SIAMESE TWINS

[khodja]

With the appointment of John Jamian as Executive Director of the Armenian Assembly the fusion is complete. The Armenian Assembly is now fused at the hip with the Bush Administration and the RNC (Republican National Committee). I am familiar with a frame-by-frame sequencing of the political career of John Jamian and that of his close political associates. These are all "dyed-in-the-wool" Republicans. I don't think that I have to ponder as to which "twin" will be making all the decisions as to where the twins will be "ambulating." I think the answer is obvious.

[Boghos]

What are you arguing for ? Instead of this not so veiled inferences, why don´t you state your case.

 

Armenians have never been able to choose sides very well. But that´s another story.

 

[ November 21, 2001: Message edited by: Boghos ]

[khodja]

I am arguing that interests of the Armenian-American elite, specifically those involved in business endeavors in Trebizond and elsewhere will take precedence over the interests of the common Armenian. A business "deal" between business magnates who are already close business asociates.

[Boghos]

Indeed. This is how capitalism works. It is a system where everybody benefits albeit promoting inequality. Armenians are not exempted from that. There is a big difference between understanding how societies are structured, and what mitigating structures can be put in place to make sure that everybody has more or less the same chances, and promoting a conspiracy theory sounding view.

 

I am not quite sure about what you mean by mentioning Trabzon. Please explain.

[MJ]

Err... I got to run.
If the "pie-in-the-sky" is supposed to be pan-Turkism, I doubt that the Turkish right is cherishing such dreams. However, understandably, there is a minority within the Turkish right which does.

[Boghos]

Trabzon is considered by the Laz as their historical capital, whatever that means. But there is an important Kurdih population in and around Trabzon.

 

A number of Kurdish political figures (that is turkish politicians of Kurdish origin...) were very much sympathetic to the idea of opening up the borders. Economic interests, naturally.

[ThornyRose]

No, the capital of the REAL (Lazuri-speaking) Laz is Arhavi!

[Juggernaut]

Interesting, this is the first time I have heard of Trabzon being considered turning into a free port. And although it would be a great aid in getting Armenian products to foreign markets, it would only be a half-measure. The real benefit to all trans-Caucasian countries (Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan) would be the establishment of a free-trade area involving the three countries. This would allow us much easier access to European and world markets (via Black Sea) as well as access to Central Asia (via Caspian). Realisticly speaking though this is not going to happen in the near future but I believe is a pre-condition to the economic prospering in our region.

[khodja]

For years Van Krikorian, Hrair Hovnanian and others have been trying to negotiate a port deal with the Turks at Trabzon.

[Boghos]

The Trabzon issue is quite a complex one, and it shouldn't be narrowed down to the Armenian-American elite looking after its interests only. If these interests are alligned with the RoA, for example, why not ?

[MJ]

Dear Boghos,

You are right. Trabizon was being considered for a Free Enterprise Zone. It would've benefited all the countries of the region, including Armenia (very much so). But first of all, the issue of Trabizon has been alive for very short period of time during the early years of the establishment of the Republic of Armenia. The possibility was killed by the Turkish side as something going against the Turkish interests.

Trabizon would have had strategic value for Armenia (don't want to exaggerate it due to potential availability of Batumi and Poti ports of Georgia).

I am always somewhat angered to see such serious issues ("selling out Armenian interests") demagogued, and the public being deliberately misinformed by people practicing partisan/political prostitution.

[ November 21, 2001: Message edited by: MJ ]

[Twilight Bark]

The project died due to Azeri objections. However, it would give Turkey an immense leverage over Armenia. Once Armenia got used to the easy access to the sea, it would be as dependent on Turkey as it once was on Azerbaijan/Georgia/Russia. The biggest strategic beneficiary would be Turkey, but it had to respect the Azeri opinion. There is no doubt that it would have been economically hugely beneficial to Armenia, though. Whether increased wealth and stopping of the outward migration would have translated into a strategic net positive is unknown. However, there is little doubt that Armenia would be a more pleasant place to live today. And that may be much more relevant to many of us.

[MJ]

TB,

 

I don’t think Azeris had much influence in this matter. The matter was sabotaged by the Turkish rights, as I remember. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan might’ve barked, as well. But Azerbaijan has never had neither influence nor has enjoyed respect in Turkish governmental circles, no matter what the Turkish government may have declared for PR purposes.

 

As far as Turkey’s potential leverage is concerned, I agree with you that reliance over one rout to access the sees would be not expedient for Armenia – even if it was not Turkey but some “friendly” country. However, the “rules of the game” where supposed to be part of the package. Batumy is another potentially Free Enterprise Zone. Just need Georgia establish tranquility over its Sovereign territory, and I think it would become a potential possibility.

 

I think that Armenia will and must opt for multiple routs. All that is to be systematically pursued.

[khodja]

Demogoguery?

 

You conservatives are the ULTIMATE experts in demagoguery in EVERY realm. Winning a Presidential election by using millions of the tax dollars of Americans to investigate a President's affair with an intern. I KNOW what goes on in Republican officials households, everything from affairs similar to Clinton's to much more potentially politically damaging revelations.

[Boghos]

I agree with Martin. The Turkish right was by far the most important objector. Moreover bear in mind that Trabzon is a very sensitive area for the Turks: it is not in the best economic condition and also heavily populated by Kurds.

 

TB says that Tureky's leverage over Armenia would be enormous but rightly points out that the standard of living would probably be higher. Indeed. Interdependency is inevitable. We are a small country, we need to play the game exceptionally well.

[Twilight Bark]

Well, OK. But the same Turkish right that MJ credits with killing the immediately relevant Trabzon project is somehow powerless when it comes to determining long-range "pie-in-the sky" ideals of the Turkish elite, according to MJ. It seems inconsistent. But I'll buy it; I'm easy.

As for Trabzon being populated with Kurds. Isn't it supposed to be a Laz town? Has the demographics changed so dramatically?