AZERBAIJAN-GAZPROM AGREEMENT PUTS NABUCCO IN JEOPARDY

[DominO]

AZERBAIJAN-GAZPROM AGREEMENT PUTS NABUCCO IN JEOPARDY

 

Today's Zaman

July 16 2009

Turkey

 

Russian gas company Gazprom signed a deal with State Oil Company of

the Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR) in Baku last week in connection with

the first phase of the Shah Deniz gas field to transfer 500 million

cubic meters of gas to Europe under the auspices of Gazprom. Seen as

a potential supplier for the Nabucco gas pipeline, Baku's step raised

some questions regarding Nabucco's gas supply problem.

 

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's visit to the Azerbaijani capital

of Baku last week, this time accompanied by Russian businessman Alexei

Miller, the CEO of Gazprom, Russia's largest company and the biggest

gas company in the world, was part of efforts to secure Baku's gas. The

gas is also coveted by the EU-backed $11 billion Nabucco project, a

gas pipeline project that is envisioned to transport primarily Caspian

Sea gas to Europe through Turkey, bypassing Russia. Gazprom's CEO

Miller and Rövnaq Abdullayev, the head of SOCAR, signed an agreement

to transfer 500 million cubic meters of gas from the rich Shah Deniz

gas field starting in January of next year. Russian President Medvedev

and Azerbaijani President Ä°lham Aliyev labeled the agreement a huge

step forward in energy policy and bilateral relations.

 

There is speculation that the deal is part of Russia's effort to

control all of Europe's energy routes and make the Nabucco project

redundant when considering the gas oversupply of South Stream, a

Russian-orchestrated gas pipeline aiming to transfer Caspian gas

via the Black Sea to Eastern Europe. However, President Medvedev

said their motives are solely based on economic, not political,

interest. Miller said they are looking forward to getting special

privileges in the second phase of the Shah Deniz gas field, which will

be inevitable unless other companies offer more attractive deals to

Azerbaijan. Although the current deal only allows 500 million cubic

meters of gas to be sold to Gazprom, the company foresees annual

increases in supplies to Russia in the future.

 

Although the Nabucco pipeline's sources of gas are still to be decided,

the project has been seen as one of the primary actions to counter the

difficulties raised by Russia's harsh and strict energy policies. The

EU is not a partner in the Nabucco project, but it has great interest

in keeping it safe and out of Russia's control. In the meantime,

Russia is planning to establish the rival South Stream gas pipeline.

 

Commenting on the rivalry between Nabucco and South Stream, Shirvani

Abdullayev, Russia's Alfa Bank's top oil and gas analyst, told The

Associated Press that giving Gazprom priority for the Shah Deniz gas

field would spell the end for Europe's Nabucco project. "Nabucco was

designed to use Shah Deniz gas," he said. "Now it is left without

the source of gas." Abdullayev said it was "unrealistic to think"

that South Stream and Nabucco could coexist. "The market does not

need so much gas," he said.

 

Ferruh Demirmen, an independent energy analyst based in Texas,

told Today's Zaman that "Azerbaijan sent a message to Turkey and to

the West by signing a contract with Russia." He continued, saying,

"The first gas supply for Nabucco will be from Shah Deniz-2. Nabucco's

future is in question as Shah Deniz-2's gas went to Russia."

 

Also speculating on the aftermath of the agreement on the Nabucco

project, Demirmen said, "It is undeniable that with Shah Deniz-2's

gas stream to Russia, Nabucco will be adversely influenced." Demirmen

also claimed that this agreement would "force" the other partners in

the Shah Deniz Consortium to act the same way as SOCAR. "Although

as a partner country, SOCAR has only a 10 percent share of the gas

consortium, according to the Production Sharing Agreement," Demirmen

said, "SOCAR will get the rights for a significant portion of the gas

and sell it to Russia. This situation will also push other partners

to sell their shares of gas to Russia."

