new promising era New Promising Era "President" & VP Nikol Pashinian

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IRI - International Republican Institute

Oct 18 2024

 

 

IRI Armenia Poll Finds Majorities Support EU Membership, Peace Treaty with Azerbaijan

 

October 18, 2024

 

Yerevan, Armenia – A new nationwide poll conducted in Armenia by the International Republican Institute’s (IRI) Center for Insights in Survey Research (CISR) found that majorities support joining the European Union (EU) and striking a peace deal with Azerbaijan.

When asked how they would vote in a referendum on EU membership, 58% said they would vote to join the European alliance.

“This poll shows that most Armenians see their prospects for a bright future with Europe,” said Stephen Nix, Senior Director for Eurasia at IRI. Moreover, the people of Armenia understand that moving further away from Russia and towards the West is important to enhancing peace and prosperity.”

The survey also found that 56% of Armenians strongly support or somewhat support a peace treaty with Azerbaijan.  The two countries have been engaged in an ethnic and territorial conflict for decades where thousands of civilians have been displaced.

“A clear majority of Armenians would like to see their government engaged in negotiations with Azeri authorities for the purposes of reaching a lasting peace deal,” said Nix.

Read the full report at https://www.iri.org/resources/public-opinion-survey-residents-of-armenia/

 

 

https://www.iri.org/news/iri-armenia-poll-finds-majorities-support-eu-membership-peace-treaty-with-azerbaijan/ 

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Azatutyun.am

 

Biden Offers ‘Bold’ Steps For Armenia-Azerbaijan Settlement

Հոկտեմբեր 22, 2024

 

Armenia - Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian meets with Michael Carpenter, a senior U.S. National Security Council official, Yerevan, October 22, 2024.

 

The United States is ready to take “bold initiatives” to help Armenia and Azerbaijan reach a peace deal, President Joe Biden said in a letter to Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian publicized on Tuesday.

Michael Carpenter, Biden’s a special assistant and a senior official at the U.S. National Security Council, handed the letter to Pashinian during a meeting in Yerevan held the day after his talks in Baku with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.

In a separate message on Monday also delivered by Carpenter, Biden urged Aliyev to conclude a peace agreement with Armenia before the end of this year.

“As you know, finalizing the remaining articles of the peace agreement will require persistence, ingenuity, and compromise,” read the letter to Pashinian released by the latter’s office. “But putting patriotism above politics, you have courageously and consistently chosen the path of peace - and I encourage you to finalize an agreement this year.”

“As you do, my administration is prepared to take bold initiatives that would help pave the way for peace. I have asked my Senior Director for Europe, Michael Carpenter, to brief you on some of the steps we would be willing to take and get your feedback on discussions with Azerbaijan,” added Biden.

An official Armenian readout of Pashinian’s meeting with Carpenter made no mention of those steps or the results of the U.S. official’s trip to Baku. It said the Armenian premier again repeated his proposal to sign an Armenian-Azerbaijani agreement that would contain most of the 16 articles of a draft peace treaty that have already been agreed upon by the two sides.

Baku has repeatedly rejected the proposal as unserious. It has also made clear that any peace deal is conditional on a change of the Armenian constitution which it says contains territorial claims to Azerbaijan. Aliyev reportedly reiterated this precondition during his meeting with Carpenter.

Biden’s letter to Aliyev fully or partly publicized by the Azerbaijani presidential office apparently did not mention the “bold initiatives” offered to Pashinian. The U.S. president cited the COP29 global climate summit that it will begin its work in Baku on November 11. He described the summit as a “unique opportunity to demonstrate your commitment to peace in front of a global audience.”

Armenian officials have expressed concern that Azerbaijan could invade Armenia after COP29. Earlier this month, Aliyev made fresh threats of military action, accusing Yerevan of playing “dangerous games.”

 

 

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Armenpress.am

 

Politics10:50, 23 October 2024

Armenian parliament ratifies Azerbaijan border delimitation regulation

Read the article in: العربيةEspañolفارسیFrançaisՀայերենРусскийTürkçe简体中文

 

YEREVAN, OCTOBER 23, ARMENPRESS. The Armenian parliament has ratified the regulation on joint activity of the Armenia-Azerbaijan commissions on delimitation and border security.

The regulation was signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan in late August 2024. 

The regulation was ratified by the Armenian parliament during the plenary session on Wednesday with 67 votes in favor. Only the ruling Civil Contract faction participated in the vote. The two opposition factions, Hayastan and Pativ Unem, boycotted the debates and vote. 

 

 

 

Published by Armenpress, original at https://armenpress.am/en/article/1202976?fbclid=IwY2xjawGG2yJleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHQHhhbzptmx6556jQPM8LTEnT_PcF_gJOK0GfkrMD3B-7DCaEjuet1G9ew_aem_k4_ZjPDIIMaSx5ozqMpwtg

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Azatutyun.am

 

Yerevan Rejects Another Russian Mediation Offer

Հոկտեմբեր 23, 2024

• Shoghik Galstian

 

Armenia - Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan speaks at a news conference in Yerevan, September 9, 2024.

 

Armenia is not interested in having Russia, Iran and Turkey mediate its further peace talks with Azerbaijan, Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan said on Wednesday, dismissing a relevant offer from his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov.

Lavrov publicized the offer right after a meeting in Istanbul on October 18 of the foreign ministers of the five states making up the so-called “Consultative Regional Platform 3+3.” He accused the West of meddling in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict for ulterior purposes.

“We, the Turks and the Iranians offered our colleagues, Yerevan and Baku, to use the 3+3 platform to complete the work on a peace treaty,” Lavrov said, adding that Russian-brokered understandings reached by Yerevan and Baku in 2021 and 2022 should serve as the “groundwork” for delimiting the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, opening it to commerce and settling other contentious issues.

“That proposal [cited by Lavrov] is not really on the table,” Mirzoyan told the Armenian parliament. “But even if it is, we do not find it expedient to respond positively to it.”

“We have a format of bilateral negotiations with Azerbaijan in all directions, both on border demarcation and on the peace treaty,” he said, answering a question from a parliament deputy.

Amid its mounting tensions with Moscow, Yerevan already declined earlier this year similar Russian offers to help resolve the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. It has been far more open to peace talks with Baku mediated or arranged by Western powers.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony hosted such talks between Mirzoyan and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov in New York late last month. The two ministers met again on the sidelines of the Istanbul gathering.

Baku has since continued to reject an Armenian proposal to sign an initial peace deal and to link any settlement with a change of Armenia’s constitution. Mirzoyan criticized its “unconstructive approach.”

“But this does not distract us from our strategy: to make the signing of the peace agreement a reality as soon as possible,” added the minister.

Michael Carpenter, a senior official at the U.S. National Security Council, conveyed letters from U.S. President Joe Biden to the leaders of the two South Caucasus states during his visits to Baku and Yerevan earlier this week. In his message to Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian, Biden said Washington is ready to take “bold initiatives” to help broker an Armenian-Azerbaijani peace deal.

