Aliyev Dynastic Transistion

[DominO123]

BTW: I heard from a forum, that Aliyev died.

 

 

------------------

 

 

 

ILHAM ALIYEV’S APPOINTMENT AS AZERBAIJAN’S PM SETS STAGE FOR DYNASTIC TRANSITION

8/04/03

 

Azerbaijan’s parliament on August 4 approved the appointment of ailing President Heidar Aliyev’s son, Ilham, as prime minister. The move, denounced by an opposition leader as a "usurpation of power," clears the way for a dynastic-style transfer of power in the oil-rich Caucasus nation.

 

Ilham’s appointment sends the clearest signal yet that the elder Aliyev’s tenure as Azerbaijan’s paramount political leader is coming to an end. Heidar Aliyev has been hospitalized at a Turkish military facility since early July and is reported to be terminally ill. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Under a constitutional amendment approved during a summer 2002 referendum, Azerbaijan’s prime minister becomes the interim president in the event of that the incumbent chief executive either dies in office or is incapacitated. Ilham and Heidar Aliyev are also the ruling New Azerbaijan Party’s candidates in presidential elections, now scheduled for October 15.

 

After limited debate, parliament approved Ilham Aliyev’s as prime minister by a 101-1 vote. Opposition MPs in the 125-seat legislature boycotted the vote. The outgoing prime minister, Artur Rasizade, did not immediately provide a reason for his sudden resignation, although he later reportedly based his decision on "health reasons."

 

Isa Gambar, head of the Musavat Party, characterized the move as "a usurpation of power" and said opposition forces would strive to counteract the ruling party’s political maneuvers. "This is an attempt to play out a neo-monarchist scenario in Azerbaijan," Gambar said in a television interview. [For additional information see the accompanying EurasiaNet Q&A].

 

Speaking on state television after his elevation, Ilham praised his father’s policies as "brilliant traditions," adding that his chief goal would be to maintain stability. "The aim of us all is to make Azerbaijan a strong and economically powerful country," Ilham said. "I am not in favor of any abrupt actions and think that everything should be implemented gradually."

 

Ilham’s emergence as the elder Aliyev’s likely successor has long been anticipated by Azerbaijan watchers. Heidar Aliyev has for years been laying the groundwork for just such a political transition. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. However, the president’s illness clearly forced an acceleration of the process, and some observers believe Ilham may now have a tougher time consolidating his authority than he might have had his father had more time to groom his son for power.

 

In recent years, political analysts have questioned Ilham’s desire to lead Azerbaijan’s government, as well as his abilities to govern. There are also indications that Ilham does not command the loyalty of all factions within the New Azerbaijan Party. Unconfirmed reports indicated that as many as 50 top party members, dissatisfied with Ilham’s political skills, recently sent out feelers to opposition leaders about finding a suitable political arrangement that would reduce the risks of confrontation. According to at least one observer, Ilham may himself serve as a placeholder. "His political ambition and skills are believed to be low," the industry newsletter World Markets Analysis reported August 4.

 

In approaching the presidential election campaign, Ilham has taken a tough line on opposition political parties. In a late July television interview, he denounced opposition media for conducting a "slander campaign" surrounding 80-year-old Heidar Aliyev’s health woes, adding that government critics "simply want to commit sabotage." Ilham went on to hint that the government might resort to force to prevent the opposition leaders from achieving "their dirty aims."

 

When pressed for specifics on his economic priorities, Ilham Aliyev was evasive, in addition to being defensive about his qualifications. "Certainly, I have accumulated enough knowledge in this area [the economy]," the new prime minister told a state television interviewer. "I ought to analyze this sector thoroughly and then answer the question [on economic priorities]."

 

Ilham Aliyev’s prior governmental experience is limited. His official biography says he was born in 1961 and graduated from the prestigious Moscow State Institute for International Relations in 1982. His rise within Azerbaijan’s political and economic hierarchy began after Heidar Aliyev’s return to power in Azerbaijan in 1993. Most recently, Ilham served as vice president of the state oil company, SOCAR, and was first deputy chairman of the New Azerbaijan Party. He also was elected as a vice president of the Council of Europe’s Parliamentary Assembly (PACE). According to the Turan news agency, he resigned both his SOCAR and PACE posts.

