Statue of a Dictator (Aliyev Clan)

[Yervant1]

France 24

Feb 7 2024

‘Outcome all but certain’: Azerbaijan's Aliyev expected to secure fifth term

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev is expected to secure a fifth consecutive term in presidential elections on February 7. Anita Khachaturova, a specialist in Armenia-Azerbaijan relations, talks to FRANCE 24 about what is at stake.

By:Elie SAIKALI

Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, who has been at the helm of the country for more than 20 years after succeeding his father, is standing for re-election in the February 7 presidential election. The 62-year-old autocrat is hoping to secure a fifth consecutive term as leader of this small, hydrocarbon-rich Caucasus country. It would be his second seven-year term since the country’s 2016 constitutional reform, which extended the presidential term from five to seven years.

President Aliyev secured 86 percent of the vote in the 2018 elections that the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe described as lacking in "genuine competition" and taking place in a "restrictive political environment".

Aliyev published a decree in December 2023 announcing that he was bringing the 2025 elections forward to February 7, 2024.

FRANCE 24 takes a look at the stakes of this snap presidential election with Anita Khachaturova, a researcher at the Free University of Brussels specialising in Armenia-Azerbaijan relations.

FRANCE 24: Has Aliyev become more powerful since the last elections?

Anita Khachaturova: Since the 2018 election, there has been the war in Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan has taken over the entire territory, which had been a source of dispute with Armenia since the late 1980s. Part of the territory had already been taken over in 2020. The rest was taken over a few months ago in September 2023, forcing the Armenians living there to leave in what amounts to ethnic cleansing.

This is a key, symbolic victory for President Aliyev, who touts himself as the man who has restored dignity to the Azerbaijani people and washed away the affront of humiliation and occupation inflicted on Azerbaijan by the Armenians. The victory in Nagorno-Karabakh has given new legitimacy to the president's position in the eyes of the Azerbaijani people, who view him as a providential figure who has restored Azerbaijan's territorial integrity.

However, it is important to understand the particular nature of Azerbaijan's political system when discussing the February elections. Azerbaijan is a highly repressive autocracy. The NGO Freedom House (which works to defend human rights and promote democratic change) ranks Azerbaijan among the worst states in terms of political rights and freedoms. The elections in Azerbaijan are not like those observed in democratic countries, European or otherwise. They are simply a plebiscite in favour of the president giving him a kind of political legitimacy on the international scene, but very little democratic legitimacy.

Aliyev inherited power in 2003 after his father died. The latter had governed the country since 1993 and was head of the KGB in Soviet Azerbaijan in the 1960s. As such, this family has ruled the country almost without interruption since the late 1960s. It operates as a clan system, running the country like a business. All the country's resources are monopolised by this family and those close to it.

Why have the presidential elections been brought forward to February?

On the strength of the victory in Nagorno-Karabakh – a victory that President Aliyev personally claims – these early elections may be perceived, from the outside, as a desire to consolidate his popular support, which he likely does have. (The war in Nagorno-Karabakh is not met with much opposition, even from among the regime's critics, with the exception of a handful of pro-peace activists who are extremely marginalised.) But this popularity is difficult to assess or estimate independently, given the political context in Azerbaijan.

Aliyev has maintained a steady policy of making threats and annexationist statements against Armenia, and his re-election may also serve to support future military campaigns against Armenian sovereignty. It is also accompanied by the extreme repression of the few independent journalists and activists who, by raising societal problems in the country, are seen as tarnishing the victory in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Is there any opposition to the presidential candidate in this election?

There is no opposition, no freedom of the press or even political opponents, as such. The presidential campaign is a dramatisation. We saw this recently, for example, during the debates held on Azerbaijani television, which were mocked by the population, particularly on social media.

This election has very little credibility. The outcome of the vote is all but certain. We know that Aliyev will be re-elected.

This article has been translated from the original in French.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240205-outcome-all-but-certain-azerbaijan-s-aliyev-expected-to-secure-fifth-term

[Yervant1]

Fake sultan's kangaroo election, typical for dictatorship countries!

eurasianet

Feb 7 2024

Same old, same old in Azerbaijan's snap presidential election What is new, however, is the conduct of elections in Karabakh, including in its abandoned former de facto capital, where President Aliyev cast his vote.Feb 7, 2024

Azerbaijan's presidential election on February 7 is on track to yield an entirely predictable result - incumbent Ilham Aliyev's resounding victory over a set of fake challengers.

According to exit poll results carried by state TV, Aliyev, who has led the country since 2003, had the support of 92.4 percent of voters.

Also predictable was the widespread evidence of fraud at dozens of polling stations under the same old methods.

One such method is carousel voting - the same voters being allowed to vote at multiple polling stations. Footage today captured the same people appearing and voting at different polling places in the capital Baku.

Another method, ballot stuffing, was captured by CCTV. In two pieces of footage, members of precinct electoral commissions are seen stuffing multiple ballots into the ballot boxes.

Cameras installed at polling stations are meant to allow the public to observe the election on the website of the Central Election Commission (CEC). But they were installed only at about 1,000 of the total 6,300 polling stations across the country.

Journalists on the ground also reported problems with access to the internet in and around the polling places.

According to the CEC, nearly 71 percent voter turnout was observed as of 5 pm, which is more than 4.5 million people. It's an improbable figure given that the winner was a foregone conclusion, public engagement was low, and the campaign was arguably the boringest in the country's history.

What was new in this election is the fact that for the first time ever, Azerbaijan held elections in its newly retaken territories in Karabakh. Some of those areas were regained as a result of the war against Armenia in 2020 and have been partially settled by Azerbaijanis expelled from there in the 1990s (and their descendants). And some were retaken last September as the Azerbaijani military seized the remainder of the region, leading the entire Armenian population to flee. This area includes the abandoned town of Khankandi, where President Aliyev and his family cast their votes. For over three decades the town, known to Armenians as Stepanakert, was the de facto capital of the now-defunct Nagorno-Karabakh Republic.

In an interview with local TV stations in January, Aliyev said the takeover of Karabakh was one of his reasons for calling a snap election back in December.

"This political campaign is also historic because it is happening, for the first time in the history of national statehood, after the liberation of Karabakh from occupation," the prominent news agency Report.az said in an editorial. "This is a very important step in terms of statehood. By conducting an important political campaign in the territories freed from occupation, the president once again demonstrated that the Constitution of Azerbaijan has been restored in the region. This is also a message to those who want to provoke Azerbaijan recently. The president also proved that the safety of the residents relocated to the region is ensured."

As of around 9:30 pm local time, the CEC has yet to announce its preliminary results.

Aliyev has already received congratulations from fellow authoritarian rulers Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus and Viktor Orban of Hungary.

If the exit poll result holds, Aliyev will win re-election by his biggest landslide yet. Up to now, his best result has been 89 percent in 2008.

https://eurasianet.org/same-old-same-old-in-azerbaijans-snap-presidential-election

 

[Yervant1]

 

First Post

India - Feb 8 2024

 

Azerbaijan president secures fifth term as expected after Karabakh win

 

The tallies indicate that Aliyev secured a staggering 92 per cent of the vote, with nearly all polling stations reporting their results

President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev has clinched his fifth consecutive term in elections, official results showed on Wednesday, an outcome widely anticipated following his significant triumph over Armenian separatists last year.

The tallies indicate that Aliyev secured a staggering 92 per cent of the vote, with nearly all polling stations reporting their results.

The election took place amidst a crackdown on independent media and in the absence of any substantial opposition.

“The Azerbaijani people have elected Ilham Aliyev as the country’s president,” AFP quoted Central Election Commission chief Mazahir Panahov as saying at a press conference.

“Turnout was 67.7 per cent,” he added.

Aliyev received praise domestically when his forces regained control of the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region from Armenian separatists in September, who had held sway over it for decades.

However, the primary opposition factions in the oil-rich country abstained from participating in the election. Ali Kerimli, a leader of the Popular Front party, denounced the electoral process as a mere “facade of democracy.”

“There are no conditions in the country for the conduct of free and fair elections,” Kerimli told AFP.

The six other candidates who were running were little-known and had praised Aliyev as a great statesman and commander-in-chief since he announced the election in December, a year ahead of schedule.

Singing patriotic songs, several thousand Aliyev supporters gathered on Wednesday evening in the streets of central Baku to celebrate his re-election.

Some demonstrators held signs that read “Karabakh’s liberator” and “We are proud of you!”

The president and first lady Mehriban Aliyeva went to Karabakh on Wednesday to cast their ballots in the region’s main city of Khankendi.

For the first time in Azerbaijan’s post-Soviet history, 26 polling stations opened in Karabakh.

