Urgent-Revolution in Armenia .

MJ · February 22, 2003

Another interesting material, I think - this time in English. There is an interesting comment regarding Karabagh.

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Agony

18.02.2003,

The round of the pre-electoral preaching is over. Every candidate carried out his preaching more or less successfully, naturally, each typical to his style. Some of them preferred representing their own programs to devoting most of their time to anti-preaching of the others. Naturally, the candidates mainly visited all the regions.

During the last days of preaching, the candidates or electoral staffs publicly estimated their own chances as well. The main opposition candidates either declared that are going to win in the first round or pointed out that two opposition candidates will compete in the second round. Head of the present president's staff declared that Robert Kocharian would win just in the first round. Dynamics of the represented figures is rather worth attention. If at the beginning of the publicity campaign "the rented sociologists" used to speak of fantastic 75% percent of votes, now at his last press conference S. Sargsian stated only "50% percent and more", what means that even the authorities take into consideration with the registered progress of the opposition.

Rather interesting is the change of mood among our countrymen. The opposition candidates are evidently welcomed in the regions of Armenia, sometimes even with great delight and excitement. As for the present president, he wasn't welcomed at all, especially during the last days, and even mobilization of administration didn't change the situation.

The fact, that the authorities are rather nervous, is obvious from the last press conference of S. Sargsian. At this conference he used such vocabulary that hasn't been used by him so far. His ironical smile was eloquent as well and one could see it during the whole program. The masterpiece of the press conference was another unexpected step by Sargsian - the division of the society into "we" and "they". Logic of it was rather clear: for "we" he meant those from Artsakh, for "they" - the others and especially for the opposition, which was accused of having anti-Karabagh moods and intending "to hand" it. Even a map depicted on a slogan of one of the candidates was qualifies as "liberated territories handed over beforehand". Certainly, such accusation is beyond any understanding, as one could easily regard all the TV channels broadcasting weather as traitors, since they all widely use the same map. Nevertheless, people of Artsakh will hardly wish to identify themselves with these two, and the letter of 8000 people from Artsakh, read by Albert Bazeyan at the opposition referendum, proves it rather well.

By the way, it's not by chance that the ARP and particularly the prime minister have been rather modest during the whole preaching campaign; actually their participation in the publicity campaign of the present president had only symbolic nature. Perhaps, they prefer waiting, moreover, when there are no sign of unity among the authority elite. Particularly interesting is the fact that during the last few days, representatives of the authorities, including first of all those appointed by the president of RA, were substituted in the electoral committees.

S. Sargsian has appealed his team members "to calm down", "to behave themselves", "not to let any falsification"; when a high-ranking official talks about rigged elections, it means they are really expected. In fact, pre-electoral staffs and opposition mass media are overflowed with various and numerous alarms concerning electoral transgression.

It's also important that S. Sargsian declared that till the Election Day and right on the Election Day there'll be "no use of force". But he didn't tell that after elections, for example in case of defeat of the authorities or in case of the population's revolt against adulteration, there'll be no use of force either, so one shouldn't exclude that September 26 of 1996 can be repeated. By the way, there are rather hysterical declarations in the authority camp according to what if Robert Kocharian isn't elected, the country will be lost, or they ascribe unleashing a civil war to the opposition. Rather eloquent evidence of community mood is the opposition city referendum, which wasn't at all different from that of 1988, and it's worth mentioning that speeches of the speakers were warmly applauded even in the back rows. Such things haven't at all happened at any referendum in the square of Liberty.

No figures are to be represented here, but one can't ignore the fact that the second round is inevitable. Anyway, we just have to hope that everything will finish in a peaceful way, without any clashes and that people will actively participate in the coming elections just to have a chance of choice.

www.iravunk.com

MosJan · February 22, 2003

Your Welcome to post any* material or opinion* you may have as long as you don't get personal and follow the code of conduct, which some members haven't been doing recently

* See code of conduct

MOvses

[ February 21, 2003, 12:15 PM: Message edited by: MosJan ]

MJ · February 22, 2003

Outside Eye: A non-Armenian's view of life in his adopted home

By John Hughes

Editor After boasting - as early as four months ago and as recently as Wednesday - that he would be re-elected without a runoff, Robert Kocharyan may be just days away from losing his presidency to a ghost.

