59 replies to this topic

[Sasun]

Looks like Sahakashvili is trying to get Armenian votes. Will he really lower the tariffs?

MIKHAIL SAHAKASHVILI: ARMENIA – GEORGIA'S MOST IMPORTANT STRATEGIC PARTNER
01.12.2003

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Ties with Armenia are of the utmost importance for Georgia, because Armenia is Georgia's most important strategic partner, presidential contender and leader of the "United National Movement" Mikhail Sahakashvili stated in his interview to the Armenian Public Television. In his words, the new Georgian leadership wishes the Armenian Diaspora, which has activated its links with Armenia recently, to take active part in the infrastructural investment projects carried out in the region. M. Sahakashvili also stated that Armenia should maximally benefit from Georgia's transit geo-position by transporting Armenian leads through its territory. In this regard he noted that after the presidential election the new Georgian government will lower the transit tariffs for the railway trucking industry.

[Sasun]

Perhaps on top of getting votes (which he will have without major difficulty) Sahakashvili's goal is also trying to prevent Armenia from being utilized by Russia against his likely presidency. Here is a quote from Armenia Liberty radio: http://www.armeniali...D5A7357DD01.ASP

Abashidze as well as the Abkhaz and South Ossetian leaders met in Moscow last week for joint consultations initiated by the Kremlin. The move fueled speculation that the Russians are playing the ethnic card to hold the new Georgian leadership in check. Some Yerevan commentators believe that they also need Armenia’s backing for the success of the endeavor.

In a separate development, the man tipped to win the January 4 Georgian presidential election has pledged to seek closer ties with Armenia and facilitate its communication with the rest of the world. In an interview with the state-run Armenian Public Television broadcast on Sunday, Mikhail Saakashvili accused Shevardnadze of paying little attention to the “vital” Georgian-Armenian relationship.

“Armenia is Georgia's key strategic partner and neighbor,” Saakashvili said. “A stable and prosperous Armenia would be a guarantor of Georgia's success and prosperity.”

The 35-year-old popular lawyer, who was instrumental in the success of the “velvet revolution” in Tbilisi, acknowledged that transit fees levied by Georgia from Armenian cargos are disproportionately high and promised to cut them considerably once in office. He blasted Shevardnadze for tolerating corrupt customs officials who routinely extort kickbacks from Armenian businessmen and therefore “don’t give a damn about Georgia’s state interests.”

More than 90 percent of landlocked Armenia’s external trade is carried out via Georgia.

Talk about a politician's double talk and hypocrisy

[Khazar]

Looks like things are coming to a head. Todays' gazeta.ru (for those of you that read Russian) http://www.gazeta.ru...siaostavi.shtml

it was titled, 'Armenians keeping Russians in Georgia". Burdjanadze has renewed the issue of kicking out the Russians from their two remaining military bases: Batumi and Alkhakalaki. In Batumi, the pro-Russian Adjars don't want to see them go, and in Alkhakalaki, the Armenians don't want to see them go. And the Russians don't want to see them go!!!

I can see serious tension brewing as Tbilisi gets pissed off about this. I don't know how many Armenians live in Georgia, but I know it is a pretty significant number. This may begin to cause inter-ethnic problems...

[Shahumyan]

i think 12% of Georgian population is of ARmenian ethnicity.

this shows the problems of having a leader who works for the bourgeoise and uses ethnicity as a tool to strengthen their power, as opposed to a leader whose priority first and formost is the people

[alpha]

An interesting article, though contains points that I strongly disagree with.

Executive Intelligence Review (EIR), United States
Dec 3 2003

Georgia: Soros, Stalin, And a Gallon of Wine
by Roman Bessonov

On Nov. 21, two correspondents of the Russian newspaper Kommersant
Daily travelled from Gori, Georgia, the birthplace of Iosif Stalin,
to the Georgian capital of Tbilisi - accompanying a column of
opposition activists headed by Michael Saakashvili, an ambitious
young man with an American education and economic views considered by
Georgian businessmen to be "complete nonsense." After a rally before
the huge statue of Stalin, the marchers set out under a Crusaders'
banner with five white crosses on a field of red. A 40-liter cask of
wine helped them along. By the time the buses were greeted by
thousands at Rustaveli Prospect in central Tbilisi, Saakashvili had
decided to introduce prohibition for a 24-hour period.

Next day, the square in front of the Parliament in Rustaveli Prospect
was flooded with a huge crowd of enthusiastic supporters of
Saakashvili, Nino Burjanadze, and Zurab Zhvania - three former top
activists of President Eduard Shevardnadze's Citizens' Union of
Georgia, now assembling to overthrow him. Shevardnadze was scheduled
to open the first session of a new Parliament, elected on Nov. 2. The
three opposition leaders, however, refused to take part, insisting
that the election returns had been falsified. They had two arguments
in support of this position: first, that the official results
conflicted with exit polls; secondly, the U.S. State Department had
just declared that the election returns had been falsified.

In fact, the official returns were not unfavorable to Shevardnadze's
young opponents. Saakashvili's National Movement won 18%, the
Burjanadze-Democrats bloc 9%, and the New Rightists over 7% of the
vote. Shalva Natelashvili's Labor Party, also regarded as a part of
the opposition for its harsh criticism of Shevardnadze's economic and
social policy (but not working with Saakashvili, et al.), was
credited with 12%. In the new Parliament, the President's opponents
could have prepared an orderly transition to a new state leadership,
scheduled to take place with Presidential elections in 2005.
Shevardnadze, now 75, had already promised Georgians and the world
community that his current term was his last.

The election results had been forecast with great precision in an
analytical article in Moscow's Nezavisimaya Gazeta in August. Its
authors correctly noted the increased popularity not only of
Saakashvili's party, but also of the Revival Party of Aslan
Abashidze, president of the Autonomous Republic of Ajaria in
Georgia's West.

