Azerbaijan: A doomed player in Karabakh game?

[Yervant1]

Azerbaijan: A doomed player in Karabakh game?

Fri, 11 Dec 2009 03:03:40 GMT

Press TV of Iran

 

By Tarâné Kaveh

 

It has been almost 21 years since the Republic of Azerbaijan and

Armenia engaged in an armed conflict over the 4400-square-kilometer

(1,700-square-mile) mountainous Karabakh region.

 

After six years of intensive fighting, about 20 percent of

Azerbaijan's land, including seven towns surrounding Karabakh, was

occupied; up to one million Azerbaijanis were displaced and some

40,000 people from both sides were killed.

 

The conflict, known as the Nagorno-Karabakh war, which broke out in

February 1988, ended in a ceasefire on May 16, 1994, but there has

been no agreement so far to turn the ceasefire into a permanent peace

treaty.

 

However, it appears that in the closing days of 2009, efforts have

increased to realize the long-awaited peace between the two neighbors.

 

Most of the activities in this respect have been made by the

Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk

Group, which was established in 1992 to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh

conflict. The OSCE Minsk Group is co-chaired by the United States,

France and Russia.

 

Among the efforts made to establish peace between the two parties

involved in the conflict were: The statement of the OSCE Minsk Group

co-chairmen at the G8 summit, two meetings between the presidents of

Armenia and Azerbaijan in Moscow at Russian mediation, the meeting

between the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Moldovan

capital of Chisinau, the meeting of the two leaders in Munich, the

meeting of the two countries' foreign ministers at the 17th OSCE

Ministerial Council in Athens which issued a statement stressing on

the need for the two sides to continue negotiations.

 

Although there has been a number of futile attempts by the OSCE Minsk

Group in this regard, new developments and equations have come to the

play this time around that make a distinction between the recent wave

of efforts and the previous proceedings. One distinction is that

formerly the OSCE Minsk Group was merely trying to manage the conflict

between Azerbaijan and Armenia, whereas this time it seems to be

attempting to actually establish peace.

 

Most analysts believe there is a mutual consent between the United

States and Russia, which is they both would prefer the Karabakh issue

resolved in favor of Armenia - in other words, they both want Karabakh

to officially become part of Armenia.

 

What is crystal clear is that after meetings between US President

Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Washington scraped

a plan to deploy an anti-missile defense system in Eastern Europe and

with the exception of the 2008 Caucasus conflict - after which the US

sided with Georgia - the two sides have seen eye to eye on issues

relating to the Caucasus region. Among such issues are normalization

of relations between Turkey and Armenia as well as Azerbaijan and

Armenia.

 

It remains to be seen whether there has been any secret agreement

between Moscow and Washington; however, the two powers seem to have

reached an understanding on major issues such as the Middle East,

Afghanistan, the Nabucco pipeline etc.

 

The Russia-Georgia war erupted on August 7, 2008 after Tbilisi

launched a major offensive against the independence-seeking province

of South Ossetia in a bid to take control of the region. Russia, the

main ally of South Ossetia, repelled the attack by sending in armed

convoys and military combat aircraft and drove deep into Georgia. Most

South Ossetians hold Russian citizenship.

 

Following the conflict the United States has deemed Georgia 'unsafe'

as a transit route for the Caspian Sea gas and is seeking to find

alternative energy routes in the South Caucasus.

 

Russia on the other hand, finds cooperation with the United States an

effective measure in safeguarding the achievements it made through war

with Georgia. These are examples of each side's motives for

maintaining cooperation with respect to the Caucasus region.

 

Members of the OSCE Minsk Group have hinted that they all support a

resolution to the Karabakh issue in favor of Armenia. Their financial

and political support for the self-proclaimed Karabakh Republic or

even supporting the separatist leaders in the region all point to that

direction.

 

It is true that the interests of the United States, France and Russia

have run counter to each other at different periods of time and in

different corners of the world. However, when it comes to the Karabakh

issue, it appears that all three are willing to ignore Azerbaijan's

claims on the region.

 

Therefore, one is left with no other option but to assume that the

OSCE Minsk Group's framework is based on persuading Azerbaijan to

submit to the so-called Madrid Principles.

 

Although there has been little transparency regarding the Madrid

Principles, unofficial reports suggest that the principles call for an

international peacekeeping force to be deployed in the region and call

for a referendum on the status of Karabakh - which is believed to

result in the region's eventual separation from Azerbaijan.

 

The OSCE Minsk Group has unsuccessfully made attempts to execute

similar plans in the past. However, back then the member states did

not share the same view on the manner in which the Karabakh issue

should be 'managed' nor did they - as former US state secretary Colin

Powell suggested - deem the public was ready for such a development.

 

Another factor taken into consideration is that Azerbaijan is

currently weaker than ever. A few years back, with high oil revenues

and high military funding, Baku was hinting at an imminent breakout of

another armed conflict in the region. The global financial meltdown

and falling oil prices, however, have proven problematic for

Azerbaijan.

 

Should the status quo continue Azerbaijan will be doomed to submit to

unfair terms of a Western-dictated peace treaty, which would only take

Armenian's interests into consideration.

 

Baku's only chance is to launch a full-throttle diplomatic campaign to

break away from the OSCE Minsk Group in its current form. Azerbaijan

can make progress through calling on the United Nations, the

Organization of Islamic Conference and neighboring countries like Iran

for their effective mediations on the Karabakh issue, which could in

turn rescue Baku from an impossible political situation.

[Yervant1]

If a war erupts it will be very short and costly for Baku.

 

 

 

War likely if Azerbaijani territorial integrity violated - minister

 

BAKU, December 12 (RIA Novosti)

 

A war between Azerbaijan and Armenia is inevitable should the two

sides fail to settle the Nagorny Karabakh conflict in favor of

Azerbaijan, the defense minister said Saturday.

 

"If the issue is not settled so that Azerbaijan's territorial

integrity is preserved, a war is inevitable," Safar Abiyev told

journalists.

 

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorny Karabakh

first erupted in 1988, when the mountainous region claimed

independence from Azerbaijan to join Armenia.

 

Over 30,000 people were reported dead on both sides between 1988 and

1994, and over 100 others died after a ceasefire was concluded in

1994, leaving Nagorny Karabakh in Armenian hands, but tensions between

Azerbaijan and Armenia have persisted.

 

The OSCE Minsk Group, comprising the United States, Russia and France,

is a mediator in the conflict.

[Armat]

The article is one persons view in fact Azerbaijan is currently trying to buy fighter jets from Pakistan which Chinese production mostly.We should not underestimate the opponent and be always combat ready.

She claims these orgs are biased towards Armenia is unfounded otherwise the conflict would of been solved long time ego.Does anyone really know Russian plans for the region? I doubt it.Russians are opportunist who*** and will side anyone who can be useful.We should not blindly assume Russian support.