 

 

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From one liar to another, both parties did f*ck all for Armenians period. 

 

 

Quote

 

Armenpress.am

 

Politics09:52, 24 October 2024

Trump vows to restore Armenia-Azerbaijan peace if elected, slams Harris for doing ‘nothing’ during NK ethnic cleansing

Read the article in: العربيةفارسیՀայերենРусскийTürkçe

 

YEREVAN, OCTOBER 24, ARMENPRESS. Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump has accused his rival and Vice President Kamala Harris of doing “nothing” when the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) was forcibly displaced in 2023.

In a statement posted on Truth Social, Trump vowed to “restore peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan” if elected President again.

“Kamala Harris did NOTHING as 120,000 Armenian Christians were horrifically persecuted and forcibly displaced in Artsakh. Christians around the World will not be safe if Kamala Harris is President of the United States. When I am President, I will protect persecuted Christians, I will work to stop the violence and ethnic cleansing, and we will restore PEACE between Armenia and Azerbaijan,” Trump said.

 

 

 

Published by Armenpress, original at https://armenpress.am/en/article/1203077?fbclid=IwY2xjawGHl3VleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHSKlEtdCu3UJVxZ9wayIuGIKvC8hSICWEfbayppTsC0i_LxRSB_eWRhLHg_aem_msk34trF-tk-xKuhyCvReg

 

 

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Armenpress.am

 

Politics14:52, 25 October 2024

Aliyev approves Armenia-Azerbaijan regulation on border delimitation - Azeri media reports

Read the article in: فارسیFrançaisՀայերենРусский简体中文

 

YEREVAN, OCTOBER 25, ARMENPRESS. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has signed a decree approving the regulation on joint activities of the Armenia-Azerbaijan commissions on border delimitation and border security, the Azeri Trend news agency reported.

The approval comes after the Armenian parliament ratified the regulation on October 23. 

Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturyan signed the bill into law on ratifying the regulation on October 24. 

 

 

 

Published by Armenpress, original at https://armenpress.am/en/article/1203220?fbclid=IwY2xjawGI-RpleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHQVXaEwHhSxVenuAP2sdCZNWMXzKS4hoqIswcUl3RZvsdOIiJlQOkso6nA_aem_PZDK2oeYhhegBOcULEJHzw

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Armenpress.am

 

Press centre17:05, 25 October 2024

Soaring citizenship applications prompt Armenia to digitize procedure

Read the article in: Հայերեն

 

YEREVAN, OCTOBER 25, ARMENPRESS. The government plans to make changes in the citizenship application procedures. 

The services will be digitized and the fees for applying for/or revoking citizenship will be revised. 

According to Armen Ghazaryan, the Director of the Migration and Citizenship Service, the move will significantly improve the efficiency of the processes.

Speaking with Armenpress, Ghazaryan presented data showing the overloaded process. 

“In the 2000s there were about three to four thousand citizenship request applications, since 2010 the number was five to six thousand annually, and since 2018 the number of applications for Armenian citizenship has abruptly increased. This indicator reached its highest point in 2022, surpassing 25,000. In 2023 the pace decreased a little, amounting to 19,000. In 2024, in the nine months, we already have 16,060 applications. And these are only the numbers of the applications seeking to obtain citizenship, and in addition to this we have an average of three thousand applications on renouncing citizenship. This means that our service is studying up to 30,000 cases pertaining to citizenship every year,” Ghazaryan said, adding that the current instruments are insufficient to deal with such high number of cases. Thus, the authorities propose to introduce an electronic procedure for citizenship applications. 

Citizens will upload their documents in the system instead of in-person visitations to various agencies or departments. The applicants will make an appointment and visit the administrative body only once, after the application is approved and all necessary data uploaded.

Ghazaryan said the changes will help to avoid the time-consuming correspondence between government agencies. 

The fee for applying for Armenian citizenship will be raised from the current 1000 drams to 50,000 drams, while the fee for renouncing citizenship will increase from the current 25,000 drams to 150,000 drams. 

The current fees have never been revised since 1997. The new fees will not cover refugees, including the forcibly displaced persons of Nagorno-Karabakh who have temporary protection status. 

After passing parliament the changes will take effect in ten months. 

 

 

 

Published by Armenpress, original at https://armenpress.am/en/article/1203236?fbclid=IwY2xjawGI-VdleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHfbadODL9_jl2N2N0hY-9QutHmEDEqDu74R5NOGijBuLDVLmXZ8YRfTUIQ_aem_ro0blaZsVGDapDWe66KIQg

 

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MEDYA News

Oct 27 2024

 

Armenia says it’s ready to open border with Turkey, awaiting Ankara’s response

Armenian Special Envoy Ruben Rubinyan has declared Armenia’s readiness to open the border with Turkey immediately, pending Ankara’s action. The normalisation process, he says, could play a key role in easing regional tensions.

Armenia is ready to open its border with Turkey and establish diplomatic relations “as soon as tomorrow”, Armenian Special Envoy Ruben Rubinyan announced on Thursday, stressing the mutual benefits this could bring to regional peace.

 

Speaking to reporters, Rubinyan confirmed that Armenia has completed all necessary preparations, restoring the Margara (Alican) checkpoint, and is awaiting action from Ankara.

“We have taken the steps required, the checkpoint is fully operational on our side, and everything is ready for the agreement to be implemented. Now, we’re waiting for Turkey to follow through,” Rubinyan said. He explained that while the Armenia-Turkey normalisation process and the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace negotiations are related, they remain two separate diplomatic tracks. “Progress with Turkey could greatly contribute to our peace process with Azerbaijan,” he added.

Rubinyan noted that while an agreement to allow third-country nationals to cross the border had been reached and reaffirmed, it has not yet been enacted. Responding to questions about the delay, he stated, “I can’t speak to the reason for the lack of action from Turkey, but we are clear on our commitment to this agreement and hope to see it fulfilled soon.”

He also shared that officials from both Armenia and Turkey’s relevant ministries plan to meet to discuss the conditions for reopening the Gyumri-Kars railway—a significant step for regional connectivity. While no date has been set for this meeting, Rubinyan emphasised the importance of improving transport links for both countries and the wider region.

https://medyanews.net/armenia-says-its-ready-to-open-border-with-turkey-awaiting-ankaras-response/

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Armenpress.am

 

Politics16:50, 30 October 2024

Azerbaijan has occupied sovereign Armenian territory in Syunik, acknowledges French envoy

Read the article in: العربيةFrançaisՀայերենქართულიРусский简体中文

 

GORIS, OCTOBER 30, ARMENPRESS. French Ambassador to Armenia Olivier Decottignies has recorded Azerbaijani occupation of sovereign Armenian territory in the Nerkin Hand section of Syunik Province.

Speaking to reporters in Goris, the French Ambassador presented his impressions from his visit to Nerkin Hand.