Meanwhile, the President's Citizens' Union, now without its former
general secretary Zurab Zhvania (who had joined Mrs. Burjanadze in
her brand new party project), had merged with several
well-established parties - Irina Sarishvili-Chanturia's National
Democratic Union, and Vakhtang Rcheulishvili's Socialist Party - into
the Union for New Georgia. On the eve of the elections, the
President's bloc was gaining additional support from ethnic
minorities, who fear Saakashvili's nationalist banners. And even the
remains of Zviad Gamsakhurdia's movement expressed support for
Shevardnadze, though the latter was first made President in the wake
of Gamsakhurdia's overthrow in 1991. Meanwhile, the Revival Party had
almost unanimous support in Ajaria's main city, Batumi, as well as
growing influence in Tbilisi and in the Armenian-populated district
of Javakheti.

But Saakashvili had proclaimed, months before, that he was organizing
a "velvet revolution" to remove Shevardnadze. And the exit polls said
the elections were a fakery. These exit polls were conducted not by
the Georgians, nor by official observers from the United States,
Russia, or the EU. They were provided by a Washington-based polling
company, Global Strategy Group, which works for the U.S. Democratic
National Committee and boasts of having run Al Gore's campaign in
2000.

One more message, which activated the street campaign of
Shevardnadze's opponents, was a report from The Times of London,
published by Georgian media the day before the expected opening of
Parliament. Claiming that Shevardnadze planned to emigrate, the
report came with a photo of a luxurious villa, allegedly purchased
for Shevardnadze in Germany.

It may have been true that Germany was prepared to provide political
asylum for Shevardnadze. It is also true that the - now former - elected
President of Georgia had very close relations with the German
establishment, since, as Soviet Foreign Minister, he had played a
crucial role in German reunification in 1989-1990. It was also true
that this strong affinity of Shevardnadze towards Germany was a
matter of permanent dissatisfaction for those in the Anglo-American
oligarchy, who preferred their own, completely controlled and
predictable stooge, instead of him. Such interests were out to
undermine any productive political economic relations between Georgia
and either Germany or Russia, using traditional carrot-and-stick
methods. The carrots were mostly virtual, expressed in quite
unrealistic, but heavily advertised investment projects, which
especially irritated the Russian side, as well as neighboring
Armenia. Sticks would come down on Shevardnadze's head, any time he
even attempted to seek - never mind implement - an alternative to
Anglo-American geopolitics in the region.

Western mass media compared Shevardnadze with King Lear. On the day
of the well-prepared revolt, he found himself almost completely
isolated. By the time Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov arrived in
Tbilisi on the evening of Nov. 22, Shevardnadze had already lost
access even to national television.

The Old Fox and the Young Tomcats
Eduard Shevardnadze's relations with Moscow had been undermined in
1997 by a large and very attractive carrot from Britain. This was the
scenario of a Caucasus Common Market, uniting Georgia, Azerbaijan,
Russia's breakaway Republic of Chechnya, and, potentially, the whole
Caucasus. The headquarters of the project was to be in Tbilisi,
involving Shevardnadze's nephew and then-President of Azerbaijan
Haidar Aliyev's son. Its promoters were Lord Alistair McAlpine and a
Polish adventurer named Macej Jachimczyk, who converted to Islam in
London and took the name "Mansur." At the center of the project stood
the Chechen gangster, former felon Hojakhmed Nukhayev, who did not
speak English but controlled Russia's Post of Novorossiysk.

The Common Market scheme collapsed after a group of British engineers
was decapitated in Chechnya, but Moscow would not forget this
flirtation by Shevardnadze's circles with Chechen rebel leader
Maskhadov, and reminded Shevardnadze about it immediately after the
Sept. 11, 2001 catastrophe in New York and Washington. President
Vladimir Putin raised the issue of Georgia's Pankisi Gorge as a
cradle of Chechen gangsters, whose links with Afghan narcotics- and
arms-trade networks were being highlighted in international mass
media at that time.

The chill in Russian-Georgian relations affected ordinary people, as
well as top officials. A visa regime for travel between the two
countries, introduced by the Russian side, hurt the popularity of
both Shevardnadze and Putin within Georgia. Further feeding
Georgians' disappointment with Russia was the haughty tone of the
Moscow liberal mass media, which bullied, offended, and ridiculed not
only Shevardnadze, but Georgia as a nation. Stinkbombs blasted by
Izvestia, Moskovsky Komsomolets, and other Moscow papers - owned by
Russia's foreign-tied nouveaux riches - echoed in the hearts of
Georgians as painfully as did bombs dropped from Russian aircraft on
Pankisi Gorge. No wonder Georgians felt offended, rather than
inspired, when liberal wunderkind Anatoli Chubais, CEO of Russia's
United Energy Systems, bought control over the Tbilisi electric power
utility, Telasi. (The seller was the U.S.-based AES Corporation,
specialists in electricity privatization, which had bought and
exploited the Tbilisi power grid, and now wanted out.) Chubais
declared himself a "liberal imperialist."

Georgians were no happier about the "secret protocols" signed earlier
this year between Shevardnadze and CEO Alexei Miller of the Russian
natural gas giant Gazprom. Secrecy arouses not inspiration, but
suspicion. Moscow's "liberal imperialists," regarded by ordinary
Russians as merciless and immoral privatizers, were perceived in
Georgia as invaders, not as friends in need. Russia's offer to supply
natural gas and electricity was seen as a Trojan Horse, and no
wonder! In his comments on the purchase of Telasi, Chubais focussed
more on the prospects for Russian energy sales to Turkey, than on
bringing light and heat into homes in Georgia.

The Gazprom projects that Miller and Shevardnadze discussed off the
record were economically very promising indeed. Shevardnadze was
losing faith in U.S. promises to build a gas pipeline from Baku,
Azerbaijan, to Turkey's Erzerum, across Georgia. Experience told him
Georgia might freeze before this project were completed. Miller
promoted two more realistic projects, also undoubtedly much cheaper.
The Russian gas monopoly proposed to refurbish two existing gas
pipelines - one connecting Vladikavkaz (the capital of North Ossetia,
in Russia) with Tbilisi and Yerevan, Armenia, and another connecting
the Blue Stream (Russia to Turkey across the Black Sea floor) with
Tbilisi and Batumi. The latter project could be seen as a bridge
between Georgia's central cities and Ajaria, which would benefit not
only personal relations between Shevardnadze and Abashidze, but the
integrity of Georgia.

