerospace Forces group is stationed,
according to Russian Defense Minister Gen. Sergei Shoigu.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin agrees with the Defense Ministry's
proposal to deploy S-400 missile defense systems to the Syrian airbase.

"By the decision of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief S-400s will be
deployed to Hmeymim airbase in Syria to provide comprehensive air
defense," Shoigu said.

On Tuesday, Turkish F-16s shot down a Russian Su-24M Fencer bomber.

One of the pilots has been confirmed dead by Russian authorities,
shot by rebel ground units after ejecting. The other pilot has been
rescued and transported to the Hmeymim airbase Wednesday morning.

http://sputniknews.com/military/20151125/1030713024/russian-defense-missiles-syria-deployment.html

http://www.armradio.am/en/2015/11/25/s-400-will-be-deployed-at-syrian-airbase-hmeymim-russian-defense-minister/

[Yervant1]

DOWNING OF RUSSIAN SU-24 LOOKS LIKE A PLANNED PROVOCATION - LAVROV

Published time: 25 Nov, 2015 11:34Edited time: 25 Nov, 2015 12:52

http://on.rt.com/6xjg

Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov. © Iliya Pitalev /
Sputnik 40312 The downing of a Russian warplane in Syria by Turkey
appears to be a pre-planned provocation, the Russian Foreign Minister
said. Ankara failed to communicate with Russia over the incident,
he added.

TrendsRussian anti-terror op in Syria

LIVE UPDATES: Russian warplane shot down at Syria-Turkey border

"We have serious doubts that this act was unintentional. It looks very
much like a preplanned provocation," Lavrov said, citing Turkey's
failure to maintain proper communication with Russia, the abundance
of footage of the incident and other evidence.

Lavrov added that many Russian partners called the incident "an
obvious ambush."

Earlier in the day, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu slammed
Russia for "attacks on Turkmen" in Syria, which according to Ankara
preceded the incident with the downed Su-24.

The Russian FM said the region where the incident happened is not
just home to Turkmen people. There are also hundreds of foreign
fighters affiliated with known terrorist groups and elements of
their infrastructure such as weapons depots and command points there,
he said.

"I asked [Turkish FM CavuÅ~_oglu] whether Turkey's close attention to
this region, including the calls to create a buffer zone there, was
motivated by a desire to protect this infrastructure from destruction.

I didn't receive any reply to this question," Lavrov said.

READ MORE: Ankara defends ISIS, Turkish officials have financial
interest in oil trade with group - PM Medvedev

He added the downing of the Russian warplane occurred shortly after
a series of airstrikes on terrorist oil convoys and facilities by
the Russian Air Force. The incident "sheds new light" on the issue,
according to the Russian foreign minister.

The Russian diplomat criticized NATO for failing to express condolences
to Russia over the loss of its troops lives.

"Very strange statements were voiced after a NATO meeting called by the
Turks, which didn't express any regret or condolences and in effect
were aimed at covering up what the Turkish Air Force did yesterday,"
Lavrov said. "A similar reaction came from the European Union."

Lavrov reiterated the statements of the Russian Defense Ministry,
which denied Ankara's allegations that the Russian warplane had
violated Turkish airspace.

He added that even if Turkey's words were taken on face value,
its actions contradict its own position expressed in 2012, after
Syria took down a Turkish military plane. At the time, then-Prime
Minister Erdogan told the Turkish parliament that a short incursion
into another nation's airspace cannot justify an attack on it.

Russia's relations with Syria will change after the attack on the
Russian plane, Lavrov said, adding that Turkey, which is now calling
for dialogue, should have done more to communicate with Russia prior
to and right after the incident.

Moscow will measure its response to limit the harm done to Turkish
and Russian businessmen, who had nothing to do with the incident,
and would decide on a proper action, Lavrov said.

"We cannot fail to react to what happened. Not because we must
retaliate. It's just that there are too many issues in Turkey that pose
a direct terrorist threat to our citizens. And not only ours," he said.

Lavrov said after canceling his planned visit to Istanbul that Moscow
doesn't indent to send any senior officials to Turkey or receive any
senior Turkish officials. At the same time, phone channels remain open,
as evidenced by the call with Foreign Minister Mevlut CavuÅ~_oglu.

The Russian minister said there was a question of American involvement
in the downing of the Russian plane. According to his sources, the
US demands all members of the anti-IS coalition led by Washington,
who use US-made military aircraft, coordinate all deployments with
the US military.