He said that a part of Nerkin Hand is occupied by Azerbaijan. “This situation creates great difficulties for the residents. They have a sense of danger, and that danger is real, because the strikes could start again. There are problems regarding everyday life, people even have problems with water, there is human drama here, people are unable to visit the graves of their relatives,” the ambassador said.

Asked whether he acknowledges that Azerbaijan invaded from all four sides in that area into the sovereign Armenian territory, the ambassador said, “From three sides, because we went there from one side.”

 

 

 

Published by Armenpress, original at https://armenpress.am/en/article/1203626?fbclid=IwY2xjawGPtPRleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHbBhGUKbGyZL2PQFDtkiIwJpg-SKKbav6bThg1PTXSbBUKDdbWXvDE0inQ_aem_jN-hVdpVfyUggyACZKf_-Q

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Azatutyun.am

 

Armenia To Host UN Biodiversity Conference In 2026

Նոյեմբեր 01, 2024

 

A poster about Armenia hosting the next UN Biodiversity Conference (COP17) in 2026

 

Armenia will host the next United Nations biodiversity conference in 2026, according to the country’s environment minister.

Hakob Simidian said on Friday that Armenia was selected as the host for the conference, also known as COP17, with 65 votes. The other candidate was Azerbaijan, which is set to host a UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) later this month.

During his working visit to Colombia earlier this week, Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturian addressed the 16th Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity in Cali, stating that holding COP17 in Armenia will be “an excellent opportunity to advance multilateral efforts to protect global biodiversity.”

“Armenia will spear no effort to make sure that the CO17 will be another important milestone in our global efforts for biodiversity preservation and sustainable use of natural resources,” Khachaturian said.

 

 

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JAM News

Nov 2 2024

 

"Armenia isn't militarizing but raising cost of attacking it": opinion

• JAMnews

• Yerevan

Armenian experts are discussing the potential reasons and implications behind statements from Baku regarding Armenia’s alleged “militarization.” They believe these statements, made on various platforms, aim to portray Armenia’s arms purchases as a “threat to peace and stability in the region.”

“The Azerbaijani narrative on Armenia’s militarization is intended as self-justification. When they decide to start a war, they will be able to claim this as their reason for initiating military action. They have similar narratives prepared for this scenario. For example, every two or three weeks, they also spread messages alleging that Armenian armed forces supposedly fired on Azerbaijani positions at the border,” said Leonid Nersisyan, a senior analyst at APRI Armenia and military expert, on a local television broadcast.

He does not rule out the possibility that Azerbaijan might escalate the situation following COP 29. While winter weather conditions may not be favorable, Nersisyan believes the likelihood of escalation will increase in spring 2025. However, he notes factors that could accelerate the decision toward urgent military action.

In his view, possible catalysts include the upcoming U.S. presidential elections and the further intensification of the Iran-Israel conflict. The expert believes that if tensions escalate, Armenia must be prepared to defend itself. To achieve this, it requires adequate weaponry that “raises the cost of attacking it.”

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• “Baku wants Yerevan to acknowledge its hegemony” – Armenian political analyst

• “Blank shot”: Armenian political analyst on recent statements from Baku
• Yerevan proposes joint investigation of ceasefire violations, no response from Baku

• “Armenia holds potential for drone manufacturing” – Military expert

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Azerbaijan will not succeed in blocking Armenia’s arms purchases

In response to whether Azerbaijan could prevent Armenia from purchasing weapons, a military analyst noted that this is unlikely to happen through diplomatic channels. However, Baku might attempt to obstruct Armenia’s efforts to forge new partnerships:

“Take France, for example. I believe Azerbaijan miscalculated in its actions. It was actually their actions that helped us deepen our cooperation with France. I saw no signs that France had any strong desire to damage its relations with Azerbaijan. Baku damaged them itself. If the Azerbaijani side continues in the same way, it will achieve nothing.”

“Baku cannot completely block all arms markets for Armenia. However, if Armenia makes significant arms purchases in certain important countries, and corruption factors are introduced into these deals, as happened with Serbia and Slovakia, then they might be able to hinder us to some degree.”

“In 2025, the gap between Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s military budgets will be the smallest”

There were years when Azerbaijan’s military budget exceeded Armenia’s by five or six times, says Leonid Nersisyan:

“Next year, we will see the smallest gap in military budgets over the past 20 years. The difference will be less than twofold. We must work to ensure this gap continues to narrow each year.”

The expert also reminds that as Armenia acquires weapons, Azerbaijan continues to build up its already powerful arsenal:

“Baku has a serious arms supplier in Israel, which operates quite effectively. The country is strengthening its capabilities in various areas. For instance, they are now enhancing their aviation assets. We have four new fighter jets, while they have 20, plus 12 older ones.”

"Unprecedented, but significantly inferior to Baku": expert on Armenia's military spending

The Armenian government plans to increase military spending by approximately 20%. However, even with this increase, Azerbaijan’s military budget for 2025 remains nearly twice as large. Commentary from military expert Leonid Nersisyan.

 

“Additional investment in air defense is essential”

According to Nersisyan, current arms purchases remain insufficient due to market shortages, particularly in air defense systems. He points out that while Armenia has acquired a considerable number of Akash missile systems from India, these systems cover only one segment—medium-range defense. Indian media report that part of the order will be delivered to Armenia by the end of the year.

He stresses the need for further investment in air defense capabilities.

Following the 44-day war in 2020, Azerbaijan has continued to expand its capabilities, says the expert. Azerbaijan is now purchasing a large number of drones, remotely operated weapons, and cruise missiles:

“The addition of 250-km-range cruise missiles to Azerbaijan’s arsenal means we must adopt a different approach. Air defense needs to be managed very efficiently, utilizing the latest control networks. For instance, if your radar detects five small drones, two large drones, and one Su-25 approaching, your control network should semi-automatically decide that anti-aircraft artillery should target the small drones, the S-300 should engage the Su-25, and the Indian Akash should intercept the large drones. And all of this needs to happen within one or two minutes.”

"Armenia needs to sign a trilateral agreement with France and India." Opinion

The leader of the “Republic” party and former PM, Aram Sargsyan, believes that this is good for Armenia’s security

 

“New partnerships are needed”

Military analyst Nersisyan highlighted that in recent years, Armenia has been acquiring defensive weapons from India and France. However, he believes that it is essential to explore other promising directions as well:

“South Korea is currently one of the largest manufacturers. Looking at what Poland has ordered from South Korea, it’s clear that it has far outpaced Germany in this field.”

Nersisyan noted that South Korea has invested heavily in its military industry over recent decades and, unlike many European countries, can take on and fulfill large orders.

At the same time, he points out that while South Korean weapons are high-quality, they are also among the most expensive in the world:

“For instance, the K2 tank is considered the most technologically advanced in the world, but a single tank cost over $12–15 million a few years ago.”

“Collaboration with European countries is also essential”

The analyst urges defense policymakers to remember that weaponry and ammunition are not limited to tanks and anti-aircraft systems:

“There are also smaller components that should be considered. In the context of the Russia-Ukraine war, it’s important that any country Armenia wants to partner with not only shows interest in cooperating with Yerevan but also views Armenia as a priority alongside Ukraine. France has shown that it can do this, but we cannot say the same for other countries.”

