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As a grandchild of genocide survivor I add my voice to Raffi Hovhannissian's statement. http://www.a1plus.am/eng/?go=issue&id=1650...d58e62b735b2cdb RAFFI HOVHANNISSYAN SLAMS VIOLENCE AGAINST PEOPLE Former Armenian Foreign Minister Raffi Hovhannissyan voiced strong disapproval over the authorities’ step against people. "We seem unwilling or unable to learn from history, especially our own. It is to this bitter, ever repeating truth that all of us, together, are once again bearing witness. The official acts of violence unleashed against my fellow citizens I firmly condemn. To their victims I wish a full recovery. To the people struggling in defense of their rights I express my solidarity. Notwithstanding the broad array of mathematical theories, it was crystal clear a year ago that we were on the road to reaping what was methodically sown by the adversaries of liberty and right. Including the president and his office. All this is unraveling not on the territory of a foreign empire - whether genocidal or benevolent -but in the capital of our sovereign homeland. Despite the background of this deep contradiction between national pride and civic shame, it is still possible finally to draw modern lessons from our past inheritance. In and for this confrontation we all are responsible, but first and foremost the ruler of the republic. Stability, national security, law, freedom, and the God-given right to choose are not merely empty excuses for him or his opponent, but rather represent benchmarks and guarantees for all. And the country’s international strength and standing, its capacity to forge solutions to its many fundamental challenges turn directly on our conduct and demeanor in our own home. As a proud citizen of Armenia, and as an heir of Genocide and its survival who believes in the ultimate triumph of historical truth, I feel profound shame that the contemporary rights and dignity of the Armenian man and woman can so easily and so brutally be violated in our own land. And it is with pain, shared by so many, that I reject the self-serving myopia and self-satisfied partisanship that have rendered the united will of the founders and defenders of our homeland unto an abyss so unbefitting our forebears and fallen heroes. At this juncture of widespread hypocrisy, perhaps one final opportunity for an initiative of nobility and responsibility is still open before us, and particularly for him. How is he going to correct the big mistake, how will he clean the polluted source, how will he secure public harmony? The bell of our, and his, national essence and future legacy has tolled. The Armenian state and its citizens - the nation entire - shall rise again, in the face of all ramparts and for the sake of generations yet to come", the statement says.

Reaction of the free world to the events in Armenia. US Concerned Over Rising Political Tensions in Armenia David Gollust State Department 13 Apr 2004, 22:19 UTC http://www.voanews.com/article.cfm?objectI...819F9472320817# The United States expressed concern Tuesday about rising political tensions in Armenia, where government security forces have dealt harshly with protesters calling for the resignation of President Robert Kocharian. The written statement from State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said the United States is concerned about the political situation in Armenia and particularly the "sharp escalation in confrontation" between the government and opposition. Mr. Boucher called on both sides to enter into a dialogue that will lessen tension and focus the political process in the country on the challenges of continued political and economic reform. The U.S. statement came after opposition political leaders in Armenia vowed to press ahead with a campaign to force Mr. Kocharian's resignation following the breakup of an anti-government rally in the capital, Yerevan. News accounts said police used water cannons and stun grenades to disperse a crowd of about 3,000 demonstrators along the city's main thoroughfare near the parliament. Opposition sources said several protesters were injured, others arrested, and opposition party offices ransacked. Government officials defended their handling of the incident, saying protesters provoked the police by throwing stones and calling for the violent overthrow of the government. The opposition denies the claims. In his statement, spokesman Boucher said physical assaults, raids on political party offices, and widespread arrests and detentions of opposition activists by police "do not contribute to an atmosphere conducive to political dialogue." He said the United States calls on both sides to respect the role of peaceful assembly and to take all steps to prevent violence. Armenian opposition elements have been staging almost nightly protests in the last week to push demands for the departure of Mr. Kocharian, whom they blame for high poverty rates, an authoritarian governing style. They also accuse him of rigging the March 2003 election in which he gained a second five-year term in office. The State Department said at the time it concurred with an assessment by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe that the election was marred by serious irregularities and fell short of international standards. It said the election was deeply disappointing and that the Armenian leadership had missed an important opportunity to advance democracy by holding a "credible" election.

ARR, The similarities between Saddam Hussein, Milosevic, Causescu and Kocharyan are the following: 1. They all used nationalism to come to power 2. They all used falsified elections to stay in power 3. They all used force against their own people The list can go on and on, but I think I’d rather stop here. Also, if you want to get into a reasonable argument, make a point without discrediting the information source or getting into personal attacks. Your arguments will be a lot stronger if you provide factual information and set aside personal attacks. All of us want what’s good for the Armenian people, its just my vision of Armenia and yours are diagonally different. I see Armenia as a European country with lawfully elected president, where people have the freedom of speech and assembly. Yours is the current desolate Armenia where people are beaten up and freedom of expression is violently suppressed.

Those of you, who claim that Kocharyan was elected, would probably claim that Saddam Hussain was elected too, as well as Milosevic, or Causescu. Falsifying elections and usurping power can only be done by junta, which is the case in the Republic of Armenia nowadays. The falsifications of the last elections in Armenia is recorded by the European monitors that were present there. Unlike the junta, which currently occupies the post of presidency of Armenia, Levon Ter-Petrossian had the courage to step down and not cling to power when he realized his policies did not have a popular support. Hopefully justice will be served and like the like the above-mentioned dictators, our dictator will be judged in people’s court for his crimes committed against our people. http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/righ...eav041304.shtml GOVERNMENT FORCIBLY BREAKS UP OPPOSITION PROTEST 4/13/04 Police in Armenia used stun grenades and water cannon to disperse an opposition protest during the early hours of April 13 in Yerevan. In addition, authorities closed the offices of two leading opposition political parties involved in organizing the demonstration, which President Robert Kocharian said threatened the country’s "constitutional order." Officials did not immediately disclose information concerning the number of people hurt during the police crackdown. They also released few details about the number of opposition political activists taken into custody. Armenian media reports indicated that dozens of people were severely beaten by truncheon-wielding police, who descended on about 2,000 opposition supporters camping out on Yerevan’s main road, Marshal Baghramian Avenue, not far from the Armenian parliament building. According to one unofficial estimate, 30 people required hospitalization. One individual was reportedly in serious condition, while 14 were supposedly treated and released from area hospitals. The assault began at about 2 am, with columns of police clad in riot gear moving against demonstrators from at least two directions, in what observers said was a maneuver designed to trap the protesters. Eyewitnesses reported that authorities indiscriminately beat protesters. Many journalists, in particular photographers and television camera operators, became embroiled in the melee. The Aykakan Zhamanak newspaper, for example, reported that two of its correspondents were "badly beaten." Authorities insisted that protesters had provoked police. Interior Minister Sayat Shirinian alleged that the demonstrators had ignored warnings to disperse peacefully, and later started to move "menacingly" towards law-enforcement officers, state television reported. Kocharian justified the police action as necessary to combat "political extremism." One of the protest organizers, Stepan Demirchian, head of the Justice bloc and a bitter political foe of Kocharian’s, said the police action constituted a "crime" designed to "terrorize the population." Artashes Geghamian -- leader of the National Unity Party, and another main protest organizer – characterized the police action on April 13 as a "barbaric act," the Arminfo news agency reported. Geghamian along with several other prominent opposition figures went into hiding. Authorities on April 13 shuttered the offices of the National Unity Party and the Republic Party, both of them vocal critics of Kocharian’s administration. The offices were ransacked, according to media reports. Three opposition MPs -- Shavarsh Kocharian, Aleksan Karapetian and Arshak Sadoian, were taken into custody. According to some reports, Kocharian (no relation to the president) was later released. Foreign governments refrained from making any immediate comment on the violence. German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer is scheduled to arrive in Yerevan next week, and German embassy official gave no indication that the trip might be postponed. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe sought to stake out neutral ground, indicating that both sides had engaged in action in recent days that contributed to the violence. The April 13 police action was the culmination of four days of opposition protests organized with the specific aim of forcing Kocharian’s resignation. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Demirchian, Geghamian and other opposition say Kocharian’s administration is illegitimate, alleging that he rigged 2003 presidential and parliamentary elections. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. On April 12, a protest march involving between 10,000-15,000 opposition supporters marched through central Yerevan in a largely peaceful manner. Security forces ultimately blocked the protesters from approaching Kocharian’s executive offices, located on Marshal Baghramian Avenue, and roughly 2,000 protestors decided to camp out in central Yerevan overnight. That set the stage for the pre-dawn violence.