The enclave has been largely deserted after its entire ethnic-Armenian population — more than 100,000 people – fled to Armenia after Baku’s takeover.

‘Escalating crackdown’

Last month, Aliyev called the Karabakh victory “an epochal event unparallelled in Azerbaijan’s history”.

“The election will mark the beginning of a new era,” he said, with the country holding the presidential vote on all its territory for the first time.

Supporters have praised Aliyev for turning a country once thought of as a Soviet backwater into a flourishing energy supplier to Europe.

But critics say he has crushed opposition groups and suffocated independent media.

Aliyev’s win was a foregone conclusion, said independent analyst Ghia Nodia of the Caucasus Center for Strategic Studies.

There was “no suspense whatsoever in these elections without the slightest sign of competitiveness”.

In recent months, Azerbaijani authorities have intensified pressure on independent media outlets, arresting several critical journalists who had exposed high-level graft.

“All fundamental rights are being violated in the country, opposition parties can’t function normally, freedom of assembly is restricted, media are under government pressure, and political dissent is being suppressed,” said Kerimli of the Popular Front.

On Tuesday, Amnesty International said: “The escalating crackdown by Azerbaijani authorities ahead of the elections is not just an attack on individual rights, it’s a widespread, coordinated assault on civil society and the rule of law.”

Dynastic rule

Aliyev, 62, was first elected president in 2003 after the death of his father, Heydar Aliyev, a former KGB officer who had ruled Azerbaijan since 1993.

He was re-elected in 2008, 2013 and in 2018, with 86 percent of the votes.

All the elections were denounced by opposition parties as rigged.

In 2009, Aliyev amended the country’s constitution so he could run for an unlimited number of presidential terms, a move criticised by rights advocates who said he could become president for life.

In 2016, Azerbaijan adopted controversial constitutional amendments that extended the president’s term in office to seven years from five.

He then appointed his wife as first vice president.

Around six million voters were registered for the election, which was being monitored by observers from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

https://www.firstpost.com/world/azerbaijan-president-secures-fifth-term-as-expected-after-karabakh-win-13702902.html

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[Yervant1]

Feb 8 2024

COMMENT: An Armenia-Azerbaijan ‘peace’ is further away than ever

By Neil Hauer in Yerevan February 8, 2024

Over the past few months, speculation over an impending Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty has reached a fever pitch. Numerous articles have suggested that the two sides are close to a final agreement, while both EU and US officials have expressed optimism on the long-running negotiations.

Perhaps the most positive outlook has come from officials of the two governments themselves: Top Azerbaijani officials expressed in late December that the two sides were “not that much far away from a final agreement”, while Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated in October that his government was ready to sign a peace treaty by the end of 2023.

But these rosy public proclamations are a poor reflection of reality. A raft of incontrovertible issues remains between the two sides, particularly rooted in Azerbaijan’s escalating demands while it continues to exert military pressure on Armenia. Barely four months after the full-scale ethnic cleansing of Nagorno-Karabakh of its ethnic Armenian inhabitants following Azerbaijan’s military offensive there in September, the list of sticking points for a peace agreement is growing, not shrinking.

Despite the public enthusiasm by both Armenian and Azerbaijani representatives, the talks themselves have long since stalled, analysts say.

“I think we are nowhere,” says Gevorg Melikyan, head of the Yerevan-based Armenian Institute for Resilience and Statecraft, when asked where talks are at now. “This process is not moving forward. It is just more and more demands by the Azerbaijani side, more and more preconditions,” he says.

Armenia has shown a willingness to compromise on many issues, most notably that of Nagorno-Karabakh. Already in May 2023, the Armenian government announced it would recognise the disputed region as part of Azerbaijan, although this did not stop Baku’s then-ongoing blockade of the region or forestall its eventually military takeover.

Armenia has also proposed numerous suggestions for unblocking regional transport links, something that was stipulated as part of the November 2020 trilateral ceasefire agreement signed between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia to end the 2020 Second Karabakh War.

Azerbaijan, however, has been obstinate. The Ilham Aliyev regime insists on the opening of what it calls the “Zangezur corridor”, envisioned as a road along Armenia’s southern border with Iran that will connect mainland Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan. Azerbaijani officials have insisted that Armenia will not be allowed to exercise any customs control over the road, despite it passing through Armenia’s sovereign territory.

“[What the] Azerbaijani government actually wants is that Armenia will not have any control over this corridor, over anything passing over the territory of Armenia to Nakhchivan,” says Altay Goyushov, head of the Baku-based Baku Research Institute. “I think this is the most important thing for Azerbaijan, but at the same time, it’s not the only thing. Azerbaijan is using different kinds of excuses to avoid the peace agreement – demanding changes in the [Armenian] constitution, demanding the return of exclaves, and other things. All of these [elements] are combined to put pressure on the Armenian side,” he says.

Public backlash

The recent demands by Azerbaijan to modify Armenia’s constitution have become another sticking point. Pashinyan and other top Armenian officials have mooted the idea recently, resulting in major controversy and a public backlash.

“This is a totally unacceptable demand, and something that the [Armenian] government seems to not really understand the scope of, especially in the way it is presenting it,” Melikyan says. “Having one man [Pashinyan], who wakes up in the morning and thinks that it’s in Armenia’s interest to change the constitution, is not acceptable [to society].

“If Pashinyan tries to make a referendum [with these changes], he will fail, because it means that every time Azerbaijan wants to make a change to Armenia’s symbols, history, narratives, whatever, that we must do it,” he says.

Perhaps the most alarming aspect of Azerbaijan’s rhetoric is its repeated references to ‘Western Azerbaijan,’ an irredentist political concept used to extend territorial claims to the entirety of the present-day Republic of Armenia.

Far from a fringe suggestion, the concept of ‘Western Azerbaijan’ – and of Baku’s rightful sovereignty over it – has been mentioned repeatedly by Azerbaijan’s highest official. Aliyev is a noted proponent of the idea, lamenting in a January 10 speech how “ancient Azerbaijani lands” – including the Armenian capital, Yerevan – were “given” to Armenia a century ago. The loss of these lands, according to Aliyev, was “a great historical crime”.

Invoking this sentiment is a clear declaration of Aliyev’s intention to create a pretext for a broader invasion of Armenia, under the guise of “reclaiming” ancient Azerbaijani land, Melikyan says.

“It’s very serious. I don’t know why people think [these statements] are just a bluff,” he says. “It’s a strategic approach to say, ‘we have legal rights to take over Yerevan, we have the legal right to enter it’. When autocratic states start a war, they find pseudo-legal justifications for it. In this case, they will say, ‘well, we don’t want to attack, but we need to restore justice’. And in the name of justice, people go to war,” Melikyan says.

Internal messaging

Another explanation for such statements is that of internal messaging, an attempt to consolidate Aliyev’s legitimacy among the population, Goyushov says, while not excluding the possibility of further military action on the same basis.

“There’s no doubt that [this talk] has some elements of putting pressure on the Armenian side,” he says. “But the most important is the internal audience. Firstly, it’s about [directing society] to focus on the foreign enemy, which is Armenia. It’s important [for Aliyev] to galvanise society around his only achievement, the war in Karabakh. It’s also kind of a competition against the leaders of the First Republic [of Azerbaijan, 1918-20], to downgrade their achievements by saying that they made a lot of mistakes. That’s why even in this speech, Aliyev says that the mistakes stopped being made when Heydar [Aliyev, his father] came to power [in 1969],” Goyushov says.

But even if this sort of messaging is the main point, a further war based on the same logic can hardly be ruled out.

“He’s a dictator, and dictators are unpredictable,” Goyushov says. “They can make reckless decisions. What should be taken into account is the way that it can have an impact on the public in general, where people then ask, if Yerevan is our city, why are we not liberating it?” he says.

While the idea of the public taking such claims seriously may seem farfetched, Goyushov emphasises that the degree of mass inoculation by state propaganda in Azerbaijan makes such a possibility entirely plausible.

“People in Azerbaijan, young people especially, they really believe this [falsified history],” says Goyushov, who also lectures at Baku State University. “For example, when I am teaching a class about the Crusades and I mention their interactions with Armenia, students will stand up and ask me how that’s possible. They say that Armenians were not here then [in the Middle Ages], that they were only brought by the Russian Empire. So that’s what makes [these irredentist claims] so dangerous and unpredictable,” Goyushov says.

In such an atmosphere, it’s very difficult to imagine any genuine progress towards a mutual understanding, let alone a durable peace agreement.

“We have so little information on what is actually being discussed that we can only guess,” says Melikyan. “Despite the fact that we [Armenia] are supposedly democratic, we have almost no more information about what Pashinyan is saying than Azerbaijan does [about Aliyev]. We can say that [Pashinyan] is very eager to sign some sort of agreement, maybe not even a peace treaty, but Azerbaijan is not willing,” he says.