The Russian side, as often before, overlooked the influence of the
mass media on the population. The Rustavi-2 TV channel - financed by
George Soros' Open Society Georgia Foundation as an "independent"
media source - warmed Georgian homes more efficiently than the dull,
greasy moustache of Alexei Miller or the freckled nose of a newly
converted imperialist Chubais, whose name in Tbilisi, as in Moscow or
Vladivostok, is usually given to tomcats with a talent for stealing
sausages.

Chubais and Miller, bold as they might be, realized they were trying
to steal a juicy sausage from very powerful international interests.
Months before, Gazprom had been forced to reduce prices of Blue
Stream gas exports to Turkey - not only because of U.S. pressure on
Turkey, but also due to Turkey's own economic problems, which made
the original agreement with Gazprom unsustainable. If the talks were
public, the Turkish side could become angry and close off Blue Stream
altogether.

But, as the Russian saying goes, you can't hide an awl in a sack. It
didn't take surveillance satellites to see that the Vladikavkaz
pipeline was under reconstruction. Secrecy played into the hands of
the new, Western-trained generation of Georgian politicians, who used
these - economically reasonable - Russian gas and electricity
infrastructure development proposals, as yet another reason for
dumping Shevardnadze - to whom they actually owed a great deal of their
careers. Thus the Russian overtures, discredited by Miller's whispers
and Chubais' chatter, turned into a real Trojan horse for
Shevardnadze. "Georgia should not sell its independence for
electricity" - these words of Speaker of the Parliament Nino Burjanadze
became the motto of a new wave of anti-Russian sentiment,
transforming the political scene of Georgia.

Two years ago, any Georgian official, told that Michael Saakashvili
was a realistic Presidential candidate, would have laughed in your
face: Who? This young, haughty demagogue with a wild mixture of ideas
in his overheated brain? Today, Saakashvili is a not only a political
star in the Tbilisi sky, but a person whose words and actions move
masses, and directly affect the political mood throughout most of
Georgia. Both Moscow influentials and their counterparts in Tbilisi
government offices overlooked the steady rise of the new star, which
started not in Summer 2003, but much earlier.

The Ghost of the Fifth Rome
On Sept. 18, 2001, Justice Minister Michael Saakashvili arrived at
the Parliament of Georgia with a pack of photos, depicting luxurious
mansions owned by top police officials. Meanwhile, mass media
reported that his flat was visited by "unidentified persons," who
tried to steal some documentation. This added heat to the media
scandal, portraying the ambitious minister as a target of organized
crime and corruption, and initiating his ascent to the exceptional
popularity he enjoys today.

The engineers of his career had studied the psychology and moods of
the Georgians - and not only Georgians. In a similar way,
"anti-corruption careers" were made in other transitional or Third
World countries, from Mexico to the Philippines. The Georgian brew
was cooked to a recipe tested many times before, especially where
luxury and misery live side by side, and the physical economy is
ruined. The country Shevardnadze took charge of in 1992 was actually
in worse shape than it is today; but progress has been very slow, due
to his trust in the West. Joining the World Trade Organization (WTO)
with a ruined economy, Georgia, like Moldova and Kyrgyzstan, expected
a huge flow of investments. Instead, money fled the country.
Saakashvili and his ilk, however, avoid the real background of the
economic problems, instead blaming particular figures in the
landscape. Economists from the New Rightist Party, later his ally
against Shevardnadze, admitted that Saakashvili's economic views are
a wild mix of unrealistic assessments.

Saakashvili resigned as Justice Minister, with complaints that the
state leadership (to which he owed his party and government career),
was impeding implementation of his demagogic National Anti-Corruption
Plan. This project had received ample attention from megaspeculator
George Soros, who promised assistance in the effort to cleanse the
Georgian establishment. Soros appreciated the earlier reform of the
law enforcement bodies, whereby the Penitentiary Authority was
transferred from the Internal Affairs Ministry to the Ministry of
Justice. As Saakashvili's partner, Soros was going to become a
benefactor of Georgian jails, to improve the conditions there. In
Georgia's destroyed economy - especially after its WTO entry - the
penitentiary industry, with George Soros' help, would become an
island of prosperity.

But that was not enough for the megaspeculator: The next step was
supposed to be a sound whipping of the Georgian police, replacing its
top cadres with "decent persons" selected by him and Saakashvili.
Though the effort ostensibly failed, the discredited Internal Affairs
Minister Kakha Targamadze was forced out, replaced by Koba
Narchemashvili. The website of Soros' Open Society Georgia Foundation
was not indifferent to this change of figures. Earlier, as head of
the Customs Authority, Narchemashvili had been blamed by Tax Minister
Michael Machavariani for "not opposing crime." But Soros' site
explained that Machavariani, in attacking Narchemashvili, was
motivated purely by personal ambition, intending to introduce his own
crony to the lucrative customs post! In addition, the site warned
that the new Internal Affairs Minister would have difficulty fighting
crime, because of the resistance of Targamadze's old staff.

This excessive sympathy of Soros towards Narchemashvili may explain
the unexpectedly easy surrender of the police to the crowd under the
Crusaders' banners, on Nov. 21. For the whole period from September
2001 till November 2003, Saakashvili was under ardent tutelage from
George Soros. The latter's Open Society Georgia Foundation co-founded
the Liberty Institute of Georgia, and launched a "youth assistance
program." Its young disciples were promptly organized into a movement
entitled Kmara! (Enough!), which took lessons in organizing protest
actions from professionals in former Yugoslavia and Ukraine.