Stepan Demirchyan got enough votes Wednesday to force a runoff, but it was his slain father, Karen, whose reputation earned them.

Armenia has unexpectedly become a boiler of potential political upheaval bubbling under one of winter's biggest snows.

Into that snow on Wednesday voters went to speak their minds and again on Thursday, some 10,000 or so, to shout their claims that their voting rights were abused.

Turns out that foreign observers agreed with the protesters' claims. And now not only is the President's career in jeopardy but his legacy polished by a reign over historic economic growth is threatened with the tarnish of his having staged a corrupt campaign and still losing.

In the few words he managed for Thursday's rally, Demirchyan promised that his first order of business if elected President would be to punish those who tried to steal the election from him.

His comrades in opposition used words such as "rape" and "political corpses" to emphasize their commitment to the cause. All the rhetoric needed was a "smoke him out" reference and it could have been a Bush vs. Bin Laden rally.

The politics of revenge may determine Armenia's next President, but even the most anti-Kocharyan voter must wonder what kind of house Demirchyan would set up once he'd cleaned the current one.

It would likely be a house into which veteran statesmen such as Vazgen Manoukyan, Artashes Geghamyan and Raffi Hovhanissian would be welcomed. And their association may, second to his name, be Demirchyan's strongest credential.

In Armenia's last Presidential election in 1998, it was Karen Demirchyan and Kocharyan in a hotly contested runoff. (Karen Demirchyan, who became Speaker of Parliament, was one of eight leaders assassinated in 1999.)

Nostalgia for a past that is no longer possible in independent Armenia has thrust Stepan Demirchyan into a role once held by his Communist leader father. And if the people who are trying to put him in power are merely voting for "the good old days", then disappointment can be the expected fruit of their campaign season.

No one must be more shocked than Robert Kocharyan these days, unless it is those who have ridden his reign to their own places of power and may now be two weeks away from abrupt career changes.

I don't know anybody who likes Robert Kocharyan. I do know, however, people who voted for him reluctantly because the alternatives were not strong enough to win their confidence. I doubt anything will happen before March 5to change those votes.

But it must concern Kocharyan supporters that, even with the privilege of power afforded him to abuse voting legislation (as a joint report by observers from OSCE, ODIHR and PACE has confirmed), he failed not only to receive a mandate but even to win in the manner he said he would.

Long before the well-meaning West sent its overseers here to judge Armenia's ability to behave democratically, measures - some through the subtle means of legislation and others as blatant as a bullet - were being taken to assure a Kocharyan victory.

You have to be here awhile to see the pieces fall into place. I hadn't been here long enough to see the cause and effect potential last April when the only oppositional television station, A1+, was denied a broadcast license.

While local colleagues were trying to convince me of Government conspiracy, I argued that the television company simply failed to produce a good business plan.

At the time one local journalist told me this was the beginning of the Presidential campaign. I now see that she was right, as on Wednesday, State-sanctioned television and a Foreign Ministry-supported website proclaimed a calm and clean election while all day long our newsroom and other media had received reports to the contrary of ballot stuffing, outright beatings of journalists and proxy observers and even of one ballot box that was stolen.

Most of the country relies on television for its news, and, in the absence of A1+ there was no broadcast that didn't follow the Party line.

It is no coincidence, either, that a decision on assigning a new frequency that might have gone to A1+ - which should have been made in November - was postponed until after the election, by a Commission that is appointed by the President.

And speaking of postponements: On January 17, two days after an attorney claimed he would produce evidence implicating Kocharyan sympathizers in the 1999 Parliament assassinations, the trial of the accused was put on hold and - after more than a year of steady and almost daily testimony - has not had a session since.

