Artashes

The concern I have about the 10 year time-frame is that granted the oil revenues that will be flowing within those 10 years of peace to the Azeris, God knows what kinds of leverage they will be able to build up within and around Karabagh. The population of Karabagh is very impoverished, to say the least. With the tremendous amount of resources at their disposal during the ten years, the Azeris will resort to buying Armenians off within Karabagh and will start to work the internal political, economic, social and cultural factors so that they have a fair chance with the referendum in 10 years. Let's say, for the sake of discussion, the blockade is lifted during those 10 years and Armenians within and without Karabagh get all the opportunity to build it up along the lines of Armenian interests. Who will pour - directly and indirectly - more resources into Karabagh? The Armenians or the Azeris? With the Armenians, most of the resources will have to come from Diasporan Armenians, right - Armenia has enough of a challenge fending for herself economically and developmentally. While the final status of Karabagh is up in the air during those ten years, most Diasporan Armenians will be reluctant to go all out there, whereas, and in contrast, the Azeris will have no choice but to build what they need to in all realms (military, economic, political, social, cultural, informational, etc.) all around Karabagh, and to the degree possible, within, through various native and/or inserted agents. Comparing the relative weak interests of the Diasporan Armenians in Karabagh to the geographically immediate and strong interests of the Azeris results in the identification of this key difference in terms of who will do what, how, where, when, and how much, in and around Karabagh. Granted the Azeris’ present and expected oil revenues, that does not bode well for Armenians and Armenian Karabagh. Granted the impoverished people of Karabagh, there is palpable susceptibility to various individuals and families being bought off by the Azeris through oil money. So, if we are going to go down that route, we better start preparing a comprehensive plan in our Diasporan circles about an accelerated schedule of sustainable development for Karabagh, starting yesterday! We need to make up in organization and time what we will lack in resources if this scenario unfolds. Artashes M.

The geopolitical calculation for Azerbaijan centers around the prospect of slowed or delayed oil revenues if war breaks out. It is in their interest now to keep things cool until they build up their infrastructure and military resources with oil revenues. They also know that Christian Russia, EU, and US will tilt towards Armenia in the event they are aggressors in breaking the cease-fire. They further know that Turkey is not on sure footing now with the US, so, they can't count on Turkey putting pressure on the US in their favor. The wild-card is Israel. How will Israel react if war was to break out again between Armenian forces and Azerbaijan? I venture that Israel would follow the US lead officially, but, would support Turkey's efforts from behind the scenes to aid Azerbaijan. From what I understand, Israel's ties with Turkey are more than geopolitically inspired. Perhaps, Israel and Turkey have some racial ties through the Khazars, some of whom adopted Judaism in the 8th Century, and comprise a faction within the Ashkenazim of Israel and Europe. I think Armenia's biggest political leverage in the negotiations is Europe. The Europeans have a long memory with what the invading Tatars have done to Eurasia and to neighboring European nations, throughout history. I think it is most important now for the Orthodox Churches across Eurasia, Europe, and the Middle-East to unite further among themselves, and to further make overtures towards the Catholic Church to make amends for the event of 1054. Part of what ties the Azeris to the Turks is Shiite Islam. Indo-European and Slavic Catholics and Orthodox should also unite around the cause of Karabagh. Part of the Zionists' historical strategy vis a vis the Indo-European Christians has been to split Russia from Europe through Eurasia. There are many legitimate accounts of "Crypto-Jews" in both Europe and Eurasia converting to either Islam or Christianity, in order to further this strategy from the inside-out. I firmly believe that there are Zionist elements in both Turkey and Azerbaijan working the Karabagh issue in favor of Israel and Zionism. If prominent Jewish members of the US government have substantial sway over US foreign policy, then, it is, in the least, also plausible to posit that such Jewish leverage also works against Armenia in proportion to Israeli/Turkish/Azerbaijani wishes. In summary, we have plenty of leverage in these negotiations, if we remain united, and if we can further rally other Christians around the world to our cause. However, unity should never be at the expense of lively, well reasoned, well intentioned, and vociferous debate on what is the best way to proceed on this most important issue. We need to strengthen and cultivate individualistic (agency) streaks and impulses within us, as well as the communal (unity). We need strong and articulate individuals among us to make up a strong and assertive Armenian Community. Artashes M.