Azeris Playing With Their Own Tail

[Aratta-Kingdom]

THEY WANT TO INVOLVE STEPANAKERT IN THE TALKS TO BLAME FOR THEIR FAILURE

 

KarabakhOpen

15-03-2007 10:21:49

 

After his recent meeting with Ilham Aliyev the French co-chair of

OSCE Minsk Group Bernard Fassier stated that the Karabakh issue may

be resolved this year. He made several other interesting statements.

 

First the French diplomat said Kosovo cannot be a precedent for

Karabakh, and perhaps for the first time he tried to explain why. He

said Kosovo is an internal problem of a country. In Karabakh, two

factors are present: the internal factor, "for some time Karabakh

was a sovereignty within Azerbaijan", and the external factor, the

conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. There is also a difference

in terms of deployment of the international force.

 

According to Davit Babayan, a political scientist, the attempt to

explain why Kosovo is not a precedent is commendable. However, he says

these points do not answer the question: will the independence of

the unrecognized countries be recognized? Apparently yes in Kosovo,

not in Karabakh. Fassier also gave lengthy explanations why the fast

return of the Azerbaijani refugees to Karabakh is impossible.

 

All this happened on the day when the first congress of the Azerbaijani

and Turkish organizations was held in Baku. The Azerbaijani president

Aliyev made several notable statements on this day. Particularly,

he said Armenia was built on the native land of Azerbaijan, and if

Armenia does not give up its present policy, it will stake its own

future. He also said Azerbaijan will never agree to lose Karabakh

and will return its land by all means.

 

"Mr. Fassier must have heard this. Moreover, he stated that the sooner

Karabakh joins the talks, the better, to keep the balance. Some time

ago this statement would be commendable but now the situation has

changed. The participation of Karabakh in the talks is not an end in

itself. The problem is how they will participate and how it will be

helpful to the settlement.

 

It is already clear to everyone that the Prague process is about

to die.

 

Even the defensive stance of Armenia is unable to overcome

revanchist and aggressive Azerbaijan. The only way to reanimate

the process is to involve Karabakh. However, even in this case the

process is doomed. Everybody believes now that the mechanisms on

the ground are not real. If at this point Karabakh joins the talks

and rejects the proposals, Azerbaijan, which is to blame for the

constant failure of the talks will blame Karabakh. So will do the

international organizations. This state of things is not favorable

for Karabakh. The Prague process is doomed. This does not imply the

end of the resolution. No. simply the talks should start anewm and

Karabakh should participate in them," Davit Babayan says.

 

 

 

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WHO NEEDS NEW CLASH BETWEEN ARMENIANS AND AZERBAIJANIS?

 

KarabakhOpen

14-03-2007 12:22:48

 

The French co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group Bernard Fassier confirmed

that the mediators do not put the return of the Azerbaijani refugees

at the basis of the settlement. According to Fassier, to start the

settlement from the issue of refugees is the same as to build a house

without a roof.

 

The Armenian side shares this opinion. A few days before the meeting

of the foreign ministers on March 14 in Geneva Vardan Oskanyan, the

Armenian minister of foreign affairs, said the issue of the refugees

should be the last issue to discuss.

 

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan vigorously urges this issue as a priority in

the settlement. It has every reason to do. First, during the talks a

referendum on the status of Karabakh is proposed to hold, and according

to the mediators, the people of Karabakh should decide. Consequently,

the more Azerbaijanis return to Karabakh by the time the referendum is

held, the better for Baku. Besides, Azerbaijan knows that the Armenian

refugees will not agree to return to their homes in Azerbaijan,

whereas they can always "persuade" their refugees (or non-refugees)

to go anywhere. They are keeping their refugees in tents for so many

years now! The impression is that the Azerbaijani refugees are not

living in their homeland but in a hostile country where nobody cares

for their problems.

 

Azerbaijan has yet another reason. In Baku they cannot understand that

the return of the Azerbaijanis said to be aggressive would inevitably

lead to clashes with the Armenians. An everyday fight may grow into a

bloody slaughter which will be impossible to stop. And nobody will

wish to stop it. Everyone who "wants" stability in the region at

any price will benefit if one of the sides slaughters the other,

they may even be "lucky" if the scared Armenian population leaves

the region. And all the problems will be solved at once.

 

Would the international community allow this happen? Would it support

Azerbaijan or Turkey which perpetrate a new bloodshed instead of

solving the problems of their compatriots? Will this question be

discussed on March 14 in Geneva? And will it lead to failure in

the talks?