The broad-shouldered young guys in leather jackets, who mounted the
tribune of the Parliament on Saturday, Nov. 22, smashing tables and
chairs, belonged to Kmara! As the BBC's correspondent said, these
persons "hissed out" the elected President from the Parliament
building. The social-populist phraseology of Saakashvili and the
choice of Gori as launch-place for the decisive move into Tbilisi,
represent nothing new in this sort of "regime change" operation.
Anywhere George Soros appeared in the post-Soviet area, he would
mimic the character of the local protest mood. In Lviv, Ukraine, his
magazine Derzhavnist (Statehood) introduced the idea of "Ukraine as
the Fourth Rome," and published an article saying that the execution
of Jews in Babiy Yar, near Kiev, in 1941, was actually an execution
of Ukrainian patriots by Jewish commissars. The local Jewish
community was shocked, as were, no doubt, survivors of Stalin's
prisons in Georgia, but such details have never bothered Soros, for
whom the end seemed to justify any means. After all, Stalin's image
might serve as a suitable symbol of a "Fifth Rome."

It was St. George's day on Sunday, Nov. 23, when Shevardnadze
resigned. George Soros' day was celebrated with gallons of wine in
the central squares of Tbilisi.

Backing the Georgian Opposition
George Soros may have found his disciple, Saakashvili, at the offices
of Patterson, Belknap, Webb, and Tyler LLC in Tbilisi, where the
young lawyer started his career after coming home in 1992 from study
at Columbia University. A professor there, R. Scott Horton, combines
the careers of human rights defender, and privatization consultant in
the former U.S.S.R. In the 1980s, he was the lawyer for aging
Academician Andrei Sakharov and his wife, Yelena Bonner. Today,
Horton represents the Ukrainian intelligence Major Mykola
Melnychenko, whose peddling of audiotapes of President Leonid
Kuchma's private conversation launched a political crisis in Ukraine
in 2001.

At a 1998 Columbia University conference on Caspian oil reserves
(co-sponsored by Exxon), this friend of dissidents presented a report
astronomically remote from human rights - on the juridical implications
of the division of the Caspian Sea. By that time, Patterson, Belknap,
Webb, and Tyler had been in Kazakstan for ten years, and in Moscow
for five. In Russia, the firm is a partner of Alpha Group's Tyumen
Oil Co. (TNK), recently merged with British Petroleum, and the
largest Russian telecommunications company, Svyazinvest,
co-privatized by George Soros, Boris Jordan, and Vladimir Potanin in
1997.

Another "permanent nomenklatura" figure, now operating for the
Carlyle Group (defense contractors), is ex-Secretary of State James
Baker III. He turned up in Tbilisi in August, to present urgent
amendments to the Election Code, which became known in Georgia as
"the Baker Plan." Implementation of the demands foundered in a brawl
among opposition forces, seeking seats on the Electoral Commission.
James Baker III arrived not merely to advise. He expressed his
opinion that the next leader of Georgia should be Nino Burjanadze,
Speaker of the Parliament.

Shortly before his arrival, PA Consulting, the American management
company for Georgia's United [Electricity] Distribution Authority,
disconnected 23 districts for non-payment of debts. And at the same
time, a International Monetary Fund mission was pressuring Georgia's
government to impose new austerity measures. Though the economy has
been controlled by criminal clans for years, the President alone was
blamed for the increasing economic problems.

One can imagine President Shevardnadze faced with such massive
sabotage and permanently bullied by the inviolable "human rights"
mouthpiece, Rustavi-2; he appeared to be close to real depression.
But this was what was expected of him: Should he have been reluctant
to resign, a "grateful" Burjanadze reserved for herself the option of
declaring him incompetent. If Georgia's King Lear had not resigned on
St. George Soros' Day, he might have faced an Anglo-American mental
examination.

Georgia's 'Lady Thatcher'
The scandal around the Russian energy proposals was a real political
gift to Mrs. Burjanadze, whose reputation in Tbilisi was far from
perfect. A series of spicy articles had followed the 2002 appointment
of her husband, Badri Bitsadze, to the post of Deputy General
Prosecutor. (A day before the revolt, he resigned, complaining of
"pressure" from the already powerless Shevardnadze.)

"The Landlady of a Big House," as Tbilisi papers called her, had
figured in press accounts of a scandal around the Tbilisi office of
Maskhadov's unrecognized Chechen government. This office was
headquartered in the building on Gulua Street, where the company of
Mrs. Burjanadze's father, Anzori, a former Communist Party official
and big grain trader, was also located. The head of the Chechen
office, Hizri Aldamov, claimed that his mission in Georgia was
unofficial, but Russian sources listed him among the ambassadors of
the independent Ichkeria (Chechnya), most of whom had criminal
backgrounds. Aldamov had twice been in jail for economic wrongdoing.
When Ichkeria's office was caught smuggling pharmaceuticals from
Turkey, Aldamov threatened to release compromising information on
Georgia's customs agency - and was immediately forgiven. His son,
caught in Pankisi with drugs, was also safely released. He continued
issuing more than eccentric statements; Radio Liberty quoted him
naming Russia's Vladimir Putin as global terrorist No.1, and Osama
bin Laden as an agent of the Russian special services.

When in Summer 2002, Hizri Aldamov was forced to leave his office in
Gulua Street (so as not to compromise Mrs. Burjanadze's family), he
declared that he really had been working for Maskhadov - contradicting
Maskhadov himself, as well as Georgia's Foreign Security Chief
Avtandil Ioseliani. When he participated in a later international
human rights event in Tbilisi, however, Aldamov was identified by a
Chechen website as "the general representative of Ichkeria in
Georgia."

Mrs. Burjanadze's family connections with Chechen separatists well
correspond with her international career. The case of Chechnya, as
well as other Caucasus insurgencies, and many other "indigenist"
movements across the globe, was inherited from Lord Palmerston's
19th-Century Foreign Office, by today's top figures in "human rights"
and "anti-corruption" circles of the British oligarchy. It is quite
natural that Nino Burjanadze's political ideal is Margaret Thatcher.
In 1995-98 - the heyday of the Caucasus Common Market project - Mrs.
Burjanadze chaired Georgia's Permanent Parliamentary Delegation in
Great Britain.