 

For now, Ilham Aliyev, along with the rest of the ruling establishment, is maintaining the fiction that the elder Aliyev remains in charge of the day-to-day functions of state. "As for the president’s health, it is good. He planned to return a couple of days ago, but the doctors wanted some additional treatment," Ilham told parliament on August 4. "However, I believe he will return to Azerbaijan soon."

 

 

Editor’s Note: Turkey-based EurasiaNet contributor Mevlut Katik provided information contained in this report.

 

Email this article | Printer-Friendly Version

Posted August 4, 2003 © Eurasianet

http://www.eurasianet.org

 

 

 

 

The Central Eurasia Project aims, through its website, meetings, papers, and grants, to foster a more informed debate about the social, political and economic developments of the Caucasus and Central Asia. It is a program of the Open Society Institute-New York. The Open Society Institute-New York is a private operating and grantmaking foundation that promotes the development of open societies around the world by supporting educational, social, and legal reform, and by encouraging alternative approaches to complex and controversial issues.

 

The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily represent the position of the Open Society Institute and are the sole responsibility of the author or authors.

Edited August 4, 2003 by Fadix

[MosJan]

AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT SEEKS MEDICAL TREATMENT IN US, AMID BUILDING TENSION IN BAKU

8/06/03

 

Ailing Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliyev departed a Turkish hospital August 6 for ongoing treatment in the United States. The move comes amid escalating tension in Baku over the elevation of the president’s son, Ilham, to prime minister, and the looming possibility of a dynastic political succession.

 

A representative of the Office of Turkey’s Chief of the General Staff officially announced Aliyev’s transfer from the Gulhane military hospital in Ankara to the Cleveland Clinic in Ohio. That top Turkish military officials appeared to be involved in the decision indicates that Aliyev’s health is viewed as a sensitive geopolitical issue with potential ramifications for Caspian Basin oil and gas development and the construction of energy export routes. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

 

The news that Aliyev was headed for the Cleveland Clinic – where in recent years he has been treated for heart, prostate and other ailments – offers substantive proof that he is alive. The Azerbaijani president had largely stayed out of public view since his hospitalization in Turkey in early July. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In recent days, rumors spread in Azerbaijan, fuelled by opposition media reports, that Aliyev had died.

 

Top Azerbaijani officials have insisted that Aliyev remains in charge of day-to-day affairs and that his health is "normal." But the fact that the president headed to the United States for further treatment, rather than return to Azerbaijan, lends credence to opposition claims that Aliyev is seriously ill.

 

Aliyev’s transfer from the Turkish military hospital to Ankara’s Esenboga Airport took place under tight security, which helped prevent journalists from filming or photographing the infirm Azerbaijani leader. Azerbaijan’s Turan New Agency reported that Aliyev was conscious, but unable to move. Turkish doctors reportedly accompanied Aliyev on the trip. Turan said Aliyev may undergo another heart operation, provided that doctors determine he is strong enough to endure such a procedure.

 

Political analysts in Baku believe those in Aliyev’s inner circle want to keep the president alive for as long as possible – at least until the presidential election scheduled for October 15. Doing so could provide an element of stability during what already promises to be a turbulent campaign period.

 

In becoming prime minister August 4, Ilham moved to first in line to succeed his father in the event that the elder Aliyev died or became unable to perform his duties. Opposition media outlets have portrayed the appointment as a "coup d’etat." Administration opponents have insisted the process under which Ilham became prime minister violated the country’s constitution. They also maintain that the country’s legislation prohibits a sitting prime minister from running for president. Ilham is the ruling New Azerbaijan Party’s candidate in the presidential vote.

 

"The [Aliyev] family’s logic is that even a small part of the state economy, which is the family’s monopoly, cannot be given to any other person," said a commentary in the Azadliq newspaper.

 

In an indication that administration officials are troubled by the opposition charges, Ilham Aliyev announced that he would take a leave of absence in order to run for president. A statement released by the prime minister’s office August 6 said first deputy premier, Artur Rasizade – the very man that Ilham replaced two days earlier – would serve as the interim head of government.

 

Opposition rhetoric indicates that Azerbaijan is approaching a pivotal moment in its political development. Opposition leaders clearly believe that if Ilham Aliyev manages to succeed his father as president, all hope for the development of a pluralistic political environment would be lost over the medium, and possibly even the long term. As such, Azerbaijan’s political opposition appears to be gearing up to make a stand, even pondering violent action to prevent from being shut out of the political process.

