Internal Instability

[Armen]

http://www.crisisweb.org/home/index.cfm?l=1&id=3076

 

Armenia: Internal Instability Ahead

 

Europe Report N°158

18 October 2004

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS

 

Armenia, which regained its independence in 1991 and won its 1992-1994 war with Azerbaijan, is at peace and rebuilding its economy but its stability is fragile. Nagorno-Artsax remains an unsettled problem that easily could reignite, and the regional economic isolation that the war over it produced could become permanent if there is no resolution soon. Corruption and violations of democratic procedure have disillusioned a population half of which still lives below the poverty line. Armenia's friends in the West and in Russia need to work together to help it overcome old enmities with Azerbaijan and Turkey. Donors should do more to press for democratic reforms and good governance.

 

The past two decades have been turbulent. In 1988 a disastrous earthquake rocked the north of the country, killing at least 25,000 and affecting one third of the population. The collapse of the Soviet Union destroyed traditional economic ties and social texture and was followed immediately by the war over Nagorno-Artsax. Ten years later the country is at peace and busy rebuilding its economy, though the legacy of the conflict and significant sources of insecurity remain.

 

The May 1994 ceasefire that ended the war marked a military victory for Armenian forces, but there is no real peace. There are no mechanisms on the ground to prevent the conflict from restarting, and the negotiation process is stalled. Now that Azerbaijan is drawing significant dividends from its oil industry and developing military partnerships with, among others, the U.S., Turkey and Pakistan, there is a temptation among certain forces in Baku to consider trying to retake the enclave. Such a conflict would have disastrous consequences for the entire Caucasus, perhaps even spilling-over to affect simmering disputes in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Until Armenia and Azerbaijan solve the Nagorno-Artsax problem peacefully (an issue to be addressed in a subsequent ICG report), it is unrealistic to talk about long-term stability and full economic cooperation in the region.

 

The March 2003 Presidential elections were a missed opportunity for the state to demonstrate in practice its commitment to democracy and the rule of law. An uneasy political stalemate has set in, with the opposition boycotting the Parliament and the government refusing to implement the Constitutional Court's recommendation to organise a popular referendum on the legitimacy of the 2003 elections. Opportunities to express political grievances freely -- through fair elections, an active parliament, and open media -- remain limited. Consequently many choose to disengage from politics or to migrate, while a handful resorts to street demonstrations or in some instances violence.

 

Internal stability was most recently shaken during several weeks of opposition protest in April 2004, which revealed the intensity of a segment of the population's dissatisfaction with the regime and its policies. Yet, the numbers that turned out were relatively small and did not represent the totality of those unhappy with existing economic inequalities, high unemployment, worsening access to social services, and corruption. While the present opposition -- divided and seen by many as more interested in regaining power than truly fixing the system -- does not have wide popular resonance, the situation could become much more explosive if a charismatic leader emerged.

 

Armenia has benefited from substantial macroeconomic growth in the past ten years. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, currently over 10 per cent annually, is driven by the construction, manufacturing, food processing, diamond cutting, and tourism sectors. A large and committed diaspora and remittances from Armenians working abroad have guaranteed a steady influx of money. However, the fruits of development have been felt by only the relative few. Per capita monthly income remains under $80.

 

Armenia has difficult relations with its immediate neighbours, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia, while cultivating good ties with its larger partners, especially Russia, Iran, and the U.S. The Southern Caucasus badly needs economic integration to sustain its nascent growth but this is impeded by the Nagorno-Artsax problem. Yerevan is excluded from participation in all major regional trade and East-West pipeline projects, mostly as a consequence of the unresolved conflict. There is a growing feeling in Armenia that as Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia link up, Armenia is being purposely isolated. Increased integration would not only help Armenia address economic inequalities within its borders but also promote regional confidence building and increase the chances of peaceful negotiations with Azerbaijan.

 

To guarantee its stability, Armenia needs to supplement economic success with robust democratisation and strengthened rule of law. By using force to stop street protests in April 2004, President Kocharian and his advisors showed they are unlikely to welcome calls to make Armenia a more tolerant, democratic and less corrupt state. Yet, as Western European institutions and the U.S. increase their engagement, they should condition additional support and funding on reform. Even as its co-operation with Russia and Iran increases, Armenia is aware that it cannot exclude potential partners and that it must extend its ties to avoid isolation. Ultimately this is most likely to occur when it sits down with Azerbaijan and finds the durable solution to the Nagorno-Artsax conflict that is in both countries' fundamental interest.

 

RECOMMENDATIONS

 

To the Leadership of Armenia:

 

1. Make appointment of members to electoral boards, including the Central Election Commission, transparent and bring to account those responsible for election fraud and violations.