For Aliyev, meanwhile, the only real priority is to continue entrenching his control over the country – something that leaves room only for more militarism and violence.

“Despite everything, despite his victory, Aliyev still feels insecure,” Goyushov says. “That’s why we see these North Korea-style elections, the most controlled we have ever had. Meanwhile, the economy is declining, people are only going to be faced with more problems, while Aliyev and his family are only going to face more pressure [from society]. Things here are bad, but they are going to get much worse.”

https://www.intellinews.com/comment-an-armenia-azerbaijan-peace-is-further-away-than-ever-311587/

[Yervant1]

EconoTimes

Feb 8 2024

Azerbaijan’s attacks on Armenian heritage aim to erase an entire culture

By Fernando Camacho Padilla

Thursday, February 8, 2024 12:27 PM UTC

On 25 December 2023, the Azerbaijan parliament (the Milli Majlis) passed a declaration claiming that, in what is currently Armenia, there was previously an Azerbaijani community that was displaced by conflict. Though based on scant evidence and flimsy rhetoric, this document also states the right of Azerbaijanis to return to these lands.

Further aggression by Azerbaijan against Armenia can therefore not be ruled out, despite steps towards a possible truce in recent months. Several countries, including France and Iran, have already warned Azerbaijan against an occupying the southern Armenian province of Syunik to gain access to its Nakhchivan exclave via the Zangezur corridor, which runs along the Iran-Armenia border.

In addition to Azerbaijan’s strategic aims, there is a history of ethnic cleansing and genocide in the region. This has entailed massive cultural, as well as human, losses.

A city divided

Iran is the only Muslim-majority country in the region where the Armenian diaspora still coexists relatively peacefully. There, Armenian historical heritage is respected and visited by people of all faiths, and is even promoted to tourists.

In the Northern Iranian city of Jolfa, Armenian culture is treated with pride. The churches and monasteries are cared for, and visited by thousands of travellers a year, most of them Iranians (including those of Armenian heritage). Its architectural jewel is the Saint Stepanous monastery, built in the 9th century and renovated several times. Thanks to the efforts of the Iranian state, it has been declared a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

The Saint Stepanous Monastery, an Armenian monastery near the Iranian city of Jolfa. Alireza Javaheri/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY

However, this is only half the story, as today the city is divided into two halves by the Iran-Azerbaijan border, which runs through it. Until the 19th century the two halves formed a single urban unit, but after Persia’s defeat in the war with Russia between 1826 and 1828, the northern side of the city passed into Russian hands. When the Soviet Union collapsed, it was then integrated into Azerbaijan.

On the Azerbaijani side there are no traces of Armenian culture, following a systematic campaign to remove them in recent decades. This tragic loss is epitomised by Jolfa’s medieval cemetery, where over 3,000 Khachkars (Armenian stone crosses) have been destroyed, an event that British newspaper The Guardian has dubbed “the worst cultural genocide of the 21st century”.

Photograph of Khachkars in the Armenian cemetery of Jolfa. Today there is no trace left of the cemetery. Wikimedia Commons

Erasing Nagorno Karabakh

After Armenia’s defeat in Nagorno Karabakh in September 2023, and the subsequent exit of both international journalists and NGOs – meaning the progressive withdrawal of media attention and humanitarian aid – it is not difficult to imagine that here too, efforts are already underway to wipe any traces of Armenian heritage off the map.

Importantly, Azerbaijan does not allow visits to verify that protections on Armenian cultural heritage sites are being respected. They can therefore only be monitored by satellite, and from such a distance it is all but impossible to document the events on the ground.

In Nagorno Karabakh there are around 500 historical sites, home to approximately 6,000 Armenian monuments that are now under the control of Azerbaijani armed forces. However, their destruction is not just the work of the military. The swift colonisation programme put in place by President Ilham Aliyev includes urban reorganisation and reoccupation of urban and rural areas.

This too has a historical precedent. During the first Nagorno Karabakh war in the 1990s, Azerbaijani authorities decided to eliminate all Armenian presence in the country, be it human or cultural, in what was known as the Baku pogrom.

This caused an exodus among Azerbaijan’s Armenian community, which had previously made up a substantial part of the population of cities like Baku. In the Nakhchivan exclave alone, a total of 5,849 stone crosses, 22,000 tombs and 89 medieval churches were destroyed, according to figures from the academic Nélida Elena Boulgourdjian.

The Cathedral of the Holy Cross, at Lake Van, Turkey. F. Camacho Padilla

The destruction is reminiscent of the fate of the Armenian architectural heritage across Turkey during the 20th century, where very little was done to preserve, recover or restore it. The few exceptions were the Cathedral of the Holy Cross at Lake Van, and the historic city of Ani, capital of the kingdom of Bagratid Armenia. The latter of these was declared a UNESCO World Heritage Site in 2016.

The international community’s muted response

In recent decades, the Armenian diaspora – along with a considerable number of other institutions and organisations including the European Parliament – have spoken out against the crimes committed against Armenia’s cultural heritage.

Until only recently, this had been met with silence from most of the international community, and even UNESCO’s response was lacklustre, as pointed out by the University of Cornell. Caucasus Heritage Watch, which forms part of Cornell, has been closely following Azerbaijan’s destructive trail, regularly publishing monitoring reports that include photos and detailed information of the crimes being committed against Armenian heritage sites. In doing so, it is calling for international mobilisation and condemnation of Baku’s actions, though with little impact to date.

The severity and the turmoil of other global conflicts – some of them relatively close to the Caucasus, such as the war in Ukraine and the Israeli invasion of Gaza – leave little room for reporting on this situation. This leaves the Armenian people, once again, to fend for themselves.

Armenian heritage is, in fact, currently under threat in Israel: over the last three years, an Israeli company has tried to buy up 25% of Jerusalem’s 1500 year old Armenian quarter to build luxury homes. Local Armenian resistance has stalled the project by occupying work sites, but not without violent repercussions. With the world’s eyes on the ongoing atrocities being committed in Palestine this is receiving little attention, despite clear parallels with events in Gaza.

The systematic destruction of cultural heritage – in addition to being a crime against the history of humanity itself – highlights the cruelty and lack of ethics of those responsible. As with the Buddhas of Bāmiyān in Afghanistan, which were dynamited in March 2001 by the Taliban, there is no way to bring back the legacy of an entire people once it has been destroyed.

https://www.econotimes.com/Azerbaijans-attacks-on-Armenian-heritage-aim-to-erase-an-entire-culture-1671075#google_vignette

[Yervant1]

Feb 9 2024

Azerbaijan Must Show a Victor’s Wisdom
By Emil Avdaliani
February 9, 2024

Armenia has signaled it might alter its constitution. But while this could open the way to peace, its relations with Azerbaijan remain dominated by raw power.

Flush from its lightening victory over Armenia’s Nagorno-Karabakh enclave in September, Azerbaijan seems in little mood to offer reconciliation.

It is demanding that Armenia’s constitution be rewritten. “It will be possible to achieve peace” if there are changes to several state documents, Azeri President Ilham Aliyev stated. The demand has been echoed by Armenia’s powerful neighbor Turkey.

Together, the two countries could open the way to improved regional relations, including border openings and improved transport links. Or they could spark a backlash that so angers Armenians that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is dumped at next year’s election, perhaps opening the way to a hardline nationalist.

Given what’s at stake, Pashinyan’s government has been surprisingly open to discussions.

In part, that’s because some Azeri demands sound harsher than they are. For example, while Azerbaijan remains determined to secure transportation links to its Nakhichevan exclave — the shortest passes through Armenian territory — the worst tensions have mostly subsided.

In October, Iran and Azerbaijan signed a railway agreement that envisions the transit from Azerbaijan proper to Nakhichevan via Iranian territory. This projected connectivity is beneficial to everyone in the region and could help pave the way for a wider Azeri-Armenian peace agreement.

Territory previously controlled by the Republic of Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh)

Territory controlled by Azerbaijan

Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic (Azerbaijan)

Accurate as of September 29, 2023

Map: Center for European Policy Analysis Source: liveUAmap Embed Download image Download PDF Download SVG

This would probably not be comprehensive, but instead compose a roadmap of some kind stipulating major principles, with the detail to be filled in later. Major principles would likely involve mutual territorial recognition, opening of borders, and potentially beginning the work toward establishing diplomatic relations.

Other questions, such as delimitation of borders and the issue of around 100,000 Armenians returning to Nagorno-Karabakh, would likely remain outside the framework.