Nersisyan believes that Armenia’s Ministry of Defense should also collaborate with other European nations, such as Poland, “whose role in the military sphere has been growing recently.”

https://jam-news.net/armenias-defense-sector-reforms-expert-opinion/ 

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Azatutyun.am

 

Yerevan Signals Lingering Differences Over Peace Treaty With Azerbaijan

Նոյեմբեր 07, 2024

• Shoghik Galstian
• Ruzanna Stepanian

 

Deputy Foreign Minister of Armenia Vahan Kostanian (file photo)

 

Armenia has signaled that differences remain with Azerbaijan over the draft text of a peace treaty following the latest exchange of proposals earlier this week.

On Tuesday, Armenia’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that it had received a response from Baku to its most recent proposals on the draft treaty, marking the 11th version of the document exchanged between the two sides in over two years of negotiations.

Deputy Foreign Minister Vahan Kostanian told RFE/RL’s Armenian Service on Thursday that there were still disagreements on “one or two issues,” though he did not specify which points remained unresolved.

“The parties do not yet share a common position on these issues, and naturally, discussions with official Baku will continue,” Kostanian said.

Farid Shafiyev, head of a government-funded think tank in Azerbaijan, has disclosed three controversial points in the peace agreement with Armenia. He wrote on X that one of these issues concerns Azerbaijan’s demand that Armenia change its Constitution, which Baku claims contains territorial claims against Azerbaijan. The second point, according to Shafiyev, is the exclusion of “legal and diplomatic disputes” by Yerevan, and the third one is the absence of foreign forces along the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Kostanian denied that the demand for changing the Constitution is part of the draft peace treaty. However, he was vague on the other two purported points.

“Since the negotiations are ongoing at the moment, I don’t think it’s right to fully disclose what the discussions are about. But yes, as I mentioned, there are points that have not been agreed upon, and discussions will continue on them,” the Armenian diplomat said.

Asked whether Armenia would accept the withdrawal of the EU border-monitoring mission if a peace agreement with Azerbaijan is signed, Kostanian responded: “At the moment, since we do not have a delimited border with the Republic of Azerbaijan, and as long as there are problems, the Republic of Armenia believes that the involvement of European Union monitors on the Armenia-Azerbaijan interstate border plays an important role in terms of security and stability.”

Commenting on the issue of “legal and diplomatic disputes”, the deputy foreign minister said: “One must look at the general process and general logic. For the Republic of Armenia, there are also many important issues beyond this agreement, including humanitarian issues, which need to be addressed.”

The latest exchange of proposals between Yerevan and Baku took place on November 5. Armenia’s Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan earlier stated that the two sides were working through “one or two wordings” of the text. Mirzoyan suggested that once these issues were addressed, the treaty could be finalized and be ready for signing. He, however, did not provide specific details on the issues still under discussion.

When asked by RFE/RL’s Armenian Service whether the issue of withdrawing international legal claims against Azerbaijan had been addressed or was still on the table, Armenia’s Foreign Ministry effectively declined to offer a concrete answer.

“The public is properly informed about the process of normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan and Armenia’s positions, including on the articles of the peace treaty,” the ministry responded vaguely.

In response to a follow-up question about whether Azerbaijan would also withdraw its lawsuits against Armenia if that matter was part of the discussions, the ministry said: “The articles of the peace treaty will be based on the principle of reciprocity.”

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian had previously proposed that Armenia and Azerbaijan move forward with signing the peace agreement based on the parts of the draft text that both sides had already agreed upon, which he estimated at roughly 80 percent of the document. Pashinian suggested that any remaining issues could be addressed later. However, Baku rejected this approach.

Expectations for a breakthrough on the peace treaty have risen since a meeting between Pashinian and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on October 24, on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia. While few details of that meeting were officially disclosed, Pashinian and Mirzoyan reportedly spoke about progress achieved at those talks when they discussed their results with members of their political team in Yerevan.

Armenia and Azerbaijan embarked on their current peace process after a deadly 2020 war over Nagorno-Karabakh that saw Baku’s regaining control of much of the breakaway region as well as a series of subsequent border clashes

Azerbaijan completed its takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023 when more than 100,000 ethnic Armenians fled hostilities and resettled in Armenia.

Armenia continues to accuse Azerbaijan of occupying parts of its sovereign territory following cross-border incursions in 2021-2022.

The United States and other Western partners of Armenia and Azerbaijan have repeatedly expressed their support for a peace treaty between the two South Caucasus nations, encouraging them to finalize it already this year.

 

 

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Azatutyun.am

 

Pashinian Rejects Key Azeri Condition For Peace Deal

Նոյեմբեր 13, 2024

 

Russia - Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev and Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan attend the BRICS summit in Kazan on October 24, 2024.

 

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian on Wednesday rejected continuing Azerbaijan demands for a change of Armenia’s constitution which Baku says contains territorial claims to Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijani President Aliyev has repeatedly described such a change as a precondition for signing a peace deal with Armenia. Aliyev reiterated it during talks with foreign leaders held in recent days.

Baku points to the constitution’s preamble that mentions a 1990 declaration of Armenia’s independence. The declaration in turn cites a 1989 unification act adopted by the legislative bodies of Soviet Armenia and the then Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast.

Echoing a recent ruling by the Armenian Constitutional Court, Pashinian downplayed the legal significance of the preamble. Articles of the constitution take precedence over it, he said, adding that it is the Azerbaijani constitution that lays claim to Armenian territory.

“Armenia, however, does not raise the issue of changing the Azerbaijani constitution for two reasons,” Pashinian told the Armenian parliament. “First, such a demand would deadlock the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process. And second, there is an article in the agreed part of the peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan which states that the parties cannot refer to their domestic legislation to justify their failure to implement this treaty.”

“By the same logic, we believe that there is no need to amend the Armenian constitution in this context,” he said.

Pashinian himself declared in January that Armenia needs a new constitution reflecting the “new geopolitical environment” in the region. He denied critics’ claims that he wants to scrap the current constitution at the behest of Baku. Still, Pashinian said at the time that peace with Azerbaijan will be impossible as long as the constitutional reference to the 1990 declaration remains in place.

In May, the Armenian premier ordered an ad hoc government body to draft the new constitution by the end of 2026. The head of the body said afterwards that it will likely be put on a referendum in 2027.

Pashinian said on Wednesday that he could “initiate constitutional changes” in the unlikely event of Armenia’s Constitutional Court refusing to validate the possible peace treaty.

Last month, Pashinian reportedly proposed to Aliyev that their foreign ministers hold two-day intensive talks to iron out their remaining differences and sign the peace treaty before the COP29 climate summit that began in Baku on Monday. No such talks took place. A senior Armenian diplomat admitted on Monday that the two sides still disagree on some provisions of the would-be treaty after exchanging fresh peace proposals last week.

