Analysis of Madrid principles

[DominO123]

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A NON-SIMPLE DECISION

 

By David Petrosyan

 

July 20, 2009

 

 

In the morning of July 15, before the trip to the Spitak

earthquake zone President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan stated that no

documents on Nagorno Karabakh settlement would be signed at the

forthcoming meeting with the President of Azerbaijan in Moscow. This

statement by the President surprised a little part of the journalist

community. Nevertheless, the President was absolutely honest before

press. Indeed, no document was planned to be signed at the Moscow

meeting. Another thing was planned: Presidents of Azerbaijan and

Armenia Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan were to express to RF

President Dmitry Medvedev their final positions on their readiness to

sign the Madrid Principles of Nagorno Karabakh settlement, which are

called `basic' in a number of cases. If an agreement on signing that

document is received, most likely, the proper document will be signed

later, most probably, in solemn conditions, maybe in the presence of

high-ranking officials of mediator countries: Russia, U.S., and

France.

 

The essence of Madrid Principles is reduced to the following

points:

 

- i) returning of 5 out of 7 regions from the "security zone,"

under Azerbaijan's jurisdiction. These regions are under control of

the Nagorno Karabakh Republic (NKR) and Armenian military

subdivisions,

 

- ii) providing an interim status to Nagorno Karabakh, ensuring

its security and sovereignty,

 

- iii) preserving (the term "opening" is used in the text) a land

corridor between Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh,

 

- iv) [securing] Nagorno Karabakh's right to express a will of

legal nature on determination on its final status,

 

- v) right of all refugees and displaced persons to return to

places of their residence,

 

- vi) guarantee of international security envisaging peacekeeping

operations.

 

The NKR authorities mention that "..any attempts to return the

Nagorno Karabakh Republic to the past are not only counter-productive,

but are also fraught with the conflict escalation. A real progress at

the negotiations is only possible under complete participation of NKR

at all stages of the negotiations process. No agreement concerning the

interests, fate and future of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic can be

made without the participation of its people and leadership, which is

first of all responsible for its fate."

 

The response of governmental experts in Yerevan to this document

is expressed by the statement of Gagik Haroutiunian, the Director of

Noravank scientific-educational center, who supposed that the Madrid

Principles stipulate the fact that de facto Nagorno Karabakh is an

independent unit and should have a status of an independent state, be

it through a referendum or in another way, diplomatic or interstate.

The expert considered that the possibility of Azerbaijan's diplomacy

to manoeuvre is reduced considerably unlike the Armenian side, which

in some sense can be content with some points in the document, not all

of which are favorable and acceptable.

 

In the expert's opinion, there is also a problem with returning

territories, in particular, the issue of returning to Azerbaijan the

territories under control of the non-recognized Nagorno Karabakh

Republic is mentioned, yet the Karabakh territories currently being

under Azerbaijan's control are not mentioned. According to

Haroutiunian, the issue of refugees' return is not rendered more

clear, either. There are also serious problems with bringing in

peacekeeping forces and of their status.

 

The reaction of the expert community in Stepanakert in the person

of former Deputy Foreign Minister Masis Mayilian was briefly expressed

by the following points:

 

- i) return of 5 regions from the "security zone" under Baku's

jurisdiction will imply a violation of the NKR Constitution.

Withdrawal of Armenian troops from these territories will undermine

the military and food security of NKR. Among the principles, there is

no hint on more than 1000 sq/km territories of NKR controlled by

Azerbaijan at present,

 

- ii) giving an interim status to NKR is an attempt to limit NKR

sovereignty, to cast a doubt on its independent status, and to deprive

the republic of its own security system. What would really provide

NKR's security is recognition of NKR independence, which would give

Artsakh new possibilities for maintaining its own security, including

with political-diplomatic means,

 

- iii) the land communication between NKR and Armenia was

established as a result of operations in the first half of the

90-s. It is noteworthy that this principle is proposed in the

Principles as a concession to the Armenians,

 

- iv) NKR's legal status has been already determined on the basis

of a legally binding will on December 10, 1991 and was confirmed by

another referendum on adoption of NKR Constitution on December 10,

2006. Over the past 18 years NKR citizens have ten times expressed

their position in favor of an independent status of NKR,

 

- v) the principle of right of return of all internally displaced

persons and refugees can be discussed by all three sides after

recognition of the NKR independence by Azerbaijan. A positive moment

is use of the word "all" and not only Azeri refugees. It is not clear

how the security of the returning people can be provided,

 

- vi) in essence, NKR is suggested replacing its own existing

system of military security by the inefficient mechanism of "blue

helmets." It will result in an abrupt limitation of republic's

sovereignty. The circumstance that NKR sovereignty was not recognized

by the international community and the country is not represented at

the above mentioned structures can result in Karabakh's not having any

levers of influence on these forces. Under the circumstances a

possible withdrawal of peacekeeping forces will be radically contrary

to our national interests.

 

And in conclusion: "The published basic principles, in case of

their adoption and realization will inflict irreparable damage to the

national interests of NKR and the Republic of Armenia."

 

The response of Armenia's political forces to the Madrid

Principles is equivocal. Thus, functionaries of the Republican Party

of Armenia having a majority in the National Assembly are absolutely

convinced that the above mentioned document is beneficial for the

Armenian side and should be signed and realized. At that, this

position is expressed rather actively, if not to say aggressively.

 

In general, part of the Bargavach Hayastan (Prosperous Armenia)

party's leadership also spoke for Madrid Principles, but party's final

position, apparently, will be expressed later. Almost for sure,

Orinats Yerkir (Country of Law), ruling coalition's third party, will

also support the signing of the principles.