If at first an outsider is naïve about how things work here, the pendulum might later swing to paranoia.

Still, I wonder too why in a country as small as this, the public has yet to be given results of a census taken in October 2001. The entire population of Russia was counted and figures released in two months. Yet in this little place we're supposed to believe that the process takes 19 months - as a report is expected in June, after the Parliamentary elections. Might an up-to-date account of the numbers make it impossible for the Kocharyan camp to have gotten the votes claimed?

In any case, whether by his own manipulation or the Opposition's impotence, Robert Kocharyan got nearly twice as many votes as the next man, and was only 0.2 percent away from the 50 percent (plus one vote) required to win.

He was only about 4,500 votes shy of the combined votes of his eight opponents. Again today his promoters are confidently predicting victory in the run off.

But in the dimmed sun of bright campaign promise, long shadows fall from his term in office and chill a disenfranchised citizenry who at best might be tolerant though it deserves to be hopeful.

He has run on a platform that recounts five years of economic growth. And it is undeniable that Armenia is in better fiscal condition than at anytime since independence, with evidence that the trend will continue.

But consider this: Who but a total incompetent or outright adversary could stop the growth, considering that so much of it comes from international aid, out to buy good will and regional stability, and from a Diaspora eager to build a country regardless of who runs it?

And who has profited from the economic boom? Certainly not the thousands who have fled the country during Kocharyan's administration, so perhaps others, including Government Ministers who make routine gambling trips to Moscow and own banks, hotels and discos.

It is known here that the President's wife recently bought one of the privatized hospitals and that his former political allies now running Artsax are in line to buy two others, one of which, a source tells me, was ordered privatized by the President over the objection of Parliament.

Maybe there's nothing wrong with former Communists capitalizing on capitalism, except that anybody who has so much as paid off a traffic cop knows that in this country business success comes from skirting the law. And even the perception of corruptibility damages a public's ability to believe its leadership.

The argument is well made that a flourish of new business brings jobs and that "trickle down" economics could save the middle class.

I hope that is true. But many of us would like it if the trickle didn't so often stop in the pockets of Ministers and mobsters whose loyalty to the man in charge is bought by guarantees of personal financial excess.

Finally, it should not be forgotten that Robert Kocharyan dominates the political scene here today only because his two principal rivals for power were murdered on the floor of the Parliament. Whether either of the assassinated would have led Armenia any better will forever remain unknown. The "martyred" were also flawed men.

But one left a ghost. And whether or not he is Presidential material, he has risen to have haunting effects on the plans of this President and his men.

www.armenianow.com

MJ · February 22, 2003

Decision 2003: Voting day turned from fair to foul at some precincts

By Gayane Abrahamyan, Zhanna Alexanyan,

Vahan Ishkanyan and Gayane Mkrtchyan

ArmeniaNow reporters On Election Day, Wednesday, a woman named Louisa who lives in the Arabkir area of Yerevan received a knock on her door and was offered 5,000 drams (about $8.60) if she would sign an agreement to vote for President Robert Kocharyan. She was also offered a ride to and from her voting precinct station.

The campaigners took Louisa's name and passport money. Louisa took the money and the ride.

"One way or another I was going to vote for Kocharyan," she said later. "But the money won't do any harm."

Actions such as money for votes were among accounts of violations leading a collection of foreign monitors to conclude that the first round of the 2003 Presidential election did not meet international standards of a democratic election.

A proxy of Stepan Demirchyan complained that at poling station 260710 in Echmiadzin at about 8:30 a.m., when around 30 votes had been cast, a group appeared and put more than 80 pre-marked ballots into the box.

The accusation was recorded by a team of foreign observers on the site and similar violations were reported in three other Echmiadzin stations around 6:30 p.m.

At School No. 2, Elena Paronyan, a proxy of the Armenian Communist Party reported that a group including the Mayor of Echmiadzin, Hakob Hakobyan, and Robert Kocharyan's local campaign manager Hrachik Abgaryan "surrounded the electoral box. Whoever you complain to, they shut your mouth. They did their job laughing and went away."