Mass arrests, beating of people, using tear gas against its own people – does these events remind of Tianamen Square. Yes, the establishment of totalitarian regime is becoming more of a reality for the junta. However their shortsightedness shows their real intellectual capacity, because humans are species that are able to reason, so using a force against them is nothing else, but belittling them. We, Armenians, are prideful people and when people’s pride is hurt they can become unruly. Junta can arrest opposition leaders, can even kill them, but new leaders will born, because it’s the popular demand that produces leaders that stand up for human rights. Kocharyan’s junta should realize that peoples will can only be bent but never broken. Finally the monster has taken off its mask. You think people will forget this, or will forgive them for violating their basic rights, right of assembly and to express their opinion. I hope the societies of the West that preach democratic values and human rights won’t give a green light to totalitarianism in Armenian and the events that happened on the night of April 12 won’t go unnoticed. http://www.armenialiberty.org/armeniarepor...F53150E4553.ASP Opposition Offices Seized By Police, Leaders In Hiding By Shakeh Avoyan and Ruzanna Stepanian The offices of two leading Armenian opposition parties were seized by police and their leaders went into hiding on Tuesday. The police also cut short a news conference by two other opposition leaders who vowed to continue to fight for President Robert Kocharian’s resignation. Meanwhile, three opposition lawmaker remained under arrest for their active participation in the anti-Kocharian demonstration broken up by security forces the previous night. Two of them, Shavarsh Kocharian of the Artarutyun bloc and Aleksan Karapetian of the National Unity Party (AMK) were arrested at the scene. Law-enforcement authorities claimed that Kocharian (no relation to the Armenian president) was held carrying a weapon, a charge strongly denied by his supporters. The third parliamentarian, Arshak Sadoyan, was taken away from his home in the morning. Officials said he could be charged with an attempt to “seize power.” Also arrested were two other prominent Artarutyun figures, former Defense Minister Vagharshak Harutiunian and former Deputy Health Minister Artak Zeynalian. Also, the police visited the Yerevan apartment of another prominent opposition leader, Vazgen Manukian, with a search warrant. Manukian was not at home. His wife refused to let them in. The offices of the AMK and a major Artarutyun party, Hanrapetutyun, were ransacked by heavily armed police immediately after the brutal suppression of the anti-Kocharian protest on Baghramian Avenue leading to the presidential palace. Dozens of opposition activists were reportedly detained in the raids. Law-enforcement officials continued to occupy the offices as of Tuesday evening, refusing to let anyone in. Fleeing the attacking special police units, the leaders of the two parties, Artashes Geghamian and Aram Sarkisian, found refuge in a secluded house off Baghramian Avenue together with some 30 people, including two RFE/RL correspondents. They were separately taken to unknown locations by supporters at dawn. Geghamian later contacted RFE/RL, alleging that the authorities are “terrorizing” his family members. The police also burst into the headquarters of another Artarutyun force, the People’s Party of Armenia (HZhK), at about the same time, breaking doors, smashing office equipment and arresting its senior members, including the party spokeswoman Ruzan Khachatrian. They left the building only to reappear at its entrance early in the afternoon just as the HZhK leader Stepan Demirchian met reporters to comment the situation. The law-enforcement officers again left after prompting a noisy uproar from about 50 Demirchian supporters who gathered outside the building. “What happened was a crime,” Demirchian said. “It was a military operation, a terror against the people, and the ruling coalition is also responsible. The special police attacked and beat the people from the National Assembly compound while our deputies were denied entry into the parliament.” But Kocharian defended the use of force, saying through a spokesman that the opposition actions amounted to “political extremism.” He warned that further attempts to force him into resignation would be countered in the same way. The presidential press secretary, Ashot Kocharian, said the opposition disrupted “the normal work” of the president and the parliament, thereby “endangering the country’s constitutional order.” “The demonstrators did not obey the legitimate orders of police officers,” the official said. Kocharian discussed the situation on Friday with leaders of the pro-presidential majority in the Armenian. They effectively justified his actions. The police, meanwhile, claimed that the protesters themselves assaulted security officers with stones and petrol bombs. “Police repeatedly warned demonstrators that their unlawful actions would be met with adequate reaction if they were to continue,” its chief spokesman, Sayad Shirinian said in televised remarks. “But, despite this, the transgressors went on for quite a long time with their anti-social actions. On top of this, in response to [our] warnings, they started moving menacingly toward police forces.” However, various eyewitnesses insist that the eight-hour demonstration was peaceful until the riot police charged against its participants, using truncheons, water cannons and stun grenades. There was no immediate reaction to the dramatic developments from the United States, Russia, the European Union and other pan-European organizations. The U.S. and German ambassadors to Armenia met with Demirchian on Friday but issued no public statements afterwards. Ambassador Vladimir Pryakhin, the head of the Yerevan office of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, expressed concern at the tense situation during a meeting with Kocharian. Pryakhin told RFE/RL that the use of force against peaceful demonstrators is “unacceptable” but at the same time endorsed police claims that they behaved aggressively.

