Borut Grgic at it again

[DominO123]

Borut Grigic Azerbaijani @ss licker is at it again.

 

 

The Atlantic Council

New Atlanticist

Policy And Analysis Blog

 

 

EU Must Intervene in Nagorno-Karabakh

Borut Grgic | June 16, 2009

STOCK - EU

 

It is now 17 years since Armenia and Azerbaijan began a full-scale war

over Nagorno-Karabakh, a south-western province of Azerbaijan. And it

is now 15 years since a ceasefire was agreed, with Armenian forces in

control of the territory. But it is a ceasefire that it is poorly

observed. There are regular shoot-outs across the line of contact,

regular explosions of mines, and more than 30,000 troops in

combat-ready mode.

 

The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is, then, far from frozen. Indeed,

Nagorno-Karabakh is probably a more dangerous frozen conflict' than

those in Moldova and Georgia. Both sides continue to compete in an

arms race, making the region the most heavily militarised in

Europe. Azerbaijan is currently spending $2 billion (1.4 bn) on

military procurement, which is more than the state budget of

Armenia. In both countries, the animosity is very evident, and

hate-full propaganda appears each day. Peace remains a distant

prospect, with the Minsk Group' talks being held under the aegis of

the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)

producing no visible results.

 

Leaders in Baku want Nagorno-Karabakh to remain in Azerbaijan and they

want Armenian troops to withdraw from the seven occupied

regions. Yerevan is asking for the right to self-determination. And

although the August 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia should have

demonstrated that war is a bad solution, Baku is growing increasingly

impatient with diplomatic efforts, which are producing no results.

 

A role for the EU

 

A war over Nagorno-Karabakh would have devastating regional

consequences. It would destroy the region's fragile stability and it

would undermine and seriously threaten the security of energy supplies

from the Caspian to the international markets, including the prospects

of the southern gas corridor connecting the EU gas market with Caspian

producers. Turkey and Russia might find themselves supporting opposing

sides, while Europe and the US would be hard pressed to intervene. The

price of a conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh would be extremely high for

the European Union, as it has been in the case of Georgia and so it is

surprising how little attention Europe is giving to the conflict.

 

While the EU is actively engaged in the breakaway Moldovan region of

Transdniester and now also in Georgia, through the Geneva process, it

has no direct role in Nagorno-Karabakh. Although there is an EU

Special Representative for the South Caucasus, Europe has taken a back

seat to the Minsk Group, where France has its own representative.

 

There is also a lack of knowledge about the conflict within EU

institutions and reluctance on the part of some member states to see

the EU become more deeply involved. At the same time, there is growing

recognition of the strategic importance of this region, not least in

terms of energy security and diversification the major pipelines from

the Caspian to the west are mere 15 km from the ceasefire line, and

several pumping stations are exposed and vulnerable to

attack. Furthermore, there is a good chance that, if hostilities

resumed, the EU would be asked to deal with the aftermath (as was the

case in Georgia last year). And, if a peace deal were struck, the EU

would be well placed to oversee the deal's implementation, given its

experience in other conflicts. It would therefore make sense for the

EU to stake out a greater role for itself now. Tasks for the EU

 

Firstly, the EU needs to integrate itself into the Minsk Group. If

Europe is to become the main implementer and guarantor of a peace

deal, Europe also needs to be a part of the deal-making process. That

means France will have to trade in its seat, and the new EU

representative in the Minsk Process would need a clear and strong

mandate, with room to negotiate on behalf of the twenty-seven member

states.

 

Secondly, Europe needs to decide whether it supports Azerbaijan's

territorial integrity or not. There will also come a time when

Brussels will have to ask the Armenian government to withdraw its

troops from the occupied territories, and use leverage including the

threat of suspending talks on a free-trade agreement and an

association agreement if Yerevan refuses. It is impossible, on the one

hand, to laud Azerbaijan as an indispensable strategic ally in the

quest to improve Europe's energy security while, on the other hand, to

fail to support Azerbaijan in its efforts to regain control over its

territory. Countless UN resolutions, NATO declarations and Council of

Europe positions have reaffirmed Azerbaijan's territorial integrity.

 

Finally, the EU's experience from the western Balkans can also be

relevant in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. Once the peace

framework is agreed, the EU could engage in de-mining projects, since

the region is one of the most heavily mined in the world; send a

mission to evaluate the security situation and damage on the ground in

the occupied territories; appoint a deputy to the Special

Representative who is a respected expert on the conflict trusted by

all sides and thereby able to facilitate contacts between the

communities of Nagorno-Karabakh and help identify solutions; bring

together youth groups to work on diverse projects such as restoring

historical monuments damaged during the war. The EU is also well

placed to take the lead in peacekeeping and reconstruction.

 

The EU's new Eastern Partnership cites as its goal stability, security

and prosperity in the Eastern Neighbourhood. Without the resolution of

the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict this will never be achievable and the

region will remain a ticking time bomb. Therefore the EU needs to show

that it has learned its lesson in Georgia and become an active

peacemaker in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

 

Borut Grgic is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic

Council. Amanda Akkoca is a policy analyst at the European Policy

Centre.This article previously appeared in European Voice as "Another

Peace Role for the EU."

 

http://acus.org/new_atlanticist/eu-must-in...agorno-karabakh

 

[Yervant1]

If you have deep pockets, he will lick yours too. Nothing new here same kind of people looking after the interests of the oil giants which allines with the interests of the baboonland.