At another site a proxy, who wished to remain anonymous, says about 30 "broad-shouldered men" surrounded the electoral box in three rows, and "the number of electoral papers they put into the box corresponds to the number of people registered in Armenia but living in other countries. They did their calculations in advance."

Complaints were made to Central Electoral Commission president Seyran Melkonyan who said: "They went out and left without saying anything. I did not prevent that. What should I do?"

The editorial office of ArmeniaNow received a call from School No. 172 in Yerevan that a man took a bundle of ballots from underneath his coat and put them in the ballot box. At that location Demirchyan proxy Kamo Avetisyan claimed that about 200 false ballots had been cast.

Anna Arzakanyan, an observer with the Non-Governmental Organization "The Choice is Yours" said she witnessed the ballot box stuffing and that police on the scene did not intervene though they were allowed to. Electoral Commission representative Lianna Mkrtchyan says she was talking and saw nothing.

Five Opposition candidates signed a letter to the Electoral Commission, citing 10 violations, including charges that names of the deceased were included on voter registration lists.

The letter also alleged that a group of young men in the village of Ohanyan tried to stuff a ballot box and when they were stopped, stole the box.

Candidate Vazgen Manoukyan assessed the process of elections in 2003 as worse than in 1996 and 1998.

"I have much information," the former Prime Minister said. "There probably were violations such as filling voting boxes in 1996, but that time the majority of violations were made through registrations. This is being organized by the authorities intentionally in order to guarantee the percentage."

Adrine Avagyan, 27, proxy for Manoukyan in election district No. 40, says she was attacked when she tried to interfere with a man who was putting multiple ballots in the box.

"I wasn't able to take the ballots from him," Avagyan said. "He threw me to the ground and continued to beat and curse."

Election Commission member Venera Stepanyan says that at her poling station in Nairy Zaryan school Election Day went smoothly until about 30 minutes before closing time.

At around 7:30 p.m.: "About 20 people gathered and created disorder. They stood near the ballot box. We told them to stay away from the box but they didn't. Then the lights went off and noise was raised."

Nubar Gevorgyan, who was in charge of watching the box said men were trying to take away the ballot box.

"When the lights went off I put my hand on the box but when they pushed me away I didn't see what happened next," Gevorgyan said, showing his hand which had been scraped when the box was pulled away.

(At an upstairs station in the same school at around 4 p.m. a proxy chased but was unable to catch a man they say put several ballots into the box.)

Sophelia Vardanyan, who teaches Armenian language and was standing as an observer for "The Choice Is Yours", was pushed away by the intruders.

She was crying of insult and trembling of fear following the incident.

"I've been respecting Kocharyan until this moment," she said. "Now he is disgusting to me. How can I register these breaches? I can't write down incorrect information. But I am afraid to tell the truth. Who knows who is who? My son is attending this school. I don't want somebody to hurt him."

Proxies and Commission members opened the box to inspect the wrinkled ballots and found they contained votes for President Kocharyan. It turns out that, although the ballots contained Commission member signatures, the stamp necessary to validate the votes had come from a different precinct.

(On the night before an election, Commission members sign ballots which are then placed in a safe. After a vote has been made, a different Commission member than the one who signed the ballot, stamps the ballot in the presence of the voter, who then places the ballot in the box. It is possible that the men obtained the signed ballots overnight and hoped that the Commission members would only look at the signature and not the stamp. In any case, 150 votes with the wrong stamp were declared invalid.)

Zhanna Antonyan of Yerevan says that neither she nor her 25-year old daughter's names were listed on a voting register, but that her husband, who died seven years ago, was.

She said she would not bother with going to the court to have her name restored.

"I'm really tired of doing this every election," she said. "Let them do whatever they want with my vote."