Aliyev’s top foreign policy aide, Hikmet Hajiyev, told the Russian TASS news agency on Wednesday that Baku and Yerevan will likely resume their discussions of the sticking points next month.

 

 

https://www.azatutyun.am/a/33200882.html?fbclid=IwY2xjawGiVcBleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHeIJ6ffVOB3EvueOTu8ppzzc2drkDtfu6ID0EX88s1mkRWznxYqusDwRUQ_aem_G_9YuVvSZip3LAWhfVhn-w

[Yervant1]

Nov 18 2024

 

Political Shake-Up in Armenia

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has announced a request for several high-ranking officials to resign, citing systemic reasons rather than personal ones. Additionally, reports indicate that Interior Minister Vahe Ghazaryan has stepped down, as confirmed by a spokesperson and Russia's TASS news agency.

Armenia's political landscape is witnessing significant changes as Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan calls for the resignation of several key officials. The move, described by Pashinyan as driven by systemic issues rather than personal grievances, was communicated via a Facebook post.

Simultaneously, Russia's TASS state news agency confirmed the resignation of Interior Minister Vahe Ghazaryan. His departure was verified by his spokesperson, signaling a broader reshuffle within the Armenian government.

These developments mark a potential shift in Armenia's internal political structure as the government addresses underlying issues publicly acknowledged by Pashinyan himself.

(With inputs from agencies.)

https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/politics/3161455-political-shake-up-in-armenia

[MosJan]

 

[Yervant1]

Azatutyun.am

 

Official Explains Armenian Boycott Of COP29

Նոյեմբեր 21, 2024

• Astghik Bedevian

 

AZERBAIJAN - Pedestrian walk in front of the venue for COP 29 Summit in Baku on November 10, 2024.

 

Armenia has not participated in the COP29 climate summit in Baku because of Azerbaijan’s failure to free any of at least 23 Armenian prisoners held by it, a senior official in Yerevan indicated on Thursday.

The Armenian government still did not rule out that participation just as the annual UN summit on climate change kicked off on November 11. None of its representatives eventually flew to the Azerbaijani capital for the two-week event.

“As regards the event held in Baku, something had to take place so that Armenia could participate,” said Sargis Khandanian, the chairman of the Armenian parliament committee on foreign relations. “And given that Armenian prisoners are being held in Baku, it is logical that Armenian and Azerbaijan should have achieved some result on this issue, that Azerbaijan should have freed and repatriated prisoners. But that didn’t happen.”

“In my personal view, without that [release] it was very hard to imagine Armenia’s participation in the event,” Khandanian told RFE/RL’s Armenian Service.

Armenian press reports said late last month that Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan is ready to attend COP29 if the Azerbaijani side agrees to release some captives. Yerevan had dropped its objections to Baku’s bid to host the global summit last December as part of a deal that led to the release of 32 other Armenian soldiers and civilians held in Azerbaijani captivity.

Khandanian revealed earlier that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian proposed to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev last month that their foreign ministers hold two-day intensive talks to iron out their remaining differences and sign a bilateral peace treaty before COP29. The senior lawmaker allied to Pashinian suggested on Thursday that Baku lacks the “political will” to strike such a deal.

“Armenia does have the political will to finalize and sign the peace treaty within days or weeks,” he said.

Baku makes the signing of the treaty conditional on a change of Armenia’s constitution which it says contains territorial claims to Azerbaijan.

 

 

https://www.azatutyun.am/a/33211122.html?fbclid=IwY2xjawGtEbhleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHUkQh6erJuF1n-87q7IBVdaQI0Rr69pv69dG65nphT15KaO4OB0s8hnU8w_aem_2x63QULZkJZz5nKHMthTYg

[MosJan]

 

[Yervant1]

Jamestown Foundation

Nov 27 2024

 

Pashinyan’s Fresh-Faced Populism Signals Start of Armenian Election Cycle

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 21 Issue: 171

By: Onnik James Krikorian

November 27, 2024 03:46 PM 

 

Executive Summary:

• As Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s ratings continue to decline, a viral video of him shaving has been interpreted as the start of the government’s preparations for the next parliamentary elections, which are scheduled for mid-June 2026 at the latest.
• The resignation of key officials has strengthened this opinion, instructed to do so by messages sent to them by Pashinyan. Many believe the prime minister is attempting to shirk responsibility for his flagging ratings by blaming others within his team.
• Armenia’s opposition echoes this view and links the move to the need to regain political legitimacy in Armenia through elections to sign an agreement to normalize relations with Azerbaijan and eventually hold a referendum on changing the constitution.

---

On November 14, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan lambasted the country’s 1990 Declaration of Independence, equating the historical document to the non-existence of the current Republic (Azatutyun, November 14). The issue of the declaration, which contains claims to what is considered sovereign Azerbaijani territory in the form of the former Soviet-era “Mountainous Region of Karabakh,” then an autonomous district, has proven to be the main obstacle to Yerevan and Baku finally concluding a long-anticipated peace agreement (see EDM, January 31, June 25, September 11). The outcry about these comments was significant but soon diminished, perhaps by design, when Pashinyan later the same evening posted a video on social media shaving off his now trademark beard (Facebook.com/surenyants;News.am; Instagram.com/nikolpashinyan_official, November 14). Although unshaven for his career prior to the 2018 street protests that brought him to power, Pashinyan has sported a beard ever since and created a new post-revolutionary image (see EDM, May 3, 2018, April 26, 2019). While some media took a light-hearted approach to the change, others were more sarcastic, with one regional analyst asking if this was “the end of the revolution” (X.com/Tigartsakh, November 14; OC Media, November 15).

Pashinyan has long been a populist ready to distract attention from controversial decisions (AIR Center, September 7, 2020; Nikoghosyan, Ter-Matevosyan, “From ‘revolution’ to war: deciphering Armenia’s populist foreign policy-making process, ” August 25, 2022; Commonspace, April 11). Adding to this speculation that political intent was behind the move, many noticed that Pashinyan appeared to wink at the camera at the end (Hraparak, November 26). In an interview aired on November 22, Pashinyan finally spoke about the new image, claiming it was done to celebrate one of his daughter’s birthdays (News.am, November 23). Nonetheless, his critics maintain that along with his regularly posted social media videos, including resuming bicycling at home and on official visits abroad, the real reason was “political puppetry” ahead of elections due to be held no later than June 2026 (Euasianet, October 2, 2018; News.am, November 18).

Critics also pointed to high-profile changes in his government when a rumor started to circulate on November 17, a Sunday, that he had instructed key officials to submit their resignations the following day. The instructions were sent via WhatsApp messenger or short message service (SMS) (Hraparak, November 18; News.am, November 22). Many analysts saw the dismissal as marking the start of the pre-election cycle in Armenia (Hraparak; Facebook.com/surenyants, November 18).