That seems wise. The alternative would be another lengthy negotiating process to settle border issues before signing the deal. This would take months, if not years. Given Azerbaijan’s military superiority, it would be likely to intersperse the talks with army exercises to pressure its interlocutor.

The preamble of the current Constitution of Armenia refers to the reunification of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, the region which it won by force of arms in 1994. The circumstances under which the document was created — at the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the First Nagorno-Karabakh War — reflected the country’s mood back in the 1990s.

Now, following its defeats in 2020 and 2023, the balance of power very much favors Azerbaijan. And yet, while its demand to change the constitution is unprecedented, it is not impossible.

Surprisingly, government figures in Yerevan agree on the need to change the constitution. What might have been received with ridicule even a year ago is now supported by Pashinyan, who has on numerous occasions criticized the 1990 declaration and suggested plans to enact a new constitution. The planned document would address the new reality created following the fall of Nagorno-Karabakh and effectively acknowledge its loss.

Though a final decision has not yet been made, it seems that Armenia will eventually concede. But it expects mirror changes in Azerbaijan’s main state documents too. The Speaker of the National Assembly, Alen Simonyan, referred to the provisions in the constitution of Azerbaijan, which references Armenia as a hostile neighbor.

Armenia is not just seeking peace with Azerbaijan; it also wants better relations with Turkey, which closed its borders more than 30 years ago. The process has been lengthy and beset with delays, and much of its success depends on Yerevan-Baku talks.

Turkey objects to references in the Armenian constitution to the Armenian genocide and veiled territorial claims toward Turkey based on the post-World War I treaties that dissolved the Ottoman Empire.

These disputes do not take place in a vacuum, of course. There is an attentive domestic audience in Armenia, and Pashinyan has not been a popular leader. The opposition has been accusing him of state treason, which gives some sense of the debate. While the opposition (which is mostly openly pro-Russian) is currently even less popular, constitutional changes to meet foreign demands might further degrade Pashinyan’s standing.

It is a brave path to put aside historical grievances in a determined push toward mending ties with Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Even so, what matters most is not the signing of a peace deal in itself but whether the dominant parties — Azerbaijan and Turkey — show the sense not to push too hard. In that case, the South Caucasus will be set for more years of disputes.

Emil Avdaliani is a professor of international relations at European University in Tbilisi, Georgia, and a scholar of the silk road.

Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.

https://cepa.org/article/azerbaijan-must-show-a-victors-wisdom/

[Yervant1]

Feb 10 2024

Aliyev’s representative proposes absurd demands against Armenia reminiscent of medieval expansionism

Azerbaijan continues its unsubstantiated demands on Armenia, as recently demonstrated by Elchin Amirbekov, Azerbaijan’s senior envoy for special assignments. This information is conveyed by Joshua Kucera, a contributor to “Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty” (RFE/RL), in his article titled “As Peace Negotiations Advance, Armenia And Azerbaijan Are Going It Alone.”

As negotiations progress, it becomes increasingly apparent that Azerbaijan’s demands extend beyond reasonable expectations. These demands are not only unsupported by credible evidence but also raise questions about the legitimacy of Azerbaijan’s claims. The lack of transparency in their assertions further complicates the already delicate peace talks, creating a potential obstacle to finding a sustainable resolution.

Upon a preliminary examination of Joshua Kucera’s article, a discernible bias is evident, particularly in the way he introduces the topic before quoting Amirbekov. Kucera asserts that Azerbaijani officials have expressed dissatisfaction with Armenia’s formal claim to Karabakh in its constitution, citing a preamble referring to a 1989 act advocating for the unification of Karabakh with Armenia. While Kucera notes the lack of response from the Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, he includes a statement from Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan on January 25, attempting to link it to the narrative presented by Amirbekov.

“Azerbaijani officials have complained that Armenia continues to stake a claim to Karabakh in its constitution formally, the preamble of which makes reference to a 1989 act calling to unify Karabakh with Armenia.

Amirbayov said there are several other such claims in Armenia’s formal statements and legislation. For example, when Armenia’s legislature ratified the 1991 Alma Ata accords, which accepted Soviet republic borders as the borders of the newly independent states, lawmakers added language saying that it did not apply to Karabakh. He also called attention to language on the Armenian Foreign Ministry website saying that Nagorno-Karabakh is “an integral part of historic Armenia,” and recent Armenian filings in the European Court of Human Rights that imply a claim on Azerbaijan.

“We have pointed the attention of the Armenian side to those facts many times, during our [in-person] negotiations, but also through different exchanges of comments,” he said. “And the Armenian side acknowledges that this is the fact, but nothing is being done…. When they try to cheat, if I may use the word, if they try to put all the blame and the responsibility on our shoulders, and at the same time in the back of their minds still having these territorial claims against us, it’s not going to work,” he said”, Kucera writes in his article, quoting Amirbayov’s words

Upon closer inspection of the article, Amirbekov’s assertions become increasingly dubious. Notably, he claims that the Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs website acknowledges Karabakh as an “integral part of historical Armenia.” However, this assertion aligns with historical facts widely accepted within academic circles. Amirbekov’s demand to negate this historical fact appears unreasonable, especially when considering that historical truths should not be subject to revisionist interference based on individual whims. It is worth mentioning that Amirbekov’s ancestors are historically associated with nomadic tribes residing in the steppes of Turkestan until the mid-Middle Ages, a fact supported by numerous academic monographs, establishing it as an accepted and proven historical reality.

Amirbekov’s unfounded statements extend beyond this point. He raises Armenia’s claims against Azerbaijan at the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), a topic that seems to surpass the boundaries of reasonable discussion, particularly given the substantial evidence of Azerbaijani crimes, including those committed against civilians. Intermediate decisions from the International Court of Justice (ICJ) further affirm the groundlessness of Amirbekov’s accusations. Unfortunately, the article fails to include these crucial facts when describing the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiation process.

In conclusion, Amirbekov’s position appears devoid of coherence and logical consistency, marked by tendentious and misleading disinformation disseminated by a representative of the Azerbaijani president. The article, in its current form, neglects to provide a balanced perspective and overlooks significant facts that could contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the ongoing Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiation process. It is imperative to approach such complex geopolitical issues with a commitment to unbiased reporting and a thorough consideration of all relevant information.

By Deputy Editor-in-Chief of “ARMENPRESS”, Ararat Petrosyan. His Twitter.

https://greekcitytimes.com/2024/02/11/aliyevs-representative-proposes-absurd-demands-against-armenia-reminiscent-of-medieval-expansionism/

[Yervant1]

Armenpress.am

Azerbaijan falsely accuses Armenia of opening fire – Defense Ministry

09:21, 13 February 2024

YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 13, ARMENPRESS. The Azerbaijani authorities are generating fake news targeting the Armenian military, the Ministry of Defense has warned.

The Azeri Defense Ministry, in its latest statement, falsely accused the Armenian military of opening fire at Azeri posts.

“The statement issued by the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan, alleging that between 20:50 and 23:40 on February 12, the units of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Armenia fired in the direction of Azerbaijani positions situated in the northeastern part of the border, is untrue,” the Ministry of Defense said.

 

 

https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1130154.html?fbclid=IwAR1k-cv_2Jm_1_fQGsAgfg5sZ_yItNS4I4perCJp8bBBFYpiPNzpaaq3DfQ

[Yervant1]

Armenpress.am

Armenian investigators treat Azeri gunfire attack at Armenian troops as hate-fueled murder

16:29, 13 February 2024

YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 13, ARMENPRESS. The Investigative Committee of Armenia has opened a criminal case on hate-fueled murder and attempted murder after Azerbaijani forces shot and killed 4 Armenian soldiers in Syunik Province on February 13. Another soldier was wounded in the shooting.

In a statement, the Investigative Committee said the Azerbaijani troops were motivated by racial, ethnic or national hatred when they murdered the 4 Armenian troops near Nerkin Hand, Syunik.

“A preliminary investigation is underway. The necessary and urgent investigative and other procedural actions are being taken,” the Investigative Committee added.

 

 

https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1130203.html?fbclid=IwAR32iUWhNrJQ-dyx_Lc1YKXVwCM7x4nO4VhpZ06vFzNOoDvFvL6DUcLqtC8

[Yervant1]

Armenpress.am

Azerbaijan continues ‘policy of military coercion’ against Armenia, warns Pashinyan

11:38, 15 February 2024

YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 15, ARMENPRESS. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has commented on the latest Azeri aggression targeting Armenia which left 4 soldiers dead and 1 wounded.

Speaking at the Cabinet meeting, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that 4 on-duty servicemen near Nerkin Hand in Syunik Province were killed as a result of the aggressive actions of Azerbaijan on February 13. He expressed condolences to the families and friends of the fallen troops and said that the shooting was yet another manifestation of Azerbaijan’s destructive policy.