"I wonder if this demand of the Americans covers... Turkey. If it
does, I wonder whether Turkey asked permission from the US to fly
its US-made planes and take down - let's say 'an unidentified' -
plane over Syrian territory," Lavrov said.

The senior Russian diplomat said the problems at the Turkish-Syrian
border could be solved by simply closing it, as suggested by French
President Francois Hollande during his meeting with US President
Barack Obama in Washington.

"President Hollande suggested measures to close the Turkish-Syrian
border to stop the flow of militants and finances to terrorists. It's
remarkable that President Obama didn't react to it. I believe it's a
good suggestion and that during the visit tomorrow President Hollande
will tell us details. We are prepared to consider these measures in
earnest. Many people say that sealing the border would effectively
eliminate the terrorist threat in Syria," Lavrov said.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCv3mRQLk1U

[Yervant1]

SHOOT DOWN OF RUSSIAN PLANE COULD 'FINISH' TURKEY'S ERDOGAN POLITICALLY

© AP Photo
POLITICS
16:24 25.11.2015(updated 16:55 25.11.2015) Get short URL
Topic:
Russian Su-24 Jet Downed Over Syria (74)
75109572

Turkey's downing of a Russian Su-24 over Syria has prompted geopolitics
experts to explore Russia's options for how to respond, and to make
predictions on how the incident will affect the political career
of President Recep Erdogan. According to Expert.ru analyst Gevorg
Mirzayan, things don't look so good for the Turkish leader.

On Tuesday, a pair of Turkish Air Force F-16s tailed a Russian
Su-24M bomber flying over northern Syria near the Turkish border,
eventually attacking and shooting it down. Ankara quickly alleged
that the plane had briefly flown into Turkish airspace, charges which
Moscow has denied.

After the plane was downed, one pilot -Lt. Col Oleg Peshkov, was
killed by armed militants as he parachuted to the ground. His co-pilot,
Cap. Konstantin Murahtin, was rescued and returned to Hmeymim Airbase
in Latakia. A second Russian serviceman, Naval Infantry soldier
Alexandr Pozynich, was killed in the course of the operation to rescue
the surviving pilot.

With Russian President Vladimir Putin calling the attack "a stab
in the back" and saying that Russia will be making use of "all
security options," experts have been contemplating what other steps,
both military and political, Russia might take to respond to the
provocation.

© AP PHOTO/ KREMLIN POOL Russia Will Use All Options to Enforce
Security After Downing Su-24 - Putin Gevorg Mirzayan, geopolitical
analyst at Russian business and analysis magazine Expert.ru, believes
that whatever steps it ends up taking, Moscow must respond to the
crisis "symmetrically."

To begin with, according to the expert, the issue of whether the
Su-24 had actually strayed into Turkish airspace, or remained on
Syrian territory throughout the incident, is secondary, and does not
give Ankara the justification to shoot down the plane. "Wherever
they occurred, Turkey's actions should be viewed as a diplomatic
provocation."

Mirzayan explained that the attack was "not just a demonstration
of the destruction of a Russian airplane by a NATO member; it is a
demonstration of destruction on the eve of a scheduled meeting of a
Russian-Turkish group on strategic dialogue, which was to be attended
by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov."

"Thus," the analyst explained, "Ankara has factually shown that it is
not counting on any dialogue with Moscow, and is actually changing
its vector of relations with Russia from one of cooperation to one
of confrontation. And this means that Russia must respond within the
framework of this confrontational logic."

In Mirzayan's view, the "most obvious response would be one which
is symmetrical. It is no secret that Turkish planes regularly enter
Syrian territory to bomb the Kurds. Perhaps it would be proper now
to see some of these aircraft falling out of the sky, shot down by
air defense facilities provided by Moscow, or even Russian fighters
charged with protecting Syrian airspace."

And, if Russia does not want to take the risks that this imposes,
the analyst notes, "it is possible, for instance, to transfer modern
Russian armaments to the Syrian Kurdish forces. These weapons would a)
create problems for the Turkish military operating in Syrian territory,
and may find themselves in the hands of the Turkish Kurds working
closely with their Syrian counterparts."

Then, according to Mirzayan, there is the economic option. With
Egypt effectively closed to Russian tourists following the downing of
the Russian Airbus over Sinai last month, Turkish businesses in the
tourism sector had hoped for increasing their incomes from Russian
tourists. Now, the analyst suggests, "it is possible that these hopes
will to evaporate into thin air, not unlike the smoke from the Turkish
missile which hit the Russian bomber."