Burjanadze's mission in Britain was obviously the starting point for
her career in European institutions. In 1998, she was selected as a
Rapporteur of the General Committee on Democracy, Human Rights, and
Humanitarian Issues of Organization for Security and Cooperation in
Europe's Parliamentary Assembly, and two years later became a vice
president of OSCE's PA. This status played a decisive role in her
election as the Speaker of Georgia's Parliament. Immediately
thereafter, she also became an officer of the Black Sea Community of
Economic Cooperation.

During the parliamentary elections, several candidates protested that
Burjanadze was using her Speaker's staff and facilities for her
personal needs. And she was a candidate, the leader of an election
bloc named after herself, at the same time as representing an
international institution that supervised the elections. Such a
combination of roles and functions fits the classic definition of
corruption, as does Saakashvili's simultaneous employment in the
Parliament and a U.S. law firm internationally known as a lobbyist
for powerful transnational corporations.

Burjanadze was a professor of law in the Tbilisi University. Before
becoming the Speaker, she headed the Law Committee of Parliament. In
that capacity, she participated in IREX's international conference
"Black Sea Region: Priorities and Prospectives for the XXI Century."
Among the other speakers, we find a familiar name: R. Scott Horton,
professor of Columbia University, partner of Patterson, Belknap,
Webb, and Tyler, president of International Human Rights Fund,
director of the Sakharov Fund, etc., etc.

The Stolen Alternative
Since the major Russian TV channels, obediently bowing to the
generally accepted version of the events in Tbilisi, describe them as
a "velvet revolution" - concealing the tragic truth from Russians on
the eve of their own Dec. 7 parliamentary elections - the only source
of detailed information from Georgia for the Russian audience is
Aslan Abashidze's Ajara TV. This channel was disconnected from
Tbilisi on the day of the revolt, along with the state TV company,
giving Soros' Rustavi-2 a monopoly. For months before, Rustavi-2 had
been slandering the leader of Ajaria, describing the aged Aslan, a
Georgian nobleman, as an old Communist apparatchik and potential
dictator - though Abashidze never danced around the statue of Stalin,
and his highly professional TV company broadcast not only the best
classic Soviet movies, but also the masterpieces of European and
American cinema art.

Abashidze's mass media relied upon the feelings and tastes of a
thinking intellectual and an industrious peasant, not just following
their expectations, but trying to upgrade their education. For
several years, it had been a source of hope for a decent life, in
which human happiness was associated with productive labor. It had
been a very strong alternative to Rustavi-2, which played on the
impulsive instincts of poorly educated youth to revolt against
alleged "corruption."

After years of personal conflict, Abashidze found a common language
with Shevardnadze, when the President of Georgia, realizing the
menace to his own career and to the Georgian nation,
tried - unsuccessfully - to crack down on Rustavi-2 TV. Abashidze's
Agordzineba (Revival) Party was the only political force that came
out into the streets of Tbilisi to protect the President, and the
city's industries, from Saakashvili's crowds. Abashidze's own TV
channel, Ajara TV, strongly opposed the National Movement, labelling
it as "fascist."

Within Ajaria, Abashidze is the undisputed authority. The 93% vote
for the Revival Party, questioned by "independent" mass media, is
regarded by informed Russian observers as probably genuine. Ajaria
has a functioning physical economy and relatively acceptable standard
of living - lower than in Moscow, but higher than anywhere else in the
Caucasus.

In 1992, Abashidze did not allow Gamsakhurdia's paramilitary squads
to enter Batumi, and established his own army. However, he did not
separate himself from Georgia like the leadership of Abkhazia (where
the central authorities have next to no power), though Ajaria's port
facility, fruit plantations, and vast trade operations with Turkey
gave him the perfect opportunity to do so. Instead, he has tried to
influence the rest of Georgia with the example of his economic
success, probably hoping to inherit power on a national level,
through a legitimate election. Abashidze's efforts to establish his
party with organizations in all the districts of Georgia, were
evidence of that.

Through the Mayor of Batumi, an ethnic Abkhaz, and a number of his
military aides, Abashidze had established his own relations with
influentials in breakaway Abkhazia. It was no surprise that after he
and Shevardnadze shook hands in Summer 2002, Abashidze acquired
special responsibility for Georgian-Abkhaz diplomacy.

While Aslan Abashidze, step by step, was developing a scenario for
the reunification of Georgia, Saakashvili, and the TV channel created
for him by George Soros, were threatening Abkhazia with a new war,
simultaneously slamming Abashidze as a potential "dictator." His
behavior reminded Abashidze of the late Zviad Gamsakhurdia, who
eliminated Abkhazia's autonomy, triggering a separatist war eagerly
exploited by organized crime, with its traditional interest in having
quasi-independence for the area and complete control over the Sukhumi
port.

As soon as the opposition declared its victory, forcing Shevardnadze
to resign, Abkhazia and South Ossetia confirmed their independent
status, while Abashidze, as he had warned in advance, closed the
borders of Ajaria to Georgian forces.

The effect of Soros' activity is always the same. As we well know
from the experience of Eastern Europe, anywhere his foundation was
rooted, anti-industrial "indigenist" movements raised their heads,
including the movement for separation of Transylvania from Romania.
Separatism of this kind is habitually tied up with a decay of the
real economy, to be replaced with a post-industrial "smuggling
economy," to the profit of the international drug trade. No wonder
Abashidze's economic success is something ideologically unacceptable
for George Soros. And it will be no shock, if the banners with
Crusader crosses will soon be seen along the road to Batumi - this time
with weapons.