He reminded that Armenian authorities had launched an investigation into Azeri allegations that a day before an Armenian border guard had opened fire and wounded an Azeri soldier. Troops are instructed to not allow ceasefire violations and not give in to provocations, and thus, if the investigation were to conclude that a violation had taken place, those guilty would face consequences. “Nonetheless, the next morning Azerbaijan opened intense fire at the abovementioned position, which resulted in four deaths. The description of events shows that Azerbaijan’s intentions remain the same: to engage in a policy of military coercion against the Republic of Armenia. It is our impression that Azerbaijan doesn’t display any interest in ensuring border stability and security and there are numerous grounds for this. For example, back in 2022, we reached an agreement that the delimitation commissions’ mandate should include also border security issues. In accordance with the agreement, the Republic of Armenia created the Commission on State Border Delimitation and Border Security Issues between the Republic of Armenia and Republic of Azerbaijan, assuming that the commissions would also work around matters of border security, but Azerbaijan, despite the agreement, named its commission the State Commission for State Border Delimitation between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia, skipping the security component. This and several other circumstances give the grounds to conclude that Azerbaijan continues to engage in the so-called ‘give me what I want through talks otherwise I will take it through war’ policy,” Pashinyan said.

 

 

https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1130361.html?fbclid=IwAR0v68ywq80xdV8Zuy5eIbV5G7DmN6YFl10Cn92vFq-Ml9nQAYC1_oBDIIs

[Yervant1]

Armenpress.am

Azerbaijan could be planning to attack Armenia – Pashinyan on Baku’s refusal to start delimitation

12:16, 15 February 2024

YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 15, ARMENPRESS. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has said that Azerbaijan is avoiding by all means all options proposed for border delimitation with Armenia.

Speaking at the February 15 Cabinet meeting, Pashinyan warned that this could mean that Azerbaijan intends to launch military actions in some parts of the border with the prospect of turning it into an all-out war against Armenia.

“Have you seen Azerbaijan regularly speak about what it describes as the territories of the four villages, at the same time refusing to accept that the territories of vital importance of 31 non-enclave villages of the Republic of Armenia are under Azerbaijani occupation. Our position in this situation is highly constructive. What we are saying is that in order for the troops to pull back from their positions, it is necessary to reproduce the Armenia-Azerbaijan border on the map and on the ground and pull back the troops of the two countries from that line of the border. After the reproduction, if it turns out that there are troops before that line, they must be withdrawn from both sides against the already demarcated border. Official Baku is trying to formulate this event in a way so that the Azeri troops won’t anyhow pull back from the territories of the 31 villages in Armenia. This is not a constructive stance,” Pashinyan said.

He reiterated Armenia’s readiness for concrete solutions, principles of which are already agreed upon.

He said that the principles include the agreements signed in international platforms: the Armenia-Azerbaijan reciprocal recognition of territorial integrity based on the 1991 Alma-Ata Declaration, which should serve as the political framework for the delimitation process.

“This means that we are only left with technical work: to reproduce on the maps and on the ground the de jure 1991 border of the Armenian and Azerbaijani SSRs and solve the issue by identifying the legal grounds. The so-called exclave-enclave issue must be addressed in the same way. For example, in order to determine the territory of Artsvashen, it should be drawn based on legal documents and solve that issue as result of future talks. But Azerbaijan is regularly refusing to go for solutions, trying to take the path of localization. We are ready even for that option and to carry out demarcation province by province, by reproducing the border in every section, and then carry out the adjustment of troops deployment, according to the reproduced border line, and then go to the next section, and leave the exclave issues for the last phase,” Pashinyan said, adding that Armenia is ready for both options: to either carry out demarcation along the entire border at once or by sections.

“But it seems that Azerbaijan is rejecting this option as well. Our analysis shows that there can only be one reason for this, and the reasons could be their [intentions] to launch military actions in some parts of the border with the prospect of turning the military escalation into a large-scale war against the Republic of Armenia. This intention is read in all statements and actions made by Baku,” Pashinyan said.

 

 

https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1130363.html?fbclid=IwAR0JjKyTwvVbjqD35ssK-mhVF89r7UXnNo9G5xRv5NmpcCkpeYVgrNYaPa8

[Yervant1]

Why are you (fake sultan) complaining, if they are no good?

 

Report, Azerbaijan

Feb 15 2024

Media: Weapons and ammunition purchased by Armenia do not meet quality standards

The weapons, ammunition and equipment purchased by Armenia from India, France and other countries do not meet quality standards, Report informs referring to the Armenian publication “Past.”

“The radar devices purchased from France do not meet the requirements, and the French side does not sell missiles to Armenia designed to destroy targets detected by these devices. As for military vehicles purchased in France, their low quality has been mentioned more than once, which is also evidenced by refusal of the Ukrainian side to supply them,” reads the article.

As for the purchase of weapons and ammunition from India, according to military experts, the Armenian army lacks the experience and necessary skills to operate them.

The leader of the All-Armenian Front movement, former Defense Minister Arshak Karapetyan, recently spoke about the low quality of weapons supplied from these countries. He said that a number of contracts he signed for the purchase of weapons have already been canceled by the current authorities. This includes a contract with Serbia for the purchase of weapons and ammunition worth several hundred million dollars.

Thus, the publication notes that the recent statement by the current Minister of Defense of Armenia Suren Papikyan that the army is provided with the necessary weapons through purchases from India, France and other countries is an attempt to mislead the Armenian society.

“He is trying to impress the Armenian society with such statements that the army is allegedly arming itself with modern weapons and ammunition by refusing Russian supplies,” the article says.

https://report.az/en/region/media-weapons-and-ammunition-purchased-by-armenia-do-not-meet-quality-standards/

 

[Yervant1]

Newsable
Feb 15 2024

Armenia raises alarm, accuses Azerbaijan of planning full-scale war as tensions simmer

As tensions escalate in the region, Armenia has sounded the alarm, alleging that Azerbaijan is plotting a full-scale war. The accusations add a layer of complexity to the diplomatic landscape, raising concerns about the potential ramifications for both nations.

The tensions in the Middle East have disrupted the global economy causing the oil prices to shoot up. A similar situation could be simmering in the oil-rich Azerbaijan region. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on Thursday warned that the neighboring nation is planning a full-scale war to win more territories.

Nikol Pashinyan has accused Azerbaijan of plotting a full-scale war after skirmishes took place on the border that left 4 Armenian soldiers dead. The skirmishes have enforced war alarms over Armenia as the nightmares of last September seem to resurface.

Azerbaijan launched a swift military action to invade Armenia and take the highly populated Nagorno-Karabakh. The Armenian side suffered more casualties and also lost vital territories due to a weak military. The Asian nation has now stepped up its defense spending and has exported multiple defense equipment from India.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said, “Our analysis shows that Azerbaijan wants to launch military action in some parts of the border with the prospect of turning military escalation into a full-scale war against Armenia.”

Azerbaijan has also beefed up its defense purchases from Turkey to prepare for another assault on Armenia. Pakistan and Turkey have come out as major allies of the oil and gas-rich nation. Baku as of now has a multifold stronger military presence and any move on the borders will prove difficult to tackle for Yerevan.

Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev recently won re-election to the office in Baku fighting on national security rhetoric that involved the win in Armenia. He said, “We have no territorial claims to Armenia. And they should give up their claims. Talking to us in the language of blackmail will cost them dearly.”

https://newsable.asianetnews.com/world/armenia-raises-alarm-accuses-azerbaijan-of-planning-full-scale-war-as-tensions-simmer-avv-s8w7s9

[Yervant1]

Feb 13 2024

In the Caucasus, Another Year of War or Peace

• THOMAS DE WAAL
  

Armenia and Azerbaijan may be nearing a bilateral peace agreement, but the threat of violence persists. A major sticking point is the Zangezur Corridor, where Baku and Moscow may pursue a deal to the detriment of Yerevan and the West.

As in Ukraine, so in the South Caucasus, 2024 will be a critical year, and one that will also test European decisionmakers.

The second half of the year will be difficult for Georgia. In October, there will be an election in which the Georgian Dream ruling party seeks to win an unprecedented fourth term and tighten its increasingly illiberal grip on the country—while still keeping its newly acquired EU candidate status.

Before that looms the issue of Azerbaijan and Armenia and whether, yet again, this is a year of war or peace. Negotiations are ongoing for a bilateral peace agreement that would normalize relations between the two countries after thirty years of conflict, but there is still the threat of violence in and around southern Armenia—in the region called Syunik, historically known as Zangezur.