It's hard to believe there are any Armenians left who support current dictatorship in Armenia after the bloodshed organized by them. The monster revealed its face by beating peaceful demonstrators. http://www.armenialiberty.org/armeniarepor...2E31012E82C.ASP Panic And Mass Arrests As Opposition Protest Suppressed By Emil Danielyan and Hrach Melkumian Armenia’s opposition faced the worst ever government crackdown in the early hours of Tuesday after its peaceful demonstration in Yerevan was brutally dispersed by security forces using water cannons and stun grenades. Thousands of people ran away in panic after being suddenly attacked by what appeared to be special baton-wielding police units. Scores of them were badly injured in the chaotic scenes. More precise information on the casualties was not immediately known. The offices of the main opposition parties were reportedly ransacked and dozens of their activists arrested. At least three members of parliament affiliated with the Artarutyun alliance and the National Unity Party were said to be among them. And the editor of a leading pro-opposition newspaper, “Haykakan Zhamanak,” said one of his reporters, Avetis Babajanian, disappeared while another one, Hayk Gevorgian, was in intensive care in hospital after being beaten up by the police. The violent showdown put an end to an eight-hour standoff between the demonstrators and the security forces on the city’s Marshal Baghramian Avenue leading to President Robert Kocharian’s residence. Some 15,000 protesters marched towards the presidential palace from Freedom Square but were stopped by hundreds of riot police and interior troops. They did not attempt to break through the security barrier. Tension eased as the protest, seen as the culmination of the opposition campaign for Kocharian’s resignation, turned into an open-air festivity, with jubilant participants dancing to pop and folk music tunes that blared through loudspeakers. There were still between 2,000 and 3,000 people on the scene at two o’clock in the morning when the attack began from at least two directions. Deafening stun grenade explosions and jets of water quickly spread a panic after the police began indiscriminately beating the protesters. Some of them tried to fight back but were quickly overpowered by the advancing force helped by darkness. The grenades continued to be fired at the crowd even while it fled down the street only to be confronted by other police forces at the nearest intersection. One man screamed in pain after being directly hit by a grenade. An eyewitness said a large group of police officers beat two fleeing protesters about 200 meters away from Baghramian Avenue. Deprived of a safe retreat path, the opposition supporters ran chaotically in various directions, sneaking into smaller streets crossing Baghramian Avenue and their courtyards. About 30 people, among them two RFE/RL correspondents, scaled a wall to find refuge in the garden of a private house. “They hit me with a truncheon and pumped gas,” said a young man with a bloodied face and a blanket wrapped around his body. “There were no soldiers among the attackers. They were all special police with red berets.” Another man, a 56-year-old villager, also had ghastly wounds on his face. He said he was toppled and kicked by three security officers. “They were hitting so hard. What they did was shameful,” an elderly woman recounted, crying. The opposition supporters, too scared to speak loudly, were joined by AMK leader Artashes Geghamian and Artarutyun’s Aram Sarkisian moments later. The two bitter opponents of Kocharian were accompanied by a handful of bodyguards. They both described as “barbaric” the authorities’ response to the demonstrations and vowed to continue their campaign for regime change. “I can say for certain that in this situation Mr. Kocharian will be unable to govern. It is impossible to break the people’s will with truncheons,” Geghamian told RFE/RL. “The people once again saw what the authorities are capable of.” “This once again proved that Kocharian can not stay in this country and must go,” Sarkisian said for his part. Both leaders said they were hit by the police. The third top opposition leader, Stepan Demirchian, was also in the crowd but escaped unscathed. According to Demirchian, “many” demonstrators were hospitalized with serious injuries. Geghamian, Sarkisian and the rest of the fugitive group were then invited into the house by the hosts for safety reasons. Police cars, meanwhile, could be heard racing through the city center. Shocked and exhausted, the people sat there silently, hoping to leave the hideout after dawn. One of them, a villager from the northwestern region of Shirak, helped these correspondents find a safe way back to the newsroom. In the meantime, police broke into the AMK headquarters, located across the street from RFE/RL’s Yerevan bureau, arresting several people, including Geghamian’s deputy Aleskan Karapetian. Similar raids were reported by Sarkisian’s Hanrapetutyun Party and Demirchian’s People’s Party (HZhK). They said the police smashed office equipment and took away dozens of activists. Apart from Karapetian, at least two other opposition lawmakers, Vartan Mkrtchian and Shavarsh Kocharian, were in police custody. Kocharian (no relation to the Armenian president) spoke with RFE/RL from a police van parked inside the parliament compound which also lies on Baghramian Avenue. A police spokesman rejected the arrest numbers cited by the opposition as a fraud, but refused to provide any official figures. He said the information could be released later in the day. There were also no official statements explaining the excessive use of force. Some of the opposition leaders said the crackdown will not stop the campaign of demonstrations. “We will definitely hold more rallies,” Sarkisian said. “I think entire Armenia will rise up. Kocharian has only accelerated his departure.” However, Freedom Square, the main venue for the opposition rallies, was filled with scores of police officers and vehicles shortly after midnight and is unlikely to be available for further anti-Kocharian gatherings.

Interesting article from Armenianow.com http://www.armenianow.com/2004/april09/arts/duryan/index.asp Conducting a Challenge for Change: Rejected maestro returns to rally opposition After leaving Armenia and vowing to never return, veteran conductor Ohan Duryan has returned to lend his name to the movement of political opposition afoot in Yerevan. Two years ago Duryan left in anger, when Ministry of Culture officials revoked his “life time” contract as chief conductor and musical director of the State Academic Theatre of Opera and Ballet. The 80-year old conductor who has performed world wide has since signed a five year contract with the Moscow Symphonic Orchestra. Rosiyskaya Gazeta newspaper in Moscow called him “one of the world’s greatest conductors”. The conductor’s bitter departure from Armenia was punctuated by him refusing his Mesrop Mashtots and Movses Khorenatsi awards – the highest honors the State bestows on a civilian in Armenia. He has since spoken out harshly against the regime that he believes betrayed him. And he has written letters to the president that have gone unanswered. But Duryan says his return to join the opposition is not an act of vengeance. “I am above it,” he says. “Even though I was greatly hurt by the authorities, I am not out for revenge. They will get their punishment from above.” Duryan says his return is an act of patriotism. He recently attended a meeting of intellectuals where he challenged compatriots to lobby for a change of power. “I am an artist and I don’t do politics, however the arrogant activity of today’s government and the miserable state of the people cannot leave me indifferent,” he told Armenianow. “I cannot stay silent, that’s the reason why I joined the opposition and I want to help them. That’s why I appealed to the president himself asking him to address his conscience and to see whether it is possible to rule a country with weapons, tanks, guns, barb-wire -- with beating innocent people who wanted to reveal (ballot) falsifications, with terrorist acts. The president, the head of the state in general, has to count with his conscience and do what his conscience tells him.” Following his own conscience, Duryan is in the mix of a movement that puts him at odds with the government. He says it also has landed his name on “a list of dangerous people”. According to Duryan the situation is not pleasant for other artists as well, but not all of them keep to their principles. “There are devoted people among the opposition, however there are also many of those who are obsessed with power mania,” says Duryan. “I respect those intellectuals who remained at their positions, like Silva Kaputikyan (poetess), Gohar Gasparyan (singer), Tigran Levonyan (singer), Vladimir Abajyan (actor), Khoren Palyan (musicologist). These are people who did not abase themselves to please the president and get some benefits.” The press secretary for the Justice Bloc, the parliamentary representation leading the opposition, says Duryan’s stand is significant. “People were really waiting for the words of their favorite artists. It is of great importance for society and it of course has great impact,” says Ruzanna Khachatryan. Duryan says that his wounds have healed somewhat by his return, and that his main concern is from seeing his countrymen in difficult conditions. “Those who cannot put up with the situation leave. Did we proclaim independent Armenia in order to empty it from Armenians? About a century ago there was a genocide, but now the emptying of Armenia is no less a genocide,” he says. On March 25 the Chairman of the National Assembly Artur Baghdasaryan met with Duryan and during the meeting he said that it was everyone’s mistake to treat the world known conductor that way. “I shall do everything to correct that mistake. We’ll see what we can do,” said Baghdasaryan, during a televised interview. Minister of Culture Tamar Poghosyan has so far been silent. “I don’t know that woman. If she wants to meet me she’s welcome to invite me,” Duryan says. “Anyway, I don’t have a position anymore that can be taken away. I have nothing to loose. Today, I only have a hope that the opposition will be firm in their position, and the scum who are in power will leave without bloodshed.”

How are these, so called elected officials, going to show their faces in the streets of Yerevan after these events? How will they look into people’s eyes after flocking the streets with riot police? Do they even have the feeling of shame or they are immune from it? Graceful exit like Ter-Petrosian could be the best outcome for dissolving the political crisis in Armenia. Why is the Kocharyan clan so confrontational and not willing to compromise? Te nrank tqats unen joghovrdi kartsiki vra? Hasarakutyan zargatsman vra? Every political crisis in civilized countries is solved through compromise not through barbed wire and tear gas? If the president is confident about his popularity and is truly an elected head of the state than a referendum of confidence will only bolster his popularity and discharge the negativity lingering in Armenia since last year's elections. Their fear of referendum makes the populace even more suspicious of them. http://www.armenialiberty.org/armeniarepor...88E34FA8F83.ASP Riot Police Stop Opposition March To Kocharian Residence By Emil Danielyan Thousands of people were locked in a potentially violent standoff with security forces in downtown Yerevan late Monday as the Armenian opposition’s campaign for President Robert Kocharian’s resignation appeared to reach its climax. Hundreds of police and interior troops in heavy anti-riot gear stopped the opposition supporters from approaching Kocharian’s official residence, ready to use water cannons, tear gas and stun grenades. The two sides faced off through two rows of barbed wire unrolled across Marshal Baghramian Avenue, about two hundred meters away from the heavily guarded presidential palace. Other streets leading to it were also blocked. Opposition leaders vowed to keep the supporters on the street until the authorities cave in. “Dear people, we are going stay here together with the soldiers until Kocharian resigns,” Aram Sarkisian of the Artarutyun alliance told the crowd. “We think he will be sensible enough to resign under popular pressure without bloodshed and upheavals.” “We are only meters away from victory,” declared fellow oppositionist Victor Dallakian. There was no immediate reaction to the latest protest from Kocharian who has repeatedly rejected the opposition demands. A statement by the presidential office said the Armenian leader met with Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian to discuss among other things his upcoming visits abroad. There was no word about the domestic political situation. Artarutyun and its ally, the National Unity Party (AMK) made no attempts to break through the formidable security barrier, with opposition marshals at pains to hold the people back from the barbed wire. The opposition leaders made only emotional appeals to the security forces not to protect the ruling regime. “You are protecting someone who violated the constitution. Please open the way. We will take no illegal actions,” AMK Artashes Geghamian screamed, climbing on top of a van that carried opposition loudspeakers. “You are blocking the future of Armenia.” “We have only peaceful intentions. “Do not carry out unconstitutional orders.” Several opposition lawmakers were then sent to meet with parliament speaker Artur Baghdasarian but were denied entry into the nearby National Assembly building. The organizers also demanded a meeting with the national police chief Hayk Harutiunian and live airtime on television. The authorities were unlikely to meet the demands. Meanwhile, the mood among the protesters turned festive as folk music blared through the amplifiers, setting off spontaneous performances of the traditional Armenian circle dance. A group of young men sat down on the ground to sing popular songs to a guitar accompaniment. Some protesters said they are ready to stay there for days. “I’ve brought my coat, have food in my pockets and am going to spend the night here,” said scholar Sergey Martirosian. “They will surrender without a fight,” claimed an elderly man who arrived from a village in the central Aragatsotn region. The march was preceded by yet another rally in the city’s Freedom Square attended by an estimated 15,000 people. Opposition leaders hope that their ranks will swell as the protests drag on. Dallakian in particular pledged to attract more supporters from the provinces that have effectively been cut off from the capital in recent days.

