Package Yet Step-by-step Solution To Karabakh Issu

[MosJan]

PACKAGE YET STEP-BY-STEP SOLUTION TO Artsax ISSUE

 

Why Aliyev Turns Skeptic? - Analysts Comment

 

The Foreign Affairs Ministry of Armenia responded to the last statement of Azerbaijani President on Saturday. Vartan Oskanian replied to the Azeri comprehension of Artsax regulation methodology, to "arming race" in the neighboring state and to aggressive and belligerent statements of Ilham Aliyev.

 

"Everybody is well aware, including the Azeris, that the status of Nagorno Artsax is primary in the Artsax regulation and it should be decided based on the right of people of Artsax on choosing its own destiny. Other issues - elimination of conflict aftereffects, return of territories and refugees - stem out of the primary one and will follow it. The package regulation, certainly, can be realized step by step, and we can and are ready to display flexibility", Armenian foreign minister told Armenpress.

 

What shall we understand from Oskanian's comment? Davit Babayan, political analyst from Stepanakert, voices his opinion: "This means that the conflicting sides come to an agreement, sign a peace treaty itemizing all necessary issues of regulation - status of Nagorno Artsax, territories under Artsax control, refugees, blockade etc. They settle secondary issues through step-by-step alternative. The package regulation is to be applied for the status of Artsax as recognition is of declarative character, i.e. Baku should recognize Artsax as part of Armenia or as a sovereign state. All other issues, demanding technical preparation and finances, can be settled gradually".

 

Stepan Safarian, expert at the Armenian Center for Strategic and National Research, thinks that Oskanian's approach suggests the following: reaching written agreement over all issues, including status, but informing the public about the phases and realizing them gradually in course of time. "In that case, Aliyev can avert serious problems with the public opinion on the threshold of parliamentary elections. Moreover, first steps regarding territories and refugees can be in favor of the Azeri society. Those issues will be settled once Azerbaijan agrees to present guarantees for the status of Artsax", Safarian says.

 

Armenian foreign minister explained earlier what he means by "flexibility". "We tend to document the right of self-determination of the people of Artsax and can be flexible as regards the time of the final materialization". This means that self-determination can be realized in 10-15 years, otherwise Azerbaijan may refuse the status that Yerevan and Stepanakert strive for, once getting Artsax-controlled territories.

 

"If we settle issues concerning conflict aftereffects without deciding the status of Artsax, then one of the sides may reject its obligations changing thus military-political situation", Babayan says.

 

A few days prior to Kazan meeting between Armenian and Azeri presidents, Ilham Aliyev displays skepticism over negotiation process. The Azeri President noted in particular that "he tends to peaceful regulation". "But, as you can see, there is no visible progress here. Therefore we should be ready to liberate our lands by force if needed. To do that, Azerbaijan has to be twice as powerful as Armenia", Aliyev said, pointing out that the Prague Process suggests step-by-step regulation and, regarding the status, Artsax can get the highest autonomy within Azerbaijan.

 

"Azerbaijan, as a rule, either picks at the Minsk group or expresses skepticism over the talks process whenever it fails to get what it wants. Regarding the Azeri definition or estimation of the Prague Process, they pose their wishes as reality", Oskanian told Armenpress.

 

Stepan Safarian explains the reason of Ilham Aliyev's skepticism: "Aliyev pleases Russia by hinting at the prospect of no soon regulation, especially when the immediate regulation is somehow connected with the prospect of locating US military bases in Azerbaijan, regarding which America expects Aliyev's reply (in an interview to News Week Aliyev stated that Azerbaijan "is no outpost to any country"). The Azeri President, in this regard, tries to make the US understand that it is not satisfied with current agreements and wants more for the price of "its agreement".

 

Besides, the expert thinks, Aliyev tries to demonstrate "his own rebellion" against the West's pressure in demanding Azerbaijan to hold democratic elections and in supporting the opposition.

 

Vartan Oskanian also noted in his comments that "the increase of Azerbaijan's military budget owing to dollars from oil does not give them much in essence". "Azerbaijan can neither attract us with oil, nor, even more so, frighten us. Armenia always has the capacity to counterbalance any military budget of Azerbaijan. In fact, the privilege of the Armenians is not in the military expenses or arming but in being just in their claim. Armenians believe in their righteousness in the Artsax issue and in case of a war will fight for their land and home - something that the Azeris did not do and will not do", Oskanian said.

 

By Tatoul Hakobian

 

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[MosJan]

Rice Hopeful About Crucial Armenian-Azeri Talks

 

 

http://www.armenialiberty.org/images/photo/Condie2.jpg

 

 

By Emil Danielyan

 

The United States underscored its hopes for a breakthrough in the Nagorno-Artsax peace process Thursday when Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice telephoned Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliev to discuss his upcoming crucial meeting with his Armenian counterpart.