On February 13, the Armenian military reported that two of its soldiers had been killed by fire from the Azerbaijani side near the village of Nerkin Hand in Syunik. It is an area close to Azerbaijan, where monitors from the EU border mission, EUMA, have previously been denied access by Russian border guards.

Azerbaijan still holds most of the cards. President Ilham Aliyev was re-elected for a fifth term as president on February 7. He has never looked so confident. Aliyev derives new legitimacy with the public from his military victory last September when his forces captured Nagorny Karabakh in a lightning operation, forcing the entire Armenian population to flee and resolving the decades-old conflict by violence.

The Karabakh operation accelerated a cooling of relations between Azerbaijan and the West, which had been trying to broker a peaceful resolution of the conflict until the last moment. This as the Armenia-Russia relationship is in a process of spectacular breakdown and the EU steps up its engagement with Armenia.

Conversely, Aliyev’s confidence derives from a double insurance policy with his two big neighbors: a tight alliance with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and a mutually advantageous partnership with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The stress on the two leaders rather than their countries is deliberate—these are very personal bonds between men who speak the same macho language of power and money.

The Western-facilitated negotiation tracks in Brussels and Washington have been suspended since last summer. What is left is a bilateral process, led by the Armenian and Azerbaijani national security advisers, working on the text of a peace agreement.

It is a serious process that delivered a good outcome on December 7, when Armenian detainees were released in return for Armenia dropping a veto on Azerbaijan hosting the COP-29 climate summit in Baku at the end of 2024.

A bilateral peace process without mediators has the advantage that no foreign agendas or egos can get in the way of a deal. But the Armenian side also fears that in a situation of asymmetry Baku can use it to impose its agenda, demanding concessions while still threatening to use force.

There are reported to be three main sticking points in reaching a deal. One is the demarcation of the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, where multiple maps from different parts of the Soviet era give different interpretations of where lines should be drawn.

The second issue is what kind of international guarantees and dispute resolution mechanism there will be to make an agreement sustainable. The Armenians want as much international backup as possible, while the Azerbaijanis want to see very little written here.

The third issue is the highly contentious one of reopening a long-closed corridor or transit route across 43 kilometers of Armenian territory connecting the main part of Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan, bordering Türkiye. Azerbaijan has an interest in reconnecting the two parts of its territory with routes that have as little Armenian control over them as possible. Armenia does not want to cede sovereignty or security over its strategically vital southern border area.

There is a strong Western strategic interest in the second point, and even more so in the third one—the issue of the so-called Zangezur Corridor. When it comes to security, Azerbaijan is insisting that Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) border guards should guard the rail and road connection. They cite a trilateral Armenian-Azerbaijani-Russian ceasefire statement of November 2020, which explicitly mentions this point—even though the rest of that agreement has now been rendered defunct by events. In January, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov again insisted that this part of the deal must be enforced.

For its part, the Armenian side is working to rid itself of Russian influence, including the border guards deployed there after the fall of the Soviet Union. It would be a major strategic blow if the Russians were to stay, at the behest of Azerbaijan.

The working assumption in Armenia is that there is a deal between Baku and Moscow here, which Ankara has quietly assented to. There is at least circumstantial evidence to back this up. For the Russians, control of the transit route would be a big success. They would be formally handed control of a stretch of railway that links Russia and Iran—and routes onward to the Persian Gulf—for the first time in decades. This would be the major north-south rail route for Russia to rebuild its connections with the Middle East as war with Ukraine and contestation with the West stretch into the future.

The worrying scenario is that a peace deal will not be signed until Azerbaijan gets what it wants in southern Armenia. To put it another way, in 2024 Armenia is likely to come under big pressure from both Baku and Moscow, using different methods, to accede to a plan for the Zangezur Corridor that suits neither Yerevan nor the Western powers.

That is also why local incidents of violence, such as the one near Nerkin Hand, need to be watched very closely. New conflict and fateful consequences for the entire region could flow from small clashes like this one.

https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/91621

[Yervant1]

Armenpress.am

‘International community must acknowledge Azerbaijan's lack of legitimacy for military aggression,’ Armenian official

11:52, 16 February 2024

YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 16, ARMENPRESS. The international community must acknowledge Azerbaijan's lack of legitimacy for military aggression and demand the withdrawal of its troops from occupied territories of Armenia, Ambassador-at-large Edmon Marukyan has said.

“I am often asked whether Azerbaijan will attack Armenia again,” Marukyan said in a post on X. “My answer is that Azerbaijan lacks any legitimate grounds for attacking Armenia. All actions since 2021 constitute aggression and are deemed crimes under international criminal law. Azerbaijan's occupation of Armenian territories remains unpunished. The international community must acknowledge Azerbaijan's lack of legitimacy for military aggression and demand the withdrawal of its troops from occupied territories, urging a return to negotiations.”

 

 

https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1130447.html?fbclid=IwAR3OwsYt4bHxGkguvUL95xW_sN6K9KIzbuGAT-Jb1Z387-LrvOE5VnOoWNo

[Yervant1]

Feb 14 2024

Pan-Turkism and Islamism Drive Azerbaijani and Turkish Aggression against Armenians

by Uzay Bulut
Middle East Forum Observer

On February 13, 2024, less than a month after both Turkey and Azerbaijan threatened Armenia with renewed war, Azerbaijan killed four Armenian soldiers in Armenia's Syunik province. It was not an isolated incident. With Turkish backing, Azerbaijan attacked southern Armenia in September 2022 and has since occupied several dozen square miles of Armenian territory. Between 2020 and 2023, Azerbaijan also conducted an ethnic cleansing campaign in Nagorno-Karabakh to drive out the indigenous Armenian Christian population. While both Turkey and Azerbaijan have long cited the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute to explain their hostility to and rejection of Armenia, Azerbaijan's capture of the entire territory has not brought peace. Rather, in the months since, Azerbaijan's probing attacks on Armenia's frontier have continued.

What then motivates Azerbaijan and Turkey's hostility toward and rejection of Armenia?

Their efforts are doomed to fail, however, because they ignore the two ideologies driving the conflict: Pan-Turkism and Islamism.

While National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Antony Blinken negotiate with their Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts to win peace between the two former Soviet republics, they focus on supposed grievances: Resolving Armenia's requests for the return of prisoners of war, addressing increasingly fanciful Azerbaijani territorial claims, or encouraging economic and trade integration. Their efforts are doomed to fail, however, because they ignore the two ideologies driving the conflict: Pan-Turkism and Islamism.

Pan-Turkism (or pan-Turanism) promotes the superiority of a supposed Turkish race and seeks to unite Turks from the Balkans across Turkey and Central Asia to portions of China and Siberia. In 2021, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan enthusiastically received a map of "Grand Turan" from coalition partner Devlet Bahçeli, leader of Turkey's National Movement Party (MHP). The Azerbaijani leadership, meanwhile, embraces the same ideology. Heydar Aliyev, president of Azerbaijan from 1993 to 2003, often described the relationship between Turkey and Azerbaijan "as one nation, two states," a mantra his son and successor Ilham also embraces.

For both Erdoğan and Aliyev, Armenia's independence is the main impediment to realization of Greater Turan for a simple reason: Armenia blocks Turkic territorial continuity. This is the main reason why Azerbaijan rejects any recognition of Armenia despite the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute in Azerbaijan's favor. Increasingly, both Aliyev and Azerbaijan's media refer to Armenia as "western Azerbaijan," indicating a rejection of its very legitimacy.

Erdoğan's Islamism imbues pan-Turanism as religious mandate. During Azerbaijan's 2020 war on Armenians, Erdoğan declared, "We support Azerbaijan until victory ... I tell my Azerbaijani brothers: May your ghazwa be blessed." His reference to ghazwa refers to battles in which Muslims engaged non-Muslims to expand Muslim territory. Azerbaijan's systematic destruction of Armenia's religious heritage further demonstrates this aspect, as do Islamic State-like beheadings and mutilations of Armenian prisoners by Azerbaijani soldiers. Often, Aliyev rewards such atrocities, as when he personally awarded the Azerbaijani officer who beheaded a captured Yezidi in 2016. Turkey also transported Syrian and Libyan Islamic State veterans from the Islamic State to supplement Azerbaijani forces during the Nagorno-Karabakh War. What the United States sees as a land and legal dispute, Ankara and Baku see as jihad.

Against this backdrop, it is imperative that neither the United States nor Europe view the death of four Armenian soldiers yesterday on Armenian soil as an accident to overlook as Washington seeks a broader peace deal.