For the better or worse the people have decided to take the streets just like they did in 1988. When peoples voice is silenced and they don't have their elected officials in the legislatvie bodies of the country they are left with no choice but to take the streets. People's revolution can finally establish a rule of law in the country we all love and cherish and enthusiasm and hope can again fulfull Armenian hearts. We are like any normal people in the world, and our culture has nothing to do with the junta that rules Armenia today. Blaming Armenians for the junta, would be synonymous to blaming Germans for Hitler. Our people simply wants justice, which can be delivered only by following the rule of law. If President is so confident that he was truely elected, then holding a referendum of confidence should not be an issue at all. What the opposition and 20,000 supporters that were able to overcome all the difficulties and come to the Opera Square want, is referendum of confidence. It will only make him stronger, and prove the world that he is truely the elected leader of the citizens of the Republic of Armenia. This is already the second time in 13 years of independence when the not-elected president has falsified the elections and a year later had to step down. Interesting article from BBC news service. Armenians rally against president By Chloe Arnold BBC correspondent in Baku Thousands of protesters have attended a rally in the Armenian capital Yerevan to demand the resignation of President Robert Kocharyan. The Armenian authorities did not sanction the rally and warned that disorder would not be tolerated. Dozens of opposition activists were arrested earlier in the week for holding a similar demonstration. The rally comes a year after a disputed presidential election which saw an easy victory for Mr Kocharyan. On Monday, police arrested dozens of protesters after violent clashes. Human rights groups have condemned the arrests as well as an attack on two journalists during the demonstration. Georgian example Opposition parties, backed up by international observers, said the vote had not been free and fair. The main opposition leader, Stepan Demirchyan, called for a referendum on the results of the election. But after the constitutional courts turned down his request, he said he was forced to take more radical steps. Many Armenians hoped the country would see an uprising similar to the so-called Rose Revolution in neighbouring Georgia. Tens of thousands of Georgians marched on the home of their President, Eduard Shevardnadze, last November, forcing him to step aside. Many in Armenia blame the current regime for chronic levels of poverty and unemployment. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, as many as a million Armenians have left to seek a better life abroad. Story from BBC NEWS: http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/europe/3615147.stm Published: 2004/04/09 20:41:23 GMT

The fact that Kocharyan is not elected is not a matter of opinion it’s a meticulously recorded fact by many European observers. If the leader is not elected, and has broken laws continuously how can you expect other citizens to follow the rule of law? Sasun, no there won’t be a second coming of Christ to Armenia, who will sacrifice himself for the good of the people. These kinds of things happen only in myths. Joghovrdi masin mtatsel@ da ughaki legend a, sakayn orenkner@ hargel da kaghakatsiakan partk. I strongly believe that a developing country like Armenia needs a structure to implement laws, and laws can not implemented if the power is usurped. When President’s bodyguard in front of many people kills a person and is let free, when numerous political assassinations go uncovered, when president relies on skinhead bodyguards to bit up journalists, when the only source of alternative information, A1 Plus is closed, when dissent is not tolerated…… this list can go on and on, and I blame the leader of the system for tolerating this situation. My point is not that he is bad and others are good, the point is that he has no respect for the rule of law. The point is not that our president does not have an intellectual capacity to lead; the point is that he is a criminal because he collaborates with criminals (Kuku is just an example). So let the justice be served and the court of law be his judge, not the unruly mob. Remember Causescu in Romania, he was a war hero and many people thought he was loved by people. We saw his miserable end, when he was shot in front of presidential palace. It would be tragic to have the same scenario repeated in Armenia, because people’s patience has its limits.

Axr yerkir@ umits prkel, kam el inchits MosJan. Yerkir@ prkelu karik chi zgum, ayl miayn orinavor chanaparhov @ntrvats ishxanutyun, vor@ vayeli joghovrdi vstahutyun@. Husalkvats joghovurd@ ankarogh e ardyunavet darnal, kani vor nra araj amen inch pak e. Hay mard@ Hayastanum chuni huys, nra huys@ apagayi nkatmamb korel e. Kani angam karogh e mardu @ntrutyun@ votnakox anel, anargel nra kartsik@. Yes andzamb koghmnakits em ayn ujin vorin k@ntri Hayastani Hanrapetutyan kaghakatsin, legitim yev ardar @ntrutyunneri mijotsov.

Have you guys lost all your hope that Armenia can become a democratic country. I haven’t. There is a huge unrealized potential in that country that goes unutilized. It’s not a matter that Kocharyan is good or bad, the question is that he is not elected, thus is an illegitimate president. Not elected officials who do not respect people’s choice are considered junta, which is what we have in Armenia now. It doesn’t matter whether the legitimacy is established through revolution, or through resignation of junta leaders, but it is imperative for the country if it wants to move forward, and become a respectful democracy. Where the journalists are not beaten up, or where the people have the freedom of assembly. Where there is an independent TV, and people are free to choose their leaders. MosJan ochen’ oskarbitel’no kogda govorish chto radi neskol’ko dollarov, nash narod doljen’ jit’ v takix sastayaniax, nam nuzhna normal’naya strana, a ni turisticheskie dollari. We need a change of system and a firm establishment of democratic principles; otherwise there is no future to our country.

I think our IT has blocked everything. Thanks for the help to all of you people. I guess I am going to stay out of trouble and keep using Kinko's next door, although it's 20cents a minute and 50cents a page to print (outrageous).

The http://www.multiproxy.org or http://www.surfola.com were blocked but I was able to access the http://www.openproxy.com . So what should I do next.

I can access Internet Options, and I don't think I have a limited account. What configurations need to be changed. Also, how can they know about my internet activity. There are more than 500 analysts working here, I don't think IT guys will have time to look into weblog of each analyst.

Sip, they have blocked the websites you've listed above too. Isn't there any other way. At our firm we are always playing cat and mouse with the IT guys. They keep blocking and we keep finding ways how to bypass. This time it's really serious and none of us is able to do anything about it. Why do they have to be such nags.

I came across this issue a few times recently. The IT department at work blocks the hotmail and yahoo mail sites, so we can not check our personal e-mails. Their reasoning is that since they have no way of monitoring it, the network can get viruses from outside sources. Although it's bogus, but we have to abide by their rules. I was wondering if the computer gurus in this forum know of anyway that the block can be bypassed. Every time I try to access the hotmail website, it says blocked by websense.

