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#1 Yervant1


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Posted 18 December 2015 - 10:18 AM


December 18 2015

Says political analyst Hayk Martirosyan The tension on the contact
line of Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijani armed forces maintains. The
defense minister of Armenia confirmed recently at the parliament that
this tension has reached its peak, which, according to Seyran Ohanyan,
is the logical continuation of the policy led by Azerbaijan and leads
to instability. The growth of tension, according to Hayk Martirosyan,
is inevitable in the event of having neighbors like Turkey and
Azerbaijan. The national and state ideology of Azerbaijani-Turkish
tandem has not been changed, argues the doctor of political sciences.

Perhaps one change and been taken place in the life of Azerbaijan's
elder brother over the last 100 years: it seeks to substitute the
theory of Turkish Caliphate and empire with the theory of superpower
influence by making efforts to restore the status of the superpower
lost 100 years ago, on the way to destabilize almost all the
neighboring countries.

Armenia, according to the political analyst, is the wedge that hampers
the fulfillment of the Turkish national dreams. "The once Young Turks
plan of a "Great Turkey" stretching from Bosporus to the Altay still
exists and is more alive and sound than, for example, 50 years ago.

And in terms of ideology, compared to the day before the Armenian
Genocide, today, nothing has been changed in the Turkish-Azerbaijani
mentality. Today, the region is in fire, an unprecedented fire,
and in this conditions that, in fact, it is the third world war in
a new appearance, Armenia cannot remain indifferent and irrespective
of its will, not to be involved in the military situation," said the
political analyst, adding that in the event of sharp escalation of
Russian-Turkey relations, Turkey and Azerbaijan will try to achieve
the maximum dividend-share by also doing harm to Russia's closest
allies. And the most convenient targets, in this case, are the two
Armenian states.

Azerbaijan is trying its best to keep the conflict active, and as
predicted by the political analyst, this country will go to any
actions if it sees the opportunity to achieve success at the moment.

Currently, according to him, the main obstacle for unleashing
large-scale military operations is Russia, Armenia's closest ally.

Azerbaijan's alternative now is strongly pinching Armenia because to
go for a large-scale war at this moment will mean an overly aggressive
move against Russia, which, according to Martirosyan, would be one of
the rare cases that Russia will simply go to a straight confrontation
with Azerbaijan. In this country's political and military ideology,
according to the political analyst, the constant maintenance of tension
is fixed by "iron letters", and every Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting is an
opportunity for resorting to a blackmail handwriting and trying to
morally put pressure on the Armenian sides.

"Moral pressure is one of the most powerful weapons of the war, in
other words, literally, an act of terrorism is made against Armenia
at the state level. Generally, the logic of terrorism is known:
instilling fear among people and demoralization, which are mandatory
conditions preceding the military victory," analyzes the doctor of
political sciences, adding that Russia having a very bitter experience
recently after the warm flirtations, however, getting a treacherous
attack from Turkey, will not endanger Armenia. Reporting the fact that
Azerbaijan has started using tanks, mortars and heavy weapons, the
political analyst thinks that with regard to the large-scale actions,
in a short-term, at least for the next few months, Azerbaijan will
show itself more restrained.

But according to him, dangers from the Turkish-Azerbaijani forces
are always expected, including the point that Turkey will not even
hesitate to direct, for example, the Islamists and nationalists that
make an enormous presence in its territory to Armenia's borders. They
have penetrated to Iraq, a territory of a sovereign state, arming and
financing Turkmen, they have made them their agents in the territory
of Syria, - says Martirosyan and asks, - What prevents them to target
on Armenia too. And regardless of the circumstance of what is the cause
of the recent tension on the border, by the Russian-Turkish crisis, or,
for example, by the situation going on in the Middle East, Martirosyan
is sure that the hostility towards Armenia is nowadays more pronounced
and they will not hesitate to strike us at the first possible chance.

We need to strengthen the state from inside and make the military
cooperation active not only with Russia but also with the United
States, and cooperate in a systemized way with the two key poles
playing in the region, said Martirosyan in confidence. He explains
that this simultaneous cooperation is possible and, in this case,
beneficial for all sides because in the total the goal is one - the
fight against extremist Salafism. The debates about the Islamic State
are underway, and Jabhat al-Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham and many other armed
Salafist, Wahhabi organizations are not mentioned that are dangerous
for everyone, says the Doctor of political sciences, adding that
Armenian cannot stay in the sheath forever, we cannot ensure our
security by behaving us inert. "It is the greatest illusion, you
cannot be in a burning building, in the flames of the fire and as
long as the tongues of the fire have not reached you, you can feel
secure that your apartment will not be in fire. The fire will get you
for sure," he says, arguing that our armed forces also need reforms
today, we need to reform the system of military service and make the
serving in the army 3 years, also recruiting women to the army, such
as in the United States, Israel and other countries in the world. The
political analyst also claims that it is necessary to establish a
foreign legion and allow the foreigners also to serve in our army
like the French "Foreign legion" in order to strengthen our army and
add human capital under this low birth rate and huge emigration.

T. MURADYAN "Aravot" daily

Read more at: http://en.aravot.am/2015/12/18/173490/


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