For too long, wishful thinking hampered U.S. policy toward Turkey. Successive administrations and a generation of diplomats saw in Erdoğan what they wished he would be rather than what he was: a populist and Islamist who prioritized his Muslim Brotherhood exegesis and personal wealth above the constitution and the welfare of the Turkish people. Today, the same pattern repeats with Aliyev, who presents himself as a secularist but, behind-the-scenes, pursues an irredentist and Islamist agenda in concert with Erdoğan.

The two countries today act in concert against Armenia. Both blockade Armenia. Neither has diplomatic relations, and both deny its legitimacy and historical legacy as the first Christian country. The Turkish Army continues to train and often command its Azerbaijani counterpart.

Against this backdrop, it is imperative that neither the United States nor Europe view the death of four Armenian soldiers yesterday on Armenian soil as an accident to overlook as Washington seeks a broader peace deal. Rather, they are a sign Erdoğan and Aliyev will never sacrifice their core ideology nor honor any piece of paper in which naïve Western officials demand they affix their signatures.

Uzay Bulut is a Turkish journalist formerly based in Ankara.

https://www.meforum.org/65563/pan-turkism-and-islamism-drive-azerbaijani

[Yervant1]

 

eurasianet

Feb 16 2024

 

Azerbaijani president signals further divergence from West in inauguration speech

 

Aliyev also spoke in exultant tones about pan-Turkic cooperation and rejected any outside mediation in the peace talks with Armenia.

Azerbaijan is drifting further and further away from the West.

As though any further indication of this was needed, President Ilham Aliyev made it painfully clear in his inaugural address on February 14.

He had won election to a fifth term a week earlier with 92 percent of the vote.

Shortly before the poll, Aliyev had already threatened that his country would leave top European bodies, namely the Council of Europe and the European Court of Human Rights. This was shortly after the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe voted to kick out the Azerbaijani delegation.

"Sometimes we hear that some countries or a group of countries want to take over the functions of the international community and try to speak on behalf of it. When they have nothing to say, they say that the international community will not perceive this issue well," Aliyev said in his lengthy inaugural address, without naming any country or institution.

"First, it is a matter of modesty. Any limited number of 20-30 countries cannot speak on behalf of the international community, not to mention one country. The international community is on our side, the international community supported us during the Second Karabakh War [in 2020] and the anti-terror operation [seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh of September 2023]. I think the international reputation of Azerbaijan is not a secret to anyone today."

However, he went on to name several organizations, of which Azerbaijan is a member, that his country will continue to support and be part of, making it clear that earlier he was only addressing Western institutions and countries. Aliyev also made clear what international bodies he did like.

"Should we bow to those who do not want to accept us somewhere? Absolutely not! Our family is the Turkic world. We feel perfectly fine there. We have brotherly relations with all countries that are members of the Organization of Turkic States, and our policy is to solidify the Organization of Turkic States," he continued. "It is a vast geography, an extensive territory, a large military prowess, a substantial economy, natural resources, transportation routes, a young and growing population, and peoples from the same roots. Can there be a stronger union than this? Of course not! We must make a joint effort so that the Organization of Turkic States becomes an important actor and power center in the global arena. We can only achieve this together."

He added the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and the Non-Aligned Movement as unions that his country will be loyal to, for they "always stood with Azerbaijan during and after the Second Karabakh War."

"If it is necessary to help solve the problems facing member countries, of course, we will do that," he promised.

At the same time, pro-government media have been ramping up their anti-West coverage. Prominent news agency Report.az ran separate editorials this week criticizing France and the U.S.

Azerbaijan's relations with the West have not always been smooth, especially ever since the 2020 war, as Baku accused several Western countries of pro-Armenian bias. The exception was the country's commitment to the EU-led mediation efforts between itself and Armenia in negotiating a peace treaty. But even on that front, Aliyev presented an ultimatum in his inaugural address.

"The process of normalization of Azerbaijan-Armenia relations should be dropped from the international agenda. Because apparently every other party wants to deal with this issue. Mind your own business! This is why I don't want to spend a lot of time on this topic because it's not worth it. We have resolved our problem," he said. Elsewhere in his speech he warned Armenia to modify its constitution; otherwise, there will be no peace treaty.

Azerbaijan has also been increasingly critical of the EU mission deployed to the border with Armenia. Before and after a recent deadly operation near the border, the government and its affiliated media criticized the mission.

On February 13, on the day the attack happened, the EU High Representative Josep Borrell told a briefing, which he held together with Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, that Azerbaijan is to blame for its "disproportionate response" as it went to kill four Armenian soldiers.

Azerbaijan's foreign ministry clapped back, calling the operation "totally adequate and of a local character."

"Moreover, we must reiterate that the proposal of the High Representative of the European Union for the distancing of forces, which has no practical significance, is regretful," the statement read in English. "The EU should take into account the fact that the mercenaries deployed by Armenia in border regions under the 'patronage of the European Union Mission' jeopardize the lives of Azerbaijani servicemen and civilians."

https://eurasianet.org/azerbaijani-president-signals-further-divergence-from-west-in-inauguration-speech

[Yervant1]

Armenpress.am

Azerbaijan falsely accuses Armenia of border shooting

14:40, 16 February 2024

YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 16, ARMENPRESS. The Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense has released fake news accusing the Armenian military of opening fire across the border, the Ministry of Defense of Armenia said.

“The statement of the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan alleging that on February 16, at 12:50 p.m., units of the Armenian Armed Forces opened fire towards Azerbaijani combat positions in the eastern part of the border, is disinformation,” the Ministry of Defense of Armenia said.

 

 

https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1130462.html?fbclid=IwAR0JnBnPGI_PgBAp3taswurz8GWJOiDarLwhcNSlRKTDYtzweE4adOONl0Y

[Yervant1]

Two faced fake sultan is at it again. Say something in front of foreign leaders and do the opposite at home! Can't trust a habitual liar.

UrduPoint

Feb 17 2024

Baku, Yerevan Pledge To Resolve Differences Without Force: Scholz

Muhammad Irfan

Armenia and Azerbaijan's presidents pledged Saturday to resolve differences through peaceful means, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said after holding three-way talks between the leaders

Munich, (APP - UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News - 17th Feb, 2024) Armenia and Azerbaijan's presidents pledged Saturday to resolve differences through peaceful means, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said after holding three-way talks between the leaders.

At the meeting in Munich with Armenia's President Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijan counterpart Ilham Aliyev, Scholz urged a rapid conclusion of peace talks, according to a statement issued by the chancellery.

"The chancellor praised pledges from both sides today, to resolve differences in opinion and open questions exclusively through peaceful means and without the use of force," added the statement.

No official statements have been issued from either side regarding the talks.

But the promises to avoid conflict would be a marked change in tone from Pashinyan's warning on Thursday that Azerbaijan was planning a "full-scale war".

On Tuesday, both sides also accused each other of opening fire on their volatile border, in a skirmish Armenia said left four of its soldiers dead.

Tensions between the two Caucasus neighbours have remained high since Baku re-captured the Armenian-populated region of Nagorno-Karabakh last September in a lightning military offensive.

Yerevan is concerned that Azerbaijan, emboldened by its success in Karabakh, could invade Armenian territory in order to create a land bridge to its exclave of Nakhchivan.

Aliyev, who won re-election this month, said in an inauguration speech Wednesday it was Armenia, not Azerbaijan, that had outstanding territorial claims.

Pashinyan and Aliyev previously said a peace agreement could have been signed by the end of last year, but internationally mediated peace talks have failed to yield a breakthrough.

In a bilateral meeting also in Munich, Pashinyan told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Saturday morning that that had been a "new escalation" with Azerbaijan, in reference to the latest skirmish.

Aliyev is due to hold separate talks with Blinken later Saturday on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference.

https://www.urdupoint.com/en/world/baku-yerevan-pledge-to-resolve-differences-w-1796240.html

 

[Yervant1]

Armenpress.am

Azerbaijan ramping up arms purchases, warns Armenian Ambassador to EU

17:48, 19 February 2024

YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 19, ARMENPRESS. Azerbaijan is buying drones and military equipment from abroad amid heightened tensions with Armenia, Armenia’s Ambassador to the EU Tigran Balayan told Brussels Signal.

Speaking to Brussels Signal, Tigran Balayan said that Armenia has tracked suspected munitions purchases which have reportedly come in on military flights from countries including Israel and Turkey. These deliveries are suspected to include drones.

“60 per cent or 70 per cent of Azerbaijani military hardware comes from Israel, then Turkey,” he said during an interview with Justin Stares, Head of News at Brussels Signal.

He also noted that there had been increased military flights from Serbia, which, he said, had “just announced the agreement about selling some sophisticated artillery equipment to Azerbaijan.”

Speaking about the latest Azeri attack in Syunik province which left 4 Armenian troops dead, Ambassador Balayan said that the shooting could’ve been Azerbaijan’s response to increased Armenian cooperation with the European Union.