Guns, Drugs, and Flowers
"It is not a velvet revolution," Abashidze said in his Nov. 24
interview, broadcast by Ajara TV. "Velvet revolutionaries don't turn
upside down party offices, as these guys from Kmara! did with the
Revival Party office in the very heart of Tbilisi, in the famous
Lagidze building. We hardly saved our co-chairman from death on
Saturday." Revival's co-chairman, Jemal Goghitidze, was not
accidentally most hated by the Kmara! guys. He had co-chaired the
press conference providing the evidence that Rustavi-2 and Kmara!
were directly financed by George Soros. Days later, Kakha Lomaya,
head of the Open Society in Tbilisi, had to confirm that the Kmara!
project "was coordinated in New York."

One more speaker at that press conference, Giya Topadze, head of the
Industry Will Save Georgia party, also became a target of
Saakashvili's fanatics. In a fit of "velvet revolutionary rage," they
rampaged through Tbilisi, smashing bottles of beer and lemonade
produced by Topadze's company. Woe to those who untimely mention the
name of Saint George!

This irrational rage, intentionally fed during months of preparations
for the coup, requires a target. In order to keep the crowd around
him during the Presidential campaign, Saakashvili will have to invent
one image of evil after another. According to Ajara's last reports,
"velvet revolutionaries" are already taking aim at local mayors, who
did not take the side of the National Movement on their way from Gori
to Tbilisi, and at the director of Tbilisi University.

As was easy to foresee, the ascent of a crowd waving nationalist
banners, dating back to olden times, more troublesome than glorious,
is more likely to destroy the integrity of Georgia than to reunify
the shattered country. Abashidze's closing of the borders of Ajaria
paralyzed Georgian-Turkish trade operations. Simultaneously, the
leaderships of Abkhazia and South Ossetia enforced their border
regimes.

In Javakheti, the Armenian-populated province, Saakashvili's ascent
is also viewed with anxiety and disgust. Javakheti's Armenian
community has close ties with Yerevan, which has found itself between
two potentially hostile regimes, and Iran, which is an official
target of the United States - of George Bush and George Soros, John
McCain and Joe Lieberman. McCain, one more "specialist" in human
rights and Kazak oil (as well as Turkmenian natural gas), visited
Tbilisi a month and a half before the coup.

The remaining Russian military facilities are mainly based in
Javakheti, and provide jobs for a significant part of the population.
The prospect of using this territory as a stronghold for "containing"
and eventually attacking Iran, hardly inspires the population, but it
warms the already overheated fantasy of U.S. neo-conservative and
anti-Islamic lunatics of all types. The same geopolitics suggests the
complete isolation of Armenia from any kind of support from Russia.
This isolation, in its turn, will be used for pushing the
long-discussed exchange of territories between Armenia and
Azerbaijan, designed to eliminate Armenia's border with Iran.

Terra Incognita
Regarding the declared plans for a natural gas route from Baku to
Turkey, the next likely target of the authors of the Georgian coup
d'état may be Turkmenistan, the major source of gas in the Caspian
basin. President Niyazov recently survived an assassination attempt.
One more obvious target is Ukraine's President Leonid Kuchma. Ex-KGB
dissident Melnychenko, like a gun in the first act of a Chekhov play,
is hanging on the wall till a suitable moment.

A global empire is most dangerous in the period of agony. For its
real masters in the Anglo-American permanent nomenklatura, it is
desperately important to keep the American minds under control. The
coup d'état in Tbilisi will be presented there as a new victory of
democracy. The real Tbilisi may starve, but the virtual Tbilisi is
going to be presented as one more model democratic state, with no
electricity and gas, but with medieval banners, Stalin and all.

In his latest interview to Kommersant, Saakashvili already moved away
from the label "velvet revolution." "It is something else," he said.
"Maybe a flower revolution?" suggested a helpful author. Saakashvili
accepted the new definition.

Saakashvili's supporters, their brains full of Soros' populist
propaganda, are happy that their legitimate President has gotten the
Milosevic treatment - without an attempt to look at the map of the
former Yugoslavia, crumbled into small parts, some of them with a
still unclear status of statehood. Exactly such a future,
corresponding with the "divide and conquer" principle, is the most
probable future of Georgia under Saakashvili's rule. The specific
kind of business, advocated by George Soros across the globe,
benefits from unrecognized states with destroyed economies. Arms and
drug traders traditionally use such territories as their bases of
operations. Therefore, Saakashvili's easy victory and the state of
emergency in Abkhazia may be parts of the same plan.

Global organized crime will definitely thank Soros for his success in
Georgia's destruction. Meanwhile, the U.S. oil and gas corporations,
serving as tools in a more lucrative game, will express their
gratitude with injections of cash into the liberal empire-pushing
(Soros-funded) faction of the U.S. Democratic Party, on the eve of
the American Presidential elections. Why else was the coup d'état
needed before the scheduled change of power in Georgia, granting it,
under the cover of the "Fifth Rome," the fate of a "flower
province" - an economically doomed territory, whose citizens, instead
of going to the university, will survive by selling flowers in the
bazaars of Moscow and Istanbul?

[MJ]

The following may be of interest:

RADIO FREE EUROPE/RADIO LIBERTY, PRAGUE, CZECH REPUBLIC ___________________________________________________________
RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 7, No. 226, Part I, 3 December 2003

A daily report of developments in Eastern and Southeastern Europe, Russia, the Caucasus, Central Asia, Southwestern Asia, and the Middle East prepared by the staff of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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OPPOSITION INHERITS A COLLAPSING GEORGIAN STATE

By Richard Giragosian

The impressively peaceful transition of leadership in Georgia has generated an atmosphere of optimism that contrasts starkly with the normally tumultuous politics of the South Caucasus. The leaders of two of the main opposition groupings, the Burdjanadze-Democrats and Saakashvili-National Movement blocs, succeeded in channeling popular anger over the allegedly rigged outcome of the 2 November parliamentary ballot into demands for regime change that forced the resignation of President Eduard Shevardnadze. This success was greatly bolstered by the opposition's prudent reliance on peaceful confrontation. But the real tests for the new leaders, and for the country as a whole, lie in controlling the chaos and containing the collapse that currently define the Georgian state.