 

In a statement cited by the Itar-Tass news agency, Aliev’s office quoted Rice as telling the Azerbaijani leader that she “attaches great importance” to the talks that are due to take place in the Russian city of Kazan on Saturday. She was reported to express hope that they will facilitate a peaceful resolution of the Artsax conflict, a key U.S. goal in the region. Aliev, according to his press service, said he has similar hopes.

 

U.S., Russian and French diplomats spearheading the negotiating process signaled last month that Aliev and President Robert Kocharian could clear the final hurdle to peace in Kazan. U.S. Undersecretary of State for Global Affairs Paula Dobriansky similarly noted on July 27 their meeting “can potentially be a turning point.”

 

Preparations for that meeting were discussed by the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers in Moscow on Tuesday and Wednesday. Vartan Oskanian and Elmar Mammadyarov sounded cautiously upbeat after their talks held in the presence of the mediating troika.

 

Speaking to RFE/RL, Mammadyarov did not deny that the parties have been discussing a peace deal that would enable the residents of Artsax to decide its status at a referendum

[MosJan]

THREAT OF REVOLUTION AND Artsax ISSUE MAKE ALIYEV TURN TO MOSCOW

 

Vartan Oskanian, foreign affairs minister of Armenia, and his Azeri counterpart, Elmar Mammediarov, held yesterday a meeting in Moscow, which was witnessed by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmen. "Within the frameworks of the Prague Process, the ministers discussed all elements of peaceful settlement of the conflict, some of which are supposed to top the agenda of Kazan meeting between Armenian and Azeri presidents this weekend. Discussions, already informal, continued at lunch with the participation of Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov", press service of RA Foreign Ministry informs.

 

Oskanian and Mammediarov had another informal meeting on August 23. According to Regnum agency, positions of the sides essentially disagree. Mammediarov said particularly after the meeting that "Artsax has to remain within the structure of Azerbaijan", adding that the sides try to come to some kind of agreement over these issues. The Azeri minister, who labeled the idea of a referendum to decide the status of Nagorno Artsax a provocation against Azerbaijan only a few weeks ago, stated in Moscow that the sides discuss the possibility of holding a referendum. "It's quite another matter how we will hold it", Mammediarov said.

 

Elmar Mammediarov also stated several days ago that Armenian and Azeri sides disagree over 7-9 issues. Ever since the mediators visited region in July, Baku has been skeptical over the expected "breakthrough" as the Kazan meeting approaches. In this regard, Russia is also doubtful, contrary to the US co-chair who is still moderately optimistic. It may happen that the Russian side is not interested in comprehensive and final regulation, as that will even more undermine its positions in South Caucasus.

 

This is, perhaps, the reason of noticeable thaw in Russian-Azeri relations. Ilham Aliyev, whose perception was one of a pro-Western only 1.5 year ago, has turned to the Moscow. Two factors the least - the Artsax issue and the threat of a velvet revolution - made the Azeri President reconsider his foreign policy priorities. This is, certainly, for the time being, as Ilham Aliyev sees the place of Azerbaijan in Euro-Atlantic structures, beside the USA.

 

In an interview to British Sky News, Aliyev stated that they are not planning to locate US military bases in Azerbaijan, nor they negotiate on this issue. He called such information rumors that often come about on purpose. Earlier, in an interview to News Week, Aliyev declared that Azerbaijan is no outpost to any state.

 

Suchlike statement may well aim to make the Americans understand that Baku is not satisfied with Washington's policy in Artsax issue. In his statements to Sky News Aliyev complained in effect of the international community, which urges Azerbaijan to keep back from "forcible liberation of territories that are under Armenian's occupation for over 10 years". Aliyev cannot be also satisfied with the statements of American officials about parliamentary election November 6. The US and European organizations threaten the Azeri President that another rigged election can turn into a real trial for Azerbaijan.

 

Only 2 years ago Azeri officials used to declare of their wish to join NATO but their voices have subsided recently. Saying Azerbaijan is no outpost Baku apparently means no outpost for the NATO or US forces. While paying a working visit to the US capital in early August, Elmar Mammediarov never spoke of Azerbaijan joining NATO. A few months ago when Donald Rumsfeld visited Baku, the Azeri President avoided to meet him and left for Pakistan.

 

From the point of view of tactics, Moscow's stance in Artsax issue is more acceptable for Aliyev today; President Putin describes it in the following way: there should be no winners and losers, Russia will exert no pressure on the sides. Positions of Russians and Azeris coincide in the issue of velvet revolutions either. Moscow's response is edgy to West-supported revolutions in post-soviet terrain, traditionally considered zone of Russian influence.