 

"Everyone knows very well that Heidar Aliyev was planning to transfer power to his son," prominent opposition editor Rauf Arifoglu wrote in the Yeni Musavat daily on August 5. "Still, at the bottom of our hearts, we all hoped that such impudence could not happen here. Or at least, we though that America and Turkey would not allow them [Aliyev’s administration] to do so."

 

Meanwhile, a commentary in the opposition Hurriyyat daily raised the spectre of civil conflict, hinting that the political opposition, feeling it had nothing to lose, might try to pre-empt a crackdown with vigorous protest action.

 

"Observers believe that by this move [ilham Aliyev’s appointment as prime minister], authorities have in fact created grounds for chaos inside the country," the commentary said. "Political circles realize that the next step after Ilham Aliyev’s appointment as prime minister will definitely be an attempt to make him president. Therefore, a harsh reaction inside the country to authorities’ illegitimate move is unavoidable."

 

 

Editor’s Note: Mevlut Katik is a London-based journalist and analyst. He is a former BBC correspondent and also worked for The Economist group

[joseph parikian]

An articale published in " Armenia now.com "

 

 

Outside Eye: A non-Armenian's view of life in his adopted home

 

 

 

 

 

By Tony Halpin

Editor This has been a momentous week for the future of the Caucasus. The long anticipated transfer of power in Azerbaijan began to take effect with the ailing grey fox Heidar Aliev apparently on his deathbed, first in Turkey and now in the United States, and his son Ilham confirmed as Prime Minister and heir-in-waiting. The former Soviet Union's first dynastic succession makes democracy a matter of genetic inheritance in Armenia's neighbor, a generation game that the presidential elections in October are expected only to affirm rather than to alter.

In Georgia, the jostling for power will soon begin to succeed the equally venerable Eduard Shevardnadze as President. Unlike in Azerbaijan, where the Aliev shuffle has been much rehearsed, nobody is predicting who will emerge as victor in Tbilisi or how. This is not so unusual - few people had heard of Vladimir Putin in early 1999 but by the end of that year he was acting President of Russia. However, the likelihood is that whoever wins in Georgia will be much closer in age to Robert Kocharyan and Ilham Aliev than to Eduard and Heidar.

 

Shevardnadze and Aliev are steeped in the history and governing techniques of Soviet times, they understand how to run things from the center and how to play the game of political survival. Uniquely in the region, independent Armenia has never turned to its former Communist boss when times got tough, though it came very close (some still insist it was more than close enough) during the 1998 presidential contest between Kocharyan and the late Karen Demirchyan. Kocharyan has always stood out in the region for the reason that he rose to power through a non-traditional and unexpected process.

 

Soon, however, he will be the senior political figure in the Caucasus. He will be the most experienced of a fresh generation of political leaders whose formative experiences owe nothing to the Soviet past but are instead the products of ethnic strife, economic collapse, and national uncertainty. They will share a common background and the question will be whether it produces a common language that meets the challenges of the time.

 

How will Kocharyan react to his elevated new status? Will it make him bolder in the search for peace and stability in the region? Or more guarded in the face of an unpredictable and possibly unstable regime?

 

How will Aliev junior seek to consolidate his grip on power? By playing a crude nationalist card over Nagorno Artsax? Or by advancing a national interest which sees a guarantee of peace as an essential prerequisite of real improvement for all the countries and peoples of the Caucasus?

 

It must be hoped that strategists on the Armenian side have been game-playing the probable scenarios that arise from the transfer of power in Azerbaijan. That they see where the opportunities and obstacles may arise. The region is entering a new landscape, which will reveal ultimately whether Kocharyan has what it takes to become a statesman or whether his ambitions and abilities are much more narrowly defined.

 

That seems a strange sentence given the cloud of suspicion that hovers over Kocharyan following the corrupted election process that delivered him a second term of office in March. Opposition parties preparing a fresh attempt to oust him from office, while Kocharyan's international reputation and that of Armenia have rarely if ever been lower. But the region is entering strange times and odd things can happen. Just look at

Azerbaijan.

 

Copyright ArmeniaNow 2002-2003. All rights reserved

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

Very interesting dont you think so