 

Azerbaijan, undoubtedly, also plans to use the agreement in its foreign

policy. The long protracted conflict over the disputed territory

of Nagorno-Karabakh, an Azerbaijani territory currently controlled

by Armenian military forces, has been Azerbaijan's primary foreign

policy challenge for nearly two decades. In his interview with Today's

Zaman, Demirmen said: "Azerbaijan plans to use its gas reserves in

its foreign policy with this agreement, too. Russia, throughout the

history of gas trade with Europe, has also used its gas policy as a

geopolitical tool. This agreement shows that Azerbaijan has allied

itself with Russia. Azerbaijan's primary message to the West is about

its Nagorno-Karabakh problem."

 

Sami Sevinc, a member of the Turkish Industrialists and Businessmen's

Association's (TUSÄ°AD) Energy Working Group, told Today's Zaman that

"Turkey still produces 60 percent of its electricity from gas. If

Turkey gets gas through Gazprom and not directly from Azerbaijan,

it will be a losing situation for Turkey." At a Strategic Cooperation

Conference in Baku in September of last year there was great support

for the Nabucco project. "Azerbaijan is not giving up on the Nabucco

project," Azerbaijani Industry and Energy Minister Natiq Aliyev had

said, "This is a project that has a future."

 

Sohbet Karbuz, the head of the oil and natural gas department at the

Union of Mediterranean Energy Companies (OME), told Today's Zaman

that "the details of Azerbaijan's agreement with Gazprom are not

yet clear. An annual 500 million cubic meters of gas does not really

have importance. What's important is Shah Deniz's second phase. There

was a short 'gas crisis' between Russia and Turkmenistan, and thus

Russia's agreement with Azerbaijan also sends a warning alarm to

Turkmenistan. However, Russia cannot give up Turkmenistan. For

the South Stream [pipeline] Russia needs Turkmen gas." Speaking

optimistically about Azerbaijan's intention not to cooperate with

Nabucco, Karbuz said: "Right now, the most reasonable deal is to

send gas to Russia as there is a real gas pipeline. However, as the

fate of Nabucco is not clear, Azerbaijan, I believe, will not become

involved in large-scale agreements with Russia".

 

In his interview with Today's Zaman, Mert Bilgin, a professor

at BahceÅ~_ehir University, said: "Azerbaijan's political

goal is about Nagorno-Karabakh and the limits of compromise in

Turkey-Armenia talks. If Russia supports Azerbaijan's cause to keep

the Nagorno-Karabakh region within Azerbaijan's territory with a

largely autonomous nature, then Azerbaijan may increase the gas

supply to Russia. If Turkey makes solving this problem a priority,

the normalization of relations with Armenia, for whatever goals and

real intentions, will not be welcomed in Azerbaijan, and Russia's

regional influence will increase."

 

To end the discussions on the issue, Azerbaijani President Ä°lham

Aliyev, in a Monday speech at Chatham House in London, said they have

enough oil to sell to various parties.

 

 

[hosank]

this is so cool..finally russia exposed for what it is:

nothing more than power/oil hungry medler

[Yervant1]

this is so cool..finally russia exposed for what it is:

nothing more than power/oil hungry medler

By no means I'm a defender of Russia or care for them, but isn't the west doing the same thing? Like supporting the baboons for their oil?

It's time we learned that interests matter 100%, the rest is all salad dressings.

[DominO]

this is so cool..finally russia exposed for what it is:

nothing more than power/oil hungry medler

 

Its good news for us, we need Azerbaijan isolated in the East.

 

But I agree, Russia is doing everything to be the only supplier, it bought the Armenian side of the Iranian-Armenian pipeline project, reducing its diameter, so that it could not be used for exportation, something which would have given some geopolitical importance to Armenia.

[MosJan]

PRESIDENT SERZH SARGSYAN PAYS VISIT TO MOSCOW

 

President Serzh Sargsyan pays two-day working visit to Moscow tomorrow, President’s Cabinet reports.

 

According to the source the President will have a meeting the same day with the President of Azerbaijan Ilhaam Aliev to hold negotiations over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution.

 

It is supposed that on 18 July the Presidents of Armenia, Russia and Azerbaijan will have a joint meeting.

[MosJan]

sranist lav hot chi galis

mez hamar sa lav chi

vorqan azeri russ kap@ lavana etqan russ@ jnshum k@kortsadri Artsaxi vra, Arji @nkerutyun !!!

