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Muslim Mirror Dec 29 2024 Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict: A new theatre in Syria By Haider Abbas Within a matter of days, after the fall of Bashar Al Asad in Syria , who was deserted by his army, there is a takeover of Hayat Al Tahrir Al Sham (HTS), a new ISIS-2 incarnate, led by Abu Muhammed Al Jolani. The first has come a visit of Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan to Syria on December 22. Russian forces, the mainstake along with Iran’s support, on which Asad regime could survive the last decade, have left. Iran’s 4000 fighters have also left Syria. The Syrian route for arms supply to Hezbollah, fighting against Israel in Lebanon, has been severed. All could happen due to Turkey President Taiyyip Erdogan, who never for a day sent his army to defend Palestinians in Gaza against Israel, which has seen more than 50,000 Gazans dead. The Arab nations also did the same. Turkey and Israel are together in their attack on Syria. Turkey wants to silence the outlawed PKK fighters and Israel has already taken over the strategic Golan Heights. The war now is to start between Turkey’s sponsored HTS and PKK, the outlawed Kurdish organization. There around 1.5 to 2 million Kurdish people in Turkey involved into making a separate nationhood i.e. Kurdistan. Kurds are significantly spread over Iran, Iraq and Syria. Turkey’s tanks and military carrier troops, fighter jets and missiles have now started to roll into Syria, to silence PKK once and for all. Erdogan who had turned a blind eye to Palestinians, was prompt into arming Azerbaijan against Armenia (2021) which was supported by Russia and Iran. The conflict had ended in a ceasefire. This is the ‘second time score’ of Turkey over Russia and Iran, and now, is all set to splurge into a new battlefield inside Syria. Israel’s ongoing killing of Gazans, on daily basis, has now paled from prime-time discussions from Muslim nations and populations and focus has shifted to ‘celebrations’ on HTS victory! Arab nations from October 7, 2023, since when Hamas had attacked Israel, have throughout maintained only ‘ill concerns’ for Palestine, while Iran had come out to support Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Ansar-ul-Lah in Yemen against Israel. What is the likely scenario for Turkey? International powers are now all set to enter into the fray. The ensuing war between Turkey and its sponsored HTS against PKK is to firstly attract sanctions from US. This is to happen all the very soon. US will never allow Turkey to expand its boundaries inside the area of Syria inhabited by Kurds. The Turkey gameplan is to cut-into-pieces of Syria. Some part of it going to HTS, some to Israel and the rest to be distributed between Alavis etc. This is now to invite Russia and Iran to back PKK. Russian foreign minister Sergie Lavrov has raked-up the issue of Syrian sovereignty over Turkey’s ambitions and together has issued a warning to Israel about destroying Syrian military facilities as not a guarantee for peace forever. No wonder, this new theatre is building on the same lines of Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict as Turkey-Israel-US had supported for the former and Russia and Iran had stuck with Armenia. Russia and Iran had then cut a sorry-figure, but what is to happen here, considering new geo-strategic realities, which primarily involve Israel expansionism over Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Jordon, Egypt in possibly a near future? In this unfolding war, interestingly, US and Russia( read with Iran) are now to side with each other to scuttle Turkey to back Kurds. US will be goaded by Israel lobbyists, at least as expected by the outgoing Joseph Biden administration, to support PKK in all of its probabilities. The first casualty to be is the Turkish Lira, as it is already forecasted to plummet to new low. The Kurds inside Turkey are also to get stirred up too. Israel lobbyists inside Europe are to see Turkey out of NATO, something which US would also seek! Donald Trump, to swear into as the next US President had earlier been responsible to bring down Lira and this time too, Trump may keep to his reputation. Turkey, an important player in the region, if goes down, will influence new geo-political situations. The most important benefactor to be, no marks for guessing, will be Israel. It is also a fact, to remember, that the deposed Bashar Al Asad had been in support of Kurds to fight Turkey supported ISIS aka HTS. It hadn’t been late, as in June last, PKK had brought down Turkish drone, informed Medyanews 1 which could never have happened until there was a US technology behind. The brunt of isolation is to be the burden of Turkey alone. Iran and Russia have turned their eyes on Houthis of Yemen engaged with Israel. Yemen in the one last year has targeted ships going towards Israel. Many European ships including Turkish ships have been attacked in the Red Sea. Yemen is reported to have targeted Israel prime most David Ben Gurion airport in its capital Tel Aviv on December 27, as Israel had attached Yemen capital Sanaa airport a day before. The Yemen retaliation has come within 14 hours. Millions of Israeli’s have gone inside shelter homes. The other war zone getting ‘more hot’ is Russia engaged in Ukraine. Ukraine is supported by NATO, European Union and US. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is reported to have rejected Trump’s peace-plan but right now Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the power-center in the Middle East, Crown Prince Muhammed bin Salman (MbS) is using his ‘special-friendship’ with Trump to organize a meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. KSA has won the bid to organize the 2034 soccer world-cup. Will this meeting happen? What’ll be its outcome as Russia has also put its most lethal Oreshnik missile not only on Ukraine but on NATO nations too. Russia has also revised its nuclear doctrine. Perhaps, world has never been that close to a nuclear war. What change is to come after January 20, 2025, the inauguration-day when Trump takes oath, is all yet to unfold. *** The writer is a former UP State Information Commissioner and writes on international issues. https://muslimmirror.com/azerbaijan-armenia-conflict-a-new-theatre-in-syria/

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