Consequences for Erdogan

"It's obvious," according to the expert, that "Ankara understands
perfectly well the above-mentioned risks. Moreover, they are aware
of the strategic implications of the deterioration of relations
with Moscow."

Mirzayan points out that "with the exception of Azerbaijan, Russia is
presently Turkey's only neighbor with whom Ankara has if not friendly,
then at least 'normal' relations. The fruits of the policy of 'zero
problems with neighbors' were lost in the course of the Arab Spring,
and now Turkey is in a very difficult situation geopolitically."

"Relations with the EU have been spoiled, the Americans are ready
to support the Syrian Kurds (up to and including, according to some
experts, Ankara's nightmare scenario: the establishment of a Syrian
Kurdistan), relations with Syria are beat up, and Turkish-Iranian
relations have been ruined. In this situation," the expert notes,
"a conflict with Russia may mean real political isolation for Turkey,
and may very well lead to serious political consequences for the
president."

© MO RF Russian Cruiser Moskva Will Cover Air Groups in Syria With
Fort Air Defense "Thus," Mirzayan emphasizes, "it's obvious that
the main loser in this situation is not Vladimir Putin, but Recep
Erdogan. For this reason, it is possible to ponder that the downing
of the plane went ahead without the president's involvement."

"Yes, in recent years Erdogan has been prone to take such pompous
steps. Since the start of the Arab Spring, Turkish policy has often
been characterized by excessive emotion and impulsivity. Yes, he
has a very high opinion of himself, and was probably offended by the
incidents of Russian military aircraft flying over Turkish territory,
and by Russia's recent actions in Syria as a whole (including the
elimination of pro-Turkish opposition fighters, as well as the bombing
of trucks carrying oil from ISIL-controlled fields."

"However," the analyst explained, "Erdogan has never been characterized
as a man who is keen on his own political suicide.

Moreover, the long-standing conflict within the ruling AKP party
has never been a secret. Many respectable figures have voiced their
displeasure at the president, at his policies and his authoritarian
management style. It is possible that they deliberately staged this
provocation in order to put the president in a desperate situation,
forcing him into a corner."

Ultimately, Mirzayan suggests that "it is not so important whether
Erdogan personally gave the order to destroy the plane or not. The
president will doubtlessly take responsibility and insist that Turkey
was defending its airspace. For its part, Moscow will be forced to
react in a tough but symmetrical manner. And not just to 'punish'
Erdogan, but to demonstrate to everyone that one cannot shoot down
Russian military aircraft with impunity, under any circumstances,
and get away with it."

Read more:
http://sputniknews.com/politics/20151125/1030736863/shoot-down-su-24-political-consequences.html#ixzz3sW3Woh4n

[Yervant1]

HAYK DEMOYAN. TURKEY CLEARLY DEMONSTRATED THAT IT IS ON THE SIDE OF THE TERRORISTS

November 25 2015

"If we are looking from all angles, a quite serious incident has
occurred. This is truly an unprecedented incident. If earlier Turkey,
in a mediated way or not so actively, displaying itself as a military
force against Russia prior to the North Caucasus incident, starting
form the last decades of the last century until recent years, today,
the military opposing sides seem to be clear with this one action,"
said the Director of the Armenian Genocide Museum-Institute Hayk
Demoyan, in an interview with Aravot.am, referring to the downing of
the Russian Su-24 aircraft by Turkey today. In his opinion, this is a
hostile act and shows that there are opponents in both sides. "In this
case, one unit of the Russian Air Force is destroyed by the Turkish
side. It was preceded by Erdogan's statement that it will down any
object. After this incident, they continued to claim that they will
keep downing. In other words, Turkey admits that they have committed
a hostile act against the Russian military force." According to Mr.

Demoyan, Turkey made a dramatic escalation, which is proved by
the direct involvement of the Turkish ruling government both in
sponsoring the "Islamic state" terrorists group, supplying them and
receiving profit from this structure. "This is already definite. Of
course, it is surprising that the Russian side has responded to this
with restraint. It's true, clear assessments were made because with
this action, Turkey obviously showed that it is on the side of the
terrorists." Read more.

Ashot ISRAELYAN

Read more at: http://en.aravot.am/2015/11/25/173128/