Arpa, If you're familiar with Oskanyan's biography, his diplomatic experience is only confined to working in Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Armenia. There are many Armenians who are working as embassadors or have high ranking positions in many countries, for example Suren Harutyunyan, ex Communist First Secretary of Armenia, used to be one of the consuls of Russia in Egypt. I can go ahead and put a list here. All am I saying that the potential of Diaspora is underutilized. The government should not be only after the money, but also after the experience and brains of the Diaspora. In 21st century, human capital is the most important asset.

There are no eternal enemies, just eternal interests. Saakashvili was able to make Georgia the center of Caucasus. He has turned it from a failed state to a leader of Caucasus. Georgians are even utilizing their limited resources in their diaspora. What is Armenian government doing, besides actively leading the country toward the dictatorship. An interesting article from BBC. Oh by the way if some of you think you can compare Oskanyan to Zurabashvili, Oskanyan does not have any experience working in foreign diplomatic corps. French diplomat is Georgia minister A French diplomat is about to start a new life - as foreign minister for the former Soviet republic of Georgia. Salome Zurabishvili, 51, was born in France to Georgian parents, but won a posting back to Georgia as the French ambassador. She will now be granted Georgian citizenship in addition to her French passport. Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili said it had been "his dream" to appoint to the post since he met her in 1996. "She made a brilliant career in France but she stayed a Georgian at heart and a true patriot," he told reporters. It is a very important gesture on the part of the French government... She is a senior employee of their diplomatic service President Mikhail Saakashvili Mr Saakashvili said he believed such an appointment was "unprecedented in the history of diplomacy". He said he had cleared the move with French President Jacques Chirac during a visit to Paris. "It is a very important gesture on the part of the French government, a very significant gesture on the part of the French president. "She is a senior employee of their diplomatic service. "They know and trust her personally." International standing Ms Zurabishvili, whose family emigrated to France early in the 20th century, has worked as a French diplomat in the US, the European Union and Nato. She also headed the international department of France's national security general secretariat, before her appointment to Tbilisi last year. Mr Saakashvili, a US-educated lawyer himself, has appointed a cabinet with many Western-educated ministers since he was elected in January. Story from BBC NEWS: http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/europe/3504830.stm

Interesting article about Russia's role in NIS. Russia does not have the economic potential to be a world power, so it's using overt ways in dealing with autocratic regims. http://www.gateway2russia.com/st/art_213470.php The Rape of Eurasia The former Soviet Union is once again the central sphere for Russian foreign policy. Oleg Khrabry Putin’s notorious siloviki who have thrown Mikhail Khodorkovsky, head of the oil company YUKOS, into an investigatory detention center, had a far greater effect on Russo-American relations than Moscow’s resistance to the war in Iraq and alliance with Germany and France against Washington. Today, as presidential election campaigns have begun in both the US and Russia, the infamous friendship between the two presidents, when one was always claiming to “see into the soul” of the other, has degenerated into a shallow acquaintance of two extremely preoccupied and self-absorbed executives who talk on the phone from time to time, scolding each other for breaking some unwritten rule of business ethics. That’s all that Vladimir Putin, on the eve of March presidential elections in Russia, and George Bush, on the eve of November presidential elections in the US, really need right now. For Bush, friendship with Putin became just as big of a problem as the current American economic crisis, the guerilla war in Iraq, or the defects of the new health care bill. Problems in his relationship with Bush, on the other hand, will not hurt Putin’s chances at reelection one bit and could even improve them in a certain sense. After Khodorkovsky’s arrest and the routine Duma elections, it has become clear that relations between the US and Russia will no longer be as they were. Certainty and an element of predictability have emerged. America realized that Russia represented a “new Byzantium” with a strong authoritarian government. The Russian establishment saw in Russia’s strategic ally a wily double-crosser, who was not only taking over Moscow’s tradition spheres of influence abroad, but also pushing for “regime change” in the NIS right under Moscow’s nose. Each country’s pragmatic understanding of its own goals will form the basis for US-Russian foreign relations for the entire coming year and beyond. The end of big brother Russia One of the main results of the past year, dominated the overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq, was the contraction of the sphere of Russian foreign policy’s actual influence in the NIS. Russia was ready to play the role of equal partner with America, but exclusively wanted to play the role of “big brother” with the NIS republics. As Russia has ceased to be big, it has also ceased to be a brother. As Russia has ceased to be on equal footing, it has also ceased to be a partner. American and EU behavior in this extremely delicate web of interrelationships in the NIS region reminds one of a bumblebee that tears a web to shreds without even bothering to get entangled in it. The division of spheres of influence between Russia, America, and the EU will never be complete, but last year reinforced trends in the political definition of the main client states. The “Slavic autocrats” fell into Russia’s sphere of influence, while America got the “Oriental despots.” Washington’s choice of clientele is determined by several common-sense notions. First of all, the US would like to secure its military bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. Secondly, it would like to secure the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum natural gas pipeline and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline scheduled to be completed by late 2005. Hence the Americans have cultivated client relations with the Aliev clan that crushed all political opposition in Azerbaijan last year and with Islam Karimov in Uzbekistan. Karimov, a captive to world cotton prices, became an American client immediately after 9-11. The current relations between Uzbekistan and the US are as stable as America’s alliance with Saudi Arabia once was before that fateful day in September. Washington is pushing for strong, “Saudi-style” ties with all the leaders of the former Soviet republics. And this is the main challenge facing Russian foreign policy today. The logic behind choosing NIS clients is simple: who isn’t with the Americans is with the Russians. Moscow has powerful means of influencing its prodigal sons, Ukraine and Belarus, and is currently considering how to solve the issues of political power there as painlessly as possible. In Kiev, Russia is trying with all its might to get Leonid Kuchma to hand over power to his successor without a scandal. In Minsk, Russia is wracking its brains about how to get rid of the main obstacle to a Russia-Belarus union, Alexander Lukashenko. Their rapprochement with Russia occurred in part thanks to their conflict with the US. By drifting away from Washington, they logically fell into Moscow’s open arms. In the absence of a powerful and effective political apparatus capable of increasing Russia’s influence in the NIS step by step, Moscow’s most potent tool is energy. RAO EES Rossiya owns energy assets in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, controls 80% of the energy market in Armenia, which will soon start exporting electricity to Azerbaijan, and has gained almost complete control of the Georgian market, one of the key reasons Washington became disenchanted with Eduard Shevardnadze. At the same time, the “velvet revolution” in Tbilisi orchestrated by American diplomats proves that control over an impoverished country’s energy system by RAO EES or Gazprom is not the deciding factor defining its political orientation. Moscow’s options are nonetheless limited by “reverse dependence,” as relations with the “father of all the Turkmens,” Saparmurat Niyazov in Turkmenistan made extremely clear. The problem is that Turkmen natural gas, like oil from Kazakhstan, could be used to fill up the pipeline system bypassing Russia that the British and American investors are currently building. Spurred by the appearance of future problems with filling the above mentioned pipelines, Moscow and Ashgabat signed a 25-year agreement in April of last year. Turkmenistan is required by this agreement to sell Russia up to 70 billion cubic meters of natural gas by 2007, for which Russia will pay around $44 per thousand cubic meters. However, Moscow immediately found itself in a political trap, a captive of commercial profit and geopolitics. Right after the agreement was signed, Niyazov outlawed double citizenship, forcing the Russian ethnic minority to make the difficult choice between abandoning Turkmenistan or breaking ties with Russia for once and for all. Despite unprecedented pressure on Turkmenbashi, the problem remains unsolved to this day. Moscow cannot achieve its goal of overthrowing the Turkmen despot due to Russia’s standoff with America in the NIS region. In Turkmenistan, a country without even the inklings of a civil society and ready at any moment to run to Washington for protection from Russian attacks, a country shored up by promises to pump its gas into their political pipeline, traditional methods of political pressure just don’t work. Between the tigers and the dragon Because Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East are supposed to turn into alternative sources of energy for the Asian Pacific Rim and the American West Coast, the crisis in the government’s relationship with the business community was sparked in part by the Kremlin’s geopolitical reasoning. Moscow has an innate fear of its rapidly growing neighbor, China, capable of economically devouring and even potentially snatching away border regions in the Russian Far East. This encroachment could pose an actual threat due to the dramatic decline in population east of the Urals. Last year, several standing controversies were laid bare, not only between Russia and China, but also between China and Japan, both vying for economic domination of the region. The reason behind the antagonism was access to Russian energy resources. The Kremlin and YUKOS could not agree on the final terminus of the Siberian collecting main. Apparently, during his official visit to Russia in May of last year, PRC president Hu Jintao signed a joint communiqué with Putin regarding the construction of the Angarsk-Daqing pipeline (1,400 miles long costing $2.5 billion). At the same time, the Chinese National Oil Corporation signed a 20-year, $150-billion agreement with YUKOS. The Russian oil giant agreed to transport fuel to China by rail until the necessary pipeline was built. However, to all outward appearances, the Kremlin decided to put the project on the back burner, seeing it as a tactical move, while Mikhail Khodorkovsky began to lobby extensively for the Chinese route. All parties knew very well that even earlier, in January 2003, when Japanese prime minister Junichiro Koizumi made an official visit to Moscow, he also signed a Joint Action Plan with Putin, which designated the export pipeline to Nakhodka and the Sea of Japan as the top priority. In response to Beijing’s diplomatic steps in May, the Japanese, who previously linked all investment in Russia to the issue of the Kuril Islands, expressed their willingness to invest $5 billion directly in Eastern Siberian oil development, $7.5 billion in construction of the export pipeline, and $1 billion in accompanying social and economic programs in the Primorsky Territory should the oil pipeline be built at Nakhodka. No one has ever offered Russia investments amounting to $13.5 billion before. The far eastern route is both longer and more expensive than the Chinese route, but it would be more than just a pipe through the taiga. It would be a powerful economic integration stimulus for all of Siberia and the Russian Far East. However, Khodorkovsky could not comprehend why “all this baloney” started and began to lobby hard for the Chinese project. Clearly, this did not decide the fate of the oligarch and YUKOS, but his dispute over the pipelines was a real and very serious conflict with the Russian government, in which the former, if victorious, would get uninterrupted oil “straight from the well.” Moscow for its part put these projects in a broader context of geopolitical reasoning. At the center of this reasoning was the desire to draw economically depressed regions into active economic activity, even at the cost of immediate economic gain. Khodorkovsky’s arrest did not bring an end to this conflict, but the Chinese lost their main lobbyist. Obviously, fears of the “yellow peril” gained the upper hand in Russian foreign policy. The subtle game of the Japanese which played on these subconscious fears and the history of Sino-Soviet relations also played a role. Every person should decide for himself how justified these fears are, but in an interview Khodorkovsky inadvertently confirmed their validity, stating, “The Chinese hinted to me that you can only hit a dragon on the tail with a stick while it’s sleeping. We are running up with our club and smashing the dragon on the tail. The dragon hasn’t noticed yet. And I really don’t want it to finally notice.” Dangerous liaisons The more Russia trades with a certain country, the more political problems arise in their relations: this amusing tendency has long been apparent in Russian foreign policy. Russia’s main trading partners last year were the EU (35.9% of Russian trade), the NIS (17.5%), and the APEC countries (an average of 13%), of which the leaders were China, the US, and Japan. By comparison, Russia’s trade with India, which had the least number of political disputes with Russia, barely reached $1.2 billion, not even one percent, mostly due to close defense industry ties. In other words, areas of increased economic interest always become areas of increased political conflict. This is particularly true of Russia’s relations with the EU and China. Last year was one of the most contentious in relations between Moscow and Brussels. The political interests of the expanding EU came into sharp conflict with Russia’s interests. Moscow was extremely annoyed by the EU’s tough new visa regime and more difficult transit procedures for Kaliningrad residents. It was annoyed by the EU’s refusal to admit Russia into the WTO (The EU set unacceptable conditions, one of which was that Russian domestic prices for energy should correspond to European prices). It was annoyed by the EU’s harsh criticism of the war in the Caucasus, by the slowdown in trade ties with the NIS due to EU expansion, by the EU’s strong reaction to the YUKOS Affair, and so on. Moscow ran into an iron curtain where it expected a breakthrough. The stronger and more total the Russian president’s power becomes inside Russia, the more vulnerable this power seems in the international arena. Russian political universalism, in which many have seen an increasingly forceful Eurasianism, is the result of a painful compromise between the domestic goals of the Russian government and its desire to be part of the Western world. For now, many Westerners see the Russian establishment’s wavering between outlaw nations, the Arab monarchies, American patrons, Italian lawyers, and French and German Americo-phobics as a demonstration of inconsistency or even a lack of principles. In fact, this soul searching has resulted in Russia rethinking of its new role in the post-Soviet region, which we simply have no right to lose.