The fairly rapid fall of the Shevardnadze government came as
a surprise to many, including the opposition leaders themselves. Although Nino Burdjanadze and Mikhail Saakashvili emerged as the public faces of the movement against the Shevardnadze government, there was a much broader effort involved. The breadth and depth of the movement opposing the government also marked the graduation of the country's civil society from a potential to a powerful agent for change.

But the explanation for such a smooth and peaceful transition lies much deeper than any public victory of civil society. The fundamental reason for such an easy transition was actually the vacuum that has existed in the country for some time. The steady collapse of the Georgian state, with a significant loss of authority and an obvious failure to provide the most basic services to its people, provided a relatively unopposed path to power. This loss of state power has been so profound and so extensive that it also resulted in a serious decrease in legitimacy. The failure of the army or the security forces to support the president at the height of the crisis further demonstrated the extent of this collapse. And it was this loss of legitimacy that accelerated the resignation of the president and paved the way for a new leadership.

But the very same factors that aided in the swift transition pose the most serious obstacles for the new leaders. The sheer magnitude of the collapse of the state in recent years, as reflected in the recently revealed bankruptcy of the state budget, presents the next Georgian leadership with a set of limited options. The empty state coffers, both literally and figuratively, combined with the danger of raised public expectations, demonstrate the difficulty of assuming the economic and political legacy of Shevardnadze's governance.

The current transitional leadership, led by acting President Burdjanadze and presidential aspirant Saakashvili, is already threatened by one concrete manifestation of this loss of state authority. Specifically, this pressure comes from Adjarian leader Aslan Abashidze. Personifying the erosion of state power, Abashidze has built a clan-based fiefdom in his southern Georgian region, withholding contributions to the central budget and exercising an increasingly potent ability to project power on the national level. His Revival Union was the second-largest faction in the parliament elected in 1999.

Further bolstered by the presence of a Russian military base and control over a key Black Sea port, Abashidze is in a strong position to leverage his regional power into a decisive role in determining the outcome of the next stage of Georgia's transition. In recent days, Abashidze has closed his region's borders with the rest of Georgia, threatened publicly to boycott the coming presidential elections, and conducted a series of high-level meetings in Moscow with senior Russian officials. By assuming the role of "kingmaker," Abashidze seeks to highlight his ability to either stabilize or undermine the next government.

The power and influence of the Adjarian leader is
complemented by the roles of the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This steady devolution of power from the central Georgian government to the regions has been compounded by the external role of Russia, which has granted citizenship to much of these breakaway regions' populations. Meanwhile, in regions of southern Georgia, the majority Armenian and Azerbaijani populations are demanding greater autonomy. It is therefore becoming increasingly likely that recent events have only exacerbated the weakening of Tbilisi to the benefit of the regions.

This battle between the weakened central state and the emboldened regions could precipitate a return to the "warlordism" and violence of a decade ago. And although Georgia's geopolitical importance -- both as a "transit state" for the export of Caspian hydrocarbons and as a frontline state in the global "war on terrorism" -- remains constant, its current internal fragility could ultimately negate that strategic value. Thus the next stage in Georgia's difficult transition lies outside of the capital, but holds the key to the future of the country as a whole.


....................................

Richard Giragosian is a Washington-based analyst specializing in international relations, with a focus on security, politics, and economics.

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Copyright © 2003 RFE/RL, Inc.
All rights reserved.

_________________________________________________
RADIO FREE EUROPE/RADIO LIBERTY, PRAGUE, CZECH REPUBLIC

[PiggyWiggy]

Shvernadze running was not because his people did it...

Once again...the Caucusus have fallen to the Russians...

[THOTH]

MJ - thanks for the article/report - a god one..and soem food for thought...yes a great potential for warlordism and such...but certainly wasn't going to get any better with the staus quo...so why not optimism (perhaps Armenia vcould only hope for such)

And fro everyones info - the EIR is an arm of the Larouche organization - and thoguh they often have good/in depth info - not always presented elsewhere...they tend to the conspiratorial etc - so should be treated with some circumspection (as should any media report etc)...

[PiggyWiggy]

Have you been to Armenia THOTH?

[THOTH]

No Piggy I have not...would certainly like to one day...perhaps the 2007 Pan Armenian games will have an event for Beer drinking! ya think?

[PiggyWiggy]

Lol there is a beer festival in Armenia all the time...

Its the sport of the locals...

[Khazar]

Shvernadze running was not because his people did it...

Once again...the Caucusus have fallen to the Russians...

Falling to the Russians? Quite the opposite!!

Shevardnadze's fall was definitely influenced by some behind the scenes western (read: American) actions. On the eve of the elections, James Baker visited Tbilisi and told Shevardnadze he better make sure elections were democratic. The last time James Baker flew anywhere to do this was when he visited Milosevic right before he was thrown out.

Saakashvili is MARKEDLY more pro-west than Shevardnadze could ever pretend to be. The US just scored one in the 'new great game'.

[PiggyWiggy]

Uh huh...right...

So what makes you say such a thing?

[vava]

Piggy - have you even read the thread? If you're not going to bring anything to the topic, please don't post for the sake of posting. And stay on topic.

[Khazar]

Piggy, your posts are incoherent and inconsistent at best. Read the thread and at least pretend to have learned something new. We don't have to all agree. But if you don't agree with an argument, show us all why. That seems to be the accepted practice around here...

[Shahumyan]

Falling to the Russians? Quite the opposite!!

Shevardnadze's fall was definitely influenced by some behind the scenes western (read: American) actions. On the eve of the elections, James Baker visited Tbilisi and told Shevardnadze he better make sure elections were democratic. The last time James Baker flew anywhere to do this was when he visited Milosevic right before he was thrown out.

Saakashvili is MARKEDLY more pro-west than Shevardnadze could ever pretend to be. The US just scored one in the 'new great game'.