“That [attack] was a message, not only to Armenia, but also to Brussels,” Balayan said, noting that the incident took place several hours before an EU-Armenia Partnership Council meeting.

The attack represented an explicit “challenge” to EU “authority” in the region, he said.

According to the Armenian ambassador, Azerbaijan has no intention to end the conflict with Armenia.

“Despite all the warning calls, Azerbaijan didn’t stop its aggressive rhetoric, aggressive actions, killing, and provocation,” he said.

 

 

https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1130674.html?fbclid=IwAR3A7_DBdh-XASFTX0oBTxoJnPuBoHE5Rp2iUTMNMUXJeolIwHzNt5l4uYU

[Yervant1]

Armenpress.am

Azerbaijan desecrating graves in Nagorno-Karabakh – Armenian Ambassador to Belgium

19:07, 19 February 2024

YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 19, ARMENPRESS. Azerbaijan is desecrating the graves of ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, Tigran Balayan, the Ambassador of Armenia to Belgium and the head of Armenia’s mission to the European Union told Brussels Signal.

Speaking to Brussels Signal, Tigran Balayan said that Azerbaijan has begun destroying religious artefacts belonging to the former Armenian population of the region, the vast majority of whom have since fled the territory.

“The war against Armenian cemeteries has started,” the official said during an interview with Justin Stares, Head of News at Brussels Signal.

“We have tons of video and photo evidence that they are starting to ruin the cemeteries in the villages and also the churches.”

Balayan went on to claim the country was also demolishing smaller churches across Nagorno-Karabakh, saying that the one in his native village had been destroyed.

Azerbaijan has, he added, also removed religious symbols from larger buildings.

“All the crosses from all Armenian churches in Nagorno-Karabakh were removed by occupying soldiers,” he said.

Balayan’s assertions stood in stark contrast to those made by Azerbaijani officials in recent weeks.

After a period of detente between the two Caucasus countries, tensions have once again spiked. That came after a clash on the border between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces, as a result 4 Armenian troops dead.

Speaking to Brussels Signal, presidential representative Elchin Amirbayov insisted that his country remained committed to protecting the rights of ethnic Armenians in the disputed territory.

He added that Azerbaijan would “welcome back” any ethnic Armenians who had fled the region, describing them as being entitled to Azerbaijani citizenship in the same way other ethnic minorities in the country are.

That was rejected by Balayan, who instead said Azerbaijan had worked to prevent the return of ethnic Armenians to Nagorno-Karabakh.

“There were attempts by some people to return. They were rejected by Azerbaijan,” he insisted.

 

 

https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1130684.html?fbclid=IwAR3A7_DBdh-XASFTX0oBTxoJnPuBoHE5Rp2iUTMNMUXJeolIwHzNt5l4uYU

[Yervant1]

Armenpress.am

New Azerbaijani attack on Armenia ‘highly likely’, Pashinyan warns

10:04, 23 February 2024

YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 23, ARMENPRESS. An Azerbaijani attack against Armenia is ‘highly likely’, Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan has warned.

“Upon analyzing the statements coming out of official Baku, we conclude that indeed an attack on Armenia is highly likely,” Pashinyan said in an interview with France 24. “Why? Because, for example, Baku very often makes statements about the so-called Western Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is basically calling the entire Republic of Armenia ‘Western Azerbaijan’, calling the territories of the Republic of Armenia as Azerbaijani ones. On the diplomatic level Azerbaijan is assuring that it doesn’t have intentions to attack, but where do these opinions on the likelihood of an attack come from? First of all, upon expressing the publicly agreed principles in the text of the peace treaty we see some difficulties caused by Azerbaijan. Secondly, it is the public narrative voiced on the highest level, which, in short, is reflected in calling the Republic of Armenia as ‘Western Azerbaijan’. Third, the aggressiveness on the border. For example, the latest incident, when we had four deaths, this incident wasn’t anyhow justified. They stated that one of their soldiers was wounded, and we stated that we would investigate, because there’s an order not to carry out any unjustified actions, and if it turns out that there is a violation of that order there would be consequences envisaged by law. Despite these statements, Azerbaijan took advantage of that occasion in order to display aggression. It is the combination of these facts that leads many Armenian and international experts to conclude that Azerbaijan is planning a new attack on Armenia.”

 

 

https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1130939.html?fbclid=IwAR1Kqzq7jV6O-dAqmFTJnOIeTemnq4fnSl3gScV9mGGqVDdATqjZp0ia-Zg

[Yervant1]

Armenpress.am

Azerbaijani Defense Ministry spreads disinformation

16:18, 23 February 2024

YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 23, ARMENPRESS. The Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan has disseminated disinformation accusing Armenia of opening fire, the Armenian Ministry of Defense said.

“The statement issued by the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan that, allegedly, on February 23 the units of the Armenian Armed Forces opened fire in the direction of the Azerbaijani positions located in the eastern part of the border zone does not correspond to reality,’’ the ministry said.

 

 

https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1130991.html?fbclid=IwAR25KF0ebCKxMnTI7q3xbp47BT3JG-Fr6sbkx9AcwqZwp0vLYL3yKSirA7w

[Yervant1]

Armenpress.am

Azerbaijani forces open fire at Armenian military positions in Gegharkunik Province, coordinates released

17:35, 24 February 2024

YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 24, ARMENPRESS. The Azerbaijani military opened gunfire on February 24 at Armenian Armed Forces posts in the area of Verin Shorzha, Gegharkunik Province, the Ministry of Defense has said.

In a statement, the Ministry of Defense presented the coordinates of the Azerbaijani position from where the shooting occurred.

The Defense Ministry also warned that Azeri authorities are again spreading disinformation.

“The Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Armenia refutes the statement by the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan, which claimed that on February 24th, around 12:45 p.m., Armenian Armed Forces units had allegedly fired toward Azerbaijani positions in the eastern part of the border. This claim does not align with reality. Simultaneously, the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Armenia informs that on February 24th, at approximately 12:30 p.m., Azerbaijani armed forces units discharged fire against Armenian military positions near Verin Shorzha in the Gegharkunik region. The fire was directed towards the Armenian positions from the Azerbaijani position located at the following coordinates: 40 °05'31.68" N, 45 °52'51.44" E.,” the Ministry of Defense said.

 

 

https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1131067.html?fbclid=IwAR25dMSJVl6d8Rt9Y93At-97sM8mfmId_Ks4n_-zpZylPgyp8drZdbcFYkQ

[Yervant1]

PRESS RELEASE
German-Armenian Society
Contact: Dr. Raffi Kantian
E-mail: info@deutscharmenischegesellschaft.de
Web: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.deutscharmenischegesellschaft.de__;!!LIr3w8kk_Xxm!q5fyaZx-aUDZ7Xsp57EuASIM0oxK2GjlPyuLtVdQnSUUTeiMdkYaQfOd2P1yChmP7K0yoQ3EyaImvnUaeaHo$ZOOM talk on Tuesday, 27 February 2024, at 7:00 p.m. CET.

With DUSTIN HOFFMANN, LL.M. in Public International Law and expert at the European Parliament.on

"PACE shows Azerbaijan its limits. What next after the consistent step taken by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE)?"For participation registration is necessary. Interested parties are kindly asked to send an e-mail with their first name, last name, and affiliation by 26 February 2024 to info@deutscharmenischegesellschaft.de.The language of the event is German.

Background:

The starting point of the discourse is the resolution "Challenge, on substantive grounds, of the still unratified credentials of the parliamentary delegation of Azerbaijan" of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) , Resolution 2527 (2024).Some quotes:

- Very serious concerns remain as to its ability to conduct free and fair elections, the separation of powers, the weakness of its legislature vis-à-vis the executive, the independence of the judiciary and respect for human rights, as illustrated by numerous judgments of the European Court of Human Rights and opinions of the European Commission for Democracy through Law (Venice Commission). - Regarding the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, the Assembly established the absence of a free and safe access through the Lachin Corridor in its Resolution 2508 (2023) “Ensuring free and safe access through the Lachin corridor” and was struck by the fact that Azerbaijan’s leadership did not acknowledge the very serious humanitarian and human rights consequences stemming from that situation, which lasted for nearly ten months. Moreover, in its Resolution 2517 (2023) and Recommendation 2260 (2023) “The humanitarian situation in Nagorno-Karabakh”, the Assembly condemned the Azerbaijani army’s military operation of September 2023, which led to the flight of the entire Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia and to allegations of “ethnic cleansing”. The Assembly recalls that in Resolution 2517 (2023) it did not exclude challenging the credentials of the Azerbaijani delegation at its first part-session of 2024.

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