[DominO]

sranist lav hot chi galis

mez hamar sa lav chi

vorqan azeri russ kap@ lavana etqan russ@ jnshum k@kortsadri Artsaxi vra, Arji @nkerutyun !!!

 

Yeah, but if Azeri sell their oil to the Russians, its the promoters of the Nabbuco project and the West which will have no interest in backing Azerbaijan anymore. All those claimed security think tanks will stop pulling their durty nouse in our matters.

[Yervant1]

No matter who the baboons sell their oil to, we get screwed in the middle.

[DominO]

No matter who the baboons sell their oil to, we get screwed in the middle.

 

We can get screwed and screwed, but they won't have an inch of Artsakh. Now, who is screwed?

[Yervant1]

We can get screwed and screwed, but they won't have an inch of Artsakh. Now, who is screwed?

Are you saying if they sell it to the Russians, then Russia will not force Armenia into concessions regarding Artsakh?

[DominO]

Are you saying if they sell it to the Russians, then Russia will not force Armenia into concessions regarding Artsakh?

 

What concession? The Azeri are using their cheap tactics to influence the result of the future negociations, they won't have later any problem claiming the contract with Gazprom dead (never trust an Azeri contract). Until now they were not able as they wanted to use their oil to bargin, they now are threatning the Europeans and waiting something in exchange from Russia. The thing is they can't win in both fronts, they have to decide, either Russia or Europe. But it will be harder to convince Russia.

 

The Azeri fear was to sell its oil to Russia, Armenia having good relations with Turkey. The first step is under way.

Edited July 17, 2009 by DominO

[Yervant1]

What concession? The Azeri are using their cheap tactics to influence the result of the future negociations, they won't have later any problem claiming the contract with Gazprom dead (never trust an Azeri contract). Until now they were not able as they wanted to use their oil to bargin, they now are threatning the Europeans and waiting something in exchange from Russia. The thing is they can't win in both fronts, they have to decide, either Russia or Europe. But it will be harder to convince Russia.

 

The Azeri fear was to sell its oil to Russia, Armenia having good relations with Turkey. The first step is under way.

Let's hope that by trying to play both sides against each other they lose both sides.

[MosJan]

rus@ HAyastani ardyunaberutyan yev energyai mets mais tern e iysor, gaz hosanq .... yev yerb tsankana HAyastan@ kam gaz chi unena kam el electoenergya kam el yerkus@ irar het, ch@hashvats vor russakan zinvorn e Hayastani sahmmanerin kangnats, iynpes or yerb yev inch asi HAystan@ pit katari urish iyl@entranq chi unena....

[MosJan]

mnats vrastan@ - yete rus@ vrastanin el tsnnki beri - vayn yekel tarel e Hayastanin yev Artsaxtsun

[DominO]

POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ROUTES OF NABUCCO

Karine Ter-Sahakyan

 

PanARMENIAN.Net

16.07.2009 GMT+04:00

 

The essential thing to do is to bring the pipeline into Turkey, and

there are two ways to do it: to bring it from Turkmenistan through

Azerbaijan and Georgia, or from Iran through Armenia.

 

On July 13 the long-awaited agreement on beginning the realization

of the Nabucco gas pipeline was signed in Ankara, which immediately

gave rise to numerous commentaries and predictions by all interested

parties. Quite naturally, the gloomiest forecasts apropos of the

realization of the project were made by Russia. But it's fairly

explicable, because in case of exploitation of the gas pipe, Moscow

loses a very and dreadfully important lever of pressure on Europe and

the Caucasus, which in no way pleases her. Accustomed to the policy

of threats, Russian authorities will do everything in their power to

hinder the realization of Nabucco.

 

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ It is necessary to note that Russia has specific

levers to hit the target. Moscow thinks she somehow solved the

problem by buying up all the Azerbaijani gas and promising Baku a

spice-cake in the form of the Karabakh conflict "regulation". Not by

chance, indeed, were the Madrid principles, whose essence was long

a widely known secret, promulgated especially these days. However,

hardly can Azerbaijan seriously believe that the resolution will be

quite pleasing for Baku. As a matter of fact, Russia is not the one

to make resolutions, no matter how much she seeks it, because she

definitely does not match the role of a mediator-peacemaker. The same

spice-cake is stored up also for Armenia, but with some reservations

and conditions.