Media pointed out that the extent of the dismissals was unprecedented, especially as they were proceeded by a much-publicized tirade of criticism against members of his own government (EVN Report, November 20). Some also noted, however, that many of the replacements were women, leading one Azerbaijani analyst to suggest that the changes were made to appease the European Union who consider higher gender diversity in government as a sign of democratization (Facebook.com/farhad.mammadov.35, November 21). While the observation may be correct, Armenian analysts rule this out as the change’s primary motivation (Youtube.com/civilnet, November 21).

The dismissals followed Pashinyan’s harsh criticism of his government the previous week. Among those messaged were the heads of the Supreme Judicial Council, the Investigative Committee, the Anti-Corruption Committee, the State Revenue Committee, and the Ministers of Interior and Infrastructure. Media speculated that the demand was rooted in Pashinyan’s desire to reverse his diminishing popularity ahead of the 2026 vote amid widespread public apathy (Eurasianet, October 24). Some consider that the vote might even be called earlier next year (Azatutyun, November 18). Similar to the opposition, most analysts consider that the move marks the start of preparing for the next elections, especially by removing others whom he can blame for failing to trust the government among the population (Azatutyun, November 18). Pashinyan maintains that the removals were not “personal, but systemic,” as more allegations have surfaced that he was guided only by salvaging his reputation by sacrificing the officials (Eurasianet, November 18).

In October, in a survey by the International Republican Institute, only 16 percent of respondents expressed trust in his leadership (International Republican Institute, October 18). Further, only 20 percent of respondents said they would vote for Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party if parliamentary elections were held that Sunday. The symbolism of both shaving his beard and instructing subordinates to resign was not lost on many veteran commentators on local politics. There has also been much focus on how Civil Contract has applied pressure to increase its influence and standing in rural communities (Civilnet.am, November 27). The failed appearance of a pro-opposition cleric attempting to force Pashinyan’s resignation earlier this year was a further sign that the government would have to act, they opine (see EDM, May 14, June 5; Aliq Media, November 18).

Adding to the speculation, Pashinyan has further explained the dismissals and replacements as part of a new strategy to distinguish between officials who had served in the governments of his unpopular predecessors and those who took part in or eventually supported his much-touted 2018 revolution (Azatutyun, November 26). Some, however, are refusing to leave their positions. According to press reports, two Civil Contract members of parliament initially ignored the message to resign their parliamentary mandates. One did so, while the other refused to (Azatutyun, November 19, 20). The Anti-Corruption Committee summoned the renegade deputy (Azatutyun, November 22). The opposition claims that ideological differences could also be the reason for removing the deputies (Hraparak, November 26).

The General Prosecutor’s Office has also reportedly opened cases against the dismissed head of the Supreme Judicial Council and Minister of Justice, though it denies the claims (Azatutyun, November 26). On November 24, there was an interview with Pashinyan in which he spent one hour discussing the changes until dedicating the remaining 30 minutes to outlining Armenia’s position in ongoing talks to normalize relations with Azerbaijan. Some speculate that Pashinyan might be addressing both issues at the same time. Even though nothing indicates this, the opposition maintains that the embattled prime minister seeks re-election by mid-2026 as a prerequisite to holding a controversial referendum to change the constitution in 2027 (Hraparak, November 21).

In one video discussion, two Armenian political commentators linked the shaving of his beard, the high-profile dismissals via resignation, and preparing for new elections. They further maintain that Pashinyan seeks assured control over power structures to prevent any challenge to his leadership within his own party structure. They also compare such a possibility to the palace coup that deposed Armenia’s first president, Levon Ter-Petrosyan, when he too was ready to sign a compromise peace agreement with Azerbaijan in 1998 amid a weak government, weaker opposition, and widespread public apathy and precarious legitimacy (Youtube.com/civilnet, November 21). Pashinyan’s recent actions point to a potential effort to consolidate power, bolster public confidence, and navigate the precarious road to potential re-election, all while balancing the delicate and contentious issue of peace with Azerbaijan.

 

https://jamestown.org/program/pashinyans-fresh-faced-populism-signals-start-of-armenian-election-cycle/

[Yervant1]

Transitions, Czech Rep.

Dec 3 2024

 

What’s Next for Armenia?

by Arshaluys Barseghyan

As Georgia-EU relations decline after Georgian Dream backtracks on EU integration, where does this leave Armenia as the region’s only state with serious EU aspirations? From OC Media.

Since the 26 October Georgian parliamentary elections, which were found by both local and international observers to have had serious violations, Georgian Dream has solidified their hold on the government and has continued to turn its back on the West. 

The prospect has led to some doubts in how far Armenia may be able to push its own EU aspirations.

Tigran Grigoryan, a political analyst and the head of the Regional Centre for Democracy and Security, a Yerevan-based think-tank, foresees a shift in Armenia’s proactive Western approach but no “serious crisis” in relations with the West. 

“At his latest press conference, Pashinyan hinted that the outcome of the Georgian elections could impact Armenia’s foreign policy decision-making. This means that if [Georgian Dream] remains in power in Georgia, it is likely that Yerevan will tone down its pro-Western rhetoric,” wrote Grigoryan on X, the day of the Georgian elections.

Benyamin Poghosyan, a senior research fellow at the APRI Armenia think tank, also noted before the elections that if Georgian Dream won, it would mean a continued “drift away from the West” and that if Donald Trump in turn came to power in the U.S., that American involvement in the South Caucasus “might decrease.”

“In this scenario, Armenia might have to readjust its foreign policy and relations with regional powers, perhaps considering cooperation with non-Western organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS,” wrote Poghosyan.

In an interview with CivilNet on 31 October, Grigoryan highlighted that even before the Georgian elections, he observed shifts in the Armenian ruling power’s rhetoric and actions, noticing “a certain balancing.”

Among such actions was Armenia’s participation in October in the BRICS summit in Russia and in the 3+3 Regional Cooperation Platform in Turkey, organizations Poghosyan also noted in his analysis. 

With Georgian Dream’s victory, Grigoryan believes that an emphasis will now be placed on regulating the relations with Armenia’s immediate neighbors, Turkey and Azerbaijan, with a much greater motivation to reach a peace agreement with Azerbaijan “at all costs.”

“In this situation, Armenia once again finds itself in isolation. If for the past 20 years, Armenia was the only country seeking closer relations with Russia, now the opposite picture is emerging. Armenia is the only country [in the region] that seems to want to have closer relations with the West,” Grigoryan told Civilnet.

Similarly, Poghosyan argued in an interview from 29 October that it would be “very challenging” for Armenia to become the only “pro-Western country” in the South Caucasus and to “bring the West into the South Caucasus” because this might put Armenia against all regional powers. This, in turn, could create “very negative implications for Armenia,” which suffered defeat and remains “significantly vulnerable for potential new Azerbaijani attacks,” in addition to dealing with an unresolved normalization process with Turkey.

A Bridge Connecting the South Caucasus to the EU?

During the pre-election campaign, Georgian opposition leaders were vocal about the possible impact a Georgian Dream victory could have on European integration, seeking to attract Armenian voters. 