It has been a season of many emotions, Decision 2003. Doves of peace were offered and officers to enforce that peace were stationed around the Central Elections Commission.

www.armenianow.com

MJ · February 22, 2003

The declaration below seems to be the latest development that I know. My understanding is that when California wakes up tomorrow, information about further escalation will have arrived, I think.

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KOCHARIAN AND HIS REGIME ATTEMPT TO "USURP POWER": DEMIRCHIAN

YEREVAN, February 22 (Noyan Tapan). Robert Kocharian and his

regime are making unconcealed attempts to usurp power under the

guise of elections. The public will and determination to prevent

this from happening have already made the criminal regime back off

and abandon their designs to declare Kocharian the winner in the

first round. This is the statement of the presidential candidate,

PPA leader Stepan Demirchian, which was made public in a press

conference on February 22. According to Demirchian's statement, this

aspiration of the authorities is testified to by the mass violations

and riggings committed in Kocharian's favor with the participation

of pro-establishment representatives during the February 19 voting

and the subsequent vote count, the inaction of the Central Electoral

Commission that had failed to prevent those violations, the failure

to stop the law-enforcement bodies from taking violent actions, and

finally the February 22 arrests of people who participated in the

previous day's protest rally in Yerevan. According to the document,

the sum of the data already falsified in precincts has nothing to do

with the published votes, which is evidenced by the fact that the CEC

avoids providing a precinct-by-precinct breakdown of the vote. "The

attempts to apply force to stifle the will of the people expressed on

February 19 in order to retain power by all means is the last-ditch

efforts of the agonizing anti-popular, criminal regime. All these

attempts are futile. The united people will achieve a victory," the

author of the statement stresses, adding that an attempt to usurp

power is the gravest crime, and the whole responsibility for its

consequences lies entirely with Robert Kocharian.

[ February 22, 2003, 04:23 PM: Message edited by: MJ ]

MJ · February 22, 2003

quote:

Originally posted by MJ:

Another outcome is the regimes resignation conditional to Demirchian's issuance of a pardon to some key players in the regime.

Here is the second step (the furst step being the "coaches coaching of the opposition:")

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STEPAN DEMIRTCHYAN WILL NOT ACCEPT KOCHARYAN'S PROPOSAL TO MEET

Arminfo

22 Feb 2003

FEBRUARY 22. "Neither Robert Kocharyan not representatives of his

electoral staff have not asked me to meet with them," presidential

candidate, leader of the People's Party of Armenia Stepan Demirtchyan

said at a press-conference today.

He said that he does not want to meet with a man who sponsors criminal

structures. He said that he did not proclaim himself a presidential. "I

only said that the first round was rigged and the falsifiers must

be punished."

According to head of Demirtchyan's electoral staff Grikor Haroutyunyan

the real picture was received only in 50% of the electoral

districts. According to the data collected, Pres.Kocharyan polled

42%. If one adds to this figure CEC's falsified data from the remaining

electoral districts, Kocharyan polls 46.6% at most, but never 49.8%.

MJ · February 22, 2003

And here speaks the top plunderer and murderer of Armenia:

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OPPOSITION'S ACTIONS JEOPARDIZE ARMENIA'S SECURITY: DEFENCE MINISTRY

Arminfo

22 Feb 2003

FEBRUARY 22. The opposition's current actions break the internal

stability in Armenia and jeopardize the country's constitutional

order and security, which is pregnant with unforeseeable consequences,

the board of Armenia's Defence Ministry stated today.

In this situation the Armenian army fully supports the government. "We

urge the opposition to stop making anti-constitutional and opportunist

statements. As a guarantor of the country's security the DM reminds

that Armenia is still living in conditions of temporary armistice." The

DM urges the country's public and opposition to be sensible and

reserved, to comply with the law and to maintain the public order.

"The Armenian army will not stay passive in case of an attempt to

shatter Armenia's statehood or a possibile threat to the country's

security." "We believe that reason will triumph and the second round

of the presidential election will be held in full compliance with

the law."

Azat · February 23, 2003

very interesting article from www.armenianow.com