 

However, Moscow forgets one essential matter: the isolation of Iran is

not eternal, changes in the region occur very frequently and who can

assert that tomorrow Iran will not be allowed to the gas pipe? She

will be allowed for one simple reason: the Azerbaijani gas, even if

it is completely pumped into Nabucco, is not sufficient anyway. So,

the Turkmen or Iranian gas will be necessary. Iran, which holds the

second place in the world with its gas deposits, can easily fill up

Nabucco. As far as the Turkmen gas is concerned, Teheran can simply

buy it up and deliver it to China and the Far East countries, which

would be both cheaper and faster.

 

Actually, everything at present depends on the choice of the gas

pipe route. The essential thing to do is to bring the pipeline into

Turkey, and there are two ways to do it: either to bring it from

Turkmenistan through Azerbaijan and Georgia, or from Iran through

Armenia. The first route is political and economic, while the second

is purely economic and profitable. To all appearances, the story of

the oil pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan repeats itself: it would have

been economically more profitable for it to pass through Armenia,

but Baku with the support of Turkey and Georgia did everything in her

power to obstruct the realization of this project. However, things

are much more complicated with Nabucco. First, it is longer and,

hence, more expensive. Second, it is essential for Europe, because the

latter needs to finally reject the delivery of the Russian gas. Well,

for the same purposes Nabucco is also necessary to the region. In any

event Russia will not be able to control the gas pipe, irrespective

of which country it passes through, because she will have to manage

to close the valve in two countries simultaneously, and no one has yet

succeeded in doing it. Sure, Moscow will try to impede the construction

process and to dictate conditions. Moreover, she will do it by way of

Armenia, which in the West is considered to be the chief pro-Russian

country in the South Caucasus. And again the Iranian factor comes to

the fore. It is possible to come to an agreement with three Caucasian

countries (by hook or by crook), but Iran, who claims to the role of

the regional power, will definitely carry out her own policy. The

USA still says that Nabucco can be filled with the Russian gas,

but never with the Iranian. However, it is said only now, but as

we have already noted, there is one more possible scenario. After

the presidential elections there began cleanings on the very top in

Iran, and Leader of the Iranian nuclear program Gholamreza Aghazadeh,

who supported main oppositionist of the country Mir-Hossein Mousavi,

retired. Moreover, if Europe has to choose between Iran and Russia as

gas suppliers, most likely she will give preference to Iran: in spite

of the "irreconcilability of ayatollahs" it is always possible reach

understanding with Teheran. And though it is also possible to reach

an agreement with Moscow, it is too costly. It's no less difficult

to negotiate with Iran or Iraq, who are ready to contribute their

mite into Nabucco, but there will clearly be no blackmail on their

part. Although, who knows? But, in any event, under equal conditions,

the East gives preference to expediency and not to instantaneous

political or economic gains.

 

As far as the two supposed branches are concerned, here, unfortunately,

almost everything depends on Russia, or, to be more accurate, on her

power in resolving her regional problems. Nabucco may become that

point of no return, after which Moscow will have great difficulty in

controlling not only the conflict situation in the Caucasus, but also

the relations with seemingly friendly countries: Iran, Azerbaijan

and Armenia. Georgia, naturally, is not counted - relations with it

have been damaged for long. In a broader sense, the project is yet

beneficial far only for Turkey as the basic transit country. Armenia

can earn dividends only if she becomes the second transit county. But

truly serious geopolitical changes are necessary for this.

 

 

[hosank]

Are you saying if they sell it to the Russians, then Russia will not force Armenia into concessions regarding Artsakh?

DominO

 

YES YES YES YES...

 

look, let me give a quick rundown on armeno/russian relations in the last 200 years:..

throughout the 19th century, the russian empire (as part of a wider great game with great britain, and in the context of the wider european balance of power, which consisted of checking any advance by one power, by all the others..) has been wooing the armenians (in the same way as they wooed balkan slavs) in the ottoman empire, because of our orthodox/christian and european identity, as part of a ploy to secure a foodhold in the "sick man of europe" the ottoman empire. many times over, the russian tzar declared himself the "defender of christianity in the ottoman empire"..and so on...