We need leaders like Saakashvili - educated, charismatic and intelligent. COMMENTARY 'Georgia Stands On the Frontier Of Freedom' By MIKHAIL SAAKASHVILI President Bush late last year spoke about the importance of democracy in a dangerous world: "The progress of liberty is a powerful trend. Yet, we also know that liberty, if not defended, can be lost." Mere days after he uttered those words the Georgian nation rose up to defend our liberty and chart our own destiny. The Rose Revolution succeeded with great joy -- and without violence. It demonstrated that our roots and our identity are with the West. Far more than simply a product of Georgia's economic stagnation or the rampant corruption that strangled our future, our revolution was about a principle Americans understand very well: that government should be by the people and for the people. Our people demonstrated that, as in America, devotion to commitment to the values of liberal democracy reflects the overwhelming will of the people, not just the desires of a small elite. In my first visit to the United States as president of Georgia, I am proud to express the appreciation of my citizens to President Bush and the American people for the support provided by the U.S. in our recent democratic upheaval. Georgians have now regained our freedom, defended our liberty, and we have fully embraced democracy, economic liberalization, and the rule of law. The past three months witnessed hope triumph over despair and empowerment replace disenfranchisement. But we know the most difficult steps remain in front of us. Our national goals of full integration into Euro-Atlantic institutions will require years of diligent effort, consistent reforms, and patient progress. While we welcome and desire help from our friends abroad, we realize that success will depend on Georgian decisions and Georgian deeds. We are combating the pervasive corruption that paralyzed our state and demoralized our people. We face difficult challenges in alleviating poverty, consolidating democracy, increasing economic activity, restructuring our government, reforming our military, and attracting foreign investment. We are heartened by offers of support from NATO and European Union members, and we are steadfast in our aspiration to become full members of these organizations at the earliest possible opportunity. We have to re-establish Georgia's territorial integrity through peaceful resolution of conflict in Abkhazia. We would welcome an increased international and especially a U.S. role in the peace process. Guaranteeing Georgia's sovereignty will also require the elimination of abandoned Soviet arms stockpiles and, most importantly, the guarantee that the only foreign military forces in Georgia are those that have been invited. That is not the case today, with more than 3,000 Russian troops on sovereign Georgian soil. Too often in the past, Russia increased instability in our region, and its "peacekeeping" was rather a "piece-keeping" -- trying to retain pieces of the former empire. After recent meetings with President Putin in Moscow, however, I am increasingly hopeful that Russia's current leadership recognizes that Georgian territorial integrity benefits the entire region. Indeed, if Russia is willing to adopt a modern, 21st-century approach to its relations with Georgia -- one grounded in respect for the sovereignty and dignity of the Georgian people -- I am sure we can enhance our cooperation and advance our mutual interests. In Georgia, we are ready for new dialogue; our goal is responsible and friendly relations with all of our neighbors. Russia is a very important trade partner for Georgia. We share historic and cultural and above all human ties and we need to normalize our political relations. We enjoy good relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan. Our powerful NATO neighbor, Turkey, has helped us at critical moments. Together with Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria, we seek the creation of a secure and stable Black Sea regional security system that furthers our integration with the West. Full integration with the West will aid Georgia, and it will contribute to the West's security and prosperity as well. By avoiding violence and disintegration during a difficult political transition, Georgia stands as a demonstration that real stability comes only with democracy. Georgia's geographic location and our strategic orientation enables us to work with the West in addressing 21st-century threats. We are on the front lines in combating global terrorism, trafficking of humans and illicit drugs, and proliferation of weapons -- both conventional and unconventional. We have already begun efforts to provide new energy resources to Europe and beyond with the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil and the South Caucasus gas pipelines. Opportunities will expand throughout our region as frozen conflicts are resolved and economic reforms take hold. Georgia and the United States enjoy a strong partnership rooted in shared values and common interests. We appreciate the years of generous financial assistance provided by the United States. Its investment helped create the human and political infrastructure required for free and fair elections. Georgians were gratified to hear U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell, at my recent inauguration, reiterate President Bush's commitment to continue support for our reform and integration. At my inauguration, I dedicated my presidency to the Georgian people: to all those who have suffered and even given their lives to preserve our freedom; to the children of Georgia whose future we must rebuild; and to the re-establishment of total territorial integrity throughout Georgia. In so doing, I am committed to leading Georgia back into the Euro-Atlantic fold -- to stand once again with our Western partners to build a better future. Georgia is located on the frontier of freedom: at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Our past identity and our future destiny lie in the values and aspirations that unite the Euro-Atlantic community. Today, we are on our way home but we know our journey has only begun. The Georgian people are determined to complete this journey. I am confident that, working with our friends, we will reach our destination. Mr. Saakashvili is president of Georgia.