 

By Tatoul Hakobian

[DominO123]

In the mean time, Baku is trying to substitute itself from the negotiations, by a parallel attempt to settle the thing.

 

AZERI ELECTION BODY ASKS OSCE TO HELP GET LIST OF VOTERS IN Artsax

 

Lider TV, Baku

 

24 Aug 05

 

The Central Electoral Commission [CEC] has appealed to the OSCE for

assistance in acquiring a list of voters - Azerbaijani citizens of

Armenian origin - in Xankandi constituency No 122, Rovzat Qasimli,

head of the CEC's international relations department, has told APA.

 

Qasimli said the CEC stressed the importance of receiving the list

for holding the election in the aforesaid constituency.

 

During a meeting with Maurizio Pavesi, head of the OSCE office in Baku,

CEC chairman Mazahir Panahov also told him about this.

 

Qasimli said the CEC would make similar appeals to the OSCE Minsk

Group, the Council of Europe and other international organizations

as well. He said the process of making a list of Azerbaijani voters

in the constituency was continuing, adding that the voters would get

voter's cards after the process ends.

We can all see clear in this cheap trick.

Edited August 25, 2005 by QueBeceR

[DominO123]

Rovzat Qasimli, an Armenian name?

[hytga]

http://www.azg.am/IMAGE/200515002.jpg

http://www.azg.am/?lang=AR&num=2005082501

 

judging from the picture i think things aren't going well.

[Nakharar]

The Azeri guy looks pretty happy.

[MosJan]

PRESIDENTS GATHER IN TATARSTAN

 

Kocharian and Aliyev to Meet Today

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin stated during his March 25 visit to Yerevan that the CIS is "a useful club" and "a good arena for settling business issues," adding that one shouldn’t have too big expectations, otherwise the disappointment would be unavoidable. "If any state expects to achieve any goals in the spheres of economic, political or military cooperation, naturally, that will not happen, as could never have happened," Mr. Putin stated, adding that, "certainly, the CIS should be preserved."

 

The next meeting of the presidents of the CIS member countries is envisaged to take place in Tatarstan. This time they will discuss "suggestions directed to the improvement of the CIS structures, as well as the cooperation of the CIS states in the humanitarian sphere." Besides, the presidents will participate in the arrangements dedicated to 1000th anniversary of the country's capital Kazan.

 

This club of 12 former Soviet republics that undertook various political priorities has adopted about 3000 decrees during the past 15 years. Most of these decrees were not carried out. Moreover, in fact, Armenia and Azerbaijan, members of the same organization, are in war condition, while Georgia has deep contradictions with Russia. There are serious disagreement cases between Russia and Moldova, Georgia and Byelorussia, Ukraine and Russia, etc.

 

Anyway, the CIS summits are important for Armenia because the president can have a number of bilateral meetings with his colleagues. "The CIS is a good arena for settling business issues. We should be glad that we have such an arena, because the level and the volume of the cooperation between the countries are really big. There are always serious themes and issues for discussions and certain decisions. I meet with three of my colleagues, at least, during each of the CIS Summit. And these meetings are quite fruitful," RA President Robert Kocharian said at the joint press conference during Vladimir Putin’s last visit in Yerevan.

 

The CIS served the forum that enabled to hold dozens of meetings for the Armenian and the Azeri presidents. They are going to meet in Kazan, as well. This summit is important for Armenia, Nagorno Artsax and Azerbaijan for the very negotiations between Robert Kocharian and Ilham Aliyev. The meeting of the presidents is envisaged on August 27.

 

It’s worth reminding that Foreign Ministers Vartan Oskanian and Elmar Mamediarov have already discussed the current stage of Nagorno Artsax negotiations with the participation of the OSCE Minsk group co-chairs in Moscow, on August 24. If on the eve of the July visit of the co-chairs, the sides had rather optimistic expectations from the meeting of the presidents in Kazan, today they are skeptical. Anyway, the Azeri side sees no breakthrough in the negotiations.

 

By Tatoul Hakobian

[MosJan]

NO IMPASSE IN NKR SETTLEMENT

 

Vartan Oskanian, RA foreign minister, stated that "no breakthrough was fixed" in the meeting of the presidents in Kazan, but "the negotiations go on positively." "The meeting in Kazan creates a field for the meeting of the foreign ministers," he said. Oskanian added that there is no dead end in the process now, "one enters a dead end, when the presidents find no terms," while it didn’t happen. RA foreign minister didn’t connect the negotiation process with the parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan and the constitutional referendum in Armenia. "We are not in the stage when we can inform the publicity about the details. The sides are not apt to write down anything on the paper," Oskanian said.

 

By Tatoul Hakobian