Two days before the election, the third president of Georgia, Mikheil Saakashvili wrote in Armenian on Facebook, telling the Georgian-Armenian community that “the existence of our neighbor Armenia, as well as the fate of peace in the Caucasus, depends on Georgia’s return to the European path.”

Prior to this, at the end of September, Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili stated that Armenia “needs a Georgian bridge” in its European aspirations. 

“After the elections on 26 October, either Georgia will return to its European path, I am sure of this […], or Georgia will no longer exist, and this will be a tragedy not only for us, but also for neighboring Armenia, which is developing in the same direction and which needs a Georgian bridge, and this will be a tragedy for the Caucasus and the representation of Europe in this region,” Zourabichvili said.

However, Sergey Lagodinsky, a member of the European Parliament representing Germany, told Armenian reporters the day prior to the Georgian elections that Armenia could turn into that bridge, despite finding itself  “in a tough situation if there is further negative development in Georgia.”

The “situation might create unique chances for Armenia, as the country could become some sort of a bridge connecting the EU with the South Caucasus [politically], as well as with the whole region to the east,” Lagodinsy said. 

Unlike Lagodinsky, Stefan Meister – the head of the Centre for Order and Governance in Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia at the German Council on Foreign Relations – told OC Media that because of its geographic location as a landlocked country, Armenia cannot replace Georgia. 

Moreover, Meister did not see “such a pro-European or transatlantic-oriented society” in Armenia, as compared to Georgia. 

“For Armenia in its current geopolitical and security situation, it is as much important to have good relations with its other neighbors, especially Iran but also Turkey. That will limit its role as a bridge to Europe,” Meister told OC Media, adding that he could imagine Armenia becoming “a hub for civil society in the region if the government can guarantee safety of people.”

Is EU Integration Still Possible?

Peter Stano, a spokesperson for the European Commission’s Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, told OC Media that each country in the region “has its role to play.”

“The bilateral partnerships the EU develops are about the partners concerned and not an instrument to use to ‘replace’ or ‘complement’ partnerships or relations with others,” Stano said.

“Georgia progressing or not progressing on its EU path has nothing to do with and has no influence on the bilateral relationship of the EU with Armenia. What we do with Armenia responds only and exclusively to the level of ambition of Armenia,” Stano added. 

Stano also highlighted Yerevan’s statement from October 2023, expressing readiness to move closer to the EU, which responded with the launch of work on a new EU-Armenia Partnership Agenda, which “is dedicated to continue developing cooperation between the EU and Armenia, and both sides are determined to make progress on this.”

“We are proceeding well. Just two months ago, we launched visa liberalization dialogue, which is a clear sign that we are moving forward with the Partnership Agenda. Our relations are developing on a positive track; they are stronger than ever, and there continues to be a mutual interest to advance them further,” Stano told OC Media. 

The Armenian Foreign Ministry refrained from commenting on the possible impact of the Georgian elections on Armenia’s foreign policy.

While the authorities have been rather noncommittal in their statements, Olesya Vartanyan, a regional expert on security issues and conflicts in the South Caucasus, pointed at the timing of the launch of visa liberalization talks with Armenia as a form of “confirmation” to the Armenian government that there is still room for cooperation. 

Despite the fact that Armenia has sought such dialogue for a while, Vartanyan believed it was launched in September before the Georgian elections “on purpose,” taking into the consideration that Georgia “would be going through some turbulence.” 

“If we were to have a situation when Brussels first cancels visa liberalization for Georgia, and [then] there is a conversation on launching it in Armenia, it would have raised many more questions and would have created many more problems,” Vartanyan told OC Media.

Vartanyan also emphasized that the EU often thinks geographically when considering cooperation and integration, “but that does not necessarily mean that the Georgian election automatically closes the door for Armenia.”

However, she noted that if some in Armenia’s leadership are seeking an excuse to cancel some of the processes or to stop thinking about how to deepen the relationship, they can find a pretext, such as the Georgian elections.

Similarly, Ondrej Ditrych, a senior analyst at the EU Institute for Security Studies, told OC Media that Armenia could have an advantage as the only state in the South Caucasus with real European aspirations. 

“It is true that this also means certain limitations in terms of the ultimate goal of EU membership – at least as long as Georgia’s integration is effectively stalled. But much can be achieved in the meantime – in terms of limiting dependencies and vulnerabilities related to them, institutional capacity-building, or easing mobility. I don’t think there are reasons for desperation. It is important to take a long, strategic view.”

For Meister, however, it was important that expectations were kept realistic. EU membership in the near future or any close integration with the EU for Armenia is “neither in Armenia’s interest nor has the EU capacities for this.”

“But to develop close ties in areas like human exchange, security, energy, and economic cooperation is possible, and opening the visa negotiations is one important step. Definitely the situation in Georgia will impact these developments, but from the EU side it means more resources and attention for Armenia, and if Yerevan is able to use this in its reform process without alienating its direct neighbors it can really come closer to the EU without direct integration and too much alienation of Russia,” Meister told OC Media.

A Question of Economics?

While much of the discussion has related to Armenia–EU relations, that is not the only area in Armenia experts expect to see affected following the Georgian elections. 

According to Vartanyan, Armenia’s Western integration is “the most theoretical” issue in terms of the risks for Armenia. Instead, she highlighted more short-term and longer potential impacts that Armenia should pay attention to regarding what is happening in Georgia. 

One of these short-term risks could be “some violence or turbulence” in Tbilisi, which could destabilize the situation in the country, creating “some problems for the Armenian cargo that uses Georgia as a transit country to travel to the West, but to Russia first of all.”  

Another short-term risk Vartanyan highlighted is potential sanctions.

“When the U.S. sanctioned just two Georgian officials in September, it right away had an effect on the Georgian currency – it started devaluating,” Vartanyan said. 

“If we are to see more sanctions and more restrictions, in that sense there will be an immediate effect in terms of the problem of the Georgian economy and Georgian businesses. Especially in the last couple of years they started investing in Armenia, and recently we had a Georgian bank that purchased a big share of one of the biggest Armenian banks.”

As for the long-term risks, Vartanyan pointed to the potential increase of Russian investment and the decline of Western investors, who think more about the region rather than solely Armenia. 

Vartanyan told OC Media that if Georgia deepens its crisis with Western countries – and gets closer with Russia, including the resumption of diplomatic ties – there would be an increased Russian presence in “some key projects,” including transit roads that interest both foreign investors and Russia. 

This would mean greater Russian influence in the region, a factor Armenia must consider when discussing its cooperation with the West, as well as for its domestic development.

“To be honest, the economy, the sanctions issue, and also the Russian presence in my view are much more important than the entire conversation about whether Armenia goes to the West or not because of the Georgia elections. You can still work on Western integration even with Georgia going through some turbulence, but if we are to see more sanctions and a Russian presence in Georgia, that’s much more serious for Armenia.”