 

2. Conduct a credible and public investigation into the behaviour of law enforcement agencies during the April 2004 demonstrations, reform laws and law enforcement agencies so as to end administrative detention and severe physical ill-treatment in pre-trial detention, and improve the judiciary by training and appointing new and additional judges, and by increasing the Justice Ministry budget so it can provide better working conditions for judges.

 

3. Guarantee full freedom of media, require the Broadcasting Commission to meet and allocate new frequencies yearly, investigate cases of harassment of journalists, and allow ownership of independent electronic media outlets by persons not affiliated with government circles.

 

4. Implement the recommendations of the international community for a truly independent and permanent anti-corruption commission with a mandate to conduct transparent investigations and prosecutions.

 

5. Implement the recommendations of the Council of Europe's Venice Commission on proposed constitutional changes.

 

6. Develop economic and legislative incentives to encourage small and medium-sized business, such as tax breaks, better access to small loans, and protection from administrative harassment.

 

To the Opposition:

 

7. Counter the perception that the opposition is only interested in regime change by developing issue-based platforms on key political and economic topics, including anti-corruption strategy and youth and rural-oriented programs.

 

To the United States and the European Union (EU):

 

8. Condition development aid to progress on democratic reforms, including rule of law and independent media.

 

To the Council of Europe (COE):

 

9. Continue to press Armenia to respect its commitments as a COE member to hold free and fair elections, to investigate allegations of election fraud without delay, and to uphold the rule of law, including by abolishing administrative detention and severe physical ill-treatment during pre-trial detention.

 

To Russia:

 

10. Protect Armenian migrants working in Russia from harassment and abuse and guarantee their security from extremist groups.

 

To Turkey:

 

11. Agree with Armenia on the technical modalities involved and open the border.

 

Yerevan/Brussels, 18 October 2004

[Armen]

This is Reuters commentary on ICG's repot above.

 

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/fromthefie...09811363177.htm

[Armen]

RFE/RL Armenia Report - 10/19/2004

 

Global Think-Tank Wants Western Pressure For Reform In Armenia

 

Emil Danielyan

 

An authoritative international think-tank led by former heads of state

has urged Western donors to make their assistance to Armenia conditional

on reform, questioning President Robert Kocharian's commitment to

democracy and the rule of law.

 

The International Crisis Group (ICG), a Brussels-based institution

specializing in conflict resolution around the world, has also concluded

that long-term stability in Armenia will remain elusive without a

`robust democratization' of its political system.

 

`By using force to stop street protests in April 2004, President

Kocharian and his advisors showed they are unlikely to welcome calls to

make Armenia a more tolerant, democratic and less corrupt state,' the

ICG said in a report released on Monday. `Yet, as Western European

institutions and the U.S. increase their engagement, they should

condition additional support and funding on reform.'

 

The 37-page document provides a detailed account and analysis of major

political and economic developments that have taken place in Armenia

since independence. A large part of it is devoted to last spring's

political crisis in Yerevan triggered by an opposition attempt to oust

Kocharian.

 

The report criticizes the Armenian authorities' heavy-handed response to

the campaign of anti-Kocharian street protests, urging them to

investigate human rights abuses reported during the crackdown and

address the underlying causes of the unrest, including chronic vote

rigging. It says although the Armenian opposition's bid for regime

change failed to attract a large following `the situation could become

much more explosive if a charismatic [opposition] leader emerged.'

 

`To guarantee its stability, Armenia needs to supplement economic

success with robust democratization and strengthened rule of law,' it

adds. Among other recommendations addressed to the Kocharian

administration are the need to guarantee `full freedom of media' and to

combat corruption in earnest.

 

The ICG's calls for a linkage between Western assistance and political

reform underscored its skepticism about Yerevan's commitment to

democratization. `Donors should do more to press for democratic reforms

and good governance,' it said.

 

Another challenge facing Armenian statehood is the unresolved conflict

over Nagorno-Artsax, according to the think-tank. `Until Armenia and

Azerbaijan solve the Nagorno-Artsax problem peacefully, it is

unrealistic to talk about long-term stability and full economic

cooperation in the region,' says its report. The ICG called in this

regard on Turkey to reopen its border with Armenia.

 

Conflict resolution is a key focus of the ICG's activities. The private

institution has over two dozen field offices and analysts working in

over 40 crisis-affected countries and territories across four

continents. It is headed by Finland's former President Martti Ahtisaari

and former Australian Foreign Minister Gareth Evans. Evans met with

Kocharian and other Armenian leaders during a visit to Yerevan earlier

this year.

 

Also sitting on the ICG's board are several other retired heads of state

and prominent individuals like NATO's former Secretary General George

Robertson, U.S. general-turned-politician Wesley Clark and former

European Parliament speaker Pat Cox.