A couple of weeks ago WSJ had an interesting article about Armenia. I thought some of you might be interested. I think Kim Iskyan makes a great point about Diaspora's help. Diaspora's role should be to promote structural reforms, not infraastrucuture development. Structural reforms will lead to infrastructural development, but not the other way around. Has any of you asked why we don't have our "Saakashvili". Why does our nation lack charismatic leaders (like LTP was in early 90s). Why Can't Armenia Be More Like Georgia? By KIM ISKYAN YEREVAN -- The recent "rose revolution" in the Caucasus nation of Georgia, in which an energetic new government replaced a corrupt post-Soviet regime, has sparked hope that change in neighboring Armenia may be on the horizon. But the prognosis for any significant shift in Armenia's political and economic tectonic plates -- via either a Georgian-style democratic coup, or the more mundane toil of measured and deliberate reform -- is poor at best, to the detriment of the prospects for democracy and prosperity in the long term. That said, Armenia is now an island of relative stability in a volatile region, and it punches well above its geopolitical and economic weight. Neither an oil producer (like Azerbaijan) nor an energy corridor to Europe (like Georgia), nor a member of the Axis of Evil (like neighbor Iran) -- Armenia's importance rests in the strategic necessity for both Russia and the U.S. to have a friend in the rough Caucasus neighborhood. Turmoil in Armenia could upset the delicate balance of power in the region, and in turn trigger renewed tension with Azerbaijan (and, possibly, Azerbaijan's ally, and NATO member, Turkey) over the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Artsax. Additionally, the lobbying efforts of the Armenian diaspora -- more than twice as many Armenians live outside the country as within its borders -- ensures that Armenian concerns remain on the radar screen of local politicians, particularly in the U.S. Yet Armenia's strategic importance also means that its big-brother allies are willing to overlook a deep economic and political malaise. On the surface, the country's macro-economy appears vibrant: GDP grown for 10 consecutive years, including a 14% jump in 2003, and exports have nearly tripled since 1998. But Armenia's economic growth has been off a very low base, as GDP shrank by more than 50% in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union, and has yet to reach 1990 levels of GDP per capita. Moreover, implementation of micro- and macro-level reforms critical to ensuring the sustainability of economic growth has been woefully insufficient. The 51% of the Armenian population mired in poverty has barely benefited from economic growth. As a Nov. 2001 World Bank study noted: "The last several years have not brought…noticeable improvements in living standards for the majority of the population." The blockade by Azerbaijan and Turkey of their borders with Armenia, a consequence of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Artsax, cripples trade and investment. Meanwhile, foreign direct investment in Armenia is faltering, amounting in 2001 to $70 million, less than a third of its 1998 level. Massive injections of developmental funds from the U.S. government, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and an alphabet soup of other donors -- enough to make Armenia one of the largest recipients of foreign aid on a per capita basis -- have obscured the facts of economic mismanagement and rampant corruption. Armenia's central bank recently forecast that GDP growth would fall to 7% in 2004, in part because this year Armenia is not slated to receive a structural adjustment loan from the World Bank, and because a large-scale $165-million philanthropic foundation endowed by Las Vegas billionaire Kirk Kerkorian just ended. Compounding matters has been the migration since 1990 of roughly 20% of Armenia's population, including many of its best-educated citizens. (True migration levels may in fact be significantly higher, as the Armenian government is widely believed to inflate the country's population figures -- officially 3.2 million -- so that developmental aid is not reduced.) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DOW JONES REPRINTS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. To order presentation-ready copies for distribution to your colleagues, clients or customers, use the Order Reprints tool at the bottom of any article or visit: www.djreprints.com. • See a sample reprint in PDF format • Order a reprint of this article now. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The government of President Robert Kocharian has taken credit for the improvement in the economic environment that its policies have done little to promote. Widespread allegations that a small number of well-connected ministers control the country's most lucrative businesses fuels popular cynicism toward the government. But it may be years before a critical mass of disgust with official corruption -- which played a key role in the overthrow of former Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze -- develops in Armenia. Mr. Kocharian won re-election early last year in elections characterized by government control over the media, ballot-stuffing, widespread intimidation, discrepancies in vote counts and a range of other irregularities that deeply damaged the population's remaining faith in the democratic process. Mr. Kocharian has managed to stay in power since 1998 partly because (unlike Mr. Shevardnadze's administration in Georgia) the Armenian government has -- with a little help from its foreign friends -- for the most part been able to provide for the most basic needs, such as heat, light, and water, of its citizens. He also doesn't hesitate to suggest that Azerbaijan might try to take advantage of any sign of disharmony in Armenia's hard-line stance toward Nagorno-Artsax, of which Mr. Kocharian previously was president -- a sure-fire way to silence any nascent opposition on the issue. But Mr. Kocharian has also benefited from the deep divisions in the Armenian opposition. It is led by Stepan Demirchian, the son of a Brezhnev-era party boss who basks in the reflected glow of his late father's popularity -- but didn't inherit his charisma or political savvy. In contrast to new Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili, much of the Armenian opposition is perceived to be more interested in having its turn at the trough, rather than focused on bringing about real change. Armenia's ace in the hole is its diaspora, which sends back home remittances equivalent to upwards of 10% of GDP, ensures that Armenia continues to receive developmental funds, and provides critical expertise to and investment in the Armenian economy. But the priorities of the Armenians abroad -- such as Turkish recognition of the 1915 Armenian genocide, and for funding one-off infrastructure development projects that do little to support long-term economic growth and development -- often conflict with the present-day realities and needs of the country. And private diaspora aid in effect supports the current political regime. Impetus for change is unlikely to come from the U.S. (and the Armenian diaspora lobby there), which is more concerned with stability than with reform. For a different set of reasons, Moscow is for now happy to continue politically and militarily support for the pliable Mr. Kocharian, particularly as Russia looks to increase its focus on Armenia as its primary outpost in the volatile Caucasus. Georgia's revolutionaries are just starting the hard work required to benefit from the political perfect storm that brought them to power. But Armenia is a long way from even beginning the process of change. Mr. Iskyan is a freelance journalist and consultant based in Yerevan, Armenia.