Khazar, you are quite correct in Georgia now being more pro-america as hard as it is to imagine (as well as pro-mafia now)

However, i'd disagree with u on the "new great game" point, this is no new game, this game started since the time when Capitalism was maturing, in the late 19th century. This is the imperialism of the ruling class, nothing qualititive has changed since then

[Khazar]

Shahumyan,

Capitalism ain't new there, that's true! ... but this game between Russia and the west (US) is. Georgia was firmly and unquestionably Russia's sphere of influence up until a few years ago. Now it's not a given anymore... strange ain't it?

Edited by Khazar, 05 December 2003 - 03:14 PM.

[Shahumyan]

i wouldnt say strange, is to be expected i guess.

However, this counter productive behaviour is the only thing georgia can do with its system, by playing 2 imperialists off with another

[koko]

did anyone notice how the name armenia was msising from the map of caucasus and georgia, during a broadcasting from the current elections in Georgia?

Everyone was there, turkey, azerbadjian, russia

but not armenia!

I had forgotten that they used to not mention armenia, for obvious political reasons, I had forgotten...

Edited by koko, 23 January 2004 - 08:31 PM.

[alpha]

We need leaders like Saakashvili - educated, charismatic and intelligent.

COMMENTARY


'Georgia Stands
On the Frontier
Of Freedom'

By MIKHAIL SAAKASHVILI

President Bush late last year spoke about the importance of democracy in a dangerous world: "The progress of liberty is a powerful trend. Yet, we also know that liberty, if not defended, can be lost."

Mere days after he uttered those words the Georgian nation rose up to defend our liberty and chart our own destiny. The Rose Revolution succeeded with great joy -- and without violence. It demonstrated that our roots and our identity are with the West. Far more than simply a product of Georgia's economic stagnation or the rampant corruption that strangled our future, our revolution was about a principle Americans understand very well: that government should be by the people and for the people. Our people demonstrated that, as in America, devotion to commitment to the values of liberal democracy reflects the overwhelming will of the people, not just the desires of a small elite.

In my first visit to the United States as president of Georgia, I am proud to express the appreciation of my citizens to President Bush and the American people for the support provided by the U.S. in our recent democratic upheaval. Georgians have now regained our freedom, defended our liberty, and we have fully embraced democracy, economic liberalization, and the rule of law.

The past three months witnessed hope triumph over despair and empowerment replace disenfranchisement. But we know the most difficult steps remain in front of us. Our national goals of full integration into Euro-Atlantic institutions will require years of diligent effort, consistent reforms, and patient progress. While we welcome and desire help from our friends abroad, we realize that success will depend on Georgian decisions and Georgian deeds.

We are combating the pervasive corruption that paralyzed our state and demoralized our people. We face difficult challenges in alleviating poverty, consolidating democracy, increasing economic activity, restructuring our government, reforming our military, and attracting foreign investment. We are heartened by offers of support from NATO and European Union members, and we are steadfast in our aspiration to become full members of these organizations at the earliest possible opportunity.


We have to re-establish Georgia's territorial integrity through peaceful resolution of conflict in Abkhazia. We would welcome an increased international and especially a U.S. role in the peace process. Guaranteeing Georgia's sovereignty will also require the elimination of abandoned Soviet arms stockpiles and, most importantly, the guarantee that the only foreign military forces in Georgia are those that have been invited. That is not the case today, with more than 3,000 Russian troops on sovereign Georgian soil. Too often in the past, Russia increased instability in our region, and its "peacekeeping" was rather a "piece-keeping" -- trying to retain pieces of the former empire.

After recent meetings with President Putin in Moscow, however, I am increasingly hopeful that Russia's current leadership recognizes that Georgian territorial integrity benefits the entire region. Indeed, if Russia is willing to adopt a modern, 21st-century approach to its relations with Georgia -- one grounded in respect for the sovereignty and dignity of the Georgian people -- I am sure we can enhance our cooperation and advance our mutual interests. In Georgia, we are ready for new dialogue; our goal is responsible and friendly relations with all of our neighbors. Russia is a very important trade partner for Georgia. We share historic and cultural and above all human ties and we need to normalize our political relations.

We enjoy good relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan. Our powerful NATO neighbor, Turkey, has helped us at critical moments. Together with Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria, we seek the creation of a secure and stable Black Sea regional security system that furthers our integration with the West.

Full integration with the West will aid Georgia, and it will contribute to the West's security and prosperity as well. By avoiding violence and disintegration during a difficult political transition, Georgia stands as a demonstration that real stability comes only with democracy. Georgia's geographic location and our strategic orientation enables us to work with the West in addressing 21st-century threats. We are on the front lines in combating global terrorism, trafficking of humans and illicit drugs, and proliferation of weapons -- both conventional and unconventional. We have already begun efforts to provide new energy resources to Europe and beyond with the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil and the South Caucasus gas pipelines. Opportunities will expand throughout our region as frozen conflicts are resolved and economic reforms take hold.

Georgia and the United States enjoy a strong partnership rooted in shared values and common interests. We appreciate the years of generous financial assistance provided by the United States. Its investment helped create the human and political infrastructure required for free and fair elections. Georgians were gratified to hear U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell, at my recent inauguration, reiterate President Bush's commitment to continue support for our reform and integration.

At my inauguration, I dedicated my presidency to the Georgian people: to all those who have suffered and even given their lives to preserve our freedom; to the children of Georgia whose future we must rebuild; and to the re-establishment of total territorial integrity throughout Georgia. In so doing, I am committed to leading Georgia back into the Euro-Atlantic fold -- to stand once again with our Western partners to build a better future.

Georgia is located on the frontier of freedom: at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Our past identity and our future destiny lie in the values and aspirations that unite the Euro-Atlantic community. Today, we are on our way home but we know our journey has only begun. The Georgian people are determined to complete this journey. I am confident that, working with our friends, we will reach our destination.

Mr. Saakashvili is president of Georgia.