 

when the russian army entered the caucasus, it fought a 30 year war against north caucasian tribes, and (previously independent) georgia..annexing and abolishing the georgian church. for armenia, russia's presence in the region was somewhat of a relief from the persian empire, as finally a christian/eastern european patron state was here to protect them from the "hordes of islamic asiatics"...this is where i must point out that the armenian church was also annexed to the russian orthodox one..(in the same way, the abkhaz church was forced into the russian orthodox one in 1997)

 

this was part of a wider conflict between the ottomans and russia which lead to at least 5 wars, including the crimean war...and for a short period, russian dominance on north eastern anatolia (till they got all communified and left)..in 1917.

 

throughout the 20th century, under a new name, the blosheviks continued this scheme in a new form, of divide and conquer. in this light, artsax and naxichevan was given to "azerbaijan" (or south tatarstan as i like to clall it)...as well as a portion of southern georgia...kars and ararat were given to turkey, as well as the georgian parts of ardahan and artvin..(this was in the hopes that turkey would join their brothers, the azeris in a larger soviet union...at the same time, of course, the us was funding an anti-communist movement in turkey as well...)

 

in the meantime, all armenian intellectualism was supressed, by either exiling artists, writers, poets and others to siberia..or outright killing them...leaving us with this creative blackhole we live with today..

over a million armenians ended up growing up outside the caucasus (russia/kazakhstan...)...not to mention soviet attempts at russification of our nation: changing the alphabet...the huge number of russian loan words in common usage...russian signs, russian school programmes etc..

 

this of course was not only happening in armenia, but around the soviet-sphere. the reason armenians today supress this in their collective memory is because we are so poised to believe that russia is a benefactor, and that we can just pretend all the bad stuff didn't happen..while we listen to our dadiks and babiks talking about how great the brejnev STAGNATION was...."kordz kar, dun uneink, uraz eink"...ble ble ble..

 

...

anyway back to the point

 

the current situation between armenia, azerbaijan and russia in 2009 is EXACTLY the same as in 1993. russia helped azerbaijan till 1993, because it had no interest in armenia, aside from a border with turkey (which , at the time, shevernadze georgia could also secure) azerbaijan on the other hand was traditionally one of the major oil producing regions of the Union, and was thus quite a deal more important to russia..russia only "switched sides" in 1993, when it was evident that Armenia was winning. in the early 90's, experts were already talking about a new great game, this time for caspian oil resources. now that azerbaijan is agreeing to build a new pipeline through russia, which in a way is a symbol of closening ties between the lord in baku and the emperor in moscow...which, though they may have seemed to be shallow (with azerbaijan's "raprochement" towards the USA..s oil companies...) ..never actually were...

 

but ya, as previously mentionned, russia, through several lackeys here in armenia has found many other ways to keep the USSR still functionning without calling it such. some examples: in order to "settle our national debt to russia"...putin took over control of armenia's Mars micro-tech factory, bought up the hrasdan power plant, created "armrusgasprom" bought our half of the gas pipeline to iran (which was conceived as part of armenia's (and georgia's) attempt to break away from russias energy hegemony)...now owns armenia's national railway service, and both our mobile companies.

 

so, for those of us who think we gained independence in 1991, ...i'm affraid it may not be so clear..

 

and from what i see on the ground here, i honestly fear for the future. the more russia drifts into autocracy, the faster armenia follows.

 

...

anyway point is simple..

after the war in ossetia, aliyev was in baku talking about the "historic business ties between the ancient azeris and russians"...and signing another deal.

lavrov, (an armenian) after recognising the independence of the 2 georgian republics, went to baku to assure aliyev that this was not the case for artsax.

...

now that the deal has been signed for the new pipeline

medvedev issues a statement claiming that aliyevs "speech" about artsax was "correct"

 

...

anyway hopefully now youtube won't be as flooded with "armenia and russia orthodox brothers for life" videos..because medvedev and putin do not worship christ, they worship stalin, lenin and marx

 

wakeup armenians...stop with the "we need the backing of major powers" mentality