…

Arshaluys Barseghyan is a journalist focusing on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, politics, and social and gender issues. She is also a close observer of the media environment of Armenia, as well as an advocate of fact-checking and media literacy. This piece originally appeared in OC Media.  Republished by permission.

https://tol.org/client/article/whats-next-for-armenia.html

[Yervant1]

The Pinnacle Gazette

Dec 4 2024

 

 

Armenia Navigates Tensions Between West And Russia

Prime Minister Pashinyan reassures ties with Russia amid growing Western engagement

Armenia is finding itself at the crossroads of geopolitical tensions, caught between the West and Russia as it navigates its security and diplomatic future. This situation has intensified due to the recent shifts in Russian-Armenian relations and Armenia's growing engagement with Western nations.

Many observers worldwide have redirected their focus toward Armenia as the country explores new pathways to bolster its national security against the backdrop of regional conflicts and historical ties. The increasing strains between Armenia and its traditional ally, Russia, have sparked debates about the nation's foreign policy direction.

At the heart of this transformation, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has maintained significant clarity, addressing concerns head-on during various press conferences. He remarked, "We are not receiving signals from the West to kick out Russia from Armenia, to break off relations with it," reassuring both domestic and international audiences about the complexity of Armenia's geopolitical stance.

Despite claims from Kremlin officials, including Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who accused Western nations of pressuring Armenia to remove Russian military presence, Pashinyan has firmly refuted these narratives. Instead, he emphasized the importance of constructive dialogue with Russia, calling for more transparency and addressing concerns about Russia's role as Armenia's security partner.

The dynamics surrounding the Lachin corridor, which serves as the only road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia, add another layer of complexity to the situation. Pashinyan pointed out Azerbaijan's unilateral actions, such as illegal checkpoint installations, which conflict with agreements forged during peace talks mediated by Russia. His calls for adherence to trilateral statements indicate Armenia's expectation of fulfillment from its partners.

Meanwhile, Armenian parliament speaker Alen Simonyan confirmed the intent to protect Armenia's sovereignty. During statements to the press, Simonyan acknowledged public concerns surrounding Russia's effectiveness as the peacekeeper and stated, "There is no question of vector, there is a question of ensuring Armenia’s security." He hinted at exploring alternative partnerships to supplement existing security measures.

 

The tensions have not gone unnoticed by Russian officials. The Russian Foreign Ministry has openly criticized varied aspects of Armenia’s foreign policy. Spokesperson Maria Zakharova alluded to discrepancies, particularly around the recent cancellation of trilateral talks intended to address peace agreements with Azerbaijan.

Citing earlier frustrations over inadequate response from the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization), Armenia has assessed its relationships with various Western nations, resulting in significant discussions focused on mutual security goals. Highlighting these moves indicative of Armenia's readiness to expand diplomatic relations, Pashinyan mentioned interactions with Western military partners as not intending to shun Russia but as efforts to broaden security networks.

On the Western front, the EU has voiced interest in establishing civil missions aimed at enhancing stability and de-escalation efforts, yet this has incurred the ire of Russian officials. Much to Russia’s disapproval, Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu underscored the enhancement of Western embassies and missions, alleging attempts to erode Russia's peacekeeping operations and foment regional conflict. He insisted, "The West is trying to increase its presence and discredit the Russian peacekeeping policy, pushing Russia out of the South Caucasus."

At the same time, Armenia's engagement with European nations continues to grow, tantamount to seeking diversified connections beyond the traditional Russian alliances. The government has been actively discussing economic and military cooperation with European partners, aiming to pursue increased funding and defense resources for national security.

 

Armenia’s shifting focus has prompted reactions from Moscow as they work to reengage and reinforce historical alliances. Russia has expressed defensive capabilities, promising assistance to maintain regional security amid these changing dynamics, cautioning Armenia against possible security vacuums following such shifts.

Reinforcing its commitment to maintain strategic relationships, the Armenian government has advanced proposals aimed at revitalizing economic ties with Europe. These efforts have caught the attention of potential investors and trade partners eager to explore Armenia as a gateway to the region.

While the country pivots, it contends with emigration pressures exacerbated by its geopolitical climate. According to Pashinyan, nearly 90% of emigration stems from regional policy concerns, showcasing the far-reaching impact of foreign relations on domestic stability.

Political analysts have expressed mixed sentiments about Armenia’s balancing act; some laud the strategic outreach toward the West as necessary modernization efforts, whilst others remain skeptical about abandoning long-standing Russia ties altogether.

 

Armenia's path forward remains treacherous, subject to the shifting tides of geopolitics. Given its historic reliance on Russia, the change detonates new dialogues, stirring hopes for greater independence amid broader strategic calculations on the international stage. Nevertheless, the nuanced engagement with Western allies will demand ardent management of internal dynamics and regional relations.

At the entrance of this transformative phase, Armenia grapples with what security truly means and how best to secure stability. Internal negotiations echo the pressures from both Eastern and Western fronts, leaving Armenia at such pivotal crossroads where decisions taken today may shape its future direction for generations.

With the Western influence potentially growing, the armor of age-old diplomacy and recalibration toward securing national interests continues to resonate among Armenia's leadership. The future may not be easy, but Armenia is committed to carving its path, balancing global interests amid national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

https://evrimagaci.org/tpg/armenia-navigates-tensions-between-west-and-russia-75943

[MosJan]

 

[MosJan]

😪

[Yervant1]

Mediamax, Armenia

Dec 6 2024

 

 

Jeffrey Sachs: “The US will never save Armenia”

Yerevan /Mediamax/. American economist and researcher, Columbia University professor Jeffrey Sachs believes that “the United States will never save Armenia.”

 

 

“There is a kind of myth - the U.S. will save us. I have experienced that myth all over the world. I know that the United States will never save Armenia. Not because it has anything against Armenia, but because 99% of Americans don’t know where Armenia is, and don’t care. I’m not meaning to be cruel, I’m just meaning to be factual. And I’ve seen all my life, countries side with the U.S. on the expectation that wonderful things will happen, and then nothing good comes of it. In fact, often something very bad comes of it,” the professor said in an interview to Conversations on Groong podcast.

Jeffrey Sachs noted that in spring of 2008 Mikheil Saakashvili, then leader of Georgia, was giving a speech at the Council on Foreign Relations in the United States, saying: “We’re the center of Europe, we’re a European country, we’re going to be members of NATO, we’re going to be members of the European Union.”

 

“I walked out and I called my wife. And I said, that man is crazy. He’s going to get his country destroyed,” Sachs confessed.

 

“My advice is always this: look at the map and try to have good relations with your neighbors. This I say to any country,” the professor of Columbia University said. Sachs believes that six countries should be talking with each other systematically – the three countries of the South Caucasus and three regional powers – Russia, Turkey and Iran.

 

“Look at the BRICS process, very important for Armenia, because the BRICS now includes Iran. It includes Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, India. These are all relevant countries for Armenia, economically and geopolitically as well. No guarantee of success, but a lot better than saying NATO is going to save us. That isn’t going to work,” Sachs noted.

https://mediamax.am/en/news/foreignpolicy/56433/

[MosJan]

 

[MosJan]