TINDERBOX NEXT DOOR: GROWING ETHNIC PROTESTS IN AZERBAIJAN MAY 'DE

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TINDERBOX NEXT DOOR: GROWING ETHNIC PROTESTS IN AZERBAIJAN MAY 'DETONATE' WAR AGAINST KARABAKH

 

http://www.armenianow.com/karabakh/42913/armenia_azerbaijan_baku_violence_revolution

KARABAKH | 29.01.13 | 11:06

 

Photo: www.azerireport.com

 

By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN

ArmeniaNow correspondent

 

The wave of protests that struck Azerbaijan last week may become a

detonator of a military adventure in the South Caucasus.

 

The incident in the Ismayilli region of Azerbaijan reminded of the

Arab Spring scenarios, thinks head of the Analytical Center on

Globalization and Regional Cooperation, political analyst Stepan

Grigoryan. In the current situation, in his opinion, it is possible

that official Baku will try to direct popular discontent against

Karabakh and replace public discontent with nationalism.

 

"It is possible that the Azerbaijani side will try to escalate the

situation along the line of contact of the armed forces of

Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan," the analyst said.

 

Expert of the Center for Central Asia studies and Caucasus Institute

of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Andrei Areshev

also thinks that Azerbaijani authorities will see an increased

temptation to redirect the anger of the society towards Karabakh.

 

"The authorities will agitate patriotic feelings among people to shift

their attention from internal problems to the 'enemies', and in

Azerbaijan Armenians and Karabakh are considered to be these enemies,"

he said.

 

In the provincial capital of Ismayilli people angered by the rule of

the Alekperov clan (one of this family is the regional governor, the

other is a minister in the central government of Azerbaijan) burned a

car and a hotel owned by representatives of the clan. This caused a

wave of protests countrywide reaching capital Baku that saw activation

of civic initiatives and opposition parties.

 

It is noteworthy that this happened during the same days when in

Mexico City local authorities dismantled the monument to the late

father of the current president, ex-president of Azerbaijan Heydar

Aliyev. It became not only a major blow to the credibility of the

Aliyev regime, but also a sign that the West is not against

dismantling the Aliyev regime also in the oil-rich country.

 

Autumn in Azerbaijan will see presidential elections and it is not

excluded that this time the West and the local opposition will be able

to change the regime with which it is difficult to work even for oil

companies. Last year was marked by a conflict between Aliyev and

British Petroleum, which is the main investor in the oil sector of

Azerbaijan. It was stated that oil reserves were running out in the

country, and it again became a blow to the regime.

 

Remarkably, on January 27 the police did not allow the leader of the

main opposition party, Musavat, Isa Gambar to enter the city of

Lankaran in the south of Azerbaijan. Two weeks ago, a Gambar motorcade

was also attacked at the entrance to Lankaran by people allegedly

trained for the purpose by the authorities.

 

Lankaran is a Lezghian-populated region of Azerbaijan, just like Guba

and Ismayilli, where the protest events took place. Experts say the

reactivation of the Lezghian national movement in Azerbaijan is what

bothers the Aliyev regime most. And if national movements of the

Lezghians and Talyshes, which are Iranian peoples who appeared inside

a Turkic Azerbaijan in 1918, gains momentum, it could lead as well to

the collapse of the Azerbaijani state. It is this very threat that may

make Aliyev embark on a military gambling in Karabakh by unleashing a

war against the de-facto independent republic. A few days ago

information appeared in the media that Azerbaijan had purchased T-300

Qasirqa missile systems from Turkey. These missiles are designed to

destroy enemy targets at a range of more than 100 kilometers.

 

South Caucasus geopolitics expert Anzhela Elibegova, referring to the

factors of internal policy in Azerbaijan, also mentions the Kurdish

issue. "The Azerbaijani opposition media write regularly that Kurds in

Azerbaijan enjoy 'special' rights. In Nakhichevan, the conventional

homeland of Heydar Aliyev, the majority of the population today are

Kurds, but during the years of the Aliyev rule they have settled

around on lands historically inhabited by the Talyshes and Lezgins,"

said Elibegova.

 

For his part, the American commentator on ethnic and religious

conflicts, James Dorsey, said that the Caucasus, including Azerbaijan,

is not immune to shocks such as those that have hit the Middle East

and North Africa of late.