Boghos I tend to disagree with you about MBA being a necessity. It's not the degree that counts, it's how value added you are to the firm. I work with a lot of Wharton and Harvard MBAs, and I don't see they are more value added than most of the crew here. A lot of my friends took the Kaplan GMAT preparatory test and most of them are really satisfied. It's about $2000 I think. You should definately take it. They offer courses in downtown LA and in UCLA. Also, if you are thinking of an MBA if it's not a top 25 school than it's really not worthed. Try to aim for Stanford, Haas, UCLA or USC. The culture at USC and UCLA are diagonally different from each other. USC is mainly based on case studies, while Anderson gives you a lot of quantitative technical knowledge. If you want to be in Financial Services industry than I wouldn't recommend USC (although I went there). USC is a very "Corporate School", while Anderson is very enterpreneurial. I think if you can get in there you'll enjoy it very much. USC is too oriented toward Far East Asian market. They take you to China and Japan for a case study. In terms of price and reputation I think Haas and Anderson are the best options. My brother goes to Haas and he is having a blast, and the atmosphere is very academic unlike most business schools. There is agreat European community there, a lot of Spaniards, Brits and Italians. But before you get into it, ask yourself why do you want to do it. Just because you want to have the initials on your resume than it's definately not worthed.

Interesting article and a little degrading to "Lilliputian" Armenia in today's Moscow Times. Armenian Oligarchs: Goldfish in a Puddle http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2004/02/19/008.html By Kim Iskyan To Our Readers Russia has many oligarchs -- not least the 17 Russians who made it onto Forbes magazine's list of the world's 500 richest people. No Armenian national, however, made the grade. The threshold of wealth to qualify for oligarch status in Armenia is a rounding error for the Russian counterparts of Armenia's moguls. Armenia's annual GDP (which is a lot larger than any individual's fortune in the country) is equivalent to two months' revenue for LUKoil, or the total wealth (as of March 2003) of oil baron Viktor Vekselberg, the fourth-richest Russian on the Forbes list. But in Lilliputian Armenia, local oligarchs -- who would barely merit a nod from the maitre d' at Cafe Pushkin -- are veritable Gullivers. Armenia's oligarchs are easy to spot. They're the guys swaggering down Yerevan's main drag, Abovyan Street (shrink Tverskaya by a factor of 10 and you're getting close), flanked by a bevy of flathead thugs who look like genetically engineered, black-turtleneck-clad KamAZ trucks on legs. The local moguls join the corrupt Nagorny Artsax generals in building mansions gaudy enough to make palatial New Russian dachas look like modest middle-class suburban pads by comparison. They're piloted about town in a Hummer, Bentley or maybe a tinted-window Mercedes sport utility vehicle -- chase car optional. As in Russia, Armenia's oligarchs have their fingers in a lot of pies. There's the Armenian mini-mogul who, according to the Commission to Protect Economic Competition, in 2002 controlled 96 percent of all sugar imports and 78 percent of all alcohol and spirits imports. Another has a bank, an airline that is perpetually on the verge of bankruptcy, and an offshore company that accounted for more than three-quarters of all gasoline imports. He's often linked to Defense Minister Serzh Sarkisyan, Armenia's gray cardinal, who headed up the president's re-election campaign last year. (It was probably just a coincidence that the quality of gasoline deteriorated -- perhaps because it was being diluted -- right around the time that the campaign needed extra cash.) Then there's the bank-and-real-estate tycoon, the candy-and-tobacco baron, the beer-and-natural gas magnate, the power-and-media industrialist, the my-wife-is-friends-with-Putin's-wife power broker and so on. Some of Armenia's oligarchs are giving something back as parliamentary deputies. (Immunity from prosecution has nothing to do with their desire to serve their country, of course.) If Russia's oligarchs are sharks in a pond, Armenia's are goldfish in a puddle. But if the puddle is your universe, it's not such a bad life. Kim Iskyan, a freelance journalist and consultant based in Yerevan, Armenia, contributed this comment to The Moscow Times.

This is what an apathetic diplomacy leads to: Exclusion from regional projects. Today Wall Street Journal had an interesting article about financing Baku-Jeyhan pipeline. This has deep implications on regional developments. The leadership of Republic of Armenia has effectively excluded itself from regional developments. Every government should have a vision for the future of its country. To this day I don't understand what's the vision of current leadership. If somebody knows can they explain it. Financing for Caspian Pipeline Solidifies U.S. Policy in Region Wide Range of Lenders Back $3.6 Billion Project To Be Completed in 2005 By HUGH POPE Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL ISTANBUL, Turkey -- A crucial plank of U.S. policy in the oil-rich Caspian region settled into place Tuesday as a wide range of commercial banks and international financial institutions signed up to finance the first major non-Russian oil-export pipeline from an area of the former Soviet Union. After a steady drumbeat of loan approvals valued at $600 million from U.S., European and Japanese multilateral lenders and state export-credit institutions, 15 commercial banks on Friday signed their agreement to raise an additional $1 billion toward the project's $3.6 billion total cost. The major investors in the pipeline are its 11 owners, led by BP PLC and Norway's Statoil and including Unocal Corp., ConocoPhillips and Amerada Hess Corp. They financed a start to construction nine months ago, but consortium spokesman Tamam Bayatli said Tuesday's autograph session by supporters means all details have been finalized for the long-contested Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. "It's a strategic victory," said Patrick O'Mara, director of a midsize oil field in Kazakhstan who one day hopes to send most of his production across the Caspian Sea and ultimately to Turkey's Mediterranean coast via the new pipeline's route through Azerbaijan and Georgia. "What they've done has increased the value of oil properties all across the Caspian." The consortium says the pipeline route was decided on purely economic grounds. Still, the 1,100-mile course is the anchor of a U.S. policy called the East-West Energy Corridor that Washington hopes will enhance the independence of the region's ex-Soviet states from Russia and Iran, reduce pressure on Istanbul's crowded Bosporus waterway and expand world access to oil that isn't controlled by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Born during talks between newly independent Azerbaijan and its linguistic kinsmen in Turkey in 1992, the BTC route received strong U.S. backing in 1994 after a BP-led group of Western companies signed a contract to develop Azerbaijan's most-promising Caspian offshore oil fields. Since Russia opposed losing its monopoly on energy exports from former Soviet states -- and the resulting high transit tariffs -- the contract left open the exact path of any main export pipeline. When a route was needed to send the first oil from Azerbaijan in 1996-98, a compromise was reached: one line was laid north to Russia and another west to Georgia. BP and other companies operating in the Caspian were themselves late converts to the BTC line, worrying about its cost, length and nearby military conflicts along its route through three countries. Warfare between Azerbaijan and Armenia was a particular concern, even though a cease-fire has been in effect since 1994. The route was even lengthened to avoid a region of Georgia where there is a Russian military base. The BTC line was nearly sunk at the last minute by objections from an array of environmental and human-rights groups. Opponents worry that in pursuit of its strategic goals, the U.S. has turned a blind eye to autocratic regimes and human-rights violations. "The political momentum behind the project was so great, slowing it up was incredibly difficult," said Greg Muttitt, representing one of four British organizations that criticized the project. But he said their campaign had forced better land compensation in Turkey and pressured banks and international institutions to review their lending policies. The BP-led consortium finally committed to the BTC route in 2001, judging it to be both economical and a vital alternative to the tanker-clogged Bosporus -- a chokepoint that has caused weeks of delays in Black Sea oil shipments to Europe this winter. Since work started in April, construction is more than half complete, said Ms. Bayatli, the consortium spokeswoman. The million-barrel-a-day line is expected to be finished in 2005. As an indication of the project's complexity, the 208 finance documents signed Tuesday already bear 17,000 signatures from 78 parties. But all the work has cleared political and geographic hurdles for a separate BP-led consortium to plan a natural-gas line from the offshore Azeri field of Shahdeniz to Turkey and from there to Greece and Europe. That line is known as the South Caucasus Pipeline and will be laid alongside the BTC. The consortium will fund the entire $900 million cost of laying it through Azerbaijan and Georgia, Ms. Bayatli said, and all agreements are in place for it to start pumping gas in 2006. Write to Hugh Pope at hugh.pope@wsj.com5