 

As to the opposition, the latter, in particular, ARFD organized

an All-Armenian Conference between July 10 to 11 in Stepanakert. The

final Resolution adopted at the conference exactly mentions

inadmissibility of the "basic principles" and demands not signing the

proposed document. The party intends to hold a series of actions to

hinder the signing of the document. At that, ARFD demands resignation

of ...Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian, that is, the executor of the

foreign political course, which is decided by President Serzh Sargsyan.

Meanwhile ARFD in this or that form supports ex-Foreign Minister

Vardan Oskanian, who bears a considerable responsibility for the whole

course of the negotiations process on settlement over 10 years and for

elaboration of Madrid Principles. Such a position of the party is

evidence that blaming ARFD for being pseudo-opposition has many

grounds. Party's critics assert that the party is as before connected

with President Serzh Sargsyan and therefore does not directly

criticize him on the most important issues of foreign and defence

policy. We will also remind that ARFD representatives continue heading

the profile parliamentary committees on foreign relations and

security.

 

Zharangutiun (Heritage) party's position is much stricter. The

party demands:

 

- excluding separate participation of RA officials in the

negotiations on Nagorno Karabakh settlement in any format, without

participation of the legally elected authorities of that country,

especially signing of any document. This must be in force always when

issues regarding exclusively NKR's competence are discussed.

 

- immediate launching of the process of NKR's recognition by the

Republic of Armenia (the party has been consistently putting forward

that demand since early 2008).

 

If President S. Sargsyan refuses to fulfill these demands,

Zharangutiun is going to demand Serzh Sargsyan's resignation and

holding of special presidential elections. At that, the party intended

to get an answer to its demands before S. Sargsyan's departure to

Moscow, that is, before July 17.

 

As to the Armenian National Congress (ANC), we will mention that

it has been demanding Armenian President's resignation since June 1 of

this year. ANC's criticism on Madrid Principles is, in particular, the

following:

 

- in essence, the introduced variant is not a "package" one, that

is, it does not correspond to the promises of the Armenian authorities

starting 1998,

 

- the provision on referendum was withdrawn from the agenda: it

was replaced by more indefinite formulations,

 

- a non-exact solution is given to the issue of land

communication between Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh, the issue of

determining the status of Lachin corridor,

 

- only return of refugees to the returned territories was

mentioned earlier (in the "stage-by-stage variant" rejected in 1998),

while now, their return to Nagorno Karabakh is also mentioned,

 

- the published settlement principles contain no word on raising

the blockade and opening the communications.

 

ANC supposes that this document is evidently not in favor of the

Armenian side and all concessions of Yerevan both in the issue of

Nagorno Karabakh settlement and normalization of the Armenian-Turkish

relations are connected with the fact that the Armenian authorities

have to make serious concessions to the international community

because of their low legitimacy level. ("... Serzh Sargsyan and the

robber regime headed by him made these concessions to retain their

power"). In ANC's opinion, there is only one way not to permit Serzh

Sargsyan to sign the fatal document: with the joint efforts of

population of Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh, as well as all concerned

political figures to demand immediate resignation of Serzh Sargsyan,

holding of special presidential and then parliamentary elections,

formation of a power enjoying people's confidence, which will have a

possibility to completely protect Armenian people's national interests

before the international community.

 

In this complicated situation RA President Serzh Sargsyan has to

make a final decision on the issue of signing Madrid Principles. It

is quite obvious that the decision will not be simple. We will also

mention that signing of Madrid Principles by S. Sargsyan without

participation of NKR representatives is a violation of the legal act

of July 5, 1992 adopted by the parliament of Armenia.

 

 

"The Noyan Tapan Highlights" N28, July, 2009

 

 

--

David Petrosyan is a political analyst in Yerevan, Armenia, and

writes a regular weekly column in Noyan Tapan. He also provides

weekly analyses to the Armenian service of SBS Radio in Australia,

and written for a variety of Russian language political newspapers.

[AK-47]

Never have I seen any country that won a war it did not start talk about concessions since the day the war ended.

[Z'areh]

The minute Armenian forces withdraw from the 5 regions the Azeri army is going to deploy its military hardware right up to the nose of line of contact.

If Alyiev is threatening today with war, he will then have more reasons to demand furthur concessions, this time looking down from the barrel of his newly reinforced guns.

 

The above article is heavily politicized in my opinion. He is criticizing everybody except Zharangutiun and the Armenian National Congress (ANC). It is naïve to think that only a small segment worked on the Madrid Principles. Everybody knew the contents of those documents when it was discussed first. I think the political mistake belongs to every group, call it immaturity. We kept repeating with a self-defeating conviction that "we won the war and that's that", and relied on the false notion that Russia will always defend our interests...Ooops we forgot about Oil and Gas pipelines and Russia's pursuit of its own immediate interests. Kocharian thought that selling every major heavy industry to the Russians for exchange of a so-called 100 million dollar debt will buy us favours, well that turned out to be a fiasco, ARF thought Kocharian was doing a great job...and now it is demanding Nalbandian's resignation for carrying out the policies set by Kocharian. ANC led by LTP is warning that the Madrid principles are not a "package" deal when Levon T Petrossian himself was pushing for "stage by stage" deal.

 

Finally, where were all these parties when Artsakh was pushed out of the negotiations after 1996 or '98? They just woke up and realized Stepanakert is not on the negotiating table?

 

That's laughable!

 

I have to say that we have proven that our leaders (all) so far failed to measure up against a superior international political maneuvers. Amateur or gambling-style of politicking would be a more appropriate description to define the (in)abilities of our leadership. Imagine leaving the fate of the nation at the hands of amateurs or gamblers.

 

Is Sarkisian betting on Aliyev's rejection of the Madrid principles???

 

 

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Edited July 24, 2009 by Z'areh